index,sentence,year,label,orig_index
122,Broad equity price indexes fell sharply over the intermeeting period on net.,2011,2,119
275,"For example, although a number of features of Brazilian law promote the independence of the nation's central bank, the bank's de facto independence may be limited by the power of the president to remove members of the Monetary Policy Committee.",2004,2,270
632,"On balance, most participants still expected inflation to moderate later this year and in 2009.",2005,2,599
486,"Low readings on overall and core consumer price inflation in recent months, as well as the weakened economic outlook, kept near-term inflation expectations reported in surveys well below their high levels in mid-2008.",2008,0,465
74,But I want to emphasize that we do have a commitment to raising inflation to 2 percent.,2011,0,73
1107,"With inflation low and resource use slack, the Committee saw no need for tightening policy in the near future.",1999,2,1046
749,The Outlook for Economic ActivityThe midpoint of the range of projections for real GDP growth declines noticeably from about 2-1/2 percent for 2007 to roughly 2 percent in 2008; then it returns to about 2-1/2 percent in 2009 and 2010.,2020,2,727
610,"Nonetheless, participants viewed the housing situation and its potential further effect on employment, income, and wealth as one of the major sources of downside risk to the economic outlook.",2019,0,579
40,"And then, what the statement emphasizes, and this is the same language we used in December and January, we used the language especially if inflation is running below our 2 percent objective.",2017,0,40
703,"Some of the increase in sentiment and changes in asset prices could be tied to expectations of more expansive fiscal policy, another upside risk.",2017,0,682
683,"Sargent, T. ""Discussion of 'Policy Rules for Open Economics' by Lawrence Ball,"" in J.B. Taylor, ed., Monetary Policy Rules.",2020,2,662
638,Our new statement explicitly acknowledges the challenges posed by the proximity of interest rates to the effective lower bound.,2002,1,617
879,"The behavior of the monetary aggregates will continue to be evaluated in the light of progress toward price level stability, movements in their velocities, and developments in the economy and financial markets.",2020,2,830
163,"I’m just saying, that, that is what fiscal policy can do that, really, monetary policy can’t do—is, is invest in the future productive capacity of the economy, raise potential growth.",2020,2,158
501,"Many observed, however, that a favorable outcome to the hostilities in the Middle East and lower oil prices in line with quotations in futures markets should generate a positive response in equity markets, boost consumer sentiment, and foster a rebound in consumer spending as the year progressed.",2002,1,480
537,Lower potential growth implies lower returns and therefore lower rates.,2021,0,519
487,"Indeed, the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee determined in July that the recession that began in March of last year ended in April, making it not only the deepest recession on record, but also the briefest.2 The recovery that commenced in the summer of 2020 was quite robust, and, with one quarter to go, GDP growth in 2021 is projected by the Fed and many outside forecasters to be the fastest since 1983.",2005,1,471
779,"Some business contacts indicated that wage and price pressures were subdued; however, in one District, contacts pointed to rising wage pressures and labor shortages.",2018,1,736
728,"That said, the data also indicate that a surge in COVID-19 cases in the summer and supply-chain bottlenecks held back economic activity in the third quarter.",2007,0,706
381,"If we adjust the 6.7 percent headline unemployment rate for the decline in participation since February and the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimate of misclassification, the unemployment rate would be 10 percent, similar to the peak following the Global Financial Crisis.",2019,1,370
451,"Inflation was still expected to be somewhat higher this year than last year, largely reflecting an upturn in the prices for food and non-energy imports.",2020,1,430
52,"And, and that’s why we have adopted the flexible average inflation-targeting framework.",2015,0,51
511,"It is important to recognize the importance of moving interest rates in response to changing conditions and the potential for destabilizing policy when policy resists the natural tendency for interest rates to rise during cyclical upswings, especially when the economy is near its potential.",1999,1,494
514,"most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations were little changed, on balance, in recent months.",2013,2,490
776,"Similarly, measures of underlying inflation continued to be somewhat low relative to levels seen as consistent with the dual mandate over the longer run.",2003,2,733
141,"But I continue to believe that the underlying rate inflation in the U.S. economy is hovering close to our 2 percent longer-run objective and, thus, that the unwelcome surge in inflation this year, once these relative price adjustments are complete and bottlenecks have unclogged, will in the end prove to be largely transitory.",2000,2,139
263,"Fiscal policy, on the other hand, can be an instrument of growth policy, through its effect on national saving via the structural budget deficit, through incentive effects on work, saving and investment via tax rates and tax structure, and through public investment in human capital and physical infrastructure.",1996,0,258
1038,"They generally judged that risks to the growth outlook, including strains in global financial markets, were significant and tilted to the downside",1996,0,980
310,"Further evidence that firms still have not fully adapted their operations to the latest state of technology also is provided in a recent study4 that attempts to measure the ""technological gap""--that is, the difference between the productivity of leading-edge capital and the average productivity embodied in the current capital stock.",2021,2,302
146,"Inflation has continued to run below our longer-run objective, in part reflecting lower energy prices.",2012,0,141
786,"Some members nonetheless referred to indications of increasing expenditures for various categories of high-tech equipment and software, and they noted that impetus to demand from a positive outcome in the war against Iraq should have a favorable effect on business capital spending, especially if it were accompanied by a rally in the stock market.",2013,2,743
166,"Last year, we had 1.9 percent productivity, which is much higher.",2012,0,161
312,"Furthermore, policymakers hoped that additional tools at their disposal--so-called incomes policies enforced by “jawboning,” guideposts, and price and wage controls--were ready to combat and control any resulting upcreep in inflation with minimal macroeconomic cost.",1998,1,304
232,"Household mortgage debt was expected to expand at a reduced rate in the fourth quarter, reflecting softer home prices and declining home sales, as well as a tightening in credit conditions for some borrowers.",2001,0,223
935,"To this end, the new statement conveys the Committee's judgment that, in order to anchor expectations at the 2 percent level consistent with price stability, it ""seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time,"" and—in the same sentence—that therefore ""following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.""",2007,0,906
35,"And that, I think, does raise, raise the risk that high inflation will be more persistent.",2022,1,35
1085,"While favorable financing would help to sustain the housing sector, members anticipated that any further impetus to growth from that sector was likely to be limited.",2002,2,1025
452,"Instead, an upturn in foreign economic activity would depend more on recovery in the United States.",2020,2,431
712,Such departures of expectations from perfect rationality can be an important source of observed inflation dynamics.,2004,2,691
794,The high oil prices would themselves cut into demand growth and tend to stabilize the system.,1997,1,771
263,There was a lot of pent-up demand.,2015,2,258
892,"This observation raises the question of why, in some cases, the putative productivity benefits of investments in new technologies do not occur until years after those investments are made.",2006,2,865
1078,"When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. """,2009,1,1018
354,"In that regard, the prospective strength of demand pressures and related outlook for productivity were subject to a wide range of uncertainty, and there were reasons to believe that economic growth could well slow without any adjustment to policy.",1997,0,339
214,So we do say that risks to the financial system—we say in our longer-run statement of goals and monetary policy strategy that risks to the financial system that could prevent us from achieving our goals are something that we do take into consideration.,2021,2,209
788,The first question is whether the degree of easing implemented in response to financial market turbulence and the abrupt downward revision in the forecast should be reassessed in light of the subsequent improvement in financial conditions and the continued robustness of domestic demand.,2004,1,765
36,And that’s because of this misalignment between supply and demand.,2022,2,36
1057,Those indicators were mixed regarding the pace of economic activity within the manufacturing sector.,2000,2,997
24,"A particular phenomenon that touches on all these issues is the movement of asset prices, especially the prices of equities and residential real estate.",2004,2,23
695,"So, up until the first week of October 2021, the story of high inflation being temporary was holding up, and the labor market improvements had slowed but were continuing.",2022,2,674
204,"Fiscal policy was expected to be somewhat less expansionary next year, though still an important contributor to economic growth.",2002,2,195
211,"So the—the sooner we get the virus under control, the sooner people can regain that confidence and regain their economic activity.",2021,2,206
201,"Financial factors also seemed likely on balance to accommodate continuing growth in consumer spending, in particular the marked increases that had occurred in the value of stock holdings and a still-ample availability of credit to most households.",2014,2,192
951,"Under these circumstances, policymakers must be cognizant of the shortcomings of our published price indexes to avoid misguided actions that will provoke unintended consequences.",2000,2,922
291,We have not seen wage growth pick up.,2020,2,284
566,"Moreover, it was difficult to anticipate how much the higher food and energy prices might affect inflation expectations and wage demands and thereby potentially become embedded more generally in the price structure.",2019,1,537
266,"Flexible inflation averaging would bring some of the benefits of a formal average-inflation-targeting rule, but it could be more robust and simpler to communicate and implement.",1996,2,261
1021,"These included a decline in the cost of business capital, a recent rise in orders and backlogs of nondefense capital goods, persisting gains in productivity that undoubtedly pointed to growing profit opportunities, progress in strengthening business balance sheets, and reduced capital overhangs.",2020,1,963
311,"Furthermore, in the latest report, FOMC participants indicated that the current degree of uncertainty about GDP growth is even higher than the typical level of uncertainty over the past two decades.",1998,2,303
106,"For example, one—in the long-run, the size of the balance sheet is going to depend on the public’s demand for our liabilities, including currency and reserves.",2021,2,102
736,"Recent declines in payroll employment and industrial production, while still sizable, were smaller than those registered earlier in 2009.",2007,0,697
76,"And, of course, despite the improvements seen in the May jobs report, the unemployment rate, at 13.3 percent, remains historically high.",2006,0,75
250,"However, equity prices subsequently retraced some of the earlier declines as concerns about trade policy seemed to ease and corporate earnings reports for the first quarter of 2018 generally came in stronger than expected.",2007,2,241
51,"Although inflation remained remarkably subdued and any increase in inflationary pressures likely would tend to emerge only slowly, the strength in demand had developed against the backdrop of financial conditions that, broadly considered, were not substantially different from those now prevailing.",2005,0,51
164,"But strong demand and a very tight labor market have also contributed to inflation pressures, and the FOMC can help alleviate those pressures by removing the extraordinary monetary policy accommodation that is no longer needed.",1997,1,162
528,"Measures of longer-term inflation expectations edged up in early January, but remained lower than they had been in all but the last few weeks of 2008.",2006,1,499
124,I would describe some measures of wage growth as having moved up some.,2015,2,119
129,"If we don’t see the improvement that’s projected in the baseline outlook, that the June 18, 2014 opposite would be true and the pace of the timing and pace of interest rate increases would be Chair Yellen’s Press Conference FINAL later and more gradual.",2016,2,124
268,"These measures, along with our strong guidance on interest rates and on our balance sheet, will ensure that monetary policy will continue to support the economy until the recovery is complete.",2022,0,263
539,Many have observed the rise in the real federal funds rate to a level well above its historical average and concluded that monetary policy is currently restrictive.,2021,1,521
420,"In fact, applying a formal regression analysis to the full sample from 1989 to 2002, we found a number fairly close to this one, namely, a stock price multiplier for monetary policy of about 4.7.",2022,2,407
407,"In these circumstances, an easing at some point of current uncertainties and strengthening confidence should induce inventory rebuilding, with positive implications, at least for a time, for the expansion of economic activity.",2022,0,391
573,"Moreover, survey data on labor market attitudes of both consumers and businesses had not signaled a significant deterioration in employment prospects.",2011,2,543
898,"and special factors, including liquidity risk premiums, that might be influencing the pricing of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and inflation derivatives.",2009,2,849
38,"Additionally, can one make any other generalizations concerning recessions that follow asset-price booms and busts and how they differ from other recessions?",2001,2,37
978,"What I have elsewhere referred to as ""currency competition"" may be a driving force behind these changes in inflation outcomes and expectations and may be reflected in low nominal long-term interest rates and the flattening of yield curves.5 I’d like to briefly review what I mean by currency competition.",2022,0,949
551,"Members who preferred to retain an asymmetrical directive agreed that, although there was little likelihood of a further policy change during the intermeeting period, such a directive was the best way to convey their concerns about the risks of rising inflation and the potential need for policy tightening over time.",1997,1,522
156,"But in our new century, the simple notion of price has turned decidedly ambiguous.",2000,2,154
643,One member anticipated little if any effect on economic growth and unemployment and did not agree that the outlook for economic activity and inflation called for further policy accommodation.,1999,2,610
522,"Measures of core inflation remained much more subdued, although they also moved up in some countries.",2013,0,494
956,"The recent depreciation of the dollar, while perhaps putting some upward pressure on prices, would damp the deterioration in net U. S. exports.",2011,1,903
598,"Nonetheless, the leveling off in that disturbing trend is an encouraging sign of what we can achieve if we can maintain strong and flexible labor markets accompanied by low inflation.",2003,1,579
827,"Survey-based measures of longer-run inflation expectations were little changed, on balance, in recent months,",2000,2,780
816,"Stock prices in the basic materials and industrial sectors underperformed the broader market, reportedly reflecting an increase in trade tensions with China.",2002,2,771
1128,"Yields on longer-term inflation-indexed Treasury securities, which are relatively illiquid, rose more sharply than did those on nominal securities.",2013,1,1066
716,Table 2 Distribution of Employment and of Displaced Workers by Industry Category Industry Employment Displaced Workers Restructuring 23.1 42.2 Nonrestructuring 76.9 57.8 Total 100 100 Source: Displaced Worker Supplement to the CPS.,2005,2,695
594,"Mr. Plosser noted that the Committee could not afford to wait until there was clear evidence that inflation expectations were no longer anchored, as by then it would be too late to prevent a further increase in inflation pressures.",2005,1,564
659,Productivity and the equilibrium real interest rate.,2001,2,638
639,"Our test for this step was making ""substantial further progress"" toward our employment and inflation goals.",1997,2,618
215,"So we view maximum employment as the maximum sustainable level of employment, meaning it’s not so much that it will cause the economy to overheat.",2019,2,210
360,"In the Committee's discussion of possible adjustments to policy during the intermeeting period, members agreed that the retention of an asymmetric directive toward tightening was consistent with their view that the risks remained biased toward higher inflation.",2022,1,345
489,"Indeed, the discrepancy between actual and predicted money growth was sufficiently large that the P* model, if not subjected to judgmental adjustments, would have predicted deflation for 1991 and 1992.",2021,2,473
839,"in particular, the Fed's loss of credibility significantly increased the cost of achieving disinflation.",1999,1,815
267,"Following the GFC, it took more than eight years for employment and inflation to return to similar mandate-consistent levels.",1996,2,262
255,"The problem with the current situation is that, that if you have a sustained period of supply shocks, those can actually start to undermine or to work—to work on de-anchoring inflation expectations.",2012,1,250
277,"However, the dollar partially retraced these increases following the much weaker-than-expected U. S. employment report for May, finishing the period a bit stronger against the currencies of the AFEs and about 3 percent higher against EME currencies.",1998,0,266
74,"And, by the end of this year, I support having the policy rate at a level above neutral so that it is reducing demand for products and labor, bringing it more in line with supply and thus helping rein in inflation.",2000,1,73
895,"The expansion in economic activity was anticipated to slowly reduce the slack in labor and product markets over the projection period, and progress in reducing the unemployment rate was expected to be gradual.",2009,0,846
806,The number of black-owned firms increased nearly 50 percent and the number of Hispanic-owned firms jumped 80 percent between 1987 and 1992--between two and three times the rate of growth of non-minority-owned firms.,2022,2,783
957,The recent information on inflation was seen as disappointing.,2011,2,904
991,"While I will carefully monitor inflation expectations, it will be important to see a sustained improvement in actual inflation to meet our average inflation goal.",1999,0,962
827,"The specific price-stability target of an inflation rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, was announced as part of the Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy following the January 2012 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.",2001,2,804
451,"In the absence of such a forward-looking response of long-term rates, short-term interest rates may have to move by more to achieve the same near-term impact on long-term interest rates and economic activity.",2000,2,438
982,"The staff forecast prepared for this meeting continued to suggest that the expansion would gradually moderate from its currently elevated pace to a rate around, or perhaps a little below, the growth of the economy's estimated potential.",2019,2,926
97,"But—so I would just say that our—that there are many things that go in, as you know, to, to setting asset prices.",2022,2,93
145,"In the near term, 12-month measures of PCE inflation are expected to move above 2 percent as the very low readings from early in the pandemic fall out of the calculation and past increases in oil prices pass through to consumer energy prices.",2012,1,140
76,and inflation rises slowly towards 2 percent.,2018,0,75
218,"So you’re going to have different perspectives from Committee participants about how fast growth will be, how fast the labor market will heal, or how fast—sorry, inflation will move up.",2019,1,213
969,The slowdown would reflect factors that were expected to damp the growth of overall business investment spending and a greater saturation of potential computer markets that might lead to more emphasis on replacement demand rather than the further expansion of capacity.,2000,0,915
356,"In the Committee's discussion of current and prospective economic conditions, members focused on the disparate forces that continued to shape trends in economic activity, notably the persist- ence of considerable strength in private domestic spending and the damping influences stemming from foreign economic developments.",1997,2,341
127,"I would say, in the area of commercial real estate, while valuations are high, we are seeing some tightening of lending standards and less debt growth associated with that rise in commercial real estate prices.",2016,1,122
71,"Although the unemployment rate has declined somewhat since the summer, it remains elevated.",2017,0,71
754,"The associated declines in wealth could amplify the effects on economic activity, which could have further knock-on effects on financial markets.",2006,0,732
1004,"With gross retail margins amounting to about 30 percent of sales, a reduction in currently elevated margins could make an important contribution to reduced inflation pressures in consumer goods.",2000,1,975
5,"Against this backdrop, today the Federal Open Market Committee raised its policy interest rate by ¾ percentage point and anticipates that ongoing increases in that rate will be appropriate.",2018,1,5
1018,"There were more reports that rising wages and benefits and increasing costs of nonlabor inputs could no longer be fully offset by improvements in productivity, and more business firms appeared to be attempting or considering increases in their selling prices to maintain or improve their profit margins.",2020,1,960
449,"In the United States, evaluating the effects on the economy of shifts in balance sheets and variations in asset prices have been an integral part of the development of monetary policy.",2022,2,436
122,"I think the—you know, in a way, the least tight aspect of it is, is looking at the unemployment rate, which is still below our median estimate of, of [the unemployment rate consistent with] maximum employment.",2015,0,117
698,"Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook In conjunction with this FOMC meeting, participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2022 through 2024 and over the longer run based on their individual assessments of appropriate monetary policy, including the path of the federal funds rate.",2012,2,663
1072,"Two noted the possibility that sustained high levels of long-term unemployment could result in higher structural unemployment, an outcome that might be forestalled by increased aggregate demand.",2015,0,1012
417,"In view of the most recent information on the economy, members agreed that it was appropriate for the post-meeting statement to characterize economic growth as apparently continuing to moderate.",2008,2,400
142,"In real terms, with a 2 percent inflation objective—that’s 1 percent in real terms.",2013,0,137
49,"Although inflation is ultimately a monetary phenomenon, it seems natural to expect, as others have argued, that these developments would have exerted some downward pressure on inflation in the United States.",2006,0,48
472,"Largely as a consequence of rapidly expanding ""new economy"" investments, gains in productivity had occurred at remarkable rates in recent years.",2022,2,451
275,We also do see the different measures of slack in the labor market point to different assessments of just what maximum employment is.,2021,2,269
233,That should drive productivity.,2016,2,228
699,"Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook In their discussion of the economic situation and the outlook, meeting participants saw the information received over the intermeeting period as suggesting that labor market conditions had improved further in late 2015 even as economic growth slowed.",2012,2,664
722,That interdependence suggests that monetary policy makers must pay attention to conditions abroad as well as at home.,2002,2,700
57,"Although prospects for economic activity had not deteriorated significantly since the March meeting, the outlook for growth and employment remained weak and slack in resource utilization was likely to increase.",2000,0,57
327,Higher inflation expectations would in turn lead workers to bargain for commensurate raises in nominal wages to preserve the real value of their earnings.,2021,1,318
116,"I expect that to continue, and I would expect also to see some improvement in the degree of part-time employment that’s for economic reasons.",2019,0,111
233,"Even before the recent unfortunate developments in the Middle East, demand to augment buffer stocks surged, which has helped to keep prices high.",2003,1,229
740,"Reinforcing this outlook was recent evidence of somewhat faster than anticipated productivity growth, the prospect that world economic conditions would hold down energy prices, and a sharp drop in near-term inflation expectations of households as reported in recent surveys.",2012,0,700
432,"In particular, a surprise tightening of policy raises the risk premium, lowering current stock prices, and a surprise easing lowers the risk premium, raising current stock prices.",2021,2,419
617,"On March 16, we launched a program to purchase Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities in whatever amounts needed to support smooth market functioning, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions.",2002,2,597
385,"In their assessment of factors leading to this decision, the members focused on the further evidence that moderating demand and accelerating productivity were closing the gap between the growth of aggregate demand and potential supply, even before earlier Committee tightening actions had exerted their full restraining effects.",2014,1,370
92,"But you do see growth in services, so you—this pattern around the world of Chair Powell’s Press Conference FINAL weak manufacturing",2014,2,88
847,"The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate.",2001,0,798
68,"Although the pace of job losses was moderating, the unusually large fraction of those who were working part time for economic reasons and the unusually low level of the average workweek pointed to only a gradual decline in the unemployment rate as the economic recovery proceeded.",2018,0,68
306,"as a result, headline PCE price inflation was expected to substantially exceed core PCE price inflation in 2008.",2017,2,291
152,It also affects stock prices.,2018,2,147
182,"By the same token, the effect of the interest rate channel on overall economic activity may be diminished by greater trade integration as changes in domestic demand are offset by induced changes in imports.",1997,2,180
681,"Participants generally expected that, over the medium term, real economic activity would increase at a pace sufficient to lead to a further gradual decline in the unemployment rate toward levels consistent with the Committee's objective of maximum employment.",2011,1,646
202,So negative interest rates is something that we looked at during the financial crisis and chose not to do.,2019,2,197
729,"as before, core inflation was projected to be quite subdued at rates below last year's pace.",2008,2,691
916,"To achieve its mandated objectives, the FOMC must influence the course of the U.S. economy, helping it to grow rapidly enough to make full use of available resources but not so rapidly as to stoke inflation.",2022,0,888
583,Most other interest rates in short-term markets were little changed over the period.,2021,2,553
390,"In April, prices of core goods and services--that is, consumer prices excluding food and energy--were unchanged for a second month.",2020,2,378
626,"Notwithstanding these developments, some participants cautioned that progress toward the Committee's inflation objective should not be overstated",2010,2,593
990,"The staff viewed the extent of uncertainty around its March projections for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation as similar to the average over the past 20 years.",1997,2,933
759,Several participants commented that the factors that had contributed to low inflation during the previous expansion could again exert more downward pressure on inflation than expected.,2010,0,718
109,"At the same time, however, the near-term outlook for inflation had deteriorated, and the risks that underlying inflation pressures could prove to be greater than anticipated appeared to have risen.",2021,1,106
680,"Required down payments, usually about half of the home's purchase price, excluded many households from the market.",2020,2,659
634,"Or the 1990s could be used as an illustration of how monetary policy could lower inflation, with concomitant gains in terms of full employment and long-term economic growth.",2002,1,613
1084,"While bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth.",2017,2,1024
1115,"With regard to the outlook for inflation, members gave considerable attention to the somewhat faster increases in broad price measures over the past year,",2015,1,1053
425,"Indeed, in the interest of fostering a continuation of sustainable growth of the economy, it would be desirable to tighten before any sign of actual higher inflation were to become evident.",2022,1,408
1018,"With tight labor markets and little slack in product markets, we are led to conclude that significant persistent strength in the growth of nominal demand for goods and services, outstripping the likely rate of increase in capacity, will presumably be resisted by higher market interest rates.",2022,1,986
965,"We include these types of price terms today in our forecasting equations, and they are important to forming our views of the inflation outlook and thus to the policy process.",2003,2,936
720,"Rather, members agreed that inflation was likely to moderate in coming quarters,",2005,1,684
714,"Private investors would have to hold more longer-term securities as the Federal Reserve's holdings ran off, making longer-term interest rates somewhat higher than they would be otherwise.",1996,1,678
1061,"To some, the continued subdued trend in wages was evidence of an absence of upward pressure on inflation from current levels of labor utilization.",1998,0,1001
1131,"” The vote encompassed approval of the text below for inclusion in the statement to be released at 2:15 p. m. : “In these circumstances, the Committee’s predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected.",2013,1,1069
179,"Of course, we’re ready to provide information that Congress needs to evaluate the Fed’s decisionmaking, in monetary policy and elsewhere.",2021,2,174
569,"Moreover, most members saw substantial downside risks to the economic outlook and judged that a rate reduction at this meeting would provide valuable additional insurance against an unexpectedly severe weakening in economic activity.",2011,0,540
199,"So it’s a serious economic problem for the United States, but it’s—it’s got underlying causes that are not related to monetary policy or to our response to the pandemic.",2016,2,194
608,"Obviously, productivity growth generated through this rationalization process will not have the direct demand-augmenting effect of productivity increases realized through more rapid investment spending.",2020,2,589
615,"Nonetheless, the potential for significant further weakening in housing activity and home prices represented a downside risk to the economic outlook.",2021,0,583
948,"U.S. monetary policy responded to these global ""headwinds,"" helping stave off actual contractions of U.S. activity.",2000,0,919
583,"Moving to such a system would require assigning monetary policy to the task of targeting exchange rates, and countries are free to do so if they wish.",2013,2,565
187,"Certainly, if we are to remain preeminent in transforming knowledge into economic value, the U.S. system of higher education must remain the world's leader in generating scientific and technological breakthroughs and in preparing workers to meet the evolving demands for skilled labor.",2007,2,185
178,"Despite a recent uptick in consumer prices, year-over-year consumer inflation remained at a very low level.",1999,0,172
670,Participants commented that demand for labor continued to outstrip available supply across many parts of the economy and that their business contacts continued to report difficulties in hiring and retaining workers.,1998,2,635
191,"Energy prices were moderating noticeably in response to lower worldwide demand, and core price inflation remained subdued.",2005,0,182
1112,"With regard to the federal sector, spending related to last year’s hurricanes appeared likely to abate, and federal expenditures overall would probably be providing less impetus to aggregate demand going forward.",2015,0,1051
322,"In contrast, some other participants judged that the economy had not yet reached maximum employment.",2018,0,307
875,This change has led many governments to be more willing to adopt institutional changes to improve central bank governance that have bolstered central bank credibility for maintaining low inflation.,2003,1,848
99,"By getting unemployment down, we hope to bring back to work some of the people who’ve been out of work as long as they have and, in that respect, try to avoid the longer-term consequences of people being out of work for months at a time.",2017,0,95
968,The significant decreases that had occurred in the prices of fuel oil and gasoline were a positive factor that would continue to bolster household spending for a while.,1997,2,914
500,"Many noted that the slowdown could be a temporary aberration and that other labor market indicators--such as new claims for unemployment insurance, the rate of job openings, and readings on consumers' perceptions of the labor market--remained positive.",2013,2,479
236,"Even with generous allowances for structural change, labor utilization would seem to be at a level that might eventually begin to put persistent and growing pressure on labor costs and prices.",2003,1,232
902,The external sector was projected to continue to support domestic economic activity throughout the forecast period.,2021,2,852
397,"In addition to directly affecting longer-term interest rates, changes to the balance sheet could serve to reinforce policy communication associated with the short-term rate.",2021,2,385
661,Productivity is a cyclical variable that typically falls in recessions.,2001,2,640
645,"Overall, though shifts in business attitudes are difficult to measure, I believe that markets reward businesses that outperform their competitors and that, as demand picks up, companies will respond to opportunities to incorporate technological advances in production, communication, and organization.",2007,2,624
804,"The more inflation rose, the more people came to expect it to remain high, and they built that belief into wage and pricing decisions.",2005,1,781
782,The evidence suggests that new technology often results in more growth in employment in innovating industries.,2013,2,759
482,"Indeed, just recently, the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee determined that the recession that began in March of last year ended in April, making it not only the deepest recession on record, but also the briefest.2 Moreover, with the development and distribution of several remarkably effective vaccines, the monetary and fiscal policies presently in place should continue to support the strong expansion in economic activity that is expected to be realized this year, although, obviously, the rapid spread of the Delta variant among the still considerable fraction of the population that is unvaccinated is clearly a downside risk for the outlook.",2005,0,466
202,"Consumer sentiment remains solid, and the employment picture is positive.",2019,1,200
722,Readings on consumer price inflation had picked up somewhat mainly because of increases in oil and gasoline prices earlier in the year.,2008,1,685
718,"Pursuant to the Committee's instructions in March, the staff had activated its study of the possible employment of mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by the Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Maes) in outright System open market operations.",2005,2,682
662,"Participants agreed to continue to explore ways to increase transparency and clarity in the Committee's policy communications, and they indicated a willingness to look into modifications to the SEP. At the end of the discussion, the Chairman asked the subcommittee on communications to explore potential approaches to providing more information about the Committee's collective judgment regarding the economic outlook and appropriate monetary policy through the SEP.",2004,2,628
632,"Operating Strategies and the FOMC Meeting Now that we appreciate the challenging nature of monetary policy, we are ready to develop a strategy for implementing open market operations.",2001,2,611
129,"Business spending on equipment and structures was anticipated to continue to outpace the overall expansion of the economy, though the differential would tend to narrow over time in association with the gradual diminution of increases in sales and profits that was expected to be associated with moderating economic growth.",2000,2,126
1008,"The unemployment rate was unchanged over the period between the April and June meetings,",2012,2,950
318,"Global factors may have put downward pressure on term premiums because of anxiety about the foreign outlook, which may have increased demand for U.S. assets, or because low rates abroad have depressed U.S. term premiums through a global portfolio balance channel.5 And real rates are quite low globally, reflecting the step-down of productivity growth over the past 10 years as well as shifts in savings and investment demand due to demographic change.6 The Core of the Financial System Is Much Stronger Before turning to the interplay between low rates and the financial system, I will simply point out that both improved risk management at the largest, most systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) and stronger regulation have made the core of the system much stronger and more resilient than before the crisis.7 The SIFIs have more stable funding, hold much more capital and liquidity, are more conscious of their risks, and are far more resolvable should they fail.",1998,2,310
911,"The growth of domestic nonfinancial debt slowed in October (latest data), reflecting a larger further paydown of federal debt and a reduced pace of private borrowing.",2000,2,861
305,"In addition, the forecast for headline PCE price inflation incorporated a much higher rate of increase for energy prices for the first half of the year",2017,1,291
147,"But before I comment on productivity, I'd like to begin with a review of recent economic developments.",2021,2,145
243,"However, a few other participants pointed to the record of inflation consistently running below the Committee's 2 percent objective over recent years and expressed the concern that longer-run inflation expectations may have slipped below levels consistent with that objective.",1996,0,234
68,"As was highlighted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, this figure likely understates the extent of unemployment; accounting for the unusually large number of workers who reported themselves as employed but absent from their jobs would raise the unemployment rate by about 3 percentage points.",2017,0,67
911,"Thus, avoiding a further substantial fall in inflation should be a priority of monetary policy.",2003,0,884
959,The recent strains in financial markets posed additional downside risks to economic growth.,2019,0,906
13,And I’ll discuss the thinking behind today’s interest rate reduction and then turn to the path forward.,2019,0,13
744,"Residential construction activity remained at a high level, evidently supported in part by recent declines in mortgage interest rates.",2012,0,704
293,increases in expected inflation will thus tend to promote greater actual inflation.,2004,2,285
386,"In their assessment of the outlook for inflation, members agreed that",2014,2,371
163,"Continued gains in employment and income, high household net worth, and low gasoline prices were viewed as factors that should support consumer spending in coming months.",2014,1,159
316,"Given that we have yet to experience difficulties in funding a current account deficit that exceeds 6 percent of our GDP, what are the limits to the foreign markets' absorption of claims on U.S. residents?",1998,2,308
244,"However, a few participants expressed concern that higher household wealth might not translate into greater consumer spending, cautioning that household income growth remained slow, that households might not treat the additions to wealth arising from recent equity price increases as lasting, or that households' scope to extract housing equity for the purpose of increasing their expenditures was less than in the past.",1998,2,235
0,1 Chair Yellen intended to say that “interest rate differentials globally do tend to induce capital flows that have impacts on exchange rates.” GREG ROBB.,2019,2,0
808,"Staff Economic Outlook In the economic forecast prepared by the staff for the March FOMC meeting, real GDP growth was revised down somewhat in the near term, largely reflecting the federal spending sequestration that went into effect on March 1 and the resulting drag from reduced government purchases.",2012,0,763
345,"However, nothing prevents a central bank from switching its focus from the price of reserves to the quantity or growth of reserves.",2004,2,336
895,"This paper develops and estimates a habit persistence consumption asset pricing model in which the sign of the equilibrium covariance between equity and bond returns depends on the reduced-form correlation between inflation and the output gap, the correlation between the federal funds rate and the output gap, as well as the equilibrium persistence of inflation.",1999,2,868
42,And we were actually quite concerned that growth was not sufficient to continue to bring the unemployment rate down.,2017,0,42
964,"The risks to the forecast for real GDP were seen as tilted to the downside, reflecting the staff's assessment that neither monetary nor fiscal policy was well positioned to help the economy withstand substantial adverse shocks; the downside risks to the forecast of economic activity were seen as more pronounced than in December, mainly reflecting the greater uncertainty about global economic prospects and the financial market turbulence in the United States and abroad.",1997,0,911
278,"Faust and others, 2006) and appear to have a strong effect on foreign equity indexes as well.2 In contrast, the effects of foreign short-term rates on U.S. asset prices appear to be relatively weaker.",2004,2,272
248,"The changes—the financial market changes that you described, particularly the increase in stock prices, the increase in longer-term rates, and the strengthening of the dollar, suggest that many market participants anticipate expansionary fiscal policies that would raise interest rates somewhat in the United States relative to abroad and would cause a strengthening in the dollar.",2012,0,243
457,"It was observed that, after the early 1980s, the pass-through of energy prices into core inflation had been quite limited, suggesting that, in current circumstances, core inflation could stay relatively low and overall inflation would probably drop back if inflation expectations remained contained.",2021,2,436
197,Expansion of these two monetary aggregates was supported by further rapid expansion in the demand for currency and stronger inflows to retail money market funds at a time of weakness in U. S. bond and equity markets.,2004,1,188
713,"Price inflation had picked up a little but, abstracting from energy, had remained relatively subdued.",1996,2,677
572,"Moreover, monetary policy actions addressed at a perceived bubble in one sector may have undesirable effects on other asset prices and the economy more generally.",2006,0,554
684,"Scholars disagree somewhat about the extent to which policymakers of the time tried actively to take advantage of this supposed tradeoff, but these ideas likely provided part of the intellectual rationale that made the authorities willing to allow inflation to rise throughout the 1960s and in the early 1970s.",2006,2,663
954,"The recent decline in the dollar was another factor that could add to inflation pressures,",2011,1,902
118,"At this point, for me, it comes down to what the incoming data and other economic information will tell us about the outlook for inflation.",2022,2,117
912,"Thus, knowing where productivity growth is headed is, in many respects, equivalent to foreseeing our economic destinies.",2003,2,885
905,"Though widely anticipated even before the actions of October, the recession and retrenchment in employment that followed those actions resulted in pressures on the Federal Reserve to reverse course.",2007,0,878
198,Expectations of greater and longer-lasting slack in labor and product markets than anticipated earlier had led to downward revisions to forecasts of wage and price inflation.,2004,0,189
137,Committee Policy Action Committee members saw the information received over the intermeeting period as suggesting that economic activity was expanding at a moderate pace.,2022,1,134
864,These decisions can then push up prices even more and make inflation harder to get under control.,2003,1,837
172,"More broadly, however, weaker demand, especially in sectors that have been most affected by the pandemic, has held down consumer prices, and overall, inflation is running well below our 2 percent longer-run objective.",2014,0,167
711,"Such a policy would clearly have near-term costs: It would slow the expansion in demand, damp the creation of new jobs, and keep inflation lower than it otherwise would be.",2004,0,690
1011,"With regard to our price-stability mandate,",2005,2,979
842,"Their trade accounts tend to be in surplus, in some cases substantially, an indication that they are supplying more goods into the global economy than they are demanding.",1999,0,817
92,"At earlier stages of processing, the producer price index for core intermediate materials continued to decline through May, albeit at a slower pace than that seen at the end of 2008.",2016,0,90
207,So the Committee estimates that the longer-run normal level of the unemployment rate is 5.0 to 5.2.,2013,2,202
910,"Thus, I believe this description essentially characterizes the current macroeconomic environment, and my own projection of inflation at a three-year horizon is equal to my assessment of the mandate-consistent inflation rate.",2003,2,883
479,"Indeed, how will we measure inflation, and the associated financial and real implications, in the twenty-first century when our data--using current techniques--could become increasingly less adequate for tracing price trends over time?",2005,2,463
855,"Therefore, even in the case of personal computers, where we have made such great strides in measuring quality changes, I suspect that important phenomena still may not be adequately captured by our published price indexes.",2008,2,829
254,"First, policymakers should continuously update their estimates of the NAIRU and the output gap, using all available information, particularly the realizations of unemployment, output, and inflation.",2001,2,249
773,"The dual mandate seems proper and fitting, given that economic costs are incurred both by having inflation stray from its long-run goal and by having output deviate from the economy's potential to produce",2004,2,751
630,"On balance, however, the members generally believed that prospective trends in overall economic activity and the persistence of strong competitive pressures in most markets, including the effects of foreign competition, were likely in the context of now firmly embedded expectations of low inflation to moderate any tendency for price inflation to accelerate over the year ahead.",2005,2,597
305,"From a low near $30 per barrel in late 2003, the price of oil rose to $70 per barrel by the middle of 2006, and it has stayed high, with the current price more than $80.",2008,1,297
963,"The risks to the forecast for real GDP were seen as tilted to the downside, reflecting the staff's assessment that monetary policy appeared to be better positioned to offset large positive shocks than substantial adverse ones.",1997,0,910
208,"Current Economic Situation and Outlook While the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has taken a tragic human toll measured in terms of lives lost and suffering inflicted, as a direct result of the necessary public health policies put in place to mitigate and control the spread of the virus, the pandemic has also inflicted a heavy toll on the levels of activity and employment in the U.S. economy.",2020,0,205
348,"However, the historical record suggests that permanently lowering inflation expectations may require keeping monetary policy tight for a substantial period, resulting in considerable output and employment losses for a time.",2006,1,339
103,"At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: ""The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output.",1999,1,100
164,"I’m more concerned about that than about the possibility, which exists, of higher inflation.",2020,2,159
607,"Nowhere, however, is the challenge to monetary policymakers greater than in emerging economies around the world.",2020,2,588
985,"When considering the risks to the labor market, these risks must be viewed in the context of its current strength and with the understanding that our primary challenge is to get inflation under control.",2007,1,956
257,"However, indicators of economic activity in Japan and Brazil remained weak.",2014,2,248
616,"Nonetheless, the reported rise in employment of temporary workers in recent months could presage a broader increase in job growth and thus was a welcome development.",2021,1,584
254,"The persistence of that into, into inflation over time is just not there.",2021,0,249
289,"For example, the shift in manufacturing production from artisanal shops in the mid-1800s to factories after the Civil War led to a disproportionate increase in the demand for unskilled labor to operate the new machines.",2004,2,283
1020,"Without the accompanying boost to productivity, our progress toward price stability might well have been marked by the social pressures that arose in many previous episodes of disinflation both here and abroad.",2022,0,988
200,Consider a price increase for a breakfast cereal that increases the prices of both the brand-name cereal and the corresponding lower-priced store-brand cereal but maintains a differential between them.,2019,1,198
526,"LBOs, and other forms of private equity investment, may force management to implement strategic changes rapidly to restore the firm’s return on equity and boost share prices, in part by increasing financial leverage.",1998,2,509
1014,"With respect to the new framework itself, the statement now notes that the neutral level of the federal funds rate has declined relative to its historical average and therefore that the policy rate is more likely than in the past to be constrained by its ELB, and, moreover, that this binding ELB constraint is likely to impart downside risks to inflation and employment that the Committee needs to consider in implementing its monetary policy strategy.",2005,1,982
525,Measures of inflation compensation based on TIPS fell in response to the soft reading on core inflation in the November CPI release,2006,2,496
610,"October 19, 2020 U.S. Economic Outlook, Monetary Policy, and Initiatives to Sustain the Flow of Credit to Households and Firms Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the Unconventional Convention of the American Bankers Association, Washington, D.C. (via webcast) Share It is my pleasure to meet virtually with you today at the Unconventional Convention of the American Bankers Association.1 I look forward to my conversation with Rob Nichols,",2020,2,591
651,"Policymakers, economists, and market participants see much of this decline as reflecting a permanent fall in the equilibrium rate of interest—that is, the level of the federal funds rate that keeps the economy at full employment with stable inflation in the longer run.",2002,0,630
394,"In a paper presented at a recent conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Kozicki and Tinsley (2003) develop an empirical model of the economy under the assumptions that the Fed's implicit inflation target is subject to permanent shocks and that the public learns about the Fed's target over time.",2020,2,382
646,"One participant suggested that excess liquidity might be leading to speculation in commodity markets, possibly putting upward pressure on prices.",1999,1,613
88,"As a result, the likely pace and extent of policy easing expected by investors increased, and yields on nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury coupon securities fell.",2013,0,86
606,"Now with respect to the first objective, the rationale for maximizing employment is fairly obvious.",2005,0,587
330,"In furtherance of these objectives, the Committee at its meeting in February established ranges for growth of M2 and M3 of 1 to 5 percent and 2 to 6 percent respectively, measured from the fourth quarter of 1998 to the fourth quarter of 1999.",2017,2,315
507,"It is again useful to compare estimates of expected inflation derived from breakeven inflation data with estimates of expected inflation obtained from surveys—for example, the expected inflation over the next 5 to 10 years from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.",2020,1,490
143,"Conditions in the commercial paper (CP) market improved over the intermeeting period, likely reflecting recent measures taken in support of this market, greater demand from institutional investors, and the passing of year-end.",1996,0,140
1032,They also agreed that the inflation situation seemed to have improved slightly and judged that it was no longer appropriate to indicate that a sustained moderation in inflation pressures had yet to be shown.,2007,2,974
1113,"With regard to the nation as a whole, members noted that rising levels of employment and incomes were continuing to foster solid growth in consumer spending, a development that was abetted by the sharp increases that had occurred in household wealth as a consequence of the extended uptrend in stock market prices and to a lesser extent the appreciation of home prices.",2015,1,1052
519,survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations had changed little on balance.,2013,2,492
206,"the approach can be applied equally well by ""inflation hawks,"" ""growth hawks,"" and anyone in between.",2020,2,203
494,Inflation averaging doesn't define how much above 2 percent is moderate and how long some value of elevated inflation should be tolerated.,2005,1,478
890,The downside risks from the possibility that longer-term inflation expectations may have edged down or that the dollar could appreciate substantially were seen as roughly counterbalanced by the upside risk that inflation could increase more than expected in an economy that was projected to continue operating above its longer-run potential.,2011,2,841
445,"In terms of the performance of inflation and unemployment, the experience of the past few years has not been unlike a mirror image of the 1970s.",2021,2,432
801,"Some restraint on aggregate demand would come from other sectors of the economy--notably government spending, net exports, housing, and perhaps business inventories.",2017,2,757
143,"In spite of having such slow growth, disappointing productivity growth, we have a labor market that last year generated an average of about 230,000 jobs a month and so far this year has been generating about 180,000 jobs a month.",2013,1,138
78,where unemployment continues to fall at a gradual pace as it has been since last September—and we have made some progress since last September,2018,0,75
447,Inflation had increased somewhat since earlier this year,2016,1,426
828,"market-based measures of inflation compensation over the next five years, as well as over the five-year period beginning five years ahead, moved down further over the intermeeting period.",2000,2,781
418,not to target asset prices (or exchange rates).,2022,2,405
184,"Central bank actions are designed in the first instance to influence asset prices and yields, which in turn affect economic decisions and thus the evolution of the economy.",1997,2,182
63,"An intuitive way of thinking about this rise and fall in inflation persistence is that it resulted from an un-anchoring of trend inflation during the period of the Great Inflation, and a re-anchoring in recent years, as the work of Stock and Watson suggests.",2004,2,62
400,"In addition, U.S. inflation remains muted.",2000,0,388
620,"On the supply side, the effect is fairly clear and immediate: An increase in trend productivity growth implies a more rapid pace of growth of the economy's productive capacity.",2017,1,600
242,"Fast growth of productivity, by buoying expectations of future advances of wages and earnings and thus aggregate demand, enables real interest rates to be higher than would otherwise be the case without restricting economic growth.",2006,1,238
340,"However, in my judgment, reliance on these two approaches is not symmetric; instead, the forecast-based approach has become increasingly dominant in the monetary policymaking of leading central banks.",2005,2,331
79,"Another example of deficit targets comes from the balanced-budget requirements of the states, which can be viewed as deficit targets with the target set at zero.",2006,2,78
539,Members also expressed concern about the potential for an increase in inflation expectations given highly stimulative macroeconomic policies and economic growth that seemed to be gathering momentum.,2009,1,510
755,"The authors’ principal empirical finding is that the onset and, to a lesser degree, the end of the Great Inflation were closely synchronized across a number of countries.",2021,2,733
90,"As reflected in their SEP projections, participants regarded the current stance of monetary policy as likely to remain appropriate for a time as long as incoming information about the economy remained broadly consistent with the economic outlook.",2013,2,88
71,"Business and household spending are increasing at rates consistent with moderate economic growth, though household spending appears to be rising at a somewhat slower pace than earlier this year.",2011,1,70
361,"In the Committee’s discussion of monetary policy for the intermeeting period, nearly all members favored keeping the target federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent at this meeting.",2022,2,346
276,We also don’t conduct monetary policy in order to prove our independence.,2020,2,270
807,The presidents' reports often include anecdotal updates from businesses or other sources to provide real-time information on regional economic activity.,2022,2,784
17,"And if the stock theory of the portfolio is correct, which we believe it is, holding all of those securities off of the market and reinvesting and still keeping the, you know, rolling-over maturing securities, will still continue to put downward pressure on interest rates.",2013,0,17
681,"Reserve balances are one among several items on the liability side of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, and demand for these liabilities—notably, currency in circulation—grows over time.",2020,2,660
51,"Although personally I have no doubt that quantification of the price stability objective is fully consistent with the current dual mandate, I also appreciate the delicate issues of communication raised by such a change.",2004,1,50
131,But equity prices were only holding their own after a substantial decline earlier and the dollar had appreciated.,2000,0,128
181,"with domestic spending strong, members were becoming more concerned that those developments might not exert enough restraint on aggregate demand to slow the expansion to a sustainable pace in line with the growth of the economy's potential.",2016,0,175
47,"Also, the recent evidence could be interpreted as indicating that the surprisingly sharp decline in measured inflation in 2003 exaggerated the drop in the underlying rate of inflation.",2001,0,47
637,"On the other hand, if recent productivity gains were to be sustained, as some business contacts indicated they would be, potential output currently could be higher than standard measures suggested, and the high level of the unemployment rate could be a more accurate indication of slack in resource utilization than usual measures of the output gap.",2001,0,604
201,"So let me talk about the coronavirus specifically, and then I’ll turn more to global growth more generally.",2019,2,196
77,Another clear attempt at political interference emerged in February 1988 when an undersecretary of the Treasury sent a letter to Federal Reserve officials urging them to ease monetary policy.,2006,2,76
938,"Today a rise in oil prices has mixed effects on the economy, lowering real household incomes and thus demand, but raising investment in drilling over time and benefiting oil-producing areas more generally.",2019,1,909
806,"Specifically, the projections converged on CPI inflation rates of 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent in 1997 and 2-1/2 to 3 percent in 1998.",2012,2,761
513,survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.,2020,2,489
891,This monetary expansion could generate domestic inflation unless it is sterilized with other open market sales of securities--and the mere scale of present and expected future debt stocks may make continued sterilization impossible.,2006,1,864
329,Higher productivity growth has apparently increased aggregate demand through at least three channels.,2021,1,320
757,thought that potential output growth was likely to be a bit higher than forecast by the staff.,2010,2,716
515,It is worth noting that today the economy is very strong and is well positioned to handle tighter monetary policy.,2000,1,498
508,"Market-based measures of inflation compensation had remained low,",2020,0,486
113,I don’t know that demand for reserves has risen over the past years.,2013,2,108
627,"One objective--price stability--can be well defined and is fully under the control of monetary policymakers, at least over a period of time.",2020,2,607
86,"As a case in point, the increase in the transparency of U.S. monetary policy over the past two decades has been quite significant.",2017,2,85
1035,"They also generally expected that inflation would remain, for some time, below levels the Committee considers most consistent, over the longer run, with maximum employment and price stability.",2017,0,977
926,The members agreed that the statement to be issued after this meeting should highlight their view that even after their firming today the risks remained weighted mainly in the direction of rising inflation pressures.,2006,1,875
972,continued to anticipate a moderate strengthening of the expansion in 2011 as well as a further pickup in economic growth in 2012.,2000,2,918
344,"In light of the robust expansion of capital spending thus far this year, the outlook for business investment spending was revised up appreciably, as more of the strength over the latter part of 2004 was attributed to underlying demand and less to the effects of the partial-expensing tax provision.",2004,1,329
744,"The Federal Reserve is taking action to keep inflation expectations anchored and bring inflation back to 2 percent over time.1 While last year's rapid pace of economic growth was boosted by accommodative fiscal and monetary policy as well as reopening, demand has moderated this year as those tailwinds have abated.",2007,1,722
481,"Indeed, in the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook, four out of five countries in this group are expected to post inflation rates between 1 percent and 3 percent this year.",2005,2,465
241,"The Federal Reserve’s enhanced guidance about its policy intentions and its substantial and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities will ensure that monetary policy remains highly accommodative, consistent with the pursuit of its mandated objectives of maximum employment and price stability.",2020,0,236
601,"Notwithstanding the shift toward monetary policy committees, each central bank and its institutional structure reflects the politics and culture of the country that it serves (or ""countries"" in the case of the European Central Bank).",2003,2,582
558,"Monetary Policy in a World without Treasuries Today, monetary policy decisions are implemented through a mix of outright purchases and sales of assets held in the Fed's portfolio, temporary operations through repurchase agreements, and discount window loans.2 It seems to me that the same three operations, though perhaps in different proportions, could be used in the absence of Treasury securities.",2021,2,540
321,"You’ll never get inflation to 2 percent.” Some of our critics now who say inflation’s too tight—too high were the same ones who were saying, “You’ll never get to 2 percent.” Well, but anyway, that’s what happened.",2014,2,314
209,"For 2000, the Committee agreed on a tentative basis in June to retain the same ranges for growth of the monetary aggregates and debt, measured from the fourth quarter of 1999 to the fourth quarter of 2000.",2007,2,200
1110,"With longer-run inflation expectations assumed to remain stable, changes in commodity and import prices expected to be modest, and significant resource slack persisting over the forecast period, inflation was forecast to be subdued through 2015.",1999,2,1049
621,"Nonetheless, with the unemployment rate anticipated to increase somewhat during the remainder of 2009 and to decline only gradually in 2010, the staff still expected core PCE inflation to slow substantially over the forecast period; the very low readings on hourly compensation lately suggested that such a process might already be in train.",1996,0,589
944,Treasury yields rose sharply on its release as market participants traced out the report's presumed implications for monetary policy.,1997,1,915
713,"Such forces can also cause short-term fluctuations in the economy that are, at least in part, beyond the control of monetary policy.",2004,2,692
582,Most analysts would contend that U.S. interest rates were lowered by the world's accumulation of dollars.,2013,0,564
191,So I don’t have a sense—the Committee doesn’t try to gauge what is the right level of equity prices.,2020,2,186
59,"And—and we do that with measures that—that, you know, keep people in their homes; that—that support hiring; that support growth; that avoid unnecessary, avoidable business insolvencies.",2011,2,58
769,"The delays often reflected concerns about the putative costs and risks of these policies, such as stoking high inflation and impairing market functioning.",2004,1,747
20,A key factor in this assessment continued to be their outlook for rapid further gains in structural productivity that would help to hold down increases in unit labor costs.,2014,2,20
144,But a longer-term trend--slow productivity growth--helps explain why we don't think dramatic interest rate increases are required to move our federal funds rate target back to neutral.,2022,1,142
633,"On balance, while the business investment outlook seemed vulnerable to somewhat greater than projected weakness in the short run, the members were persuaded that, against the background of large continuing gains in structural productivity and cost savings from further investment in equipment and software, business firms were likely to accelerate their spending for new capital after a period of adjustment.",2001,2,600
894,"This outcome would be entirely consistent with the new framework we adopted in August 2020 and began to implement at our September 2020 FOMC meeting.3 In our new framework, we aim for inflation outcomes that keep inflation expectations well anchored at 2 percent.",2006,1,867
644,One member was persuaded that policy had already become so expansionary that further easing ran an unacceptable risk of exacerbating inflation over time.,1999,1,611
480,"Looking ahead, reports from retailer contacts were somewhat mixed; many anticipated relatively depressed holiday sales and where possible were making efforts to limit buildups of holiday merchandise, while other retailers were confident that sales would be reasonably well maintained, albeit generally somewhat below levels or growth rates experienced in previous holiday seasons.",2019,2,459
1003,"The underlying rate of consumer price inflation in recent months was lower than the staff expected at the time of the November meeting, and the staff forecast anticipated that core PCE prices would rise a bit more slowly in 2011 and 2012 than previously projected.",2003,0,946
218,"Future policy adjustments would depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.",2016,2,209
77,"But again, our basic forecast is one which is basically, as was pointed out earlier by Mr. Hilsenrath, a moderately optimistic forecast, where growth picks up as we pass through this period of fiscal restraint",2018,2,75
190,Companies can keep their focus on cutting costs and increasing productivity; they can foster research and innovation; they can offer training and employee incentives to acquire more education and skills.,2007,2,188
598,"indeed, inflation might edge a bit lower in the early stages of the expansion.",2006,0,567
556,More information might provide a better sense of how the higher interest rates were affecting aggregate demand and perhaps also help--to a small degree--to shed light on the considerable uncertainties surrounding the relationship of output to inflation.,2018,1,527
660,"Participants agreed that the longer-run normal federal funds rate was likely lower than in the past, in part because of secular forces that had put downward pressure on real interest rates.",2004,0,626
671,"Rather, central banks have learned over the years that their policies should be devoted to fostering macroeconomic balance and price stability.",2005,1,650
45,Almost all participants reaffirmed the view that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be consistent with sustaining the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability.,2001,1,45
41,"Against this background, the risks in the outlook for prices also seemed to be tilted toward somewhat higher inflation.",1997,1,41
300,"For these reasons, I have been interested in exploring approaches that expand the space for targeting interest rates in a more continuous fashion as an extension of our conventional policy space and in a way that reinforces forward guidance on the policy rate.18 In particular, there may be advantages to an approach that caps interest rates on Treasury securities at the short-to-medium range of the maturity spectrum—yield curve caps—in tandem with forward guidance that conditions liftoff from the ELB on employment and inflation outcomes.",2020,0,292
515,Market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low,2013,0,490
306,"We’re not seeing evidence in labor markets of very substantial upward pressures on labor that could signify extreme shortages of labor that could propel inflation higher in a very rapid way, and inflation is still operating below our objective.",2022,0,299
157,"But in the shorter run, we must also develop strategies to overcome the education deficiencies of all too many of our young people, and to renew the skills of workers who have not kept up with the changing demands of the workplace.",1998,2,155
799,Some price increases had been noted,2017,1,756
901,The external sector was expected to exert a small restraining influence on economic activity over the projection period.,2021,0,851
425,"In my comments today, I will focus on the Fed's efforts to promote our maximum employment and price stability goals amid this upheaval, and suggest how lessons from history and a careful focus on incoming data and the evolving risks offer useful guidance for today's unique monetary policy challenges.",1999,2,412
39,"After a short coffee break, we have a staff presentation on the alternatives we face in setting monetary policy.",2001,2,38
283,"We have Chair Yellen’s Press Conference FINAL households who are becoming more comfortable with their debt levels and more able to service that debt, an improving job market.",2015,1,277
476,"Long-term sovereign bond yields declined notably in the advanced economies, in part as foreign central banks announced additional monetary policy easing measures.",2019,0,455
606,"Nonetheless, many participants expressed concern that ongoing developments in the housing market could have a more pronounced impact on consumer and other spending, especially if house prices declined significantly.",2019,0,575
574,"Moreover, the absence of significant growth in employment, should it persist, could at some point have significant adverse repercussions on consumer spending.",2011,0,544
225,"During the period examined, the rate of overall consumer inflation was 2.78 percent, as measured by the regular CPI-U for All Items.",2000,1,221
1090,"While overall employment conditions, the buildup of household net worth, and access to financing would bolster consumer expendi- tures, members also cited a number of limiting factors.",2004,2,1030
938,The nominal deficit on U. S. trade in goods and services narrowed somewhat in August from a high rate in July,2016,0,886
1059,"Though labor markets were expected to remain relatively tight for some time, the members saw little prospect that inflation would gather significant momentum in coming quarters.",2000,2,999
688,"Participants noted that the timing of the resumption of growth in the U. S. economy depended on the containment measures put in place, as well as the success of those measures, and on the responses of other policies, including fiscal policy.",2011,2,653
197,"So in—in—in U-6, the U-6 level of unemployment has tripled from 7 percent to 21 percent.",2016,0,192
576,"Moreover, to the extent that more-rapid growth of productivity shows through to faster gains in nominal wages, there will be fewer instances in which nominal wages will be pressured to fall.",2021,2,558
386,"Implications of Increases in Productivity Growth In the long run, the implications of increases in productivity growth rates are fairly obvious.",2022,0,375
900,"The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.",2021,1,850
878,"This direction of causality may obscure the negative relationship, running from higher inflation to lower growth, presumed to hold in the longer term.",2003,1,851
1074,Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are holding down consumer price inflation.,2015,0,1014
14,"And as I mentioned earlier, the unemployment decline last month was more than 100 percent accounted for by declines in participation.",2019,0,14
301,"Well, we—as a Committee, we do not desire inflation undershoots.",2020,0,294
153,"It is not a Taylor rule but it has the same feature that it relates policy to observables in the economy, such as unemployment and inflation.",2018,2,148
792,"Some participants judged the risks to the outlook for inflation as tilted to the downside, particularly in the near term, in light of the large amount of resource slack already prevailing in the economy, the significant downside risks to the outlook for real activity, and the possibility that inflation expectations could begin to decline in response to low actual inflation.",2006,0,749
100,"At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: ""The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output.",2009,1,97
563,"Moreover, if declines in house prices were to damp consumption, that could feed back on employment and income, exerting additional restraint on the demand for housing.",2003,0,534
569,"More subtly, my conclusion that the effects on inflation of transitory changes in commodity prices or in the value of the dollar tend to dissipate in the longer run depends on the assumption that the public's inflation expectations are well anchored.",2002,2,551
591,Most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations had been little changed in recent months.,2005,2,561
224,"During the past several years, workers across the wage distribution--not just at the upper end--have seen noticeable increases in the inflation-adjusted value of their wages.",2000,1,220
795,The idea is that providing more information about the Committee's views of the economic outlook may allow financial market prices to reflect more accurately the likely future stance of monetary policy.,1997,2,772
970,We need to avoid expectations rising so much that they become a factor that drives inflation higher.,2021,1,941
778,"So far this year, payroll employment had expanded at a faster pace than last year and the unemployment rate had declined further, although it remained elevated.",2018,2,735
942,"The pace of inventory liquidation was thought likely to moderate in coming quarters and subsequently turn to accumulation as inventories came into better balance with sales, with increasingly positive implications for overall production and economic activity.",2013,1,890
332,"Historically, recessions often occurred when the Fed tightened to control inflation.",2007,2,323
208,"For 1998, the Committee agreed on a tentative basis to set the same ranges as in 1997 for growth of the monetary aggregates and debt, measured from the fourth quarter of 1997 to the fourth quarter of 1998.",2002,2,199
111,"At some point, continued large-scale trade deficits could trigger equilibrating, and possibly dislocating, changes in prices, interest rates, and exchange rates.",2022,1,110
478,"Indeed, given the externalities involved, it seems plausible that a monopoly central bank that issued fiat money would not respond optimally to crises (it would charge too much for liquidity) or to cyclical variations (it would be maximizing the present discounted value of its seigniorage income rather than minimizing some weighted sum of discounted inflation and output losses).",2006,2,462
150,"Consumer credit jumped in May and remained strong in June, reflecting a rebound in credit card balances and continued robust growth in auto loans.",2006,2,147
14,"A fifth factor is supply bottlenecks that manufacturers and importers are currently experiencing; supply chain constraints are boosting prices, particularly for goods—less so for services.",1997,1,14
837,"The Committee also noted in March that although output had continued to expand at a solid pace, new hiring had lagged, and increases in core consumer prices were muted and expected to remain low.",2016,0,788
957,"Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the 2020 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, sponsored by the Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, New York, New York Share Thank you to the conference organizers for inviting me here to discuss what former Chair Bernanke has famously referred to as a ""hall of mirrors"" problem: a situation in which a central bank's reaction function and financial market prices interact in economically suboptimal and potentially destabilizing ways.1 In my remarks today, I will lay out the way I think about the interplay between financial markets and monetary policy, with a focus on how I myself seek to integrate noisy but often correlated signals about the economy that I glean from models, surveys, and financial markets.2 Three Observations I begin with three unobjectionable observations.",2019,2,928
685,"Participants marked up their inflation projections, as they assessed that supply constraints in product and labor markets were larger and likely to be longer lasting than previously anticipated.",2011,1,650
94,they rebounded late in the period in response to the release of firmer economic data and growing concerns regarding the sustainability of current domestic asset prices.,2016,0,91
242,"However, a couple of participants noted that the recent oil price decline could also be associated with increasing oil supply rather than softening global demand.",1996,0,233
336,"In his view, historical precedents suggested that prolonged periods of taut labor markets were eventually associated with rising inflation.",1999,1,321
832,"The technical measures we are undertaking do not represent a change in the stance of monetary policy, which we continue to implement by adjusting the target range for the federal funds rate.",2021,2,809
13,A few participants argued that maintaining a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy over the medium run would erode the stability of inflation expectations.,1996,1,13
284,"For example, in his monetary policy testimony of July 1992, Chairman Greenspan said, ""As I have often noted to this committee, the most important contribution the Federal Reserve can make to encouraging the highest sustainable growth the U.S. economy can deliver over time is to provide a backdrop of reasonably stable prices on average for business and household decisionmaking"" (Greenspan, 1992, pp.",1997,1,278
466,"Job growth last month was fairly widespread, although heavy hiring in the construction sector was due partly to efforts to repair damage from the four hurricanes that hit the southeastern states.",2005,2,445
349,"In particular, participants judged that communicating the Committee's expectation that short-term interest rates were likely to stay exceptionally low for some time could be useful because it could lead to pricing of longer-term interest rates consistent with the path of monetary policy that policymakers saw as most likely.",2003,0,334
636,Our Congressional mandate is to achieve full employment and price stability in the United States.,2002,1,615
1053,"This policy preference was based on expectations of growth in business activity at a pace averaging in the vicinity of the economy's potential, a perception among the members that the risks to such an outlook were more balanced than earlier, and anticipations that under these circumstances inflation would remain constrained.",2004,2,993
777,"Since the previous FOMC meeting, spreads on municipal bonds narrowed substantially, on net, moving near levels observed for several years before the pandemic, as investor demand exhibited some recovery over much of the period from earlier weak levels.",2003,0,734
267,"These headwinds—which include developments abroad, subdued household formation, and meager productivity growth—could persist for some time.",2022,0,262
4,"(4') U** = U* - (1/b) [q - q*] U** = short-run or effective NAIRU However, once productivity growth stabilizes at a higher level, q* will eventually catch up to q, and the disinflationary effect will gradually diminish and then completely disappear.",2007,2,4
517,"most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations were little changed, on balance, in recent months.",2013,2,491
742,The Federal Reserve and ECB Framework Reviews The monetary policy framework reviews conducted by the Federal Reserve and the ECB provide another example of monetary policy correlation.,2007,2,720
16,And downward revisions to the longer-run normal unemployment rate in a way suggests that participants are seeing more slack in the economy now than they previously did.,2013,2,16
235,"Even so, the growth rate of the ECI did not return to the levels experienced before 2008.",2003,2,231
388,"In 2019, sluggish growth abroad and global developments weighed on investment, exports, and manufacturing in the United States,",2022,0,377
354,"I believe the current move can be justified in a forward-looking variant of the Taylor Rule, where today's policy depends on the forecast of future output gaps and inflation.",2003,2,345
649,One participant suggested that the economic projections would be more understandable if they were based on a common interest rate path.,2019,2,615
555,"Monetary Policy But it is monetary policy--and the Fed's principal monetary lever, the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate on overnight loans of reserves between depository institutions--that earns the Federal Reserve all that ink and airtime.",2020,2,537
53,"Although members generally saw little risk that maintaining very low short-term interest rates could raise inflation expectations or create instability in asset markets, they noted that it was important to remain alert to these risks.",2005,0,53
210,"So there’s been a number of emerging markets—as you know, we’re suffering under the weight of declines in oil prices that are affecting their economic activity.",2021,2,205
886,The current range readily encompassed the growth rate seen likely to be associated with the members' forecasts for economic activity and prices.,2018,2,837
1011,"The vote also encompassed approval of the sentence below for inclusion in the press statement to be released shortly after the meeting: Against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the Committee believes that the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate heightened inflation pressures in the foreseeable future.",2012,1,953
1040,They noted that economic activity and employment had continued to recover,1996,2,981
655,"Prices, interest rates, stock prices, and other signals produced by market economies to encourage the distribution of productive resources have no inherent moral content.",2005,2,634
115,"Auctions of GSE debt following the conservatorship announcement reportedly attracted heavy demand, but market participants indicated that liquidity in the secondary market for GSE debt remained somewhat lower than normal.",2018,2,112
23,"A number of global factors were seen as contributing to downward pressure on term premiums, including central bank asset purchase programs and the strong worldwide demand for safe assets.",2014,1,23
534,"Members agreed that their policy decisions would remain data dependent, and they continued to include wording in the statement noting that if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee's employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely occur sooner than currently anticipated, and, similarly, that if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range would likely occur later than currently anticipated.",1998,2,505
419,"Increase the System Open Market Account holdings of Treasury securities, agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and agency commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) at least at the current pace to sustain smooth functioning of markets for these securities, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions.",2008,0,402
679,"Rents have grown dramatically, and while home sales have slowed, the continued increasing price of single-family homes indicates to me that rents won't decline anytime in the near future.",2020,1,658
351,"However, we have also found that excluding volatile food and energy prices generally gives a better sense of underlying inflation pressures that are likely to persist and dominate total inflation over time.",2006,2,342
105,"At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output.",1999,1,102
694,"Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook In conjunction with this FOMC meeting, all meeting participants--the five members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks--provided projections of output growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2011 through 2013 and over the longer run.",1997,2,659
822,"The severity of the 1981-82 recession, the worst of the postwar period, clearly illustrates the danger of letting inflation get out of control.",2017,1,799
885,"The course of underlying inflation pressures was more difficult to gauge, however.",2018,2,836
45,"And we’ve seen significant outflows of capital from those countries, pressures on their exchange rates, and concerns about their performance going forward.",2022,2,45
973,"We said that we would ""aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time"" to ensure that it averages 2 percent over time and that inflation expectations stay anchored.",2003,0,944
48,"And what it is is, it’s an expression of the thinking about individual Committee members about appropriate monetary policy and the path of the economy.",2022,2,47
1033,They also agreed that the war and related events were creating additional upward pressure on inflation and were weighing on global economic activity.,2017,1,975
398,"In addition to the headwinds facing demand, there could be persistent effects on the supply side of the economy.",2021,0,386
380,"In the residential real estate sector, home sales, prices, and construction had shown signs of stabilization in many areas and were increasing modestly in others, but a still-sizable inventory of unsold existing homes continued to restrain homebuilding.",1996,2,365
623,"Nonfarm payroll employment increased sharply further in January and February, and the civilian unemployment rate, at 4.",2010,1,591
82,"As a result, as in the January forecast, real GDP was expected to rise at a moderate pace over 2011 and 2012, supported by accommodative monetary policy, increasing credit availability, and greater household and business confidence.",2015,0,82
493,"Major reasons for optimism about the outlook were the substantial easing in monetary policy, whose lagged effects would be felt increasingly in the year ahead, and the fiscal stimulus measures that already had been enacted and might well be supplemented over coming months.",2017,0,472
817,"Strong fundamentals, including low interest rates, wide profit margins, and a high level of liquid assets, were seen as supporting expenditures on software and equipment going forward.",2002,0,772
516,Market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low,2013,0,491
60,"Although single-family housing starts had come down substantially from their peak, the drop had lagged the decline in demand, and as a result, inventories of new homes had risen considerably.",2015,0,60
693,"So tonight, I would like to take a few minutes to put this action in the broad context of the Fed’s mandate to promote the stable financial environment that will encourage economic growth.",2020,1,672
287,"However, with tightening resource constraints indicating unsustainable growth, only tentative signs that growth might be slowing, and various factors that had been damping prices now turning around, all the members agreed on the need for a slight tightening at this meeting to raise the odds on containing inflation and forestalling the inflationary imbalances that would undercut the very favorable performance of the economy.",2015,1,275
174,"Now, members of the Committee have different views about why this is likely to be true, that the funds rate—when the labor market is normalized and inflation is back to our objective—they maybe have slightly different views on exactly why it’s likely to be the case that interest rates will be a little lower than they would in the longer run.",2014,0,169
775,"The early days of stabilization policy in the 1950s taught monetary policymakers not to attempt to offset what are likely to be temporary fluctuations in inflation.15 Indeed, responding may do more harm than good, particularly in an era where policy rates are much closer to the effective lower bound even in good times.",2004,0,752
1070,Trends in wages and prices have remained stable in recent months.,2015,2,1010
53,"And, and those are—that’s again—that goes to keeping this episode as short as it can be and avoiding unnecessary business bankruptcies, unnecessary household bankruptcies, and unnecessary long-term stays of unemployment or supporting people through them so that they can maintain their financial footing and their lives and be able to go back to work in a productive way.",2015,0,52
756,The benefits achieved through more-stable prices are substantial.,2021,1,734
771,Several saw that outlook as depending importantly on continued strengthening of the labor market or on an above-trend pace of economic activity.,2014,2,729
245,"The asset purchases are about creating some near-term momentum in the economy, trying to strengthen growth and job creation in the near term, and the increases in the federal funds rate target, when they ultimately occur, are about reducing accommodation.",2012,1,240
424,"Indeed, financial services firms had already announced layoffs, largely reflecting mortgage market developments, the demand for temporary workers appeared to have softened, and the most recent weakening in construction employment was likely to continue for a while.",2022,0,407
796,"Some participants stated that low interest rates appeared to be contributing to strong sales of autos or, more generally, of consumer durables.",2009,2,753
1042,They noted that the economy had entered the new year with considerable momentum and very few indications that growth was moderating from what appeared to be an unsustainable rate.,1996,1,982
271,"To the extent the global economy is weak and the United States is strong, it’ll—we’ll wind up, you know, we’ll wind up exporting some of our demand through, through imports rather than having, having a lot of exports.",2021,1,266
654,Price shocks.,2005,2,633
1013,"The vote encompassed approval of the paragraph below for inclusion in the statement to be released shortly after the meeting: ""The Committee judges that some further policy firming may yet be needed to address inflation risks but emphasizes that the extent and timing of any such firming will depend importantly on the evolution of the economic outlook as implied by incoming information.",2001,1,955
877,The behavior of inflation had been unexpectedly benign for an extended period of time for reasons that were not fully understood.,2009,2,828
361,I should note that growth itself does not cause inflation.,2022,2,352
145,But an intriguing alternative is to set a target for the price level.,2022,2,143
465,"Job gains had remained solid, and the unemployment rate had stayed near its recent low.",2005,1,444
434,"Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations were little changed, on balance.",2014,2,417
73,"But I think that that’s a prudent move, to move in a gradual way to remove Chair Yellen’s Press Conference FINAL accommodation, with unemployment now—and not only, I should say, the unemployment rate, but I think any indicator of labor market performance and tightness that you could look at, whether it’s household perceptions of the availability of jobs, difficulty that firms report in hiring workers, the rate at which workers are quitting their jobs, the rate of job openings, all of these indicators do signal a tight labor market.",2011,1,72
222,"Going forward, consumer outlays were expected to be supported by further advances in employment and income.",2010,1,213
284,"However, with longer-term interest rates already very low, there did not appear to be a need for enhanced forward guidance at this juncture or much scope for forward guidance to put additional downward pressure on yields.",2008,2,272
897,"The expansion of M3 picked up over September and October, reflecting a strong acceleration in its non-M2 component that was associated with strong inflows to institutional money market funds and stepped-up issuance of large time deposits to meet credit demands.",2009,1,848
803,"The major reason for these significant differences in spending out of household wealth is doubtless that, while home prices do on occasion decline, large declines are rare; the general experience of homeowners is a modest, but persistent, rise in home values that is perceived to be largely permanent.",2005,1,780
121,I think that keeping interest rates low is still appropriate for our economy.,2015,0,116
971,We need to remember that in decades past it was believed that monetary policy was most effective when it was least transparent.,2021,2,942
102,"At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: ""The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output.",2009,1,99
914,The increase over the last few months in five-year measures of inflation compensation derived from Treasury nominal and inflation-indexed securities might be a warning sign that expectations were not as well anchored as they had been over the summer.,2000,1,864
220,"Given the pressure of a considerable amount of unused resources, any adverse developments that held down economic expansion would increase the probability of further disinflation.",2010,0,211
387,"In 1951, the Treasury-Federal Reserve Accord freed the Fed from the obligation to support Treasury bond prices.",2022,2,376
162,It’s where we always want inflation to be heading.,2020,2,157
599,"Nevertheless, a number of participants cited notable declines in survey measures of consumer confidence since the onset of financial turbulence in mid-summer, along with sharply higher oil prices, declines in house prices, and tighter underwriting standards for home equity loans and some types of consumer loans, as factors likely to restrain consumer spending going forward.",2006,0,568
64,"As always, each participant’s projections are conditioned on his or her own view of appropriate monetary policy.",2018,2,63
730,Recent data on consumer prices and unit labor costs led the staff to revise down slightly its projection for core PCE price inflation for 2010 and 2011,2008,2,691
623,One branch of economists holds the view that monetary policy should not be influenced by any perceived financial market bubbles.,2020,2,603
961,"We also expect it will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment, until inflation has risen to 2 percent, and until inflation is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.",2019,0,932
293,We think that the economy will need highly accommodative monetary policy and the use of our tools for an extended period.,2019,0,286
409,"In both of the examples I have just discussed, the medium-frequency evolution of market-based, survey-based, and model-based estimates of r* and expected inflation have, over time, tended to move broadly together.",2019,2,397
552,Mishkin and Jonas (forthcoming) describe the experiences of the three transition economies with inflation targets.,2020,2,534
678,"Remarkably, 30-year Treasury yields were only slightly lower than 10-year yields throughout the episode, implying that the markets had no confidence that inflation would ever return to 1950s or 1960s levels.",2004,0,657
854,"There was also a sharp acceleration in productivity over 1997, which held down unit labor costs.",2008,0,828
552,Money growth was damped by a rise in the opportunity cost of holding M2 assets (as typically occurs in periods of policy tightening).,1997,1,523
24,A number of participants indicated that the Committee should resume asset purchases only if substantially adverse economic circumstances warranted greater monetary policy accommodation than could be provided by lowering the federal funds rate to the effective lower bound.,2014,0,24
829,"The strength in corporate profits in the first quarter not only impressed economists, but it also impressed investors, who drove stock prices up earlier this year.",2001,2,806
700,"Participants' Views on Current Economic Conditions and the Economic Outlook In conjunction with this FOMC meeting, participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2021 through 2024 and over the longer run based on their individual assessments of appropriate monetary policy, including the path of the federal funds rate.",1999,2,665
48,"Although a spike in energy prices eroded real income growth in the second quarter, there were solid gains in wages and salaries.",2001,1,48
612,"Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability. """,2021,2,581
0,"""2 One useful insight into how actual inflation may affect expectations about its future path is based in the concept of ""rational inattention.",2007,2,0
40,"After a short coffee break, we have a staff presentation on the alternatives we face in setting monetary policy.",2001,2,39
603,"November 08, 2021 Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and Prospects for U.S. Monetary Policy Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the Symposium on Monetary Policy Frameworks, The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. (via webcast) Share Watch Live Outlooks and Outcomes for the U.S. Economy The U.S. economy in the second quarter of this year made the transition from economic recovery to economic expansion.1 Given the catastrophic collapse in U.S. economic activity in the first half of 2020 as a result of the global pandemic and the mitigation efforts put in place to contain it, few forecasters could have expected—or even dared to hope—in the spring of last year that the recovery in gross domestic product (GDP), from the sharpest decline in activity since the Great Depression, would be either so robust or as rapid.",2005,0,584
866,These geopolitical events also pose downside risks to growth.,2001,0,839
427,"In our most recent monetary policy statement—which was released following our January meeting—we indicated that ""with inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market,"" we expected that it would ""soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate.",2006,1,414
996,The staff's forecast for inflation was little changed from the projection prepared for the previous FOMC meeting.,2021,2,939
774,and it seems to produce results not too different in practice from those associated with central banks that are flexible inflation targeters.,2004,2,751
257,"First, the significant appreciation of the dollar over the last two years has clearly had an important restraining effect on U.S. inflation, both via the direct effect on the prices of imported goods and on the pricing power of domestic firms producing import-competing goods.",2001,0,252
922,"To cite a recent study, Faust and Wright (2007) show that real-time staff forecasts of inflation reliably outperform statistical benchmarks at all horizons and that this advantage is not solely the result of the staff's expertise at estimating near-term inflation rates.",2021,2,894
228,Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Now I would like to turn to the current economic scene and this week's FOMC decision.,1997,2,224
825,The simplest answer is that interest rates should vary to imitate qualitatively the way they would behave if the Fed were implementing a money supply target.,2017,2,802
17,"A key difference between the two groups of countries is that the countries whose current accounts have moved toward deficit have generally experienced substantial housing appreciation and increases in household wealth,",1998,2,16
112,I did indicate that I do have concerns about the scope for monetary policy.,2013,2,107
830,Surveys indicated that households’ expectations of inflation over the next year were little changed in February,2000,2,782
355,"In that vein, several participants noted that inflation expectations had been sensitive to incoming data and to communications regarding monetary policy over the intermeeting period.",1997,2,340
530,Members again mentioned concerns on the part of business contacts regarding the adverse economic implications of very large deficits for the economy over the longer term.,2003,0,501
34,"According to the Taylor Rule, the federal funds rate should adjust over time to changes in utilization rates (the gap between actual and potential output or between the unemployment rate and NAIRU) and to changes in inflation.",2004,2,33
761,"The changes to the policy statement that we made over the fall bring our policy guidance in line with the new framework outlined in the revised Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy that the Committee approved last August.4 In our new framework, we acknowledge that policy decisions going forward will be based on the FOMC's estimates of ""shortfalls [emphasis added] of employment from its maximum level""—not ""deviations.""",2005,2,739
338,"In its accompanying statement, the Committee indicated that, despite elevated energy prices and hurricane-related disruptions, the expansion in economic activity appeared solid.",1999,1,323
840,The unmooring of inflation expectations greatly complicated the process of making monetary policy,1999,2,815
1130,” The vote encompassed approval of the paragraph below for inclusion in the statement to be released shortly after the meeting: “The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters to be roughly equal.,2013,2,1068
374,"In the household sector, the ongoing deceleration in house prices further restrained the growth of home mortgage debt.",2010,0,359
642,"Over this period, inflation remained above most definitions of price stability, and the Federal Reserve was not actively seeking to reduce it.",1997,2,621
9,"And I can only say qualitatively that the Committee will continue to look at the evolution of the outlook, try to assess whether unemployment is making sufficient progress towards our objectives, and, in particular, whether the recovery is still continuing.",2018,0,9
883,This is an example of offsetting the attenuation in the response to the output gap with a more aggressive response to inflation realizations.,2003,1,856
376,"In the household sector, the rise in home mortgage debt likely slowed a bit further in the first quarter, as home-price appreciation appeared to have remained sluggish.",2009,2,361
1071,"Two members preferred to leave the target range at 1 to 1-1/4 percent, suggesting that the Committee should wait to raise the target range until inflation moves up closer to 2 percent on a sustained basis or inflation expectations increase.",2015,2,1011
66,And I need not remind you that the low inflation we now have was dearly purchased in the late 1970s and early 1980s with the highest interest rates since the Civil War and the highest unemployment rate since the Depression.,1998,0,65
698,"Some also argue that resistance to nominal wage cuts will impart an upward bias to real wages as price stability approaches or outright deflation occurs, leaving the economy with a potentially higher level of unemployment in equilibrium.",2022,0,677
916,The invasion and related events were creating additional upward pressure on inflation and were likely to weigh on economic activity.,2008,1,866
178,"By definition, multifactor productivity includes technical change, organizational improvements, cyclical factors, and myriad other influences on output per hour, apart from capital investment.",2013,2,176
285,"We have a much more resilient, stronger banking system, and we’re not seeing some worrisome buildup in leverage or credit growth at successive levels.1 So, you know, this is something that the FOMC pays attention to,",2015,2,279
340,"In keeping with the practice at meetings when the Committee establishes its long-run ranges for growth of the money and debt aggregates, the members of the Committee and the Federal Reserve Bank presidents not currently serving as members had prepared individual projections of economic activity, the rate of unemployment, and inflation for the year 1996.",2004,2,325
32,"About two years after the onset of the financial crisis, the ECI moved up slightly in 2010 and then remained essentially flat at an annual growth rate of 2 percent over a five-year period between 2010 and 2015.",2004,2,31
543,Market-based measures of inflation compensation have also picked up.,1999,1,525
901,This was a key reason why currency crises of the past few decades were so costly: Sharp depreciations of the exchange rate boosted the domestic-currency value of foreign debt and wreaked havoc with government finances and corporate balance sheets.,2004,2,874
418,"Incoming data suggested that, after a weak start to the year, foreign economic activity accelerated in the second quarter.",2008,2,401
110,"Growth in household spending moderated toward the end of last year,",2013,2,105
726,"That projection, along with the path to year-three inflation, should help the public differentiate short-term shocks to price stability from the longer-term price trends it should use for planning purposes.",2007,2,704
381,"In the staff forecast prepared for this meeting, the economy was seen as likely to expand at a moderate pace, supported by accommodative monetary policy and financial conditions.",1996,0,366
1089,"While numerous contacts reported generally disappointing holiday sales in an environment of atypically large and widespread discounting, a surge in motor vehicle sales in December fostered by aggressive sales incentives and some pickup in retail sales late in the holiday season helped to sustain moderate overall growth in consumer spending through the year-end.",2002,2,1029
824,"some market-based measures of inflation expectations and inflation risk suggested continuing concern among market participants about the risk of higher medium-term inflation, perhaps reflecting large fiscal deficits and the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.",1999,1,779
639,"On the positive side, weakness in world demand for oil was fostering a significant downtrend in energy prices, albeit with adverse effects on energy producers in this country and abroad.",1998,0,606
315,"Given stable prices, savers and investors have more confidence about the ultimate value of their investments.",1998,1,307
1077,"When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.",2009,1,1017
930,The members expected price pressures to remain relatively contained over the next several quarters in the context of what they anticipated would be only a gradual reduction of the excess capacity in labor and product markets as the recovery progressed.,2006,2,879
60,Among other questions that could be addressed would be how policy actions (as opposed to inflation outcomes) influence expectations and how sensitive Federal Reserve credibility is to short-run departures from low inflation.,1997,2,59
580,"Mortgage rates, corporate bond rates, and other yields and asset prices moved in sympathy, with important effects on the cost of borrowing and hence, presumably, on aggregate demand.",2021,1,562
252,"The jobs picture continues to be strong, with the unemployment rate near historic lows and with stronger wage gains.",2021,1,247
292,Improved prospects for a trade deal between the United States and China and accommodative monetary policy were cited as driving factors that outweighed weaker-than-expected announcements of corporate earnings for the fourth quarter of 2018 and earnings projections for 2019.,2006,0,280
884,"This is modeled by assuming that wage change depends on q*, while the inflation equation (based on the markup equation) depends on q.",2003,2,857
56,"Although productivity growth had slowed from the extraordinarily rapid pace that prevailed earlier in the expansion, data for the fourth quarter of 2004, as well as preliminary indications for the first quarter of this year, suggested that gains from efficiency remained substantial.",2000,2,56
1054,"Those developments included a recent uptick in core measures of consumer prices, a drop in the dollar on foreign exchange markets, and still elevated energy prices--all against the backdrop of longer-term inflation expectations that were firmly anchored.",2004,1,994
528,"Labor productivity growth slowed to an average pace of 1.4 percent per year over this period,",1998,2,511
265,"Flexible inflation averaging could bring some of the benefits of a formal average inflation targeting rule, but it would be simpler to communicate.",1996,2,260
1015,"With respect to this particular part of the District, Jack may discuss Florida's citrus crop, the relative health of the tourism industry, and trends in Florida real estate prices.",2005,2,983
609,"Nonetheless, participants noted a risk that the drop-back in inflation could be slower or more limited than the Committee would find desirable since resource utilization was currently tight and the pickup in price increases had been broadly based rather than being limited to a few specific sectors that could be linked to energy costs.",2019,1,578
820,"Subsequently, the expected future path of monetary policy dropped amid increasing concerns about the health of financial institutions.",1999,0,775
314,"Given recent developments, the medium-term outlook for inflation will receive particular scrutiny.",1998,2,306
831,households’ and professional forecasters’ longer-term inflation expectations edged lower.,2000,2,782
371,"If independence is also defined in terms of assuring the ability and commitment of the central bank to achieve price stability, this commitment can be protected by an explicit price stability mandate from the government.",2001,1,361
112,"At the end of the day, we all benefit from plentiful jobs and stable prices, whether we are savers or borrowers--and many of us, of course, are both.",2022,2,111
38,"And the way I would explain it is, is that inflation that’s too low will mean that interest rates are lower.",2022,0,38
19,"A few participants pointed to continued strong growth in multifamily construction, although the limited pipeline of new projects in one District suggested that activity could slow in 2015.",2020,2,19
969,"We must keep in mind that, difficult as the problem seems, consistently measured prices do exist in principle.",2021,2,940
995,The staff's forecast for inflation was basically unchanged from the projection prepared for the previous FOMC meeting.,2021,2,938
257,"The second point that I made was that when short-term interest rates hit zero, the tools of a central bank are no longer—are not exhausted, there are still other things that the central bank can do to create additional accommodation.",2012,0,252
243,Faster productivity growth was among the factors that boosted equity valuations,2006,0,239
334,"In general, financial markets were viewed as well positioned to support more vigorous expansion in economic activity.",2017,0,319
147,"Inflation has declined further below our longer-run objective, largely reflecting the lower energy prices I just mentioned.",2012,0,142
814,"Still, core consumer price indices remained relatively damped and had risen only a little over the last year, especially when measured by the PCE chain-price index, and that suggested underlying price pressures remained largely contained.",2001,2,769
646,"Palmer was a professor at Wharton, a fellow of the American Statistical Association, a worldwide expert on manpower and labor mobility, and a consultant with the Office of Statistical Standards.5 She argued that ""a single figure of unemployment, regardless of how it is defined or derived, is inadequate as a basis for selection among [policy] programs.",2007,2,625
190,"not enough to lower the unemployment rate, and labor productivity seemed to be trending sharply upward.",2005,0,181
304,"In addition, the Survey of Terms of Business Lending conducted in the first week of November showed that interest rates on C&I loans were generally little changed while spreads remained extremely wide.",2017,1,290
245,"Finally, while my assessment of maximum employment incorporates a wide range of indicators to assess the state of the labor market—including indicators of labor compensation, productivity, and price-cost markups—the employment data I look at, such as the Kansas City Fed's Labor Market Conditions Indicators, are historically highly correlated with the unemployment rate.8 My expectation today is that the labor market by the end of 2022 will have reached my assessment of maximum employment if the unemployment rate has declined by then to the SEP median of modal projections of 3.8 percent.",2006,1,240
1096,"While the underlying demand for residential housing continued to be robust and government outlays evidently were rising, the expansion of consumer spending seemed to have slowed, and outlays for capital spending were still very sluggish in an environment of business uncertainty and pessimism.",2006,0,1036
184,Domestic respondents to the April SLOOS generally reported tightening their lending standards and experiencing weaker loan demand across all major CRE loan categories during the first quarter.,2016,0,177
497,"Inflation is a significant challenge for everyone, but it hits lower- and moderate-income people the hardest, since they spend a larger share of their incomes on necessities and often have less savings to fall back on.",2005,1,481
675,"Referring to monetary policy developments in the 1980s, Greenspan writes: In recognition of the lag in monetary policy's impact on economic activity, a preemptive response to the potential for building inflationary pressures was made an even more important feature of policy.",2004,2,654
545,"Members noted that most broad measures of inflation moved together over extended periods of time, but they did not always do so over short intervals.",1997,2,516
975,"The staff assessed that households were in a better position than in the mid-2000s to weather a downturn in house prices, noting that mortgage debt growth has significantly lagged growth in house prices, leaving households with substantial equity cushions.",1998,2,920
638,"On the other hand, including a reference risked the possibility of suggesting greater concern on the part of the Committee than was actually the case, perhaps leading to the misimpression that monetary policy was likely to respond to increases in volatility.",1998,2,605
588,"My goal is not to draw conclusions on recent movements in risk premiums but rather to give you a sense of how estimates of risk premiums may influence our policy decisionmaking, to note some of the difficulties that we face in interpreting their movements, and, I hope, to stimulate further research in this already fertile field.1 At the Federal Reserve, we pay a lot of attention to financial market prices in the formulation of monetary policy.",2021,2,570
505,"Market sentiment toward the syndicated leveraged loan market also improved, with the average bid price increasing noticeably and bid-asked spreads narrowing a bit further.",2002,2,484
1052,"This increase was slower than a year earlier, as core PCE price inflation (which excludes changes in consumer food and energy prices) moved down to 1.",2004,0,992
790,The fundamental price of an asset typically is defined in terms of the discounted present value of the income stream or equivalent services that the asset is expected to provide over time.,2004,2,767
561,"Moreover, current data suggested little or no growth in overall expenditures on nonresidential structures.",2003,2,532
431,"In particular, I will focus on liquidity regulation and supervision as well as interactions with monetary policy tools.",2021,2,418
868,"The System Open Market Account Manager and the Secretary will keep the Committee informed of ongoing developments regarding the System's balance sheet that could affect the attainment over time of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and price stability. """,2002,2,819
964,"We found that a surprise increase of 25 basis points in the funds rate target typically results in a decline in broad equity indexes of about 1 percent, whereas a change in the funds rate that is expected by the market has essentially no effect on stock prices.17 Our work is just one example of a number of event-study analyses that may well shed light on the effects of monetary policy and the channels of monetary policy transmission.",2003,2,935
236,That’s probably related to gas prices and also just stock prices to some extent for other people.,2016,2,231
396,"In their discussion of monetary policy for the intermeeting period, Committee members agreed that the Federal Reserve's large-scale securities purchases were providing financial stimulus that would contribute to the gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability.",2021,0,380
747,Risks to the inflation projection also were seen as balanced.,2010,2,707
281,"For example, given the starting point for the outlook, the forecasts will trace out a path for the economy to preserve or reestablish maximum employment and price stability that will reflect FOMC participants' views of the relative variation in output and inflation that is possible in the short run.",2004,2,275
672,"Participants discussed several risks that, if realized, could necessitate a steeper path of increases in the target range; these risks included the possibility that inflation pressures could build unduly if output expanded well beyond its maximum sustainable level, perhaps owing to fiscal stimulus or accommodative financial market conditions.",1998,1,637
259,"However, it was noted that slower growth in productivity might have become the norm.",2006,2,250
10,"A commonly used analogy takes the U.S. economy to be an automobile, the FOMC to be the driver, and monetary policy actions to be taps on the accelerator or brake.",1997,2,10
446,"In that regard, the changes in the macroeconomic environment that underlie our monetary policy review may have some implications for financial stability.",2022,2,433
43,All members agreed that the risks to achieving the anticipated reduction in inflation remained of greatest concern.,1997,1,43
267,"However, reports from a couple of Districts indicated that the agricultural sector was still weak, with low commodity prices continuing to put financial pressure on farm-related businesses.",2000,0,258
169,"Many members of the Committee, participants, have said that they think policy should be based on the actual evolution of economic activity and inflation, which tends to be variable over time, and that’s why I say I anticipate it will be data dependent.",2012,2,164
1121,"With the boost from these factors fading, real GDP growth was projected to step down noticeably in 2023 and to be roughly equal to potential output growth in 2023 and 2024.",2007,2,1059
319,"You know, we’re, we’re—inflation measures are always going to be a bit volatile.",2014,2,312
392,"In their discussion of developments in asset markets, the participants' comments focused on two related issues: the low level of long-term interest rates and the continued run-up in home prices.",2021,1,376
560,"Monetary policy decisions are judgment calls, informed by forecasts and discussions about how the economy is likely to evolve, alternative possibilities, and potential responses to policy actions.",2021,2,542
807,"Staff Economic Outlook In the economic forecast prepared by the staff for the June FOMC meeting, real GDP growth in the second half of this year was expected to step up from its pace in the first half.",2012,1,762
302,"Well, you know, if the economy were disappointing, we—you know, our actions wouldn’t purely be based on inflation, we would also take employment into account.",2022,0,295
590,"Most projected somewhat slower growth through next year, and a smaller reduction in unemployment, than they had projected in April.",2005,0,560
1094,"While recognizing the improvement in a number of indicators of economic activity and labor market conditions since the fall, many members indicated that further improvement in the outlook for the labor market would be required before it would be appropriate to slow the pace of asset purchases.",2004,0,1034
1129,"Yields on nominal Treasury coupon securities declined over the intermeeting period while yields on inflation-indexed Treasury securities were roughly unchanged, which left inflation compensation noticeably lower.",2013,0,1067
357,"In the Committee's discussion of current and prospective economic developments, members commented that the statistical and anecdotal information that had become available since the October meeting continued to point to robust growth in overall economic activity, despite some indications of softening in interest-sensitive sectors of the economy.",1997,1,342
706,"Stimulus checks put money in people's pockets, and when they spend it, there will be upward pressure on prices.",2006,1,685
309,"In any case, however, the assessment of the adverse effects of the increase in longer-term rates on financial conditions and ultimately on economic activity would depend importantly upon the extent to which rates stabilized at current levels or instead continued to rise.",2017,2,294
987,"When interest rates increase, prices will undoubtedly adjust to some extent--in some cases simply by rising less rapidly than they would otherwise--and debt-service obligations will move up.",2007,1,958
695,"Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook In conjunction with this FOMC meeting, meeting participants--the 7 members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks, all of whom participate in the deliberations of the FOMC--submitted their assessments of real output growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and the target federal funds rate for each year from 2013 through 2015 and over the longer run, under each participant's judgment of appropriate monetary policy.",2012,2,660
137,"Besides influencing the near-term course of important economic variables, such as gross domestic product growth, inflation, and profits, productivity largely determines our society's long-term economic welfare.",2000,2,135
521,"January 13, 2021 Full Employment in the New Monetary Policy Framework Governor Lael Brainard At the Inaugural Mike McCracken Lecture on Full Employment Sponsored by the Canadian Association for Business Economics (via webcast) Share I want to thank the Canadian Association for Business Economics for inviting me to join you today, particularly president Bonnie Lemcke and past president Armine Yalnizyan.",2004,2,504
858,also by views about how fiscal policy might adjust to monetary policy.,2008,2,832
42,All members agreed that the FOMC statement for this meeting should again indicate that policy accommodation could be removed at a pace that was likely to be measured but that the Committee would respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to maintain price stability.,1997,1,42
1037,They continued to expect that inflation would move up toward the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term as the effects of these transitory factors waned and conditions in the labor market improved further.,2017,2,979
628,One of Dick Porter's many contributions was to develop a monetary approach to forecasting inflation at medium-term horizons.,2001,2,608
605,"Now suppose that, in an economy experiencing a stable deflation, the central bank leadership announces a fixed inflation target but then makes no progress toward that target during a given period.",2005,2,586
1100,"With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, participants expected inflation to return to the Committee's 2 percent objective over time and the labor market to remain strong.",2020,1,1040
118,Both of these views would suggest a lower level of potential output and thus reduced scope for combating unemployment with additional monetary policy stimulus.,2011,0,115
62,"As I mentioned, once you—once you’re, broadly speaking, in the range of neutral, I think it’s appropriate to be putting aside individual estimates of that and be looking at what the incoming data are telling you about the outlook, updating your estimates of what neutral might be, of what the natural rate of unemployment might be, of the state of the economy, so—and letting that lead you to adjust your outlook and, therefore, your appropriate path for policy.",2018,2,61
109,"with a healthy job market, rising incomes, and upbeat consumer confidence, the fundamentals supporting household spending are solid.",2013,2,105
444,the prices of some key commodities had increased recently.,2016,1,425
320,"Going forward, the question is not only whether inflation will fall in the coming months,",1998,2,312
331,His conclusion is that only by far-reaching decentralization in a market system with competition and free price-fixing is it possible to make full use of knowledge and information.,2021,2,322
151,Consumer food prices were little changed in August.,2006,2,148
870,The U. S. international trade deficit declined somewhat in May after reaching a record high in April.,2010,2,821
668,Participants commented on the continued improvement in labor market conditions in recent months driven by strong demand for workers.,2003,2,633
370,"In the days immediately following the Brexit vote, asset prices were volatile, and some financial markets, particularly certain foreign exchange markets, experienced brief periods of strained liquidity.",2010,2,355
860,"The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments. """,2004,2,811
611,"first, please allow me to offer a few remarks on the economic outlook, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and some of the initiatives we have announced to support the flow of credit to households and firms during these challenging times.",2020,0,591
39,"And then we’ll look to have that just running in the background and have—and have the interest rates, again, be the active tool of monetary policy.",2022,2,39
437,"In practice, the Fed operates through a committee structure and considers the recommendations of a variety of monetary rules as we make monetary policy decisions.",2005,2,424
375,"In the household sector, the rise in home mortgage debt likely slowed a bit further in the first quarter, as home-price appreciation appeared to have remained sluggish.",2009,2,360
174,Data received over the intermeeting period reinforced earlier indications that real GDP growth had turned up after having been slow in the first quarter of this year.,2016,2,168
1028,"These participants stated that, in such circumstances, a major challenge facing policymakers—especially in the presence of the effective lower bound on the federal funds rate—was to maintain a policy stance sufficiently accommodative to keep average inflation at 2 percent and thereby bolster the credibility of the Committee's new policy framework, facilitating the achievement of both maximum employment and price stability.",2007,0,970
1046,This action was taken against the backdrop of heightened concerns and uncertainty created by the recent terrorist attacks and their potentially adverse effects on asset prices and the performance of the economy.,2015,0,986
21,A majority of FOMC participants indicated that they expect core inflation to remain below our 2 percent objective and employment to fall short of its maximum level at least through the end of 2022.,2004,0,20
813,The reduced-form price equations we so often use for inflation prediction bypass direct contact with labor compensation issues.,2007,2,790
908,"Through our business contacts, we continue to hear stories about bottlenecks at almost every stage of production and distribution—for example, plants that shut down because of a shortage of one or more crucial inputs; a poor cotton crop in the United States due to weather, which is driving up prices; and clogged ports and trucker shortages.",2007,1,881
708,"Stock prices and existing home sales are somewhat correlated, a not altogether unexpected result, because each is affected by interest rates and presumably the gains from each help finance the other.",2006,2,687
770,"The distortions in the markets I have reviewed do not appear all that large, given the stance of monetary policy, and should we experience much higher interest rates and softer asset prices our resilient markets and flexible economy probably could absorb such a shock.",2004,1,748
160,"Consumer sentiment was at or close to historically high levels according to recent surveys, evidently reflecting the strong uptrend in employment and income and to some extent the very large cumulative increase in stock market wealth over the course of recent years.",2014,1,156
541,Members commented that added fiscal stimulus might prove to be a useful complement to an accommodative monetary policy in the period immediately ahead when economic activity was likely to remain below the economy's potential.,2009,0,512
665,Prospects for ProductivityLet me close with some comments on the outlook for productivity.,2000,2,644
92,"As a result, consistent with the policy implication of Bill's 1970 model, the Federal Reserve (like most other central banks) today uses the overnight interbank rate as the principal operating target of monetary policy.",2004,2,91
102,"During this time of reopening, we are likely to see some upward pressure on prices, and I’ll discuss why.",2017,0,98
211,"For now, the Committee should remain particularly vigilant to incoming information bearing on the outlook for inflation.",2007,2,202
1021,"Without the oil shock, policymakers beginning from a period of low interest rates would try to keep the economy on an even growth path as they gradually raised nominal interest rates.",1999,1,989
282,"For example, households have been able with increasing ease to extract equity from their homes, and this doubtless has helped support consumer spending in recent years, complementing the traditional effects of monetary policy.",2004,2,276
950,"Under pure monetary targeting, interest rates would fluctuate with shocks in spending.",2000,2,921
992,The staff viewed the uncertainty around the forecast for economic activity as similar to its normal level over the past 20 years.,2021,2,935
342,"However, in this framework, the current period appears to be an outlier.4 That is, even after factoring in the current-cycle dynamics of strong profit growth and relatively modest investment, a good part of the rise in liquid assets remains unaccounted for--as much as one half of the total rise in cash-to-assets--according to Federal Reserve staff estimates.",2004,2,333
350,"However, we also believe now is a good time to step back and assess whether, and in what possible ways, we can refine our strategy, tools, and communication practices to achieve and maintain our goals as consistently and robustly as possible.2 With the U.S. economy operating at or close to maximum employment and price stability, now is an especially opportune time to conduct this review.",2006,2,341
699,"Some evidence exists that quantitative easing can stimulate the economy even when interest rates are near zero; see, for example, Christina Romer's (1992) discussion of the effects of increases in the money supply during the Great Depression in the United States.",2017,0,678
223,"So, as you know, the ultimate focus that we have is on the real economy: maximum employment and price stability.",2019,2,218
58,"And, you know, we do want inflation to run moderately above 2 percent.",2011,0,57
899,"The explanations included a decline in inflation risk premiums, possibly reflecting a lower perceived probability of higher inflation outcomes",2009,2,849
554,"More broadly, signs of a pickup in growth in economic activity in some AFEs and emerging Asian economies other than China also appeared to contribute to the improvement in sentiment in financial markets.",2018,2,525
188,Same thing with economic activity.,2012,2,183
298,"Well, if the economy worsens and inflation remains relatively low, then we wouldn’t begin to exit, and, therefore, we wouldn’t change the language.",2020,0,291
710,inflation was projected to pick up gradually in association with a partial reversal of the decline in energy prices this year.,1996,2,675
725,"That is, monetary policy responds to changes in fiscal policy in much the same way that it responds to other influences on the economy, such as equity prices, exchange rates, or the demand for U.S. exports due to changed growth prospects abroad.",2007,2,703
185,"Central banks generally appear to have embraced a common model of the channels through which monetary policy functions, although the specifics and emphasis given to those channels vary according to our particular circumstances.",1997,2,183
125,I would further say that I think it’s important to emphasize that we’re not going to mechanically take the interest rate projections that participants provide and just build policy off of that.,2016,2,120
574,"Moreover, the variance of GDP growth markedly lessened as inflation tumbled from its double-digit high in the early 1980s.",2006,2,556
857,The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals.,1998,2,808
144,"In terms of the, you know, inflation, a couple things—your second question.",2013,2,139
635,"On the more positive side, there were no signs that the pace of productivity gains was currently leveling out and no evidence of rising longer-term inflation expectations.",2001,2,602
334,"How the forces of demand, potential supply, and expectations interact has probably not been changed in any fundamental way by the recent trend of globalization.",2007,2,325
636,"On the one hand, an inverted yield curve could indicate an increased risk of recession; on the other hand, the low level of term premiums in recent years--reflecting, in part, central bank asset purchases--could temper the reliability of the slope of the yield curve as an indicator of future economic activity.",2001,0,603
458,"It was possible, though, that investors' uncertainty regarding inflation prospects, not just inflation expectations themselves, had risen.",2021,1,437
241,"How long the favorable factors that continued to stimulate substantial growth in consumer expenditures would persist was uncertain, notably with regard to the outlook for stock market prices and their effects on consumer resources and willingness to spend.",1996,2,232
505,"It also requires that policy tighten or ease systematically to bring aggregate demand in line with the economy's productive potential, not only because output stabilization is a policy objective in its own right",2020,1,488
923,"The longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy.",2010,2,873
309,Funding of our current account deficit likely will become more difficult when home bias approaches its practical minimum.,2021,1,301
540,"Members cited greater, albeit still occasional, indications of heightened worker demands in labor negotiations that likely were encouraged in part by ample job opportunities.",2009,1,511
172,But what does this mean for monetary policy?,2004,2,170
542,Members commented that the continued strong increases in energy and other commodity prices would prompt a difficult adjustment process involving both lower growth and higher rates of inflation in the near term.,2009,2,513
962,"The risks to the forecast for real GDP growth and inflation were seen as tilted to the downside, reflecting recent financial developments and concerns about the foreign economic outlook, as well as the staff's assessment that neither monetary policy nor fiscal policy appeared well positioned to help the economy withstand adverse shocks.",2019,0,909
274,Wage inflation has been running at 2 percent.,2021,2,268
479,"Looking ahead, however, members reiterated earlier concerns that aggregate demand could continue to grow faster than potential aggregate supply, even under optimistic assumptions regarding future productivity gains.",2019,1,458
192,"So I think, through all of those channels, monetary policy works.",2020,2,187
107,"For example, the unemployment rate has risen by 0.3 percentage points since March, and new claims for unemployment insurance have moved somewhat higher.",2021,0,103
399,"In addition to u* and r*, an important input into any monetary policy assessment is the state of inflation expectations.",2021,2,387
664,"Participants also noted that unemployment insurance claims continued to run at a historically elevated level, but the proportion of laid-off workers who expected to be recalled was unusually large.",2003,0,630
716,"Projections of the rate of inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, had a central tendency of 1-3/4 to 2-1/4 percent, on the high side of the outcome for 1997 when the rise in the index was held down by damped increases in food prices and declines in energy prices.",2005,2,680
862,"The December employment report showed that job growth had slowed appreciably, and other indicators also pointed to emerging weakness in the labor market in the intermeeting period.",2004,0,813
46,"we have continued to analyze the effects of changes in interest rates, for example, on decisions like investment or car purchases.",2022,2,46
940,The nominal deficit on U. S. trade in goods and services widened substantially in the second quarter.,2016,1,888
645,"One participant remarked that, with inflation having run consistently below 2 percent in recent years and market-based measures of inflation compensation still low, postponing an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would help push inflation expectations up to levels consistent with the Committee's objective.",1999,0,612
929,"To reduce that uncertainty, we often use the unemployment gap rather than the output gap in these rules.19 We also need to pick values for the coefficients a and b, whether they are the values John Taylor posited in his seminal 1993 article or other values from the vast literature that has come since.20 There are still other choices to make.",2003,2,901
429,"In part, the high inflation reflects supply chain disruptions associated with the economic effects of the pandemic and efforts made to contain it.",2006,1,416
1126,"With underlying inflation expected to be relatively low, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured.",2003,1,1064
349,"However, the volatility of these and other commodity prices is such that possible future increases in these prices remain a risk to the inflation outlook.",2006,1,340
235,"That’s not going to happen without, without restoring price stability.",2016,1,230
592,"Nevertheless, the path of inflation is the biggest risk to my outlook.",1999,1,573
4,"Again, while I do not shirk the responsibility of the Fed having to do what it can to meet its mandate, obviously, a broad range of policies can affect growth and employment, and I hope that there will be a range of actions that will complement and supplement the Federal Reserve’s efforts.",2019,2,4
182,Developments in foreign trade were moderating demands on domestic resources,2016,0,175
749,Risks to the inflation projection also were seen as balanced.,2010,2,709
454,It was also noted that the weakness in homebuilding along with the continued rise in house prices suggested that supply constraints were also weighing on construction activity.,2020,1,433
165,But that forecast for growth and uncertainty about the resolution of supply constraints mean that there are upside risks to inflation next year.,1997,1,163
704,Participants' forecasts for economic growth for 2012 and 2013 were largely unchanged from their January projections and continued to indicate expectations that the recovery will strengthen somewhat over time.,1999,2,669
1055,"Those factors included the increasing spread of the coronavirus in the United States since mid-June; the reactions of many states and localities in slowing or scaling back the reopening of their economies, especially for businesses, such as restaurants and bars, providing services that entail personal interactions; and some high-frequency indicators that pointed to a deceleration in economic activity.",2000,0,995
845,"There are a variety of versions of this basic approach, depending on measures of utilization and inflation rates and depending on whether the adjustment is made in response to past and current movements in utilization and inflation rates or in response to forecasts of these variables.",2004,2,820
315,"In contrast to price inflation, labor costs appeared to have remained quiescent.",2018,2,300
988,"When long-term rates rise in response to a cyclical strengthening, it reflects, in large part, the expectation of higher short-term interest rates.",1999,2,959
256,"First, the expansion of trade may cause domestic inflation to depend to a greater extent on the prices of imported goods--not only because imported goods enter the consumer basket or (in the case of imported intermediate goods) affect the costs of domestic production, but because competition with imports affects the pricing power of domestic producers.",2001,2,251
858,The Committee's accompanying statement indicated that economic growth had been quite strong so far this year.,1998,1,809
317,"You know, monetary policy is a forward-looking exercise, and I’m going to—I’m just going to stick with that.",2014,2,310
318,"In contrast, Spanish economic activity stagnated in the third quarter, Greek GDP extended its decline, and more-recent indicators point to continued weakness in peripheral European economies.",2018,2,303
747,"The GDP (in real terms, after inflation) has been growing continuously for eight years and this long expansion, instead of petering out, has accelerated in the last couple of years.",2020,1,725
893,"This outcome would be entirely consistent with the new framework the Federal Reserve unanimously adopted in August 2020 and began to implement at our September 2020 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.2 Recent FOMC Decisions and the New Monetary Policy Framework At FOMC meetings convened since the new framework was announced last August, the Committee made important changes to our policy statement that upgraded our forward guidance about the future path of the federal funds rate and asset purchases to bring it in line with our new framework.",2006,2,866
185,Our tools work on demand.,2012,2,180
506,"Market-based measures of inflation compensation continued to indicate expectations that inflation would decline notably in coming quarters, and measures of medium-term inflation compensation fell over the intermeeting period.",2020,2,485
1030,"These policy moves would therefore prevent the far greater economic pain associated with entrenched high inflation, including the even tighter policy and more severe restraint on economic activity that would then be needed to restore price stability.",2007,1,972
585,"My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship, especially on those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation.",2013,1,567
352,"However, we now know that an unexpected and unrecognized slowdown in productivity growth occurred in 1973.",2003,1,343
100,"As keen observers of local economies, the directors here and elsewhere contribute vitally to the formulation of monetary policy by offering important insights absent, by definition, from even the most careful analysis of aggregate data.",2022,2,99
441,"In short, rising commodity prices are a better signal of strengthening economic activity than of inflation at the consumer level.",2021,1,428
633,"Operationally, maintaining price stability requires abiding by the Taylor principle of raising nominal interest rates more than one for one in response to movements in inflation, especially those movements perceived as persistent.",2001,2,612
631,"On balance, in light of the uncertainties in the outlook and given that a variety of special factors would continue to contain inflation for a time, the Committee could await further developments bearing on the strength of inflationary pressures without incurring a significant risk that disruptive policy actions would be needed later in response to an upturn in inflation and inflation expectations.",2005,2,598
89,"But to the extent that continues to be the case, that should make it easier to restore price stability.",2014,1,86
205,"Countries differ in this regard, both in formal mandate and in actual practice.12 As an extensive academic literature shows, however, the general approach of inflation targeting is fully consistent with any set of relative social weights on inflation and unemployment",2020,2,203
3,"A couple of participants noted that uncertainties concerning both the level of, and the source of shifts in, potential output made it difficult to base decisions about monetary policy on real-time measures of the output gap.",2011,2,3
481,"Looking ahead, some growth in overall consumer spending appeared likely in association with the now more firmly entrenched economic expansion.",2004,1,460
178,"Of course, we can’t do anything about long-run employment opportunities, but we can help the economy recover more quickly.",2021,0,173
1045,"They remarked that a stronger dollar, weaker demand, and lower oil prices were factors likely to put downward pressure on inflation in the period ahead and observed that this meant that the return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective would likely be further delayed.",2015,0,985
95,"As a result, recent high inflation readings are transitory and not broad based.",2004,1,94
284,"We have a 2 percent symmetric inflation objective, and, for a number of years now, inflation has been running under 2 percent.",2015,0,278
1013,"With respect to inflation, the netting of the crosscurrents suggests a modest increase in inflation in 1998, albeit from a steadily downward-revised and very low rate in 1997.",2005,1,981
75,"And, in my judgment, we may have to rely more on measures other than apparent excess demand to get reliable indications of pending changes in inflationary pressures.",2000,2,74
231,Estimates by the staff of the Federal Reserve indicate that about 40 percent of the growth in outstanding home mortgage debt during the past five years originated as financing the extraction of home equity.,1997,1,227
11,A few observed that the combination of recent labor market improvements and continued softness in inflation had led them to lower their estimates of the longer-run normal rate of unemployment.,1996,2,11
839,"The Committee also reiterated that it would continue its asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability.",2013,0,790
317,"In contrast, M3 growth slowed considerably in April after a robust March advance.",2018,2,302
667,several expected that declines in the foreign exchange value of the dollar in recent months would also likely help return inflation to 2 percent over the medium term.,2003,1,632
560,"Moreover, broad equity price indexes had declined and borrowing costs for nonfinancial firms had increased, including a recent rise in corporate bond yields across most risk categories.",2003,1,531
132,"that is, the Federal Reserve seeks to promote the two coequal objectives of maximum employment and price stability.",2007,2,131
119,"I mean, it really depends on how long it takes for wages and, more than that, prices to come down for inflation to come down.",2019,1,114
364,"In the absence of such shocks, and assuming appropriate monetary policy, participants' economic projections generally showed growth picking up to a moderate pace and the unemployment rate declining somewhat next year.",2022,1,349
974,The staff also reported that in the leveraged loan market risk spreads had narrowed and nonprice terms had loosened further.,2000,1,919
974,We should first recognize that the form of the U.S. government is different than that of most inflation-targeting countries.,2003,2,945
170,largely as a consequence of further increases in nominal labor compensation gains that would not be fully offset by growth in productivity.,2000,0,164
250,"The entire Committee is committed to achieving our 2 percent inflation objective over the December 16, 2015 medium term, just as we want to make sure that inflation doesn’t persist at levels above our Chair Yellen’s Press Conference FINAL 2 percent objective.",2021,0,245
130,"If we think that the potential growth rate of the economy is somewhere between, somewhere around 1.75 percent, 2.8 percent is strong economic growth.",2021,0,125
135,"By the same token, the rate of price inflation was lower than had been reported, consistent with the findings of a number of studies of distortions in published price data.",2022,2,132
412,"In these circumstances, the Committee believed that some further measured policy firming was likely to be needed to keep the risks to the attainment of both sustainable economic growth and price stability roughly in balance.",2010,1,396
943,The pace of job gains slowed and the unemployment rate held steady.,2013,2,891
72,"But I do think that—and I do think also that unemployment insurance benefits will run out in September, so to the extent that’s a factor, which is not clear, it will no longer be a factor fairly soon.",2011,2,71
54,"And, as I think all of us—having that expectation and that if the economy continued to progress along the lines that we expected and we continued to see the risks as balanced—do regard it as appropriate to gradually remove accommodation that’s in place by having several interest rate increases this year.",2015,1,53
577,"Moreover, we should recognize that these disinflationary effects could dissipate or even be reversed in coming years.",2021,0,559
559,"Monetary policy clearly can do little about the first-round effects of a permanent rise in energy prices, which include both its direct impact on the energy component of overall consumer prices and the pass-through of higher energy costs into prices of non-energy goods and services.",2021,1,541
424,"In my baseline view, while I do believe it will likely take some time for economic activity and the labor market to fully recover from the pandemic shock, I do project right now that the economy will begin to grow and that the unemployment rate will begin to decline starting in the second half of this year.",1999,0,411
910,The gains in employment over July and August were generally seen as larger than anticipated.,2000,1,860
1019,"With underlying inflation running below 2 percent for many years and COVID contributing to a further decline, it is important that monetary policy support inflation expectations that are consistent with inflation centered on 2 percent over time.",2022,0,987
105,"Finally, I would like to note that the Committee strives to explain its monetary policy decisions as clearly as possible, and we continue to explore ways of enhancing the clarity of our public communications.",2021,2,101
165,"Core consumer inflation had moved lower,",2000,0,160
421,"In fact, the Federal Reserve’s upcoming Community Affairs Research Conference will feature several papers that explore these issues.5 Homeownership The important issue of loan pricing aside, expanded access to mortgage credit has helped fuel substantial growth in homeownership.",1999,2,408
134,"By contrast, economic activity in China and other developing countries showed greater buoyancy.",2022,2,131
691,Participants pointed to potential interactions between financial stresses and the housing market contraction as the primary source of continuing downside risks to growth.,1997,0,656
138,"In coming months, as those earlier declines drop out of the calculation, inflation should move up closer to 2 percent and stabilize around that level over the medium term.",2022,2,133
620,"Nonetheless, with rising productivity and moderate wage gains likely continuing to help hold down unit labor costs, the outlook for subdued inflation remained promising, especially for the nearer term.",1996,0,588
82,Answering this question is central to our outlook for both of our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and price stability.,2022,1,81
579,"Mortgage rates, corporate bond rates, and other yields and asset prices moved in sympathy, with important effects on the cost of borrowing and hence, presumably, on aggregate demand.",2021,2,561
763,"Several participants noted that the unseasonably warm weather of recent months added one more element of uncertainty to the interpretation of incoming data, and that this factor might account for a portion of the recent improvement in indicators of employment and housing.",2017,2,722
797,"Some participants suggested that shifts of funds from abroad into U. S. Treasury securities may have put downward pressure on term premiums; the shifts, in turn, may have reflected in part a reaction to declines in foreign sovereign yields in response to actual and anticipated monetary policy actions abroad.",2009,2,754
63,"As a further step in enhancing the clarity of our communications, the Committee recently decided to begin publishing information about participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy—that is, the path of policy that each participant judges as most likely to foster mandate-consistent outcomes for employment and inflation if the economy evolves as expected.",2018,2,62
579,"Mortgage credit conditions generally remained tight over the intermeeting period, though signs of easing continued to emerge amid further gains in house prices.",2002,2,549
323,"Here in the United States, my colleague Governor Mike Kelley has stated that we are likely to see some disruptions to economic activity because of Year 2000 problems but the effects are likely to be temporary and quickly reversed.",1999,2,314
281,"We expect the economy will continue to perform well, with the job market strengthening further and inflation rising to 2 percent over the next couple of years.",2015,2,275
22,"And it is not—it’s not exactly the same as watching global growth, where you see growth weakening, you see central banks and governments responding with fiscal policy, and you see growth strengthening, and you see a business cycle.",2020,0,22
217,"Future policy adjustments would depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.",2016,2,208
6,A couple of participants remarked that the very low levels of inventories would likely be a factor supporting increases in production as demand continued to recover.,2019,2,6
209,So the term “trend inflation”—usually there are a variety of statistical techniques that can be used to extract a trend from a series.,2013,2,204
158,It was the year of synchronized global growth.,2021,2,153
1097,"While there were no current indications that inflation might be accelerating and no policy move was called for at this time, the members saw a need for continuing vigilance.",2006,2,1037
674,"Recently, however, incoming information has suggested that the baseline outlook for real activity in 2008 has worsened and the downside risks to growth have become more pronounced.",2004,0,653
119,"August 26, 2022 Monetary Policy and Price Stability Chair Jerome H. Powell At “Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy,†an economic policy symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming Share Watch Live Thank you for the opportunity to speak here today.",2022,2,118
88,But there’s also a role for monetary policy.,2014,2,85
484,"Looking beyond the near term, the members anticipated that as the prevailing uncertainties began to diminish, the economy's resiliency abetted by broadly accommodative monetary and fiscal polices and the continuation of a strong uptrend in productivity would underpin a gradual economic recovery.",2004,0,463
682,"Returns on indexed bonds are tied to forecasts of specific published price indexes, which may or may not reflect the market's judgment of the future purchasing power of money.",2020,2,661
738,The FOMC's primary monetary policy tool is its target range for the federal funds rate.,2003,2,716
87,"As a result, most market interest rates rose somewhat in the period after the November 16 meeting.",2013,1,85
976,"Were we to introduce an interest rate rule, how would we judge the meaning of a rule that posits a rate far above or below the current rate?",2003,2,947
270,"For all these conceptual uncertainties and measurement problems, a specific numerical inflation target would represent an unhelpful and false precision.",2000,2,265
828,"The stock market soared, and--remarkably enough--core inflation moderated.",2001,2,805
573,"Moreover, the resulting robust gains in labor productivity have been well ahead of compensation growth and have dramatically boosted corporate profits.",2006,0,555
1120,"With the boost from these factors fading, real GDP growth was projected to step down noticeably in 2023 and to be roughly equal to potential output growth in 2023 and 2024.",2007,0,1058
768,Several participants reported feedback from business contacts who were delaying hiring until the economic and regulatory outlook became more certain and who indicated that they expected to meet any near-term increase in the demand for their products without boosting employment,2014,2,726
787,The first lesson is that central banks can and should take responsibility for delivering low and stable inflation.,2004,2,764
854,The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings in light of incoming information and is prepared to adjust those holdings as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.,1998,0,805
512,Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low,2020,0,489
977,What I do want to share with you is how the equity market fits into my thinking about monetary policy.,2000,2,948
726,Real outlays for office and computing equipment continued to grow rapidly as prices of personal computers and networking equipment remained on a steep downtrend.,2008,2,688
801,"The literature on this topic extends at least as far back as William Brainard’s original paper on uncertainty and policy almost forty years ago.7 Brainard’s analysis showed that if policymakers are uncertain about how real activity and inflation will be affected over time by monetary actions, they should be less aggressive in responding to changes in economic conditions than would be the case if they knew the true model of the economy.",2005,2,778
368,"I would like to address two aspects of the issue of underemployment of minorities: first, the implications of ignoring the potential that already exists and, second, the need to encourage young people to seek the types of education and training that will meet the demands of work in the twenty-first century.",2001,0,358
694,"So unless productivity accelerates further, its disinflationary effect should continue to erode for a time.",2022,0,673
966,"We indicated that, with inflation running persistently below 2 percent, our policy will aim to achieve inflation outcomes that keep inflation expectations well anchored at our 2 percent longer-run goal.",2003,0,937
370,"If episodic recurrences of ruptured confidence are integral to the way our economy and our financial markets work now and in the future, it has significant implications for risk management and, by implication, macroeconomic modeling and monetary policy.",2001,2,360
80,Another factor that has contributed to the swing toward current-account surplus among the non-industrialized nations in the past few years is the sharp rise in oil prices.,2006,1,79
432,"Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.",2014,2,415
940,"Today, the Federal Reserve's duties fall into four general areas--some that would have been familiar to the central bankers in the Fed's early years and some that would have been unfamiliar: maintaining the stability of the financial system and containing systemic risk that may arise in financial markets supervising and regulating banking organizations to ensure the safety and soundness of the nation's banking and financial system and to protect consumers from harm in their use of credit and banking services playing a major role in operating and overseeing the nation's payment system, including providing certain financial services to financial institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign official institutions conducting monetary policy in pursuit of stable prices and maximum sustainable employment We have an all-too-recent example of the Fed as a source of financial stability in its response to the financial aftermath of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, which occurred just before I joined the Board in December 2001.",2019,2,911
270,"However, some areas that were affected by the slowdown in the energy sector experienced house price declines or increases in mortgage delinquency rates.",2008,0,261
231,"Household expenditures on new homes were likewise at an elevated level, although members reported weakness in some price segments and geographic areas of the housing market.",2001,1,222
240,"Expectations of price increases over the near-term--specifically, over the next year--have, in fact, risen noticeably on the heels of the actual increase in inflation.",1996,1,236
692,Slump in foreign domestic demand I would like to turn now to developments at the global level that may have helped to widen the U.S. current account deficit.,2020,1,671
550,"Members still saw the economic expansion continuing, and most believed that inflation was likely to stabilize near recent low readings in coming quarters and then gradually rise toward levels they consider more consistent with the Committee's dual mandate for maximum employment and price stability.",1997,2,521
493,"Inflation Targeting and Central Bank Behavior,"" Federal Reserve Bank of New York, mimeo.",2021,2,477
884,The contemplated reserve conditions are expected to be consistent with considerable moderation in the growth in M2 and M3 over coming months.,2018,2,835
439,"In response to an unanticipated movement in spending and hence the quantity of money demanded, a small variation in interest rates would be sufficient to bring money back to path but not to correct the deviation in spending.",2005,0,426
169,But this belief will persist only as long as we on the Federal Open Market Committee continue to ratify the public’s expectations that inflation will remain low and stable.,2006,1,167
863,"These concerns were centered around the fact that corporate borrowers could no longer raise funds in the bond or commercial paper markets at reasonable prices or, at some times and for some borrowers, at all.",2003,2,836
287,"We have a three-part baseline projection, which involves increasing growth that’s picking up over time as fiscal drag is reduced, continuing gains in the labor market, and inflation moving back towards objective.",2020,2,280
239,"The Committee, based on its assessment at each meeting, has felt comfortable saying that, based on its assessment of those factors, it considers that it will be likely appropriate to maintain the current target range for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if inflation remains below the 2 percent objective.",2016,2,234
88,"As a consequence, a sustainable, non-inflationary expansion is likely to involve some moderation in the growth of economic activity to a rate more consistent with the expansion of the nation’s underlying productive capacity.",2017,1,87
328,"Higher interest rates are working to temper demand and bring it into better alignment with supply, which is still constrained.",2021,1,319
903,"The faster pace of real GDP growth was expected to be supported by an easing in the restraint from changes in fiscal policy, increases in consumer and business confidence, further improvements in credit availability and financial conditions, and a pickup in the rate of foreign economic growth.",2021,1,853
661,"Participants agreed that the path of the economy would depend significantly on the course of the virus and that the ongoing public health crisis would continue to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term.",2004,0,627
954,"Unfortunately, from the point of view of both the analyst and the policymaker, the link between an asset's price and the structure of its return is hard to pin down, as it typically embodies complex factors that are inherently difficult to measure, such as expected future earnings, riskiness, and risk aversion.",2005,2,925
597,"Nonetheless, the current account deficit continued to grow as a result of the surge in U.S. investment and productivity and the associated capital inflows seeking the higher U.S. rates of return.",2003,1,578
9,"A Framework for Analyzing the Growth of Labor ProductivityA great success story for the American economy has been the resurgence of productivity growth that began around 1995.1 From 1973 to 1995, labor productivity in the nonfarm business sector increased at an annual rate of 1-1/2 percent.",1999,0,9
876,The average rate of growth of CRE loans at banks continued to be strong in October and November.,2009,1,827
562,"Moreover, economic theory indicates that the equilibrium level of short-term real interest rates would likely remain low relative to estimates of its level before the financial crisis if trend growth of total factor productivity does not pick up and if demographic projections for slow growth in working-age populations are borne out.",2003,0,533
467,"Key factors that influence consumer spending--including a low unemployment rate, ongoing gains in real labor compensation, and still elevated measures of households' net worth--were supportive of a pickup in consumer spending to a solid pace in the near term.",2005,1,446
702,Some occasions call for significant swings in currency or reserves because of seasonal demands for cash and loans.,2017,2,681
584,Most other market interest rates declined further on balance over the period in an atmosphere of greater volatility in financial markets.,2021,0,554
154,"But if our assessment is correct that inflation is temporary, it would be unwise for us to take actions that might slow the recovery prematurely by trying to stay ahead of inflation, when our best estimate is that we are not far behind.",2000,0,152
362,"In the September Senior Credit Officer Opinion Survey on Dealer Financing Terms (SCOOS), dealers indicated, on net, that they loosened credit terms applicable to several important classes of counterparties and types of collateral over the past three months amid increased demand for funding for most types of securities covered in the survey.",2022,2,347
987,the anticipated decline in the unemployment rate was somewhat slower than in the previous projection.,1997,0,931
234,"That transition itself could help bring inflation down, because, presumably, people would spend a little less on goods while they start spending more on travel and all sorts of travel services and things like that.",2016,2,229
269,"However, several participants pointed out that the 3-month change in that index had firmed recently, signaling some improvement in the inflation outlook.",2008,2,260
454,"In the labor market, about half of the 22 million jobs that were lost in the spring have been restored, and the unemployment rate has fallen since April by nearly 7 percentage points to 7.9 percent as of September.",2000,0,441
456,"In the modal outlook, monetary policy tightening to temper demand, in combination with improvements in supply, is expected to reduce demand–supply imbalances and reduce inflation over time.10 The real yield curve is now in solidly positive territory at all",2000,1,442
721,"That ex post relationship, the correlation between actual--instead of intended--domestic saving and domestic investment was the object of the seminal work by Feldstein and Horioka a quarter century ago.4 Without the evident worldwide fall in home bias over the past decade, noted earlier, the United States would not have been able to finance its recent current account deficits, and, accordingly, these deficits would have been smaller.",2002,2,699
56,"Although the unemployment rate is at a 50-year low, wages are rising broadly in line with productivity growth and underlying inflation.",1997,0,55
288,"If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings.",2015,1,276
927,The members also agreed on the desirability of retaining the assessment that the risks with regard to the outlook for economic growth were balanced.,2006,2,876
1066,"Total nonfarm payroll employment increased at a solid pace in October and November, and the unemployment rate declined, reaching 4.",2013,1,1006
983,"The staff forecast prepared for this meeting suggested that economic activity likely would start to turn up early in 2002 as inventory liquidation tapered off, and would gather strength only gradually.",2019,2,927
904,"The faster pace of real GDP growth was expected to be supported by an easing in the restraint from changes in fiscal policy, increases in consumer and business confidence, further improvements in credit availability and financial conditions, and a pickup in the rate of foreign economic growth.",2021,1,854
70,"And similar, sometimes even sharper, trajectories of house prices have been witnessed in some economies in which the central banks said they were paying more attention to asset prices.",1998,2,69
331,"In furtherance of these objectives, the Committee at its meeting in July reaffirmed the ranges it had established in January for growth of M2 and M3 of 1 to 5 percent and 2 to 6 percent respectively, measured from the fourth quarter of 1995 to the fourth quarter of 1996.",2017,2,316
181,"By reducing our scope to support the economy by cutting interest rates, the lower bound increases downward risks to employment and inflation.22 To counter these risks, we are prepared to use our full range of tools to support the economy.",2013,0,179
110,"At the same time, however, the staff increased the growth rate forecast for 2006 to reflect the boost to economic activity from the rebuilding effort.",2021,1,107
145,"Consistent with the Committee's decision to leave the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged, the Board of Governors voted unanimously to leave the interest rates on required and excess reserve balances at 0.",1996,2,142
675,Participants expected economic activity to contract sharply in the fourth quarter of 2008 and in early 2009.,2008,0,640
305,"We’re charged by Congress with trying to pursue maximum employment, and we have taken that very seriously.",2022,0,298
56,"And, at a high level, yes, I would say, and I’ve said before, that it’s really fiscal policy that is more powerful and that has much more to do with—fiscal policy can do those things that will increase the longer-run growth rate of the United States by improving productivity and labor force September 18, 2019 participation and the skills and aptitudes of workers.",2011,2,55
316,"In contrast, CRE loan growth at banks was weak in July and August, likely partly driven by the recovery of CMBS markets.",2018,2,301
478,"Looking ahead, an abatement or reversal of some of the temporary factors reducing prices was likely to raise measured inflation.",2019,1,457
282,"We had a 10 percent unemployment rate, and our congressional mandate is maximum employment and price stability.",2015,0,276
86,"But now, let’s go to your—the part of your question about inflation.",2020,2,83
815,"Still, most members projected that over the next couple of years, the unemployment rate would remain quite elevated and the level of inflation would remain below rates consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve's objectives.",2002,0,770
274,"However, some participants indicated that underlying inflation remained subdued",2008,0,263
1008,"With regard to our price-stability mandate,",2000,2,978
325,Here's a wonderful game: Assume that the ECB governing council or the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee replaced the Federal Open Market Committee and made monetary policy in the United States--or vice versa.,1999,2,316
125,"Because current inflation is affected by inflation expectations, the smaller increase in expected inflation will lead to a smaller increase in actual inflation as well.",2007,1,124
311,"In conjunction with the FOMC meeting in April, all meeting participants (Federal Reserve Board members and Reserve Bank presidents) provided annual projections for economic growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for the period 2008 through 2010.",2011,2,296
629,"another is the growing literature on the interaction of learning, inflation dynamics, and monetary policy.",2001,2,609
180,"By fostering increased interactions among central banks, academics, and the public in many different countries, globalization has helped spread a common culture that stresses the benefits of achieving price stability.",2013,1,178
326,"In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective.",2001,2,311
767,these participants noted the risk that such cautious attitudes toward hiring could slow the pace at which the unemployment rate normalized.,2014,2,726
869,"These productivity gains result from many forces, including business investment that has increased the amount and quality of capital available to the workforce, business process innovations, and the growth of innovative, research-intensive industries such as information technology and biotechnology.",2001,2,842
269,"This was before inflation really was under control, but, you know, it’s very interesting to look at the history.",2022,2,264
187,labor productivity remained on a strong upward trend.,2005,0,180
283,"For example, if financial market participants thought that the Federal Reserve were not dedicated to maintaining long-run price stability, they would be less willing to hold dollar-denominated assets and the resulting decline in the exchange value of the dollar would tend to add to inflationary pressures.",2004,1,277
846,"There are also asymmetric price effects from cost shocks—prices go up very quickly but often tend to come down more slowly, as consumers slowly learn that the bottlenecks have gone away.",2004,1,821
821,The second requirement contributes to the first and also to smoothing fluctuations in output around full employment.,2017,0,798
780,"Some business executives reportedly believed that, with aggregate demand expanding robustly and the lower foreign exchange value of the dollar putting upward pressure on import prices, a degree of ""pricing power"" had returned.",2018,1,737
797,"The implication is that trend productivity and, ultimately, potential growth are lower than expected.",2004,0,774
251,"However, growth of mortgage loans on banks' books slowed somewhat in the first half of this year.",2007,0,242
448,"In the United States, Congress has set the objectives for monetary policy in the Federal Reserve Act, as amended in 1977.",2022,2,435
580,"Most Committee members, while acknowledging the deficiencies of structural models, viewed them as useful in their efforts to understand how the inflation process was changing and also as input to inflation forecasts.",2021,2,550
292,"For example, wages and prices that are set for some period in the future will of necessity embody the inflation expectations of the parties to the negotiation",2004,2,285
875,The available data for October suggested that the contribution of the change in net exports to real GDP growth in the fourth quarter would be much less negative than the drag of nearly 2 percentage points in the third quarter.,2009,2,826
116,"Available information suggested that economic activity in the major foreign industrial countries continued to advance, but at an uneven pace; in Germany, activity rebounded from the contraction in the first quarter, while in Japan a considerable slowing of growth had occurred in the second quarter after very rapid expansion in the first quarter.",2018,2,113
524,"subsequently moved up against the backdrop of an improving global growth outlook, higher commodity prices, depreciation of the dollar, and the stronger-than-expected reading on core inflation in the December CPI release.",2006,1,496
212,"Despite the progress to date and the signs of acceleration in the recovery, employment is still considerably short of where it was when the pandemic disrupted the economy and it is well below where it should be, considering the pre-pandemic trend.",1999,0,209
47,"Although in a number of sectors of the economy the imbalances between demand and supply—including labor supply—are substantial, I do continue to judge that these imbalances are likely to dissipate over time as the labor market and global supply chains eventually adjust and, importantly, do so without putting persistent upward pressure on price inflation and wage gains adjusted for productivity.",2006,2,46
523,"Jorgenson, Ho, and Stiroh use a similar methodology and find a range from a little less than 1-1/2 percent to about 3 percent with a central tendency of around 2-1/4 percent.5 These estimates are clearly plausible, but history does raise some warning flags concerning the length of time that productivity growth continues elevated.",2004,0,506
1108,"With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent.",1999,2,1047
514,It is precisely because none of these preconditions hold that monetary policy is so difficult and principles are needed to guide its implementation.,1999,2,497
85,"As U.S. business investment has recently begun a cyclical recovery while residential investment has remained strong, the domestic saving shortfall has continued to widen, implying a rise in the current account deficit and increasing dependence of the United States on capital inflows.9 According to the story I have sketched thus far, events outside U.S. borders--such as the financial crises that induced emerging-market countries to switch from being international borrowers to international lenders--have played an important role in the evolution of the U.S. current account deficit, with transmission occurring primarily through endogenous changes in equity values, house prices, real interest rates, and the exchange value of the dollar.",2022,1,84
551,"Misconceptions about Inflation Targeting I would like to turn now, briefly, to comment on a few key misconceptions about inflation targeting that have gained some currency in the public debate.",2020,2,533
377,"In the housing sector, demand had continued to display appreciable strength in recent months in association with relatively moderate mortgage rates and very positive consumer assessments of homebuying conditions.",2009,2,362
768,The cutback in residential construction has directly reduced the annual rate of U.S. economic growth about 3/4 percentage point on average over the past year and a half.,2004,0,746
328,"In discussing the increases in U. S. longer-term interest rates that occurred in the wake of the June FOMC meeting and the associated press conference, meeting participants pointed to heightened financial market uncertainty about the path of monetary policy and a shift of market expectations toward less policy accommodation.",2001,1,313
545,"May 13, 2021 The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Governor Christopher J. Waller At The Global Interdependence Center's 39th Annual Monetary and Trade Conference, The LeBow College of Business, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (via webcast) Share Watch Live Thank you, Kathleen, and thank you, George and the Global Interdependence Center, for the invitation to speak to you this afternoon.",1999,2,527
296,"For instance, monetary policymakers must accurately assess how disasters such as hurricanes, wildfires, and flooding affect labor markets, household and business spending, output, and prices.7 In deciding whether to alter monetary policy or, instead, to ""look through"" such shocks, policymakers need to assess the likely persistence of the effects and how widespread they are.",2020,2,288
125,"Broad stock price indexes rose, on net, over the intermeeting period, as investors responded to strong second-quarter earnings reports and indications that the economy may be stabilizing.",1999,2,122
431,Indicators for China in July pointed to only a modest slowing of output growth from its torrid pace in the first half of the year.,2016,2,414
617,"Nonetheless, the risks to the forecast for real GDP growth were viewed as tilted a little to the downside, especially because the economy was not well positioned to withstand adverse shocks while the target for the federal funds rate was at its effective lower bound.",1996,0,585
458,"In the past, a reasonable goal might have been to maintain a zero deficit in our on-budget accounts--those accounts that exclude the Social Security and Medicare surplus--and to begin a serious discussion of reforms to Social Security and Medicare to bring them closer into actuarial balance.",2021,2,444
172,"Crude oil prices continued to rise, reaching record levels in nominal terms over the intermeeting period.",2016,1,166
519,It will take time for the cumulative effect of tighter monetary policy to work through the economy broadly and to bring inflation down.,2000,1,502
981,"The staff forecast for total PCE price inflation in 2018 was revised up slightly, mainly because of a faster-than-expected increase in consumer energy prices in the second half.",2019,1,925
615,"Of course, the cost of this critical stabilization was the high unemployment and lost output associated with the sharp 1981-82 recession.",2002,0,595
461,"Job gains had been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate had remained low.",2005,1,440
2,"After precipitous drops in March and April, employment rose strongly in May and June as many people returned to work from temporary layoffs.",2019,1,2
304,"We’re also, as part of our review, looking at potential innovations, changes to the way we think about things, changes to the framework that would lead us—that would be more supportive of achieving inflation on a 2 percent—on a symmetric 2 percent basis over time.",2022,2,297
238,"Eventually, financial markets may develop the instruments and associated analytical techniques for unearthing these implicit changes in the general price level with some precision.",1996,2,234
90,"But you didn’t under the merely adverse scenario, which featured an inflation shock followed by a quick rise in short-term rates.",2014,1,87
717,Term premiums could be lower when inflation expectations are well anchored or the macroeconomy is less volatile.,2005,2,696
757,The boom was fueled by a sustained acceleration of productivity and an accompanying rise in corporate profits--fundamental changes that justified a major rise in equity prices.,2021,0,735
133,"By 2009, the forecasts for both the headline and core PCE price indexes showed inflation receding from its 2008 level, in line with the previous forecasts.",2022,2,130
387,"forecasts of more moderate growth in aggregate demand at a pace around potential output had substantially reduced the odds on rising inflation, the risks still were pointed in that direction on balance.",2014,2,371
21,And inflation is well above target.,2020,1,21
955,"Using more-conventional specifications of Phillips curves, the research at the Federal Reserve Board (Ihrig and others, 2007) and the OECD (Pain, Koske, and Sollie, 2006), as well as Ball (2006), finds that foreign output gaps are not important determinants of domestic inflation.",2005,2,926
324,"Here is where unit labor costs, or specifically the relationship between productivity growth and wage increases, would come into play.",1999,2,315
29,And part of that just is the effect of lower interest rates.,2011,0,29
571,"Moreover, investing in EMEs has become more attractive as many EMEs have improved their macroeconomic policies and institutional frameworks over recent decades; growth differentials may partly be reflecting these improvements.",2006,2,553
548,"Median inflation in the nine countries likewise declined, averaging 9-1/2 percent in 1995-99 and 5 percent in 2000-04.Return to text 4.",2017,2,530
350,"In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.",1997,0,335
3,"Again, that’s not a forecast, I’ve made a hypothesis, which would imply slower improvement in unemployment.",2019,0,3
558,"Moreover, a change in the ranges might be misinterpreted as a signal of greater reliance on the broad monetary aggregates in the formulation and conduct of monetary policy.",2018,2,529
210,"Despite some recent turbulence, owing in part to geopolitical events, stock prices have logged robust gains over the past 3-1/2 years, and broad equity indices have now retraced most of the ground lost between 2000 and 2002.",2021,2,207
140,"In light of increased uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, we now emphasize that the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion with a strong labor market and inflation near its 2 percent objective.",2013,0,135
111,"At the same time, the incentive to take advantage of increasingly efficient high-tech equipment and software typically available at declining prices would continue to provide an important underpinning for further large gains in investment spending, with favorable implications for continued rapid growth in productivity.",2021,2,108
302,"Fourth and finally, the statement codifies the key lesson from the Global Financial Crisis—that financial stability is necessary for the achievement of our statutory goals of maximum employment and price stability.",2008,2,294
261,"The “extended period” language is conditioned on exactly those same points: “Extended period” is conditioned on resource slack, on subdued inflation, and on stable inflation expectations.",2015,0,256
26,"And obviously there are benefits from a strong economy to every household in the economy, including savers, from having a better job market and a more secure economy.",2011,2,26
562,"Monetary policy seeks to buffer the economy from unexpected adverse disruptions, or ""shocks.""",1997,2,544
621,"On this path, unemployment would decline modestly below current estimates of the natural rate and remain there for some time.",2017,1,601
367,"I will then turn to three challenges our dynamic economy is posing for policy at present: First, what would the consequences of a sharp rise in the price of oil be for the U.S. economy?",2001,1,357
889,This linkage establishes one important connection between the FOMC's target funds rate and interest rates more broadly.,2020,2,862
428,"In our new framework, we acknowledge that policy decisions going forward will be based on the FOMC's estimates of ""shortfalls [emphasis added] of employment from its maximum level""—not ""deviations.",2006,0,415
463,"In these circumstances, I believe, it is appropriate to put greater weight on incoming data to determine whether the stance of monetary policy should be changed.",2020,2,449
1043,They noted that the realization of such a development could make it harder for the Committee to achieve 2 percent inflation over the longer run.,1996,2,983
613,"Nonetheless, the members also noted that the rise in compensation increases had been damped and that there continued to be few indications of accelerating price inflation in the statistical and anecdotal information available at this time",2021,2,582
282,"However, those concerns generally were seen as outweighed by the benefit of avoiding tying the Committee's decision too closely to the unemployment rate alone,",2008,2,270
663,Participants also generally agreed that the recent data had not led them to significantly change their outlooks for the most likely rates of economic growth and inflation in coming quarters.,2004,2,629
506,It can be argued that this meant getting the economy back to its 2019 state with very low unemployment and inflation near 2 percent.,2020,2,489
815,"The remarkable coming together of technologies that we label IT has allowed us to move beyond efficiency gains in routine manual tasks to achieve new levels of productivity in routine information-processing tasks that previously depended upon other facets of human input--computing, sorting and retrieving information, and acting on pieces of information.",2007,2,792
918,"The labor market improved in August, and the unemployment rate edged down to 5.",2008,1,868
993,"The staff's June projections for the unemployment rate, real GDP growth, and inflation over the next few years were all a little lower, on balance, than those in its March forecast.",2021,2,936
664,Proponents of this strategy sometimes describe this approach as reducing inflation cycle-to-cycle or describe the economy as being one recession from price stability.,2000,1,643
16,A few participants judged that the expectations regarding the path of the federal funds rate implied by prices in financial markets were currently suggesting greater provision of accommodation at coming meetings than they saw as appropriate and that it might become necessary for the Committee to seek a better alignment of market expectations regarding the policy rate path with policymakers' own expectations for that path.,2020,0,16
136,"Because, under a simple feedback policy, private-sector expectations are likely to be broadly consistent with the central bank's plans, the effectiveness of monetary policy would be enhanced as well.",2007,2,134
297,"In Japan, private consumption rebounded strongly, and private investment and net exports continued to boost growth.",2006,2,283
229,"So, you know, as I mentioned, the Committee acutely feels its obligation to move to make sure that we restore price stability and is determined to use its tools to do so.",2014,1,224
356,"I look forward to my conversation with Steve Liesman and to your questions, but first, please allow me to offer a few remarks on the economic outlook, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and our new monetary policy framework.",2003,2,347
292,"We heard anecdotes today in the meeting about firms that might be government contractors that were, you know, not sure about whether the contracts would still be in place come January and making employment decisions based on that.",2019,2,285
871,This aggregate growth-accounting framework forms the economic underpinning of key comprehensive productivity statistics produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.,2021,2,844
1006,"The unemployment rate was likely to remain low going forward, and various participants remarked that there were some indications that further strengthening in overall labor market conditions was possible without creating undesirable pressures on resources.",2003,2,949
344,"However, making significant use of this option would bias credit flows in the direction of depository institutions and, if the volume of these loans were large enough, could affect the interest rates on the assets, specifically bank loans held by such institutions.",2004,2,335
320,"You know, what you hear out there is that demand—you talk to banks, and they’ll say demand for loans is very, very low right now.",2014,0,313
934,The moderation reflected lower growth in most major expenditure sectors.,2012,0,883
86,"As a result, growth of spending on consumer durables was expected to be appreciably below the rapid pace in the first half of last year, and housing demand would increase only a little from its recent level.",2015,2,84
286,"if you ask me, is this a significant factor shaping monetary policy now, well, it’s on the list of risks, it’s not a major—it’s not a major factor.",2015,2,279
68,"And as reserves reach durably ample levels, we intend to slow the pace of purchases such that our balance sheet grows in line with trend demand for our liabilities.",1998,1,67
217,"During expansions, equity prices tend to rise, although they often decline before a downturn in the economy.",2017,2,214
961,"The review of regional economic developments by the Federal Reserve Bank presidents pointed to moderate expansion in economic activity across much of the nation, though growth was described as modest in a few regions and relatively robust in some others.",2019,2,908
912,"The household saving rate, which had already risen considerably, would eventually level out and cease to hold back consumption growth.",2000,2,862
166,"Core consumer price inflation continued to slow, and inflation expectations remained subdued over the closing months of 2003.",2000,0,161
7,An unexpectedly sharp increase in wages or inflation could tell you that you’re reaching those points.,2018,1,7
360,"I shall endeavor to place this most unusual phenomenon in the context of the broader changes in our economy and, hopefully, explain why the value of education, especially to enhance advanced skills, is so vital to the future growth of our economy.",2022,2,351
677,"Participants expected that productivity growth would pick up as firms slowed hiring to a pace more in line with output growth but acknowledged that the improvement might be limited, particularly if business investment spending were to remain soft.",2008,2,642
203,"Conversely, fiscal policy expansion in the surplus countries could be used to augment domestic demand, but any such adjustments would need to take account of medium-term goals for fiscal consolidation.",2020,0,201
256,"However, in the view of most members, the outlook for both economic activity and price pressures remained very uncertain, and thus the timing and magnitude of future policy actions was quite unclear.",2014,2,247
355,"I have downplayed the role of the U.S. federal budget deficit today, and I disagree with the view, sometimes heard, that balancing the federal budget by itself would largely defuse the current account issue.",2003,2,346
1058,Those participants saw substantial slack in resource utilization and hence continued to judge that inflation was likely to remain subdued over the medium term as the economy continued to recover.,2000,0,998
666,"Pure bubbles--increases in asset prices that are 100 percent air--are, I suspect, rare.",2000,2,645
232,"Even as the outlook for real activity has weakened, there have been some important developments on the inflation front.",2003,1,228
707,"Stock options are incorporated, based on gains upon exercising the options, in the productivity and cost measure, but not in the ECI.",2006,2,686
1101,"With capacity utilization already at high levels, relatively rapid growth in inventory investment, if it were superimposed on stronger-than- projected expansion in final demand, could portend serious pressures on resources and inflationary consequences for the economy.",2020,1,1041
968,We might look to the historical experience with oil price shocks in the 1970s—not a happy story.,2021,2,939
80,"But in many countries around the Chair Yellen’s Press Conference FINAL world that are important commodity exporters, the decline we’ve seen in oil prices has had a depressing effect on their growth, their trade with us and other trade partners, and caused problems that have had spillovers to the global economy as well.",2018,0,77
823,Survey and market measures of long-term inflation expectations did not suggest that the earlier higher inflation readings were going to persist.,1999,2,778
882,This is a tangible recent example of the need both to judge how the equilibrium real interest rate that is relevant for policy might have changed from a perceived long-run level and to set policy against the background of such an understanding.,2003,2,855
715,Private nonfarm payroll employment increased appreciably on balance over September and October.,1996,1,679
273,it does have a bearing on the inflation outlook.,2021,2,267
605,"Nonetheless, given a recovery in U. S. domestic demand approximating their current forecasts, growth in imports likely would exceed that of exports by a wide margin over the forecast horizon.",2014,1,574
586,"My fellow governors and I routinely receive from our staff a translation of the term structure of Treasury yields into implied forward rates, volatility inferred from options prices, and paths for expected monetary policy action consistent with futures prices.",2021,2,568
195,"So for many, many years, we’ve been far from maximum employment and stable prices, and so the need for accommodative policy has been—has been clear.",2016,0,190
242,"The Federal Reserve’s response is guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people, along with our responsibilities to promote the stability of the financial system.",2020,1,237
997,"While recognizing the value of smoothing, I still feel that in the interest rate targeting regime the Fed now uses, we should at times be ready to change interest rates quite quickly in response to economic conditions.",2019,2,968
111,"However, at 7.7 percent, the unemployment rate remains elevated.",2013,0,106
644,"Overall, research indicates that trade with developing economies in particular has slowed the rate of growth of import prices faced by industrialized countries, with estimates of the reduction ranging widely from 1/2 to 2 percentage points.",2007,2,623
141,"In other cases, it’s pretty clear that inflation has spread more broadly across services.",2013,1,136
549,"Members saw the persistence of a relatively vigorous expansion in overall economic activity as a likely prospect in the context of continuing stimulus from fiscal and monetary policies, accommodative financial conditions, growing business optimism, favorable consumer sentiment, and robust increases in productivity.",1997,0,520
533,"Lessons from Past Productivity Booms First, many of the technological innovations associated with past productivity booms were general purpose technologies (GPTs) with widespread applicability.",2005,2,515
934,"To the extent that these producers are foreign, there should be a corresponding drop in domestic demand.",2007,0,905
978,"The staff continued to view the uncertainty around its projections for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation as generally similar to the average of the past 20 years.",1998,2,923
6,"Also, the Committee will pay close attention to measures of inflation expectations to ensure that those expectations remain well anchored.",2018,1,6
148,"Construction employment posted another large increase, probably owing in part to hurricane-related activity.",2006,2,145
343,"However, it is not yet clear how high we will need to raise the federal funds rate and how much time will pass before we begin to see inflation moving back down in a consistent and lasting way.",2004,1,334
128,"Because good forecasts are so crucial to good monetary policy, I hope and expect to see a great deal more work exploring the robustness of alternative forecasting methods.",2003,2,127
498,"Inflation is much too high, and I strongly believe that bringing inflation back to our target is a necessary condition for meeting the goals mandated by Congress of price stability and maximum employment on a sustainable basis.",2005,1,482
590,"falling non-oil import prices likely subtracted 1/4 percentage point from the annual rate of core inflation.10 Finally, the trajectory of federal government debt relative to GDP and views regarding the debt's sustainability can also influence the effects of fiscal policy.",2021,2,572
529,"multifactor productivity growth fell to a pace of 0.4 percent, the slowest pace of any of the periods shown on the table.",1998,2,511
167,But the cumulative force of recent developments appears likely to yield a slowing in the pace of growth next year.,2006,0,165
167,Long-term unemployment in the current economy is—is the worst—really the worst it’s been in the postwar period.,2012,0,162
136,"Clearly, businesses regarded such investments as highly profitable, and they appeared to be leading to gains in productivity that in turn were helping to offset rising compensation and to maintain profit margins in highly competitive markets.",2022,2,133
362,"I strongly supported the FOMC's decision last week, and I expect to support additional rate increases until we see significant progress toward bringing inflation down.",2001,1,353
416,"In those Districts in which activity had been adversely affected by the drop in energy prices, drilling activity was either contracting less rapidly or was stabilizing.",2010,0,399
655,"Over the same period, demand for auto loans reportedly strengthened further at many banks.",2012,0,621
999,"The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.",2005,0,942
168,"But the importance of price stability has sometimes been insufficiently appreciated in our central bank's history, and, as Allan Meltzer will soon point out, such episodes have had unfortunate consequences.",2006,1,166
725,"Real GDP was forecast to decline and the unemployment rate to rise, on net, in the first half of this year.",2008,0,687
473,"Indeed, I would argue that over the past eight years, the framework served us well and supported the Federal Reserve's efforts after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) first to achieve and then, for several years, to sustain—until cut short this spring by the COVID-19 pandemic—the operation of the economy at or close to both our statutorily assigned goals of maximum employment and price stability in what became the longest economic expansion in U.S. history.",2006,1,458
821,Such a directive would imply that any tightening should be implemented promptly if developments were perceived as pointing to rising inflation.,1999,1,776
216,Domestic demand growth has slumped in many foreign economies because of varying combinations of an increase in saving rates and a decline in investment.,2017,0,213
182,Our current framework for implementing monetary policy is working very well.,2021,2,177
300,"In addition, contacts reported that softer export sales, weaker economic activity abroad, and elevated levels of uncertainty regarding the global outlook were weighing on business sentiment and leading firms to reassess plans for investment spending.",2015,0,286
443,"Inflation had been subdued of late,",2004,0,424
85,But my colleagues and I continue to believe that the factors that are responsible this year for holding inflation down are likely to prove transitory.,2020,2,82
159,"But low rates are not solely or even primarily a result of the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policies; they are rooted in the market's expectations of low inflation and the weakness of the economic recovery, factors weighing on rates not just in the United States but throughout the advanced economies.7 Given low real rates and low inflation, expected nominal returns should be low across all asset classes.",1998,0,157
146,"Consistent with the optimism driving stock prices, spreads of corporate bond yields over comparable-maturity Treasury yields narrowed markedly across the credit spectrum, most notably for debt securities of the lowest credit quality firms.",1996,0,143
107,"As we gain experience with the enhanced forecasts, we will continue to evaluate how best to promote stability of both prices and employment.",2004,1,106
688,"Shortly after 9 a.m. each morning, the Desk staff and staff members at the Board of Governors confer over the phone to discuss their respective estimates of the day's demand for balances as well as to consider factors that may affect supply.",2006,2,667
861,"These authors point out (as have many others) that, when nominal interest rates are at or near zero, the central bank can lower the real rate of interest only by creating expectations of inflation on the part of the public.",2003,2,834
190,"Smoothing through these variations, average monthly job growth appears to have stepped down from last year’s strong pace, but job gains remain well above the pace necessary to provide jobs for new labor force entrants.",2020,2,185
67,"And I'm pleased to have the opportunity to share with you, the students of South Dakota State University (SDSU), my experience as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and my outlook for the U.S. economy.1 Today I will speak to you about my outlook for the U.S. economy and what the Federal Reserve has been doing to support economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery.",1998,2,66
29,"A variety of indicators, along with anecdotal reports, suggested that employment was expanding at a fairly good pace and labor compensation was rising moderately.",2003,1,29
173,But what if the Fed were actually to propose a soft form of inflation targeting?,2004,1,171
589,"Most participants remarked that the standard of ""substantial further progress"" had been met with regard to the Committee's price-stability goal or that it was likely to be met soon.",2007,1,559
55,"Although the unemployment rate is around a 50-year low, wages are rising broadly in line with productivity growth and underlying inflation.",2004,1,54
1064,"Total U. S. consumer prices, as measured by the PCE price index, increased 1.",1998,1,1004
177,"But, in the interim, the absence of increasing inflation pressures meant that the Federal Reserve did not need to tighten to bring demand back in line with the potential as soon as it otherwise might have needed to.",2013,0,175
999,"While these studies allow for differences in the weighting of price indexes across different income groups, they rely on the same elementary price indexes for subcategories of goods and services.",2017,2,970
892,The ebbing of stimulus from last year's tax cuts also could tend to slow growth in consumer spending.,2011,0,843
980,What does this suggest about monetary policy strategy going forward?,2022,2,951
941,Together these structural changes would imply that the economy can now operate at a lower unemployment rate and at a higher growth rate than previously without inflationary consequences.,2019,0,912
593,"Mr. Kocherlakota dissented because, in his view, the new forward guidance in the fifth paragraph of the statement would weaken the credibility of the Committee's commitment to its inflation goal by failing to communicate purposeful steps to more rapidly increase inflation to the 2 percent target and by suggesting that the Committee views inflation persistently below 2 percent as an acceptable outcome.",2005,0,563
93,"At longer maturities, yields drifted lower over most of the intermeeting period in response to incoming data that suggested economic growth would remain moderate and inflation subdued,",2016,0,91
438,"In recent years, aggressive cost-cutting in the United States has been linked to greater emphasis on maximization of shareholder value and less on growth and diversification, which was more prominent in the 1970s and 1980s.",2005,2,425
441,Inflation expectations that currently appeared by various measures and survey results to be essentially flat or even to have declined a bit were reinforcing the factors holding down price increases.,2004,2,423
1017,"Their forecasts of consumer price inflation for the year, as measured by the PCE chain-type price index, were centered in a range of 1-1/4 to 1-1/2 percent, with a full range of 1-1/4 to 1-3/4 percent.",2001,2,959
342,"In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal.",2004,2,327
660,Productivity change for this output concept has increased even more than for traditional concepts.,2001,0,639
608,"Nonetheless, participants generally saw the unemployment rate as still elevated and were not yet confident that the recent progress toward the Committee's employment objective would be sustained.",2019,0,577
838,"The Committee also noted that output had continued to expand at a solid pace, new hiring had appeared to pick up, and although incoming data on inflation showed that it had moved somewhat higher, longer-term inflation expectations had remained well contained.",2016,1,789
52,"Although the Fed hasn't started raising rates or reducing the balance sheet, interest rates have moved up notably.",2004,1,51
740,"The Fed's credibility, earned over decades of low inflation, is a powerful policy tool that is critical to our long-term success.",2007,2,718
179,"Despite further declines in vacancy rates and rising real estate prices, business spending on nonresidential construction also seemed to have been lackluster, with such activity not having changed much since last summer.",1999,2,173
429,"Indeed, the members did not rule out the emergence of appreciably lower inflation.",2016,0,412
984,"When anticipations of Fed tapering led to higher U.S. interest rates and higher market volatility, these trades may have been quickly unwound, engendering particularly sharp declines in EME exchange rates and asset prices.",2007,2,955
488,"Indeed, the commitment to long-run price stability can afford the central bank some flexibility in employing its tools to address shorter-run economic issues.",2005,2,472
372,"In the end, they concurred that the statement should note that economic growth had rebounded in the current quarter but that it appeared likely to moderate to a more sustainable pace in coming quarters.",2010,2,357
108,"As you can see, transforming the information available from published statistics into concepts useful for assessing the consequences of monetary policy is, in fact, quite complex.",2004,2,107
1091,"While participants generally felt that the pace of underlying productivity growth remained robust, careful attention would need to be paid to developments regarding unit labor costs and profit margins.",2004,2,1031
525,"King (1999) shows that, if a long enough interval is given to hit the target, there may be little difference between a price level target and an inflation rate target.",1998,2,508
791,Some participants judged that a less accommodative future stance of policy would likely be warranted and that the Committee should convey a strong commitment to address elevated inflation pressures.,2006,1,748
115,"I don’t think we look at—I understand what you’re asking, but we’re looking at—our mandate is price inflation and maximum employment, and that’s what we’re looking at with setting interest rates.",2019,0,110
134,"If you look at the number of job openings compared to the number of unemployed, it’s—we’re, we’re clearly on a path to a very strong labor market with high participation, low unemployment, high employment, wages moving up across the spectrum.",2021,1,129
272,"Wage growth is not—there are many factors that affect it—it’s not definitive in any sense in determining our policy,",2021,2,267
791,"The growth of subprime mortgage lending is one indication of the extent to which access to credit has increased for all households, including those with lower incomes.",1997,2,768
275,"However, some participants noted that the recent rise in the prices of oil and other commodities, as well as increases in import prices stemming from the decline in the foreign exchange value of the dollar, could boost inflation pressures.",2008,1,264
105,"As the economy approached full employment, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the monetary policymaking arm of the Federal Reserve System, was faced with the classic problem of managing the mid-cycle slowdown--that is, of setting policy to help guide the economy toward sustainable growth without inflation.",2022,1,104
985,The staff interpreted the increases in prices of energy and nonmarket services that recently boosted consumer price inflation as largely transitory.,2019,2,929
186,"PCE core is at about 2, and I think we see that, you know, the temporary increase in headline inflation as being a function of oil prices probably, and we expect inflation to go back down to 2 percent.",2012,1,181
7,* * * What then are the implications of this largely irreducible uncertainty for the conduct of monetary policy?,1999,2,7
924,it was noted that this drop could be explained by a reduction in the number of respondents who had previously expected relatively high inflation outcomes.,2010,2,874
243,"The Phillips curve has become, according to most estimates, quite flat in the sense that movements in unemployment have only a modest impact on inflation, so we shouldn’t overblow how large that is.",2020,2,238
410,"In these circumstances, inflation pressures could be expected to remain subdued and some further disinflation might well occur.",2022,0,394
477,"Venezuela provides one counterexample, with a long-term inflation forecast now of 15 percent.",2006,2,461
460,"Job gains had been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate had declined substantially.",2021,1,439
375,"If the demand growth that caused the oil price increases is domestic, it could mean that the price shock might be less permanent.",2006,1,365
776,"The economy continued to perform well into 2007, with solid growth through the third quarter and unemployment remaining near recent lows.",2005,1,753
184,"Our role, though, is also to, you know, to make sure that—that maximum employment happens in a context of price stability and financial stability, which is why we’re gradually raising rates.",2021,1,179
229,"Ensuring that every American has the chance to improve his or her economic circumstances through hard work, saving, entrepreneurship, and other productive activities is essential for building healthy communities and achieving sustainable economic growth.",1997,2,225
777,The effect can be accentuated by the temporary parking in liquid accounts of the proceeds from the more-frequent turnover and refinancings that often accompany a house price boom.,2005,1,754
475,"Long-term government bond yields declined and headline equity indexes increased, on net, in most of these countries, with bank stock prices in the euro area rising more than broader indexes.",2022,0,454
465,will soon fall well below its underlying trend as the price of energy falls back to its initial level.,2020,2,451
169,"Core price inflation was projected to rise a little over the forecast horizon, in part as a result of higher import prices",2000,1,164
913,"The hurricanes were also expected to depress payroll employment in September, with a reversal over the next few months.",2000,2,863
669,"Rapid responses by businesses to changes in free-market prices have muted much of the tendency for unsold goods to back up, or unmet needs to produce shortages.",2005,2,648
754,Several members noted the benefits of accumulating further information that could help clarify the contours of the outlook for economic activity and inflation as well as the need for further policy action.,2018,2,714
756,"Several mentioned that the revisions to the NIPA pointed to a modest downward adjustment in projected growth of actual and potential GDP,",2010,0,716
976,"The staff continued to project that the accommodative stance of monetary policy, together with a further attenuation of financial stress, the waning of adverse effects of earlier declines in wealth, and improving household and business confidence, would support a moderate recovery in economic activity and a gradual decline in the unemployment rate over the next two years.",1998,0,921
101,"At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: ""The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output.",2009,1,98
149,But change is hard and not everyone is willing or able to pay the price.,2021,2,147
949,"The producer price index for core intermediate materials dropped for a fifth month in February, reflecting, in part, weaker global demand and steep declines in the prices of a wide variety of energy-intensive goods, such as chemicals and plastics.",2012,0,897
915,The information reviewed at this meeting indicated that economic activity had turned up in the final quarter of last year and strengthened further since then.,2008,1,865
221,"So, I think you raise a very important point because, although there is a great deal of market focus on the timing of liftoff, what to matter in thinking about the stance of policy is what the entire path of interest rates will look like.",2019,2,216
1001,"Williamson cited Hayek's 1945 paper, along with Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations from the eighteenth century, as forming the core of a ""venerated tradition in economics"" of studying the notion of ""spontaneous order"" arising from a freely operating market system.9 How does Hayek's case for the price system fit in alongside the other work that Williamson mentioned?",2017,2,972
872,"The U. S. trade deficit in goods and services widened substantially in January and February from its fourth-quarter average, with exports falling sharply and imports rising strongly.",2010,1,823
149,"Inflation is also being held down, reflecting weaker demand as well as significantly lower energy prices.",2012,0,144
800,"however, apart from the energy and health care sectors, price inflation had remained relatively subdued, evidently reflecting the combination of diminished growth in overall demand and strong competitive pressures in most markets.",2017,0,756
933,"The members viewed the outlook for core price inflation as still quite benign, largely reflecting the ample availability of labor and other producer resources to accommodate rising economic activity and the favorable prospects for further robust growth in productivity.",2012,2,882
260,"First, we must be mindful that an unexpected slowdown might occur in the growth of productivity.",1999,1,255
239,"Housing demand remained strong, but business fixed investment was still in the doldrums and consumer spending had flagged in late summer before apparently picking up somewhat in the autumn.",1996,2,230
268,"Following the deepest plunge since the Great Depression, employment and activity rebounded faster and more sharply than anticipated.",2000,1,263
546,"May 21, 2020 U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the New York Association for Business Economics, New York, New York (via webcast) Share Accessible Keys for Video [Space Bar] toggles play/pause; [Right/Left Arrows] seeks the video forwards and back (5 sec ); [Up/Down Arrows] increase/decrease volume; [M] toggles mute on/off; [F] toggles fullscreen on/off (Except IE 11); The [Tab] key may be used in combination with the [Enter/Return] key to navigate and activate control buttons, such as caption on/off.",2017,2,528
880,"The behavior of the monetary aggregates will continue to be evaluated in the light of progress toward price level stability, movements in their velocities, and developments in the economy and financial markets.",2020,2,831
1009,"the new statement maintains our definition that the longer-run goal for inflation is 2 percent, it elevates the importance—and the challenge—of keeping inflation expectations well anchored at 2 percent in a world in which an effective-lower-bound constraint is, in downturns, binding on the federal funds rate.",2000,2,978
851,"There is, in fact, an unusual discrepancy between the unemployment and capacity utilization rates, compared to previous expansions",2005,2,825
289,We have long said that the size of the balance sheet will be considered normalized when the balance sheet is once again at the smallest level consistent with conducting monetary policy efficiently and effectively.,2020,2,282
469,"Labor demand remained strong, and the labor market continued to be very tight.",2005,0,448
208,"So the FOMC will always, in some sense, trump the projections of forward interest rates, but clearly, because the participants and the people around the table are the same, the projections should give significant information about where the FOMC is likely to go.",2013,2,203
260,"However, it was noted that the Committee had in place tools that would enable it to remove policy accommodation quickly if necessary to avoid an undesirable increase in inflation.",2006,1,251
1073,U. S. real GDP was forecast to plummet and the unemployment rate to soar in the second quarter of this year.,2015,0,1013
723,Real GDP growth was expected to step down in 2022 and 2023,2008,0,686
121,"Back then, the unemployment rate was 8.1percent and nonfarm payrolls were reported to have increased at a monthly rate of 97,000 over the prior six months; today, those figures are 7.6 percent and 194,000, respectively.",2007,2,120
0,"""The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output.",2011,2,0
229,Homebuilding was forecast to decline somewhat but to stabilize at a relatively high level in the context of continued income growth and the generally favorable cash-flow affordability of home ownership.,2001,2,220
18,"And if we do that, inflation expectations will be right at 2 percent, and that’ll help us achieve 2 percent inflation over time and avoid the situation where the central bank loses its ability to support the economy.",2013,2,18
772,"Share prices of financial firms fell especially sharply, reportedly a reflection, in part, of concerns about exposures to subprime mortgages and about the effect of a potential slowdown in merger activity on operating profits.",2003,2,730
37,"After falling steeply before the August FOMC meeting, emerging market equity prices were little changed, on net, over the period.",2015,2,37
989,"When the government runs deficits, it siphons off private savings (reducing national saving), leaving less available for capital investment.",1999,0,960
65,"Analysis suggests it could take many years with a formal AIT rule to return the price level to target following a lower-bound episode, and a mechanical AIT rule is likely to become increasingly difficult to explain and implement as conditions change over time.15 In contrast, FAIT is better suited for the highly uncertain and dynamic context in which policymaking takes place.",2004,0,64
468,Labor cost increases had not turned up and core inflation continued to edge lower.,2005,0,447
113,"At the moment, trend growth near full employment appears to be a reasonable prospect in the year ahead.",2022,1,112
1036,They also noted that even with this additional firming the risks were still weighted mainly in the direction of rising inflationary pressures.,2017,1,978
461,"In the simplest version of his model, Bill assumed that the central bank could choose to specify its monetary policy actions in terms of a particular level of a monetary aggregate or a particular value of a short-term nominal interest rate.",2021,2,447
527,Measures of inflation compensation were little changed on net.,2006,2,498
27,A second set of circumstances in which deflation or very low inflation may pose significant problems is potentially more relevant to the current U.S. economy.,2005,0,26
710,Such a jump could raise core inflation temporarily if it is passed through to other prices or if it contributes to increasing inflation expectations.,2004,1,689
824,The shifting balance of domestic demand and potential supply in each country means that policies affecting domestic demand will need to be re-calibrated to preserve price stability and keep economies operating at high levels of reserve utilization.,2017,1,801
152,"But even this relation--between the unemployment rate and the concept of economic slack--is not necessarily constant, and thus a given unemployment rate may not indicate the same level of slack at two separate times.",2000,2,150
486,"Indeed, such hearings used to be a regular feature in the weeks leading up to semiannual monetary policy hearings.",2005,2,470
442,the recent increase in crude oil and gasoline prices would push up inflation temporarily.,2004,1,424
686,"Participants marked up their inflation projections, as they assessed that supply constraints in product and labor markets were larger and likely to be longer lasting than previously anticipated.",2011,1,651
743,"Residential MBS yields and residential mortgage interest rates declined, on net, over the intermeeting period to historically low levels, but their spreads to yields on long-term Treasury securities increased.",2012,2,703
863,The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output.,2004,2,814
851,"The Committee reiterated, however, that purchases were not on a preset course, and that its decisions about the pace of purchases would remain contingent on its outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.",2009,2,802
397,"In their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, Committee members generally agreed that their overall assessments of the economic outlook were little changed since their previous meeting.",2021,2,381
844,The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.,2001,0,795
314,"You can get to 20, if you wanted to, easily, but labor force participation, the unemployment rate, different age groups of—you know, prime-age labor force participation, in particular, gets a lot of focus, the JOLTS data get a lot of focus.",2019,2,307
288,"We have continued to provide guidance, the same guidance that we have for some time, that says the Committee “anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.” I know that’s a mouthful, but it says, in effect, that the Committee believes that the economic conditions that have made recovery difficult, we’re getting beyond them.",2020,0,281
22,"A number of business contacts indicated that they were passing on at least a portion of these higher costs to their customers or that they planned to try to do so later this year; however, contacts were uncertain about the extent to which they could raise prices, given current market conditions and the cautious attitudes toward spending still held by households and businesses.",2014,1,22
212,"For the present, however, inflation remained subdued, and it was likely to remain relatively low for some time in light of the weakness in commodity and other import prices and the tendency for low current inflation to hold down expected price increases.",2007,0,203
392,"In May, there was a notable rebound in employment and decline in unemployment, and these developments are certainly welcome.",2020,1,380
1111,"With regard to the consensus in favor of moving from an assessment of risks weighted toward rising inflation to one that was weighted toward economic weakness, with no intermediate issuance of a balanced risks assessment, some members observed that such a change was likely to be viewed as a relatively rapid shift by some observers.",2015,0,1050
377,"If the public expects that inflation will remain low and stable over time, then, absent major shocks, it likely will.",2006,2,367
690,"Since June, however, inflation fears have receded, and some financial-market participants have become less optimistic about the economy's near-term growth prospects.",2020,0,669
1095,"While the absence of increasing price inflation was a welcome development, members were concerned that the break with historical patterns might not persist.",2006,1,1035
162,"Consumer spending was projected to increase at a rate generally in line with the anticipated rise in disposable income; the favorable effects on household wealth of the advance that had occurred in stock prices and the ample availability of credit for most borrowers were expected to balance the damping effects of continuing consumer concerns about the adequacy of their savings, the security of their jobs, and the extent of their debt burdens.",2014,2,158
230,"Equity prices have recently increased considerably, pushing the forward price-earnings ratio further above its historical median (slide).",1997,0,226
738,participants generally expected no more than moderate growth in consumer spending over the near term.,2007,2,698
1067,"Total nonfarm payroll employment rose solidly in July and August, with strong gains in private-sector jobs and declines in government employment.",2013,2,1007
25,"A second economic rationale that is often advanced for the development of cities and that seems applicable to the Sioux Falls experience is that of labor market pooling--the ability of an industry to take advantage of a labor force possessing a specific set of skills, thereby raising productivity compared with competing areas with a more dispersed set of skills.",2004,0,24
302,"In addition, some policymakers observed that the timing and magnitude of future policy adjustments would ultimately be determined by the Committee's interpretation of the incoming data on the economy and prices rather than by its current expectation of those developments.",2015,2,288
101,"As of this month, the maximum monthly reduction in the balance sheet will be nearly double the level of the previous cycle.10 Together, the increase in the policy rate and the reduction in the balance sheet should help bring demand into alignment with supply.",2022,1,100
823,"The shift in the stance of monetary policy that we undertook in 2019 was, I believe, well timed and has been providing support to the economy and helping to keep the U.S. outlook on track.",2017,2,800
204,"Conversely, perhaps the transitory factors boosting productivity will recede more sharply than most observers anticipate, and the output gap will close more rapidly.",2020,2,202
751,The September FOMC meeting was the first since the Committee approved in August our new Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy and adopted a new policy framework.3 The changes we made in our September FOMC statement bring our policy guidance in line with this new framework.,2006,2,729
567,"More specifically, we observed financial-market developments over the period beginning fifteen minutes before and ending forty-five minutes after each policy decision became known to the public.4 The advantage of restricting the analysis to a short period spanning the Committee's decision is that the changes in yields or asset prices occurring within that narrow window are more likely to reflect the impact of the decision, as opposed to the arrival of other information about the economy.",2002,2,549
943,Treasury yields rose sharply on its release as market participants traced out the report's presumed implications for monetary policy.,1997,1,914
543,Members expected to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until those outcomes were achieved.,2009,0,514
241,Experienced loan officers who are well acquainted with their markets can channel funds into the loans that are most likely to create wealth and growth in the local economy.,1996,2,237
157,year-over-year consumer inflation remained at a very low level.,2012,0,154
947,"The pickup in demand had yet to materially narrow currently wide margins of idle labor and other resources, and these margins along with the uncertainties that still surrounded current forecasts of robust economic growth suggested that an accommodative monetary policy might remain desirable for a considerable period of time.",2012,0,895
384,Implications for Monetary Policy The period from 1950 through the early 1980s provides two important lessons for managing the risks and uncertainties we face today.,2022,2,373
613,"Of course, many other factors also influence inflation, and some of these provide other possible explanations for the recent changes in inflation dynamics.",2002,2,593
874,This automatically pushes up domestic interest rates to support the currency.,2021,1,847
471,"Labor markets appeared to be stabilizing as private nonfarm payrolls grew in September for the first time since January, and employment losses in July and August turned out to be smaller than data initially had indicated.",2022,2,450
544,"Martin Baily and Robert Lawrence (2004) present a much more thorough analysis of this issue and come to a similar conclusion.4 To investigate further the relationship between restructuring and labor productivity, we compared the performance of industry employment to the performance of industry productivity for the period from 2000 to 2002 (chart 5).",1999,2,526
159,"Consumer prices jumped in October, as hurricane damage contributed to higher prices for food and energy.",2014,1,155
359,"In the Committee's discussion of monetary policy for the intermeeting period, nearly all members favored keeping the target federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent at this meeting.",1997,2,344
216,"Further out, TIPS-based inflation compensation 5 to 10 years ahead edged down slightly on net.",2016,0,207
307,"From a policy perspective, a difficulty with all these measures is that they reflect expectations of headline inflation rather than the core inflation measures usually emphasized in the monetary policy context.",2021,2,299
258,"First, there is a tug of war between the continued exceptional momentum in private domestic demand and the external drag from the Asian crisis.",1999,2,253
259,"First, tightening will in all likelihood occur in the context of a more firmly established economic recovery in the United States so that any adverse effects on EME financial conditions should be buffered by the beneficial effects of higher external demand.",1999,1,254
641,"Over the long run, real labor compensation tends to track labor productivity.",1997,2,620
193,"Concepts associated with deflation such as liquidity traps and the zero bound on nominal interest rates had, for practical purposes, disappeared from economic thought.",2008,1,191
697,Some Reasons for the Decline in Far-Forward Rates Why have the far-forward rates implied by the term structure of interest rates declined in recent years?,2022,2,676
39,"Against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the Committee believes that the risks continue to be weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future.",2015,0,39
343,"In light of the economic outlook, almost all members agreed to indicate that the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014, longer than had been indicated in recent FOMC statements.",2004,0,328
750,The Role of Government Policy You will have noted that I have not mentioned the role of government policy in creating a higher rate of trend productivity growth.,2006,2,728
998,"While the current episode has not yet concluded, it appears that, responding vigorously in a relatively flexible economy to the aftermath of bubbles, as traumatic as that may be, is less inhibiting to long-term growth than chronic high-inflation monetary policy.",2017,1,969
800,"The key to explaining why price stability promotes stability in both output and employment is the realization that, when inflation itself is well-controlled, then the public's expectations of inflation will also be low and stable.",2004,1,777
781,"Some contacts indicated that while input costs were higher, it appeared that the pass-through of these higher costs to consumer prices was limited.",2018,2,738
696,"So, what are the implications for monetary policy?",2022,2,675
979,PCE price inflation was forecast to still be well above 2 percent at the end of this year.,1998,0,924
1127,"Without a reduction of aggregate demand growth, inflation would rise.",2013,1,1065
1106,"With home prices depressed, housing construction was quite subdued and seen as likely to remain so, while investment in nonresidential structures remained low.",1999,0,1045
765,"Several participants observed that the trimmed mean measure of PCE price inflation constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas had stayed near 2 percent recently, underscoring the view that the recent low readings on inflation will prove transitory.",2017,2,724
280,"For example, for 2003 as a whole, growth in both the monetary base and M2 should be about equal to growth in nominal GDP.",2004,0,274
447,"In the 1988-90 period, the behavior of crude oil prices, unemployment, and the exchange rate were not especially surprising or anomalous.",2022,2,434
151,"Inflation, in fact, is under control, and starting to come down.",2018,2,146
512,"It is my pleasure to meet virtually with you today.1 I look forward to our conversation, but first, please allow me to offer a few remarks on the economic outlook, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and our new monetary policy framework.",1999,2,495
650,"One participant, however, objected that purchases of MBS, when compared to purchases of longer-term Treasury securities, would likely result in higher interest rates for many borrowers in other sectors.",2019,1,616
963,We can best promote a progressive credit climate by maintaining an environment of low inflation.,2003,1,934
665,"Participants also observed that crude oil prices fell over the intermeeting period and other commodity prices also moderated, developments that were likely to damp headline inflation at the consumer level going forward.",2003,0,631
311,"When we reach maximum employment, when we reach a state where labor market conditions are at maximum employment in the Committee’s judgment, it’s very possible that the inflation test will already be met.",2017,0,304
887,The deceleration seemed to reflect primarily an unwinding of heightened demand for the relative safety and liquidity of money market mutual funds that had boosted M2 in prior months.,2018,0,838
25,"A number of participants noted that continued high unemployment, particularly with large numbers of workers suffering very long spells of unemployment, would lead to an erosion of workers' skills that would have adverse consequences for those workers and for the economy's potential level of output in the longer term.",2003,0,25
511,"Market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up but remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.",2020,2,488
203,"First, the projected rates of productivity gains and potential output growth over the medium term were trimmed.",2014,0,194
75,"But again, in terms of terminology, I guess I would reject that term for the Federal Reserve because we are going to be evenhanded in treating the price stability and maximum employment parts of our mandate on a level footing.",2011,2,74
264,"However, other participants observed that measures of longer-term inflation compensation derived from financial instruments had remained stable of late, and that survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations also had not changed appreciably, on net, in recent months.",2000,2,255
939,"The nominal deficit on U. S. trade in goods and services widened substantially in July, reflecting both a decline in exports and a rise in imports.",2016,1,887
102,"As stock prices soared in the 1990s, the share of equity holdings in household portfolios surpassed the share of owner-occupied housing.",2022,2,101
1000,"White-collar, high-skilled employment increased at a much faster rate than employment in the other categories in nearly all cases in the G-7 countries over 1979-95.",2017,2,971
906,"The first round of the three-month U. S. dollar auctions that major foreign central banks announced on September 15 was held in October; demand was quite limited, and only the European Central Bank (ECB) drew on its swap line with the Federal Reserve.",2007,1,856
718,how long before it becomes a factor driving inflation?,2005,2,697
15,A higher rate of technical change that raises the productivity and hence the profitability of capital should elevate the value of equities.,1998,1,15
492,"Independence and the Federal Reserve System The Federal Reserve, created in 1913, was established as an independent central bank--although, at the time, it was given no clear concept of its role in the conduct of monetary policy.",2021,2,476
347,"However, the fact that most other industrial countries did not experience the same increase in productivity growth as the United States during that period, even as they became more open to trade, suggests that the relationship between productivity and trade may be complex.",2006,2,338
130,"Businesses added a bit to their inventory positions after an extended period of sizable declines, but final sales changed little: business capital spending weakened somewhat further while growth in consumer spending, residential housing expenditures, and government outlays slowed.",2000,2,127
359,"I presented these estimates in my testimony to emphasize the continuing importance the profession attaches to NAIRU, the central tendency of current NAIRU estimates, and the absence of significant upward adjustments to estimates of trend growth.",2022,0,350
1104,"With energy prices having turned down, overall consumer price inflation had eased slightly in recent months,",2020,2,1044
770,Several participants stated that such risks should not inhibit the Committee from pursuing its mandated objectives for inflation and employment.,2014,2,728
781,"The events of the last two years come on top of a huge expansion of global trade, competition and productive capacity--all of which have given American businesses less control over prices in the face of rising costs and benefited American consumers through low prices.",2013,2,758
790,Some participants judged that a less accommodative future stance of policy would likely be warranted and that the Committee should convey a strong commitment to address elevated inflation pressures.,2006,1,747
641,"On the upside, recent fiscal policy changes could lead to a greater expansion in economic activity over the next few years than the staff projected.",1998,1,608
69,"As you said, falling oil prices pull down inflation.",2017,0,68
227,"Holiday shopping reportedly was relatively solid, and, reflecting the improvement in the housing market, demand for home furnishings and construction materials was up.",2019,1,218
794,Some participants noted that additional asset purchases could be used to provide more accommodation by lowering longer-term interest rates.,2009,0,751
888,The demand for commercial paper declined as prime money market mutual funds experienced large net outflows after the net asset value of one such fund fell below $1 per share.,2018,2,839
160,But monetary policy has little ability to affect inflation this year.,1998,2,158
953,"Unfortunately, I suspect that this call would often come so late in the day that, given the lags in the monetary transmission mechanism and uncertainty about the duration of bubbles, raising interest rates might actually risk exacerbating instability.",2005,0,924
28,"And our plan as we do that is, as those purchases get to that level, we believe we can gradually reduce them, and we believe we can also gradually reduce repo as—as we reach an ample level, as we’re satisfying demand now more from underlying reserves from bill purchases rather than from repo.",2011,0,28
748,Risks to the inflation projection also were seen as balanced.,2010,2,708
452,"In the absence of such offsetting operations, a decrease in currency demand would raise the amount of reserves and hence lower the federal funds rate.",2000,0,439
889,The disruptions to global economic activity had significantly affected financial conditions and impaired the flow of credit to U. S. households and businesses.,2011,0,840
65,"Although the initial offerings of these securities were well received, investor demand at the most recent sales was not as strong, a development consistent with the declines in the prices of non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities over the intermeeting period.",2018,1,65
306,"From a policy perspective, a difficulty with all these measures is that they reflect expectations of headline inflation rather than the core inflation measures usually emphasized in the monetary policy context.",2021,2,298
873,"This approach adds to what we have learned from earlier papers that have examined the performance of unconventional policy tools with respect to individual components of financial conditions—most notably, long-term sovereign yields, but also mortgage rates, equities, exchange rates, and corporate debt spreads.3 Empirically assessing the question in the report is not only important, but also challenging, as the report readily acknowledges.",2021,2,846
181,"One of the things we’ve learned from our financial crisis and from a series of financial crises in history and around the globe is that, very commonly, when the economy takes a hit and falls into a recession, that productivity doesn’t pick up to pre-recession levels and that there looks like there is a permanent hit to the path of potential output for the economy, which is called “hysteresis.” And I raised the question as to whether or not this might operate in the opposite direction as well.",2021,2,176
254,"However, in light of the projected persistence of slack in labor and product markets and the anticipated stability in long-term inflation expectations, the increase in inflation was expected to be mostly transitory if oil and other commodity prices did not rise significantly further.",2014,2,245
261,"However, most participants judged that inflation would stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term.",2006,2,252
18,A key purpose of our review has been to take stock of the lessons learned over this period and identify any further changes in our monetary policy framework that could enhance our ability to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability objectives in the years ahead.9 Our evolving understanding of four key economic developments motivated our review.,1998,2,17
276,"For example, as table 1 shows, the collective current account surplus of the Middle East and Africa rose more than $40 billion between 1996 and 2003; it continued to swell in 2004 as oil prices increased yet further.",2004,1,271
299,"In Latin America, indicators suggested that economic activity in Mexico and Brazil expanded further in the first quarter.",2015,2,285
937,"however, for the two months combined, the deficit was considerably wider than its average rate for the second quarter.",2016,2,886
371,"In the emerging market economies (EMEs), a pickup in growth in China in the second quarter, supported by policy stimulus, appeared to be more than offset by slower growth in Latin America.",2010,2,356
917,"The labor force participation rate, along with the employment-to-population ratio, increased, on net, in recent months.",2008,1,867
166,But the advent of the war has led to a significant hit to real incomes from large price increases in energy and other commodities in some of the most severely affected economies.,1997,1,164
945,"Turning now to monetary policy, at both its July and September meetings, the FOMC voted to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points.3 With these decisions, the current target range for the federal funds rate is 1.75 to 2 percent, which compares with the range of 2.25 to 2.5 percent that prevailed between December 2018 and July 2019.",1997,0,916
186,"Central banks have adopted price stability as a key long-term objective, and they have become more transparent and systematic in their operations.",1997,1,184
232,"That said, many of my colleagues and I would see a portion of the decline in the unemployment rate as perhaps not representing a diminution of slack in the labor market.",2016,1,227
640,"Over the 1994-2002 period, seven prominent inflation-targeting industrial countries had a mean inflation rate of consumer prices of 2.1 percent per year with a standard deviation of 1.7 percent.",1997,2,619
5,"A couple of participants referred to information from business contacts suggesting that inflation was unlikely to decline further, and a few expressed concerns that maintaining a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy for an extended period could erode the stability of inflation expectations over time and hence posed upside risks to the inflation outlook.",2019,1,5
1031,These rates of growth were associated with ranges for the civilian rate of unemployment of 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2004 and 5 to 5-1/2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2005.,2007,2,973
389,there are some indications that headwinds to global growth may be beginning to abate.,2022,2,377
159,"It was to do with, you know, strong monetary policy and fiscal stimulus into an economy that was recovering rapidly, and in which there were these supply-side barriers which effectively led to, you know, in certain parts of the economy, what you might call a vertical supply curve.",2021,1,154
395,"In their discussion of monetary policy for the intermeeting period, Committee members agreed that keeping the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent would be appropriate.",2021,0,379
980,"The staff expected the 12-month change in PCE prices to gradually move down in coming months, reflecting, importantly, the fading of base effects along with smaller expected monthly price increases,",1998,2,924
411,"In these circumstances, the Committee believed that policy accommodation could be removed at a pace that would likely be measured but noted that it would respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability.",2010,1,395
674,"Participants discussed their assessments of risks to financial stability, particularly in light of the Committee's highly accommodative stance of monetary policy.",1998,0,639
899,"This term has been interpreted by many observers to mean that the Committee's reaction function aimed to be symmetric on either side of the 2 percent inflation goal, and that the FOMC set policy with the (ex ante) aim that the 2 percent goal should represent an inflation ceiling in economic expansions following economic downturns in which inflation falls below target.",1999,1,872
413,"those risks appeared to be quite limited for the nearer term, excessive monetary stimulus had to be avoided to avert rising inflation expectations and added inflation pressures over time.",2010,1,397
838,"The unemployment rate is near a 50-year low, and inflation is running close to our 2 percent objective.",1999,2,814
995,"While great uncertainty regarding the path of fiscal policy and its economic effects will remain for some time, with the economy getting closer to full employment, the prospect of a material increase in fiscal stimulus over a sustained period could reasonably be expected to shift somewhat greater probability toward stronger inflation outcomes.",2019,1,966
836,"The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.",2016,2,787
852,"There is, in my view, a reasonable prospect that each of these two effects will reverse their contributions to inflation over the next couple of years and that balance between them will be important in determining the pattern of core and overall inflation rates.",2005,2,826
9,"A few members expressed interest in using language specifying a period of time during which the federal funds rate was expected to remain exceptionally low, rather than a calendar date, arguing that such language might be better to indicate a constant stance of monetary policy over time.",2019,0,9
11,"A concern that one might have about price-level targeting, as opposed to more conventional inflation targeting, is that it requires a short-term inflation rate that is higher than the long-term inflation objective.",1997,2,11
123,"Broad equity price indexes were higher over the intermeeting period, amid heightened volatility.",1999,2,120
453,"In the current decade, however, the standard deviation of inflation has been relatively stable in Brazil, at around 5 percent, and it has been declining in Mexico, where it is now around 2 percent.",2000,2,440
785,Some members expressed concern about the longer-run prospects for large federal deficits and their implications for the future performance of the economy.,2013,0,742
793,"The guidance on asset purchases, introduced in December, commits us to increasing our holdings of securities at least at the current pace until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum-employment and price-stability goals.",1997,0,770
626,"One might even argue that if a central bank ever converged on a single monetary rule, there would be no need for a monetary policy committee.",2020,2,606
67,"As the factors restraining economic growth are projected to fade further over time, the median rate rises to 3 percent by the end of 2018, close to its longer-run normal level.",2017,1,66
907,"Three Questions The first question is, ""Can the Federal Reserve best meet its statutory objectives with its existing monetary policy strategy, or should it consider strategies that aim to reverse past misses of the inflation objective?""",2007,2,880
692,"Participants thought that consumer expenditures likely would expand at a moderate pace in coming quarters, supported by solid gains in employment and real income.",1997,1,657
98,"By contrast, raising rates too slowly would raise the risk that monetary policy would need to tighten abruptly down the road, which could jeopardize the economic expansion.",2022,1,94
577,"Moreover, the recent relatively low monthly readings on core inflation and modest wage pressures, at least by some measures, suggested that some slack remained in resource utilization.",2002,0,547
62,An important element in interpreting financial market prices is the identification of the risk premiums they contain.,2004,2,61
720,That central bank independence promotes lower inflation in developed countries is well-established by the economic literature.,2002,2,698
538,Members also agreed that there was only a remote possibility that the process of disinflation would cumulate to the point of a decline for an extended period in the general price level.,1998,2,509
734,The Committee took these actions to provide a somewhat more accommodative policy in response to muted inflation pressures and the risks to the outlook I mentioned earlier.,2005,0,712
195,"Conclusion The United States productivity growth spurt, realized to a much lesser extent around the world, can be attributed largely to a combination of an investment boom and a technological revolution.",2008,0,193
312,"When, when you get to—in, in the forecast, all of that, you know, supply and demand sides of the economy adapt.",2019,2,305
50,"And you know, we haven’t yet—we just touched 2 percent core inflation, to pick one measure—just touched it for a few months, and then we’ve fallen back.",2022,0,49
81,"But in terms of just targeting growth, you know, I think—I actually think our dual mandate works very well, which is maximum employment and stable prices.",2018,2,78
918,"To be clear, when I say ""risk premium"" I mean the additional compensation required by investors for holding a risky security--that is, one with uncertain returns--above the compensation that would be demanded by risk-neutral investors who care only about expected returns.",2022,2,890
998,The staff's outlook for inflation was broadly unchanged.,2005,2,941
225,He was concerned that the flattening yield curve was partly due to falling longer-term inflation expectations or a lower neutral real rate of interest.,2019,0,216
310,"In any event, it was clear that forecasts in recent years typically had overstated the rise in inflation, and a great deal of uncertainty surrounded the extent to which productivity gains and other factors, some unspecified, might continue to hold down inflation in a period of robust economic growth and relatively tight labor markets.",2011,2,295
4,"A couple of participants pointed to the decline in credit spreads to relatively low levels by historical standards; one of these participants noted the risk of either a sharp rise in spreads, which could have negative repercussions for aggregate demand, or a continuation of the decline in spreads, which could undermine financial stability over time.",2011,0,4
433,"In particular, the Committee noted that it would respond as necessary to maintain price stability.",2021,1,420
670,"Rather than rely on Fed watchers employed by primary dealers to read the tea leaves of our daily interventions, we inform everyone, openly, and take responsibility for the level of short-term interest rates.",2005,2,649
443,"In such an environment, a central bank mandated to pursue price stability can be flexible according to the circumstances, while one with a numerical target may need to obtain formal modification of its objectives.",2021,2,430
1049,"This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. """,2015,2,989
49,And what we—it looks like we’re seeing a slowdown in the rate of growth.,2022,0,48
603,"Nonetheless, all but one of the members believed that in light of the uncertainties about the economic outlook, an immediate policy tightening was not needed in the absence of firmer indications that inflationary pressures might be emerging.",2014,1,572
2,A couple of participants indicated that they would not favor adopting a restrictive policy stance in the absence of clear signs of an overheating economy and rising inflation.,2011,2,2
556,"Monetary Policy Spillovers Flow in Both Directions There is a vast literature that documents the existence of international spillovers from U.S. monetary policy, especially to emerging markets (EMs).",2021,2,538
473,"Later in the period, AFE yields partially rebounded and foreign equity prices fully recovered on some easing of U. S. ­–China trade tensions, as well as perceptions of reduced political uncertainty in the United Kingdom and Italy.",2022,2,452
973,The staff also reduced slightly its forecast of growth next year,2000,0,918
842,"The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will strengthen.",2013,0,793
449,"Inflation readings available since the April meeting continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and continued decreases in prices of non-energy imports.",2016,0,428
455,"the very shortest maturities, and with the additional tightening and deceleration in inflation that is expected over coming quarters, the entire real curve will soon move into positive territory.",2000,1,442
701,Some may see a monetary policy that actively addresses episodes of financial instability along the lines that I have just described as promoting excessive risk-taking and thus increasing the probability of future crises.,2017,1,680
315,"You know, it says that we will seek to—seek inflation that runs moderately above 2 percent for some time.",2019,0,308
442,"In some models, these factors can be explicitly tied to observable economic variables, such as inflation; in other models, the factors represent statistical summaries of the data and have no explicit economic interpretations.",2021,2,429
689,"Similarly, I don't think we yet fully understand the role of Year 2000 preparations in either the late 1990s investment boom or the acceleration in productivity.",2020,2,668
719,"That apparently has not made its way into prices yet,",2005,2,697
65,"As always, our actions are guided by our congressional mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability.",2018,1,64
93,"But, I would say, overall, we’re trying to sustain the expansion and keep, you know, close to our statutory goals, which are maximum employment and stable prices.",2014,1,89
61,"Although some decline in inflation could not be ruled out, persistence of the current degree of tightness in labor markets, consistent with the economy growing at a pace near its potential, could at some point begin to put more pressure on costs and prices, and growth somewhat above potential, which some members saw as a distinct possibility, would be even more likely to produce that result.",2015,1,61
262,"There should be able to be an adjustment that would have lower than—perhaps lower-than-expected increases in unemployment—lower than would be expected in the ordinary course of events because the level—the ratio of, of vacancies to unemployed is just out of keeping with historical experience.",2015,2,257
396,"In a virtuous circle, stable inflation expectations help the central bank to keep inflation low even as it retains substantial freedom to respond to disturbances to the broader economy.",2021,1,384
287,"For example, the Stock-Watson indicator and other indicators based on interest rates and spreads signaled the 1990-91 recession very weakly and rather late.",1997,2,281
709,"Subsequent to monetary union, harmonized consumer prices can be used as the best available measure of inflation in the Euro area.",2004,2,688
656,Overall consumer prices increased in July and August at about the second-quarter rate.,2012,1,622
186,"Economic data releases were mixed, on balance, over the intermeeting period, but market participants were especially attentive to incoming information on the labor market--most notably, the private payroll figures in the employment report for May, which were considerably weaker than investors expected.",2016,0,179
477,Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.,2019,2,456
365,I will then discuss the prospects for adjusting monetary policy in the manner needed to sustain a strong job market,2001,1,356
607,"Nonetheless, on balance, most members currently considered the upside risks to inflation to be a bit less pressing than those on the downside for the next few quarters.",2019,0,576
631,One prominent example is with semiconductor producers and their need to dramatically alter the mix of production to meet demands of the high-tech and automotive industries.,2001,2,610
358,"I look forward, as always, to my conversation with Tim, but first, please allow me to offer a few remarks on the economic outlook, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and our new monetary policy framework.",2022,2,349
678,"Participants expected that, with further gradual increases in the federal funds rate, economic activity would expand at a solid rate during the remainder of this year and a moderate pace in the medium term, and that labor market conditions would remain strong.",2008,1,643
651,"Others indicated that because part of the recent decline in the jobless rate was associated with a reduction in labor force participation, the drop in the unemployment rate likely overstated the overall improvement in the labor market.",2019,0,617
630,One prominent example is the work in behavioral finance on how alternative assumptions regarding rationality can affect predictions for asset prices and saving behavior,2001,2,609
66,"As far as—as the policy rate, what we’ve said is that we will maintain the rate at this level until we’re confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals.",2017,2,65
500,"Inflation-targeting regimes make sense only if the central bank has independent control of the instruments of monetary policy, as holding the central bank responsible for meeting its inflation target is hardly possible otherwise.",1998,2,484
966,"The run-up in mortgage rates since the latter part of June was expected to curb housing demand to a limited extent in coming months,",1997,2,912
600,"Nevertheless, most participants agreed that, although the level of inventories of unsold homes that homebuilders desired was uncertain, the correction of the housing sector was likely to continue to weigh heavily on economic activity through most of this year--somewhat longer than previously expected.",2006,2,569
715,Survey measures give us an idea of what the average household expects inflation to be in the coming years.,2005,2,694
853,"The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability. """,2009,1,804
572,"Moreover, substantial gains in productivity were muting the effects of rising labor compensation on unit costs, and vigorous competition in numerous markets was continuing to make it very difficult or impossible for business firms to raise their prices to cover rising costs or enhance profit margins.",2011,1,542
121,"Broad equity price indexes decreased slightly, on net, as substantial early gains arising from investors' improved perceptions about the inflation outlook and better-than-feared second-quarter earnings were more than offset by later losses arising from expectations that the Committee would follow a more restrictive policy than previously expected.",2011,1,118
81,"Another reason for the reliance on judgment in the forecasting process is the practical requirement that the forecast for inflation be consistent with the staff's overall view of the economy, including the forecasts for key economic variables such as wages, interest rates, and consumption spending.",2022,2,80
462,"Job gains had been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate had remained low.",2005,1,441
546,Members noted that they expected to maintain this target range until they were confident that the economy had weathered recent events and was on track to achieve the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.,1997,2,517
259,"The unemployment rate declined in May and , 2020 June but, at 11.1 percent, remains far above its level before the outbreak and greater than the Chair Powell’s Press Conference FINAL peak during the Global Financial Crisis.",2012,0,254
188,"Employment continued to expand unevenly,",2005,2,180
774,sustained outsized gains in productivity could further damp hiring.,2003,0,731
379,"In the residential real estate sector, home sales and construction had increased from very low levels, and house prices appeared to be stabilizing.",2009,2,364
139,"In fact, it’s already—it’s already understood, I think, that—that there’s more—even though we’re at 3½ percent unemployment, there’s actually more slack out there, in a sense.",2022,0,134
308,"What monetary policy affects, primarily, is the state of the business cycle, the amount of excess unemployment or the extent of recession in the economy.",2017,2,301
286,"However, with the contraction in housing activity expected to abate this year, the pace of economic growth was anticipated to edge back up to a level that was close to the staff's estimate of potential output growth by the end of 2007 and to remain in that same range throughout 2008.",2008,2,274
975,We take the level of the stock market into account when we consider the economic outlook and monetary policy.,2003,2,946
199,Factors pointing to potentially higher inflation included increased pressures on food prices stemming from disappointing harvests in some areas and relatively low grain supplies.,2014,1,190
416,"In contrast, under a price-level-targeting scheme, continuing deflation combined with an upward-sloping path for the price-level target causes the size of the price-level gap to increase over time.",2022,0,404
207,"For 1998, the Committee agreed on a tentative basis to set the same ranges as in 1997 for growth of the monetary aggregates and debt, measured from the fourth quarter of 1997 to the fourth quarter of 1998.",2002,2,198
73,An anticipated sharp slowdown in the pace of inventory accumulation also would damp domestic production as the growth of stocks was brought into balance with the expected more moderate trajectory of final sales.,2017,2,73
650,"Policy tightening started last year, as emerging markets including Mexico and Brazil increased rates substantially amid expectations of accelerating inflation.",2002,1,629
426,"Indeed, most anticipated that inflation will slow for a time to rates somewhat lower than those they judge consistent with the dual goals of price stability and maximum employment, initially reflecting the recent declines in the prices of energy and other commodities and later responding to several years of substantial economic slack.",2022,0,409
135,"In addition, the May 1, 2019 trimmed mean measures of inflation did not go down as much.",2022,1,130
538,"Maintaining low inflation rates reduces the levels of future uncertainties and, hence, increases the scope of investment opportunities.",2021,1,520
274,"For example, Kozicki and Tinsley (2001) show that it is far easier to make sense of the term structure of Treasury yields if one assumes that expectations about long-run inflation adjust in a reasonable adaptive manner.",2004,2,269
290,"We have not focused on whether we meet the liftoff test, because we don’t meet the liftoff test now because we’re not at maximum employment.",2020,0,283
909,"Through this channel, the decline in inflation volatility should be reflected in a smaller inflation risk premium in nominal bond yields, which is exactly what is estimated in the Kim, Walsh, and Wei (2019) yield curve model (figure 4, ""Term Premium Decomposition"").",2007,2,882
555,"More fundamentally, however, the members believed that current growth in aggregate demand, should it persist, would continue to exceed the expansion of potential output and, by putting added pressure on already tight labor markets, would at some point foster inflationary imbalances that would undermine the economic expansion.",2018,1,526
114,"At the same time, an acceleration in productivity also appears to have a direct disinflationary effect.",2022,0,113
687,Setting the horizon on the interest rate caps to reinforce forward guidance on the policy rate would augment the credibility of the yield curve caps and thereby diminish concerns about an open-ended balance sheet commitment.,2006,2,666
882,The civilian unemployment rate was 4.,2020,2,833
766,"Several participants raised concerns regarding the longer-run effects of the pandemic, including how it could lead to a restructuring in some sectors of the economy that could slow employment growth or could accelerate technological disruption that was likely limiting the pricing power of firms.",2014,0,725
14,A few participants commented that both survey- and market-based measures of short-term inflation expectations were at historically high levels.,1996,1,14
253,"First, longer-maturity obligations may be more attractive because of more stable inflation, better-anchored inflation expectations, and a reduction in economic volatility more generally.",2001,0,248
38,"After robust growth in the second quarter, M2 decelerated somewhat and M3 was about unchanged in July.",2015,1,38
504,also because such actions help to head off undesirable changes in inflation down the road.,2020,2,488
391,"In December 1996, before my time at the Board, John Campbell of Harvard and Robert Shiller of Yale made a presentation at the Fed, in which they used dividend-price ratios and related measures to argue that the stock market was overvalued.",2020,2,379
932,"To summarize these international data, one might say that something brought inflation down in the 1980s and 1990s,",2007,2,903
942,"Traditionally, these two measures of excess demand move together over the cycle.",1997,2,913
233,"Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit.",2001,0,224
914,"also term premiums to compensate for the risk associated with commitments to extend credit so far in the future, including the risk of future inflation.",2003,2,887
437,"Industrial production had slipped in recent months and private payroll employment had changed little,",2014,2,419
1125,"With today's action, the real federal funds rate--measured as the difference between the nominal funds rate and a moving average of core PCE inflation--would move slightly into positive territory.",2003,1,1063
609,"October 12, 2021 U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the 2021 Institute of International Finance Annual Membership Meeting: Sustainable Economic Growth and Financial Stability in a Diverging, Decarbonizing, Digitizing, Indebted World, Washington, D.C. (via webcast) Share It is my pleasure to meet virtually with you today at the 2021 Institute of International Finance Annual Membership Meeting.1 I regret that we are not meeting in person, but I look forward, as always, to a conversation with my good friend and one-time colleague Tim Adams.",2020,2,590
817,"The resulting uncertainty makes it difficult to predict the future path of activity, unemployment, and inflation.",2020,2,794
337,"However, given the difficulty in distinguishing between changes in asset prices dominated by fundamental forces and those driven by non-fundamental forces, policymakers should not target asset prices or try to guide them to the policymakers' estimate of fundamental value.",2005,2,328
796,The implication is that monetary policy is already well positioned to slow the expansion.,2004,1,773
220,"During much of the recovery, forecasters have been overly optimistic about growth",2017,1,216
438,Industrial production picked up in response to the advance in final demand and a slowdown in the runoff of excess inventory stocks.,2004,2,420
835,"The Committee again anticipated that it likely would be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remained well anchored.",2016,0,786
415,"In this regard, members referred to earlier unsustainable rates of investment by many high-tech firms that were now obliged to retrench despite still high rates of growth in the demand for their products and services.",2010,1,398
464,"In these models, each asset price contains a risk premium that represents the additional return demanded by risk-averse investors for bearing risk.",2020,2,450
223,"During the five years before the crisis, core goods made a small negative contribution to inflation.",2000,0,219
383,"In the view of a number of members, rapid growth of the monetary aggregates, though it had slowed very recently, was a further indication that financial conditions were not restraining economic activity.",1996,1,368
398,"In their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, members agreed that it would be appropriate to maintain the existing highly accommodative stance of monetary policy.",2021,0,382
534,Long-run price stability certainly is essential for achieving maximum employment.,2005,1,516
745,"The Federal Reserve takes into account the spillovers of higher interest rates, a stronger dollar, and weaker demand from foreign economies into the United States, as well as in the reverse direction.",2020,0,723
812,"Staff Review of the Financial Situation On balance, financial conditions in the United States remained supportive of growth in economic activity and employment: The expected path of the federal funds rate was slightly lower in the long run, yields on longer-term Treasury securities moved down modestly, equity prices rose, corporate bond spreads narrowed, and the foreign exchange value of the dollar was little changed.",2001,0,767
71,And the equity market itself has been the subject of analysis as we attempt to assess the implications for financial and economic stability of the extraordinary rise in equity prices--a rise based apparently on continuing upward revisions in estimates of our corporations' already robust long-term earning prospects.,2000,1,70
727,"Real residential investment appeared to have declined again in the fourth quarter, likely reflecting in part decreases in the affordability of housing arising from both the net increase in mortgage interest rates over the past year and ongoing, though somewhat slower, house price appreciation.",2008,1,689
649,"Petroleum prices have been under particular pressure, reflecting not only stronger demand but also risks that supplies could be constrained by terrorism or political disruption.",2002,1,628
69,And it may generally take longer still for a policy change to alter the course of inflation.,1998,2,68
472,"Indeed, CPI inflation does appear to have become more sensitive to import prices over time, both in the United States and in other OECD countries (Pain, Koske, and Sollie, 2006).3 Can domestic monetary policy still control domestic interest rates and so stabilize both inflation and output?",2019,2,457
23,"And it’s natural that if it can be employed that, just as monetary policy is doing a lot to try to June 15, 2016 stimulate growth, that fiscal policy should play a role.",2020,0,23
134,"Because there is considerable uncertainty about the persistence, breadth, and magnitude of climate-related shocks to the economy, it could be challenging to assess what adjustments to monetary policy are likely to be most effective at keeping the economy operating at potential with maximum employment and price stability.8 We need only look back to the oil price shocks of the 1970s and 1980s to see how difficult it was for monetary policymakers to assess accurately the likely persistence of the effects on inflation and output and the appropriate response.",2007,2,132
18,A few participants particularly stressed the high uncertainty associated with the expected future path of the unemployment rate and commented that the unemployment rate could rise by considerably more than in the staff forecast.,2020,0,18
12,"And I think, more broadly, monetary policy is also supporting household spending and home buying by keeping the labor market strong, keeping workers’ incomes rising, and keeping consumer confidence at high levels, where it currently is.",2019,0,12
470,"Labor market conditions had improved further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate; taken as a whole, labor market indicators suggested that the underutilization of labor resources was continuing to diminish.",2005,1,449
363,"In the United Kingdom, however, gilt yields declined and the pound weakened against the dollar in response to weaker-than-expected inflation data and to an upward revision by the Bank of England, at its early February policy meeting, of its assessment of the degree of slack in the labor market.",2022,0,348
314,"In considering the statement to be released following this meeting, members concurred that it should note that even with the rise in oil prices, the expansion remained firm and labor markets continued to improve gradually.",2011,1,299
247,"The central tendency rises to 2.4 to 2.7 percent next year, somewhat above estimates of the longer-run growth rate.",2012,1,242
885,This is perhaps because the emphasis on price stability is taken by some as carrying a hint of restrictive policy and as an inclination to always be leaning against cyclical increases in demand.,2020,2,858
908,"The foreign exchange value of the dollar, which depreciated immediately following the FOMC's November announcement of further asset purchases, subsequently appreciated amid intensifying concerns about stresses in the euro area and some apparent reassessment by investors of the monetary policy outlook in the United States.",2007,0,858
741,"The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been responsible for monetary policy decisions in the United States since it was established by the Banking Act of 1935, two decades after the founding of the Fed itself.2 The movement toward committees reflects the advantages of committees in aggregating a wide range of information, perspectives, and models.",2007,2,719
270,"To do that you've got to have price stability, and we've got to get back to price stability so that we can have a labor market where people's wages aren't being eaten up by inflation and where we can have a long expansion too.",2021,1,265
464,"Job gains had been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate had remained low.",2005,1,443
230,House price appreciation appeared to have slowed from the elevated rates seen over the past summer.,2001,2,221
409,"In these circumstances, domestic demand would need to decelerate considerably for growth to proceed at a sustainable pace.",2022,1,393
34,"And that is a statement about productivity growth, which has been pretty disappointing.",2020,1,34
179,"By definition, this excess of U.S. payments to foreigners over payments received in a given period equals the U.S. current account deficit, which, as I have already noted, was $666 billion in 2004--close to the $617 billion by which the value of U.S. imports exceeded that of exports.",2013,1,177
281,still being clear about the Committee's intention to provide the monetary accommodation needed to support a return to maximum employment and stable prices.,2008,0,270
993,"While deflation appears to have eased in Japan recently, it is difficult to know how much of the improvement is due to monetary policy, and, of the part due to monetary policy, how much is due to the zero-interest-rate policy and how much to quantitative easing.",2019,0,964
990,"Whether one looks at trailing or forward price-to-earnings ratios, equity risk premiums, or option prices, there is little basis for arguing that markets show excessive optimism about future returns.",1999,2,961
12,"A few participants also noted that uncertainty about the extent of resource slack in the economy was considerable and that it was quite possible that the economy could soon be operating close to potential, particularly if labor force participation rates did not turn up much while employment continued to register gains.",1996,2,12
778,The effect of a productivity slowdown on employment growth is likewise ambiguous in the medium term.,2005,2,755
1024,"Yet, with a few exceptions, the available data show that productivity growth in other advanced countries has not increased to the extent seen in the United States.",1999,0,992
474,"Indeed, an oft-quoted quip by economist Robert Solow held that, as of the late 1980s, ""computers are everywhere except in the productivity statistics.",2006,2,459
55,"Although participants had revised downward their projections for growth since their previous forecasts in June, they continued to anticipate that economic growth would pick up and the unemployment rate would decline gradually through 2014.",2000,2,55
808,"The price of a ton of cold rolled steel sheet, or a linear yard of cotton broad-woven fabrics, could be reasonably compared over a period of years.",2022,2,785
578,"Moreover, the staff still judged that the risks to the forecast for real GDP growth were tilted to the downside, with a corresponding skew to the upside for the unemployment rate.",2002,0,548
762,"Several participants noted ongoing challenges in the agricultural sector, including those associated with increased trade uncertainty, weak export demand, and the effects of wet weather and severe flooding.",2017,2,721
962,We are not seeing any evidence to date that a strong labor market is putting excessive cost-push pressure on price inflation.,2003,2,933
1023,"Yet as research has repeatedly demonstrated, these sorts of fundamentals only explain a small part of the variation in the prices of assets such as equities, long-term Treasury securities, and corporate bonds.",1999,2,991
180,"Despite the substantial monetary easing that had been implemented already and the fiscal stimulus, including federal tax rebates, that was in train, the forecast anticipated that sluggish hiring and the decline in household wealth would restrain the growth of both consumer spending and housing demand.",1999,0,174
176,"Depository institutions continued to bid aggressively for 28-day funds at the Term Auction Facility (TAF) during the intermeeting period, and demand for funds was strong at both of the 84-day TAF auctions.",1999,0,170
563,"Money versus Interest Rates For most of the post-World War II period, monetary economists have vigorously debated whether the Fed should target money or interest rates in setting policy.",1997,2,545
406,"In these circumstances, a pause seemed desirable to monitor the still-incomplete effects of the Committee's easing over the past year--a significant part of which had been implemented in recent months--and the contours of the turnaround in economic activity.",2022,0,390
935,The monitoring range for growth of total domestic nonfinancial debt was set at 3 to 7 percent for the year.,2012,2,884
171,"But we are also searching for an absolute concept, the point of balance between supply and demand in the respective markets that divides excess demand from excess supply--in effect, the origin in a diagram relating inflation to excess demand and supply.",2006,2,169
529,"Meeting Participants' Views and Committee Policy ActionIn conjunction with this FOMC meeting, all meeting participants-the four members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of the twelve Federal Reserve Banks-provided projections for economic growth, the unemployment rate, and consumer price inflation for each year from 2009 through 2011.",2003,2,500
857,"Therefore, maximum employment (at least if interpreted as full employment or being at NAIRU) and price stability, the statutory mandate of the Federal Reserve, are compatible in the long run.",2008,2,831
622,"Once this process is completed, however, we might expect consumer price inflation to move into better alignment with long-run expectations and thus settle in around 2 percent.",2017,2,602
491,"M3 growth slowed less than that of M2 in November, in part because of stepped-up issuance of large time deposits as banks reduced their reliance on funding from overseas offices.",2017,1,470
177,"Despite a large increase in the overall consumer price index for September, measures of inflation compensation calculated using yields on nominal and inflation-protected Treasury securities were about unchanged over the intermeeting period, although they remained a bit above the levels seen before Hurricane Katrina.",1999,1,171
919,"To be sure, financial market signals are noisy, and day-to-day movements in asset prices are unlikely to tell us much about the cyclical or structural position of the economy, let alone r* and expected inflation.",2022,2,891
927,"To provide some evidence for this assertion, as well as some reasons for it, I draw your attention to a speech that Chairman Greenspan made earlier this year, entitled ""Risk and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy"" (Greenspan, 2004).",2003,2,899
798,"Some participants suggested that the persistently high level of unemployment reflected the impact of structural factors, including mismatches between the skills of the unemployed and the skills demanded in sectors in which jobs were currently available.",2017,2,755
951,"The prospect of additional fiscal stimulus likely contributed to a steeper U. S. Treasury yield curve, increased inflation compensation, and broad dollar depreciation.",2012,1,899
319,"In contrast, a few participants cautioned that, despite increases in market-based measures of inflation compensation in recent months and the stabilization of some survey measures of inflation expectations, the levels of these indicators remained too low to be consistent with the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective.",2018,0,304
789,"Some participants believed that considerable labor market slack remained, especially when indicators other than the unemployment rate were taken into account, including the unusually large fraction of the labor force working part time for economic reasons.",2006,0,746
532,"Less uncertainty about future inflation could lower the risk premiums on nominal Treasury bonds, lowering the risk-free interest rate.",2005,0,514
588,"Most participants remarked that the standard of ""substantial further progress"" had been met with regard to the Committee's price-stability goal or that it was likely to be met soon.",2007,1,558
226,Econometric methods were also refined to improve estimation and to accommodate more-complex dynamics in money demand equations.,2000,2,222
924,"To do this will demand not only greater specialized knowledge, but also an ability to deal with risk and uncertainty.",2021,2,896
568,"Moreover, measures of labor compensation showed only moderate gains while relatively wide profit margins could allow firms to absorb somewhat larger increases in labor and other costs without boosting prices.",2019,2,539
120,"Back then, FOMC participants were forecasting unemployment rates around 7-3/4 percent and 7 percent for year-end 2013 and 2014, respectively, in our Summary of Economic Projections; as of the June 2013 round, these forecasts have been revised down roughly 1/2 percentage point each.",2022,2,119
20,"And inflation is moving—moving up, I think, toward our 2 percent objective.",2020,0,20
680,Participants generally expected that household demand would gradually strengthen over coming quarters in response to the rise in household wealth from the substantial increase in equity prices that had occurred over the intermeeting period as well as the support for income provided by fiscal policy.,2011,1,645
946,The persistence of underutilized resources was expected to foster some moderation in core price inflation.,2013,2,894
640,"On the upside, bottlenecks, supply disruptions, and historically high rates of resource utilization were seen as potential sources of greater-than-expected inflationary pressures, particularly if there were a significant rise in inflation expectations that altered inflation dynamics.",1998,1,607
928,"To quantify the importance of the shift in the balance of demand and supply and of the consequent change in the term premium, we can appeal to the research literature on the term structure of interest rates.",2003,2,900
1024,"These members indicated that the economic outlook remained positive and that they anticipated, under an unchanged policy stance, continued strong labor market conditions and solid growth in activity, with inflation gradually moving up to the Committee's 2 percent objective.",2002,2,966
920,The lagged effects of the substantial easing in monetary policy this year and the fiscal stimulus measures already enacted into law were expected to buttress demand and economic recovery over the next year.,2010,0,870
843,Theory also teaches that the increase in the rate of return on capital--even if generated by a rise in the growth rate of technical change--ultimately requires an increase in real market interest rates.,2004,1,818
95,"At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the SOMA in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: ""Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster maximum employment and price stability.",2016,0,92
420,"Increases in the prices of energy, other commodities, and non-oil imports, as well as reports from some business contacts that higher costs were increasingly being passed through to prices, suggested that the downtrend in inflation had ended.",2008,1,403
495,"Many expected those conditions to be met later this year, although several members were concerned about downside risks to the outlook for real activity and inflation.",2017,0,474
170,"Monetary policy has a role, and it really is in, you know—our original role was providing liquidity to financial systems when they’re under stress, and that’s—that’s really part of what we did today.",2014,0,165
421,"Indeed, a number of members saw merit in the staff forecast that some further disinflation was a likely prospect in such circumstances.",2008,0,404
1019,These arguments imply that slack in labor markets remains considerable and therefore that a reduction in the unemployment rate toward its longer-run normal level would not have much effect on inflation.,2020,0,961
412,"In contrast, changes in inflation rates in some services categories, such as shelter costs, tend to be more persistent.",2007,2,400
536,"Looking beyond this spring, my views on the appropriate pace of interest rate increases and balance sheet reduction for this year and beyond will depend on how the economy evolves.",2021,2,518
873,"The absence of further large gains in stock prices, should recent trends persist, would remove this stimulus and probably induce some moderation in the growth of consumer spending.",2010,2,824
488,"M2 expanded in February, however, as liquid deposits resumed their growth.",2008,0,467
662,"Profit margins have been running a little higher this year than last, aided importantly by strong growth in labor productivity.",2001,0,641
235,Households' longer-term inflation expectations also edged up in both November and December.,2020,1,226
751,Risks to the inflation projection also were seen as balanced.,2018,2,711
836,"The unemployment rate is at a 50-year low, inflation is close to our 2 percent objective, gross domestic product growth is solid, and the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) baseline outlook is for a continuation of this performance in 2020.2 At present, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price inflation is running somewhat below our 2 percent objective,",1999,2,813
766,"The corresponding depreciation in other countries currencies will result in a gradual increase in the foreign currency price of U.S. exports, compared to the prices of foreign produced goods.",2004,0,744
853,"There is, to be sure, no trade-off and hence no inconsistency between full employment and price stability in the long run.",2005,2,827
1041,"remained well below their levels at the beginning of the year, and that weaker demand and earlier declines in oil prices had been holding down consumer price inflation.",1996,1,981
294,"We understand that inflation dynamics evolve constantly over time, but they don’t change rapidly.",2019,2,287
183,"Our mandate, sorry, is price inflation.",2021,1,178
1010,"the new statement maintains our definition that the longer-run goal for inflation is 2 percent, it elevates the importance—and the challenge—of keeping inflation expectations well anchored at 2 percent in a world in which an effective-lower-bound constraint is, in downturns, binding on the federal funds rate.5 To this end, the new statement conveys the Committee's judgment that, in order to anchor expectations at the 2 percent level consistent with price stability, it will conduct policy to achieve inflation outcomes that keep long-run inflation expectations anchored at our 2 percent longer-run goal.",2005,1,979
759,"The bulk of the variation comes from what finance academics call ""changes in discount rates,"" which is a fancy way of saying the non-fundamental stuff that we don't understand very well--and which can include changes in either investor sentiment or risk aversion, price movements due to forced selling by either levered investors or convexity hedgers, and a variety of other effects that fall under the broad heading of internal market dynamics.",2021,2,737
787,"Some members observed that while slower growth in consumer spending was the most probable forecast, they saw an upside risk from the wealth effects of the large rise that had occurred in the value of stock market holdings.",2013,2,744
251,"First, if, as projected, core PCE inflation this year does come in at, or certainly above, 3 percent, I will consider that much more than a ""moderate"" overshoot of our 2 percent longer-run inflation objective.",2005,1,246
750,Risks to the inflation projection also were seen as balanced.,2018,2,710
84,"But many other commodity prices have fallen further, and the reason I would give for that is that the emerging markets—China, the rest of Asia, and some other parts of the world—plus Europe, of course, are softer, and so global commodity demand is weaker.",2020,0,81
126,"Because economic downturns typically result in even greater uncertainty about asset values, such episodes may involve an adverse feedback loop whereby financial disruptions cause investment and consumer spending to decline, which, in turn, causes economic activity to contract.",2003,0,125
653,"Over the intermeeting period, yields on short- and intermediate-term nominal Treasury securities fell, while yields on inflation-indexed Treasury securities of comparable maturity increased somewhat, pushing inflation compensation considerably lower at those horizons.",2019,0,619
587,"Most participants expected that, following the slowdown in the first quarter, real economic activity would resume expansion at a moderate pace, and that labor market conditions would improve further.",2007,2,557
900,"This volatility can impede the effective implementation of monetary policy, and we are addressing it.",2004,2,873
61,"As I mentioned, monetary policy operates with lags, so, the policies we have in place, we think, will gradually—only gradually—move inflation back to 2 percent.",2018,1,60
158,But is it really true that prices are more responsive to productivity than wages?,1998,2,156
126,"Broad stock price indexes rose, on net, over the intermeeting period, boosted in part by favorable earnings reports from the retail sector.",1999,2,123
435,"In particular, we are closely monitoring the emergence of the coronavirus, which is likely to have a noticeable impact on Chinese growth, at least in the first quarter of this year.",2021,0,422
533,Members agreed that the statement should continue to convey that inflation risks remained of greatest concern and that additional policy firming was possible.,2003,1,504
63,"Although some of the recent data on economic activity had been better than anticipated, most participants saw the incoming information as broadly in line with their earlier projections for moderate growth; accordingly, their views on the economic outlook had not changed appreciably.",2015,2,63
266,These base effects will contribute about 1 percentage point to headline inflation and about 0.7 percentage point to core inflation in April and May.,2022,2,261
1022,Workers in the lowest-wage quartile face an extremely elevated rate of unemployment of around 23 percent.7 The advent of widespread vaccinations should revive in-person schooling and childcare along with demand for the in-person services that employ a significant fraction of the lower-wage workforce.,1999,0,990
939,"Today, just nine months later, the unemployment rate is 7.6 percent--a larger decline than most FOMC participants expected in September.",2019,2,910
520,survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations were little changed.,2013,2,493
783,"Some members commented, however, that the relationship between the output gap and inflation was quite loose and that the outlook for productivity remained uncertain.",2013,2,740
303,"Fourth, I will discuss the major findings of the review as codified in our new Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy and highlight some important policy implications that flow from them.",2008,2,295
1102,"With crude oil prices expected to gradually decline from their current levels, the boost to retail food prices from the drought anticipated to be only temporary and comparatively small, long-run inflation expectations assumed to remain stable, and substantial resource slack persisting over the projection period, the staff continued to forecast that inflation would be subdued through 2014.",2020,2,1042
848,"There is much about the inflation process that we do not understand, and I have been surprised at the extent of the pickup in core inflation this year.",2005,1,823
719,Rapid increases in healthcare and other insurance costs and the lagged passthrough of large increases in oil prices would tend to maintain upward pressure on prices.,2005,1,683
222,"So, as I mentioned, we’re going to be looking at all of those things: activity, labor market, inflation.",2019,2,217
765,The complementarity of price stability with the other goals of monetary policy is now the consensus view among economists and central bankers.,2004,1,743
21,"A more robust contour for final sales over the forecast horizon would lead to somewhat greater pressure on resource margins, despite the expected strong growth of structural productivity, though the level of activity would remain below the economy's potential for some time.",2014,0,21
279,"We are quite aware that very low interest rates, particularly for a protracted period, do have costs for a lot of people.",2020,1,273
789,"The flow of macrodata received since May has been surprisingly strong, and GDP growth in the third quarter is estimated by many forecasters to have rebounded at roughly a 30 percent annual rate.",2004,1,766
288,"For example, the evidence suggests that changes in the demographic composition of the labor force affect NAIRU and it is also likely that government programs, including unemployment compensation and welfare, also affect NAIRU.",1997,2,282
345,"In light of these significant policy actions, the risks to growth were now thought to be more closely balanced by the risks to inflation.",2003,2,330
1002,"With a series of inflationary supply shocks, it is especially important to guard against the risk that households and businesses could start to expect inflation to remain above 2 percent in the longer run, which would make it much more challenging to bring inflation back down to our target.",2017,1,973
953,"The recent decline in mortgage rates had sparked some refinancing and purchase activity, but the extent of the longer-term impact of lower rates on housing demand remained uncertain.",2011,0,901
586,Most participants continued to think that the cyclical pressures associated with a tightening labor market were likely to show through to higher inflation over the medium term.,2007,1,556
1099,"With an increase in the target range at this meeting, the federal funds rate would be at or close to the lower end of the range of estimates of the longer-run neutral interest rate, and participants expressed that recent developments, including the volatility in financial markets and the increased concerns about global growth, made the appropriate extent and timing of future policy firming less clear than earlier.",2006,1,1039
286,"For example, monetary policy makers might attempt to influence market expectations of future short rates as an alternative to changing the current setting of the overnight rate.",1997,2,280
782,Some measures of inflation expectations were down notably over the intermeeting period.,2018,0,739
3,"""6 In the second half of the 1990s, this measurement puzzle was at the heart of monetary policymaking.7 Chairman Alan Greenspan famously argued that the United States was experiencing the dawn of a new economy, and that potential and actual output were likely understated in official statistics.",2007,2,3
122,"Balance Sheet Policies and Reserve Demand Taking stock, I note that one approach to the constraints on policy imposed by the current low level of interest rates is to make what were previously unconventional tools—balance sheet policies and forward guidance—as conventional as possible.",2007,2,121
16,Germany and Japan--whose economies have been growing slowly despite very low interest rates--have not.,1998,2,16
845,"The Committee directs the Desk to purchase GSE debt, GSE-guaranteed MBS, and longer-term Treasury securities during the intermeeting period with the aim of providing support to private credit markets and economic activity.",2001,0,796
855,The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals.,1998,2,806
295,"For instance, in countries where sovereign or corporate debt levels are high, higher interest rates could increase debt-servicing burdens and concerns about debt sustainability, which could be exacerbated by currency depreciation.",2004,0,287
763,The changes we made last year to our Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy are well suited to address today's challenges.,2005,2,741
143,"But I have showed that past experience actually indicates that a reduction in vacancies can take place without a big loss of employment, and this is the kind of soft landing anticipated by FOMC participants.",2022,2,141
818,The risk of higher inflation in this environment has two dimensions.,2020,1,795
406,"In addition, the maximum sustainable levels of output and employment cannot be known with any assurance (Mishkin, 2007b).",2019,2,394
123,"Based on historical experience, it seems improbable that all of the large rise in multifactor productivity could be attributed to cyclical or transitory factors.",2007,0,122
503,Many participants commented that measures of short-term inflation expectations were elevated or that far-forward measures of inflation compensation were near the upper edge of their historical range.,2002,1,482
589,My impression is that most investors agree that the change is an improvement in openness and transparency of monetary policy.,2021,2,571
450,"Inflation rose further in most foreign economies, reflecting a reversal of price declines seen in the spring of 2020, higher energy and commodity prices, and supply bottlenecks.",2016,1,429
222,"During the first stage, the inflation rate would exceed the long-term desired inflation rate, as the price-level gap was eliminated and the effects of previous deflation undone.",2000,1,218
711,"Pressures on labor resources were likely to ease somewhat as the expansion of economic activity slowed,",1996,2,675
1023,These members expected that the target range would be maintained at this level until they were confident that the economy had weathered recent events and was on track to achieve the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.,2002,2,965
157,"It was a question of not getting inflation up to our target on a robust, symmetric kind of a way.",2021,0,152
299,"Well, our policy approach doesn’t involve intentionally trying to raise inflation.",2020,1,292
148,"But before I return to the prospects for 1998 and the challenges for monetary policy, I will offer a retrospective on 1997.",2021,2,146
227,"So, with this coronavirus arriving, we judged that the—the net effects of this will be to—to have inflation move down even a little bit more.",2014,0,222
428,"Indeed, some members saw underlying inflation as relatively stable and put low odds on the possibility that prices now were accelerating.",2016,2,411
215,"Foreign economic growth remained sluggish, restrained by weak activity in Europe and the associated spillovers--including through trade--to the rest of the world.",2016,2,206
378,such costs appeared tolerable in light of the employment gains that came with them.,2019,2,368
426,"In our FOMC statements, we have indicated we expect to maintain the target range at this level until we are confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability goals.",2006,2,413
188,"Changes in the deficit resulting from changes in economic conditions, health prices, demographics, and other technical or economic factors were allowed to show through to the deficit without sanction.",2007,2,186
1026,These participants concluded that the Committee should wait to take another step in removing accommodation until the data on economic activity provided a greater level of confidence that economic growth was strong enough to withstand a possible downward shock to demand.,2002,0,968
255,"First, such a development would ultimately call for an upward revision to the targets for money growth, so that the money growth targets would remain consistent with an unchanged target for the inflation rate.",2001,0,250
363,I think it would be naive to assume that circumstances would not arise in which the central bank faced short-term choices between inflation stability and economic or financial stability.,2001,2,354
8,And I assure you that my colleagues and I will continue to conduct monetary policy without regard to political considerations.,2018,2,8
457,"In the past few years, the effect on the dollar of increased expectations about divergence between U.S. and foreign interest rates has been especially strong.9 The nearly 20 percent increase in the dollar over 2014 and 2015 coincided with falling real exports and import prices in the United States.",2021,0,443
628,"On balance over the intermeeting period, interest rates on private instruments registered small mixed changes while yields on longer-term Treasury securities declined significantly.",2005,0,595
793,Some participants mentioned upside risks around the inflation outlook that could arise if temporary factors influencing inflation turned out to be more persistent than expected.,2009,1,750
73,"And what is the risk that, in taking such steps, a central bank would be seen by investors as taking on partial responsibility for asset prices?",2000,2,72
150,But dividing that nominal value change into components representing changes in real quantity versus price requires that one define a unit of output that is to remain constant in all transactions over time.,2021,2,148
59,"Although your papers concentrate on the equity premium, I would like to take a few minutes today to broaden the discussion to encompass risk premiums in other markets and to highlight the connections between risk premiums and monetary policy.",1997,2,58
575,"Moreover, theory and intuition tell us that monetary credibility will be greatest when the central bank does what it is supposed to do: offset economic shocks to keep price pressures from building and thereby keep inflation itself low and stable.",2006,1,557
554,"Modern quantitative approaches to risk measurement and risk management take as their starting point historical experience with market price fluctuations, which is statistically summarized in probability distributions.",2020,2,536
29,"A substantial increase in lending to nonprime borrowers contributed to the bulge in residential investment in 2004 and 2005, and the tightening of credit conditions for these borrowers likely accounts for some of the continued softening in demand we have seen this year.",2005,2,28
448,"Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee's longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices.",2016,0,427
780,The emphasis was on providing currency and reserves to meet seasonal demands and on assisting banks in accommodating the credit needs of commerce and business.,2005,0,757
531,"Members agreed that the Federal Reserve was committed to using its full range of tools to support the U. S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum-employment and price-stability goals.",2003,2,502
785,The first driver is the long-term increase in the demand for currency and reserves.,2013,0,762
510,survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.,2020,2,487
463,"Job gains had been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate had declined.",2005,1,442
175,"But, as a consequence of low interest rates, the servicing requirement for that debt relative to homeowners' income is roughly in line with the historical average.",2004,0,173
1010,"The upswing in M2 growth since late winter stemmed in part from the temporary effects of mortgage refinancing, which boosted liquid deposits over this period, though M2 was also buoyed by strong gains in nominal income.",2012,0,952
279,"However, the projected step-up in real GDP growth over the second half of this year was marked down a little, partly reflecting softer news on construction.",1998,0,268
244,"in turn, larger expected productivity advances and a lower cost of equity capital provided a further stimulus to investment.",2006,2,239
210,"For a variety of reasons, oil prices already had risen appreciably since the start of the year.",2007,1,201
887,"This is yet another concerningly high reading, and it set another 40-year record high despite the expectation of many forecasters that inflation had peaked earlier in the year.",2020,1,860
423,"Indeed, economic growth abroad was widely viewed as dependent to a significant extent on the performance of the U. S. economy.",2022,2,406
445,"Inflation had been subdued,",2016,0,425
46,"Although I expect these upward price pressures to ease after the temporary supply bottlenecks are resolved, the exact timing of that dynamic is uncertain.",2006,1,45
704,"Spreads on risky private-sector debt reached very low levels, and damaging spillovers to the nonfinancial sector occurred in the form of unduly high real estate prices and excessive leverage by borrowers in the housing market.",2006,1,683
576,"Moreover, the outlook for foreign economic activity also appeared a bit weaker.",2002,2,546
404,"In their review of developments in key sectors of the economy, members again emphasized the ongoing strength in household spending and its vital role in moderating the weakness in overall economic activity.",2020,2,388
303,"In addition, the Committee reaffirmed its intention to keep the target federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and retained its forward guidance that it anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored.",2015,0,289
1027,These participants preferred to wait until there was greater assurance that the transmission mechanism of monetary policy via financial markets and the supply of credit to households and businesses was working effectively.,2002,2,969
844,There appears to have been some evolution in inflation-targeting regimes toward greater flexibility.,2004,0,819
98,"At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: ""Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster maximum employment and price stability.",2009,0,95
131,"Because inflation normally responds slowly to such shocks, inflation targeters could respond in any of three ways.",2007,1,130
237,"Even with the improving labor market, I still hear from businesses that qualified workers are difficult to find, and labor shortages remain a drag on hiring and on economic growth.",1996,0,233
829,"Survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations remained stable,",2000,2,781
1006,"With regard to our price-stability mandate,",2000,2,977
148,"Inflation has moved up in recent months, mainly reflecting higher prices for some commodities and imported goods.",2012,1,143
982,"What modern monetary policymaking has not faced for quite some time, if ever, has been a major surge in innovation--matching, if not exceeding, the other great waves this century--followed by an apparent elevation of productivity growth.",2022,0,953
321,"In contrast, economic activity declined in Japan during the third quarter after a surge in the first half of the year.",2018,2,306
904,"This week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) took another significant step toward achieving our inflation objective by raising the Federal Funds rate target by 75 basis points.",2004,1,877
419,"In essence, monetary credibility helps the central bank do its job, by inducing private sector participants also to take actions that help achieve the central bank's low inflation objective.",2022,1,406
291,increases in expected inflation will thus tend to promote greater actual inflation.,2004,2,284
96,"At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the SOMA in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: ""Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster maximum employment and price stability.",2016,0,93
1065,Total nonfarm payroll employment expanded at a solid pace in July and August.,2013,1,1005
446,"remained below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports.",2016,0,426
647,"Perhaps because those asset prices are important to spending, key macroeconomic indicators, such as the unemployment rate, exhibit a similar pattern.",2007,2,626
213,"Despite the uncertainties, the consensus estimates of the NAIRU and the growth of potential give us a hint about what type of landing we should be aiming for and which of the scenarios depicted in figure 1 best describe the economy's initial conditions and prospects.",1999,2,210
843,The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.,2013,2,794
907,"The forecast for headline inflation was in the same range as that for core inflation in 2008 and 2009, reflecting expectations that energy prices would level off and then turn down and that increases in food prices would slow to a pace more in line with core inflation.",2007,2,857
455,"It was generally agreed that developments relating to energy would continue to exert upward pressure on prices over the near term, including the passthrough or indirect effects of higher oil prices on core measures of inflation.",2020,1,434
905,"The federal funds rate averaged a little higher than the level expected with an unchanged policy stance, in part because of unexpectedly high demand for reserves in late July and early August.",2007,1,855
30,A third factor underpinning longer-run prospects for growth is the sustained strong uptrend in labor productivity.,2005,0,29
871,"The U. S. international trade deficit narrowed in May, as a large increase in exports of goods and services more than offset a moderate increase in imports.",2010,0,822
896,This role is largely a reflection of the New York Fed's responsibility for implementing monetary policy decisions through its open market desk operations.,1999,2,869
66,"Although the moderation in the growth of aggregate demand would help limit inflation pressures over time, the Committee judged that some inflation risks remained.",2018,1,66
161,Consumer spending firmed somewhat during the first quarter despite the rising unemployment rate and significant financial strains.,2014,0,157
250,"First, I will discuss the available empirical evidence from the United States on the effect of changes in asset prices on household consumption and business investment.",2005,2,245
520,It would have been difficult for the Committee to put forward a 7 percent unemployment goal when the current program started and unemployment was 8.1 percent; this would have involved a lot of uncertainty about the magnitude of asset purchases required to reach this goal.,2004,0,503
278,"However, the increase in real GDP was projected to be sufficient to reduce slack in the labor market only slowly, and the unemployment rate was expected to remain elevated at the end of 2012.",1998,2,267
220,"So you’re talking about the inflation target, basically.",2019,2,215
1060,"To a considerable extent, however, any uptick in inflation expectations likely represented a reversal of anticipated declines in inflation earlier this year when economic prospects had seemed weaker and survey data did not confirm any increase in long-term inflation expectations.",1998,2,1000
676,Participants expected that fiscal policy would continue to be a drag on economic growth over coming quarters.,2008,0,641
487,"M2 and M3 have posted very large gains in recent months, reflecting the effects of recent System easing actions on market interest rates and shifts of funds by households out of investments in equities and lower-rated corporate debt.",2008,0,466
198,So it’s a double whammy coming from higher gasoline prices.,2016,1,193
384,"In the view of one member, however, aggregate final demand was so strong that, with economic activity and the associated demand for labor having expanded at an unsustainable pace for some time, one could be reasonably confident that inflation would most likely pick up in the absence of policy action.",1996,1,369
867,The October SLOOS suggested that the recent slowdown in mortgage originations for home purchases was partly attributable to weaker demand.,2002,0,818
685,"Second, the correction in equity prices points to a downward revision to consumer spending and to business fixed investment and residential construction as well.",2006,0,664
260,The unemployment rate was 3.5 percent in February and has been at or near half-century lows for almost two years.,2015,2,255
1068,"Total nonfarm payroll employment was reported to have decreased in September, consistent with a substantial increase in the number of people who reported themselves as being absent from work due to bad weather and with payroll declines in the hurricane-affected states of Texas and Florida.",2013,0,1008
219,"So you’re right, you’re seeing—I, I can’t remember the number, but it might be in the 3s—3, 3½ percent growth for next year.",2019,2,214
928,The members also agreed that the risks remained weighted mainly in the direction of greater inflation pressures and that further tightening actions might be necessary to bring about financial conditions that were sufficiently firm to contain upward pressures on labor costs and prices.,2006,1,877
313,"In considering the effectiveness of the operating regime, the staff observed that over recent years, the Federal Reserve had been able to implement monetary policy in an environment with ample reserves by adjusting administered rates--including the rates on required and excess reserve balances and the offered rate at the overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility--without needing to actively manage the supply of reserves.",2011,2,298
293,core CPI inflation remained low.,2006,1,281
833,The tendency may be natural to allow more flexibility when central banks are focused on inflation maintenance than when they seek inflation reduction.,2021,0,810
642,"Once such expectations became imbedded in the economy, even stronger policy actions would be required in order to reestablish a downward trend of inflation.",1998,1,609
117,"I guess I would also urge you to remember that when you look at the projections, that there are many factors that affect those projections, and changes in tax policy—that’s only one of a number of factors, including incoming data that has, to some extent, altered the outlook for growth and inflation.",2019,2,112
802,several others thought that progress in achieving the Committee's inflation objective might lag if further appreciation of the dollar continued to depress non-energy commodity prices or if inflation was slow to respond to tighter resource utilization.,2017,2,758
137,"In any case, we, our job is to deliver price stability, and I think—you can think of price stability as an asset that just delivers large benefits to society over a long period of time.",2022,1,132
517,It will be a while before we can be sure that a self-sustaining expansion is underway of sufficient strength and persistence to put the economy back on a path toward full employment.,2000,0,500
393,"In a nutshell, I believe that the factors of globalization, deregulation, and financial innovation, arising partly in response to episodes of high inflation, have effectively eroded the central bank monopoly on the provision of monetary services and have enhanced global competition among currencies.",2020,2,381
403,"In their discussion of the economic situation and the outlook, meeting participants viewed the information received over the intermeeting period as suggesting that economic activity had been expanding moderately despite the global economic and financial developments of recent months.",2020,2,387
170,But this is largely accounted for by a convergence of inflation rates.,2006,2,168
748,The International Monetary Fund projects that global economic growth in 2019 will be the slowest since the financial crisis.,2020,0,726
298,"For the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at the Bank of England, they find heterogeneous views among voters, but no systematic differences based on whether the MPC member is an insider--that is part of the hierarchy at the Bank--or an outsider appointed for a short term just to the MPC; whether the person comes from an academic background; or whether that person has worked at the Treasury.",2020,2,290
952,"Under this interpretation, the lower line in the bottom panel of Figure 1 is an estimate of market inflation expectations over the next five years, and the upper line represents five-year forward expectations of inflation, that is, today's expectation of what average inflation will be between 2009 and 2014.",2005,2,923
176,"But, by June, prices had risen 4 percent over the previous 12 months, ticked up to 4.2 percent in July, and increased further to 4.3 percent in August.",2004,1,174
931,"The members generally agreed that, if necessary, their concerns about rising inflation could be addressed at the meeting in early February.",2012,1,880
1083,"While anecdotal reports suggested that softening was confined to only a few areas, the delayed effects of the drop in stock market prices and forecasts of slower employment and income growth suggested some moderation in housing activity at some point.",2017,0,1023
341,"In light of asset market developments over the intermeeting period, which in large part appeared to reflect heightened expectations among investors that the Federal Reserve would undertake additional purchases of longer-term securities, the November forecast was conditioned on lower long-term interest rates, higher stock prices, and a lower foreign exchange value of the dollar than was the staff's previous forecast.",2004,0,326
689,Participants noted the considerable uncertainty surrounding estimates of the output and unemployment gaps and the extent of their effects on prices.,2011,2,654
736,The Decline in Long-Term Interest Rates and the Role of Monetary Policy One of the most remarkable and fundamental changes in the global financial landscape over the past three decades has been the steady and significant decline in global sovereign bond yields.,2003,0,714
677,"Relative to the average episode, commercial real estate prices neither fell much during the recession nor rose a lot during the expansion.",2004,2,656
153,"But first, please allow me to offer a few remarks on the economic outlook and Federal Reserve monetary policy.",2000,2,151
369,"In the course of the Committee's discussion of the outlook for inflation, members commented that there was no persuasive evidence in recent statistical measures that price inflation was currently picking up or that inflation expectations were rising, though the declines in both inflation and expectations experienced over the course of recent years no longer seemed to be occurring.",1996,2,354
600,"Notably, if people feel sure that inflation will remain well controlled, they will be more restrained in their wage-setting and pricing behavior, which (in something of a virtuous circle) makes it easier for the Federal Reserve to confirm their expectations by keeping inflation low.",2003,1,581
167,"Core inflation was then expected to edge down in 2009 as the impetus from prior increases in the prices of imports, energy, and other commodities abated and the margin of slack in resource use widened.",2000,0,162
382,"If, in their quest to reduce macroeconomic risk, policymakers overshoot and ease policy too much, they need to be willing to expeditiously remove at least part of that ease before inflationary pressures become a threat.",2019,1,371
27,"A potential negative cited by some members was the possibility that a weak job market, should it persist, would at some point adversely affect overall consumer sentiment and willingness to spend.",2003,0,27
402,"In addition, at every policy meeting, each member of the MPC is operating with the same information from the staff, and before the quarterly meetings that precede an Inflation Report, the members have sat through a number of discussions covering all aspects of the forecast.",2000,2,390
310,"What we really mean is that we would look at—we know that inflation will move around on both sides of the target, and what we say is that we would be equally concerned with inflation persistently above as persistently below the target.",2017,2,303
474,"Later in the week, however, market interest rates moved up in response to the release of the minutes of the February meeting and the mention therein of some sentiment for a larger policy tightening than had been undertaken.",2022,1,453
144,"Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.",1996,0,141
43,"Again, the FOMC has done just that through its commitment to adjust policy as required to keep inflation at bay.",2007,1,42
965,"the outlook for housing activity remained favorable, given an overall economic performance in line with current forecasts of a robust expansion, related growth in incomes, and still relatively attractive mortgage interest rates.",1997,1,912
701,"Participants' Views on Current Economic Conditions and the Economic Outlook In conjunction with this FOMC meeting, participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2021 through 2024 and over the longer run based on their individual assessments of appropriate monetary policy, including the path of the federal funds rate.",1999,2,666
89,"As a monetary policy maker, I am interested in these links because the prices of financial assets affect the spending decisions of firms and households and because these prices may reveal forward-looking information relevant for setting policy.",2017,2,88
219,"Geopolitical uncertainties, notably those relating to developments in Iraq, frequently were cited by business contacts as a major reason for caution, but other factors inhibiting capital expenditures evidently included excess capacity and limited prospects for profits because of increased energy, insurance, pension, and other costs and a concomitant inability to raise selling prices.",2010,1,210
1075,Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices were holding down consumer price inflation.,2009,0,1015
984,The staff forecast prepared for this meeting suggested that the expansion in economic activity would slow in coming quarters to a pace somewhat above that of the economy's estimated potential and would moderate a bit further in 1998.,2019,1,928
140,Committee Policy Action Members viewed the information on U. S. economic activity received over the intermeeting period as suggesting that the economy had been expanding moderately and generally agreed that the economic outlook was broadly similar to that at the time of their March meeting.,2007,2,137
175,"Now, we have—you know, we haven’t anticipated that slowdown in productivity, and that’s one of the main reasons why we haven’t anticipated the relatively slow growth.",2021,0,170
733,"Recent data suggested that growth of household spending had moderated from its strong fourth-quarter pace, while business fixed investment continued to grow strongly.",2008,2,694
265,"These are, you know, this is—this is the economy at nearly full employment or in the range—in the neighborhood of full employment.",2022,1,260
89,"As long as the Federal Reserve is required to set and report ranges for money and debt growth, it should update them as appropriate.",2013,2,87
881,This information helps Committee members deduce how their own actions and statements are likely to affect asset prices and yields.,2003,2,854
27,And one reason for that is that long-term interest rates generally embody two factors.,2011,2,27
313,"Generally speaking, the growth of profits and the related buildup of cash have been broadly distributed across industries.",1998,2,305
581,"Most believed that downside risks to economic growth had diminished somewhat since the April meeting, but were still significant.",2021,0,551
195,"Even so, in the absence of major overhangs in inventories of business equipment and consumer durables, and given favorable conditions in financial markets, members believed that a resumption of moderate, sustainable growth after a relatively brief period of weakness was the most likely outlook for the economy.",2004,2,186
812,"The rationale for monetary policy tightening is, in my judgment, quite straightforward and flows from two assessments about the current state of the economy.",2007,1,789
466,In this case headline inflation will rise well above its underlying trend as the price of energy rises,2020,1,451
246,"Finally, while my assessment of maximum employment incorporates a wide range of indicators to assess the state of the labor market—including indicators of labor compensation, productivity, and price-cost markups—the employment data I look at, such as the Kansas City Fed's Labor Market Conditions Indicators, are historically highly correlated with the unemployment rate.9 My expectation today is that the labor market by the end of 2022 will have reached my assessment of maximum employment if the unemployment rate has declined by then to the SEP median of modal projections of 3.8 percent.",2006,2,241
492,Major equity indexes appeared to be supported by lower interest rates and posted modest gains despite the increases in energy prices.,2017,2,471
997,"The staff's near-term forecast for inflation was revised up a little, as recent data showed somewhat faster-than-anticipated increases that were judged to be only partly transitory.",2005,1,940
469,"In this less comfortable world, restoring price stability can involve a painful process of slow growth and elevated unemployment.",2019,1,454
874,The associated range for growth of total domestic nonfinancial sector debt was provisionally set at 3 to 7 percent for 1999.,2009,2,825
618,"Nonetheless, those restraining influences were expected to abate over time and economic activity strengthen gradually.",1996,2,586
1044,They noted that the realization of such a development could make it harder for the Committee to achieve 2 percent inflation over the longer run.,1996,2,984
784,The first area is the characterization of good monetary policy in increasingly realistic and complex model environments.,2013,2,761
612,"Of course, if excessive inflationary pressures were to build or inflation expectations were to ratchet above levels consistent with our goal, we would not hesitate to act.",2020,1,592
196,"Conclusion To sum up, none of us, obviously, can see the future, and instead we shall have to monitor incoming data closely for evidence of any shifts in recent productivity trends.",2007,2,194
192,Equity prices in most foreign countries were up moderately since the January FOMC meeting.,2005,2,183
850,"The Committee expects these effects to be transitory, but it will pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.",2009,2,801
915,"To abstract from the potential effects of cyclical factors on the yield curve, consider the pattern of forward rates many years into the future, at which point the effects of current cyclical shocks would be expected to no longer be important.2 Such forward rates reflect not only market expectations of future short-term interest rates",2003,2,887
35,"Accordingly, while the weight of current economic output is probably only modestly higher than it was a half century ago, value added, adjusted for price change, has risen well over threefold.",2004,2,34
1098,"While these developments were positive, participants noted several factors that likely would continue to restrain the expansion in economic activity.",2006,0,1038
189,"China has eased some of its most stringent COVID containment measures but recently revived travel restrictions in some areas, and its approach to the pandemic remains an upside risk for inflation.",2007,1,187
372,"If labor demand cools, will separations increase and shift the curve outward, increasing unemployment further?",2001,0,362
542,"Many would ask what challenges could monetary policymakers possibly face in the U.S., given the remarkable combination of consistent above-trend growth and declining inflation?",1999,2,524
859,"The Committee's accompanying statement noted that economic growth had slowed over the course of the year, partly reflecting a substantial cooling of the housing market.",2004,0,810
1082,"While accommodative financial conditions and reduced income tax rates should continue to undergird consumer spending and the data on retail sales for July displayed relatively impressive gains, negative wealth effects from falling stock market prices, declining payrolls, and sluggish income gains--should they persist--might well depress consumer expenditures over coming months.",2017,0,1022
728,"Real yields increased more than their nominal counterparts, while inflation compensation implied by Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities declined.",2008,2,690
504,Many participants noted that they expected household spending to be a primary contributor to economic growth going forward.,2002,2,483
162,"But some would argue that monetary policy is actually further away from neutral, based on the fact that current inflation is so much higher than the federal funds rate.",1997,1,160
593,"Nevertheless, the role of this consideration in inflation dynamics should not be overlooked or underestimated.",1999,2,574
485,"Looking to the future, however, the members generally agreed that the risks were in the direction of a heightening in inflation pressures despite their belief that growth in overall demand now seemed to have declined to a more sustainable pace and probably would continue to expand for a time at a rate below that of the economy's output potential.",2004,1,464
826,"The slowing economy, together with rising interest rates, was in turn a major factor in precipitating the stock market crash.",2001,2,803
116,"At the time, we could only observe outcomes that did not fit with preconceptions; try to find rationales that explained what we were seeing; and in the process, derive implications about the future that could be used to guide a forward-looking monetary policy.",2022,2,115
96,"But, really, it isn’t monetary policy.",2022,2,92
848,"The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate.",2001,0,799
333,"Household spending stepped up in mid-April, coinciding with the first disbursement of stimulus payments to households and a ramp-up in the payout of unemployment benefits, and showed the most pronounced increases in the states that received more benefits.9 With some of the fiscal support measures either provided as one-off payments or slated to come to an end in July, the strength of the recovery will depend importantly on the timing, magnitude, and distribution of additional fiscal support.",2007,0,324
81,"Apart from notably adverse business sentiment and disappointing growth in sales and profits, factors that were curbing capital expenditures cited by members included persisting capital overhangs stemming from what were now seen as excessive earlier buildups in equipment and software and substantial idle capacity in many industrial and commercial structures.",2015,0,81
57,"Although we are hearing some reports of large retailers planning markdowns due to excess inventories, we do not have hard data at an aggregate level suggesting that businesses are reducing margins in response to more price sensitivity among customers.",1997,2,56
133,"If you look at core PCE inflation, which is a good measure of where inflation is running now, if you look at it on a 3-, 6-, and 12-month trailing annualized basis, you’ll see that inflation is at 4.8 percent, 4.5 percent, and 4.8 percent.",2021,1,128
922,The latter could well be augmented by sharply rising medical costs and by attempts to protect the purchasing power of wages from the erosion caused by the rise in energy prices.,2010,1,872
510,"It is important to note, however, that although sound policy undoubtedly helped create the conditions for growth, macroeconomic policy cannot create growth itself.",1999,2,493
1020,These downside risks were seen as essentially counterbalanced by the upside risk that inflation could increase more than expected in an economy that was projected to move further above its longer-run potential.,2020,1,962
890,"This modal projection for the path of the unemployment rate is, according to the Atlanta Fed jobs calculator, consistent with a rebound in labor force participation to its estimated demographic trend and is also consistent with cumulative employment gains this year and next that, by the end of 2022, eliminate the 7 million ""employment gap"" relative to the previous cycle peak I mentioned earlier.5 As is the case for GDP growth and the unemployment rate, my projections for headline and core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) inflation are also similar to the paths of the SEP median of modal projections for these variables.",2006,2,863
592,Mr. Broaddus dissented because he continued to believe that a modest tightening of policy would be prudent in light of the apparent persisting strength in aggregate demand for goods and services.,2005,1,562
98,"As is evident in the right-hand chart, the relationship between the growth differential and capital inflows to EMEs seems to be quite strong.",2022,2,97
530,"Last year was the fifth consecutive year that inflation, measured by the chain GDP price index, was 2.6% or lower and the 5-year compound annual inflation rate is now 2.5%, the lowest since 1967.",1998,0,512
977,"The staff continued to view the uncertainty around its projections for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation as generally similar to the average of the past 20 years.",1998,2,922
760,"The challenge is to set a strategy that respects this uncertainty, takes advantages of opportunities for better performance, while mitigating the risks of overtaxing the limits of sustainable production and growth.",2005,2,738
803,"Some saw a risk that inflationary pressures might develop more rapidly than currently anticipated as resource utilization tightened,",2017,1,758
846,"The Committee directs the Desk to purchase agency debt, agency MBS, and longer-term Treasury securities during the intermeeting period with the aim of providing support to private credit markets and economic activity.",2001,0,797
1015,The weakness in commodity prices and the appreciation of the dollar also continued to weigh on activity in the energy and agricultural sectors.,2001,0,957
1001,The threat to global economic growth and financial stability posed by the fiscal situation in some European nations sparked widespread flight-to-quality flows over most of the intermeeting period.,2005,2,944
686,"September 01, 2020 Bringing the Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy into Alignment with Longer-Run Changes in the Economy Governor Lael Brainard At ""How the Fed Will Respond to the COVID-19 Recession in an Era of Low Rates and Low Inflation,"" an event hosted by the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. (via webcast) Share Watch Live I want to thank David Wessel for hosting this event.",2006,2,665
784,"Some members expressed a concern that in this context any further adverse shocks could have disproportionate effects, resulting in a significant slowing in growth going forward.",2013,0,741
482,"Looking ahead, the anticipated pickup in employment and related gains in incomes, undergirded by continued robust growth in structural productivity, was seen as supporting further expansion in consumer spending.",2004,1,461
693,"Participants' Views and Committee Policy ActionIn conjunction with this FOMC meeting, all meeting participants--the five members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks--provided projections for economic growth, the unemployment rate, and consumer price inflation for each year from 2009 through 2011 and over a longer horizon.",1997,2,658
124,"Because an interest rate, by definition, is the exchange rate for money against non-monies, money obviously is central to monetary policy.",2007,2,123
33,And so you’re seeing prices are moving back up off their lows there.,2020,1,33
193,European equity prices were also lower over the period.,2005,2,184
380,"If this policy succeeds ex post, inflation expectations become anchored at the new lower level of inflation, and policy can, then, respond to demand shocks by adjusting real rates pro-cyclically, the opposite of what is required when initial inflation is too high and inflation expectations are not anchored.13 Inflation will also be pro-cyclical with well-anchored inflation expectations if demand shocks dominate and inflation expectations remain anchored.",2019,2,369
253,"However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee's employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated.",2007,1,244
364,"I will focus my remarks today on the use of explicit forward guidance as a tool for monetary policy.1 Before I start, let me briefly discuss near-term monetary policy.",2001,2,355
684,Participants judged that it would be appropriate to move the stance of monetary policy toward a neutral posture expeditiously.,2011,2,649
727,"That said, our model accords the greatest roles to increased productivity growth, which has made the United States a magnet for foreign saving, and to the slump in foreign domestic demand, which has led to an excess of saving in those economies.",2007,0,705
174,"But, again underscoring an earlier point, this tightness of the labor market has not manifested itself in ongoing escalation of wage inflation.",2004,1,172
339,"In keeping with its usual procedures under the Humphrey-Hawkins Act, the Committee would review its ranges at midyear, or sooner if interim conditions warranted, in light of the growth and velocity behavior of the aggregates and ongoing economic and financial developments.",1999,2,324
1025,You might ask: Does successful monetary policymaking really require all this additional knowledge?,1999,2,993
325,"In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective.",2001,2,310
496,"Inflation in 1996, measured by the chain price index for GDP or the core CPI, was the lowest in 30 years.",2005,0,480
741,"Reports from several Districts suggested that firms had greater scope than in the recent past to raise prices in response to strong demand or increases in input costs, including those associated with tariff increases and recent rises in fuel and freight expenses.",2012,1,701
925,"The median expectation for inflation over the next 5 to 10 years from the Michigan survey edged down in October to a new historical low,",2010,0,874
509,"It is generally thought that monetary policy takes many months to have most of its effect on the growth of output and employment, while, of course, it has an immediate impact on financial markets.",2020,2,492
929,"The members concluded that retaining a risk statement weighted toward more inflation pressures would best represent their current thinking, but they believed it was desirable to provide some recognition of the emergence of increased downside risks to the economic expansion in the statement to be released after this meeting.",2006,1,878
1034,"They also generally expected that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term.",2017,1,976
712,Pressures on resources would rise as the anticipated upturn and possible above-trend growth brought the economy closer to full capacity utilization.,1996,1,676
865,"The Federal Reserve Bank of New York was authorized and directed, until instructed otherwise by the Committee, to execute transactions in the System Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: The information reviewed at this meeting suggests that the expansion in economic activity has slowed considerably after a very rapid advance in the first quarter.",2002,0,816
289,"If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability.",2015,0,277
139,"Between the end of July and the FOMC's September meeting, we will get two employment and CPI reports with data for July and August.",2000,2,137
119,"Both total and core inflation were projected to move up slightly next year, as the low readings early this year were expected to be transitory, but nevertheless to continue to run below 2 percent.",2011,0,116
94,"But, certainly, we’ve had a lot of years in which interest rates have been low.",2022,2,90
1092,"While participants viewed the downside risks to their forecasts of economic activity over the projection period as having diminished, their assessment of the most likely outcomes for economic activity and inflation over the projection period was not greatly changed.",2004,2,1032
494,"Major stock price indexes were up a bit over the intermeeting period, as positive first-quarter earnings reports more than offset the negative effects of higher energy prices and rising interest rates.",2017,1,473
263,"However, other participants noted that the continued subdued trend in wages was evidence of an absence of upward pressure on inflation from the current level of resource utilization.",2006,0,254
385,Implications of Economic Theory I am going to assert some conclusions based on economic theory that help to understand the potential for monetary policy to achieve these objectives and the consistency among them.,2022,2,374
1007,"the new statement maintains our definition that the longer-run goal for inflation is 2 percent, it elevates the importance—and the challenge—of keeping inflation expectations well anchored at 2 percent in a world in which an effective-lower-bound constraint is, in downturns, binding on the federal funds rate.",2000,2,977
717,"Prominent among these risks were a possible intensification of strains in the euro zone, with potential spillovers to U. S. financial markets and institutions and thus to the broader U. S. economy; a larger-than-expected U. S. fiscal tightening; and the possibility of a further slowdown in global economic growth.",2005,0,681
163,But speculators rarely succeed in dislodging an exchange rate that is firmly rooted in compatible policies and cost structures.,1997,2,161
391,"In their discussion of considerations related to asset purchases, various participants noted that these purchases were an important part of the monetary policy toolkit and a critical aspect of the Federal Reserve's response to the economic effects of the pandemic, supporting smooth financial market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, which aided the flow of credit to households and businesses and supported the recovery.",2021,0,375
308,"From the end of 2000 to the end of 2003, productivity rose at a 3-1/2 percent annual rate and, even after recent downward revisions to the data, it is estimated to have increased at an average annual rate of 2-1/4 percent since the end of 2003.",2021,2,300
764,Several participants noted the increase in agricultural crop prices over 2020 and the associated improvement in farm revenues.,2017,2,723
1081,"While a preemptive tightening move might be warranted in the not-too-distant future to help contain inflationary pressures in the economy, these members believed that a symmetrical directive would best convey the message that no tightening action was contemplated for the weeks immediately ahead.",2017,1,1021
737,"Recent increases in house prices and equity prices were positives,",2007,2,698
547,"May 26, 2021 The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Vice Chair for Supervision Randal K. Quarles At the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. (via webcast) Share Watch Live Thank you, David, and thank you to Brookings and the Hutchins Center for the opportunity to lead things off and be part of this very distinguished panel.",2017,2,529
117,"Beyond 2017, the forecast for real GDP growth was little revised.",2018,2,114
841,"Their key finding, illustrated in figure 3, is that Federal Reserve policy rate surprises attributed to stronger U.S. growth generally have only moderate spillovers to EM financial conditions, whereas U.S. policy rate changes attributed to U.S. inflationary pressures trigger more substantial spillovers to EM financial conditions.",1999,2,816
532,"Members agreed that the Federal Reserve was committed to using its full range of tools to support the U. S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum-employment and price-stability goals.",2003,0,503
1047,"This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.",2015,2,987
708,"Potentially, waiting could require more disruptive policy tightening actions later and could risk the credibility of the System's anti-inflation policy.",2001,1,673
434,"In particular, the unemployment rates in the metropolitan areas of South Dakota have consistently been lower than in rural areas, and this relative abundance of job opportunities has tended to encourage migration to areas such as Sioux Falls.",2021,2,421
856,"Therefore, even in the case of personal computers, where we have made such great strides in measuring quality changes, I suspect that important phenomena still may not be adequately captured by our published price indexes.",2008,2,830
981,What implications do these results have for our broader understanding and for the practice of monetary policy?,2022,2,952
413,"In contrast, in cases in which variations in the demand for reserves or in external factors affecting reserve supply appear likely to be temporary, the Desk typically prefers to conduct open-market operations through short-term or long-term repurchase agreements, known as repos.",2007,2,401
15,"A few participants expressed less confidence in this outlook for inflation and commented that inflation had averaged less than 2 percent over the past several years even as resource utilization had increased, or pointed to downward pressures from global or technology-related factors that could continue to suppress inflation.",2020,0,15
248,"Financial markets are the channel through which our policy affects the economy, and asset prices contain valuable information about investors' expectations for the course of policy, economic activity, and inflation, as well as about the risks around those expectations.",2005,2,243
518,Market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low,2013,0,492
335,"In general, participants viewed recent consumer price developments as consistent with their expectation that inflation was on a trajectory to achieve the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective on a sustained basis.",1999,2,320
541,"Many potential inflation targeters ask, ""Why not zero?""",1999,2,523
228,"So, you know, I can’t—all I can tell you is, we’ll be looking at weak global growth.",2014,0,223
76,"An environment involving such interest rates could have adverse repercussions on the functioning of some sectors of the money market, but the members agreed that the potential extent of such disruptions would not be sufficient to prevent the Committee from taking advantage of the full scope of conventional easing of the federal funds rate, should that become necessary.",2002,0,76
816,"The result could be cross-border spillovers from the increase in U.S. domestic demand, reducing the effect on U.S. real activity and inflation and potentially contributing to external imbalances.",2020,2,793
246,The central tendency of the unemployment rate projections is slightly lower than in the March projections and now stands at 6.0 to 6.1 percent at the end of this year.,2012,0,241
1088,"While more moderate growth in consumer spending for durable goods seemed likely after an extended period of robust expansion, these favorable factors suggested that the risks of a different outcome were tilted in the direction of faster-than-projected expansion.",2002,1,1028
19,"And in so far as that will affect monetary policy, of course we will have to factor those policies along with many other things, including the global environment and oil prices and other matters.",2013,2,19
276,"However, the deficit was up appreciably from its average for the first quarter, with the value of imports increasing substantially more than the value of exports.",1998,1,265
886,"This is the scenario from which we draw the lesson that timely, typically preemptive, policy restraint to avoid the excesses of a boom results in longer expansions and avoids unnecessary fluctuations in both output and inflation.",2020,1,859
35,"Advances in productivity had boosted profit margins, and high margins were helpful in that they could absorb some portion of any cost increases for a time.",2015,2,35
654,"Over the medium term, participants expected strong growth in employment, driven by continued progress on vaccinations and an associated rebound of economic activity and of consumer and business confidence, as well as accommodative fiscal and monetary policy.",2012,0,620
731,That's why I said that flexibility is also an important characteristic of monetary policy during a time of financial turmoil.,2005,0,709
906,Three Asset-Price-Bust Episodes Let us first examine the U.K. recession of 1974.,2007,2,879
637,Our goal of price stability was achieved by most analysts' definition by mid-2003.,2002,0,616
193,"So I, you know, I’m—I feel quite comfortable that we can—in particular, that we can raise interest rates at the appropriate time, even if the balance sheet remains large for an extended period.",2020,1,188
762,"The changes to the policy statement that we made over the past few FOMC meetings bring our policy guidance in line with the new framework outlined in the revised Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy that the Committee approved last August.4 In our new framework, we acknowledge that policy decisions going forward will be based on the FOMC's estimates of ""shortfalls [emphasis added] of employment from its maximum level""—not ""deviations.""",2005,0,740
1029,"These participants stated that, in such circumstances, a major challenge facing policymakers—especially in the presence of the effective lower bound on the federal funds rate—was to maintain a policy stance sufficiently accommodative to keep average inflation at 2 percent and thereby bolster the credibility of the Committee's new policy framework, facilitating the achievement of both maximum employment and price stability.",2007,0,971
160,It will include all data relevant to our dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment.,2020,2,155
490,"M2 growth picked up appreciably during December and January, evidently reflecting extra demands for liquidity and safety during the century-date-change period.",2008,0,469
1009,The unwinding in the early months of 1997 of special factors that had boosted net exports in the fourth quarter of 1996 was offsetting some of the effects on production of the persisting strength in domestic demand.,2012,2,951
566,"More recently, with inflation under control, overheating has shown up in the form of financial excess.",2002,1,548
112,"At the same time, the staff viewed the risks around its outlook for the unemployment rate as roughly balanced.",2021,2,109
522,Japan enjoyed effective price stability through most of the 1980s.,2004,2,505
230,That is a positive for growth.,2016,2,225
1014,"The vote encompassed approval of the statement below to be released at 2:00 p. m. : ""Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that growth in economic activity has picked up recently, after having slowed sharply during the winter in part because of adverse weather conditions.",2001,2,956
792,The guidance indicates an expectation that it will be appropriate to maintain the current target range of the federal funds rate until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.,1997,2,769
724,"still outpace that of potential over this period, leading to a decline in the unemployment rate to historically low levels, as monetary policy was assumed to remain highly accommodative.",2008,0,686
358,"In the Committee's discussion of current and prospective economic developments, members referred to the widespread statistical and anecdotal evidence that the surprising strength in economic activity over the closing months of 1996 was persisting in 1997.",1997,1,343
136,"In addition, the median estimate of the longer-run normal unemployment rate moved down a tenth to 4.6 percent.",2022,1,131
832,"Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.",2000,0,783
399,"In their discussion of prices, participants indicated that data over the intermeeting period, including measures of inflation expectations, suggested that underlying inflation was not in the process of moving higher.",2021,2,383
830,"The strong support from monetary policy, together with fiscal stimulus, should turn the K-shaped recovery into a broad-based and inclusive recovery that delivers full employment, as Mike McCracken would have wished.",2001,0,807
43,And we’d like to see that in the form of a series of declining monthly inflation readings—that’s what we’re looking for.,2017,1,43
365,"In the circumstances, most members endorsed a proposal to delete as no longer necessary the previous summary statement relating to the risks to growth and inflation taken together.",1996,2,350
307,"What I’m telling you is that the stance of monetary policy we have today, we believe, is appropriate.",2017,2,300
595,"Much of the current spending for equipment and software reportedly represented replacement demand largely associated with the short useful lives of various types of equipment, and there appeared to be little spending that would entail capital deepening.",2006,2,565
405,"In their review of the outlook for prices, members noted that incoming data over the intermeeting period had shown a slowing in core inflation from the high levels posted earlier in the year, consistent with the Committee's view that a portion of the earlier increase had reflected transitory factors.",2020,2,389
732,Recent data pointed to little change in underlying inflation trends.,2008,2,693
202,"Financing conditions in capital markets remained broadly accommodative, supported by low interest rates and high equity valuations.",2014,0,193
459,"In the productivity boom that followed World War I, a chief technological innovation was the spread of electrification to the factory floor.",2021,2,445
142,But I have seen little direct evidence on the extent to which globalization may have boosted aggregate productivity growth in the United States in recent years.,2022,2,140
578,"Moreover, when some measures of inflation were close to 1 percent in 2003, the Federal Open Market Committee's official statements specifically noted that any further substantial decline in inflation would be unwelcome, mainly because of the risk that a falling price level (which has not occurred since the Great Depression) could cause a significant disruption to economic activity and employment.",2021,0,560
856,The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals.,1998,2,807
879,"This effort culminated in 1943 with the publication of Banking and Monetary Statistics, which included annual figures on demand and time deposits from 1892 and on currency from 1860.",2003,2,852
32,"Accordingly, in the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful consideration to economic, financial, and monetary developments, the Committee decided that a slightly higher federal funds rate might be acceptable or a somewhat lower federal funds rate would be acceptable during the intermeeting period.",2022,2,32
880,"This equation relates inflation to, among other factors, lagged inflation, resource utilization, and movements in the relative price of imports excluding energy, semiconductors, and computers.",2003,2,853
1000,"The steepening of the yield curve was due mostly to sharply lower short- and intermediate-term forward rates, consistent with investors' apparently more pessimistic outlook for economic growth.",2005,0,943
1114,they differed to some extent regarding the prospects for further increases in inflation.,2015,2,1053
930,"To see this, suppose that a speculative bubble has emerged and that a central bank, operating under a conventional strategy, has raised interest rates to keep the projected output gap closed and expected inflation at its desired level before the bubble bursts.",2003,1,902
294,"For inflation, we can use the 12-month change in core PCE prices, a measure of the current underlying rate of inflation.",2004,2,286
251,"The housing sector has fully recovered from the downturn, supported in part by low mortgage interest rates.",2021,0,246
146,"But because the United States has run persistent and sizable primary trade deficits since 1990, the net external debt is now 25 percent of GDP and rising sharply.",2022,1,144
475,"Indeed, an oft-quoted quip by economist Robert Solow held that, as of the late 1980s, ""computers are everywhere except in the productivity statistics.""",2006,2,460
484,"Indeed, scattered evidence dating back to ancient Rome and before reflects the same order of interest rate magnitude, not a one percent interest rate nor 200 percent.",2005,2,468
731,Recent data on core consumer prices led the staff to mark down slightly its forecast for core PCE inflation.,2008,0,692
268,"However, reports from business contacts in several Districts indicated that employers in labor markets in which demand was high or in which workers in some occupations were in short supply were raising wages noticeably to compete for workers and limit turnover.",2000,1,259
635,"Other economies, such as Argentina and Hong Kong, have fixed their exchange rates essentially through currency boards.",2002,2,614
568,"More subtly, my conclusion that the effects on inflation of transitory changes in commodity prices or in the value of the dollar tend to dissipate in the longer run depends on the assumption that the public's inflation expectations are well anchored.",2002,2,550
647,another indicated that the Committee could provide guidance stating that it would not raise its target for the federal funds rate if the inflation rate was expected to run below a given level at a specific horizon.,1999,0,614
201,Consider our estimates of real economic activity.,2019,2,199
176,"Now, we’ve long expected, as most analysts have, to see some slowing in Chinese growth over time as they rebalance their economy.",2021,0,171
393,"In their discussion of forward guidance about the target federal funds rate, a few members suggested that lowering the unemployment threshold to 6 percent could effectively convey the Committee's intention to keep the target federal funds rate low for an extended period.",2021,0,377
252,"First, insofar as recent productivity growth is concerned, I have a serious question about the quality of the data that we employ to measure output in today's economy.",2005,2,247
271,"However, some others emphasized that deferring the decision until later in the year would permit additional time to assess the outlook for economic activity and inflation.",2008,2,262
84,"As Chair Powell indicated in his Jackson Hole remarks, we think of our new framework as an evolution from ""flexible inflation targeting"" to a ""flexible form of average inflation targeting.",2022,1,83
298,"In July, the range for M3 had been raised by two percentage points to reflect developments that seemed to be fostering a return to the historical pattern of somewhat faster growth in M3 than in M2.",2006,0,284
752,Setting the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances 15 basis points below the top of the target range for the federal funds rate was intended to foster trading in the federal funds market at rates well within the FOMC's target range.,2018,2,712
149,"Consumer credit continued to increase at a steady pace, with similar growth rates across credit card, automobile, and student loans.",2006,1,146
1093,"While prices in equity markets had turned up from their recent lows, the cumulative losses in financial wealth incurred since early 2000 clearly were having an adverse impact on expenditures by households and the higher cost of equity capital was inhibiting business investment.",2004,0,1033
237,The American economy is very strong and well positioned to handle tighter monetary policy.,2016,1,232
415,"In contrast, the rise in oil prices during the 1970s was probably seen at the time as largely reflecting a permanent shift in global demand/supply balances.",2022,1,403
767,"The current global environment highlights the importance of having strong analytic and empirical foundations to understand financial stability considerations for monetary policy, and the research presented today will help strengthen those foundations.1 The global environment of high inflation and rising interest rates highlights the importance of paying attention to financial stability considerations for monetary policy.",2004,1,745
83,"Any of these factors might imply that the equilibrium rate relevant for policy returns more quickly to, or even moves above, its long-run level as fewer forces weigh on aggregate demand.",2022,2,82
625,One measure of the decline in recent years of the marginal cost of additions to oil availability is the downdrift in the prices of the most distant contracts for future delivery of Light Sweet crude oil.,2020,2,605
705,"Still, if aggregate demand and potential aggregate supply follow the paths that I outlined earlier, the slack in resource utilization should diminish, unit labor costs should begin to move higher, and the underlying rate of inflation should stabilize.",2006,2,684
129,"Because his econometric analysis of the available data indicated that money demand was more stable than aggregate demand, Bill formulated a simple rule that adjusted the money growth rate in response to the observed unemployment rate.",2003,1,128
739,"Regarding the economic outlook, most participants agreed that economic growth was likely to remain moderate over coming quarters and then pick up gradually.",2007,2,699
611,"Nonetheless, the Committee judged that some inflation risks remained.",2021,1,580
1118,"With sales contracting and inventory imbalances still substantial, the manufacturing sector continued its sharp slide, and aggregate employment plunged.",2007,0,1056
994,The staff's forecast for core PCE price inflation this year was revised down a little in response to recent data.,2021,0,937
299,"For the United States, for example, the figure highlights the long run-up and subsequent fall in asset prices before the 2001 recession.",2020,2,291
1123,"With the restraint from fiscal policy assumed to increase next year, the staff projected that increases in real GDP would not significantly exceed the growth rate of potential output in 2013.",2003,2,1061
949,Ultimately inflation is determined by the policy actions of the central bank.,2000,2,920
746,"The Federal Reserve then sets its policy to achieve the broad objectives assigned to it, specifically, price stability and full employment.",2020,1,724
1050,"This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments.",2004,2,990
99,"As its name implies, this rule does not prescribe a particular level of the federal funds rate at a given time but rather how the existing rate should change from quarter to quarter based on two gaps--the difference between inflation and its desired level as well as the difference between the unemployment rate and its longer-run normal level.20 In contrast to the other two rules, the change rule does not take a stand on the value of the longer-run neutral level of the real federal funds rate, thus avoiding a potential source of error.",2022,2,98
180,"On the other hand, by that metric, the, the September 16, 2020 unemployment rate would have been in the—in the 20s in, in April.",2021,2,175
91,"growth in the far larger part of the services economy, which has led to low unemployment, good job creation, rising wages, that’s kind of the two big pieces of it that you see.",2014,1,88
820,"The second is intermediate-term need for reserve expansion and contraction, arising, for example, from seasonal changes in the demand for currency and reserves.",2020,2,797
616,"Of the 1,700 Washington employees, roughly 250 are Ph.D. economists, the majority of whom support the Board's monetary policy responsibilities.",2002,2,596
931,success was fairly uniform across both the inflation-targeting and nontargeting countries.,2007,2,903
37,"And the maximum level of employment that’s consistent with price stability evolves over time within a—within a business cycle and over a longer period, in part reflecting [the] evolution of the factors that affect labor supply, including those related to the pandemic.",2022,2,37
255,"However, in the view of at least some members, recent developments had reduced the unwelcome prospect of substantial additional disinflation.",2014,2,246
705,"Particularly in light of persistent low readings on inflation and from indicators of inflation expectations along with the risks to the U. S. outlook associated with global economic developments, he noted that a policy rate reduction at the current meeting would help re-center inflation and inflation expectations at levels consistent with the Committee's symmetric 2 percent inflation objective and simultaneously provide some insurance against unexpected developments that could slow U. S. economic growth.",2001,0,670
219,too pessimistic on job creation and the decline in the unemployment rate.,2017,0,216
322,"Greater rates of productivity growth in the United States, compared with still-subdued rates abroad, have apparently engendered comparable differences in risk-adjusted expected rates of return and hence in the demand for U.S.-based investment assets.",1999,0,313
896,"The expansion of M2 had declined substantially since late spring, apparently in part as a result of the widening opportunity costs of holding assets in M2 stemming from higher market interest rates and possibly also from slackening growth in household incomes.",2009,1,847
44,All members agreed that the statement to be released after the meeting should convey that inflation risks remained dominant and that consequently keeping policy unchanged at this meeting did not necessarily mark the end of the tightening cycle.,1997,1,44
408,"In any case, the real federal funds rate is now lower than prior to the easings, at the same time that the unemployment rate is lower and projected growth higher than it was prior to the easings.",2019,1,396
187,"Returning to monetary policy, we recognize that there has been a great deal of focus on today’s policy decision.",2012,2,182
866,"The July-August deficit in U. S. trade in goods and services was higher than its average in the second quarter, as further growth in imports exceeded the rise in exports.",2002,1,817
849,There is no evidence to date that a strong labor market is putting excessive cost-push pressure on price inflation.,2005,2,824
570,"in particular, core PCE price inflation had been quite stable on a twelve-month basis for some time.",2011,0,541
238,"Housing demand and consumer spending firmed toward the end of the year, but capital spending remained quite weak in an environment of substantial business uncertainty and pessimism.",2020,0,229
90,"As a policymaker, I can assure you that any model of inflation that did not take account of these effects, and how they might or might not affect ongoing rates of inflation, would have been of little practical use to the FOMC over the past few years.",2017,2,89
1076,"Weekly data for March, however, indicated that gasoline prices rose sharply.",2009,1,1016
20,"A major concern that I have about the bubble-popping strategy, however, is that attempts to bring down stock prices by a significant amount using monetary policy are likely to have highly deleterious and unwanted side effects on the broader economy.",1998,0,19
312,"In connection with the risks associated with an early start to policy normalization, many participants observed that a premature increase in rates might damp the apparent solid recovery in real activity and labor market conditions, undermining progress toward the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.",2011,2,297
988,"The staff still expected that the pace of economic activity through 2011 would be sufficient to reduce the existing margins of economic slack,",1997,2,931
138,"Besley, Meads and Surico's contribution is to ask whether certain characteristics of the policymakers matter for how they vote on the monetary policy committee.",2000,2,136
198,Confirming that variations in growth rates of liquidity (especially unusual changes in liquidity growth that could be called excessive) systematically lead to wide swings in real asset prices requires further theoretical investigation and more empirical support.,2019,2,196
913,"Thus, reducing vacancies from an extremely high level to a lower (but still strong) level has a relatively limited effect on hiring and on unemployment.",2003,2,886
714,"Such second-round effects are likely to be quite limited as long as the rise in the relative price of energy does not lead to a rise in long-run inflation expectations, as has largely been the case in the recent period (figure 1).",2005,1,693
114,"At the same time, the staff viewed the risks around its outlook for the unemployment rate as roughly balanced.",2018,2,111
818,Sub-par expansion over the next few quarters was expected to foster an appreciable further easing of pressures on resources and some moderation in core consumer price inflation.,2002,0,773
301,"Fortunately, as we make monetary policy we have the advantage of several forecasts.",2008,2,293
278,"We are hopeful that Europe will take additional measures and do all that’s necessary to stabilize the situation and to provide the basis for an ongoing stable structure that—in which banks and sovereigns are both stabilized, in which there’s a program for growth, and in which fiscal arrangements are clear—are made much clearer.",2020,2,272
489,"M2 growth dropped in the second quarter and remained modest in July, consistent with moderating growth of nominal income and rising opportunity cost.",2008,1,468
833,"Tax rebates, declining energy prices, and widespread discounting of retail prices were cited as positive factors in support of consumer spending on a wide range of goods and services.",2000,2,784
283,"However, waiting was an acceptable alternative given the favorable economic news and the persisting uncertainties surrounding the relationship of output to prices.",2008,2,271
200,So let me start with the question pertaining to exchange rates.,2019,2,195
269,"For a variety of reasons, some emerging-market economies have resisted upward pressures on their exchange rates, even if that resistance requires buying large quantities of dollars to keep their currencies from appreciating.",2000,0,264
764,The combination of a commitment to condition liftoff on the sustained achievement of our employment and inflation objectives with yield curve caps targeted at the same horizon has the potential to work well in many circumstances.,2005,2,742
223,"He also judged that the policy step would do little to improve near-term growth prospects, given the ongoing structural adjustments and external challenges faced by the U. S. economy.",2010,2,214
732,The 5.4% unemployment rate in 1996 was the lowest annual rate since 1988 and before that since 1973.,2005,2,710
337,"In its March forecast, the staff's projection for real GDP growth over the medium term was somewhat higher than the one presented in January, mostly reflecting an improved outlook for economic activity abroad, a lower foreign exchange value for the dollar, and a higher projected path of equity prices.",1999,2,322
240,"Housing starts and the demand for new homes had declined further, house prices in many parts of the country were falling faster than they had towards the end of 2007, and inventories of unsold homes remained quite elevated.",1996,0,231
211,"Despite the prevalence and importance of committees in modern central banking, the role of committees in the formulation of policy has not attracted nearly as much academic attention as has the research on monetary policy rules.3 The literature on monetary policy rules stretches back to at least Adam Smith and includes important contributions from David Ricardo, Knut Wicksell, and Milton Friedman.More recently, John Taylor has moved the research agenda forward with his eponymous rule, and a large number of academic papers have been written examining the effectiveness and robustness of policy rules.4 In contrast, as noted, study of the role of committees in making monetary policy has been fairly light, notwithstanding the insightful work of Alan Blinder and others.5 Committees and rules may appear to be in opposition as approaches to policymaking.",1999,2,208
320,"In contrast, businesses cut production and employment substantially in recent months--likely reflecting, in part, inventory overhangs that persisted into the early part of the year--and fixed investment continued to contract.",2018,0,305
483,"Looking ahead, the projected slowing in the growth of final sales, including the effects of weak export markets, likely would reinforce business efforts to bring the growth of their inventories into better alignment with that of their sales, and such a development should contribute to the projected slowing in overall economic activity in coming quarters.",2004,0,462
67,"Although the near-term economic outlook is weak, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, together with fiscal and monetary stimulus, will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth.",2018,0,67
87,"As a consequence of these higher real interest rates, the ratio of net worth to income for the average household is already lower than it was earlier this year.",2017,1,86
113,"At the same time, the staff viewed the risks around its outlook for the unemployment rate as roughly balanced.",2018,2,110
333,"In furtherance of these objectives, the Committee reaffirmed at its meeting in June the ranges it had established in February for growth of M2 and M3 of 1 to 5 percent and 2 to 6 percent respectively, measured from the fourth quarter of 1998 to the fourth quarter of 1999.",2017,2,318
524,"Just as in the earlier analysis of Ammer and Freeman, this analysis suggested that in all three countries the inflation targeting led to a drop in inflation and nominal interest rates.",2004,0,507
619,"Nonetheless, with fiscal policy assumed to be tighter next year than this year, the staff anticipated that real GDP growth would not materially exceed increases in potential output in 2013.",1996,2,587
62,"Although some members noted that a case could be made that the risks to inflation were now somewhat skewed to the upside and those to sustainable economic growth perhaps to the downside, the most likely outcome remained one of stable prices and sustainable growth, and the Committee agreed that it should retain a balanced assessment of risks conditional on appropriate policy.",2015,2,62
131,"If we—if we analyze inflation data and conclude that, clearly, transitory influences are holding down inflation, I do not want to say that we would respond to that.",2021,2,126
19,A main reason I expect this outcome is simply the fact that the very low inflation readings during last spring's deep economic contraction will drop from the usual calculation of 12-month price changes.,1998,0,18
273,"For example, Ang, Piazzesi, and Wei (2003) have used modern financial theory to construct a model of the Treasury yield curve that closely links the behavior of real GDP and a few key interest rates.",2004,2,268
247,Financial conditions continue to pose a downside risk to the outlook for growth.,2006,0,242
1017,"With the economy at full employment and inflation far above target, we should signal that we are moving back to neutral at a fast pace based on the performance of the economy, and a 50-basis point hike would help do that.",2022,1,985
114,"I don’t really think asset prices themselves represent a significant threat to financial stability, and that’s because households are in good shape financially than they have been.",2013,0,109
64,"Although the aggregate balance sheet for the household sector was strong and the unemployment rate was low, consumer sentiment had deteriorated, and households were reportedly becoming more cautious in their expenditure decisions in light of uncertainty about the economic outlook and the reduction in purchasing power induced by price rises, particularly increases in the prices of essentials such as food, housing, and transportation.",2015,1,64
205,"So that’s in the low 20s, and that’s post the May employment report.",2013,2,200
31,"Accordingly, considerable caution needed to be exercised in assessing the outlook for productivity and in relying on projections of the economy and prices, which necessarily embodied judgments about this outlook, in making monetary policy.",2022,2,31
671,"Participants continued to expect that, as the effects of transitory factors waned and labor market conditions strengthened further, inflation would stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term.",1998,2,636
1103,"With energy price increases expected to slow next year, total PCE inflation was seen as likely to fall back in line with core inflation by the end of 2011, as in previous projections.",2020,2,1043
571,"Moreover, not all measures of core inflation had accelerated",2011,2,541
173,"Crude oil prices, though volatile, had not risen appreciably in recent months on balance, and a flattening in energy prices was beginning to damp headline inflation.",2016,2,167
335,How would that development affect the economy and monetary policy?,2007,2,326
653,"Price and capital controls, which might have been feasible a half century ago, would be very difficult to implement in today's more technologically advanced environment.",2002,2,632
513,"It is now generally recognized that price stability is a prerequisite for the efficient allocation of resources in our economy and, indeed, for fulfilling our ultimate mandate to promote maximum sustainable employment over time.",1999,1,496
618,"On average, over the period from November 2020 to January 2021, the fraction of prime-age women with children aged 6 to 17 who were out of the labor force for caregiving had increased by 2.4 percentage points from a year earlier, while for men the fraction had increased by about 0.6 percentage point.5 If not soon reversed, the decline in the participation rate for prime‑age women could have scarring effects, with longer-term implications for household incomes and potential growth.6 Roughly 90 percent of the shortfall in private payroll employment relative to the pre-COVID level is concentrated in service-providing industries, with half of these service job losses in leisure and hospitality.",2017,0,598
444,"In terms of missing on inflation, policymakers' projections looked very much like most of the public's.",2021,2,431
120,"I mean, we—the—again, the relationship between slack in the economy and inflation is weak, has been weak.",2015,2,115
758,"The bottom line is that past performance, in several important dimensions, has been extraordinary and that prospects look favorable for continued expansion and relatively low inflation.",2021,0,736
809,"Staff Economic Outlook In the economic forecast prepared for the January FOMC meeting, the staff's projection for the growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) in the near term was revised down a bit.",2012,0,764
1012,"The vote encompassed approval of the paragraph below for inclusion in the press statement to be released shortly after the meeting: ""The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters are roughly equal.",2012,2,954
587,"My general point is that inflation is much too high, and the outlook for inflation remains significantly uncertain.",2021,1,569
679,"Participants generally agreed that the drag on U. S. economic activity from the appreciation of the dollar since the summer of 2014 and the slowdown in foreign economic growth, particularly in emerging market economies, was likely to continue to depress U. S. net exports for some time.",2008,0,644
1016,"With the economic outlook held constant, changes in the net demand for long-term securities have their largest effect on the term premium.",2022,2,984
77,An upside risk was that inflation could increase more than expected in an economy that was projected to move further above its potential.,2002,1,77
805,"The net effect could be steady, rising, or falling inflation--depending on whether productivity continues to accelerate and on how low the unemployment rate is driven in the process.",2005,2,782
575,"Moreover, the expected strength in aggregate demand would curb the extent of disinflation over time.",2002,2,545
207,"Critical though this issue is, it does not by itself capture the importance of productivity.",2020,2,204
135,"Because they cannot rule out the chance that some asset prices might correct more than anticipated, policymakers must consider how the economy might withstand such a correction.",2007,2,133
54,"Although the rate of pass-through from the higher prices of energy and other commodities to core consumer price inflation appears to have remained relatively low, the cumulative increases in energy and commodity prices have been large enough that they could account for some of the recent pickup in core inflation.",2004,1,53
841,"The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run. """,2013,0,792
104,"At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: ""The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output.",1999,1,101
31,"About the same time, Board staff developed the so-called P* (P-star) model, based on M2, which used the quantity theory of money and estimates of long-run potential output and velocity (the ratio of nominal income to money) to predict long-run inflation trends.",2004,2,30
979,What about the effects of a productivity shock on inflation?,2022,2,950
952,"The real federal funds rate probably was not greatly out of line with its appropriate level, and the rise in longer-term interest rates and the exchange rate meant that financial conditions were now exerting more restraint than earlier this year.",2011,1,900
468,"In this environment, America's prospects for economic growth will greatly depend on our capacity to develop and to apply new technology--a quest that inevitably will entail some risk-taking.",2019,2,453
439,"Inflation compensation for 2007 declined modestly, perhaps reflecting the further drop in spot energy prices, but was largely unchanged at longer maturities.",2004,2,421
921,"The large current account deficit was seen as a factor pointing to potential depreciation of the dollar over time, with adverse repercussions on domestic inflation albeit favorable effects on exports.",2010,1,871
658,Productivity and TechnologyLet me now turn from the overall economic outlook to productivity and technology developments.,2005,2,637
802,"The logic goes as follows: Easier monetary policy, for example, raises stock prices.",2005,2,779
436,"In particular, we may need additional public communications about the conditions that constitute substantial further progress since December toward our broad and inclusive definition of maximum employment.",2005,0,423
687,"Participants noted that the improved performance of investment suggested that the expansion was becoming more balanced, with strengthening business spending potentially offsetting some moderation in the growth of household spending from the elevated rates of recent years.",2011,2,652
527,"Labor force participation isn't growing as much as one would expect with the hot job market, but apparently it's growing enough to keep the job creation machine humming.",1998,2,510
595,"Nonetheless, employment is still 9.5 million below its pre-pandemic level for the economy as a whole.",1999,0,576
585,Most participants continued to see the risks to inflation as balanced.,2007,2,555
743,The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate from the Congress to pursue policies that aim to achieve and sustain maximum employment and price stability.,2007,1,721
561,Monetary policy has an ambiguous effect on trade imbalances.,1997,2,543
272,"and that given the downside risks to economic growth, an early exit could unnecessarily damp the ongoing economic recovery.",2008,0,263
280,"However, this shortfall partly reflected the earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports, and some participants pointed out that, by some measures, the most recent monthly inflation readings had firmed a bit.",1998,0,269
273,"that longer-term inflation expectations were likely to remain anchored, partly because modest changes in labor costs would constrain inflation trends",2008,2,263
921,"To be sure, the prices of assets and the level of debt seem to reflect expectations of a benign economic environment--one in which policy will tighten only gradually, the economy will continue to strengthen and inflation will remain low, and the demand for houses and equities will remain solid.",2021,0,893
742,Reserve market conditions associated with this directive had been expected to be consistent with some moderation in the growth of M2 and M3 over coming months.,2012,2,702
614,"Of course, the basic problem in tackling the inflation of the 1970s is that we have one observation and many competing theories.",2002,1,594
495,"Inflation continued to climb in June, reaching 9.1 percent as measured by the consumer price index.",2005,1,479
508,"It is an honor to be here with Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen, who pioneered the original Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy in 2012.",2020,2,491
80,Any such rise in inflation expectations and associated upward pressure on inflation itself would likely prove costly to reverse.,2015,1,80
28,A soft labor market will keep a lid on the growth in the cost of employing workers.,2005,2,27
771,The dominant force of late appears to have been a significant increase in the structural rate of productivity growth.,2004,0,749
36,"After deteriorating further early in the period, foreign equity prices bounced back and credit spreads on emerging market bonds narrowed, in both cases returning to December levels in most countries.",2015,2,36
33,"Accordingly, in the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful consideration to economic, financial, and monetary developments, the Committee decided that a slightly higher or a slightly lower federal funds rate might be acceptable during the intermeeting period.",2022,2,33
321,also how far it will fall and if it will fall soon enough to avoid spurring a concerning rise in longer-term inflation expectations.,1998,1,312
164,overall consumer prices had been pushed up recently by sharp rises in energy prices.,2000,1,160
79,"But also we want to see inflation move up back to our 2 percent objective over the medium term, and so seeing above-trend growth and continuing tightness—greater tightness in labor and product markets—I think that will help us achieve our objective as well with respect to inflation.",2018,0,76
85,"As a result, growth of spending on consumer durables and houses was expected to slow",2015,1,83
657,Productivity accelerated.,2005,0,636
239,"Eventually, financial markets may develop the instruments and associated analytical techniques for unearthing these implicit changes in the price level with some precision.",1996,2,235
368,"In the context of this discussion, many participants commented that their view of potential output growth was somewhat more optimistic than that of the staff.",1996,1,353
453,"Investor perceptions of a somewhat less accommodative tone of Federal Reserve communications, as well as the softer-than-expected reading for the April CPI, likely contributed to the decline in inflation compensation.",2020,0,432
996,"While moderating the pace of purchases and the eventual increase in the federal funds rate may well affect capital flows, interest rates and asset prices in EMEs, the overall macroeconomic effects need not be disruptive.",2019,1,967
249,The economy is continuing to make progress toward the FOMC’s objective of maximum sustainable employment.,2012,1,244
535,"Longer-term inflation expectations have moved much less than actual inflation or near-term expectations, suggesting that households, businesses, and market participants also believe that current high inflation readings are likely to prove transitory and that, in any case, the Fed will keep inflation close to our 2 percent objective over time.12 5.",2005,1,517
690,Participants observed that both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remained near 2 percent on a 12-month basis.,1997,2,655
663,"Progress at Home and Abroad Over the past several quarters, we have seen improvement in inflation and activity both at home and abroad following a period when the drag on domestic activity from abroad was considerable.",2001,2,642
139,"Committee Policy Action In their discussion of monetary policy for this meeting, members agreed that the coronavirus outbreak was causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world.",2007,0,136
297,"We, frankly, didn’t even get inflation back up to target—without seeing wages getting out of touch with—with where they should be, so that’s the—that’s the biggest thing we can do.",2020,0,290
120,"Broad U. S. stock price indexes declined, on net, over the intermeeting period, apparently in response to the downbeat economic data.",2011,0,117
271,"For asset purchases, the Committee declared that tapering would wait ""until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.",2000,0,266
629,"On balance, core consumer price inflation was projected to remain subdued and quite possibly edge lower.",2005,0,596
319,"Global growth estimates continue to be marked down, and global disinflationary pressures cloud the outlook for U.S. inflation.",1998,0,311
1016,"The weakness in labor market conditions remained an important concern to meeting participants, with unemployment expected to remain elevated for some time.",2001,0,958
597,"Nearly all measures of total and core prices had decelerated over the past year, and in the context of forecasts implying a continued sizable gap between actual and potential output, the risk that inflationary pressures would intensify significantly over coming quarters appeared to be quite limited",2006,0,567
8,"A European Central Bank analysis concluded that the release of capital buffers increased headroom for banks relative to not only their regulatory thresholds, but also their internal risk controls, and enabled banks to continue providing credit to households and businesses.6 And of course, monetary policy is focused on restoring price stability in a high-inflation environment.",1999,1,8
798,"The implications of the spread of e-money for monetary policy would arise from the substitution of e-money for both currency and deposits, shrinking the size of the monetary base.",2004,0,775
348,"In particular, investors noted that the Committee attributed some of the recent increase in inflation to transitory factors, retained its earlier balance of risks assessment, and reiterated its belief that policy accommodation could be removed at a pace that would likely be measured.",2003,1,333
309,"What they have had is low unemployment, lots of social problems.",2017,2,302
200,"Financial conditions affecting emerging market economies continued to improve for a time after the Committee eased monetary policy at its November 17 meeting, but that trend was subsequently reversed after Brazil's legislature decided to reject a key fiscal reform measure.",2014,0,191
265,"However, participants generally saw these downward pressures on inflation starting to abate next year, with widespread distribution of vaccines reducing social-distancing concerns and spurring economic activity.",2000,1,256
327,"In discussing the effect of labor market conditions on inflation, a number of participants expressed skepticism about recent studies suggesting that long-term unemployment provides less downward pressure on wage and price inflation than short-term unemployment does.",2001,2,312
809,"The prices of their exports are lower than they would be if market forces were given greater scope in foreign exchange markets, and they are supplying more goods and services to the rest of the world than they themselves are demanding.",2022,0,786
214,Foreign economic growth declined in the second quarter.,2016,2,205
132,If you lay the crosscurrents on top of that—concerns about global growth and trade developments—you have the full picture.,2021,2,127
147,"Consistent with the view that recent lower inflation readings could be temporary, a number of participants mentioned the trimmed mean measure of PCE price inflation, produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, which removes the influence of unusually large changes in the prices of individual items in either direction; these participants observed that the trimmed mean measure had been stable at or close to 2 percent over recent months.",1996,2,144
564,"More broadly, post-crisis monetary policy supported asset values, reduced interest payments, and increased both employment and income.",1997,0,546
1087,"While liquid deposits continued to grow slowly, heightened demand for safety and liquidity appeared to boost holdings of retail money market mutual funds.",2002,1,1027
213,"For the twelve months ended in September, prices of consumer items other than food and energy increased by a considerably smaller amount than in the year- earlier period.",2007,2,204
411,"In contrast, blue-collar employment fell sharply in most of the other countries.",2007,0,399
366,"In the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful consider- ation to economic, financial, and monetary developments, a somewhat higher federal funds rate would or a slightly lower federal funds rate might be acceptable in the intermeeting period.",1996,2,351
735,"Recent data, supported by anecdotal reports from several though not all parts of the country, suggested that residential building activity was slowing somewhat, apparently in lagged response to earlier increases in mortgage interest rates.",2007,1,696
26,A second question is whether moving in this direction would matter much for the conduct of monetary policy in the United States.,2005,2,25
559,"Moreover, anecdotal evidence suggested that most firms had little ability to raise their prices in the current economic environment.",2003,1,530
502,"Many of them expected that inflation was likely to rise gradually over the medium term, as resource slack diminished and inflation expectations remained stable.",2002,2,481
173,"Moreover, in light of the anticipated modest pace of economic recovery, the Committee expects that over coming quarters the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward its mandate-consistent levels.",2014,0,168
247,"However, core inflation had been subdued in recent months and longer-run inflation expectations remained contained.",1998,0,238
189,"Employment had risen a little,",2005,0,181
382,"In the staff forecast prepared for this meeting, the economy was seen as likely to expand at a pace a little above that of its longer-run potential over this year and next, while hiring was expected to firm some more, resulting in a further decrease in the unemployment rate.",1996,1,367
760,"Several participants discussed the possible complications that additional purchases could cause for the eventual withdrawal of policy accommodation, a few mentioned the prospect of inflationary risks, and some noted that further asset purchases could foster market behavior that could undermine financial stability.",2010,1,719
394,"In their discussion of inflation developments, participants noted that readings on overall and core PCE inflation, measured on a 12-month change basis, had continued to run below the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective.",2021,0,378
518,It will likely take even longer than that for the unemployment rate to return to a level consistent with our maximum-employment mandate.,2000,0,501
51,"And, and some of the answer to that may be price.",2015,2,50
7,"A couple of participants thought it premature to focus on this latter eventuality, observing that the purchase program had been effective and that more time was needed to assess the outlook for the labor market and inflation; moreover, international comparisons suggested that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet retained ample capacity relative to the scale of the U. S. economy.",2019,2,7
22,"A more-timely data source, average hourly earnings, decelerated slightly to a 4.4 percent annual rate over the third quarter, down from 4.6 percent annual growth in the second quarter.",2004,2,21
958,"The recent rebound in oil prices contributed to a strong appreciation of the Canadian dollar, the Brazilian real, and the Mexican peso.",2019,1,905
156,"Consumer price inflation, as measured by the 12-month percentage change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), was below 2 percent in July.",2012,0,153
972,"We said that we expect to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes—as well as our maximum-employment mandate—are achieved, and also that we expect it will be appropriate to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment, until inflation has risen to 2 percent, and until inflation is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.",2003,0,943
470,Increased rates and a smaller balance sheet raise the cost of borrowing and thus reduce household and business demand.,2019,2,455
683,"Participants judged that an appropriate firming of the stance of monetary policy, along with an eventual waning of supply–demand imbalances, would help to keep longer-term inflation expectations anchored and bring inflation down over time to levels consistent with the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal.",2011,1,648
258,"However, investor demand for high-quality commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) reportedly was robust, although issuance of CMBS remained muted.",2014,1,249