Daily Papers

The output of Large Language Models (LLMs) are a function of the internal model's parameters and the input provided into the context window. The hypothesis presented here is that under a greedy sampling strategy the variance in the LLM's output is a function of the conceptual certainty embedded in the model's parametric knowledge, as well as the lexical variance in the input. Finetuning the model results in reducing the sensitivity of the model output to the lexical input variations. This is then applied to a classification problem and a probabilistic method is proposed for estimating the certainties of the predicted classes.

Knowledge Distillation (KD) consists of transferring “knowledge” from one machine learning model (the teacher) to another (the student). Commonly, the teacher is a high-capacity model with formidable performance, while the student is more compact. By transferring knowledge, one hopes to benefit from the student’s compactness, without sacrificing too much performance. We study KD from a new perspective: rather than compressing models, we train students parameterized identically to their teachers. Surprisingly, these Born-Again Networks (BANs), outperform their teachers significantly, both on computer vision and language modeling tasks. Our experiments with BANs based on DenseNets demonstrate state-of-the-art performance on the CIFAR-10 (3.5%) and CIFAR-100 (15.5%) datasets, by validation error. Additional experiments explore two distillation objectives: (i) Confidence-Weighted by Teacher Max (CWTM) and (ii) Dark Knowledge with Permuted Predictions (DKPP). Both methods elucidate the essential components of KD, demonstrating the effect of the teacher outputs on both predicted and non-predicted classes.

Adapters and Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) are parameter-efficient fine-tuning techniques designed to make the training of language models more efficient. Previous results demonstrated that these methods can even improve performance on some classification tasks. This paper complements the existing research by investigating how these techniques influence the classification performance and computation costs compared to full fine-tuning when applied to multilingual text classification tasks (genre, framing, and persuasion techniques detection; with different input lengths, number of predicted classes and classification difficulty), some of which have limited training data. In addition, we conduct in-depth analyses of their efficacy across different training scenarios (training on the original multilingual data; on the translations into English; and on a subset of English-only data) and different languages. Our findings provide valuable insights into the applicability of the parameter-efficient fine-tuning techniques, particularly to complex multilingual and multilabel classification tasks.

The lack of interpretability of the Vision Transformer may hinder its use in critical real-world applications despite its effectiveness. To overcome this issue, we propose a post-hoc interpretability method called VISION DIFFMASK, which uses the activations of the model's hidden layers to predict the relevant parts of the input that contribute to its final predictions. Our approach uses a gating mechanism to identify the minimal subset of the original input that preserves the predicted distribution over classes. We demonstrate the faithfulness of our method, by introducing a faithfulness task, and comparing it to other state-of-the-art attribution methods on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet-1K, achieving compelling results. To aid reproducibility and further extension of our work, we open source our implementation: https://github.com/AngelosNal/Vision-DiffMask

Prediction sets capture uncertainty by predicting sets of labels rather than individual labels, enabling downstream decisions to conservatively account for all plausible outcomes. Conformal inference algorithms construct prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with high probability. These guarantees fail to hold in the face of distribution shift, which is precisely when reliable uncertainty quantification can be most useful. We propose a novel algorithm for constructing prediction sets with PAC guarantees in the label shift setting. This method estimates the predicted probabilities of the classes in a target domain, as well as the confusion matrix, then propagates uncertainty in these estimates through a Gaussian elimination algorithm to compute confidence intervals for importance weights. Finally, it uses these intervals to construct prediction sets. We evaluate our approach on five datasets: the CIFAR-10, ChestX-Ray and Entity-13 image datasets, the tabular CDC Heart dataset, and the AGNews text dataset. Our algorithm satisfies the PAC guarantee while producing smaller, more informative, prediction sets compared to several baselines.

We tackle the problem of novel class discovery, which aims to learn novel classes without supervision based on labeled data from known classes. A key challenge lies in transferring the knowledge in the known-class data to the learning of novel classes. Previous methods mainly focus on building a shared representation space for knowledge transfer and often ignore modeling class relations. To address this, we introduce a class relation representation for the novel classes based on the predicted class distribution of a model trained on known classes. Empirically, we find that such class relation becomes less informative during typical discovery training. To prevent such information loss, we propose a novel knowledge distillation framework, which utilizes our class-relation representation to regularize the learning of novel classes. In addition, to enable a flexible knowledge distillation scheme for each data point in novel classes, we develop a learnable weighting function for the regularization, which adaptively promotes knowledge transfer based on the semantic similarity between the novel and known classes. To validate the effectiveness and generalization of our method, we conduct extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks, including CIFAR100, Stanford Cars, CUB, and FGVC-Aircraft datasets. Our results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the previous state-of-the-art methods by a significant margin on almost all benchmarks. Code is available at https://github.com/kleinzcy/Cr-KD-NCD{here}.

This paper explores a hierarchical prompting mechanism for the hierarchical image classification (HIC) task. Different from prior HIC methods, our hierarchical prompting is the first to explicitly inject ancestor-class information as a tokenized hint that benefits the descendant-class discrimination. We think it well imitates human visual recognition, i.e., humans may use the ancestor class as a prompt to draw focus on the subtle differences among descendant classes. We model this prompting mechanism into a Transformer with Hierarchical Prompting (TransHP). TransHP consists of three steps: 1) learning a set of prompt tokens to represent the coarse (ancestor) classes, 2) on-the-fly predicting the coarse class of the input image at an intermediate block, and 3) injecting the prompt token of the predicted coarse class into the intermediate feature. Though the parameters of TransHP maintain the same for all input images, the injected coarse-class prompt conditions (modifies) the subsequent feature extraction and encourages a dynamic focus on relatively subtle differences among the descendant classes. Extensive experiments show that TransHP improves image classification on accuracy (e.g., improving ViT-B/16 by +2.83% ImageNet classification accuracy), training data efficiency (e.g., +12.69% improvement under 10% ImageNet training data), and model explainability. Moreover, TransHP also performs favorably against prior HIC methods, showing that TransHP well exploits the hierarchical information. The code is available at: https://github.com/WangWenhao0716/TransHP.

How do humans learn language, and can the first language be learned at all? These fundamental questions are still hotly debated. In contemporary linguistics, there are two major schools of thought that give completely opposite answers. According to Chomsky's theory of universal grammar, language cannot be learned because children are not exposed to sufficient data in their linguistic environment. In contrast, usage-based models of language assume a profound relationship between language structure and language use. In particular, contextual mental processing and mental representations are assumed to have the cognitive capacity to capture the complexity of actual language use at all levels. The prime example is syntax, i.e., the rules by which words are assembled into larger units such as sentences. Typically, syntactic rules are expressed as sequences of word classes. However, it remains unclear whether word classes are innate, as implied by universal grammar, or whether they emerge during language acquisition, as suggested by usage-based approaches. Here, we address this issue from a machine learning and natural language processing perspective. In particular, we trained an artificial deep neural network on predicting the next word, provided sequences of consecutive words as input. Subsequently, we analyzed the emerging activation patterns in the hidden layers of the neural network. Strikingly, we find that the internal representations of nine-word input sequences cluster according to the word class of the tenth word to be predicted as output, even though the neural network did not receive any explicit information about syntactic rules or word classes during training. This surprising result suggests, that also in the human brain, abstract representational categories such as word classes may naturally emerge as a consequence of predictive coding and processing during language acquisition.

Machine learning especially deep neural networks have achieved great success but many of them often rely on a number of labeled samples for supervision. As sufficient labeled training data are not always ready due to e.g., continuously emerging prediction targets and costly sample annotation in real world applications, machine learning with sample shortage is now being widely investigated. Among all these studies, many prefer to utilize auxiliary information including those in the form of Knowledge Graph (KG) to reduce the reliance on labeled samples. In this survey, we have comprehensively reviewed over 90 papers about KG-aware research for two major sample shortage settings -- zero-shot learning (ZSL) where some classes to be predicted have no labeled samples, and few-shot learning (FSL) where some classes to be predicted have only a small number of labeled samples that are available. We first introduce KGs used in ZSL and FSL as well as their construction methods, and then systematically categorize and summarize KG-aware ZSL and FSL methods, dividing them into different paradigms such as the mapping-based, the data augmentation, the propagation-based and the optimization-based. We next present different applications, including not only KG augmented prediction tasks such as image classification, question answering, text classification and knowledge extraction, but also KG completion tasks, and some typical evaluation resources for each task. We eventually discuss some challenges and open problems from different perspectives.

Traditional image classification requires a predefined list of semantic categories. In contrast, Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) can sidestep this requirement by classifying images directly using natural language (e.g., answering the prompt "What is the main object in the image?"). Despite this remarkable capability, most existing studies on LMM classification performance are surprisingly limited in scope, often assuming a closed-world setting with a predefined set of categories. In this work, we address this gap by thoroughly evaluating LMM classification performance in a truly open-world setting. We first formalize the task and introduce an evaluation protocol, defining various metrics to assess the alignment between predicted and ground truth classes. We then evaluate 13 models across 10 benchmarks, encompassing prototypical, non-prototypical, fine-grained, and very fine-grained classes, demonstrating the challenges LMMs face in this task. Further analyses based on the proposed metrics reveal the types of errors LMMs make, highlighting challenges related to granularity and fine-grained capabilities, showing how tailored prompting and reasoning can alleviate them.

The problem of Novel Class Discovery (NCD) consists in extracting knowledge from a labeled set of known classes to accurately partition an unlabeled set of novel classes. While NCD has recently received a lot of attention from the community, it is often solved on computer vision problems and under unrealistic conditions. In particular, the number of novel classes is usually assumed to be known in advance, and their labels are sometimes used to tune hyperparameters. Methods that rely on these assumptions are not applicable in real-world scenarios. In this work, we focus on solving NCD in tabular data when no prior knowledge of the novel classes is available. To this end, we propose to tune the hyperparameters of NCD methods by adapting the k-fold cross-validation process and hiding some of the known classes in each fold. Since we have found that methods with too many hyperparameters are likely to overfit these hidden classes, we define a simple deep NCD model. This method is composed of only the essential elements necessary for the NCD problem and performs impressively well under realistic conditions. Furthermore, we find that the latent space of this method can be used to reliably estimate the number of novel classes. Additionally, we adapt two unsupervised clustering algorithms (k-means and Spectral Clustering) to leverage the knowledge of the known classes. Extensive experiments are conducted on 7 tabular datasets and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method and hyperparameter tuning process, and show that the NCD problem can be solved without relying on knowledge from the novel classes.

Novel Class Discovery (NCD) is a growing field where we are given during training a labeled set of known classes and an unlabeled set of different classes that must be discovered. In recent years, many methods have been proposed to address this problem, and the field has begun to mature. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive survey of the state-of-the-art NCD methods. We start by formally defining the NCD problem and introducing important notions. We then give an overview of the different families of approaches, organized by the way they transfer knowledge from the labeled set to the unlabeled set. We find that they either learn in two stages, by first extracting knowledge from the labeled data only and then applying it to the unlabeled data, or in one stage by conjointly learning on both sets. For each family, we describe their general principle and detail a few representative methods. Then, we briefly introduce some new related tasks inspired by the increasing number of NCD works. We also present some common tools and techniques used in NCD, such as pseudo labeling, self-supervised learning and contrastive learning. Finally, to help readers unfamiliar with the NCD problem differentiate it from other closely related domains, we summarize some of the closest areas of research and discuss their main differences.

Machine learning models -- including prominent zero-shot models -- are often trained on datasets whose labels are only a small proportion of a larger label space. Such spaces are commonly equipped with a metric that relates the labels via distances between them. We propose a simple approach to exploit this information to adapt the trained model to reliably predict new classes -- or, in the case of zero-shot prediction, to improve its performance -- without any additional training. Our technique is a drop-in replacement of the standard prediction rule, swapping argmax with the Fr\'echet mean. We provide a comprehensive theoretical analysis for this approach, studying (i) learning-theoretic results trading off label space diameter, sample complexity, and model dimension, (ii) characterizations of the full range of scenarios in which it is possible to predict any unobserved class, and (iii) an optimal active learning-like next class selection procedure to obtain optimal training classes for when it is not possible to predict the entire range of unobserved classes. Empirically, using easily-available external metrics, our proposed approach, Loki, gains up to 29.7% relative improvement over SimCLR on ImageNet and scales to hundreds of thousands of classes. When no such metric is available, Loki can use self-derived metrics from class embeddings and obtains a 10.5% improvement on pretrained zero-shot models such as CLIP.

Class-incremental learning (CIL) is a particularly challenging variant of continual learning, where the goal is to learn to discriminate between all classes presented in an incremental fashion. Existing approaches often suffer from excessive forgetting and imbalance of the scores assigned to classes that have not been seen together during training. In this study, we introduce a novel approach, Prediction Error-based Classification (PEC), which differs from traditional discriminative and generative classification paradigms. PEC computes a class score by measuring the prediction error of a model trained to replicate the outputs of a frozen random neural network on data from that class. The method can be interpreted as approximating a classification rule based on Gaussian Process posterior variance. PEC offers several practical advantages, including sample efficiency, ease of tuning, and effectiveness even when data are presented one class at a time. Our empirical results show that PEC performs strongly in single-pass-through-data CIL, outperforming other rehearsal-free baselines in all cases and rehearsal-based methods with moderate replay buffer size in most cases across multiple benchmarks.

We develop a rigorous mathematical analysis of zero-shot learning with attributes. In this setting, the goal is to label novel classes with no training data, only detectors for attributes and a description of how those attributes are correlated with the target classes, called the class-attribute matrix. We develop the first non-trivial lower bound on the worst-case error of the best map from attributes to classes for this setting, even with perfect attribute detectors. The lower bound characterizes the theoretical intrinsic difficulty of the zero-shot problem based on the available information -- the class-attribute matrix -- and the bound is practically computable from it. Our lower bound is tight, as we show that we can always find a randomized map from attributes to classes whose expected error is upper bounded by the value of the lower bound. We show that our analysis can be predictive of how standard zero-shot methods behave in practice, including which classes will likely be confused with others.

Real-world scenarios are usually accompanied by continuously appearing classes with scare labeled samples, which require the machine learning model to incrementally learn new classes and maintain the knowledge of base classes. In this Few-Shot Class-Incremental Learning (FSCIL) scenario, existing methods either introduce extra learnable components or rely on a frozen feature extractor to mitigate catastrophic forgetting and overfitting problems. However, we find a tendency for existing methods to misclassify the samples of new classes into base classes, which leads to the poor performance of new classes. In other words, the strong discriminability of base classes distracts the classification of new classes. To figure out this intriguing phenomenon, we observe that although the feature extractor is only trained on base classes, it can surprisingly represent the semantic similarity between the base and unseen new classes. Building upon these analyses, we propose a simple yet effective Training-frEE calibratioN (TEEN) strategy to enhance the discriminability of new classes by fusing the new prototypes (i.e., mean features of a class) with weighted base prototypes. In addition to standard benchmarks in FSCIL, TEEN demonstrates remarkable performance and consistent improvements over baseline methods in the few-shot learning scenario. Code is available at: https://github.com/wangkiw/TEEN

In Novel Class Discovery (NCD), the goal is to find new classes in an unlabeled set given a labeled set of known but different classes. While NCD has recently gained attention from the community, no framework has yet been proposed for heterogeneous tabular data, despite being a very common representation of data. In this paper, we propose TabularNCD, a new method for discovering novel classes in tabular data. We show a way to extract knowledge from already known classes to guide the discovery process of novel classes in the context of tabular data which contains heterogeneous variables. A part of this process is done by a new method for defining pseudo labels, and we follow recent findings in Multi-Task Learning to optimize a joint objective function. Our method demonstrates that NCD is not only applicable to images but also to heterogeneous tabular data. Extensive experiments are conducted to evaluate our method and demonstrate its effectiveness against 3 competitors on 7 diverse public classification datasets.

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

In Novel Class Discovery (NCD), the goal is to find new classes in an unlabeled set given a labeled set of known but different classes. While NCD has recently gained attention from the community, no framework has yet been proposed for heterogeneous tabular data, despite being a very common representation of data. In this paper, we propose TabularNCD, a new method for discovering novel classes in tabular data. We show a way to extract knowledge from already known classes to guide the discovery process of novel classes in the context of tabular data which contains heterogeneous variables. A part of this process is done by a new method for defining pseudo labels, and we follow recent findings in Multi-Task Learning to optimize a joint objective function. Our method demonstrates that NCD is not only applicable to images but also to heterogeneous tabular data.

Machine learning models, such as neural networks, decision trees, random forests, and gradient boosting machines, accept a feature vector, and provide a prediction. These models learn in a supervised fashion where we provide feature vectors mapped to the expected output. It is common practice to engineer new features from the provided feature set. Such engineered features will either augment or replace portions of the existing feature vector. These engineered features are essentially calculated fields based on the values of the other features. Engineering such features is primarily a manual, time-consuming task. Additionally, each type of model will respond differently to different kinds of engineered features. This paper reports empirical research to demonstrate what kinds of engineered features are best suited to various machine learning model types. We provide this recommendation by generating several datasets that we designed to benefit from a particular type of engineered feature. The experiment demonstrates to what degree the machine learning model can synthesize the needed feature on its own. If a model can synthesize a planned feature, it is not necessary to provide that feature. The research demonstrated that the studied models do indeed perform differently with various types of engineered features.

Generalized Category Discovery (GCD) aims to discover novel categories in unlabelled datasets using knowledge learned from labelled samples. Previous studies argued that parametric classifiers are prone to overfitting to seen categories, and endorsed using a non-parametric classifier formed with semi-supervised k-means. However, in this study, we investigate the failure of parametric classifiers, verify the effectiveness of previous design choices when high-quality supervision is available, and identify unreliable pseudo-labels as a key problem. We demonstrate that two prediction biases exist: the classifier tends to predict seen classes more often, and produces an imbalanced distribution across seen and novel categories. Based on these findings, we propose a simple yet effective parametric classification method that benefits from entropy regularisation, achieves state-of-the-art performance on multiple GCD benchmarks and shows strong robustness to unknown class numbers. We hope the investigation and proposed simple framework can serve as a strong baseline to facilitate future studies in this field. Our code is available at: https://github.com/CVMI-Lab/SimGCD.

In Online Continual Learning (OCL) a learning system receives a stream of data and sequentially performs prediction and training steps. Important challenges in OCL are concerned with automatic adaptation to the particular non-stationary structure of the data, and with quantification of predictive uncertainty. Motivated by these challenges we introduce a probabilistic Bayesian online learning model by using a (possibly pretrained) neural representation and a state space model over the linear predictor weights. Non-stationarity over the linear predictor weights is modelled using a parameter drift transition density, parametrized by a coefficient that quantifies forgetting. Inference in the model is implemented with efficient Kalman filter recursions which track the posterior distribution over the linear weights, while online SGD updates over the transition dynamics coefficient allows to adapt to the non-stationarity seen in data. While the framework is developed assuming a linear Gaussian model, we also extend it to deal with classification problems and for fine-tuning the deep learning representation. In a set of experiments in multi-class classification using data sets such as CIFAR-100 and CLOC we demonstrate the predictive ability of the model and its flexibility to capture non-stationarity.

This paper presents a computationally efficient variant of gradient boosting for multi-class classification and multi-output regression tasks. Standard gradient boosting uses a 1-vs-all strategy for classifications tasks with more than two classes. This strategy translates in that one tree per class and iteration has to be trained. In this work, we propose the use of multi-output regressors as base models to handle the multi-class problem as a single task. In addition, the proposed modification allows the model to learn multi-output regression problems. An extensive comparison with other multi-ouptut based gradient boosting methods is carried out in terms of generalization and computational efficiency. The proposed method showed the best trade-off between generalization ability and training and predictions speeds.

In this paper, we consider a real-world scenario where a model that is trained on pre-defined classes continually encounters unlabeled data that contains both known and novel classes. The goal is to continually discover novel classes while maintaining the performance in known classes. We name the setting Continual Generalized Category Discovery (C-GCD). Existing methods for novel class discovery cannot directly handle the C-GCD setting due to some unrealistic assumptions, such as the unlabeled data only containing novel classes. Furthermore, they fail to discover novel classes in a continual fashion. In this work, we lift all these assumptions and propose an approach, called MetaGCD, to learn how to incrementally discover with less forgetting. Our proposed method uses a meta-learning framework and leverages the offline labeled data to simulate the testing incremental learning process. A meta-objective is defined to revolve around two conflicting learning objectives to achieve novel class discovery without forgetting. Furthermore, a soft neighborhood-based contrastive network is proposed to discriminate uncorrelated images while attracting correlated images. We build strong baselines and conduct extensive experiments on three widely used benchmarks to demonstrate the superiority of our method.

Prompt-based classifiers are an attractive approach for zero-shot classification. However, the precise choice of the prompt template and label words can largely influence performance, with semantically equivalent settings often showing notable performance difference. This discrepancy can be partly attributed to word biases, where the classifier may be biased towards classes. To address this problem, it is possible to optimise classification thresholds on a labelled data set, however, this mitigates some of the advantages of prompt-based classifiers. This paper instead approaches this problem by examining the expected marginal probabilities of the classes. Here, probabilities are reweighted to have a uniform prior over classes, in an unsupervised fashion. Further, we draw a theoretical connection between the class priors and the language models' word prior, and offer the ability to set a threshold in a zero-resource fashion. We show that matching class priors correlates strongly with the oracle upper bound performance and demonstrate large consistent performance gains for prompt settings over a range of NLP tasks.

Prediction sets have recently been shown to be a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of deep neural networks in a way that provides theoretical guarantees. However, existing techniques have largely targeted settings where the space of labels is simple, so prediction sets can be arbitrary subsets of labels. For structured prediction problems where the space of labels is exponential in size, even prediction sets containing a small fraction of all labels can be exponentially large. In the context of code generation, we propose a solution that considers a restricted set of prediction sets that can compactly be represented as partial programs, which are programs with portions replaced with holes. Given a trained code generation model, our algorithm leverages a programming language's abstract syntax tree to generate a set of programs such that the correct program is in the set with high-confidence. Valuable applications of our algorithm include a Codex-style code generator with holes in uncertain parts of the generated code, which provides a partial program with theoretical guarantees. We evaluate our approach on PICARD (a T5 model for SQL semantic parsing) and Codex (a GPT model for over a dozen programming languages, including Python), demonstrating that our approach generates compact PAC prediction sets. This is the first research contribution that generates PAC prediction sets for generative code models.

New classes arise frequently in our ever-changing world, e.g., emerging topics in social media and new types of products in e-commerce. A model should recognize new classes and meanwhile maintain discriminability over old classes. Under severe circumstances, only limited novel instances are available to incrementally update the model. The task of recognizing few-shot new classes without forgetting old classes is called few-shot class-incremental learning (FSCIL). In this work, we propose a new paradigm for FSCIL based on meta-learning by LearnIng Multi-phase Incremental Tasks (LIMIT), which synthesizes fake FSCIL tasks from the base dataset. The data format of fake tasks is consistent with the `real' incremental tasks, and we can build a generalizable feature space for the unseen tasks through meta-learning. Besides, LIMIT also constructs a calibration module based on transformer, which calibrates the old class classifiers and new class prototypes into the same scale and fills in the semantic gap. The calibration module also adaptively contextualizes the instance-specific embedding with a set-to-set function. LIMIT efficiently adapts to new classes and meanwhile resists forgetting over old classes. Experiments on three benchmark datasets (CIFAR100, miniImageNet, and CUB200) and large-scale dataset, i.e., ImageNet ILSVRC2012 validate that LIMIT achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Due to their high predictive performance and flexibility, machine learning models are an appropriate and efficient tool for ecologists. However, implementing a machine learning model is not yet a trivial task and may seem intimidating to ecologists with no previous experience in this area. Here we provide a series of tips to help ecologists in implementing machine learning models. We focus on classification problems as many ecological studies aim to assign data into predefined classes such as ecological states or biological entities. Each of the nine tips identifies a common error, trap or challenge in developing machine learning models and provides recommendations to facilitate their use in ecological studies.

Novel Class Discovery (NCD) is the problem of trying to discover novel classes in an unlabeled set, given a labeled set of different but related classes. The majority of NCD methods proposed so far only deal with image data, despite tabular data being among the most widely used type of data in practical applications. To interpret the results of clustering or NCD algorithms, data scientists need to understand the domain- and application-specific attributes of tabular data. This task is difficult and can often only be performed by a domain expert. Therefore, this interface allows a domain expert to easily run state-of-the-art algorithms for NCD in tabular data. With minimal knowledge in data science, interpretable results can be generated.

In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order probability distributions, i.e., predictions in the form of distributions on probability distributions. A completely conclusive solution has not yet been found, however, as shown by recent criticisms of commonly used uncertainty measures associated with second-order distributions, identifying undesirable theoretical properties of these measures. In light of these criticisms, we propose a set of formal criteria that meaningful uncertainty measures for predictive uncertainty based on second-order distributions should obey. Moreover, we provide a general framework for developing uncertainty measures to account for these criteria, and offer an instantiation based on the Wasserstein distance, for which we prove that all criteria are satisfied.

In light of recent work on scheduling with predicted job sizes, we consider the effect of the cost of predictions in queueing systems, removing the assumption in prior research that predictions are external to the system's resources and/or cost-free. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to utilizing predictions, SkipPredict, designed to address their inherent cost. Rather than uniformly applying predictions to all jobs, we propose a tailored approach that categorizes jobs based on their prediction requirements. To achieve this, we employ one-bit "cheap predictions" to classify jobs as either short or long. SkipPredict prioritizes predicted short jobs over long jobs, and for the latter, SkipPredict applies a second round of more detailed "expensive predictions" to approximate Shortest Remaining Processing Time for these jobs. Our analysis takes into account the cost of prediction. We examine the effect of this cost for two distinct models. In the external cost model, predictions are generated by some external method without impacting job service times but incur a cost. In the server time cost model, predictions themselves require server processing time, and are scheduled on the same server as the jobs.

While neural networks are used for classification tasks across domains, a long-standing open problem in machine learning is determining whether neural networks trained using standard procedures are optimal for classification, i.e., whether such models minimize the probability of misclassification for arbitrary data distributions. In this work, we identify and construct an explicit set of neural network classifiers that achieve optimality. Since effective neural networks in practice are typically both wide and deep, we analyze infinitely wide networks that are also infinitely deep. In particular, using the recent connection between infinitely wide neural networks and Neural Tangent Kernels, we provide explicit activation functions that can be used to construct networks that achieve optimality. Interestingly, these activation functions are simple and easy to implement, yet differ from commonly used activations such as ReLU or sigmoid. More generally, we create a taxonomy of infinitely wide and deep networks and show that these models implement one of three well-known classifiers depending on the activation function used: (1) 1-nearest neighbor (model predictions are given by the label of the nearest training example); (2) majority vote (model predictions are given by the label of the class with greatest representation in the training set); or (3) singular kernel classifiers (a set of classifiers containing those that achieve optimality). Our results highlight the benefit of using deep networks for classification tasks, in contrast to regression tasks, where excessive depth is harmful.

Ordinal regression refers to classifying object instances into ordinal categories. It has been widely studied in many scenarios, such as medical disease grading, movie rating, etc. Known methods focused only on learning inter-class ordinal relationships, but still incur limitations in distinguishing adjacent categories thus far. In this paper, we propose a simple sequence prediction framework for ordinal regression called Ord2Seq, which, for the first time, transforms each ordinal category label into a special label sequence and thus regards an ordinal regression task as a sequence prediction process. In this way, we decompose an ordinal regression task into a series of recursive binary classification steps, so as to subtly distinguish adjacent categories. Comprehensive experiments show the effectiveness of distinguishing adjacent categories for performance improvement and our new approach exceeds state-of-the-art performances in four different scenarios. Codes are available at https://github.com/wjh892521292/Ord2Seq.

In order to properly train a machine learning model, data must be properly collected. To guarantee a proper data collection, verifying that the collected data set holds certain properties is a possible solution. For example, guaranteeing that the data set contains samples across the whole input space, or that the data set is balanced w.r.t. different classes. We present a formal approach for verifying a set of arbitrarily stated properties over a data set. The proposed approach relies on the transformation of the data set into a first order logic formula, which can be later verified w.r.t. the different properties also stated in the same logic. A prototype tool, which uses the z3 solver, has been developed; the prototype can take as an input a set of properties stated in a formal language and formally verify a given data set w.r.t. to the given set of properties. Preliminary experimental results show the feasibility and performance of the proposed approach, and furthermore the flexibility for expressing properties of interest.

Building on developments in machine learning and prior work in the science of judicial prediction, we construct a model designed to predict the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in a generalized, out-of-sample context. To do so, we develop a time evolving random forest classifier which leverages some unique feature engineering to predict more than 240,000 justice votes and 28,000 cases outcomes over nearly two centuries (1816-2015). Using only data available prior to decision, our model outperforms null (baseline) models at both the justice and case level under both parametric and non-parametric tests. Over nearly two centuries, we achieve 70.2% accuracy at the case outcome level and 71.9% at the justice vote level. More recently, over the past century, we outperform an in-sample optimized null model by nearly 5%. Our performance is consistent with, and improves on the general level of prediction demonstrated by prior work; however, our model is distinctive because it can be applied out-of-sample to the entire past and future of the Court, not a single term. Our results represent an important advance for the science of quantitative legal prediction and portend a range of other potential applications.

Diabetic foot ulcers are a common manifestation of lesions on the diabetic foot, a syndrome acquired as a long-term complication of diabetes mellitus. Accompanying neuropathy and vascular damage promote acquisition of pressure injuries and tissue death due to ischaemia. Affected areas are prone to infections, hindering the healing progress. The research at hand investigates an approach on classification of infection and ischaemia, conducted as part of the Diabetic Foot Ulcer Challenge (DFUC) 2021. Different models of the EfficientNet family are utilized in ensembles. An extension strategy for the training data is applied, involving pseudo-labeling for unlabeled images, and extensive generation of synthetic images via pix2pixHD to cope with severe class imbalances. The resulting extended training dataset features 8.68 times the size of the baseline and shows a real to synthetic image ratio of 1:3. Performances of models and ensembles trained on the baseline and extended training dataset are compared. Synthetic images featured a broad qualitative variety. Results show that models trained on the extended training dataset as well as their ensemble benefit from the large extension. F1-Scores for rare classes receive outstanding boosts, while those for common classes are either not harmed or boosted moderately. A critical discussion concretizes benefits and identifies limitations, suggesting improvements. The work concludes that classification performance of individual models as well as that of ensembles can be boosted utilizing synthetic images. Especially performance for rare classes benefits notably.

Building predictive models for robust and accurate prediction of stock prices and stock price movement is a challenging research problem to solve. The well-known efficient market hypothesis believes in the impossibility of accurate prediction of future stock prices in an efficient stock market as the stock prices are assumed to be purely stochastic. However, numerous works proposed by researchers have demonstrated that it is possible to predict future stock prices with a high level of precision using sophisticated algorithms, model architectures, and the selection of appropriate variables in the models. This chapter proposes a collection of predictive regression models built on deep learning architecture for robust and precise prediction of the future prices of a stock listed in the diversified sectors in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The Metastock tool is used to download the historical stock prices over a period of two years (2013- 2014) at 5 minutes intervals. While the records for the first year are used to train the models, the testing is carried out using the remaining records. The design approaches of all the models and their performance results are presented in detail. The models are also compared based on their execution time and accuracy of prediction.

We study the ability of foundation models to learn representations for classification that are transferable to new, unseen classes. Recent results in the literature show that representations learned by a single classifier over many classes are competitive on few-shot learning problems with representations learned by special-purpose algorithms designed for such problems. In this paper we provide an explanation for this behavior based on the recently observed phenomenon that the features learned by overparameterized classification networks show an interesting clustering property, called neural collapse. We demonstrate both theoretically and empirically that neural collapse generalizes to new samples from the training classes, and -- more importantly -- to new classes as well, allowing foundation models to provide feature maps that work well in transfer learning and, specifically, in the few-shot setting.

Understanding why a model makes a certain prediction can be as crucial as the prediction's accuracy in many applications. However, the highest accuracy for large modern datasets is often achieved by complex models that even experts struggle to interpret, such as ensemble or deep learning models, creating a tension between accuracy and interpretability. In response, various methods have recently been proposed to help users interpret the predictions of complex models, but it is often unclear how these methods are related and when one method is preferable over another. To address this problem, we present a unified framework for interpreting predictions, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations). SHAP assigns each feature an importance value for a particular prediction. Its novel components include: (1) the identification of a new class of additive feature importance measures, and (2) theoretical results showing there is a unique solution in this class with a set of desirable properties. The new class unifies six existing methods, notable because several recent methods in the class lack the proposed desirable properties. Based on insights from this unification, we present new methods that show improved computational performance and/or better consistency with human intuition than previous approaches.

Generalized Category Discovery (GCD) aims to identify a mix of known and novel categories within unlabeled data sets, providing a more realistic setting for image recognition. Essentially, GCD needs to remember existing patterns thoroughly to recognize novel categories. Recent state-of-the-art method SimGCD transfers the knowledge from known-class data to the learning of novel classes through debiased learning. However, some patterns are catastrophically forgot during adaptation and thus lead to poor performance in novel categories classification. To address this issue, we propose a novel learning approach, LegoGCD, which is seamlessly integrated into previous methods to enhance the discrimination of novel classes while maintaining performance on previously encountered known classes. Specifically, we design two types of techniques termed as Local Entropy Regularization (LER) and Dual-views Kullback Leibler divergence constraint (DKL). The LER optimizes the distribution of potential known class samples in unlabeled data, thus ensuring the preservation of knowledge related to known categories while learning novel classes. Meanwhile, DKL introduces Kullback Leibler divergence to encourage the model to produce a similar prediction distribution of two view samples from the same image. In this way, it successfully avoids mismatched prediction and generates more reliable potential known class samples simultaneously. Extensive experiments validate that the proposed LegoGCD effectively addresses the known category forgetting issue across all datasets, eg, delivering a 7.74% and 2.51% accuracy boost on known and novel classes in CUB, respectively. Our code is available at: https://github.com/Cliffia123/LegoGCD.

This paper uses the MIMIC-IV dataset to examine the fairness and bias in an XGBoost binary classification model predicting the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) length of stay (LOS). Highlighting the critical role of the ICU in managing critically ill patients, the study addresses the growing strain on ICU capacity. It emphasizes the significance of LOS prediction for resource allocation. The research reveals class imbalances in the dataset across demographic attributes and employs data preprocessing and feature extraction. While the XGBoost model performs well overall, disparities across race and insurance attributes reflect the need for tailored assessments and continuous monitoring. The paper concludes with recommendations for fairness-aware machine learning techniques for mitigating biases and the need for collaborative efforts among healthcare professionals and data scientists.

We present a conceptual framework, datamodeling, for analyzing the behavior of a model class in terms of the training data. For any fixed "target" example x, training set S, and learning algorithm, a datamodel is a parameterized function 2^S to R that for any subset of S' subset S -- using only information about which examples of S are contained in S' -- predicts the outcome of training a model on S' and evaluating on x. Despite the potential complexity of the underlying process being approximated (e.g., end-to-end training and evaluation of deep neural networks), we show that even simple linear datamodels can successfully predict model outputs. We then demonstrate that datamodels give rise to a variety of applications, such as: accurately predicting the effect of dataset counterfactuals; identifying brittle predictions; finding semantically similar examples; quantifying train-test leakage; and embedding data into a well-behaved and feature-rich representation space. Data for this paper (including pre-computed datamodels as well as raw predictions from four million trained deep neural networks) is available at https://github.com/MadryLab/datamodels-data .

Traditional machine learning systems are deployed under the closed-world setting, which requires the entire training data before the offline training process. However, real-world applications often face the incoming new classes, and a model should incorporate them continually. The learning paradigm is called Class-Incremental Learning (CIL). We propose a Python toolbox that implements several key algorithms for class-incremental learning to ease the burden of researchers in the machine learning community. The toolbox contains implementations of a number of founding works of CIL such as EWC and iCaRL, but also provides current state-of-the-art algorithms that can be used for conducting novel fundamental research. This toolbox, named PyCIL for Python Class-Incremental Learning, is available at https://github.com/G-U-N/PyCIL

We present a transformer architecture-based foundation model for tasks at high-energy particle colliders such as the Large Hadron Collider. We train the model to classify jets using a self-supervised strategy inspired by the Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture. We use the JetClass dataset containing 100M jets of various known particles to pre-train the model with a data-centric approach -- the model uses a fraction of the jet constituents as the context to predict the embeddings of the unseen target constituents. Our pre-trained model fares well with other datasets for standard classification benchmark tasks. We test our model on two additional downstream tasks: top tagging and differentiating light-quark jets from gluon jets. We also evaluate our model with task-specific metrics and baselines and compare it with state-of-the-art models in high-energy physics. Project site: https://hep-jepa.github.io/

Machine learning models are often trained to predict the outcome resulting from a human decision. For example, if a doctor decides to test a patient for disease, will the patient test positive? A challenge is that historical decision-making determines whether the outcome is observed: we only observe test outcomes for patients doctors historically tested. Untested patients, for whom outcomes are unobserved, may differ from tested patients along observed and unobserved dimensions. We propose a Bayesian model class which captures this setting. The purpose of the model is to accurately estimate risk for both tested and untested patients. Estimating this model is challenging due to the wide range of possibilities for untested patients. To address this, we propose two domain constraints which are plausible in health settings: a prevalence constraint, where the overall disease prevalence is known, and an expertise constraint, where the human decision-maker deviates from purely risk-based decision-making only along a constrained feature set. We show theoretically and on synthetic data that domain constraints improve parameter inference. We apply our model to a case study of cancer risk prediction, showing that the model's inferred risk predicts cancer diagnoses, its inferred testing policy captures known public health policies, and it can identify suboptimalities in test allocation. Though our case study is in healthcare, our analysis reveals a general class of domain constraints which can improve model estimation in many settings.

Background: Electronic Health Records hold detailed longitudinal information about each patient's health status and general clinical history, a large portion of which is stored within the unstructured text. Existing approaches focus mostly on structured data and a subset of single-domain outcomes. We explore how temporal modelling of patients from free text and structured data, using deep generative transformers can be used to forecast a wide range of future disorders, substances, procedures or findings. Methods: We present Foresight, a novel transformer-based pipeline that uses named entity recognition and linking tools to convert document text into structured, coded concepts, followed by providing probabilistic forecasts for future medical events such as disorders, substances, procedures and findings. We processed the entire free-text portion from three different hospital datasets totalling 811336 patients covering both physical and mental health. Findings: On tests in two UK hospitals (King's College Hospital, South London and Maudsley) and the US MIMIC-III dataset precision@10 0.68, 0.76 and 0.88 was achieved for forecasting the next disorder in a patient timeline, while precision@10 of 0.80, 0.81 and 0.91 was achieved for forecasting the next biomedical concept. Foresight was also validated on 34 synthetic patient timelines by five clinicians and achieved relevancy of 97% for the top forecasted candidate disorder. As a generative model, it can forecast follow-on biomedical concepts for as many steps as required. Interpretation: Foresight is a general-purpose model for biomedical concept modelling that can be used for real-world risk forecasting, virtual trials and clinical research to study the progression of disorders, simulate interventions and counterfactuals, and educational purposes.

We present EMMa, an Extensible, Multimodal dataset of Amazon product listings that contains rich Material annotations. It contains more than 2.8 million objects, each with image(s), listing text, mass, price, product ratings, and position in Amazon's product-category taxonomy. We also design a comprehensive taxonomy of 182 physical materials (e.g., Plastic rightarrow Thermoplastic rightarrow Acrylic). Objects are annotated with one or more materials from this taxonomy. With the numerous attributes available for each object, we develop a Smart Labeling framework to quickly add new binary labels to all objects with very little manual labeling effort, making the dataset extensible. Each object attribute in our dataset can be included in either the model inputs or outputs, leading to combinatorial possibilities in task configurations. For example, we can train a model to predict the object category from the listing text, or the mass and price from the product listing image. EMMa offers a new benchmark for multi-task learning in computer vision and NLP, and allows practitioners to efficiently add new tasks and object attributes at scale.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) were recently proposed as a new paradigm for machine learning. Instead of training the network to an observed training set, a fixed model is pre-trained offline on small, simulated training sets from a variety of tasks. The pre-trained model is then used to infer class probabilities in-context on fresh training sets with arbitrary size and distribution. Empirically, PFNs achieve state-of-the-art performance on tasks with similar size to the ones used in pre-training. Surprisingly, their accuracy further improves when passed larger data sets during inference. This article establishes a theoretical foundation for PFNs and illuminates the statistical mechanisms governing their behavior. While PFNs are motivated by Bayesian ideas, a purely frequentistic interpretation of PFNs as pre-tuned, but untrained predictors explains their behavior. A predictor's variance vanishes if its sensitivity to individual training samples does and the bias vanishes only if it is appropriately localized around the test feature. The transformer architecture used in current PFN implementations ensures only the former. These findings shall prove useful for designing architectures with favorable empirical behavior.

Language models have recently been shown capable of performing regression tasks wherein numeric predictions are represented as decoded strings. In this work, we provide theoretical grounds for this capability and furthermore investigate the utility of causal auto-regressive sequence models when they are applied to any feature representation. We find that, despite being trained in the usual way - for next-token prediction via cross-entropy loss - decoding-based regression is as performant as traditional approaches for tabular regression tasks, while being flexible enough to capture arbitrary distributions, such as in the task of density estimation.

Generalized zero-shot learning (GZSL) is the problem of learning a classifier where some classes have samples and others are learned from side information, like semantic attributes or text description, in a zero-shot learning fashion (ZSL). Training a single model that operates in these two regimes simultaneously is challenging. Here we describe a probabilistic approach that breaks the model into three modular components, and then combines them in a consistent way. Specifically, our model consists of three classifiers: A "gating" model that makes soft decisions if a sample is from a "seen" class, and two experts: a ZSL expert, and an expert model for seen classes. We address two main difficulties in this approach: How to provide an accurate estimate of the gating probability without any training samples for unseen classes; and how to use expert predictions when it observes samples outside of its domain. The key insight to our approach is to pass information between the three models to improve each one's accuracy, while maintaining the modular structure. We test our approach, adaptive confidence smoothing (COSMO), on four standard GZSL benchmark datasets and find that it largely outperforms state-of-the-art GZSL models. COSMO is also the first model that closes the gap and surpasses the performance of generative models for GZSL, even-though it is a light-weight model that is much easier to train and tune. Notably, COSMO offers a new view for developing zero-shot models. Thanks to COSMO's modular structure, instead of trying to perform well both on seen and on unseen classes, models can focus on accurate classification of unseen classes, and later consider seen class models.

Databases of electronic health records (EHRs) are increasingly used to inform clinical decisions. Machine learning methods can find patterns in EHRs that are predictive of future adverse outcomes. However, statistical models may be built upon patterns of health-seeking behavior that vary across patient subpopulations, leading to poor predictive performance when training on one patient population and predicting on another. This note proposes two tests to better measure and understand model generalization. We use these tests to compare models derived from two data sources: (i) historical medical records, and (ii) electrocardiogram (EKG) waveforms. In a predictive task, we show that EKG-based models can be more stable than EHR-based models across different patient populations.

We present a machine learning search for local, low-mass galaxies (z < 0.02 and 10^6 M_odot < M_* < 10^9 M_odot) using the combined photometric data from the DESI Imaging Legacy Surveys and the WISE survey. We introduce the spectrally confirmed training sample, discuss evaluation metrics, investigate the features, compare different machine learning algorithms, and find that a 7-class neural network classification model is highly effective in separating the signal (local, low-mass galaxies) from various contaminants, reaching a precision of 95% and a recall of 76%. The principal contaminants are nearby sub-L^* galaxies at 0.02 < z < 0.05 and nearby massive galaxies at 0.05 < z < 0.2. We find that the features encoding surface brightness information are essential to achieving a correct classification. Our final catalog, which we make available, consists of 112,859 local, low-mass galaxy candidates, where 36,408 have high probability (p_{rm signal} > 0.95), covering the entire Legacy Surveys DR9 footprint. Using DESI-EDR public spectra and data from the SAGA and ELVES surveys, we find that our model has a precision of sim 100%, 96%, and 97%, respectively, and a recall of sim 51%, 68% and 53%, respectively. The results of those independent spectral verification demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our machine learning classification model.

We introduce a novel class of sample-based explanations we term high-dimensional representers, that can be used to explain the predictions of a regularized high-dimensional model in terms of importance weights for each of the training samples. Our workhorse is a novel representer theorem for general regularized high-dimensional models, which decomposes the model prediction in terms of contributions from each of the training samples: with positive (negative) values corresponding to positive (negative) impact training samples to the model's prediction. We derive consequences for the canonical instances of ell_1 regularized sparse models, and nuclear norm regularized low-rank models. As a case study, we further investigate the application of low-rank models in the context of collaborative filtering, where we instantiate high-dimensional representers for specific popular classes of models. Finally, we study the empirical performance of our proposed methods on three real-world binary classification datasets and two recommender system datasets. We also showcase the utility of high-dimensional representers in explaining model recommendations.

In an effort to catalog insect biodiversity, we propose a new large dataset of hand-labelled insect images, the BIOSCAN-Insect Dataset. Each record is taxonomically classified by an expert, and also has associated genetic information including raw nucleotide barcode sequences and assigned barcode index numbers, which are genetically-based proxies for species classification. This paper presents a curated million-image dataset, primarily to train computer-vision models capable of providing image-based taxonomic assessment, however, the dataset also presents compelling characteristics, the study of which would be of interest to the broader machine learning community. Driven by the biological nature inherent to the dataset, a characteristic long-tailed class-imbalance distribution is exhibited. Furthermore, taxonomic labelling is a hierarchical classification scheme, presenting a highly fine-grained classification problem at lower levels. Beyond spurring interest in biodiversity research within the machine learning community, progress on creating an image-based taxonomic classifier will also further the ultimate goal of all BIOSCAN research: to lay the foundation for a comprehensive survey of global biodiversity. This paper introduces the dataset and explores the classification task through the implementation and analysis of a baseline classifier.

Machine learning classification problems are widespread in bioinformatics, but the technical knowledge required to perform model training, optimization, and inference can prevent researchers from utilizing this technology. This article presents an automated tool for machine learning classification problems to simplify the process of training models and producing results while providing informative visualizations and insights into the data. This tool supports both binary and multiclass classification problems, and it provides access to a variety of models and methods. Synthetic data can be generated within the interface to fill missing values, balance class labels, or generate entirely new datasets. It also provides support for feature evaluation and generates explainability scores to indicate which features influence the output the most. We present CLASSify, an open-source tool for simplifying the user experience of solving classification problems without the need for knowledge of machine learning.

We develop task scaling laws and model ladders to predict the individual task performance of pretrained language models (LMs) in the overtrained setting. Standard power laws for language modeling loss cannot accurately model task performance. Therefore, we leverage a two-step prediction approach: first use model and data size to predict a task-specific loss, and then use this task loss to predict task performance. We train a set of small-scale "ladder" models, collect data points to fit the parameterized functions of the two prediction steps, and make predictions for two target models: a 7B model trained to 4T tokens and a 13B model trained to 5T tokens. Training the ladder models only costs 1% of the compute used for the target models. On four multiple-choice tasks written in ranked classification format, we can predict the accuracy of both target models within 2 points of absolute error. We have higher prediction error on four other tasks (average absolute error 6.9) and find that these are often tasks with higher variance in task metrics. We also find that using less compute to train fewer ladder models tends to deteriorate predictions. Finally, we empirically show that our design choices and the two-step approach lead to superior performance in establishing scaling laws.

Physics-based numerical models have been the bedrock of atmospheric sciences for decades, offering robust solutions but often at the cost of significant computational resources. Deep learning (DL) models have emerged as powerful tools in meteorology, capable of analyzing complex weather and climate data by learning intricate dependencies and providing rapid predictions once trained. While these models demonstrate promising performance in weather prediction, often surpassing traditional physics-based methods, they still face critical challenges. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of recent deep learning and foundation models for weather prediction. We propose a taxonomy to classify existing models based on their training paradigms: deterministic predictive learning, probabilistic generative learning, and pre-training and fine-tuning. For each paradigm, we delve into the underlying model architectures, address major challenges, offer key insights, and propose targeted directions for future research. Furthermore, we explore real-world applications of these methods and provide a curated summary of open-source code repositories and widely used datasets, aiming to bridge research advancements with practical implementations while fostering open and trustworthy scientific practices in adopting cutting-edge artificial intelligence for weather prediction. The related sources are available at https://github.com/JimengShi/ DL-Foundation-Models-Weather.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

Existing methods, such as concept bottleneck models (CBMs), have been successful in providing concept-based interpretations for black-box deep learning models. They typically work by predicting concepts given the input and then predicting the final class label given the predicted concepts. However, (1) they often fail to capture the high-order, nonlinear interaction between concepts, e.g., correcting a predicted concept (e.g., "yellow breast") does not help correct highly correlated concepts (e.g., "yellow belly"), leading to suboptimal final accuracy; (2) they cannot naturally quantify the complex conditional dependencies between different concepts and class labels (e.g., for an image with the class label "Kentucky Warbler" and a concept "black bill", what is the probability that the model correctly predicts another concept "black crown"), therefore failing to provide deeper insight into how a black-box model works. In response to these limitations, we propose Energy-based Concept Bottleneck Models (ECBMs). Our ECBMs use a set of neural networks to define the joint energy of candidate (input, concept, class) tuples. With such a unified interface, prediction, concept correction, and conditional dependency quantification are then represented as conditional probabilities, which are generated by composing different energy functions. Our ECBMs address both limitations of existing CBMs, providing higher accuracy and richer concept interpretations. Empirical results show that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art on real-world datasets.

A probabilistic classifier with reliable predictive uncertainties i) fits successfully to the target domain data, ii) provides calibrated class probabilities in difficult regions of the target domain (e.g.\ class overlap), and iii) accurately identifies queries coming out of the target domain and rejects them. We introduce an original combination of Evidential Deep Learning, Neural Processes, and Neural Turing Machines capable of providing all three essential properties mentioned above for total uncertainty quantification. We observe our method on five classification tasks to be the only one that can excel all three aspects of total calibration with a single standalone predictor. Our unified solution delivers an implementation-friendly and compute efficient recipe for safety clearance and provides intellectual economy to an investigation of algorithmic roots of epistemic awareness in deep neural nets.

Predicting simple function classes has been widely used as a testbed for developing theory and understanding of the trained Transformer's in-context learning (ICL) ability. In this paper, we revisit the training of Transformers on linear regression tasks, and different from all the existing literature, we consider a bi-objective prediction task of predicting both the conditional expectation E[Y|X] and the conditional variance Var(Y|X). This additional uncertainty quantification objective provides a handle to (i) better design out-of-distribution experiments to distinguish ICL from in-weight learning (IWL) and (ii) make a better separation between the algorithms with and without using the prior information of the training distribution. Theoretically, we show that the trained Transformer reaches near Bayes-optimum, suggesting the usage of the information of the training distribution. Our method can be extended to other cases. Specifically, with the Transformer's context window S, we prove a generalization bound of mathcal{O}(min{S, T/(n T)}) on n tasks with sequences of length T, providing sharper analysis compared to previous results of mathcal{O}(1/n). Empirically, we illustrate that while the trained Transformer behaves as the Bayes-optimal solution as a natural consequence of supervised training in distribution, it does not necessarily perform a Bayesian inference when facing task shifts, in contrast to the equivalence between these two proposed in many existing literature. We also demonstrate the trained Transformer's ICL ability over covariates shift and prompt-length shift and interpret them as a generalization over a meta distribution.

We introduce a boosting algorithm to pre-process data for fairness. Starting from an initial fair but inaccurate distribution, our approach shifts towards better data fitting while still ensuring a minimal fairness guarantee. To do so, it learns the sufficient statistics of an exponential family with boosting-compliant convergence. Importantly, we are able to theoretically prove that the learned distribution will have a representation rate and statistical rate data fairness guarantee. Unlike recent optimization based pre-processing methods, our approach can be easily adapted for continuous domain features. Furthermore, when the weak learners are specified to be decision trees, the sufficient statistics of the learned distribution can be examined to provide clues on sources of (un)fairness. Empirical results are present to display the quality of result on real-world data.

In this paper, we introduce the Chinese AI and Law challenge dataset (CAIL2018), the first large-scale Chinese legal dataset for judgment prediction. \dataset contains more than 2.6 million criminal cases published by the Supreme People's Court of China, which are several times larger than other datasets in existing works on judgment prediction. Moreover, the annotations of judgment results are more detailed and rich. It consists of applicable law articles, charges, and prison terms, which are expected to be inferred according to the fact descriptions of cases. For comparison, we implement several conventional text classification baselines for judgment prediction and experimental results show that it is still a challenge for current models to predict the judgment results of legal cases, especially on prison terms. To help the researchers make improvements on legal judgment prediction, both \dataset and baselines will be released after the CAIL competitionhttp://cail.cipsc.org.cn/.

In this work, we develop a technique to produce counterfactual visual explanations. Given a 'query' image I for which a vision system predicts class c, a counterfactual visual explanation identifies how I could change such that the system would output a different specified class c'. To do this, we select a 'distractor' image I' that the system predicts as class c' and identify spatial regions in I and I' such that replacing the identified region in I with the identified region in I' would push the system towards classifying I as c'. We apply our approach to multiple image classification datasets generating qualitative results showcasing the interpretability and discriminativeness of our counterfactual explanations. To explore the effectiveness of our explanations in teaching humans, we present machine teaching experiments for the task of fine-grained bird classification. We find that users trained to distinguish bird species fare better when given access to counterfactual explanations in addition to training examples.

Localizing and recognizing objects in the open-ended physical world poses a long-standing challenge within the domain of machine perception. Recent methods have endeavored to address the issue by employing a class-agnostic mask (or box) proposal model, complemented by an open-vocabulary classifier (e.g., CLIP) using pre-extracted text embeddings. However, it is worth noting that these open-vocabulary recognition models still exhibit limitations in practical applications. On one hand, they rely on the provision of class names during testing, where the recognition performance heavily depends on this predefined set of semantic classes by users. On the other hand, when training with multiple datasets, human intervention is required to alleviate the label definition conflict between them. In this paper, we introduce the OmniScient Model (OSM), a novel Large Language Model (LLM) based mask classifier, as a straightforward and effective solution to the aforementioned challenges. Specifically, OSM predicts class labels in a generative manner, thus removing the supply of class names during both training and testing. It also enables cross-dataset training without any human interference, exhibiting robust generalization capabilities due to the world knowledge acquired from the LLM. By combining OSM with an off-the-shelf mask proposal model, we present promising results on various benchmarks, and demonstrate its effectiveness in handling novel concepts. Code/model are available at https://github.com/bytedance/OmniScient-Model.

Motivated by recent advances in large language models for Natural Language Processing (NLP), we design a time-series foundation model for forecasting whose out-of-the-box zero-shot performance on a variety of public datasets comes close to the accuracy of state-of-the-art supervised forecasting models for each individual dataset. Our model is based on pretraining a patched-decoder style attention model on a large time-series corpus, and can work well across different forecasting history lengths, prediction lengths and temporal granularities.

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

Predictive model design for accurately predicting future stock prices has always been considered an interesting and challenging research problem. The task becomes complex due to the volatile and stochastic nature of the stock prices in the real world which is affected by numerous controllable and uncontrollable variables. This paper presents an optimized predictive model built on long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) architecture for automatically extracting past stock prices from the web over a specified time interval and predicting their future prices for a specified forecast horizon, and forecasts the future stock prices. The model is deployed for making buy and sell transactions based on its predicted results for 70 important stocks from seven different sectors listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The profitability of each sector is derived based on the total profit yielded by the stocks in that sector over a period from Jan 1, 2010 to Aug 26, 2021. The sectors are compared based on their profitability values. The prediction accuracy of the model is also evaluated for each sector. The results indicate that the model is highly accurate in predicting future stock prices.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

We evaluated the effectiveness of using language models, that were pre-trained in one domain, as the basis for a classification model in another domain: Dutch book reviews. Pre-trained language models have opened up new possibilities for classification tasks with limited labelled data, because representation can be learned in an unsupervised fashion. In our experiments we have studied the effects of training set size (100-1600 items) on the prediction accuracy of a ULMFiT classifier, based on a language models that we pre-trained on the Dutch Wikipedia. We also compared ULMFiT to Support Vector Machines, which is traditionally considered suitable for small collections. We found that ULMFiT outperforms SVM for all training set sizes and that satisfactory results (~90%) can be achieved using training sets that can be manually annotated within a few hours. We deliver both our new benchmark collection of Dutch book reviews for sentiment classification as well as the pre-trained Dutch language model to the community.

Deep models, e.g., CNNs and Vision Transformers, have achieved impressive achievements in many vision tasks in the closed world. However, novel classes emerge from time to time in our ever-changing world, requiring a learning system to acquire new knowledge continually. For example, a robot needs to understand new instructions, and an opinion monitoring system should analyze emerging topics every day. Class-Incremental Learning (CIL) enables the learner to incorporate the knowledge of new classes incrementally and build a universal classifier among all seen classes. Correspondingly, when directly training the model with new class instances, a fatal problem occurs -- the model tends to catastrophically forget the characteristics of former ones, and its performance drastically degrades. There have been numerous efforts to tackle catastrophic forgetting in the machine learning community. In this paper, we survey comprehensively recent advances in deep class-incremental learning and summarize these methods from three aspects, i.e., data-centric, model-centric, and algorithm-centric. We also provide a rigorous and unified evaluation of 16 methods in benchmark image classification tasks to find out the characteristics of different algorithms empirically. Furthermore, we notice that the current comparison protocol ignores the influence of memory budget in model storage, which may result in unfair comparison and biased results. Hence, we advocate fair comparison by aligning the memory budget in evaluation, as well as several memory-agnostic performance measures. The source code to reproduce these evaluations is available at https://github.com/zhoudw-zdw/CIL_Survey/

We address the neural network robustness problem by adding Similarity (i.e., correctly predicted depth-matches into training)-awareness and Distance-to-training-distribution-awareness to the existing output Magnitude (i.e., decision-boundary)-awareness of the softmax function. The resulting SDM activation function provides strong signals of the relative epistemic (reducible) predictive uncertainty. We use this novel behavior to further address the complementary HCI problem of mapping the output to human-interpretable summary statistics over relevant partitions of a held-out calibration set. Estimates of prediction-conditional uncertainty are obtained via a parsimonious learned transform over the class-conditional empirical CDFs of the output of a final-layer SDM activation function. For decision-making and as an intrinsic model check, estimates of class-conditional accuracy are obtained by further partitioning the high-probability regions of this calibrated output into class-conditional, region-specific CDFs. The uncertainty estimates from SDM calibration are remarkably robust to test-time distribution shifts and out-of-distribution inputs; incorporate awareness of the effective sample size; provide estimates of uncertainty from the learning and data splitting processes; and are well-suited for selective classification and conditional branching for additional test-time compute based on the predictive uncertainty, as for selective LLM generation, routing, and composition over multiple models and retrieval. Finally, we construct SDM networks, LLMs with uncertainty-aware verification and interpretability-by-exemplar as intrinsic properties. We provide open-source software implementing these results.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

Accurate stock market predictions following earnings reports are crucial for investors. Traditional methods, particularly classical machine learning models, struggle with these predictions because they cannot effectively process and interpret extensive textual data contained in earnings reports and often overlook nuances that influence market movements. This paper introduces an advanced approach by employing Large Language Models (LLMs) instruction fine-tuned with a novel combination of instruction-based techniques and quantized low-rank adaptation (QLoRA) compression. Our methodology integrates 'base factors', such as financial metric growth and earnings transcripts, with 'external factors', including recent market indices performances and analyst grades, to create a rich, supervised dataset. This comprehensive dataset enables our models to achieve superior predictive performance in terms of accuracy, weighted F1, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), especially evident in the comparison with benchmarks such as GPT-4. We specifically highlight the efficacy of the llama-3-8b-Instruct-4bit model, which showcases significant improvements over baseline models. The paper also discusses the potential of expanding the output capabilities to include a 'Hold' option and extending the prediction horizon, aiming to accommodate various investment styles and time frames. This study not only demonstrates the power of integrating cutting-edge AI with fine-tuned financial data but also paves the way for future research in enhancing AI-driven financial analysis tools.

The research field of Legal Natural Language Processing (NLP) has been very active recently, with Legal Judgment Prediction (LJP) becoming one of the most extensively studied tasks. To date, most publicly released LJP datasets originate from countries with civil law. In this work, we release, for the first time, a challenging LJP dataset focused on class action cases in the US. It is the first dataset in the common law system that focuses on the harder and more realistic task involving the complaints as input instead of the often used facts summary written by the court. Additionally, we study the difficulty of the task by collecting expert human predictions, showing that even human experts can only reach 53% accuracy on this dataset. Our Longformer model clearly outperforms the human baseline (63%), despite only considering the first 2,048 tokens. Furthermore, we perform a detailed error analysis and find that the Longformer model is significantly better calibrated than the human experts. Finally, we publicly release the dataset and the code used for the experiments.

The k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) classification approach is conceptually simple - yet widely applied since it often performs well in practical applications. However, using a global constant k does not always provide an optimal solution, e.g., for datasets with an irregular density distribution of data points. This paper proposes an adaptive kNN classifier where k is chosen dynamically for each instance (point) to be classified, such that the expected accuracy of classification is maximized. We define the expected accuracy as the accuracy of a set of structurally similar observations. An arbitrary similarity function can be used to find these observations. We introduce and evaluate different similarity functions. For the evaluation, we use five different classification tasks based on geo-spatial data. Each classification task consists of (tens of) thousands of items. We demonstrate, that the presented expected accuracy measures can be a good estimator for kNN performance, and the proposed adaptive kNN classifier outperforms common kNN and previously introduced adaptive kNN algorithms. Also, we show that the range of considered k can be significantly reduced to speed up the algorithm without negative influence on classification accuracy.

We investigate the problem of determining the predictive confidence (or, conversely, uncertainty) of a neural classifier through the lens of low-resource languages. By training models on sub-sampled datasets in three different languages, we assess the quality of estimates from a wide array of approaches and their dependence on the amount of available data. We find that while approaches based on pre-trained models and ensembles achieve the best results overall, the quality of uncertainty estimates can surprisingly suffer with more data. We also perform a qualitative analysis of uncertainties on sequences, discovering that a model's total uncertainty seems to be influenced to a large degree by its data uncertainty, not model uncertainty. All model implementations are open-sourced in a software package.

The growing popularity of data mining catalyses the researchers to explore various exciting aspects of education. Early prediction of student performance is an emerging area among them. The researchers have used various predictors in performance modelling studies. Although prior cognition can affect student performance, establishing their relationship is still an open research challenge. Quantifying the knowledge from readily available data is the major challenge here. We have proposed a semantic approach for this purpose. Association mining on nearly 0.35 million observations establishes that prior cognition impacts the student performance. The proposed approach of measuring domain knowledge can help the early performance modelling studies to use it as a predictor.

Categorical variables often appear in datasets for classification and regression tasks, and they need to be encoded into numerical values before training. Since many encoders have been developed and can significantly impact performance, choosing the appropriate encoder for a task becomes a time-consuming yet important practical issue. This study broadly classifies machine learning models into three categories: 1) ATI models that implicitly perform affine transformations on inputs, such as multi-layer perceptron neural network; 2) Tree-based models that are based on decision trees, such as random forest; and 3) the rest, such as kNN. Theoretically, we prove that the one-hot encoder is the best choice for ATI models in the sense that it can mimic any other encoders by learning suitable weights from the data. We also explain why the target encoder and its variants are the most suitable encoders for tree-based models. This study conducted comprehensive computational experiments to evaluate 14 encoders, including one-hot and target encoders, along with eight common machine-learning models on 28 datasets. The computational results agree with our theoretical analysis. The findings in this study shed light on how to select the suitable encoder for data scientists in fields such as fraud detection, disease diagnosis, etc.

Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in reality, such approaches can be sensitive to estimation error and yield unstable intervals.~Here, we circumvent the challenges by converting regression to a classification problem and then use CP for classification to obtain CP sets for regression.~To preserve the ordering of the continuous-output space, we design a new loss function and make necessary modifications to the CP classification techniques.~Empirical results on many benchmarks shows that this simple approach gives surprisingly good results on many practical problems.

Machine learning techniques are effective for building predictive models because they identify patterns in large datasets. Development of a model for complex real-life problems often stop at the point of publication, proof of concept or when made accessible through some mode of deployment. However, a model in the medical domain risks becoming obsolete as patient demographics, systems and clinical practices change. The maintenance and monitoring of predictive model performance post-publication is crucial to enable their safe and effective long-term use. We will assess the infrastructure required to monitor the outputs of a machine learning algorithm, and present two scenarios with examples of monitoring and updates of models, firstly on a breast cancer prognosis model trained on public longitudinal data, and secondly on a neurodegenerative stratification algorithm that is currently being developed and tested in clinic.

Although deep neural networks achieve tremendous success on various classification tasks, the generalization ability drops sheer when training datasets exhibit long-tailed distributions. One of the reasons is that the learned representations (i.e. features) from the imbalanced datasets are less effective than those from balanced datasets. Specifically, the learned representation under class-balanced distribution will present the Neural Collapse (NC) phenomena. NC indicates the features from the same category are close to each other and from different categories are maximally distant, showing an optimal linear separable state of classification. However, the pattern differs on imbalanced datasets and is partially responsible for the reduced performance of the model. In this work, we propose two explicit feature regularization terms to learn high-quality representation for class-imbalanced data. With the proposed regularization, NC phenomena will appear under the class-imbalanced distribution, and the generalization ability can be significantly improved. Our method is easily implemented, highly effective, and can be plugged into most existing methods. The extensive experimental results on widely-used benchmarks show the effectiveness of our method

Feature attribution methods identify which features of an input most influence a model's output. Most widely-used feature attribution methods (such as SHAP, LIME, and Grad-CAM) are "class-dependent" methods in that they generate a feature attribution vector as a function of class. In this work, we demonstrate that class-dependent methods can "leak" information about the selected class, making that class appear more likely than it is. Thus, an end user runs the risk of drawing false conclusions when interpreting an explanation generated by a class-dependent method. In contrast, we introduce "distribution-aware" methods, which favor explanations that keep the label's distribution close to its distribution given all features of the input. We introduce SHAP-KL and FastSHAP-KL, two baseline distribution-aware methods that compute Shapley values. Finally, we perform a comprehensive evaluation of seven class-dependent and three distribution-aware methods on three clinical datasets of different high-dimensional data types: images, biosignals, and text.

Competitions play an invaluable role in the field of forecasting, as exemplified through the recent M4 competition. The competition received attention from both academics and practitioners and sparked discussions around the representativeness of the data for business forecasting. Several competitions featuring real-life business forecasting tasks on the Kaggle platform has, however, been largely ignored by the academic community. We believe the learnings from these competitions have much to offer to the forecasting community and provide a review of the results from six Kaggle competitions. We find that most of the Kaggle datasets are characterized by higher intermittence and entropy than the M-competitions and that global ensemble models tend to outperform local single models. Furthermore, we find the strong performance of gradient boosted decision trees, increasing success of neural networks for forecasting, and a variety of techniques for adapting machine learning models to the forecasting task.

Foundation models (FMs) trained on electronic health records (EHRs) have shown strong performance on a range of clinical prediction tasks. However, adapting these models to local health systems remains challenging due to limited data availability and resource constraints. In this study, we investigated what these models learn and evaluated the transferability of an FM trained on MIMIC-IV to an institutional EHR dataset at the University of Chicago Medical Center. We assessed their ability to identify outlier patients and examined representation-space patient trajectories in relation to future clinical outcomes. We also evaluated the performance of supervised fine-tuned classifiers on both source and target datasets. Our findings offer insights into the adaptability of FMs across different healthcare systems, highlight considerations for their effective implementation, and provide an empirical analysis of the underlying factors that contribute to their predictive performance.

Online misinformation has been a serious threat to public health and society. Social media users are known to reply to misinformation posts with counter-misinformation messages, which have been shown to be effective in curbing the spread of misinformation. This is called social correction. However, the characteristics of tweets that attract social correction versus those that do not remain unknown. To close the gap, we focus on answering the following two research questions: (1) ``Given a tweet, will it be countered by other users?'', and (2) ``If yes, what will be the magnitude of countering it?''. This exploration will help develop mechanisms to guide users' misinformation correction efforts and to measure disparity across users who get corrected. In this work, we first create a novel dataset with 690,047 pairs of misinformation tweets and counter-misinformation replies. Then, stratified analysis of tweet linguistic and engagement features as well as tweet posters' user attributes are conducted to illustrate the factors that are significant in determining whether a tweet will get countered. Finally, predictive classifiers are created to predict the likelihood of a misinformation tweet to get countered and the degree to which that tweet will be countered. The code and data is accessible on https://github.com/claws-lab/social-correction-twitter.

Reasoning from sequences of raw sensory data is a ubiquitous problem across fields ranging from medical devices to robotics. These problems often involve using long sequences of raw sensor data (e.g. magnetometers, piezoresistors) to predict sequences of desirable physical quantities (e.g. force, inertial measurements). While classical approaches are powerful for locally-linear prediction problems, they often fall short when using real-world sensors. These sensors are typically non-linear, are affected by extraneous variables (e.g. vibration), and exhibit data-dependent drift. For many problems, the prediction task is exacerbated by small labeled datasets since obtaining ground-truth labels requires expensive equipment. In this work, we present Hierarchical State-Space Models (HiSS), a conceptually simple, new technique for continuous sequential prediction. HiSS stacks structured state-space models on top of each other to create a temporal hierarchy. Across six real-world sensor datasets, from tactile-based state prediction to accelerometer-based inertial measurement, HiSS outperforms state-of-the-art sequence models such as causal Transformers, LSTMs, S4, and Mamba by at least 23% on MSE. Our experiments further indicate that HiSS demonstrates efficient scaling to smaller datasets and is compatible with existing data-filtering techniques. Code, datasets and videos can be found on https://hiss-csp.github.io.

Review websites, such as TripAdvisor and Yelp, allow users to post online reviews for various businesses, products and services, and have been recently shown to have a significant influence on consumer shopping behaviour. An online review typically consists of free-form text and a star rating out of 5. The problem of predicting a user's star rating for a product, given the user's text review for that product, is called Review Rating Prediction and has lately become a popular, albeit hard, problem in machine learning. In this paper, we treat Review Rating Prediction as a multi-class classification problem, and build sixteen different prediction models by combining four feature extraction methods, (i) unigrams, (ii) bigrams, (iii) trigrams and (iv) Latent Semantic Indexing, with four machine learning algorithms, (i) logistic regression, (ii) Naive Bayes classification, (iii) perceptrons, and (iv) linear Support Vector Classification. We analyse the performance of each of these sixteen models to come up with the best model for predicting the ratings from reviews. We use the dataset provided by Yelp for training and testing the models.

We propose a deep learning methodology for multivariate regression that is based on pattern recognition that triggers fast learning over sensor data. We used a conversion of sensors-to-image which enables us to take advantage of Computer Vision architectures and training processes. In addition to this data preparation methodology, we explore the use of state-of-the-art architectures to generate regression outputs to predict agricultural crop continuous yield information. Finally, we compare with some of the top models reported in MLCAS2021. We found that using a straightforward training process, we were able to accomplish an MAE of 4.394, RMSE of 5.945, and R^2 of 0.861.

While traditional machine learning can effectively tackle a wide range of problems, it primarily operates within a closed-world setting, which presents limitations when dealing with streaming data. As a solution, incremental learning emerges to address real-world scenarios involving new data's arrival. Recently, pre-training has made significant advancements and garnered the attention of numerous researchers. The strong performance of these pre-trained models (PTMs) presents a promising avenue for developing continual learning algorithms that can effectively adapt to real-world scenarios. Consequently, exploring the utilization of PTMs in incremental learning has become essential. This paper introduces a pre-trained model-based continual learning toolbox known as PILOT. On the one hand, PILOT implements some state-of-the-art class-incremental learning algorithms based on pre-trained models, such as L2P, DualPrompt, and CODA-Prompt. On the other hand, PILOT also fits typical class-incremental learning algorithms (e.g., DER, FOSTER, and MEMO) within the context of pre-trained models to evaluate their effectiveness.

A large-scale deep model pre-trained on massive labeled or unlabeled data transfers well to downstream tasks. Linear evaluation freezes parameters in the pre-trained model and trains a linear classifier separately, which is efficient and attractive for transfer. However, little work has investigated the classifier in linear evaluation except for the default logistic regression. Inspired by the statistical efficiency of naive Bayes, the paper revisits the classical topic on discriminative vs. generative classifiers. Theoretically, the paper considers the surrogate loss instead of the zero-one loss in analyses and generalizes the classical results from binary cases to multiclass ones. We show that, under mild assumptions, multiclass naive Bayes requires O(log n) samples to approach its asymptotic error while the corresponding multiclass logistic regression requires O(n) samples, where n is the feature dimension. To establish it, we present a multiclass H-consistency bound framework and an explicit bound for logistic loss, which are of independent interests. Simulation results on a mixture of Gaussian validate our theoretical findings. Experiments on various pre-trained deep vision models show that naive Bayes consistently converges faster as the number of data increases. Besides, naive Bayes shows promise in few-shot cases and we observe the "two regimes" phenomenon in pre-trained supervised models. Our code is available at https://github.com/ML-GSAI/Revisiting-Dis-vs-Gen-Classifiers.

Random forests and, more generally, (decision\nobreakdash-)tree ensembles are widely used methods for classification and regression. Recent algorithmic advances allow to compute decision trees that are optimal for various measures such as their size or depth. We are not aware of such research for tree ensembles and aim to contribute to this area. Mainly, we provide two novel algorithms and corresponding lower bounds. First, we are able to carry over and substantially improve on tractability results for decision trees, obtaining a (6delta D S)^S cdot poly-time algorithm, where S is the number of cuts in the tree ensemble, D the largest domain size, and delta is the largest number of features in which two examples differ. To achieve this, we introduce the witness-tree technique which also seems promising for practice. Second, we show that dynamic programming, which has been successful for decision trees, may also be viable for tree ensembles, providing an ell^n cdot poly-time algorithm, where ell is the number of trees and n the number of examples. Finally, we compare the number of cuts necessary to classify training data sets for decision trees and tree ensembles, showing that ensembles may need exponentially fewer cuts for increasing number of trees.

Generalized Category Discovery (GCD) is a pragmatic and challenging open-world task, which endeavors to cluster unlabeled samples from both novel and old classes, leveraging some labeled data of old classes. Given that knowledge learned from old classes is not fully transferable to new classes, and that novel categories are fully unlabeled, GCD inherently faces intractable problems, including imbalanced classification performance and inconsistent confidence between old and new classes, especially in the low-labeling regime. Hence, some annotations of new classes are deemed necessary. However, labeling new classes is extremely costly. To address this issue, we take the spirit of active learning and propose a new setting called Active Generalized Category Discovery (AGCD). The goal is to improve the performance of GCD by actively selecting a limited amount of valuable samples for labeling from the oracle. To solve this problem, we devise an adaptive sampling strategy, which jointly considers novelty, informativeness and diversity to adaptively select novel samples with proper uncertainty. However, owing to the varied orderings of label indices caused by the clustering of novel classes, the queried labels are not directly applicable to subsequent training. To overcome this issue, we further propose a stable label mapping algorithm that transforms ground truth labels to the label space of the classifier, thereby ensuring consistent training across different active selection stages. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on both generic and fine-grained datasets. Our code is available at https://github.com/mashijie1028/ActiveGCD

Active learning (AL) in open set scenarios presents a novel challenge of identifying the most valuable examples in an unlabeled data pool that comprises data from both known and unknown classes. Traditional methods prioritize selecting informative examples with low confidence, with the risk of mistakenly selecting unknown-class examples with similarly low confidence. Recent methods favor the most probable known-class examples, with the risk of picking simple already mastered examples. In this paper, we attempt to query examples that are both likely from known classes and highly informative, and propose a Bidirectional Uncertainty-based Active Learning (BUAL) framework. Specifically, we achieve this by first pushing the unknown class examples toward regions with high-confidence predictions, i.e., the proposed Random Label Negative Learning method. Then, we propose a Bidirectional Uncertainty sampling strategy by jointly estimating uncertainty posed by both positive and negative learning to perform consistent and stable sampling. BUAL successfully extends existing uncertainty-based AL methods to complex open-set scenarios. Extensive experiments on multiple datasets with varying openness demonstrate that BUAL achieves state-of-the-art performance. The code is available at https://github.com/chenchenzong/BUAL.

Neural image classifiers can often learn to make predictions by overly relying on non-predictive features that are spuriously correlated with the class labels in the training data. This leads to poor performance in real-world atypical scenarios where such features are absent. Supplementing the training dataset with images without such spurious features can aid robust learning against spurious correlations via better generalization. This paper presents ASPIRE (Language-guided data Augmentation for SPurIous correlation REmoval), a simple yet effective solution for expanding the training dataset with synthetic images without spurious features. ASPIRE, guided by language, generates these images without requiring any form of additional supervision or existing examples. Precisely, we employ LLMs to first extract foreground and background features from textual descriptions of an image, followed by advanced language-guided image editing to discover the features that are spuriously correlated with the class label. Finally, we personalize a text-to-image generation model to generate diverse in-domain images without spurious features. We demonstrate the effectiveness of ASPIRE on 4 datasets, including the very challenging Hard ImageNet dataset, and 9 baselines and show that ASPIRE improves the classification accuracy of prior methods by 1% - 38%. Code soon at: https://github.com/Sreyan88/ASPIRE.

In this work we build a stack of machine learning models aimed at composing a state-of-the-art credit rating and default prediction system, obtaining excellent out-of-sample performances. Our approach is an excursion through the most recent ML / AI concepts, starting from natural language processes (NLP) applied to economic sectors' (textual) descriptions using embedding and autoencoders (AE), going through the classification of defaultable firms on the base of a wide range of economic features using gradient boosting machines (GBM) and calibrating their probabilities paying due attention to the treatment of unbalanced samples. Finally we assign credit ratings through genetic algorithms (differential evolution, DE). Model interpretability is achieved by implementing recent techniques such as SHAP and LIME, which explain predictions locally in features' space.

Transformer-based foundation models have emerged as a dominant paradigm in time series analysis, offering unprecedented capabilities in tasks such as forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, trend analysis and many more time series analytical tasks. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the art pre-trained foundation models, introducing a novel taxonomy to categorize them across several dimensions. Specifically, we classify models by their architecture design, distinguishing between those leveraging patch-based representations and those operating directly on raw sequences. The taxonomy further includes whether the models provide probabilistic or deterministic predictions, and whether they are designed to work with univariate time series or can handle multivariate time series out of the box. Additionally, the taxonomy encompasses model scale and complexity, highlighting differences between lightweight architectures and large-scale foundation models. A unique aspect of this survey is its categorization by the type of objective function employed during training phase. By synthesizing these perspectives, this survey serves as a resource for researchers and practitioners, providing insights into current trends and identifying promising directions for future research in transformer-based time series modeling.

Recent efforts have been dedicated to enhancing time series forecasting accuracy by introducing advanced network architectures and self-supervised pretraining strategies. Nevertheless, existing approaches still exhibit two critical drawbacks. Firstly, these methods often rely on a single dataset for training, limiting the model's generalizability due to the restricted scale of the training data. Secondly, the one-step generation schema is widely followed, which necessitates a customized forecasting head and overlooks the temporal dependencies in the output series, and also leads to increased training costs under different horizon length settings. To address these issues, we propose a novel generative pretrained hierarchical transformer architecture for forecasting, named GPHT. There are two aspects of key designs in GPHT. On the one hand, we advocate for constructing a mixed dataset for pretraining our model, comprising various datasets from diverse data scenarios. This approach significantly expands the scale of training data, allowing our model to uncover commonalities in time series data and facilitating improved transfer to specific datasets. On the other hand, GPHT employs an auto-regressive forecasting approach under the channel-independent assumption, effectively modeling temporal dependencies in the output series. Importantly, no customized forecasting head is required, enabling a single model to forecast at arbitrary horizon settings. We conduct sufficient experiments on eight datasets with mainstream self-supervised pretraining models and supervised models. The results demonstrated that GPHT surpasses the baseline models across various fine-tuning and zero/few-shot learning settings in the traditional long-term forecasting task, providing support for verifying the feasibility of pretrained time series large models.

In this paper, we propose Test-Time Training, a general approach for improving the performance of predictive models when training and test data come from different distributions. We turn a single unlabeled test sample into a self-supervised learning problem, on which we update the model parameters before making a prediction. This also extends naturally to data in an online stream. Our simple approach leads to improvements on diverse image classification benchmarks aimed at evaluating robustness to distribution shifts.

We study multiple rule-based and machine learning (ML) models for sepsis detection. We report the first neural network detection and prediction results on three categories of sepsis. We have used the retrospective Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-III dataset, restricted to intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Features for prediction were created from only common vital sign measurements. We show significant improvement of AUC score using neural network based ensemble model compared to single ML and rule-based models. For the detection of sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock, our model achieves an AUC of 0.97, 0.96 and 0.91, respectively. Four hours before the positive hours, it predicts the same three categories with an AUC of 0.90, 0.91 and 0.90 respectively. Further, we ranked the features and found that using six vital signs consistently provides higher detection and prediction AUC for all the models tested. Our novel ensemble model achieves highest AUC in detecting and predicting sepsis, severe sepsis, and septic shock in the MIMIC-III ICU patients, and is amenable to deployment in hospital settings.

We consider non-clairvoyant scheduling with online precedence constraints, where an algorithm is oblivious to any job dependencies and learns about a job only if all of its predecessors have been completed. Given strong impossibility results in classical competitive analysis, we investigate the problem in a learning-augmented setting, where an algorithm has access to predictions without any quality guarantee. We discuss different prediction models: novel problem-specific models as well as general ones, which have been proposed in previous works. We present lower bounds and algorithmic upper bounds for different precedence topologies, and thereby give a structured overview on which and how additional (possibly erroneous) information helps for designing better algorithms. Along the way, we also improve bounds on traditional competitive ratios for existing algorithms.

Prototype-based neural networks offer interpretable predictions by comparing inputs to learned, representative signal patterns anchored in training data. While such models have shown promise in the classification of physiological data, it remains unclear whether their prototypes capture an underlying structure that aligns with broader clinical phenotypes. We use a prototype-based deep learning model trained for multi-label ECG classification using the PTB-XL dataset. Then without modification we performed inference on the MIMIC-IV clinical database. We assess whether individual prototypes, trained solely for classification, are associated with hospital discharge diagnoses in the form of phecodes in this external population. Individual prototypes demonstrate significantly stronger and more specific associations with clinical outcomes compared to the classifier's class predictions, NLP-extracted concepts, or broader prototype classes across all phecode categories. Prototype classes with mixed significance patterns exhibit significantly greater intra-class distances (p < 0.0001), indicating the model learned to differentiate clinically meaningful variations within diagnostic categories. The prototypes achieve strong predictive performance across diverse conditions, with AUCs ranging from 0.89 for atrial fibrillation to 0.91 for heart failure, while also showing substantial signal for non-cardiac conditions such as sepsis and renal disease. These findings suggest that prototype-based models can support interpretable digital phenotyping from physiologic time-series data, providing transferable intermediate phenotypes that capture clinically meaningful physiologic signatures beyond their original training objectives.

Unsupervised pretraining, which learns a useful representation using a large amount of unlabeled data to facilitate the learning of downstream tasks, is a critical component of modern large-scale machine learning systems. Despite its tremendous empirical success, the rigorous theoretical understanding of why unsupervised pretraining generally helps remains rather limited -- most existing results are restricted to particular methods or approaches for unsupervised pretraining with specialized structural assumptions. This paper studies a generic framework, where the unsupervised representation learning task is specified by an abstract class of latent variable models Phi and the downstream task is specified by a class of prediction functions Psi. We consider a natural approach of using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) for unsupervised pretraining and Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) for learning downstream tasks. We prove that, under a mild ''informative'' condition, our algorithm achieves an excess risk of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_Phi/m} + mathcal{C_Psi/n}) for downstream tasks, where C_Phi, C_Psi are complexity measures of function classes Phi, Psi, and m, n are the number of unlabeled and labeled data respectively. Comparing to the baseline of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_{Phi circ Psi}/n}) achieved by performing supervised learning using only the labeled data, our result rigorously shows the benefit of unsupervised pretraining when m gg n and C_{Phicirc Psi} > C_Psi. This paper further shows that our generic framework covers a wide range of approaches for unsupervised pretraining, including factor models, Gaussian mixture models, and contrastive learning.

In this study, we approached the Hit Song Prediction problem, which aims to predict which songs will become Billboard hits. We gathered a dataset of nearly 18500 hit and non-hit songs and extracted their audio features using the Spotify Web API. We test four machine-learning models on our dataset. We were able to predict the Billboard success of a song with approximately 86\% accuracy. The most succesful algorithms were Random Forest and Support Vector Machine.

In this paper, we present a new approach to time series forecasting. Time series data are prevalent in many scientific and engineering disciplines. Time series forecasting is a crucial task in modeling time series data, and is an important area of machine learning. In this work we developed a novel method that employs Transformer-based machine learning models to forecast time series data. This approach works by leveraging self-attention mechanisms to learn complex patterns and dynamics from time series data. Moreover, it is a generic framework and can be applied to univariate and multivariate time series data, as well as time series embeddings. Using influenza-like illness (ILI) forecasting as a case study, we show that the forecasting results produced by our approach are favorably comparable to the state-of-the-art.

Real-world large-scale datasets are both noisily labeled and class-imbalanced. The issues seriously hurt the generalization of trained models. It is hence significant to address the simultaneous incorrect labeling and class-imbalance, i.e., the problem of learning with noisy labels on long-tailed data. Previous works develop several methods for the problem. However, they always rely on strong assumptions that are invalid or hard to be checked in practice. In this paper, to handle the problem and address the limitations of prior works, we propose a representation calibration method RCAL. Specifically, RCAL works with the representations extracted by unsupervised contrastive learning. We assume that without incorrect labeling and class imbalance, the representations of instances in each class conform to a multivariate Gaussian distribution, which is much milder and easier to be checked. Based on the assumption, we recover underlying representation distributions from polluted ones resulting from mislabeled and class-imbalanced data. Additional data points are then sampled from the recovered distributions to help generalization. Moreover, during classifier training, representation learning takes advantage of representation robustness brought by contrastive learning, which further improves the classifier performance. We derive theoretical results to discuss the effectiveness of our representation calibration. Experiments on multiple benchmarks justify our claims and confirm the superiority of the proposed method.

Multi-class classification methods that produce sets of probabilistic classifiers, such as ensemble learning methods, are able to model aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Aleatoric uncertainty is then typically quantified via the Bayes error, and epistemic uncertainty via the size of the set. In this paper, we extend the notion of calibration, which is commonly used to evaluate the validity of the aleatoric uncertainty representation of a single probabilistic classifier, to assess the validity of an epistemic uncertainty representation obtained by sets of probabilistic classifiers. Broadly speaking, we call a set of probabilistic classifiers calibrated if one can find a calibrated convex combination of these classifiers. To evaluate this notion of calibration, we propose a novel nonparametric calibration test that generalizes an existing test for single probabilistic classifiers to the case of sets of probabilistic classifiers. Making use of this test, we empirically show that ensembles of deep neural networks are often not well calibrated.

Legal judgment prediction is the task of automatically predicting the outcome of a court case, given a text describing the case's facts. Previous work on using neural models for this task has focused on Chinese; only feature-based models (e.g., using bags of words and topics) have been considered in English. We release a new English legal judgment prediction dataset, containing cases from the European Court of Human Rights. We evaluate a broad variety of neural models on the new dataset, establishing strong baselines that surpass previous feature-based models in three tasks: (1) binary violation classification; (2) multi-label classification; (3) case importance prediction. We also explore if models are biased towards demographic information via data anonymization. As a side-product, we propose a hierarchical version of BERT, which bypasses BERT's length limitation.

Checklists are simple decision aids that are often used to promote safety and reliability in clinical applications. In this paper, we present a method to learn checklists for clinical decision support. We represent predictive checklists as discrete linear classifiers with binary features and unit weights. We then learn globally optimal predictive checklists from data by solving an integer programming problem. Our method allows users to customize checklists to obey complex constraints, including constraints to enforce group fairness and to binarize real-valued features at training time. In addition, it pairs models with an optimality gap that can inform model development and determine the feasibility of learning sufficiently accurate checklists on a given dataset. We pair our method with specialized techniques that speed up its ability to train a predictive checklist that performs well and has a small optimality gap. We benchmark the performance of our method on seven clinical classification problems, and demonstrate its practical benefits by training a short-form checklist for PTSD screening. Our results show that our method can fit simple predictive checklists that perform well and that can easily be customized to obey a rich class of custom constraints.

Predictive multiplicity refers to the phenomenon in which classification tasks may admit multiple competing models that achieve almost-equally-optimal performance, yet generate conflicting outputs for individual samples. This presents significant concerns, as it can potentially result in systemic exclusion, inexplicable discrimination, and unfairness in practical applications. Measuring and mitigating predictive multiplicity, however, is computationally challenging due to the need to explore all such almost-equally-optimal models, known as the Rashomon set, in potentially huge hypothesis spaces. To address this challenge, we propose a novel framework that utilizes dropout techniques for exploring models in the Rashomon set. We provide rigorous theoretical derivations to connect the dropout parameters to properties of the Rashomon set, and empirically evaluate our framework through extensive experimentation. Numerical results show that our technique consistently outperforms baselines in terms of the effectiveness of predictive multiplicity metric estimation, with runtime speedup up to 20times sim 5000times. With efficient Rashomon set exploration and metric estimation, mitigation of predictive multiplicity is then achieved through dropout ensemble and model selection.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

In high dimension, low sample size (HDLSS) settings, classifiers based on Euclidean distances like the nearest neighbor classifier and the average distance classifier perform quite poorly if differences between locations of the underlying populations get masked by scale differences. To rectify this problem, several modifications of these classifiers have been proposed in the literature. However, existing methods are confined to location and scale differences only, and often fail to discriminate among populations differing outside of the first two moments. In this article, we propose some simple transformations of these classifiers resulting into improved performance even when the underlying populations have the same location and scale. We further propose a generalization of these classifiers based on the idea of grouping of variables. The high-dimensional behavior of the proposed classifiers is studied theoretically. Numerical experiments with a variety of simulated examples as well as an extensive analysis of real data sets exhibit advantages of the proposed methods.

Semi-Supervised Learning (SSL) leverages both labeled and unlabeled data to improve model performance. Traditional SSL methods assume that labeled and unlabeled data share the same label space. However, in real-world applications, especially when the labeled training set is small, there may be classes that are missing from the labeled set. Existing frameworks aim to either reject all unseen classes (open-set SSL) or to discover unseen classes by partitioning an unlabeled set during training (open-world SSL). In our work, we construct a classifier for points from both seen and unseen classes. Our approach is based on extending an existing SSL method, such as FlexMatch, by incorporating an additional entropy loss. This enhancement allows our method to improve the performance of any existing SSL method in the classification of both seen and unseen classes. We demonstrate large improvement gains over state-of-the-art SSL, open-set SSL, and open-world SSL methods, on two benchmark image classification data sets, CIFAR-100 and STL-10. The gains are most pronounced when the labeled data is severely limited (1-25 labeled examples per class).

We analyze how well pre-trained large language models (e.g., Llama2, GPT-4, Claude 3, etc) can do linear and non-linear regression when given in-context examples, without any additional training or gradient updates. Our findings reveal that several large language models (e.g., GPT-4, Claude 3) are able to perform regression tasks with a performance rivaling (or even outperforming) that of traditional supervised methods such as Random Forest, Bagging, or Gradient Boosting. For example, on the challenging Friedman #2 regression dataset, Claude 3 outperforms many supervised methods such as AdaBoost, SVM, Random Forest, KNN, or Gradient Boosting. We then investigate how well the performance of large language models scales with the number of in-context exemplars. We borrow from the notion of regret from online learning and empirically show that LLMs are capable of obtaining a sub-linear regret.

Binary classification involves predicting the label of an instance based on whether the model score for the positive class exceeds a threshold chosen based on the application requirements (e.g., maximizing recall for a precision bound). However, model scores are often not aligned with the true positivity rate. This is especially true when the training involves a differential sampling across classes or there is distributional drift between train and test settings. In this paper, we provide theoretical analysis and empirical evidence of the dependence of model score estimation bias on both uncertainty and score itself. Further, we formulate the decision boundary selection in terms of both model score and uncertainty, prove that it is NP-hard, and present algorithms based on dynamic programming and isotonic regression. Evaluation of the proposed algorithms on three real-world datasets yield 25%-40% gain in recall at high precision bounds over the traditional approach of using model score alone, highlighting the benefits of leveraging uncertainty.

We study the problem of online prediction, in which at each time step t, an individual x_t arrives, whose label we must predict. Each individual is associated with various groups, defined based on their features such as age, sex, race etc., which may intersect. Our goal is to make predictions that have regret guarantees not just overall but also simultaneously on each sub-sequence comprised of the members of any single group. Previous work such as [Blum & Lykouris] and [Lee et al] provide attractive regret guarantees for these problems; however, these are computationally intractable on large model classes. We show that a simple modification of the sleeping experts technique of [Blum & Lykouris] yields an efficient reduction to the well-understood problem of obtaining diminishing external regret absent group considerations. Our approach gives similar regret guarantees compared to [Blum & Lykouris]; however, we run in time linear in the number of groups, and are oracle-efficient in the hypothesis class. This in particular implies that our algorithm is efficient whenever the number of groups is polynomially bounded and the external-regret problem can be solved efficiently, an improvement on [Blum & Lykouris]'s stronger condition that the model class must be small. Our approach can handle online linear regression and online combinatorial optimization problems like online shortest paths. Beyond providing theoretical regret bounds, we evaluate this algorithm with an extensive set of experiments on synthetic data and on two real data sets -- Medical costs and the Adult income dataset, both instantiated with intersecting groups defined in terms of race, sex, and other demographic characteristics. We find that uniformly across groups, our algorithm gives substantial error improvements compared to running a standard online linear regression algorithm with no groupwise regret guarantees.

Automated classification of metadata of research data by their discipline(s) of research can be used in scientometric research, by repository service providers, and in the context of research data aggregation services. Openly available metadata of the DataCite index for research data were used to compile a large training and evaluation set comprised of 609,524 records, which is published alongside this paper. These data allow to reproducibly assess classification approaches, such as tree-based models and neural networks. According to our experiments with 20 base classes (multi-label classification), multi-layer perceptron models perform best with a f1-macro score of 0.760 closely followed by Long Short-Term Memory models (f1-macro score of 0.755). A possible application of the trained classification models is the quantitative analysis of trends towards interdisciplinarity of digital scholarly output or the characterization of growth patterns of research data, stratified by discipline of research. Both applications perform at scale with the proposed models which are available for re-use.

Machine learning (ML)-based weather models have rapidly risen to prominence due to their greater accuracy and speed than traditional forecasts based on numerical weather prediction (NWP), recently outperforming traditional ensembles in global probabilistic weather forecasting. This paper presents FGN, a simple, scalable and flexible modeling approach which significantly outperforms the current state-of-the-art models. FGN generates ensembles via learned model-perturbations with an ensemble of appropriately constrained models. It is trained directly to minimize the continuous rank probability score (CRPS) of per-location forecasts. It produces state-of-the-art ensemble forecasts as measured by a range of deterministic and probabilistic metrics, makes skillful ensemble tropical cyclone track predictions, and captures joint spatial structure despite being trained only on marginals.

The impact of person-job fit on job satisfaction and performance is widely acknowledged, which highlights the importance of providing workers with next steps at the right time in their career. This task of predicting the next step in a career is known as career path prediction, and has diverse applications such as turnover prevention and internal job mobility. Existing methods to career path prediction rely on large amounts of private career history data to model the interactions between job titles and companies. We propose leveraging the unexplored textual descriptions that are part of work experience sections in resumes. We introduce a structured dataset of 2,164 anonymized career histories, annotated with ESCO occupation labels. Based on this dataset, we present a novel representation learning approach, CareerBERT, specifically designed for work history data. We develop a skill-based model and a text-based model for career path prediction, which achieve 35.24% and 39.61% recall@10 respectively on our dataset. Finally, we show that both approaches are complementary as a hybrid approach achieves the strongest result with 43.01% recall@10.

Probabilistic forecasting is crucial to decision-making under uncertainty about future weather. The dominant approach is to use an ensemble of forecasts to represent and quantify uncertainty in operational numerical weather prediction. However, generating ensembles is computationally costly. In this paper, we propose to generate ensemble forecasts at scale by leveraging recent advances in generative artificial intelligence. Our approach learns a data-driven probabilistic diffusion model from the 5-member ensemble GEFS reforecast dataset. The model can then be sampled efficiently to produce realistic weather forecasts, conditioned on a few members of the operational GEFS forecasting system. The generated ensembles have similar predictive skill as the full GEFS 31-member ensemble, evaluated against ERA5 reanalysis, and emulate well the statistics of large physics-based ensembles. We also apply the same methodology to developing a diffusion model for generative post-processing: the model directly learns to correct biases present in the emulated forecasting system by leveraging reanalysis data as labels during training. Ensembles from this generative post-processing model show greater reliability and accuracy, particularly in extreme event classification. In general, they are more reliable and forecast the probability of extreme weather more accurately than the GEFS operational ensemble. Our models achieve these results at less than 1/10th of the computational cost incurred by the operational GEFS system.

Record companies invest billions of dollars in new talent around the globe each year. Gaining insight into what actually makes a hit song would provide tremendous benefits for the music industry. In this research we tackle this question by focussing on the dance hit song classification problem. A database of dance hit songs from 1985 until 2013 is built, including basic musical features, as well as more advanced features that capture a temporal aspect. A number of different classifiers are used to build and test dance hit prediction models. The resulting best model has a good performance when predicting whether a song is a "top 10" dance hit versus a lower listed position.

Generalized category discovery (GCD) is a pragmatic but underexplored problem, which requires models to automatically cluster and discover novel categories by leveraging the labeled samples from old classes. The challenge is that unlabeled data contain both old and new classes. Early works leveraging pseudo-labeling with parametric classifiers handle old and new classes separately, which brings about imbalanced accuracy between them. Recent methods employing contrastive learning neglect potential positives and are decoupled from the clustering objective, leading to biased representations and sub-optimal results. To address these issues, we introduce a unified and unbiased prototype learning framework, namely ProtoGCD, wherein old and new classes are modeled with joint prototypes and unified learning objectives, {enabling unified modeling between old and new classes}. Specifically, we propose a dual-level adaptive pseudo-labeling mechanism to mitigate confirmation bias, together with two regularization terms to collectively help learn more suitable representations for GCD. Moreover, for practical considerations, we devise a criterion to estimate the number of new classes. Furthermore, we extend ProtoGCD to detect unseen outliers, achieving task-level unification. Comprehensive experiments show that ProtoGCD achieves state-of-the-art performance on both generic and fine-grained datasets. The code is available at https://github.com/mashijie1028/ProtoGCD.

Class-incremental learning is becoming more popular as it helps models widen their applicability while not forgetting what they already know. A trend in this area is to use a mixture-of-expert technique, where different models work together to solve the task. However, the experts are usually trained all at once using whole task data, which makes them all prone to forgetting and increasing computational burden. To address this limitation, we introduce a novel approach named SEED. SEED selects only one, the most optimal expert for a considered task, and uses data from this task to fine-tune only this expert. For this purpose, each expert represents each class with a Gaussian distribution, and the optimal expert is selected based on the similarity of those distributions. Consequently, SEED increases diversity and heterogeneity within the experts while maintaining the high stability of this ensemble method. The extensive experiments demonstrate that SEED achieves state-of-the-art performance in exemplar-free settings across various scenarios, showing the potential of expert diversification through data in continual learning.

International trade policies have recently garnered attention for limiting cross-border exchange of essential goods (e.g. steel, aluminum, soybeans, and beef). Since trade critically affects employment and wages, predicting future patterns of trade is a high-priority for policy makers around the world. While traditional economic models aim to be reliable predictors, we consider the possibility that Machine Learning (ML) techniques allow for better predictions to inform policy decisions. Open-government data provide the fuel to power the algorithms that can explain and forecast trade flows to inform policies. Data collected in this article describe international trade transactions and commonly associated economic factors. Machine learning (ML) models deployed include: ARIMA, GBoosting, XGBoosting, and LightGBM for predicting future trade patterns, and K-Means clustering of countries according to economic factors. Unlike short-term and subjective (straight-line) projections and medium-term (aggre-gated) projections, ML methods provide a range of data-driven and interpretable projections for individual commodities. Models, their results, and policies are introduced and evaluated for prediction quality.

To reduce the overwhelming size of Deep Neural Networks (DNN) teacher-student methodology tries to transfer knowledge from a complex teacher network to a simple student network. We instead propose a novel method called the teacher-class network consisting of a single teacher and multiple student networks (i.e. class of students). Instead of transferring knowledge to one student only, the proposed method transfers a chunk of knowledge to each student. Our students are not trained for problem-specific logits, they are trained to mimic knowledge (dense representation) learned by the teacher network thus the combined knowledge learned by the class of students can be used to solve other problems as well. The proposed teacher-class architecture is evaluated on several benchmark datasets such as MNIST, Fashion MNIST, IMDB Movie Reviews, CAMVid, CIFAR-10 and ImageNet on multiple tasks including image classification, sentiment classification and segmentation. Our approach outperforms the state of-the-art single student approach in terms of accuracy as well as computational cost while achieving 10-30 times reduction in parameters.

Designing robust and accurate predictive models for stock price prediction has been an active area of research for a long time. While on one side, the supporters of the efficient market hypothesis claim that it is impossible to forecast stock prices accurately, many researchers believe otherwise. There exist propositions in the literature that have demonstrated that if properly designed and optimized, predictive models can very accurately and reliably predict future values of stock prices. This paper presents a suite of deep learning based models for stock price prediction. We use the historical records of the NIFTY 50 index listed in the National Stock Exchange of India, during the period from December 29, 2008 to July 31, 2020, for training and testing the models. Our proposition includes two regression models built on convolutional neural networks and three long and short term memory network based predictive models. To forecast the open values of the NIFTY 50 index records, we adopted a multi step prediction technique with walk forward validation. In this approach, the open values of the NIFTY 50 index are predicted on a time horizon of one week, and once a week is over, the actual index values are included in the training set before the model is trained again, and the forecasts for the next week are made. We present detailed results on the forecasting accuracies for all our proposed models. The results show that while all the models are very accurate in forecasting the NIFTY 50 open values, the univariate encoder decoder convolutional LSTM with the previous two weeks data as the input is the most accurate model. On the other hand, a univariate CNN model with previous one week data as the input is found to be the fastest model in terms of its execution speed.

Data-driven optimization uses contextual information and machine learning algorithms to find solutions to decision problems with uncertain parameters. While a vast body of work is dedicated to interpreting machine learning models in the classification setting, explaining decision pipelines involving learning algorithms remains unaddressed. This lack of interpretability can block the adoption of data-driven solutions as practitioners may not understand or trust the recommended decisions. We bridge this gap by introducing a counterfactual explanation methodology tailored to explain solutions to data-driven problems. We introduce two classes of explanations and develop methods to find nearest explanations of random forest and nearest-neighbor predictors. We demonstrate our approach by explaining key problems in operations management such as inventory management and routing.

Supervised learning datasets may contain multiple cues that explain the training set equally well, i.e., learning any of them would lead to the correct predictions on the training data. However, many of them can be spurious, i.e., lose their predictive power under a distribution shift and consequently fail to generalize to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Recently developed "diversification" methods (Lee et al., 2023; Pagliardini et al., 2023) approach this problem by finding multiple diverse hypotheses that rely on different features. This paper aims to study this class of methods and identify the key components contributing to their OOD generalization abilities. We show that (1) diversification methods are highly sensitive to the distribution of the unlabeled data used for diversification and can underperform significantly when away from a method-specific sweet spot. (2) Diversification alone is insufficient for OOD generalization. The choice of the used learning algorithm, e.g., the model's architecture and pretraining, is crucial. In standard experiments (classification on Waterbirds and Office-Home datasets), using the second-best choice leads to an up to 20\% absolute drop in accuracy. (3) The optimal choice of learning algorithm depends on the unlabeled data and vice versa i.e. they are co-dependent. (4) Finally, we show that, in practice, the above pitfalls cannot be alleviated by increasing the number of diverse hypotheses, the major feature of diversification methods. These findings provide a clearer understanding of the critical design factors influencing the OOD generalization abilities of diversification methods. They can guide practitioners in how to use the existing methods best and guide researchers in developing new, better ones.

Given the clinical notes written in electronic health records (EHRs), it is challenging to predict the diagnostic codes which is formulated as a multi-label classification task. The large set of labels, the hierarchical dependency, and the imbalanced data make this prediction task extremely hard. Most existing work built a binary prediction for each label independently, ignoring the dependencies between labels. To address this problem, we propose a two-stage framework to improve automatic ICD coding by capturing the label correlation. Specifically, we train a label set distribution estimator to rescore the probability of each label set candidate generated by a base predictor. This paper is the first attempt at learning the label set distribution as a reranking module for medical code prediction. In the experiments, our proposed framework is able to improve upon best-performing predictors on the benchmark MIMIC datasets. The source code of this project is available at https://github.com/MiuLab/ICD-Correlation.

stream-learn is a Python package compatible with scikit-learn and developed for the drifting and imbalanced data stream analysis. Its main component is a stream generator, which allows to produce a synthetic data stream that may incorporate each of the three main concept drift types (i.e. sudden, gradual and incremental drift) in their recurring or non-recurring versions. The package allows conducting experiments following established evaluation methodologies (i.e. Test-Then-Train and Prequential). In addition, estimators adapted for data stream classification have been implemented, including both simple classifiers and state-of-art chunk-based and online classifier ensembles. To improve computational efficiency, package utilises its own implementations of prediction metrics for imbalanced binary classification tasks.

Within the field of causal inference, we consider the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from data. We propose and validate a novel approach for learning feature representations to aid the estimation of the conditional average treatment effect or CATE. Our method focuses on an intermediate layer in a neural network trained to predict the outcome from the features. In contrast to previous approaches that encourage the distribution of representations to be treatment-invariant, we leverage a genetic algorithm that optimizes over representations useful for predicting the outcome to select those less useful for predicting the treatment. This allows us to retain information within the features useful for predicting outcome even if that information may be related to treatment assignment. We validate our method on synthetic examples and illustrate its use on a real life dataset.

Often we wish to predict a large number of variables that depend on each other as well as on other observed variables. Structured prediction methods are essentially a combination of classification and graphical modeling, combining the ability of graphical models to compactly model multivariate data with the ability of classification methods to perform prediction using large sets of input features. This tutorial describes conditional random fields, a popular probabilistic method for structured prediction. CRFs have seen wide application in natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics. We describe methods for inference and parameter estimation for CRFs, including practical issues for implementing large scale CRFs. We do not assume previous knowledge of graphical modeling, so this tutorial is intended to be useful to practitioners in a wide variety of fields.

While scaling laws provide a reliable methodology for predicting train loss across compute scales for a single data distribution, less is known about how these predictions should change as we change the distribution. In this paper, we derive a strategy for predicting one loss from another and apply it to predict across different pre-training datasets and from pre-training data to downstream task data. Our predictions extrapolate well even at 20x the largest FLOP budget used to fit the curves. More precisely, we find that there are simple shifted power law relationships between (1) the train losses of two models trained on two separate datasets when the models are paired by training compute (train-to-train), (2) the train loss and the test loss on any downstream distribution for a single model (train-to-test), and (3) the test losses of two models trained on two separate train datasets (test-to-test). The results hold up for pre-training datasets that differ substantially (some are entirely code and others have no code at all) and across a variety of downstream tasks. Finally, we find that in some settings these shifted power law relationships can yield more accurate predictions than extrapolating single-dataset scaling laws.

Existing long-tailed recognition methods, aiming to train class-balanced models from long-tailed data, generally assume the models would be evaluated on the uniform test class distribution. However, practical test class distributions often violate this assumption (e.g., being either long-tailed or even inversely long-tailed), which may lead existing methods to fail in real applications. In this paper, we study a more practical yet challenging task, called test-agnostic long-tailed recognition, where the training class distribution is long-tailed while the test class distribution is agnostic and not necessarily uniform. In addition to the issue of class imbalance, this task poses another challenge: the class distribution shift between the training and test data is unknown. To tackle this task, we propose a novel approach, called Self-supervised Aggregation of Diverse Experts, which consists of two strategies: (i) a new skill-diverse expert learning strategy that trains multiple experts from a single and stationary long-tailed dataset to separately handle different class distributions; (ii) a novel test-time expert aggregation strategy that leverages self-supervision to aggregate the learned multiple experts for handling unknown test class distributions. We theoretically show that our self-supervised strategy has a provable ability to simulate test-agnostic class distributions. Promising empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on both vanilla and test-agnostic long-tailed recognition. Code is available at https://github.com/Vanint/SADE-AgnosticLT.

Generalization to out-of-distribution (OOD) data is a critical challenge in machine learning. Ensemble-based methods, like weight space ensembles that interpolate model parameters, have been shown to achieve superior OOD performance. However, the underlying mechanism for their effectiveness remains unclear. In this study, we closely examine WiSE-FT, a popular weight space ensemble method that interpolates between a pre-trained and a fine-tuned model. We observe an unexpected phenomenon, in which WiSE-FT successfully corrects many cases where each individual model makes incorrect predictions, which contributes significantly to its OOD effectiveness. To gain further insights, we conduct theoretical analysis in a multi-class setting with a large number of spurious features. Our analysis predicts the above phenomenon and it further shows that ensemble-based models reduce prediction errors in the OOD settings by utilizing a more diverse set of spurious features. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that focuses on learning invariant features for better OOD performance, our findings suggest that incorporating a large number of diverse spurious features weakens their individual contributions, leading to improved overall OOD generalization performance. Empirically we demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing diverse spurious features on a MultiColorMNIST dataset, and our experimental results are consistent with the theoretical analysis. Building upon the new theoretical insights into the efficacy of ensemble methods, we further identify an issue of WiSE-FT caused by the overconfidence of fine-tuned models in OOD situations. This overconfidence magnifies the fine-tuned model's incorrect prediction, leading to deteriorated OOD ensemble performance. To remedy this problem, we propose a novel method called BAlaNced averaGing (BANG), which significantly enhances the OOD performance of WiSE-FT.

Language model pretraining involves training on extensive corpora, where data quality plays a pivotal role. In this work, we aim to directly estimate the contribution of data during pretraining and select pretraining data in an efficient manner. Specifically, we draw inspiration from recent findings showing that compression efficiency (i.e., the normalized loss) of diverse models on certain text correlates strongly with their downstream performance, when the text domain aligns with the downstream benchmark (Huang et al., 2024). Building on this observation, we hypothesize that data on which model losses are predictive of downstream abilities also contribute effectively to learning. To leverage this insight, we introduce data selection based on data's Predictive strength (Preselect), a lightweight and efficient data selection method that requires training and deploying only a fastText-based scorer. Through comprehensive experiments with 1B and 3B parameter models, we demonstrate that models trained on 30B tokens selected with PreSelect surpasses the performance of a vanilla baseline trained on 300B tokens, achieving a 10x reduction in compute requirements. Furthermore, PreSelect significantly outperforms other competitive data selection baselines, such as DCLM and FineWeb-Edu on a scale of 3B models trained on 100B tokens. We open-source our trained data selection scorer along with the curated datasets at https://github.com/hkust-nlp/PreSelect.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has always been a challenging task for the researchers. While the advocates of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) believe that it is impossible to design any predictive framework that can accurately predict the movement of stock prices, there are seminal work in the literature that have clearly demonstrated that the seemingly random movement patterns in the time series of a stock price can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. Design of such predictive models requires choice of appropriate variables, right transformation methods of the variables, and tuning of the parameters of the models. In this work, we present a very robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction that consists of an agglomeration of statistical, machine learning and deep learning models. We use the daily stock price data, collected at five minutes interval of time, of a very well known company that is listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The granular data is aggregated into three slots in a day, and the aggregated data is used for building and training the forecasting models. We contend that the agglomerative approach of model building that uses a combination of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning approaches, can very effectively learn from the volatile and random movement patterns in a stock price data. We build eight classification and eight regression models based on statistical and machine learning approaches. In addition to these models, a deep learning regression model using a long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) network is also built. Extensive results have been presented on the performance of these models, and the results are critically analyzed.

Classic results establish that encouraging predictive diversity improves performance in ensembles of low-capacity models, e.g. through bagging or boosting. Here we demonstrate that these intuitions do not apply to high-capacity neural network ensembles (deep ensembles), and in fact the opposite is often true. In a large scale study of nearly 600 neural network classification ensembles, we examine a variety of interventions that trade off component model performance for predictive diversity. While such interventions can improve the performance of small neural network ensembles (in line with standard intuitions), they harm the performance of the large neural network ensembles most often used in practice. Surprisingly, we also find that discouraging predictive diversity is often benign in large-network ensembles, fully inverting standard intuitions. Even when diversity-promoting interventions do not sacrifice component model performance (e.g. using heterogeneous architectures and training paradigms), we observe an opportunity cost associated with pursuing increased predictive diversity. Examining over 1000 ensembles, we observe that the performance benefits of diverse architectures/training procedures are easily dwarfed by the benefits of simply using higher-capacity models, despite the fact that such higher capacity models often yield significantly less predictive diversity. Overall, our findings demonstrate that standard intuitions around predictive diversity, originally developed for low-capacity ensembles, do not directly apply to modern high-capacity deep ensembles. This work clarifies fundamental challenges to the goal of improving deep ensembles by making them more diverse, while suggesting an alternative path: simply forming ensembles from ever more powerful (and less diverse) component models.

Current scene graph datasets suffer from strong long-tail distributions of their predicate classes. Due to a very low number of some predicate classes in the test sets, no reliable metrics can be retrieved for the rarest classes. We construct a new panoptic scene graph dataset and a set of metrics that are designed as a benchmark for the predictive performance especially on rare predicate classes. To construct the new dataset, we propose a model-assisted annotation pipeline that efficiently finds rare predicate classes that are hidden in a large set of images like needles in a haystack. Contrary to prior scene graph datasets, Haystack contains explicit negative annotations, i.e. annotations that a given relation does not have a certain predicate class. Negative annotations are helpful especially in the field of scene graph generation and open up a whole new set of possibilities to improve current scene graph generation models. Haystack is 100% compatible with existing panoptic scene graph datasets and can easily be integrated with existing evaluation pipelines. Our dataset and code can be found here: https://lorjul.github.io/haystack/. It includes annotation files and simple to use scripts and utilities, to help with integrating our dataset in existing work.

Conformal Prediction (CP) controls the prediction uncertainty of classification systems by producing a small prediction set, ensuring a predetermined probability that the true class lies within this set. This is commonly done by defining a score, based on the model predictions, and setting a threshold on this score using a validation set. In this study, we address the problem of CP calibration when we only have access to a calibration set with noisy labels. We show how we can estimate the noise-free conformal threshold based on the noisy labeled data. We derive a finite sample coverage guarantee for uniform noise that remains effective even in tasks with a large number of classes. We dub our approach Noise-Aware Conformal Prediction (NACP). We illustrate the performance of the proposed results on several standard image classification datasets with a large number of classes.

Class imbalance is a common challenge in real-world recognition tasks, where the majority of classes have few samples, also known as tail classes. We address this challenge with the perspective of generalization and empirically find that the promising Sharpness-Aware Minimization (SAM) fails to address generalization issues under the class-imbalanced setting. Through investigating this specific type of task, we identify that its generalization bottleneck primarily lies in the severe overfitting for tail classes with limited training data. To overcome this bottleneck, we leverage class priors to restrict the generalization scope of the class-agnostic SAM and propose a class-aware smoothness optimization algorithm named Imbalanced-SAM (ImbSAM). With the guidance of class priors, our ImbSAM specifically improves generalization targeting tail classes. We also verify the efficacy of ImbSAM on two prototypical applications of class-imbalanced recognition: long-tailed classification and semi-supervised anomaly detection, where our ImbSAM demonstrates remarkable performance improvements for tail classes and anomaly. Our code implementation is available at https://github.com/cool-xuan/Imbalanced_SAM.

Zero-shot learning (ZSL) aims at understanding unseen categories with no training examples from class-level descriptions. To improve the discriminative power of zero-shot learning, we model the visual learning process of unseen categories with inspiration from the psychology of human creativity for producing novel art. We relate ZSL to human creativity by observing that zero-shot learning is about recognizing the unseen and creativity is about creating a likable unseen. We introduce a learning signal inspired by creativity literature that explores the unseen space with hallucinated class-descriptions and encourages careful deviation of their visual feature generations from seen classes while allowing knowledge transfer from seen to unseen classes. Empirically, we show consistent improvement over the state of the art of several percents on the largest available benchmarks on the challenging task or generalized ZSL from a noisy text that we focus on, using the CUB and NABirds datasets. We also show the advantage of our approach on Attribute-based ZSL on three additional datasets (AwA2, aPY, and SUN). Code is available.

Accumulation of corporate data in the cloud has attracted more enterprise applications to the cloud creating data gravity. As a consequence, network traffic has become more cloud centric. This increase in cloud centric traffic poses new challenges in designing learning systems for streaming data due to class imbalance. The number of classes plays a vital role in the accuracy of the classifiers built from the data streams. In this paper, we present a vector quantization-based sampling method, which substantially reduces the class imbalance in data streams. We demonstrate its effectiveness by conducting experiments on network traffic and anomaly dataset with commonly used ML model building methods; Multilayered Perceptron on TensorFlow backend, Support Vector Machines, K-Nearest Neighbour, and Random Forests. We built models using parallel processing, batch processing, and randomly selecting samples. We show that the accuracy of classification models improves when the data streams are pre-processed with our method. We used out of the box hyper-parameters of these classifiers and auto sklearn for hyperparameter optimization.

We introduce a pattern mining framework that operates on semi-structured datasets and exploits the dichotomy between outcomes. Our approach takes advantage of constraint reasoning to find sequential patterns that occur frequently and exhibit desired properties. This allows the creation of novel pattern embeddings that are useful for knowledge extraction and predictive modeling. Finally, we present an application on customer intent prediction from digital clickstream data. Overall, we show that pattern embeddings play an integrator role between semi-structured data and machine learning models, improve the performance of the downstream task and retain interpretability.

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

Solving complex classification tasks using deep neural networks typically requires large amounts of annotated data. However, corresponding class labels are noisy when provided by error-prone annotators, e.g., crowd workers. Training standard deep neural networks leads to subpar performances in such multi-annotator supervised learning settings. We address this issue by presenting a probabilistic training framework named multi-annotator deep learning (MaDL). A ground truth and an annotator performance model are jointly trained in an end-to-end learning approach. The ground truth model learns to predict instances' true class labels, while the annotator performance model infers probabilistic estimates of annotators' performances. A modular network architecture enables us to make varying assumptions regarding annotators' performances, e.g., an optional class or instance dependency. Further, we learn annotator embeddings to estimate annotators' densities within a latent space as proxies of their potentially correlated annotations. Together with a weighted loss function, we improve the learning from correlated annotation patterns. In a comprehensive evaluation, we examine three research questions about multi-annotator supervised learning. Our findings indicate MaDL's state-of-the-art performance and robustness against many correlated, spamming annotators.

Jet tagging is a critical yet challenging classification task in particle physics. While deep learning has transformed jet tagging and significantly improved performance, the lack of a large-scale public dataset impedes further enhancement. In this work, we present JetClass, a new comprehensive dataset for jet tagging. The JetClass dataset consists of 100 M jets, about two orders of magnitude larger than existing public datasets. A total of 10 types of jets are simulated, including several types unexplored for tagging so far. Based on the large dataset, we propose a new Transformer-based architecture for jet tagging, called Particle Transformer (ParT). By incorporating pairwise particle interactions in the attention mechanism, ParT achieves higher tagging performance than a plain Transformer and surpasses the previous state-of-the-art, ParticleNet, by a large margin. The pre-trained ParT models, once fine-tuned, also substantially enhance the performance on two widely adopted jet tagging benchmarks. The dataset, code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/jet-universe/particle_transformer.

Time series has been left behind in the era of pre-training and transfer learning. While research in the fields of natural language processing and computer vision are enjoying progressively larger datasets to train massive models, the most popular time series datasets consist of only tens of thousands of time steps, limiting our ability to study the effectiveness of pre-training and scaling. Recent studies have also cast doubt on the need for expressive models and scale. To alleviate these issues, we introduce three large-scale time series forecasting datasets from the cloud operations (CloudOps) domain, the largest having billions of observations, enabling further study into pre-training and scaling of time series models. We build the empirical groundwork for studying pre-training and scaling of time series models and pave the way for future research by identifying a promising candidate architecture. We show that it is a strong zero-shot baseline and benefits from further scaling, both in model and dataset size. Accompanying these datasets and results is a suite of comprehensive benchmark results comparing classical and deep learning baselines to our pre-trained method - achieving a 27% reduction in error on the largest dataset. Code and datasets will be released.

Developers rely on code comments to document their work, track issues, and understand the source code. As such, comments provide valuable insights into developers' understanding of their code and describe their various intentions in writing the surrounding code. Recent research leverages natural language processing and deep learning to classify comments based on developers' intentions. However, such labelled data are often imbalanced, causing learning models to perform poorly. This work investigates the use of different weighting strategies of the loss function to mitigate the scarcity of certain classes in the dataset. In particular, various RoBERTa-based transformer models are fine-tuned by means of a hyperparameter search to identify their optimal parameter configurations. Additionally, we fine-tuned the transformers with different weighting strategies for the loss function to address class imbalances. Our approach outperforms the STACC baseline by 8.9 per cent on the NLBSE'25 Tool Competition dataset in terms of the average F1_c score, and exceeding the baseline approach in 17 out of 19 cases with a gain ranging from -5.0 to 38.2. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/moritzmock/NLBSE2025.

Many real-world scenarios in which DNN-based recognition systems are deployed have inherently fine-grained attributes (e.g., bird-species recognition, medical image classification). In addition to achieving reliable accuracy, a critical subtask for these models is to detect Out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. Given the nature of the deployment environment, one may expect such OOD inputs to also be fine-grained w.r.t. the known classes (e.g., a novel bird species), which are thus extremely difficult to identify. Unfortunately, OOD detection in fine-grained scenarios remains largely underexplored. In this work, we aim to fill this gap by first carefully constructing four large-scale fine-grained test environments, in which existing methods are shown to have difficulties. Particularly, we find that even explicitly incorporating a diverse set of auxiliary outlier data during training does not provide sufficient coverage over the broad region where fine-grained OOD samples locate. We then propose Mixture Outlier Exposure (MixOE), which mixes ID data and training outliers to expand the coverage of different OOD granularities, and trains the model such that the prediction confidence linearly decays as the input transitions from ID to OOD. Extensive experiments and analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of MixOE for building up OOD detector in fine-grained environments. The code is available at https://github.com/zjysteven/MixOE.

We consider the two related problems of detecting if an example is misclassified or out-of-distribution. We present a simple baseline that utilizes probabilities from softmax distributions. Correctly classified examples tend to have greater maximum softmax probabilities than erroneously classified and out-of-distribution examples, allowing for their detection. We assess performance by defining several tasks in computer vision, natural language processing, and automatic speech recognition, showing the effectiveness of this baseline across all. We then show the baseline can sometimes be surpassed, demonstrating the room for future research on these underexplored detection tasks.

Data of sequential nature arise in many application domains in forms of, e.g. textual data, DNA sequences, and software execution traces. Different research disciplines have developed methods to learn sequence models from such datasets: (i) in the machine learning field methods such as (hidden) Markov models and recurrent neural networks have been developed and successfully applied to a wide-range of tasks, (ii) in process mining process discovery techniques aim to generate human-interpretable descriptive models, and (iii) in the grammar inference field the focus is on finding descriptive models in the form of formal grammars. Despite their different focuses, these fields share a common goal - learning a model that accurately describes the behavior in the underlying data. Those sequence models are generative, i.e, they can predict what elements are likely to occur after a given unfinished sequence. So far, these fields have developed mainly in isolation from each other and no comparison exists. This paper presents an interdisciplinary experimental evaluation that compares sequence modeling techniques on the task of next-element prediction on four real-life sequence datasets. The results indicate that machine learning techniques that generally have no aim at interpretability in terms of accuracy outperform techniques from the process mining and grammar inference fields that aim to yield interpretable models.

CLIP-based classifiers rely on the prompt containing a {class name} that is known to the text encoder. Therefore, they perform poorly on new classes or the classes whose names rarely appear on the Internet (e.g., scientific names of birds). For fine-grained classification, we propose PEEB - an explainable and editable classifier to (1) express the class name into a set of text descriptors that describe the visual parts of that class; and (2) match the embeddings of the detected parts to their textual descriptors in each class to compute a logit score for classification. In a zero-shot setting where the class names are unknown, PEEB outperforms CLIP by a huge margin (~10x in top-1 accuracy). Compared to part-based classifiers, PEEB is not only the state-of-the-art (SOTA) on the supervised-learning setting (88.80% and 92.20% accuracy on CUB-200 and Dogs-120, respectively) but also the first to enable users to edit the text descriptors to form a new classifier without any re-training. Compared to concept bottleneck models, PEEB is also the SOTA in both zero-shot and supervised-learning settings.

This paper surveys and organizes research works in a new paradigm in natural language processing, which we dub "prompt-based learning". Unlike traditional supervised learning, which trains a model to take in an input x and predict an output y as P(y|x), prompt-based learning is based on language models that model the probability of text directly. To use these models to perform prediction tasks, the original input x is modified using a template into a textual string prompt x' that has some unfilled slots, and then the language model is used to probabilistically fill the unfilled information to obtain a final string x, from which the final output y can be derived. This framework is powerful and attractive for a number of reasons: it allows the language model to be pre-trained on massive amounts of raw text, and by defining a new prompting function the model is able to perform few-shot or even zero-shot learning, adapting to new scenarios with few or no labeled data. In this paper we introduce the basics of this promising paradigm, describe a unified set of mathematical notations that can cover a wide variety of existing work, and organize existing work along several dimensions, e.g.the choice of pre-trained models, prompts, and tuning strategies. To make the field more accessible to interested beginners, we not only make a systematic review of existing works and a highly structured typology of prompt-based concepts, but also release other resources, e.g., a website http://pretrain.nlpedia.ai/ including constantly-updated survey, and paperlist.

Skill Classification (SC) is the task of classifying job competences from job postings. This work is the first in SC applied to Danish job vacancy data. We release the first Danish job posting dataset: Kompetencer (en: competences), annotated for nested spans of competences. To improve upon coarse-grained annotations, we make use of The European Skills, Competences, Qualifications and Occupations (ESCO; le Vrang et al., 2014) taxonomy API to obtain fine-grained labels via distant supervision. We study two setups: The zero-shot and few-shot classification setting. We fine-tune English-based models and RemBERT (Chung et al., 2020) and compare them to in-language Danish models. Our results show RemBERT significantly outperforms all other models in both the zero-shot and the few-shot setting.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

Sequences have become first class citizens in supervised learning thanks to the resurgence of recurrent neural networks. Many complex tasks that require mapping from or to a sequence of observations can now be formulated with the sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) framework which employs the chain rule to efficiently represent the joint probability of sequences. In many cases, however, variable sized inputs and/or outputs might not be naturally expressed as sequences. For instance, it is not clear how to input a set of numbers into a model where the task is to sort them; similarly, we do not know how to organize outputs when they correspond to random variables and the task is to model their unknown joint probability. In this paper, we first show using various examples that the order in which we organize input and/or output data matters significantly when learning an underlying model. We then discuss an extension of the seq2seq framework that goes beyond sequences and handles input sets in a principled way. In addition, we propose a loss which, by searching over possible orders during training, deals with the lack of structure of output sets. We show empirical evidence of our claims regarding ordering, and on the modifications to the seq2seq framework on benchmark language modeling and parsing tasks, as well as two artificial tasks -- sorting numbers and estimating the joint probability of unknown graphical models.

Recent research has repeatedly shown that machine learning techniques can be applied to either whole files or file fragments to classify them for analysis. We build upon these techniques to show that for samples of un-labeled compiled computer object code, one can apply the same type of analysis to classify important aspects of the code, such as its target architecture and endianess. We show that using simple byte-value histograms we retain enough information about the opcodes within a sample to classify the target architecture with high accuracy, and then discuss heuristic-based features that exploit information within the operands to determine endianess. We introduce a dataset with over 16000 code samples from 20 architectures and experimentally show that by using our features, classifiers can achieve very high accuracy with relatively small sample sizes.

Over the past decade, machine learning has revolutionized computers' ability to analyze text through flexible computational models. Due to their structural similarity to written language, transformer-based architectures have also shown promise as tools to make sense of a range of multi-variate sequences from protein-structures, music, electronic health records to weather-forecasts. We can also represent human lives in a way that shares this structural similarity to language. From one perspective, lives are simply sequences of events: People are born, visit the pediatrician, start school, move to a new location, get married, and so on. Here, we exploit this similarity to adapt innovations from natural language processing to examine the evolution and predictability of human lives based on detailed event sequences. We do this by drawing on arguably the most comprehensive registry data in existence, available for an entire nation of more than six million individuals across decades. Our data include information about life-events related to health, education, occupation, income, address, and working hours, recorded with day-to-day resolution. We create embeddings of life-events in a single vector space showing that this embedding space is robust and highly structured. Our models allow us to predict diverse outcomes ranging from early mortality to personality nuances, outperforming state-of-the-art models by a wide margin. Using methods for interpreting deep learning models, we probe the algorithm to understand the factors that enable our predictions. Our framework allows researchers to identify new potential mechanisms that impact life outcomes and associated possibilities for personalized interventions.

TabPFN [Hollmann et al., 2023], a Transformer model pretrained to perform in-context learning on fresh tabular classification problems, was presented at the last ICLR conference. To better understand its behavior, we treat it as a black-box function approximator generator and observe its generated function approximations on a varied selection of training datasets. Exploring its learned inductive biases in this manner, we observe behavior that is at turns either brilliant or baffling. We conclude this post with thoughts on how these results might inform the development, evaluation, and application of prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) in the future.

Reverse derivative categories (RDCs) have recently been shown to be a suitable semantic framework for studying machine learning algorithms. Whereas emphasis has been put on training methodologies, less attention has been devoted to particular model classes: the concrete categories whose morphisms represent machine learning models. In this paper we study presentations by generators and equations of classes of RDCs. In particular, we propose polynomial circuits as a suitable machine learning model. We give an axiomatisation for these circuits and prove a functional completeness result. Finally, we discuss the use of polynomial circuits over specific semirings to perform machine learning with discrete values.

Recent advancements in data-driven weather forecasting models have delivered deterministic models that outperform the leading operational forecast systems based on traditional, physics-based models. However, these data-driven models are typically trained with a mean squared error loss function, which causes smoothing of fine scales through a "double penalty" effect. We develop a simple, parameter-free modification to this loss function that avoids this problem by separating the loss attributable to decorrelation from the loss attributable to spectral amplitude errors. Fine-tuning the GraphCast model with this new loss function results in sharp deterministic weather forecasts, an increase of the model's effective resolution from 1,250km to 160km, improvements to ensemble spread, and improvements to predictions of tropical cyclone strength and surface wind extremes.

Zero-shot learning relies on semantic class representations such as hand-engineered attributes or learned embeddings to predict classes without any labeled examples. We propose to learn class representations by embedding nodes from common sense knowledge graphs in a vector space. Common sense knowledge graphs are an untapped source of explicit high-level knowledge that requires little human effort to apply to a range of tasks. To capture the knowledge in the graph, we introduce ZSL-KG, a general-purpose framework with a novel transformer graph convolutional network (TrGCN) for generating class representations. Our proposed TrGCN architecture computes non-linear combinations of node neighbourhoods. Our results show that ZSL-KG improves over existing WordNet-based methods on five out of six zero-shot benchmark datasets in language and vision.

Given an algorithmic predictor that is accurate on some source population consisting of strategic human decision subjects, will it remain accurate if the population respond to it? In our setting, an agent or a user corresponds to a sample (X,Y) drawn from a distribution D and will face a model h and its classification result h(X). Agents can modify X to adapt to h, which will incur a distribution shift on (X,Y). Our formulation is motivated by applications where the deployed machine learning models are subjected to human agents, and will ultimately face responsive and interactive data distributions. We formalize the discussions of the transferability of a model by studying how the performance of the model trained on the available source distribution (data) would translate to the performance on its induced domain. We provide both upper bounds for the performance gap due to the induced domain shift, as well as lower bounds for the trade-offs that a classifier has to suffer on either the source training distribution or the induced target distribution. We provide further instantiated analysis for two popular domain adaptation settings, including covariate shift and target shift.

An algorithm to estimate the evolution of learning curves on the whole of a training data base, based on the results obtained from a portion and using a functional strategy, is introduced. We approximate iteratively the sought value at the desired time, independently of the learning technique used and once a point in the process, called prediction level, has been passed. The proposal proves to be formally correct with respect to our working hypotheses and includes a reliable proximity condition. This allows the user to fix a convergence threshold with respect to the accuracy finally achievable, which extends the concept of stopping criterion and seems to be effective even in the presence of distorting observations. Our aim is to evaluate the training effort, supporting decision making in order to reduce the need for both human and computational resources during the learning process. The proposal is of interest in at least three operational procedures. The first is the anticipation of accuracy gain, with the purpose of measuring how much work is needed to achieve a certain degree of performance. The second relates the comparison of efficiency between systems at training time, with the objective of completing this task only for the one that best suits our requirements. The prediction of accuracy is also a valuable item of information for customizing systems, since we can estimate in advance the impact of settings on both the performance and the development costs. Using the generation of part-of-speech taggers as an example application, the experimental results are consistent with our expectations.

Prediction problems often admit competing models that perform almost equally well. This effect challenges key assumptions in machine learning when competing models assign conflicting predictions. In this paper, we define predictive multiplicity as the ability of a prediction problem to admit competing models with conflicting predictions. We introduce formal measures to evaluate the severity of predictive multiplicity and develop integer programming tools to compute them exactly for linear classification problems. We apply our tools to measure predictive multiplicity in recidivism prediction problems. Our results show that real-world datasets may admit competing models that assign wildly conflicting predictions, and motivate the need to measure and report predictive multiplicity in model development.

While machine-learned models are now routinely employed to facilitate astronomical inquiry, model inputs tend to be limited to a primary data source (namely images or time series) and, in the more advanced approaches, some metadata. Yet with the growing use of wide-field, multiplexed observational resources, individual sources of interest often have a broad range of observational modes available. Here we construct an astronomical multimodal dataset and propose AstroM^3, a self-supervised pre-training approach that enables a model to learn from multiple modalities simultaneously. Specifically, we extend the CLIP (Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining) model to a trimodal setting, allowing the integration of time-series photometry data, spectra, and astrophysical metadata. In a fine-tuning supervised setting, our results demonstrate that CLIP pre-training improves classification performance for time-series photometry, where accuracy increases from 84.6% to 91.5%. Furthermore, CLIP boosts classification accuracy by up to 12.6% when the availability of labeled data is limited, showing the effectiveness of leveraging larger corpora of unlabeled data. In addition to fine-tuned classification, we can use the trained model in other downstream tasks that are not explicitly contemplated during the construction of the self-supervised model. In particular we show the efficacy of using the learned embeddings for misclassifications identification, similarity search, and anomaly detection. One surprising highlight is the "rediscovery" of Mira subtypes and two Rotational variable subclasses using manifold learning and dimension reduction algorithm. To our knowledge this is the first construction of an n>2 mode model in astronomy. Extensions to n>3 modes is naturally anticipated with this approach.

We propose a deep-learning system -- for the SQuAD2.0 task -- that finds, or indicates the lack of, a correct answer to a question in a context paragraph. Our goal is to learn an ensemble of heterogeneous SQuAD2.0 models that, when blended properly, outperforms the best model in the ensemble per se. We created a stacking ensemble that combines top-N predictions from two models, based on ALBERT and RoBERTa, into a multiclass classification task to pick the best answer out of their predictions. We explored various ensemble configurations, input representations, and model architectures. For evaluation, we examined test-set EM and F1 scores; our best-performing ensemble incorporated a CNN-based meta-model and scored 87.117 and 90.306, respectively -- a relative improvement of 0.55% for EM and 0.61% for F1 scores, compared to the baseline performance of the best model in the ensemble, an ALBERT-based model, at 86.644 for EM and 89.760 for F1.

Many businesses and industries nowadays rely on large quantities of time series data making time series forecasting an important research area. Global forecasting models that are trained across sets of time series have shown a huge potential in providing accurate forecasts compared with the traditional univariate forecasting models that work on isolated series. However, there are currently no comprehensive time series archives for forecasting that contain datasets of time series from similar sources available for the research community to evaluate the performance of new global forecasting algorithms over a wide variety of datasets. In this paper, we present such a comprehensive time series forecasting archive containing 20 publicly available time series datasets from varied domains, with different characteristics in terms of frequency, series lengths, and inclusion of missing values. We also characterise the datasets, and identify similarities and differences among them, by conducting a feature analysis. Furthermore, we present the performance of a set of standard baseline forecasting methods over all datasets across eight error metrics, for the benefit of researchers using the archive to benchmark their forecasting algorithms.

Employing a machine learning approach we predict, up to 24 hours prior, a diagnosis of severe sepsis. Strongly predictive models are possible that use only text reports from the Electronic Health Record (EHR), and omit structured numerical data. Unstructured text alone gives slightly better performance than structured data alone, and the combination further improves performance. We also discuss advantages of using unstructured EHR text for modeling, as compared to structured EHR data.

We propose a novel TACLE (TAsk and CLass-awarE) framework to address the relatively unexplored and challenging problem of exemplar-free semi-supervised class incremental learning. In this scenario, at each new task, the model has to learn new classes from both (few) labeled and unlabeled data without access to exemplars from previous classes. In addition to leveraging the capabilities of pre-trained models, TACLE proposes a novel task-adaptive threshold, thereby maximizing the utilization of the available unlabeled data as incremental learning progresses. Additionally, to enhance the performance of the under-represented classes within each task, we propose a class-aware weighted cross-entropy loss. We also exploit the unlabeled data for classifier alignment, which further enhances the model performance. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets, namely CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and ImageNet-Subset100 demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed TACLE framework. We further showcase its effectiveness when the unlabeled data is imbalanced and also for the extreme case of one labeled example per class.

Zero-shot learning (ZSL) methods have been studied in the unrealistic setting where test data are assumed to come from unseen classes only. In this paper, we advocate studying the problem of generalized zero-shot learning (GZSL) where the test data's class memberships are unconstrained. We show empirically that naively using the classifiers constructed by ZSL approaches does not perform well in the generalized setting. Motivated by this, we propose a simple but effective calibration method that can be used to balance two conflicting forces: recognizing data from seen classes versus those from unseen ones. We develop a performance metric to characterize such a trade-off and examine the utility of this metric in evaluating various ZSL approaches. Our analysis further shows that there is a large gap between the performance of existing approaches and an upper bound established via idealized semantic embeddings, suggesting that improving class semantic embeddings is vital to GZSL.

In this paper, we present our novel systems developed for the SemEval-2024 hallucination detection task. Our investigation spans a range of strategies to compare model predictions with reference standards, encompassing diverse baselines, the refinement of pre-trained encoders through supervised learning, and an ensemble approaches utilizing several high-performing models. Through these explorations, we introduce three distinct methods that exhibit strong performance metrics. To amplify our training data, we generate additional training samples from unlabelled training subset. Furthermore, we provide a detailed comparative analysis of our approaches. Notably, our premier method achieved a commendable 9th place in the competition's model-agnostic track and 17th place in model-aware track, highlighting its effectiveness and potential.

Extreme classification (XC) involves predicting over large numbers of classes (thousands to millions), with real-world applications like news article classification and e-commerce product tagging. The zero-shot version of this task requires generalization to novel classes without additional supervision. In this paper, we develop SemSup-XC, a model that achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot and few-shot performance on three XC datasets derived from legal, e-commerce, and Wikipedia data. To develop SemSup-XC, we use automatically collected semantic class descriptions to represent classes and facilitate generalization through a novel hybrid matching module that matches input instances to class descriptions using a combination of semantic and lexical similarity. Trained with contrastive learning, SemSup-XC significantly outperforms baselines and establishes state-of-the-art performance on all three datasets considered, gaining up to 12 precision points on zero-shot and more than 10 precision points on one-shot tests, with similar gains for recall@10. Our ablation studies highlight the relative importance of our hybrid matching module and automatically collected class descriptions.

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

For a long-time, researchers have been developing a reliable and accurate predictive model for stock price prediction. According to the literature, if predictive models are correctly designed and refined, they can painstakingly and faithfully estimate future stock values. This paper demonstrates a set of time series, econometric, and various learning-based models for stock price prediction. The data of Infosys, ICICI, and SUN PHARMA from the period of January 2004 to December 2019 was used here for training and testing the models to know which model performs best in which sector. One time series model (Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing), one econometric model (ARIMA), two machine Learning models (Random Forest and MARS), and two deep learning-based models (simple RNN and LSTM) have been included in this paper. MARS has been proved to be the best performing machine learning model, while LSTM has proved to be the best performing deep learning model. But overall, for all three sectors - IT (on Infosys data), Banking (on ICICI data), and Health (on SUN PHARMA data), MARS has proved to be the best performing model in sales forecasting.

We present Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), an algorithm for generic probabilistic prediction via gradient boosting. Typical regression models return a point estimate, conditional on covariates, but probabilistic regression models output a full probability distribution over the outcome space, conditional on the covariates. This allows for predictive uncertainty estimation -- crucial in applications like healthcare and weather forecasting. NGBoost generalizes gradient boosting to probabilistic regression by treating the parameters of the conditional distribution as targets for a multiparameter boosting algorithm. Furthermore, we show how the Natural Gradient is required to correct the training dynamics of our multiparameter boosting approach. NGBoost can be used with any base learner, any family of distributions with continuous parameters, and any scoring rule. NGBoost matches or exceeds the performance of existing methods for probabilistic prediction while offering additional benefits in flexibility, scalability, and usability. An open-source implementation is available at github.com/stanfordmlgroup/ngboost.

We introduce TabRepo, a new dataset of tabular model evaluations and predictions. TabRepo contains the predictions and metrics of 1310 models evaluated on 200 classification and regression datasets. We illustrate the benefit of our dataset in multiple ways. First, we show that it allows to perform analysis such as comparing Hyperparameter Optimization against current AutoML systems while also considering ensembling at marginal cost by using precomputed model predictions. Second, we show that our dataset can be readily leveraged to perform transfer-learning. In particular, we show that applying standard transfer-learning techniques allows to outperform current state-of-the-art tabular systems in accuracy, runtime and latency.

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This paper addresses this topic through a series of real-time experiments to quantify the relationship between computational cost and forecast error using meteorological nowcasting as an example use-case. We employ a variety of popular regression techniques (XGBoost, FC-MLP, Transformer, and LSTM) for multi-horizon, short-term forecasting of three variables (temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover) for multiple locations. During a 5-day live experiment, 4000 data sources were streamed for training and inferencing 144 models per hour. These models were parameterized to explore forecast error for two computational cost minimization methods: a novel auto-adaptive data reduction technique (Variance Horizon) and a performance-based concept drift-detection mechanism. Forecast error of all model variations were benchmarked in real-time against a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Performance was assessed using classical and novel evaluation metrics. Results indicate that using the Variance Horizon reduced computational usage by more than 50\%, while increasing between 0-15\% in error. Meanwhile, performance-based retraining reduced computational usage by up to 90\% while also improving forecast error by up to 10\%. Finally, the combination of both the Variance Horizon and performance-based retraining outperformed other model configurations by up to 99.7\% when considering error normalized to computational usage.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

Long-tailed recognition with imbalanced class distribution naturally emerges in practical machine learning applications. Existing methods such as data reweighing, resampling, and supervised contrastive learning enforce the class balance with a price of introducing imbalance between instances of head class and tail class, which may ignore the underlying rich semantic substructures of the former and exaggerate the biases in the latter. We overcome these drawbacks by a novel ``subclass-balancing contrastive learning (SBCL)'' approach that clusters each head class into multiple subclasses of similar sizes as the tail classes and enforce representations to capture the two-layer class hierarchy between the original classes and their subclasses. Since the clustering is conducted in the representation space and updated during the course of training, the subclass labels preserve the semantic substructures of head classes. Meanwhile, it does not overemphasize tail class samples, so each individual instance contribute to the representation learning equally. Hence, our method achieves both the instance- and subclass-balance, while the original class labels are also learned through contrastive learning among subclasses from different classes. We evaluate SBCL over a list of long-tailed benchmark datasets and it achieves the state-of-the-art performance. In addition, we present extensive analyses and ablation studies of SBCL to verify its advantages.

We introduce TimeMCL, a method leveraging the Multiple Choice Learning (MCL) paradigm to forecast multiple plausible time series futures. Our approach employs a neural network with multiple heads and utilizes the Winner-Takes-All (WTA) loss to promote diversity among predictions. MCL has recently gained attention due to its simplicity and ability to address ill-posed and ambiguous tasks. We propose an adaptation of this framework for time-series forecasting, presenting it as an efficient method to predict diverse futures, which we relate to its implicit quantization objective. We provide insights into our approach using synthetic data and evaluate it on real-world time series, demonstrating its promising performance at a light computational cost.

Photometric data-driven classification of supernovae becomes a challenge due to the appearance of real-time processing of big data in astronomy. Recent studies have demonstrated the superior quality of solutions based on various machine learning models. These models learn to classify supernova types using their light curves as inputs. Preprocessing these curves is a crucial step that significantly affects the final quality. In this talk, we study the application of multilayer perceptron (MLP), bayesian neural network (BNN), and normalizing flows (NF) to approximate observations for a single light curve. We use these approximations as inputs for supernovae classification models and demonstrate that the proposed methods outperform the state-of-the-art based on Gaussian processes applying to the Zwicky Transient Facility Bright Transient Survey light curves. MLP demonstrates similar quality as Gaussian processes and speed increase. Normalizing Flows exceeds Gaussian processes in terms of approximation quality as well.

We investigate the use of randomly generated data for the sake of pre-training a model. We justify this approach theoretically from the perspective of algorithmic complexity, building on recent research that shows that sequence models can be trained to approximate Solomonoff induction. We derive similar, but complementary theoretical results. We show empirically that synthetically generated data can be used to pre-train a model before the data is seen. We replicate earlier results that models trained this way show zero-shot in-context learning across a variety of datasets, and that this performance improves with scale. We extend earlier results to real-world data, and show that finetuning a model after pre-training offers faster convergence and better generalization.

The predictions of small transformers, trained to calculate the greatest common divisor (GCD) of two positive integers, can be fully characterized by looking at model inputs and outputs. As training proceeds, the model learns a list mathcal D of integers, products of divisors of the base used to represent integers and small primes, and predicts the largest element of mathcal D that divides both inputs. Training distributions impact performance. Models trained from uniform operands only learn a handful of GCD (up to 38 GCD leq100). Log-uniform operands boost performance to 73 GCD leq 100, and a log-uniform distribution of outcomes (i.e. GCD) to 91. However, training from uniform (balanced) GCD breaks explainability.

The ability to identify whether or not a test sample belongs to one of the semantic classes in a classifier's training set is critical to practical deployment of the model. This task is termed open-set recognition (OSR) and has received significant attention in recent years. In this paper, we first demonstrate that the ability of a classifier to make the 'none-of-above' decision is highly correlated with its accuracy on the closed-set classes. We find that this relationship holds across loss objectives and architectures, and further demonstrate the trend both on the standard OSR benchmarks as well as on a large-scale ImageNet evaluation. Second, we use this correlation to boost the performance of a maximum logit score OSR 'baseline' by improving its closed-set accuracy, and with this strong baseline achieve state-of-the-art on a number of OSR benchmarks. Similarly, we boost the performance of the existing state-of-the-art method by improving its closed-set accuracy, but the resulting discrepancy with the strong baseline is marginal. Our third contribution is to present the 'Semantic Shift Benchmark' (SSB), which better respects the task of detecting semantic novelty, in contrast to other forms of distribution shift also considered in related sub-fields, such as out-of-distribution detection. On this new evaluation, we again demonstrate that there is negligible difference between the strong baseline and the existing state-of-the-art. Project Page: https://www.robots.ox.ac.uk/~vgg/research/osr/

We identify rare and visually distinctive galaxy populations by searching for structure within the learned representations of pretrained models. We show that these representations arrange galaxies by appearance in patterns beyond those needed to predict the pretraining labels. We design a clustering approach to isolate specific local patterns, revealing groups of galaxies with rare and scientifically-interesting morphologies.

For tasks like code synthesis from natural language, code retrieval, and code summarization, data-driven models have shown great promise. However, creating these models require parallel data between natural language (NL) and code with fine-grained alignments. Stack Overflow (SO) is a promising source to create such a data set: the questions are diverse and most of them have corresponding answers with high-quality code snippets. However, existing heuristic methods (e.g., pairing the title of a post with the code in the accepted answer) are limited both in their coverage and the correctness of the NL-code pairs obtained. In this paper, we propose a novel method to mine high-quality aligned data from SO using two sets of features: hand-crafted features considering the structure of the extracted snippets, and correspondence features obtained by training a probabilistic model to capture the correlation between NL and code using neural networks. These features are fed into a classifier that determines the quality of mined NL-code pairs. Experiments using Python and Java as test beds show that the proposed method greatly expands coverage and accuracy over existing mining methods, even when using only a small number of labeled examples. Further, we find that reasonable results are achieved even when training the classifier on one language and testing on another, showing promise for scaling NL-code mining to a wide variety of programming languages beyond those for which we are able to annotate data.

Accurate career path prediction can support many stakeholders, like job seekers, recruiters, HR, and project managers. However, publicly available data and tools for career path prediction are scarce. In this work, we introduce KARRIEREWEGE, a comprehensive, publicly available dataset containing over 500k career paths, significantly surpassing the size of previously available datasets. We link the dataset to the ESCO taxonomy to offer a valuable resource for predicting career trajectories. To tackle the problem of free-text inputs typically found in resumes, we enhance it by synthesizing job titles and descriptions resulting in KARRIEREWEGE+. This allows for accurate predictions from unstructured data, closely aligning with real-world application challenges. We benchmark existing state-of-the-art (SOTA) models on our dataset and a prior benchmark and observe improved performance and robustness, particularly for free-text use cases, due to the synthesized data.

Designing robust frameworks for precise prediction of future prices of stocks has always been considered a very challenging research problem. The advocates of the classical efficient market hypothesis affirm that it is impossible to accurately predict the future prices in an efficiently operating market due to the stochastic nature of the stock price variables. However, numerous propositions exist in the literature with varying degrees of sophistication and complexity that illustrate how algorithms and models can be designed for making efficient, accurate, and robust predictions of stock prices. We present a gamut of ten deep learning models of regression for precise and robust prediction of the future prices of the stock of a critical company in the auto sector of India. Using a very granular stock price collected at 5 minutes intervals, we train the models based on the records from 31st Dec, 2012 to 27th Dec, 2013. The testing of the models is done using records from 30th Dec, 2013 to 9th Jan 2015. We explain the design principles of the models and analyze the results of their performance based on accuracy in forecasting and speed of execution.

This study examines the integration of Contrastive Predictive Coding (CPC) with Spiking Neural Networks (SNN). While CPC learns the predictive structure of data to generate meaningful representations, SNN mimics the computational processes of biological neural systems over time. In this study, the goal is to develop a predictive coding model with greater biological plausibility by processing inputs and outputs in a spike-based system. The proposed model was tested on the MNIST dataset and achieved a high classification rate in distinguishing positive sequential samples from non-sequential negative samples. The study demonstrates that CPC can be effectively combined with SNN, showing that an SNN trained for classification tasks can also function as an encoding mechanism. Project codes and detailed results can be accessed on our GitHub page: https://github.com/vnd-ogrenme/ongorusel-kodlama/tree/main/CPC_SNN

Machine unlearning is a crucial tool for enabling a classification model to forget specific data that are used in the training time. Recently, various studies have presented machine unlearning algorithms and evaluated their methods on several datasets. However, most of the current machine unlearning algorithms have been evaluated solely on traditional computer vision datasets such as CIFAR-10, MNIST, and SVHN. Furthermore, previous studies generally evaluate the unlearning methods in the class-unlearning setup. Most previous work first trains the classification models and then evaluates the machine unlearning performance of machine unlearning algorithms by forgetting selected image classes (categories) in the experiments. Unfortunately, these class-unlearning settings might not generalize to real-world scenarios. In this work, we propose a machine unlearning setting that aims to unlearn specific instance that contains personal privacy (identity) while maintaining the original task of a given model. Specifically, we propose two machine unlearning benchmark datasets, MUFAC and MUCAC, that are greatly useful to evaluate the performance and robustness of a machine unlearning algorithm. In our benchmark datasets, the original model performs facial feature recognition tasks: face age estimation (multi-class classification) and facial attribute classification (binary class classification), where a class does not depend on any single target subject (personal identity), which can be a realistic setting. Moreover, we also report the performance of the state-of-the-art machine unlearning methods on our proposed benchmark datasets. All the datasets, source codes, and trained models are publicly available at https://github.com/ndb796/MachineUnlearning.

Local/Native South African languages are classified as low-resource languages. As such, it is essential to build the resources for these languages so that they can benefit from advances in the field of natural language processing. In this work, the focus was to create annotated news datasets for the isiZulu and Siswati native languages based on news topic classification tasks and present the findings from these baseline classification models. Due to the shortage of data for these native South African languages, the datasets that were created were augmented and oversampled to increase data size and overcome class classification imbalance. In total, four different classification models were used namely Logistic regression, Naive bayes, XGBoost and LSTM. These models were trained on three different word embeddings namely Bag-Of-Words, TFIDF and Word2vec. The results of this study showed that XGBoost, Logistic Regression and LSTM, trained from Word2vec performed better than the other combinations.

We define deriving semantic class targets as a novel multi-modal task. By doing so, we aim to improve classification schemes in the physical sciences which can be severely abstracted and obfuscating. We address this task for upcoming radio astronomy surveys and present the derived semantic radio galaxy morphology class targets.

As infamous invaders to the North American ecosystem, the Asian giant hornet (Vespa mandarinia) is devastating not only to native bee colonies, but also to local apiculture. One of the most effective way to combat the harmful species is to locate and destroy their nests. By mobilizing the public to actively report possible sightings of the Asian giant hornet, the governmentcould timely send inspectors to confirm and possibly destroy the nests. However, such confirmation requires lab expertise, where manually checking the reports one by one is extremely consuming of human resources. Further given the limited knowledge of the public about the Asian giant hornet and the randomness of report submission, only few of the numerous reports proved positive, i.e. existing nests. How to classify or prioritize the reports efficiently and automatically, so as to determine the dispatch of personnel, is of great significance to the control of the Asian giant hornet. In this paper, we propose a method to predict the priority of sighting reports based on machine learning. We model the problem of optimal prioritization of sighting reports as a problem of classification and prediction. We extracted a variety of rich features in the report: location, time, image(s), and textual description. Based on these characteristics, we propose a classification model based on logistic regression to predict the credibility of a certain report. Furthermore, our model quantifies the impact between reports to get the priority ranking of the reports. Extensive experiments on the public dataset from the WSDA (the Washington State Department of Agriculture) have proved the effectiveness of our method.

We study whether language models can evaluate the validity of their own claims and predict which questions they will be able to answer correctly. We first show that larger models are well-calibrated on diverse multiple choice and true/false questions when they are provided in the right format. Thus we can approach self-evaluation on open-ended sampling tasks by asking models to first propose answers, and then to evaluate the probability "P(True)" that their answers are correct. We find encouraging performance, calibration, and scaling for P(True) on a diverse array of tasks. Performance at self-evaluation further improves when we allow models to consider many of their own samples before predicting the validity of one specific possibility. Next, we investigate whether models can be trained to predict "P(IK)", the probability that "I know" the answer to a question, without reference to any particular proposed answer. Models perform well at predicting P(IK) and partially generalize across tasks, though they struggle with calibration of P(IK) on new tasks. The predicted P(IK) probabilities also increase appropriately in the presence of relevant source materials in the context, and in the presence of hints towards the solution of mathematical word problems. We hope these observations lay the groundwork for training more honest models, and for investigating how honesty generalizes to cases where models are trained on objectives other than the imitation of human writing.

With an ever-increasing availability of data, it has become more and more challenging to select and label appropriate samples for the training of machine learning models. It is especially difficult to detect long-tail classes of interest in large amounts of unlabeled data. This holds especially true for Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), where vehicle fleets and roadside perception systems generate an abundance of raw data. While industrial, proprietary data engines for such iterative data selection and model training processes exist, researchers and the open-source community suffer from a lack of an openly available system. We present the Mcity Data Engine, which provides modules for the complete data-based development cycle, beginning at the data acquisition phase and ending at the model deployment stage. The Mcity Data Engine focuses on rare and novel classes through an open-vocabulary data selection process. All code is publicly available on GitHub under an MIT license: https://github.com/mcity/mcity_data_engine

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

Predicting gender by the first name is not a simple task. In many applications, especially in the natural language processing (NLP) field, this task may be necessary, mainly when considering foreign names. In this paper, we examined and implemented several machine learning algorithms, such as extra trees, KNN, Naive Bayes, SVM, random forest, gradient boosting, light GBM, logistic regression, ridge classifier, and deep neural network models, such as MLP, RNN, GRU, CNN, and BiLSTM, to classify gender through the first name. A dataset of Brazilian names is used to train and evaluate the models. We analyzed the accuracy, recall, precision, f1 score, and confusion matrix to measure the models' performances. The results indicate that the gender prediction can be performed from the feature extraction strategy looking at the names as a set of strings. Some models accurately predict gender in more than 95% of the cases. The recurrent models overcome the feedforward models in this binary classification problem.

While supervised learning has enabled great progress in many applications, unsupervised learning has not seen such widespread adoption, and remains an important and challenging endeavor for artificial intelligence. In this work, we propose a universal unsupervised learning approach to extract useful representations from high-dimensional data, which we call Contrastive Predictive Coding. The key insight of our model is to learn such representations by predicting the future in latent space by using powerful autoregressive models. We use a probabilistic contrastive loss which induces the latent space to capture information that is maximally useful to predict future samples. It also makes the model tractable by using negative sampling. While most prior work has focused on evaluating representations for a particular modality, we demonstrate that our approach is able to learn useful representations achieving strong performance on four distinct domains: speech, images, text and reinforcement learning in 3D environments.

Interactions among features are central to understanding the behavior of machine learning models. Recent research has made significant strides in detecting and quantifying feature interactions in single predictive models. However, we argue that the feature interactions extracted from a single pre-specified model may not be trustworthy since: a well-trained predictive model may not preserve the true feature interactions and there exist multiple well-performing predictive models that differ in feature interaction strengths. Thus, we recommend exploring feature interaction strengths in a model class of approximately equally accurate predictive models. In this work, we introduce the feature interaction score (FIS) in the context of a Rashomon set, representing a collection of models that achieve similar accuracy on a given task. We propose a general and practical algorithm to calculate the FIS in the model class. We demonstrate the properties of the FIS via synthetic data and draw connections to other areas of statistics. Additionally, we introduce a Halo plot for visualizing the feature interaction variance in high-dimensional space and a swarm plot for analyzing FIS in a Rashomon set. Experiments with recidivism prediction and image classification illustrate how feature interactions can vary dramatically in importance for similarly accurate predictive models. Our results suggest that the proposed FIS can provide valuable insights into the nature of feature interactions in machine learning models.

In this work we propose for the first time a transformer-based framework for unsupervised representation learning of multivariate time series. Pre-trained models can be potentially used for downstream tasks such as regression and classification, forecasting and missing value imputation. By evaluating our models on several benchmark datasets for multivariate time series regression and classification, we show that not only does our modeling approach represent the most successful method employing unsupervised learning of multivariate time series presented to date, but also that it exceeds the current state-of-the-art performance of supervised methods; it does so even when the number of training samples is very limited, while offering computational efficiency. Finally, we demonstrate that unsupervised pre-training of our transformer models offers a substantial performance benefit over fully supervised learning, even without leveraging additional unlabeled data, i.e., by reusing the same data samples through the unsupervised objective.

A backbone of knowledge graphs are their class membership relations, which assign entities to a given class. As part of the knowledge engineering process, we propose a new method for evaluating the quality of these relations by processing descriptions of a given entity and class using a zero-shot chain-of-thought classifier that uses a natural language intensional definition of a class. We evaluate the method using two publicly available knowledge graphs, Wikidata and CaLiGraph, and 7 large language models. Using the gpt-4-0125-preview large language model, the method's classification performance achieves a macro-averaged F1-score of 0.830 on data from Wikidata and 0.893 on data from CaLiGraph. Moreover, a manual analysis of the classification errors shows that 40.9% of errors were due to the knowledge graphs, with 16.0% due to missing relations and 24.9% due to incorrectly asserted relations. These results show how large language models can assist knowledge engineers in the process of knowledge graph refinement. The code and data are available on Github.

Accurate prediction of future prices of stocks is a difficult task to perform. Even more challenging is to design an optimized portfolio of stocks with the identification of proper weights of allocation to achieve the optimized values of return and risk. We present optimized portfolios based on the seven sectors of the Indian economy. The past prices of the stocks are extracted from the web from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2020. Optimum portfolios are designed on the selected seven sectors. An LSTM regression model is also designed for predicting future stock prices. Five months after the construction of the portfolios, i.e., on June 1, 2021, the actual and predicted returns and risks of each portfolio are computed. The predicted and the actual returns indicate the very high accuracy of the LSTM model.

With the success of pretraining techniques in representation learning, a number of continual learning methods based on pretrained models have been proposed. Some of these methods design continual learning mechanisms on the pre-trained representations and only allow minimum updates or even no updates of the backbone models during the training of continual learning. In this paper, we question whether the complexity of these models is needed to achieve good performance by comparing them to a simple baseline that we designed. We argue that the pretrained feature extractor itself can be strong enough to achieve a competitive or even better continual learning performance on Split-CIFAR100 and CoRe 50 benchmarks. To validate this, we conduct a very simple baseline that 1) use the frozen pretrained model to extract image features for every class encountered during the continual learning stage and compute their corresponding mean features on training data, and 2) predict the class of the input based on the nearest neighbor distance between test samples and mean features of the classes; i.e., Nearest Mean Classifier (NMC). This baseline is single-headed, exemplar-free, and can be task-free (by updating the means continually). This baseline achieved 88.53% on 10-Split-CIFAR-100, surpassing most state-of-the-art continual learning methods that are all initialized using the same pretrained transformer model. We hope our baseline may encourage future progress in designing learning systems that can continually add quality to the learning representations even if they started from some pretrained weights.

Kernel methods are widely used in machine learning, especially for classification problems. However, the theoretical analysis of kernel classification is still limited. This paper investigates the statistical performances of kernel classifiers. With some mild assumptions on the conditional probability eta(x)=P(Y=1mid X=x), we derive an upper bound on the classification excess risk of a kernel classifier using recent advances in the theory of kernel regression. We also obtain a minimax lower bound for Sobolev spaces, which shows the optimality of the proposed classifier. Our theoretical results can be extended to the generalization error of overparameterized neural network classifiers. To make our theoretical results more applicable in realistic settings, we also propose a simple method to estimate the interpolation smoothness of 2eta(x)-1 and apply the method to real datasets.

In this paper cum technical report, we present PHUDGE A fine tuned Phi3 model that achieved SOTA results in 4 tasks as Feedback Test, Feedback OOD, MT Human, Preference Test surpassing each and every existing model in latency and throughput. It shows very strong correlation not only with GPT4 but with Human annotators too in unseen data as well as in both absolute and relative grading tasks. We have not only addressed the usage of small LMs for cost effective production grade systems but have also shown that Causal modelling is not only slow in nature but sometimes it can hinder models learning capabilities and should be replaced by simpler tasks whenever we can to make the overall system faster and better. We show that by following systematic ML experimentation, thoughtful data augmentation and re purposing the problem itself, we can even beat 10x bigger models even with lesser training data. To the best of our knowledge, we are re the first one to experiment and showcase the usage of generalised version of Earth Movers Distance AKA Wasserstein distance by using Minkowski Distance with a penalty to control loss smoothing and can be used as a loss function instead of Cross Entropy to get stable training and better results for grading tasks.

Real-world classifiers can benefit from the option of abstaining from predicting on samples where they have low confidence. Such abstention is particularly useful on samples which are close to the learned decision boundary, or which are outliers with respect to the training sample. These settings have been the subject of extensive but disjoint study in the selective classification (SC) and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection literature. Recent work on selective classification with OOD detection (SCOD) has argued for the unified study of these problems; however, the formal underpinnings of this problem are still nascent, and existing techniques are heuristic in nature. In this paper, we propose new plugin estimators for SCOD that are theoretically grounded, effective, and generalise existing approaches from the SC and OOD detection literature. In the course of our analysis, we formally explicate how na\"{i}ve use of existing SC and OOD detection baselines may be inadequate for SCOD. We empirically demonstrate that our approaches yields competitive SC and OOD detection performance compared to baselines from both literatures.

Machine learning has become an essential tool in jet physics. Due to their complex, high-dimensional nature, jets can be explored holistically by neural networks in ways that are not possible manually. However, innovations in all areas of jet physics are proceeding in parallel. We show that specially constructed machine learning models trained for a specific jet classification task can improve the accuracy, precision, or speed of all other jet physics tasks. This is demonstrated by training on a particular multiclass generation and classification task and then using the learned representation for different generation and classification tasks, for datasets with a different (full) detector simulation, for jets from a different collision system (pp versus ep), for generative models, for likelihood ratio estimation, and for anomaly detection. We consider, our OmniLearn approach thus as a jet-physics foundation model. It is made publicly available for use in any area where state-of-the-art precision is required for analyses involving jets and their substructure.

Constantly discovering novel concepts is crucial in evolving environments. This paper explores the underexplored task of Continual Generalized Category Discovery (C-GCD), which aims to incrementally discover new classes from unlabeled data while maintaining the ability to recognize previously learned classes. Although several settings are proposed to study the C-GCD task, they have limitations that do not reflect real-world scenarios. We thus study a more practical C-GCD setting, which includes more new classes to be discovered over a longer period, without storing samples of past classes. In C-GCD, the model is initially trained on labeled data of known classes, followed by multiple incremental stages where the model is fed with unlabeled data containing both old and new classes. The core challenge involves two conflicting objectives: discover new classes and prevent forgetting old ones. We delve into the conflicts and identify that models are susceptible to prediction bias and hardness bias. To address these issues, we introduce a debiased learning framework, namely Happy, characterized by Hardness-aware prototype sampling and soft entropy regularization. For the prediction bias, we first introduce clustering-guided initialization to provide robust features. In addition, we propose soft entropy regularization to assign appropriate probabilities to new classes, which can significantly enhance the clustering performance of new classes. For the harness bias, we present the hardness-aware prototype sampling, which can effectively reduce the forgetting issue for previously seen classes, especially for difficult classes. Experimental results demonstrate our method proficiently manages the conflicts of C-GCD and achieves remarkable performance across various datasets, e.g., 7.5% overall gains on ImageNet-100. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/mashijie1028/Happy-CGCD.

Class-agnostic counting methods enumerate objects of an arbitrary class, providing tremendous utility in many fields. Prior works have limited usefulness as they require either a set of examples of the type to be counted or that the query image contains only a single type of object. A significant factor in these shortcomings is the lack of a dataset to properly address counting in settings with more than one kind of object present. To address these issues, we propose the first Multi-class, Class-Agnostic Counting dataset (MCAC) and A Blind Counter (ABC123), a method that can count multiple types of objects simultaneously without using examples of type during training or inference. ABC123 introduces a new paradigm where instead of requiring exemplars to guide the enumeration, examples are found after the counting stage to help a user understand the generated outputs. We show that ABC123 outperforms contemporary methods on MCAC without needing human in-the-loop annotations. We also show that this performance transfers to FSC-147, the standard class-agnostic counting dataset. MCAC is available at MCAC.active.vision and ABC123 is available at ABC123.active.vision.

We present a new approach for mitigating unfairness in learned classifiers. In particular, we focus on binary classification tasks over individuals from two populations, where, as our criterion for fairness, we wish to achieve similar false positive rates in both populations, and similar false negative rates in both populations. As a proof of concept, we implement our approach and empirically evaluate its ability to achieve both fairness and accuracy, using datasets from the fields of criminal risk assessment, credit, lending, and college admissions.

Self-training is a well-known approach for semi-supervised learning. It consists of iteratively assigning pseudo-labels to unlabeled data for which the model is confident and treating them as labeled examples. For neural networks, softmax prediction probabilities are often used as a confidence measure, although they are known to be overconfident, even for wrong predictions. This phenomenon is particularly intensified in the presence of sample selection bias, i.e., when data labeling is subject to some constraint. To address this issue, we propose a novel confidence measure, called T-similarity, built upon the prediction diversity of an ensemble of linear classifiers. We provide the theoretical analysis of our approach by studying stationary points and describing the relationship between the diversity of the individual members and their performance. We empirically demonstrate the benefit of our confidence measure for three different pseudo-labeling policies on classification datasets of various data modalities. The code is available at https://github.com/ambroiseodt/tsim.

The task of efficient automatic music classification is of vital importance and forms the basis for various advanced applications of AI in the musical domain. Musical instrument recognition is the task of instrument identification by virtue of its audio. This audio, also termed as the sound vibrations are leveraged by the model to match with the instrument classes. In this paper, we use an artificial neural network (ANN) model that was trained to perform classification on twenty different classes of musical instruments. Here we use use only the mel-frequency cepstral coefficients (MFCCs) of the audio data. Our proposed model trains on the full London philharmonic orchestra dataset which contains twenty classes of instruments belonging to the four families viz. woodwinds, brass, percussion, and strings. Based on experimental results our model achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on the same.

This paper considers the learning of logical (Boolean) functions with focus on the generalization on the unseen (GOTU) setting, a strong case of out-of-distribution generalization. This is motivated by the fact that the rich combinatorial nature of data in certain reasoning tasks (e.g., arithmetic/logic) makes representative data sampling challenging, and learning successfully under GOTU gives a first vignette of an 'extrapolating' or 'reasoning' learner. We then study how different network architectures trained by (S)GD perform under GOTU and provide both theoretical and experimental evidence that for a class of network models including instances of Transformers, random features models, and diagonal linear networks, a min-degree-interpolator (MDI) is learned on the unseen. We also provide evidence that other instances with larger learning rates or mean-field networks reach leaky MDIs. These findings lead to two implications: (1) we provide an explanation to the length generalization problem (e.g., Anil et al. 2022); (2) we introduce a curriculum learning algorithm called Degree-Curriculum that learns monomials more efficiently by incrementing supports.

Long-tailed classification is challenging due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities. While existing methods often focus on overall accuracy or accuracy for tail classes, they overlook a critical aspect: certain types of errors can carry greater risks than others in real-world long-tailed problems. For example, misclassifying patients (a tail class) as healthy individuals (a head class) entails far more serious consequences than the reverse scenario. To address this critical issue, we introduce Making Reliable and Flexible Decisions in Long-tailed Classification (RF-DLC), a novel framework aimed at reliable predictions in long-tailed problems. Leveraging Bayesian Decision Theory, we introduce an integrated gain to seamlessly combine long-tailed data distributions and the decision-making procedure. We further propose an efficient variational optimization strategy for the decision risk objective. Our method adapts readily to diverse utility matrices, which can be designed for specific tasks, ensuring its flexibility for different problem settings. In empirical evaluation, we design a new metric, False Head Rate, to quantify tail-sensitivity risk, along with comprehensive experiments on multiple real-world tasks, including large-scale image classification and uncertainty quantification, to demonstrate the reliability and flexibility of our method.

Ensuring the reliability and safety of automated decision-making is crucial. It is well-known that data distribution shifts in machine learning can produce unreliable outcomes. This paper proposes a new approach for measuring the reliability of predictions under distribution shifts. We analyze how the outputs of a trained neural network change using clustering to measure distances between outputs and class centroids. We propose this distance as a metric to evaluate the confidence of predictions under distribution shifts. We assign each prediction to a cluster with centroid representing the mean softmax output for all correct predictions of a given class. We then define a safety threshold for a class as the smallest distance from an incorrect prediction to the given class centroid. We evaluate the approach on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets using a Convolutional Neural Network and a Vision Transformer, respectively. The results show that our approach is consistent across these data sets and network models, and indicate that the proposed metric can offer an efficient way of determining when automated predictions are acceptable and when they should be deferred to human operators given a distribution shift.

Recent empirical works have successfully used unlabeled data to learn feature representations that are broadly useful in downstream classification tasks. Several of these methods are reminiscent of the well-known word2vec embedding algorithm: leveraging availability of pairs of semantically "similar" data points and "negative samples," the learner forces the inner product of representations of similar pairs with each other to be higher on average than with negative samples. The current paper uses the term contrastive learning for such algorithms and presents a theoretical framework for analyzing them by introducing latent classes and hypothesizing that semantically similar points are sampled from the same latent class. This framework allows us to show provable guarantees on the performance of the learned representations on the average classification task that is comprised of a subset of the same set of latent classes. Our generalization bound also shows that learned representations can reduce (labeled) sample complexity on downstream tasks. We conduct controlled experiments in both the text and image domains to support the theory.

Multivariate time series classification is a crucial task in data mining, attracting growing research interest due to its broad applications. While many existing methods focus on discovering discriminative patterns in time series, real-world data does not always present such patterns, and sometimes raw numerical values can also serve as discriminative features. Additionally, the recent success of Transformer models has inspired many studies. However, when applying to time series classification, the self-attention mechanisms in Transformer models could introduce classification-irrelevant features, thereby compromising accuracy. To address these challenges, we propose a novel method, VSFormer, that incorporates both discriminative patterns (shape) and numerical information (value). In addition, we extract class-specific prior information derived from supervised information to enrich the positional encoding and provide classification-oriented self-attention learning, thereby enhancing its effectiveness. Extensive experiments on all 30 UEA archived datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our method compared to SOTA models. Through ablation studies, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the improved encoding layer and the proposed self-attention mechanism. Finally, We provide a case study on a real-world time series dataset without discriminative patterns to interpret our model.

Decision-makers are often experts of their domain and take actions based on their domain knowledge. Doctors, for instance, may prescribe treatments by predicting the likely outcome of each available treatment. Actions of an expert thus naturally encode part of their domain knowledge, and can help make inferences within the same domain: Knowing doctors try to prescribe the best treatment for their patients, we can tell treatments prescribed more frequently are likely to be more effective. Yet in machine learning, the fact that most decision-makers are experts is often overlooked, and "expertise" is seldom leveraged as an inductive bias. This is especially true for the literature on treatment effect estimation, where often the only assumption made about actions is that of overlap. In this paper, we argue that expertise - particularly the type of expertise the decision-makers of a domain are likely to have - can be informative in designing and selecting methods for treatment effect estimation. We formally define two types of expertise, predictive and prognostic, and demonstrate empirically that: (i) the prominent type of expertise in a domain significantly influences the performance of different methods in treatment effect estimation, and (ii) it is possible to predict the type of expertise present in a dataset, which can provide a quantitative basis for model selection.

Background: Open-Source Pre-Trained Models (PTMs) and datasets provide extensive resources for various Machine Learning (ML) tasks, yet these resources lack a classification tailored to Software Engineering (SE) needs. Aims: We apply an SE-oriented classification to PTMs and datasets on a popular open-source ML repository, Hugging Face (HF), and analyze the evolution of PTMs over time. Method: We conducted a repository mining study. We started with a systematically gathered database of PTMs and datasets from the HF API. Our selection was refined by analyzing model and dataset cards and metadata, such as tags, and confirming SE relevance using Gemini 1.5 Pro. All analyses are replicable, with a publicly accessible replication package. Results: The most common SE task among PTMs and datasets is code generation, with a primary focus on software development and limited attention to software management. Popular PTMs and datasets mainly target software development. Among ML tasks, text generation is the most common in SE PTMs and datasets. There has been a marked increase in PTMs for SE since 2023 Q2. Conclusions: This study underscores the need for broader task coverage to enhance the integration of ML within SE practices.

Watch time prediction (WTP) has emerged as a pivotal task in short video recommendation systems, designed to quantify user engagement through continuous interaction modeling. Predicting users' watch times on videos often encounters fundamental challenges, including wide value ranges and imbalanced data distributions, which can lead to significant estimation bias when directly applying regression techniques. Recent studies have attempted to address these issues by converting the continuous watch time estimation into an ordinal regression task. While these methods demonstrate partial effectiveness, they exhibit notable limitations: (1) the discretization process frequently relies on bucket partitioning, inherently reducing prediction flexibility and accuracy and (2) the interdependencies among different partition intervals remain underutilized, missing opportunities for effective error correction. Inspired by language modeling paradigms, we propose a novel Generative Regression (GR) framework that reformulates WTP as a sequence generation task. Our approach employs structural discretization to enable nearly lossless value reconstruction while maintaining prediction fidelity. Through carefully designed vocabulary construction and label encoding schemes, each watch time is bijectively mapped to a token sequence. To mitigate the training-inference discrepancy caused by teacher-forcing, we introduce a curriculum learning with embedding mixup strategy that gradually transitions from guided to free-generation modes. We evaluate our method against state-of-the-art approaches on two public datasets and one industrial dataset. We also perform online A/B testing on the Kuaishou App to confirm the real-world effectiveness. The results conclusively show that GR outperforms existing techniques significantly.

Mixture models arise in many regression problems, but most methods have seen limited adoption partly due to these algorithms' highly-tailored and model-specific nature. On the other hand, transformers are flexible, neural sequence models that present the intriguing possibility of providing general-purpose prediction methods, even in this mixture setting. In this work, we investigate the hypothesis that transformers can learn an optimal predictor for mixtures of regressions. We construct a generative process for a mixture of linear regressions for which the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is given by data-driven exponential weights on a finite set of parameters. We observe that transformers achieve low mean-squared error on data generated via this process. By probing the transformer's output at inference time, we also show that transformers typically make predictions that are close to the optimal predictor. Our experiments also demonstrate that transformers can learn mixtures of regressions in a sample-efficient fashion and are somewhat robust to distribution shifts. We complement our experimental observations by proving constructively that the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is indeed implementable by a transformer.

This paper presents a comprehensive study on resume classification to reduce the time and labor needed to screen an overwhelming number of applications significantly, while improving the selection of suitable candidates. A total of 6,492 resumes are extracted from 24,933 job applications for 252 positions designated into four levels of experience for Clinical Research Coordinators (CRC). Each resume is manually annotated to its most appropriate CRC position by experts through several rounds of triple annotation to establish guidelines. As a result, a high Kappa score of 61% is achieved for inter-annotator agreement. Given this dataset, novel transformer-based classification models are developed for two tasks: the first task takes a resume and classifies it to a CRC level (T1), and the second task takes both a resume and a job description to apply and predicts if the application is suited to the job T2. Our best models using section encoding and multi-head attention decoding give results of 73.3% to T1 and 79.2% to T2. Our analysis shows that the prediction errors are mostly made among adjacent CRC levels, which are hard for even experts to distinguish, implying the practical value of our models in real HR platforms.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.