News Finding: This prompts a commensurate anomaly east of the Philippine Islands, which, in turn, results in a strengthening or weakening of the jet stream in the Northern Hemisphere, having a direct influence on the amount of rain that falls on California between November and March.
Paper Finding: Analysis also shows an amplification of this new teleconnection over the past four decades.
News Context: "Knowing how much rain to expect in the coming winter is crucial for the economy, water security and ecosystem management of the region." This prompts a commensurate anomaly east of the Philippine Islands, which, in turn, results in a strengthening or weakening of the jet stream in the Northern Hemisphere, having a direct influence on the amount of rain that falls on California between November and March. UCI research gives resource managers a new tool for predicting winter rainfall months in advance.
Paper Context: Here we report evidence that late-summer sea surface temperature and geopotential height anomalies close to New Zealand exhibit higher correlation with SWUS winter precipitation than ENSO, enhancing the potential for earlier and more accurate prediction. Analysis also shows an amplification of this new teleconnection over the past four decades. Our work highlights the need to understand the dynamic nature of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system in a changing climate for improving future predictions of regional precipitation.