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Is shit about to get down for Bitcoin as it does approach the low of $60,000? Well, in today's video, we're going to go over perhaps the worst case scenario for Bitcoin in the more near term.

Why are you laughing? Seriously, why are you laughing? What's funny about that? Shit's about to get hands? Does that make more sense to you? Does that make more sense to you?

And then we'll also go over something that I think is actually probably going to surprise a lot of people, at least as far as probabilistic setups go.

So first things first, let's jump to the charts. Actually, before that, I should let you know that you can join the Discord community.

I put out a link on Twitter, and there's also one in this nice description as well, which you can join. It's completely free, and you can chat with people like Queen Elsa and also Oppressed Fatty.

That's one of the best names I've seen in a while. A lot of good faces in there, a lot of very, very cool people, a lot of OGs like Equinox actually as well.

And with that said, we can jump right into the content of the day. So first things first, I want to go over sort of the more short term and then perhaps short term worst case scenario.

And today is an FOMC day. And you haven't heard me talk about FOMC for quite some time, probably about a year now, because in my opinion, it just really hasn't mattered all that much.

But with FOMC coming later today, I do think that there is a ripe opportunity for some short-term volatility with Bitcoin, probably retesting the current lows, maybe making a slightly lower low.

But ultimately, I do think that this correction is now starting to get closer to the bottom of it than not.

And we're likely in for a period of sideways boringness. I kind of see two things on the market right now.

There are, like, it seems like half of the market is saying, this is a fucking major top. Bitcoin is coming down significantly, probably below $50,000, maybe even lower than that, maybe even below $40,000.

And then I see another side of the market that's just like, it's up from here. It's going to be up literally today. I don't know. Maybe it is.

But in this case, we do see, at least in my opinion, a good chance for perhaps the worst case scenario is going to be another Twitter post that I made yesterday night, which is the herp and derp going on right here, which I mean, fair enough.

It is in play with left herp, a derp, and then a right herp over here and the neckline right around 65,000 bucks, which Bitcoin's obviously below. and that would have an implied target at $57,500.

So somewhere around there. Not going to be super exact with it. But ultimately, you know, could we see a wick down around there? Maybe even later today around an FOMC sort of event?

Perhaps, yes. But here's the thing. If Bitcoin were to play out a move down to $57,500 theoretically, what would that imply?

Well, that would imply a pretty interesting correction. It would imply about a 22% correction.

Actually, before maybe I get into that, I should also say that that potential target down to $57,500 would actually correlate quite well with the next major area to be aware of on the HPDR bands, actually coming in a little bit lower than that, to be fair. Oh, shit. Let me turn off damn telegram over there. Damn Jeets. I don't even know what a Jeet is, but it sounds funny.

Maybe it's racist. I don't know. In which case I take that back. It's not funny at all. Nothing racist is funny ever at all, period.

Anyways, yeah. So in this case, you know, that measured move would be kind of in alignment with the next level, the 78.6 level right here.

You see that Bitcoin is kind of based off of the 61.8. This is on a two day timeframe. If we go down to a daily, it's just going to be kind of the same areas, but different numbers.

Of course, the next area on the daily, which would be a little bit more in alignment with the measured move here, the implied target from a herp and derp, would actually be down around the 95% level. And that would be actually 57,500 actually right on the dot. So what does that imply? Well, that implies that if Bitcoin were to get down to this level today, for example, or wherever it comes in around, that would imply that there would be a 2.5% chance or 2.5% probability that Bitcoin would actually close below it.

So very, very high probability for at least a short-term bouncy region. If not, you know, we've kind of already seen this area today.

Damn it, fucking Telegram, shut up. seen this every day. Damn it fucking telegram. Shut up I get all these shill requests on on telegram. It's like hey, can you show my product? We'll give out a free MacBook Pro Sir, I'm a PC master race. Like what the fuck are you talking about MacBook? This is ridiculous MacBook is for fucking soy boys. It's absurd Yeah, you're a girl and you have a MacBook. It's meant to be.

Elsa is the biggest soy boy of them all and you can speak with her in the Discord, I guess, if you want to do that.

It's actually pretty fun. Anyways, but I should warn you, like for real, in the Discord, it's kind of a free-for-all.

It's kind of like no holds barred and there are a wide diverse set of opinions Some of them absolutely despicable and I will say that I will say that right out right at right at the outset It's like holy shit. You actually think that wow, I need to protect myself in some way Anyways, yes. Okay, so back on topic here You know this this level would correlate quite well if Bitcoin were to see it today or tomorrow. I imagine it's probably around the same region. And I do think that that would be the next sort of area of interest if Bitcoin essentially dumps out of the bottom of its current, you know, of its current correction. Now, here's the thing.

If we go back on over here, and as I measured out before, that would be a theoretical 22% correction, a little over 22% correction from the current high Bitcoin.

Well, that's very much in alignment with what the flavor of the cycle for this for the past little over a year now has been in terms of corrections.

We've seen the first major correction. This was back in this was back in February of 2023.

Bitcoin played out a 22.5% correction over the course of about, let's actually get that properly done there, about 22 days.

We see another correction over here starting from the highs in April of 2023. And that one taking 62 days for about a 20% corrective period.

And then we have another one right here. If I actually do this properly, it would be about 60 days for a 21.5% correction. We have another one yet again over here coming off of the back of the ETF. And that would again be a 21% correction over, let's actually get the amount of days, about 12 days. And well, if Bitcoin were to play out a correction right here, you know, to that number, that would be very much in alignment with that.

It doesn't mean that Bitcoin can't wick a little bit lower or anything like that. Of course it can. But, you know, Bitcoin typically does have these sort of flavor of the cycle type corrections.

I'm not going to go over 2017 because a million people have already done this and they actually, I'll get into that meme in a second. But what they do get right is that in 2017, there was about the same corrective percentage the whole way through, I think seven or eight times of like 35 to 40%.

And in the cycle before that, there actually was similar as well. Now, I think where people get this wrong is they're like, dude, did you know in 2017 it corrected 35% every time?

It's going to correct 35 35 every time in this cycle too probably not like obviously fucking not like jesus christ were you not paying attention for the last fucking year maybe maybe not um anyways i'm back onto it right here uh as far as timing goes you know you do see kind of a wide array of uh of numbers here but i would personally speak personally speaking i would think that this is going to be on the more longer side for this one to take.

You know, I think I could easily see this correction taking a month or two to kind of play out. Can I be wrong in that? Yeah, absolutely.

I don't have strong opinions on that. But here would be, in my opinion, the easiest way to decipher whether this correction is over or not. And if you are looking at this as a herp and derp, which, you know, kind of does work out as one, then trading back above the high of the right derp, the right shoulder at 68,918 on the index would be indicative that this one's ready to go up and to the right. And technically, there would actually be a measured move on top of that as well, assuming that Bitcoin doesn't play out the downside move right here. But, you know, it's closer to doing that than not.

So I wouldn't necessarily run with that assumption. Anyways, also of interest, if we go over here to Stochastic Momentum, the daily Stochastic Momentum has actually turned down significantly now.

So we were looking at an overall corrective phase if Bitcoin or if the Stochastic Momentum did dip below 80, which it did and closed below there.

Now it is all the way around the bearish control zone, actually. So it's made a lot of runway in a very short amount of time, which is saying that this correction is, in terms of price, is probably well underway.

We're probably closer to the low than not. Could very well be eating those words, as always. But just probably speaking um the further down that it goes here well the more and more likely it's going to be time to be looking for higher lows um but uh but still the the pivot is is well above price action at 70 500. um so as long as bitcoin's below there or below that right derp which are getting very close to each other now you know pressure's onto the downside and i would still be um i guess biased towards more likely a move towards 57 000 bucks um but uh but yeah so the longer the bitcoin kind of spends you know taking its time to get to this next slow the more and more that is going to be eaten up and volatility will cool off which has not cooled off really at all to be fair yet but that's why I do say that this can probably take you know a month or two which I think very few people are ready for I think I think a lot of people have been lulled into this high volatility period because Bitcoin's been more or less straight up since January right and realistically you know it's up for a bit sideways for a bit up for a bit sideways for more than a bit, actually.

And I think we're kind of getting ready for something like that. You know, it wouldn't even surprise me. It wouldn't be uncharacteristic for Bitcoin as well to trade sideways most of summer, actually.

I'm not saying that it's going to, but it's not out of the ordinary, thinking in terms of seasonality. Anyways, what else do I want to say about this? Yes, okay, so we got that. We got that. Just looking at my notes over here. Also, it should be known that on the daily timeframe, again, at some point there is going to be hidden bullish divergence. The daily RSI is well below the lows, what we saw even in February now, which Bitcoin was trading at 42,000 bucks. So realistically, if they want to come down here somewhere around that green moving average setting a higher low, you're gonna have hidden bullish divergence plus a reset on a lot of things plus playing out that you know corrective or you know the flavor of the cycle correction. I'd say that's probably a pretty damn good area. Could it be again I do want to say on the other side you know could it be that we get a surprise move like this? It's possible as we'll go over in a probabilistic setup in a second here, but again, in my opinion, it wouldn't really be valid as long as you're below that right derp. Anyways, okay, so we've gone through that, we've gone through that, let's now go through the probabilistic setup. So I pulled out yet another one, and this one, rather interesting, at least in my opinion, as far as the daily goes. So you've seen me set these up pretty damn easily I can set them up very very easily through the skeleton key external which is the tool that we give out for people in the crown quant automation service which you can find a link to in the description below if you're interested in you know one automated trading or two just automated back testing I mean it's kind of one in the same really but in this case I did find a very quick setup here. I'm sure that this could be further optimized on the daily timeframe that is actually fired off as of right now or as of today, today's open, which was at $61,900. So kind of where current price is at right now. That does suggest that there is a 51% probability of a nice upside move from here.

Now, you're probably going to say, Crown, what the fuck, man? That's a coin toss, okay? You could have just said that the day before. Like, no, sir, the fucking obvious...

I can't believe I have to explain this to myself. The obvious advantage of knowing this is that it didn't fire off here, you know, a few days before when Bitcoin was trading at $70,000.

You fuck. You unthinking fuck. So in this case, you know, it did fire off right here on today's open.

And also in this case, it does have an average winning trade of 22.5% and an average losing trade of 8%.

So that's a nice risk reward for basically a coin flip. I mean, that's why you do see the equity curve is up into the right over time.

I think this one even goes over the full history of Bitcoin, but let's see, I can actually ensure that it goes over the full history of Bitcoin by doing this.

While we wait for that, let's see what 22% on top of current price action would look like, as well as 8% to the downside, as that would be the risk condition And we do have the full history here. Okay, sweet. Let's get rid of that Let's go from the open 22% to the upside will put Bitcoin basically on slightly new highs at 75,000 doesn't know so you have to get there again But that would be the average trade and then to the downside 8% from the current open would put you where?

Would put you a little bit below where I'm kind of suggesting that next higher low could come in around. So that would be just below $57,000. And I'm saying $57,500 is about where I'd be looking for on a closing basis. So, you know, fair enough. In this case, this particular setup over here does imply that Bitcoin could very easily come down to this level right here Just can't close below 57 and then bounce up and then play out that move again It doesn't need to be 22% to the upside. In fact in this case Well, I don't know I don't know if I'd say in this case anything but just it doesn't need to be wherever the take profit conditions come in around is Where that happens and if you've been following these setups especially that four-hour setup you can see that usually when it says take profit like it's good probably a good time probably a good time anyways just for back testing sake we can see in the past I guess a few months here we We've only seen one, two, three, four setups.

Yeah, four setups. Three of them have been winners. One of them has been a loser. So yeah, fair enough. And actually playing this trend pretty nicely, kind of scalping this one.

Not perfectly, but good enough again. So just something to be aware of. Doesn't mean it's gonna play out again.

51% probability. Doesn't mean 100% probability. Holy shit. I can't believe I need to explain that shit on fucking YouTube. But hey, probably if I'm talking to the people who need that to be explained to, look, you don't even know what that means because it makes me lose faith in the world. And that's probably why we have casinos and people gamble and people buy lottery tickets because that's a tax on the stupid, as they say. Not that you're stupid, it's just you're uneducated in that regard. And fair enough, fair enough. I'm uneducated in many regards as well.

But in this case, you know know we're talking about probabilities here in a more serious tone and hopefully not offending anyone out there like look if you're not familiar with probabilities understand that 51 means that you know if you would have about 10 times uh if you would have 10 iterations so 10 separate trades a little over five percent a little over five no about five of those would work out in your favor so that's where the risk reward comes into your favor as well.

Obviously, you want more reward than risk if you're going to have basically a coin flip. But when you have a, you know, when you have one of those factors in your favor, it's just a matter of repeating that process over time.

It doesn't mean that this particular one is going to win out. It's a very important thing to understand if you are trading with probabilities.

And if you're not trading with probabilities I you are gambling by the definition of it right so if you're doing it like intentionally or you're not doing it intentionally but if you are successful over time then you do have some sort of probability in your favor or some sort of edge that gives you a higher probability for things to go in your favor all right that's enough evangelizing for right now I apologize about that again you can get the shill server service over here called the crown claw automation in the description below It's on sale for the biggest sale that will ever have ever for this one with 35% off of all the subscription Monthlies and yeah, we'll end things right there. This video went on for a little bit too long So I'm probably ranting and what and so that's that that's good enough for today I apologize for the bad intention jokes or they're not bad intentions, but they're just badly worded, poorly worded.

And hopefully we can come together and sing kumbaya tomorrow. So that said, take care, much love, and see you hopefully Thursday.