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"content": " \n\r\n\t\t\t \n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n\n\n\n19 March 2008\n\nfrom\r\n\t\t\t\nBBC Website\n\r\n\t\t\t \n\r\n\t\t\t \n\nThe imagination of the science fiction \r\n\t\t\tauthor Sir \n\nArthur C. Clarke bubbled over \r\n\t\t\twith ideas about the future of science, technology and human \r\n\t\t\tsociety. \n\r\n\t\t\t \n\nHere, BBC science and technology \r\n\t\t\tstaff look at some that came true, and some that did not.\r\n \n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n\n\n1. SPACE \r\n\t\t\tELEVATOR\n\r\n\t\t\tA space elevator consists of a ribbon of material strung between a \r\n\t\t\tspacecraft and an anchor on Earth. The tether would be used to \r\n\t\t\ttransport material from Earth into space.\n\r\n\t\t\t \n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n\n\nSpace \r\n\t\t\televators would link Earth to objects in geostationary orbit\n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n\r\n\t\t\tSir Arthur first talked about the concept in his 1979 novel The \r\n\t\t\tFountains of Paradise, in which engineers construct a space \r\n\t\t\televator on top of a mountain peak on a fictional island.\n\r\n\t\t\tHe embellished these concepts in his 1981 technical paper\r\n\t\t\t\nThe Space Elevator: Thought Experiment, or Key \r\n\t\t\tto the Universe? Although he brought the concept of a \r\n\t\t\tspace elevator to a wider audience, the idea was first conceived by \r\n\t\t\tRussian scientist Konstantin Tsiolkovsky in 1895.\n\r\n\t\t\tThe idea may sound like it should remain in the realm of science \r\n\t\t\tfiction, but many take it seriously.\n\r\n\t\t\tNASA has had a long-running space elevator research project, and \r\n\t\t\trecent developments with carbon\r\n\t\t\t\nnano-tubes have raised the \r\n\t\t\tpossibility of developing a tether strong enough to connect a ship \r\n\t\t\tto Earth - previously one of the key challenges.\n\r\n\t\t\tFor the last three years there has even been a competition, run by \r\n\t\t\tthe Elevator:2010 project, which awards prizes of $500,000 to \r\n\t\t\thelp develop the technology.\r\n \n\r\n\t\t\t \n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n\n2. MILLENNIUM \r\n\t\t\tBUG\n\r\n\t\t\tThe millennium bug gripped governments and businesses as the \r\n\t\t\tcountdown to the year 2000 began.\n\r\n\t\t\tThe \nY2K bug, as it was also known, \r\n\t\t\treferred to potential problems arising from older computer systems \r\n\t\t\tthat could not recognize 2000 as the year coming after 1999.\n\r\n\t\t\t \n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n\n\n\nSome of Sir \r\n\t\t\tArthur's predictions date back to the 1950s\n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n\r\n\t\t\tPeople were warned not to fly over the New Year, and were told that \r\n\t\t\tthere could be potential problems with banking and even gas and \r\n\t\t\telectricity supplies. In interviews, Sir Arthur said he outlined \r\n\t\t\twhat may have been, \n\n\"the first account, outside the \r\n\t\t\t\ttechnical literature, of the now-dreaded millennium bug, its \r\n\t\t\t\tcause and its cure.\"\n\nThe prediction was made in a chapter of \r\n\t\t\this 1990 novel The Ghost from the Grand Banks.\n\r\n\t\t\tIn the end, the Y2K bug had little effect on businesses as the \r\n\t\t\tclocks struck midnight.\r\n \n\r\n\t\t\t \n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n\n3. SPACE \r\n\t\t\tGUARD\n\r\n\t\t\tThis Clarke prediction not only came true, it did so with the name \r\n\t\t\tthat he bestowed in his 1972 novel Rendezvous with Rama.\n\nThe eponymous rendezvous occurs in 2131, when astronomers \r\n\t\t\tworking with Project Spaceguard, Earth's defence system \r\n\t\t\tagainst asteroid strikes, detect an alien probe hurtling towards the \r\n\t\t\tSolar System.\n\r\n\t\t\t \n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n\n\nThe Hayabusa \r\n\t\t\tprobe landed on the potato-shaped asteroid Itokawa\n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n\nAlien probes may not be frequent visitors in reality, but\r\n\t\t\t\nasteroids and meteorites are; hence \r\n\t\t\ta 1992 NASA investigation into how to monitor these visiting bodies \r\n\t\t\tand assess the threat they may pose.\n\r\n\t\t\tIt was named the Spaceguard Survey. The primary aim of US \r\n\t\t\tpolicy now is to map 90% of Near Earth Objects (NEOs).\n\r\n\t\t\tBritain also has a national information service for NEOs, although \r\n\t\t\tlobby groups such as - you guessed it - Spaceguard UK would like the \r\n\t\t\tgovernment to commit more resources to the issue.\n\r\n\t\t\tIn The Hammer of God, Sir Arthur envisaged that a rogue \r\n\t\t\tasteroid could be deflected from its Earth-bound course by landing \r\n\t\t\ton it and fitting thrusters.\n\r\n\t\t\tIn 2005 the Japanese\r\n\t\t\t\nHayabusa probe did land on asteroid \r\n\t\t\tItokawa, though deploying thrusters and attempting a deflection is \r\n\t\t\tstill science fiction.\r\n \n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n\n\n4. \r\n\t\t\tCOMMUNICATIONS SATELLITES\n\r\n\t\t\tArthur C. Clarke was not the first to suggest using geostationary \r\n\t\t\torbits - his ideas built on earlier work by Herman Potocnik \r\n\t\t\tand Konstantin Tsiolkovsky.\n\r\n\t\t\tHis conceptual leap, outlined in a 1945 article in Wireless World \r\n\t\t\tmagazine, was to propose using a set of satellites in \r\n\t\t\tgeostationary orbit to form a global communications network.\n\r\n\t\t\t \n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n\n\nGraphic of \r\n\t\t\torbits\n\nImage: BBC\n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n1. Geostationary \r\n\t\t\t\t\tsatellites \"parked\" over equator travel at same direction \r\n\t\t\t\t\tand speed as Earth revolves. Each \"footprint\" covers 40% of \r\n\t\t\t\t\tglobe. Directional antennae are aimed and fixed in position \r\n\t\t\t\t\twith no need for tracking\r\n\t\t\t\t\t2. Satellites at lower orbits must travel faster than Earth \r\n\t\t\t\t\trevolves to avoid being pulled out of orbit by gravity, so \r\n\t\t\t\t\tthey need tracking. Many do not follow an equatorial path\n\nThe key property of a satellite orbiting \r\n\t\t\tprecisely 35,786 km (22,240 miles) above the equator is its speed, \r\n\t\t\twhich mimics the rotation of the Earth below. So it remains always \r\n\t\t\tover the same place.\n\r\n\t\t\tThe first satellite was placed into geostationary orbit in 1964, \r\n\t\t\tjust 19 years after Sir Arthur's paper. Syncom 3 orbited above the \r\n\t\t\tPacific Ocean and beamed pictures from the Tokyo Olympics to the US \r\n\t\t\tlater that year - the first trans-Pacific TV transmission.\n\r\n\t\t\tNetworks of satellites in this orbit now provide services including \r\n\t\t\tphone calls, data transmission, and TV signals for most of the \r\n\t\t\tworld's inhabited regions.\n\r\n\t\t\tMeteorological and ground observation satellites also follow the \r\n\t\t\tpath Sir Arthur mapped out, and the term Clarke Orbit is \r\n\t\t\tsometimes used to describe their trajectory.\n\r\n\t\t\tWhat he did not foresee was the development of the transistor and \r\n\t\t\tlater the integrated circuit, which mean satellites are far smaller \r\n\t\t\tthan the objects he sketched out, which would have used valve \r\n\t\t\ttechnology and needed regular maintenance.\r\n \n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n\n\n5. ATOMIC \r\n\t\t\tTRAVEL\n\nPrelude to Space was not only Arthur C. Clarke's first \r\n\t\t\tpublished science fiction novel, it was the prelude to a career that \r\n\t\t\tproduced a number of suggestions about how humankind might journey \r\n\t\t\tinto space.\n\r\n\t\t\tThe 1951 book envisaged bringing nuclear energy into use, powering a \r\n\t\t\tcraft named Prometheus.\n\r\n\t\t\t \n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n\n\nNasa's Jimo \r\n\t\t\tconcept would have sent nuclear power into space\n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n\r\n\t\t\tArguably the author was out-imagined by US planners in the early \r\n\t\t\tdays of the Cold War, whose \r\n\t\t\t\nProject Orion concept involved \r\n\t\t\tcraft propelled by detonating a series of nuclear bombs behind them.\n\r\n\t\t\tOrion did not get off the ground; but life eventually imitated Sir \r\n\t\t\tArthur's art in the Soviet Union, which launched a number of \r\n\t\t\tsatellites powered by nuclear reactors. \r\n\t\t\t\nCosmos 954 crashed in Canada \r\n\t\t\tin 1978, with contamination of the surrounding area.\n\r\n\t\t\tNASA revived the nuclear concept a few years ago with\r\n\t\t\t\nProject Prometheus, a research \r\n\t\t\tinitiative that would have sent nuclear-powered probes out to \r\n\t\t\texplore the cosmos.\n\r\n\t\t\tIts most heralded component was the Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter \r\n\t\t\t(Jimo), \r\n\t\t\twhich would use its huge power source to zoom from one exciting \r\n\t\t\tJovian satellite to the next looking for water and life.\n\r\n\t\t\tBut NASA's Prometheus has died; and there is little sign of any \r\n\t\t\tspace agency taking the nuclear option further.\r\n \n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n\n\n6. \r\n\t\t\tEARTHQUAKE PREVENTION\n\r\n\t\t\tIn Richter 10, his 1990 collaboration with science fiction \r\n\t\t\tauthor Mike McQuay, Sir Arthur tells the story of an \r\n\t\t\tattempt to predict and prevent earthquakes.\n\r\n\t\t\tThe plan is to \"spot weld\" the earth's tectonic plates at 50 \r\n\t\t\tstrategic locations, stopping their movement and therefore stopping \r\n\t\t\tthe catastrophic splits that cause earthquakes.\n\r\n\t\t\tThe welding was to be done by detonating powerful nuclear bombs deep \r\n\t\t\tinside the Earth.\n\r\n\t\t\t \n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n\n\nHow \r\n\t\t\tearthquakes happen\n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n\r\n\t\t\tThe plan is initiated to prevent a huge quake splitting California \r\n\t\t\tfrom the North American mainland. At the moment this scenario \r\n\t\t\tremains almost completely in science fiction.\n\r\n\t\t\tEarthquake prediction is an inexact science with no standard, \r\n\t\t\treproducible technique used by scientists. In addition, tectonic \r\n\t\t\tforces are huge, able to build mountains, create deep ocean basins \r\n\t\t\tand tear continents apart.\n\r\n\t\t\t\"Spot welding\" an earthquake fault would probably have very little \r\n\t\t\tlong term effect when pitted against these monstrous movements.\n\r\n\t\t\tIn any case, the plan outlined in Richter 10 is foiled when a \r\n\t\t\tterrorist attack destroys the facility where the work is being \r\n\t\t\tcarried out.\r\n \n\n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n\n\n7. BRAIN \r\n\t\t\tBACKUP\n\r\n\t\t\tSir Arthur often explored the idea of backing up or transferring the \r\n\t\t\thuman brain on to a computer.\n\r\n\t\t\tIn his book 3001: The Final Odyssey he wrote of future \r\n\t\t\tbeings: \n\n\"As soon as their machines were \r\n\t\t\t\tbetter than their bodies, it was time to move.\"\r\n\t\t\t\t\"First their brains, and then their thoughts alone, they \r\n\t\t\t\ttransferred into shining new homes of metal and of gemstone.\"\r\n\t\t\t\t\"In these they roamed the galaxy. They no longer built \r\n\t\t\t\tspaceships - they were spaceships\"\n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n\n\nRadio Four\n\n\n\nSir Arthur C Clarke - Science and Fiction\n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n\r\n\t\t\tIt was an idea he thought would be useful for people wanting to pass \r\n\t\t\ttheir memories and personalities on at the end of their lives.\n\n\"When their bodies begin to \r\n\t\t\t\tdeteriorate you transfer their thoughts so their personalities \r\n\t\t\t\twould be immortal,\" he told the BBC in 2005. \"Just save it on a \r\n\t\t\t\tCD-Rom and plug it in - simple!\"\n\nAlthough scientists have not quite \r\n\t\t\treached this stage yet, projects are starting to lay the \r\n\t\t\tfoundations.\n\r\n\t\t\tFor example Gordon Bell, a researcher at Microsoft, is \r\n\t\t\tworking on a project called \n\nMyLifeBits which aims to \r\n\t\t\tdigitally store, \n\n\"a lifetime's worth of articles, \r\n\t\t\t\tbooks, cards, CDs, letters, memos, papers, photos, pictures, \r\n\t\t\t\tpresentations, home movies, videotaped lectures, and voice \r\n\t\t\t\trecordings\"\n\nThe latest version of the project also \r\n\t\t\tallows him to capture phone calls, instant messenger transcripts, \r\n\t\t\ttelevision, and radio to build up a virtual surrogate memory of his \r\n\t\t\tlife.\r\n \n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n\n\n8. PEOPLE \r\n\t\t\tFREEZING\n\r\n\t\t\tArthur C. Clarke's preoccupation with interplanetary space travel \r\n\t\t\tled him to consider how humans could survive for the long periods \r\n\t\t\tneeded to cross vast tracts of space.\n\r\n\t\t\tOne of the answers he came up with, outlined in the story The \r\n\t\t\tSongs of Distant Earth, was cryogenic suspension.\n\r\n\t\t\t \n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n\n\nCryogenic \r\n\t\t\tstorage still has a number of issues to overcome\n\r\n\t\t\t \n\n\r\n\t\t\tThe plot sees the human race having to leave Earth in a convoy of \r\n\t\t\tspaceships as the Sun is about to explode.\n\r\n\t\t\tCurrently, \r\n\t\t\t\ncryogenic preservation of living people is impossible, \r\n\t\t\tand in many countries it is illegal to attempt it. More than 150 \r\n\t\t\tpeople, mainly in the US, have been frozen in liquid nitrogen after \r\n\t\t\ttheir death.\n\r\n\t\t\tBut even the companies running these projects admit that freezing \r\n\t\t\tcannot be reversed and there is no proof that it would preserve \r\n\t\t\tpeoples' identities, even though there is evidence that brain \r\n\t\t\tstructure can survive the process.\n\r\n\t\t\tIn medicine, very cold conditions are used to store organs before \r\n\t\t\ttransplantation and to store eggs and sperm, and as a way of \r\n\t\t\tremoving warts. \n\r\n\t\t\t \n \n\n\n\n\nReturn to Hi-Tech/Top Secret Projects\n\n\n\n\nReturn to Prophecies, Predictions and The \r\n\t\t\tFuture\n \n " |
