PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/B-QGYVkzr-s_postprocess.srt

1
00:00:21,260 --> 00:00:25,140
بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم in the last meeting we

2
00:00:25,140 --> 00:00:28,800
talked about the active or passive managers or

3
00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:31,780
managements the main difference between active and

4
00:00:31,780 --> 00:00:34,320
passive regarding to what extent the market is

5
00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:37,360
efficient يعني الفرق بين ال .. ال active و ال

6
00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:41,500
passive لأي درجة ال .. ال market is efficient لأي

7
00:00:41,500 --> 00:00:46,540
درجة السوق المالي كفوء طبعا فال .. ال active

8
00:00:46,540 --> 00:00:49,820
managers think that the market is not efficient

9
00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:55,340
however the passive managers think the market is

10
00:00:55,340 --> 00:01:02,960
efficient يعني المضراءاللي بيعملوا دايما تغيير في

11
00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:06,900
ال portfolios تبعتهم بيعتقدوا ال market ليس كافر

12
00:01:06,900 --> 00:01:11,740
لكن ال .. ال .. ال managers المدرة .. المدرة اللي

13
00:01:11,740 --> 00:01:14,120
هم ما بيغيروا بال portfolios تبعتهم و passive

14
00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:17,660
بيكونوا سلبيين لتغيرات السوق بيعتقدوا ان ال market

15
00:01:17,660 --> 00:01:20,740
is .. is efficient and we don't need to rebalance

16
00:01:20,740 --> 00:01:23,380
our portfolios or to follow up the .. the

17
00:01:23,380 --> 00:01:26,380
information وما بيزامش كتير ان احنا ن .. نتابع

18
00:01:26,380 --> 00:01:30,000
المعلوماتmarket efficiency and portfolio

19
00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:34,300
management let's consider the relationship between

20
00:01:34,300 --> 00:01:37,560
the market efficiency and the portfolio management

21
00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:40,780
حكينا portfolio management اللي هو إدارة المحفظة

22
00:01:40,780 --> 00:01:45,840
يمكن مش واضحة عندكم what it means portfolio خلينا

23
00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:50,280
نفترض فرضية بسيطة لو كان أنا معايا 1000$ ألف دولار

24
00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:54,860
I have two options to invest all of them in one

25
00:01:54,860 --> 00:01:59,390
stock or one securityإنه أنا أستثمرهم كلهم في one

26
00:01:59,390 --> 00:02:03,970
security in one single stock يعني أستثمر كل ال one

27
00:02:03,970 --> 00:02:10,970
thousand dollar في سهم واحد the problem of this is

28
00:02:10,970 --> 00:02:15,750
not considering the importance of risk يعني لو

29
00:02:15,750 --> 00:02:24,380
كانت a ارتفعت is fine but when a is going downthis

30
00:02:24,380 --> 00:02:28,420
investor will lose his or her all money يعني ال

31
00:02:28,420 --> 00:02:33,930
investor هيخسر كل فلوسهbut if we invest this is if

32
00:02:33,930 --> 00:02:37,590
we invest in one single security إذا احنا بنستثمر

33
00:02:37,590 --> 00:02:41,490
في سهم واحد but in the portfolio management لكن

34
00:02:41,490 --> 00:02:46,290
المحافظة الاستثمارية build on the notion مبنية على

35
00:02:46,290 --> 00:02:51,190
فكرة that don't put your eggs on one basket يعني

36
00:02:51,190 --> 00:02:54,650
مانحطش البيض كله تبعنا في سلة واحدة so we can

37
00:02:54,650 --> 00:02:59,700
invest on a portfoliothis portfolio includes C, B,

38
00:03:00,340 --> 00:03:07,440
A, X, Y for instance if A is going down maybe X is

39
00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:12,540
going up, C is going up, Y going up and maybe B is

40
00:03:12,540 --> 00:03:17,970
going down so it means yes so it's likeis good for

41
00:03:17,970 --> 00:03:21,230
managing the risk إذا كويسة بتكون في managing the

42
00:03:21,230 --> 00:03:24,050
risk so this is the importance of the portfolio

43
00:03:24,050 --> 00:03:27,890
the portfolio the main importance of the portfolio

44
00:03:27,890 --> 00:03:32,090
is increase the interest rate increase the rate of

45
00:03:32,090 --> 00:03:34,950
return and decrease the risk يعني الهدف في النهاية

46
00:03:34,950 --> 00:03:37,570
تبع ال portfolio المحفظة أن أحنا نزيد العائد و

47
00:03:37,570 --> 00:03:41,970
نقلل المخاطر and in the chapter five and six we

48
00:03:41,970 --> 00:03:45,060
will see how we can manage thisفي chapter خمسة و

49
00:03:45,060 --> 00:03:48,280
ستة هنشوف كيف أنه احنا هنعمل managing لل portfolio

50
00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:55,240
okay so the thing is the link between the market

51
00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:58,880
efficiency and portfolio management enable the

52
00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:03,880
investor to diversify their securities بيقدروا

53
00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:07,620
ينوعوا فاحنا في ال portfolios احنا في عندنا C في

54
00:04:07,620 --> 00:04:10,820
عندنا D في عندنا A في عندنا X و عندنا Y لأنه ال

55
00:04:10,820 --> 00:04:14,020
market is efficientand we know the rate of return

56
00:04:14,020 --> 00:04:17,340
of C, we know the risk, we know the rate of return

57
00:04:17,340 --> 00:04:20,760
of Y, we know the risk, we know everything so this

58
00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:25,660
enable us to do diversification diversification it

59
00:04:25,660 --> 00:04:29,720
means تنويع بنقدر احنا ننوىnot only the

60
00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:33,440
diversification on the securities on the stocks مش

61
00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:36,420
بس ان احنا بنقدر نعمل تنويع بال stocks بالأسهم

62
00:04:36,420 --> 00:04:41,420
ممكن we can create another portfolio ممكن ان احنا

63
00:04:41,420 --> 00:04:46,380
نعمل portfolio أخرى includes stocks for instance A

64
00:04:46,380 --> 00:04:51,540
,B,R stocks we can include the treasury bills we

65
00:04:51,540 --> 00:04:56,840
can include bondsيعني ممكن احنا كمان ننوع بأنواع

66
00:04:56,840 --> 00:04:59,520
ال securities نعمل diversification نعمل تنويح حسب

67
00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:03,600
نوع ال securities ممكن احنا نحط أسهم و نحط سندات و

68
00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:08,020
نحط treasure bins و سندات خزينة we can also build

69
00:05:08,020 --> 00:05:10,880
another portfolio based on the geographic areas

70
00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:17,060
حسب التنويع الجغرافي for instance united states

71
00:05:17,060 --> 00:05:22,020
stocks ممكن نحط أسهم بتاعي على ال united states UK

72
00:05:22,020 --> 00:05:28,360
stocksAsian, Asians stock أسهم أساوية for instance

73
00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:33,620
نحط مثلا من Tokyo، من Japan، من دبي، من قطر، the

74
00:05:33,620 --> 00:05:40,640
king سعودي we can include other areas in our

75
00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:44,040
portfolios ممكن احنا نوّعالمحفظة الاستثمارية ممكن

76
00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:46,280
ناخد أسهم من الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية أسهم من

77
00:05:46,280 --> 00:05:50,460
الأوروبا أسهم من ال UK أسهم من السعودية من دبي من

78
00:05:50,460 --> 00:05:55,240
قطر من Tokyo من ماليزيا فهي بيسموها تنويع جيографي

79
00:05:55,240 --> 00:06:03,650
okayهذه هي الهيبوتسيز التسريحية التي تساعدنا في

80
00:06:03,650 --> 00:06:09,010
تدفع ميزاتنا باستخدام الأمن باستخدام المناطق

81
00:06:09,010 --> 00:06:13,510
الجغرافية باستخدام رغبات الأمن على سبيل المثال

82
00:06:13,510 --> 00:06:20,650
نستطيع إنشاء ميزاتنا باستخدام على سبيل المثال

83
00:06:20,650 --> 00:06:30,350
أساتذة رخية و أساتذة خفيةيعني ممكن احنا نعمل

84
00:06:30,350 --> 00:06:34,170
portfolio جزء منها assets فيها مخاطر و assets

85
00:06:34,170 --> 00:06:38,610
مافيهاش فيها مخاطر okay فزي ما انتوا شايفين ال

86
00:06:38,610 --> 00:06:43,290
investors are free to form up their portfolios ان

87
00:06:43,290 --> 00:06:47,990
المستثمرين هم أحرار في يكونوا ال portfolios تبعتهم

88
00:06:47,990 --> 00:06:52,350
ممكن يعملوا جغرافية تنمية جغرافية ممكن they can

89
00:06:52,350 --> 00:06:56,950
also diversify their portfolios based on the

90
00:06:56,950 --> 00:07:01,080
industrial levelممكن حسب ال industrial level ممكن

91
00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:05,480
هم يستثمروا مثلا في ال agriculture في الزراعة ممكن

92
00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:11,900
في ال tourist السياحة ممكن يستثمروا في ال industry

93
00:07:11,900 --> 00:07:16,640
الصناعة ممكن في ال telecommunication okay so they

94
00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:19,980
don't need to to channel their funds to a

95
00:07:19,980 --> 00:07:25,000
particular industry يعني مابيحتاجوش انه فقط يروحوا

96
00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:28,490
يستثمروا only in the telecommunicationbecause if

97
00:07:28,490 --> 00:07:31,690
they invest in only the telecommunication it means

98
00:07:31,690 --> 00:07:34,590
they only taking the risk of the telecommunication

99
00:07:34,590 --> 00:07:37,310
and if the telecommunication is going down all of

100
00:07:37,310 --> 00:07:39,930
their portfolios is going down so they need to

101
00:07:39,930 --> 00:07:42,830
diversify their portfolios based on the industrial

102
00:07:42,830 --> 00:07:46,830
level فعشان هيك هم محتاجين كمان يعملوا تنويع في

103
00:07:46,830 --> 00:07:49,610
المحفظة حسب ال industrial level يعني بيستثمروا في

104
00:07:49,610 --> 00:07:52,800
العقارات في ال real estatesممكن يستثمروا في ال

105
00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:55,800
currencies، في العملات، ممكن يستثمروا في السياحة،

106
00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:58,560
يستثمروا في الصناعة، في ال telecommunication، في

107
00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:01,640
.. في كل هذه يكونوا محافظ استثماريين، فإذا كانت ال

108
00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:04,720
telecommunication is going down ممكن يكون في other

109
00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:09,520
areas is going up، يعني areas أخرى بتطلع .. تطلع،

110
00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:13,080
فهذه بدأت أخد بعين الأعتبار، إذا هذه some .. some

111
00:08:13,080 --> 00:08:17,850
examples on how investorsforming up their

112
00:08:17,850 --> 00:08:21,370
portfolios كيف هم بيكونوا المحافظة الاستثمارية

113
00:08:21,370 --> 00:08:27,610
بناء على شو هم بدهمOkay ف the efficient markets

114
00:08:27,610 --> 00:08:32,390
helping them to forming a good diversified

115
00:08:32,390 --> 00:08:36,730
portfolio لتساعدهم بأنهم يحصلوا على تنويع ممتاز من

116
00:08:36,730 --> 00:08:39,670
المحافظة الاستثمارية and as I said the main

117
00:08:39,670 --> 00:08:43,310
objective of doing this is to reduce the risk يعني

118
00:08:43,310 --> 00:08:47,330
الهدف أنه احنا نخفض المخاطر اللي بتتحملها ال

119
00:08:47,330 --> 00:08:53,370
investorsThe second most important thing is

120
00:08:53,370 --> 00:08:57,990
appropriate risk level if we look at the

121
00:08:57,990 --> 00:09:03,890
portfolios the investors they try to assign which

122
00:09:03,890 --> 00:09:08,490
risk they can apply

123
00:09:08,490 --> 00:09:12,190
يعني بيقدروا من خلال ال portfolio يقولوا احنا بدنا

124
00:09:12,190 --> 00:09:16,680
مخاطرX فبيقدروا يعملوا ال portfolios تبعتهم

125
00:09:16,680 --> 00:09:21,080
according to the X risk يعني بتوفر لهم ال

126
00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:24,740
portfolio management انه بالظبط يقدروا يكونوا

127
00:09:24,740 --> 00:09:32,140
محافظ استثمارية with unknown risk يعني بيقدروا

128
00:09:32,140 --> 00:09:36,240
يعملوا محافظ استثمارية معروفة المخاطرOkay فالأسواق

129
00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:39,600
المالية بتساعدهم على الكلام هذا and they use

130
00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:42,060
advanced calculations بيستخدموا ال advanced

131
00:09:42,060 --> 00:09:47,080
calculations to do this يعني رياضيات متقدمة عشان

132
00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:50,220
يحصلوا على ال appropriate risk يعني مثلا خليني

133
00:09:50,220 --> 00:09:56,160
أعطيكم مثال لو أجاني investors شوفوا كيف مثلا

134
00:09:56,160 --> 00:10:03,650
خليني .. لو أجاني أنا channelinvestors from

135
00:10:03,650 --> 00:10:09,830
different origins يعني مستثمرين من من مختلف ال

136
00:10:09,830 --> 00:10:16,630
origins المصادر okay مثلا عندنا I one investor one

137
00:10:16,630 --> 00:10:22,990
I two investor two I three I four I five till I

138
00:10:22,990 --> 00:10:31,450
end for instance I one is old old manلو كان ال I

139
00:10:31,450 --> 00:10:35,630
one investor number one is old man رجل كبير and I

140
00:10:35,630 --> 00:10:42,770
two is old lady I five for instance is young with

141
00:10:42,770 --> 00:10:48,070
a secure job okay

142
00:10:48,070 --> 00:10:56,890
and I four is young ladywith a secure job as well

143
00:10:56,890 --> 00:11:00,690
so let's see how we can reflect appropriate level

144
00:11:00,690 --> 00:11:03,270
of risk according to the characteristics of the

145
00:11:03,270 --> 00:11:06,310
investors يعني خليني أشوف كيف احنا ممكن نعمل محفظة

146
00:11:06,310 --> 00:11:13,170
استثمارية حسب المخاطر بتاعة ال investors okay طيب

147
00:11:13,170 --> 00:11:15,330
هلأ لو نيجي احنا نيجي handle ال old men and old

148
00:11:15,330 --> 00:11:19,750
ladies هدول بتحمل المخاطر؟شو رأيكم؟ زلمة كبيرة و

149
00:11:19,750 --> 00:11:22,390
ستة كبيرة يعني retired people يعني خلينا نحكي هنا

150
00:11:22,390 --> 00:11:28,690
number .. I3 retired lady يعني ستة تقاعدت يعني

151
00:11:28,690 --> 00:11:33,810
كانت تشتغل و صار عندها تقاعد شو رأيكم؟ال old man و

152
00:11:33,810 --> 00:11:38,150
ال old lady و ال retired lady هدول بتحملوش مخاطر

153
00:11:38,150 --> 00:11:42,210
فإحنا إيش بنعملهم محفظة ناخدهم هدول مع بعض و

154
00:11:42,210 --> 00:11:46,130
بنعملهم محفظة with lower risk بنعملهم محفظ

155
00:11:46,130 --> 00:11:49,670
استثماري with lower risk طب إيش بنستثمرهم؟ إيش ال

156
00:11:49,670 --> 00:11:53,420
investment اللي فيه lower risk؟ال treasury bills،

157
00:11:53,420 --> 00:11:56,440
مظبوط، فيه lower risk، إيش فيه كمان؟ ال bonds،

158
00:11:56,440 --> 00:12:01,880
فيها lower risk، إيش كمان؟ عقد ثابت، إيش رأيكم؟ ال

159
00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:04,420
derivatives، نحطولهم في ال derivatives؟ نستثمرهم

160
00:12:04,420 --> 00:12:07,880
في ال derivatives؟ no, لأن ال derivatives ..high

161
00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:12,580
risk طيب وش كمان ممكن نعطيهم real estate عقارات

162
00:12:12,580 --> 00:12:15,500
استثمروا بالعقارات so this is the thing so we

163
00:12:15,500 --> 00:12:19,000
forming up this portfolio by using for instance

164
00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:21,980
treasury bills which is risk free maybe treasury

165
00:12:21,980 --> 00:12:28,160
bonds and real estate this is the example okay

166
00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:33,600
let's consider the I4 and I5 I5 young man and

167
00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:39,480
young lady with a secure jobصغار و عندهم شغلهم

168
00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:43,400
okay so they can bear more risk so they can bear

169
00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:46,280
more risk يعني ممكن يتحملوا or they hold they may

170
00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:50,540
hold more risk فممكن يتحملوا مخاطر أعلى so وين

171
00:12:50,540 --> 00:12:53,240
ممكن يستثمروا ممكن في ال stocks يستثمروا بال

172
00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:57,240
stocks ممكن بال currencies ممكن يستثمروا ممكن في

173
00:12:57,240 --> 00:13:02,800
ال derivatives okay that's it يعني شفنا احنا how

174
00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:09,000
we reflect thisإذن حسب the characteristics of the

175
00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:14,240
investors so we can forming up the appropriate

176
00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:18,040
portfolio with appropriate risk يعني ممكن إحنا

177
00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:22,500
ننشأ محافظة استثمارية حسب ال investors اللي سبعونا

178
00:13:22,500 --> 00:13:27,560
وحسب المخاطر اللي هم ممكن يتحملوها okay so this is

179
00:13:27,560 --> 00:13:32,660
the appropriate risk level the last one is tax

180
00:13:32,660 --> 00:13:36,890
considerationstax tax consideration okay let's

181
00:13:36,890 --> 00:13:39,370
focus on the importance of tax considerations

182
00:13:39,370 --> 00:13:44,950
خلّيني أركز على ال tax considerations يعني

183
00:13:44,950 --> 00:13:54,930
الاعتبارات الضريبية طيب

184
00:13:54,930 --> 00:14:03,980
خلّيني أخد مثال احنا عندنا stock Astock A بيوزع

185
00:14:03,980 --> 00:14:13,360
dividends، ال stock A نفسه ممكن

186
00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:19,040
ما يدفع dividends، no dividends، نشوف what is the

187
00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:21,860
difference when the stock A paying dividends and

188
00:14:21,860 --> 00:14:24,840
when the stock A paying no dividends يعني إيش

189
00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:28,560
الفرق بإنه الشركة تدفع أرباح .. تدفع توزيعات أرباح

190
00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:33,140
و ما تدفعش؟the dividends when the investors

191
00:14:33,140 --> 00:14:37,600
receiving the dividends they have to pay tax لازم

192
00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:45,700
يدفعوا دريبة and this tax is maybe 25% هبتصل this

193
00:14:45,700 --> 00:14:50,280
tax in the united states this the tax income is up

194
00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:54,520
to 25% and in the UK as wellيعني في الولايات

195
00:14:54,520 --> 00:14:59,600
المتحدة الأمريكية و ال .. و ال .. و ال UK بتصل ل

196
00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:05,480
25% فاللي مثلا لو احنا we receive 10$ as a

197
00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:11,540
dividends we have to pay 2.5$ as a tax okay this

198
00:15:11,540 --> 00:15:16,760
is the .. this is the problem in the opposite if a

199
00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:24,000
being no dividends it means there is no taxطيب

200
00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:26,660
what is the alternative of not paying the

201
00:15:26,660 --> 00:15:31,840
dividends؟ شو البديل أنه احنا ماددفعش نوزعش أرباح؟

202
00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:36,400
فضل ازاي

203
00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:41,860
صح كلامك بس ازاي انا احكي لك لما احنا ماددفعش

204
00:15:41,860 --> 00:15:45,840
الأرباح انا محتجزة بيصير في 110 earnings أرباح

205
00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:50,200
محتجزة اه بتكون قصود احنا الأصل هو عبارة عن قيمة

206
00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:57,970
الفرق من القصود او قيمتهبصير ايش؟بتزيد المكية

207
00:15:57,970 --> 00:16:02,470
بتزيد حصته بس هذا from the financial perspective

208
00:16:02,470 --> 00:16:05,770
this is from the corporate finance perspective هذا

209
00:16:05,770 --> 00:16:08,970
من غير نظر corporate finance but from the

210
00:16:08,970 --> 00:16:12,430
financial market perspective you are right but

211
00:16:12,430 --> 00:16:14,990
from the financial market perspective let's see

212
00:16:14,990 --> 00:16:19,050
what is going خلينا نشوف ال A بتدفع dividends فهم

213
00:16:19,050 --> 00:16:22,170
بدفعوا taxation فال investors اللي بتثمروا في A و

214
00:16:22,170 --> 00:16:28,010
اللي بتدفع dividendsفهيدفعوا 25% taxation if a

215
00:16:28,010 --> 00:16:31,310
decided not paying any dividends إذا هم قرروا

216
00:16:31,310 --> 00:16:34,550
مايدفعوش dividends خلينا نشوف لو أنتوا شفتوا ال

217
00:16:34,550 --> 00:16:40,550
assets و ال liabilities مظبوط؟فلما أنا ب .. بعمل

218
00:16:40,550 --> 00:16:46,310
no dividends فبعمل احتجاز للأرباح فبتروحها تحت ال

219
00:16:46,310 --> 00:16:49,730
capital as she said تحت ال capital بيصير في return

220
00:16:49,730 --> 00:16:53,910
earnings طيب let's ask you a question return

221
00:16:53,910 --> 00:16:57,250
earnings what is the importance of return earnings

222
00:16:57,250 --> 00:17:00,890
خلينا سؤال finance إيش أهمية ال return earnings

223
00:17:00,890 --> 00:17:05,370
ليش .. ليش الشركات بتعمل investment is for

224
00:17:05,370 --> 00:17:10,800
expansionexpansion يعني توسع صح ولا لأOkay فالان

225
00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:16,120
لما الشركات بتروح بتعمل keeping the profit it

226
00:17:16,120 --> 00:17:19,820
means return earnings it means in the future they

227
00:17:19,820 --> 00:17:22,440
may invest this money في المستقبل هم هيتستثمروا

228
00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:28,420
الأموال because they keep this the price of the

229
00:17:28,420 --> 00:17:32,380
stocks is going up لما الشركات تحتجز الأرباح

230
00:17:32,380 --> 00:17:36,060
فالمستثمرين مقتنعين ان هاي الشركات لما تحتجز

231
00:17:36,060 --> 00:17:38,520
الأرباح هتعمل expansion ايش يعني expansion يعني

232
00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:42,830
توسعطب لأنه بده تعمل expansion فبصير ال investors

233
00:17:42,830 --> 00:17:46,990
معنيين بالشركة هذه بتعرفوا أن الشركة هذه مثلا نيجي

234
00:17:46,990 --> 00:17:50,910
بالتل عاملة تحتجز أرباح و بتفكر أنه تروح تعمل مثلا

235
00:17:50,910 --> 00:17:55,390
a new investment فإيش اللي بيصير على ال price إيش

236
00:17:55,390 --> 00:17:58,490
ال price السعر؟ شو بيصير فيه؟ going up بصير ارتفاع

237
00:17:58,490 --> 00:18:05,070
طيب خليني عشان انا بتواصلكم فكرة معينة هلأ instead

238
00:18:05,070 --> 00:18:09,640
of paying dividends بدل ما احنا ندفع dividendswe

239
00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:14,980
are keeping the profits مظبوط keeping the profits

240
00:18:14,980 --> 00:18:20,740
اللي هو بانجو سان نسميها returned earnings اللي هو

241
00:18:20,740 --> 00:18:26,020
احتجاز أربعة طيب هلأ حكينا 25% اللي ندفعه على ال

242
00:18:26,020 --> 00:18:29,220
dividend tax لما نعمل keeping the profits مع

243
00:18:29,220 --> 00:18:34,340
الكلام we do expansion نعمل expansion توسع

244
00:18:36,580 --> 00:18:43,140
لما يعمل توسع ال investors think that the income

245
00:18:43,140 --> 00:18:46,720
will increase لما ال investors بيعرفوا أن الشركة

246
00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:50,460
هي هتعمل توسع الأربعة هتزيد صح ولا لأ؟because they

247
00:18:50,460 --> 00:18:53,620
think the income increase the price will going up

248
00:18:53,620 --> 00:18:58,500
السعر هيرتفع okay what this means from the

249
00:18:58,500 --> 00:19:01,300
financial market perspective هذا إيش معنى الكلام

250
00:19:01,300 --> 00:19:04,300
من وجهة نظر ال financial perspective ال financial

251
00:19:04,300 --> 00:19:09,700
perspective saying thatit means R the return on a

252
00:19:09,700 --> 00:19:13,900
particular asset R of A this is from mathematical

253
00:19:13,900 --> 00:19:16,740
perspective من وجهة نظر المحاسبية financial

254
00:19:16,740 --> 00:19:19,780
mathematical perspective من وجهة نظر الأمالية

255
00:19:19,780 --> 00:19:23,220
المحاسبية RA اللي هو السهم A اللي احنا حكينا فيه

256
00:19:23,220 --> 00:19:33,080
بساوي D one D plus B one minus B not what it means

257
00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:41,760
العائد بتاع RAهيساوي ال dividends على زائد pay one

258
00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:45,960
سعر البيع ناقص سعر الشراقة معنى الكلام أنه احنا

259
00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:50,540
العائد تبع السهم بنحصله من مكانين من ال dividends

260
00:19:50,540 --> 00:19:56,520
و من ال capital gains هذا بيسموها capital gains

261
00:19:56,520 --> 00:20:02,320
ليش سميناها capital gains لأنه احنا اشترينا السهم

262
00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:06,480
على سعرو لما صار في keeping the profit هنبيعه على

263
00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:12,020
سعر أعلى okay طب لنفترض احنا هنا حكينا ال tax high

264
00:20:12,020 --> 00:20:15,840
ال tax في حالة ال dividends is greater than the

265
00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:18,960
capital gains ال tax في حالة ال dividends is

266
00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:22,100
greater than the capital gains الحكومة الأمريكية و

267
00:20:22,100 --> 00:20:26,220
البريطانية و حتى اللي عندنا و ال local governments

268
00:20:26,220 --> 00:20:30,800
و الحكومات المحلية عندنا بتفرض ضرائب أعلى على ال

269
00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:36,040
dividendsفبصير إنه الاهتمام بال capital gains أكتر

270
00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:42,120
من اهتمام بال dividends okay so the thing is some

271
00:20:42,120 --> 00:20:48,020
investors they prefer to take dividends but the

272
00:20:48,020 --> 00:20:54,520
problem is paying more tax بعض المستثمرينبيفضلوا

273
00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:57,660
ال dividends لكن المشكلة إيش في ال dividends تدفع

274
00:20:57,660 --> 00:21:01,780
دريبة عالية they have to do this يعني نرجع لمثالنا

275
00:21:01,780 --> 00:21:06,740
إذا كانت راجل كبير و ست كبيرة بفضلوش ال capital

276
00:21:06,740 --> 00:21:10,360
gains بفضلوش إن الشركات تروح تترسم للأربعة واحدة

277
00:21:10,360 --> 00:21:15,120
بعدها بفضلوا كل شهرين تلاتة يجي لهم dividends لكن

278
00:21:15,120 --> 00:21:19,860
المشكلة هذه they have to pay high tax لكن بواجهوا

279
00:21:19,860 --> 00:21:21,560
مشكلة إنه بدفعوا high tax

280
00:21:24,390 --> 00:21:28,350
people they prefer the capital gains they don't

281
00:21:28,350 --> 00:21:33,850
consider the risk ماباهتموش بالضريبة they want to

282
00:21:33,850 --> 00:21:37,750
avoid the high tax الناس اللي بيفضلوا الأرباح

283
00:21:37,750 --> 00:21:42,870
المحتجزة طبعا في الحالة هذه هيتجنبوا دفع درائب

284
00:21:42,870 --> 00:21:48,920
عالية فاحنا أمام two synergiesthe tax on the

285
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:52,960
dividends is higher than the capital gains الأرباح

286
00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:56,540
الرقسمالية so some investors prefer the dividends

287
00:21:56,540 --> 00:22:02,340
however it pay high tax other investors prefer the

288
00:22:02,340 --> 00:22:07,920
.. the capital gains and paying no tax طب التنين

289
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:11,360
بيه مشكلة على فكرة التنين إيه إيش بيه مشكلة مشكلة

290
00:22:11,360 --> 00:22:14,320
هذا معروفة أنه بي .. أنه الدرائب طب مشكلة هذا وين؟

291
00:22:16,580 --> 00:22:20,860
time yes right the time ايش risk لأنه there is no

292
00:22:20,860 --> 00:22:24,320
guarantee the price will go up فش ضمان الأسعار

293
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:28,120
ترتفع لفوق صحيح they are keeping the profits is

294
00:22:28,120 --> 00:22:31,180
right they are keeping the profits but it is not

295
00:22:31,180 --> 00:22:35,300
right the prices will go up يعني زي مثلا مثال

296
00:22:35,300 --> 00:22:38,800
بنقول الحج والحجة اللي هو old man old man old lady

297
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:43,880
they consider one bird in your hand is more

298
00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:47,640
preferable than ten birds on the treeيعني عصفور

299
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:51,120
بيدك أحسن من عشر ع الشجرة ده ال thing in this way

300
00:22:51,120 --> 00:22:55,420
بقى young people الناس الصغار في السن اللي زيكو

301
00:22:55,420 --> 00:23:00,240
طبعا they have difference بيقول لأ why I don't

302
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,240
need money for instance now so خلي العشر ع الشجرة

303
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:07,640
أحسن ما يكونوا في one bird in my hand because ten

304
00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:11,900
trees .. ten birds on the tree إيش بيصير? ten

305
00:23:11,900 --> 00:23:17,650
birds on the trees may call otherbears to be in

306
00:23:17,650 --> 00:23:21,410
the tree but if the bird is in your hands, no

307
00:23:21,410 --> 00:23:25,130
additional birds will be in your hands يعني لما

308
00:23:25,130 --> 00:23:28,950
تخلوا العشر على الشجرة, they calling more birds

309
00:23:28,950 --> 00:23:32,710
هيستدعوا طيور أكتر تيجي على الشجرة لكن لما يكون

310
00:23:32,710 --> 00:23:37,610
الطير بيدك في حد هييجي و that's it يعني

311
00:23:40,050 --> 00:23:44,630
الفكرة هان أنه ال capital gains is higher risk

312
00:23:44,630 --> 00:23:47,810
than the dividends, the dividends is guaranteed,

313
00:23:48,130 --> 00:23:50,190
there is a dividends, but the problem in the

314
00:23:50,190 --> 00:23:54,890
dividends, there is high tax okay, so the

315
00:23:54,890 --> 00:23:57,590
portfolios, the portfolio management is helping us

316
00:23:57,590 --> 00:24:00,790
to state whether we prefer the tax or we avoid the

317
00:24:00,790 --> 00:24:04,990
tax, some people or some investors are between the

318
00:24:04,990 --> 00:24:08,620
two scenariosبعض الناس بال two scenarios ممكن

319
00:24:08,620 --> 00:24:12,080
بياخدوا ال portfolios تبعتهم stocks بتعمل

320
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:16,120
dividends و stocks no dividends يعني بياخدوا أسهم

321
00:24:16,120 --> 00:24:19,280
بتعمل dividends و أسهم مابتعملش dividends هدول

322
00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:28,900
بيكونوا أيش يعني متوسط المخاطر تمام؟ okayيعني لو

323
00:24:28,900 --> 00:24:34,600
احنا قررنا مثلا ladies بال in her 35 to 40 ست كانت

324
00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:40,120
من 35 لل40 مع راجل من 35 لل40 طبعا ال ladies عادة

325
00:24:40,120 --> 00:24:44,920
بيكونوا تحملوا المخاطر أقل فهم ممكن يختاروا

326
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:49,360
dividends مع capital gains ال mens تحملهم للمخاطر

327
00:24:49,360 --> 00:24:53,260
أعلى شوية فممكن ان هم to go to the capital gains

328
00:24:53,260 --> 00:24:55,720
انه يروحوا لل capital gains more than the

329
00:24:55,720 --> 00:25:01,350
dividends okayهذا المثال ممكن احنا نعطيه طبعا هذا

330
00:25:01,350 --> 00:25:04,690
لا يعني ان ال ladies they took whole dress لأ في

331
00:25:04,690 --> 00:25:08,610
ناس ممكن يتحمل بس احنا بنحكي in majority in the

332
00:25:08,610 --> 00:25:15,010
majority اه بال majority يعني ان هم جداش بتحمله

333
00:25:15,010 --> 00:25:19,290
المخاطر ممكن رجال كمان conservative كونوا طبعا

334
00:25:19,290 --> 00:25:22,610
احنا بنحكي بشكل عام ايش بيصير بالاسواق المالية

335
00:25:22,610 --> 00:25:23,470
okay

336
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:36,020
طيب أي سؤال any question about the free

337
00:25:36,020 --> 00:25:39,200
diversification appropriate risk level, tax

338
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:45,200
considerations؟ no questions؟ أه؟ في حد عنده سؤال؟

339
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:51,260
okay طيب resource allocations توزيع الموارد أو

340
00:25:51,260 --> 00:25:52,780
تخصيص الموارد

341
00:25:59,910 --> 00:26:02,270
طيب ال market .. we still talking about the

342
00:26:02,270 --> 00:26:05,010
implications of market efficiency احنا مازالنا

343
00:26:05,010 --> 00:26:08,230
بنحكي عن أثر ال market efficiency on portfolio

344
00:26:08,230 --> 00:26:12,450
management على إدارة المحافظة الاستثمارية if you

345
00:26:12,450 --> 00:26:16,490
think the market is inefficient we cannot

346
00:26:16,490 --> 00:26:20,290
efficiently allocate our resources يعني إذا احنا

347
00:26:20,290 --> 00:26:24,530
بنعتقد إن السوق غير كفوء بيكون احنا من الصعوبة إن

348
00:26:24,530 --> 00:26:29,200
احنا نعمل تخصيص الموارد تبعتناbecause the market

349
00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:33,420
is inefficient فبصير في miss pricing فبتكون الأسهم

350
00:26:33,420 --> 00:26:36,540
الغالية هتكون رخيصة و الأسهم الرخيصة هتكون غالية

351
00:26:36,540 --> 00:26:41,260
that's it يعني if the market is inefficient okay

352
00:26:42,550 --> 00:26:45,790
فإذا كان السوق المالي كفو يعني لو أجينا احنا مثلا

353
00:26:45,790 --> 00:26:48,870
على ال mobile إذا كان السوق المالي كفو هذا سعره

354
00:26:48,870 --> 00:26:51,610
مثلا مائة دولار so the price is مائة دولار one

355
00:26:51,610 --> 00:26:55,430
hundred dollar if the market is inefficient this

356
00:26:55,430 --> 00:26:59,610
could be overpriced or could be underpriced ممكن

357
00:26:59,610 --> 00:27:02,570
يكون أقل من سعره ممكن يكون أعلى من سعره يعني if

358
00:27:02,570 --> 00:27:04,730
this one hundred dollar it could be one hundred

359
00:27:04,730 --> 00:27:07,510
fifty if the market is inefficient and in this

360
00:27:07,510 --> 00:27:12,790
case it is overpricedif it is fifty dollar it

361
00:27:12,790 --> 00:27:18,470
means it is under priced and this is misleading if

362
00:27:18,470 --> 00:27:21,170
the market is inefficient buying and selling these

363
00:27:21,170 --> 00:27:25,510
mobile phones is misleading يعني ممكن تعمل

364
00:27:25,510 --> 00:27:31,310
misleading يعني إيش misleading إنه مايستطيعوش

365
00:27:31,310 --> 00:27:34,310
ال investors to take the right decision okay

366
00:27:39,170 --> 00:27:42,450
ف the implications of .. if markets were

367
00:27:42,450 --> 00:27:47,250
inefficient إذا كان الأسواق ليست كفؤة resources

368
00:27:47,250 --> 00:27:51,810
would be systematically misallocated هنروح نعمل

369
00:27:51,810 --> 00:27:54,670
misallocation لل .. نروح .. نروح نستثمر في أشياء

370
00:27:54,670 --> 00:27:57,350
غالية هي المفروض تكون رخيصة و أشياء رخيصة المفروض

371
00:27:57,350 --> 00:28:01,230
تكون غالية so this is the things misallocation or

372
00:28:01,230 --> 00:28:05,010
misleading as .. as I explained fame with

373
00:28:05,010 --> 00:28:07,310
overvalued securities can raise capital too

374
00:28:07,310 --> 00:28:13,780
cheaplyيعني الشركات اللي أسعارها مغالا فيها ممكن

375
00:28:13,780 --> 00:28:20,560
تحصل على تمويل رخيص و العكس شركات undervalued أقل

376
00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:25,280
من قيمتها الحقيقية may have to pass up profitable

377
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:27,700
opportunities because cost of capital is too high

378
00:28:27,700 --> 00:28:30,980
ممكن أنه ماتحصلش على تمويل لأنه ال cost of capital

379
00:28:30,980 --> 00:28:37,260
تكليف رأس المال بتكون عالية جدا okay so this is

380
00:28:37,260 --> 00:28:41,630
importantف resource allocation if the market is

381
00:28:41,630 --> 00:28:44,730
efficient we can effectively allocate our

382
00:28:44,730 --> 00:28:49,170
resources but the problem efficient market does

383
00:28:49,170 --> 00:28:53,230
not mean perfect for sides markets مابتانش كل شي

384
00:28:53,230 --> 00:28:57,170
تمام 100% اعطيكوا مثال يعني لا يعني انه if the

385
00:28:57,170 --> 00:29:01,150
market is efficient it means we have a proper

386
00:29:01,150 --> 00:29:05,970
asset allocation ده يعني انه السوق المالي كافه انه

387
00:29:05,970 --> 00:29:11,150
في عندنا توزيع صحfor instance لو أنا جبتلكم car

388
00:29:11,150 --> 00:29:18,430
2013 and we have two people سيارة 2013 efficient

389
00:29:18,430 --> 00:29:22,250
خدنا نقول مثلا لموزين و جينا ال two people we have

390
00:29:22,250 --> 00:29:26,150
a good driver and we have a bad driver and we said

391
00:29:26,150 --> 00:29:30,190
to the bad driver take the keys and try it يعني

392
00:29:30,190 --> 00:29:33,290
خدها المفاتيح و روح جربها maybe after one minute

393
00:29:33,290 --> 00:29:37,850
come back with a smashed carممكن بعد دقيقة يرجعلنا

394
00:29:37,850 --> 00:29:42,790
و السيارة مكسرة and we may talk to the second

395
00:29:42,790 --> 00:29:45,750
driver which is an excellent driver with a good

396
00:29:45,750 --> 00:29:50,170
profile he can use it and get it back with

397
00:29:50,170 --> 00:29:54,260
excellent conditionلذا لدينا اتفاقين اثنين،

398
00:29:54,260 --> 00:29:59,760
المشكلة في الناس و كيف يستخدموا المصادر، السيارة

399
00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:04,060
مفيدة، كل شيء بخير، لكن المشكلة في الناس و كيف

400
00:30:04,060 --> 00:30:09,190
يستخدموا المصادرyou have good experience with a

401
00:30:09,190 --> 00:30:11,310
good knowledge with the .. with the .. with a good

402
00:30:11,310 --> 00:30:14,650
profile you can efficiently and effectively manage

403
00:30:14,650 --> 00:30:18,530
the portfolios if you don't have this knowledge it

404
00:30:18,530 --> 00:30:22,990
means you cannot do this هذه المشكلة efficient

405
00:30:22,990 --> 00:30:25,450
market does not mean perfect foresight markets

406
00:30:25,450 --> 00:30:28,210
because it depends on how people foresight how

407
00:30:28,210 --> 00:30:32,050
they understand the portfolios يعني لو احنا جيبنا

408
00:30:32,050 --> 00:30:36,190
ال laptop هذا و حكينا للناس خدوا صمموه لشغلات على

409
00:30:36,190 --> 00:30:41,340
ال laptopممكن ناس بعرفوه و ناس مابيعرفوش so it

410
00:30:41,340 --> 00:30:43,540
depends يعني ما تفكروا ان والله احنا خدنا

411
00:30:43,540 --> 00:30:46,620
portfolio management و investments و we can do

412
00:30:46,620 --> 00:30:51,440
this so you should have skills to do the .. the

413
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:57,020
management .. the portfolio management okay نحكي

414
00:30:57,020 --> 00:31:02,410
عن event studiesاللقاء الجاى بيكون نقف عند ال

415
00:31:02,410 --> 00:31:07,070
event studies اللقاء الجاى is the last meeting

416
00:31:07,070 --> 00:31:11,770
talking about the chapter four