sample_id stringlengths 36 36 | question_text stringlengths 89 530 | resolution_criteria stringlengths 291 704 | correct_answer stringlengths 3 85 | date_close stringdate 2025-12-14 00:00:00 2026-07-01 00:00:00 | event_date stringdate 2025-11-24 00:00:00 2026-01-26 00:00:00 | prediction_date stringdate 2025-11-24 00:00:00 2026-01-26 00:00:00 | answer_type stringclasses 3
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values | answer_parser_type stringclasses 3
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
d1e1698f-ed07-4101-84fe-5e6719f2b4f5 | Will the United Nations General Assembly or the UN Security Council officially recognize Edmundo González as the President of Venezuela by March 1, 2026? | This question resolves to 'Yes' if the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) passes a resolution or the UN Security Council (UNSC) issues a formal statement/resolution recognizing Edmundo González as the legitimate President of Venezuela or accepting his appointed representatives' credentials as the official delegatio... | 0.0 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | binary | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | The close date for this question was March 1, 2026. The question date was December 2, 2025. The answer is '0' because the United Nations General Assembly and the UN Security Council did not officially recognize Edmundo González as the President of Venezuela or accept his appointed representatives' credentials as the of... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHrz1yDHDgtSSIbCE_DR0CxUWdSB9yNPp2ASGkplvBcVaGdNvvDdFiB50zgCuU8XLetzL_qh0Oxd3mjHuj1vl2NFDrvkvJhNHfswsEkzNZSKBCn-6Ba1WuFCCoi_1axrMOB3ZhfXB6wdFCks0iY8rFsmXIe5veFRtj1S_z5wcjkSaQkv9v5-ryfGMf199WpvdH5AKoovVMZqGWFl3I=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] A War in Venezuela Would Not Solve Latin America's Drug and Dictator Problems (published on 2025-11-14 by stimson.org) (relevance: 1.0)\nSummary: The article says the Trump administration is launching a renewed \"maximum pressure\" ca... | [
{
"content": "QUESTION:\nWill the United Nations General Assembly or the UN Security Council officially recognize Edmundo González as the President of Venezuela by March 1, 2026?\n\nTODAY'S DATE:\n2025-12-02\n\nRESOLUTION CRITERIA:\nThis question resolves to 'Yes' if the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) p... | binary_log_score | binary | null |
64ea627b-4426-4340-9504-f24785fcac4c | Will the Rajya Sabha hold a formal short-duration discussion or a debate on the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls before February 1, 2026? | The question resolves to Yes if the official proceedings of the Rajya Sabha (available on the Rajya Sabha website or reported by major outlets like PTI or The Hindu) confirm that a formal discussion or debate specifically titled or focused on the 'Special Intensive Revision' (SIR) of electoral rolls was conducted in th... | 1.0 | 2026-02-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | 2025-12-02T00:00:00 | binary | 0.9 | 2025-12-16T00:00:00 | The close date for this question is 2026-02-01, and the question date is 2025-12-02. On December 1, 2025, the Rajya Sabha witnessed calls for discussions on the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls. On December 2, 2025, the Rajya Sabha saw a heated debate where the Chairman rejected the Opposition's dema... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGkqRfhQt8BkK_e32V2sJaRmeoH2229pc6zFpe59A606I1THZQSVFVe1Bbzx1A6gZO9xoWhi4Hht51aZNusfVZqGUcpM3IBYCTYDs1arfkyxcKn40v4phcWMfVCDQr3UW2zXo3onwG6BXF70jEphQjSmk7I4sQ8JusT6FQRjsNtMQS4w__OE-QDu1E_ZYuLeCzX32ZKfbnAnY03rwj6rij6gLdJfhmKu_kAfTnP6hGpdHZ3KcNJNtbcRubOD... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Centre nod for poll reforms debate; Parliament standoff may end today (published on 2025-12-01 by thefederal.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Parliament's Winter Session logjam is expected to ease on Wednesday (Dec 3) after the Centre ... | [
{
"content": "QUESTION:\nWill the Rajya Sabha hold a formal short-duration discussion or a debate on the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls before February 1, 2026?\n\nTODAY'S DATE:\n2025-12-02\n\nRESOLUTION CRITERIA:\nThe question resolves to Yes if the official proceedings of the Rajya Sabha ... | binary_log_score | binary | null |
5f8ffe64-6950-4576-a707-b71d5b3313d4 | By March 1, 2026, will the Nigerian government formally issue a diplomatic protest or take action to restrict US military access to Nigerian airspace or territory in response to US airstrikes in northwest Nigeria? option_0: Formal diplomatic protest issued; option_1: Restriction of airspace or territory; option_2: Both... | The question will be resolved based on official statements from the Nigerian Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the Office of the President of Nigeria. A 'formal diplomatic protest' includes summoning the US ambassador or filing an official grievance with the UN or US State Department. 'Restrictions' include the revocation... | Neither protest nor restrictions | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | 2025-12-26T00:00:00 | multiple_choice | 1 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | The close date for this question is 2026-03-01. The question asks about the Nigerian government's response to hypothetical US airstrikes in northwest Nigeria in December 2025. To resolve this question, I performed a search for information available up to the close date of 2026-03-01. The search focused on confirming if... | null | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Trump says US launched strike against ISIL in northwest Nigeria (published on 2025-12-25 by aljazeera.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: Trump said the US launched a \"powerful and deadly\" air strike against ISIS fighters in northwest N... | [
{
"content": "QUESTION:\nBy March 1, 2026, will the Nigerian government formally issue a diplomatic protest or take action to restrict US military access to Nigerian airspace or territory in response to US airstrikes in northwest Nigeria? option_0: Formal diplomatic protest issued; option_1: Restriction of airs... | multi_choice_log_score | multi_choice | {"option_0": "Formal diplomatic protest issued", "option_1": "Restriction of airspace or territory", "option_2": "Both protest and restrictions", "option_3": "Neither protest nor restrictions"} |
8c5602cc-1db5-4a7c-82aa-72c299bad777 | By April 1, 2026, will the Indian government officially announce the creation of a new national holiday or a recurring national commemorative day specifically dedicated to Bhagwan Birsa Munda or 'Vande Mataram' 150th anniversary celebrations? option_0: New national holiday announced option_1: New recurring commemorativ... | The announcement must be made by a Union Minister or the Prime Minister's Office and published via the Press Information Bureau (PIB). A 'national holiday' refers to a Gazetted Holiday. A 'recurring commemorative day' refers to an annual designation (e.g., 'National Law Day') without a mandatory work closure. One-time ... | Neither a holiday nor a recurring day announced | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-08T00:00:00 | 2025-12-08T00:00:00 | multiple_choice | 0.9 | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | The close date for this question is 2026-04-01, and the question date is 2025-12-08. To determine the answer, I considered official announcements made by the Indian government (Union Minister or Prime Minister's Office, published via Press Information Bureau) between these two dates.Searches for announcements regarding... | null | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] 150 years of 'Vande Mataram': PM Modi hails the spirit of unity; unveils commemorative portal, coin and s (published on 2025-11-07 by timesofindia.indiatimes.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated a y... | [
{
"content": "QUESTION:\nBy April 1, 2026, will the Indian government officially announce the creation of a new national holiday or a recurring national commemorative day specifically dedicated to Bhagwan Birsa Munda or 'Vande Mataram' 150th anniversary celebrations? option_0: New national holiday announced opt... | multi_choice_log_score | multi_choice | {"option_0": "New national holiday announced", "option_1": "New recurring commemorative day (non-holiday) announced", "option_2": "Neither a holiday nor a recurring day announced"} |
0e7ca476-e2f5-4f27-a133-ae1a34f43290 | Will the European Council formally adopt a decision to provide dedicated financial support to Ukraine for the 2026-2027 period at its meeting on December 18-19, 2025? | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the European Council, during its scheduled meeting on December 18-19, 2025, issues official conclusions or a formal decision announcing a multi-year financial assistance package or budgetary allocation specifically for Ukraine covering the two-year period of 2026 and 2027. If no such d... | 1.0 | 2025-12-20T00:00:00 | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | 2025-11-24T00:00:00 | binary | 1 | 2025-12-18T00:00:00 | The close date for this question is 2025-12-20, and the question date is 2025-11-24. On December 18, 2025, during its meeting, the European Council reached an agreement to provide a •90 billion loan to Ukraine, explicitly intended to cover the country's financing needs for both 2026 and 2027. Official conclusions from ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEgMTgTZy9WkcCCQpx7VLsXjlHTwjFktWzHtTIs_u5hmpssfJtsT03iCU73O6EJGTY7lJVOFZzMm1UJPOMlsYIaUtMxIOzzm9Gi8c3u0Qiq8aU0-rYbZ-GVL-KXgfuktz6ScuwoP1KGJI9uRbhRpwfUJGn2oJiORZhP4h4zrsap5ZTd, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE6pQVR... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] US peace plan throws reparations loan for Ukraine into disarray (published on 2025-11-21 by euronews.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: The EU's plan for a reparations loan using Russia's frozen assets is thrown into uncertainty by a US-... | [
{
"content": "QUESTION:\nWill the European Council formally adopt a decision to provide dedicated financial support to Ukraine for the 2026-2027 period at its meeting on December 18-19, 2025?\n\nTODAY'S DATE:\n2025-11-24\n\nRESOLUTION CRITERIA:\nThe question resolves to 'Yes' if the European Council, during its... | binary_log_score | binary | null |
03d65d2e-2c3d-42b7-9b70-c52a3377c242 | Will the Australian Federal Police or New South Wales Police announce the arrest of any additional individuals in connection with the December 2025 Bondi Beach attack before February 15, 2026? | This question resolves to 'Yes' if, between December 17, 2025, and February 15, 2026, any Australian law enforcement agency issues an official statement or press release confirming that a person (other than Naveed Akram or the deceased Sajid Akram) has been arrested or charged in direct relation to the planning, facili... | 0.0 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-17T00:00:00 | 2025-12-17T00:00:00 | binary | 1 | 2026-02-15T00:00:00 | The question asks whether the Australian Federal Police (AFP) or New South Wales Police (NSW Police) announced the arrest of any additional individuals (other than Naveed Akram or the deceased Sajid Akram) in connection with the December 2025 Bondi Beach attack between December 17, 2025, and February 15, 2026.
1. Dec... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQExBNxGB6FX3b4Wr7qqL9knSNDjC30ROLHJ-UN8JMLIHDLF7hR82AcbUbgqeq9yZGdoQYumu4uYqZrWMKZ6sDhbazPqFldBpy77ArFrxgNxoe-_nf1FFDUo1SR7o93WBONiMWTeBqGDsCt0kLagZy6uxQ==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQHknIb2tyBCFZmIqBfkLEDbZFc4... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] At least 15 killed in shooting at Jewish festival at Sydney's Bondi Beach (published on 2025-12-14 by aljazeera.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Two gunmen attacked a Jewish Hanukkah festival at Sydney's Bondi Beach, killing at least 1... | [
{
"content": "QUESTION:\nWill the Australian Federal Police or New South Wales Police announce the arrest of any additional individuals in connection with the December 2025 Bondi Beach attack before February 15, 2026?\n\nTODAY'S DATE:\n2025-12-17\n\nRESOLUTION CRITERIA:\nThis question resolves to 'Yes' if, betw... | binary_log_score | binary | null |
508e7f83-29ac-43fb-b16e-8bc991559159 | What will be the total amount of reconstruction funding, in billions of U.S. dollars, pledged by the United States to Ukraine in official White House announcements or bilateral agreements made between December 28, 2025, and February 28, 2026? | The answer will be the cumulative sum of all financial commitments for 'reconstruction' or 'economic recovery' (excluding direct military aid/weapons transfers) announced by the U.S. Executive Branch specifically for Ukraine during the period from December 28, 2025, to February 28, 2026. Data will be sourced from offic... | 0.0 | 2026-03-01T00:00:00 | 2025-12-28T00:00:00 | 2025-12-28T00:00:00 | continuous | 0.9 | 2026-02-28T00:00:00 | The close date for this question is 2026-03-01, and the question date is 2025-12-28. I conducted searches for official White House or State Department announcements and bilateral agreements made within the period of December 28, 2025, to February 28, 2026, specifically concerning reconstruction or economic recovery fun... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEzXKnOTPJWrcO_vC0h7NGsXfk2PumWVrIajPXZb-UGdJqk2249PEfHB9pq6rJP0G66qOnXc8XaT9owhEl0uMNTJzpj_fhN1OBzCI_C5ApeDbsFKHBjvN_qjzfRJBd87DWXt9gz0Cvav1Gov_zI4_80, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEo1wUj7yRZupAS7Kq99uzAyk5K6Afi... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Zelensky unveils new US-backed, 20-point plan to end the war in Ukraine (published on 2025-12-24 by france24.com) (relevance: 3.0)\nSummary: Zelensky said a new US-backed 20-point plan to end the Ukraine war was agreed by Kyiv and Was... | [
{
"content": "QUESTION:\nWhat will be the total amount of reconstruction funding, in billions of U.S. dollars, pledged by the United States to Ukraine in official White House announcements or bilateral agreements made between December 28, 2025, and February 28, 2026?\n\nTODAY'S DATE:\n2025-12-28\n\nRESOLUTION C... | continuous_log_score | continuous | null |
20a008d9-2fb3-45e2-97e7-eeb8a1091aea | Will Denmark recall its ambassador to the United States for consultations before April 1, 2026? | The question resolves to 'Yes' if the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the Danish Prime Minister's Office formally announces that Ambassador Jesper Moller Sorensen (or his successor) has been recalled to Copenhagen 'for consultations' or as a diplomatic protest against U.S. statements or actions regarding Greenlan... | 0.0 | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | 2026-01-05T00:00:00 | 2026-01-05T00:00:00 | binary | 1 | 2026-04-01T00:00:00 | The question asks whether Denmark recalled its ambassador to the United States for consultations before April 1, 2026, as a diplomatic protest against U.S. statements or actions regarding Greenland. The close date for this question is April 1, 2026, and the question date is January 5, 2026. Based on the search results,... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH0DTBcyFQyDY4CNeXs9qs4gWRETOtk7cS0q_Zptkk0UQkkAo3y4B7oN_SW5U83OBvf-XiTvUIGwVmjIB-eOwXrWIyQOGEH9EJYY1kjAXAeE9GeTbaxbv4s-F4FFHbvsUzZ48UApT8=, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFMLcJIULYcvXVSrhUH1rG03hcMNRhS7cz56Bj0n98T... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Angering Denmark, Trump Appoints Special Envoy to Greenland (published on 2025-12-22 by nytimes.com) (relevance: 4.0)\nSummary: Denmark and Greenland condemned President Trump's appointment of Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry as a special e... | [
{
"content": "QUESTION:\nWill Denmark recall its ambassador to the United States for consultations before April 1, 2026?\n\nTODAY'S DATE:\n2026-01-05\n\nRESOLUTION CRITERIA:\nThe question resolves to 'Yes' if the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the Danish Prime Minister's Office formally announces that Am... | binary_log_score | binary | null |
67676de9-475f-4382-839f-51a6d815eec6 | How many criminal charges for manslaughter or murder will be officially filed by federal or state prosecutors against the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent involved in the shooting of Renee Nicole Good in Minneapolis by March 31, 2026? | The answer will be the total number of distinct criminal counts of murder or manslaughter filed in either federal or state court against the specific ICE agent who discharged the firearm. This will be verified through official court records or announcements from the U.S. Department of Justice or the Hennepin County Att... | 0.0 | 2026-03-31T00:00:00 | 2026-01-09T00:00:00 | 2026-01-09T00:00:00 | continuous | 1 | 2026-03-31T00:00:00 | The question asks for the number of criminal charges for manslaughter or murder officially filed by federal or state prosecutors against the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent involved in the shooting of Renee Nicole Good in Minneapolis by March 31, 2026. The close date for this question is March 31, ... | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEjOMdNx0OYrSJHAq3gxXh29vamttMHWc3VFNPAlE3vkRebMOGuyoER_pl5nLyXL4ILl8k27quQYvRbjuCLnWagLlr-YW_jkhj8YNl5_a2TDpnmd3rtQwMVpYnld_93IHrLKXD4oCGgUpYb0-s913wwWaiz, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE-E16ieX9zS7-88QXn3aMK8yW_... | [
{
"context_type": "NEWS_CONTEXT",
"rendered_context": "---\nARTICLES\n[1] Legal Hurdles Likely to Stymie State Charges in Minnesota ICE Shooting Case (published on 2026-01-08 by nytimes.com) (relevance: 5.0)\nSummary: Minnesota officials face major obstacles to charging the ICE agent who fatally shot a Minn... | [
{
"content": "QUESTION:\nHow many criminal charges for manslaughter or murder will be officially filed by federal or state prosecutors against the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent involved in the shooting of Renee Nicole Good in Minneapolis by March 31, 2026?\n\nTODAY'S DATE:\n2026-01-09\n\n... | continuous_log_score | continuous | null |
a2c0c49e-65d9-4cc0-b533-75b1752e2e39 | "Will a joint official statement from the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit confirm the establishment (...TRUNCATED) | "The question resolves to 'Yes' if the official joint statement or a specific bilateral agreement is(...TRUNCATED) | 0.0 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | 2025-12-04T00:00:00 | 2025-12-04T00:00:00 | binary | 1 | 2026-01-15T00:00:00 | "The question asks whether a joint official statement from the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit would(...TRUNCATED) | https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQF4lxOUjbJDlt5KdQmxToeAr0piaE0YJdSze7dNq8o0o9BLpQns0MusDivz_8xuyzkK8eHy9xoE59Na3Li5GVV06jkgbBzebYzS_KGva2etPucOM9GZ2xpG3uUU1ZfH5whzC5sgK-2N-QWVRgfVLytshb9YNXRoQZIEQwSpoBUAVKlg8eMDEOngS4-_eGHtWz1-3pvX9PHrqeuJy-giMJxEsw==, https://vertexaisearch.cloud.go... | [{"context_type":"NEWS_CONTEXT","rendered_context":"---\nARTICLES\n[1] What Putin-Modi Meeting Signa(...TRUNCATED) | [{"content":"QUESTION:\nWill a joint official statement from the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit con(...TRUNCATED) | binary_log_score | binary | null |
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