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Dow Jones Extends Losing Streak As Apple Sells Off; Tesla Hits New Low Amid Elon Musk Twitter Poll

Dow Jones futures were higher late Monday. Apple shares sold off again and are approaching new lows, while Tesla stock hit a new low.

Yahoo

Dow Jones Extends Losing Streak As Apple Sells Off; Tesla Hits New Low Amid Elon Musk Twitter Poll Dow Jones futures were higher early Tuesday. Apple shares sold off again and are approaching new lows, while Tesla stock hit a new low. Dow Jones futures were higher early Tuesday. Apple shares sold off again and are approaching new lows, while Tesla stock hit a new low.

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Unusual Options Activity in Apple, Home Depot and 8 Other Stocks

Fintel

SHARE PRICE EXTENDED |Day's Range||-| |52 Week Range||-| |Beverages| Bret Kenwell Bret Kenwell has been publicly writing about and analyzing the stock market for more than 10 years. What started off as fundamental analysis of strong businesses has morphed into a rigorous process that blends both fundamental and technical analysis. While he still seeks out the strong businesses and dependable dividends he was attracted to early on, Bret has narrowed his focus to technology, automotive, and high-quality, high-growth businesses. In that effort, he seeks Future Blue Chips — which is also the name of his website and newsletter. Bret’s writing has sent him to unique places and events, like auto shows and industry conferences. Those excursions allowed him to fully grasp what Nvidia was showcasing at its GTC conferences and see some of the impressive updates on display at the automotive show. Through this he gained incredible insight into, and conviction in, what have become some of today’s best-performing stocks. It’s also allowed him to meet some very smart, very talented investors. Perhaps more than anything, their lessons, findings, and techniques have found a way into his process over the years. There are a million different ways to make money in the stock market. To find the process that works best for you is long and filled with setbacks. Bret’s hope is that part of his process can become part of yours; and together become better investors. Unusual Options Activity in Apple, Home Depot and 8 Other Stocks Apple, Home Depot, Merck and others lit up our unusual options activity this week. Many investors brush off unusual options activity, but others like to “follow the flow.” When large investors — like hedge funds for example — make big moves in the options world, it shows up in a very interesting way. We refer to this as “unusual options activity” and it serves as a way to see what the big investors are doing. Luckily there’s a leaderboard of options activity for both calls and puts and it helps us track all of the outsized volume. There’s actually a leaderboard for ETFs too. With that in mind, let’s look at the stocks that stuck out the most on the call side and the put side. Apple (AAPL) Starting with the biggest of them all, we have Apple (US:AAPL). The stock recently hit a one-month low, but it still commands a market cap in excess of $2.1 trillion. Perhaps because it’s hitting new recent lows, someone appears to be loading up on protection. That’s as a series of put-buying hit the tape on Friday, Dec. 16th. That’s as more than $50 million in premium was paid for the January 2023 $170 puts, which were more than $30 in-the-money. At the same time, $15.5 million was paid for the January 2023 $230 puts. That said, there was an absolute flurry of heavy options activity in the January puts, so it could be part of a more complicated spread. Let’s also not forget that it was “quad-witch” expiration on Friday and a lot of this action could be a result of that. Gilead Sciences (GILD) Coming in at No. 1 on the unusual options leaderboard this week, Gilead Sciences (US:GILD) made a splash as one bullish trader was lighting up the January 2023 $62.5 calls. Over a span of several purchases, they bought almost $12 million worth of the calls, which expire in just over one month from now. With the stock trading at $88 at the time, this was a deep-in-the-money play. At the same time, someone was busy buying even more than that, gobbling up millions of dollars worth of the $65 calls that expired on Dec. 16th. Merck (MRK) Showing up as No. 2 on this week's leaderboard, Merck (US:MRK) turned a few heads as select healthcare stocks continue to perform well. That’s as someone paid more than $15 million for the January 2023 $90 calls. At the time, Merck stock was trading near $111 a share, putting these calls deep-in-the-money. The trade came on Dec. 13th, just one day before the stock hit new all-time highs. This looks like a bullish bet on the trend continuing, potentially into year-end. Home Depot (HD) Home Depot (US:HD) comes in at No. 3 on this week’s leaderboard. That’s after a bullish put trade hit the tape on Dec. 15th. Shortly after noon, $4.4 million in put premium was collected by selling the February $290 puts, while shares were trading near $325. About 20 minutes before that, the same puts were sold, collecting more than $2.57 million in premium. In total, almost $7 million in premium was collected for this trade. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Often overlooked for Nvidia (US:NVDA), Intel (US:INTC) and other more well-known semiconductor companies, investors seem to forget Taiwan Semiconductor (US:TSM) is worth more than $400 billion. Further, Warren Buffett has been a buyer of this stock. With just two days until expiration, someone scooped up almost $5 million in the Dec. 16th $65 calls. The calls were deep-in-the-money, with shares trading above $80 at the time. Morgan Stanley (MS) Morgan Stanley (US:MS) is the only bank stock that made the list and comes after someone made a long-dated bullish bet. That’s as one trader bought $3.19 million worth of the January 2025 $95 calls. Those calls were slightly out-of-the-money with Morgan Stanley trading at $92.65 at the time, and expire in more than 760 days. Phillip Morris (PM) Phillip Morris (US:PM) came in at No. 7 on this week's leaderboard after one trader made a bullish put trade. With shares trading at roughly $100, one trader sold $2.62 million worth of the March $90 puts. Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) Like Merck, Bristol-Myers Squibb (US:BMY) recently hit new all-time highs this month, but the stock has pulled back hard over the last few weeks. Shares have fallen about 10% while declining in 8 of the past 10 sessions. The two “up days” in that stretch came on gains of just 0.01% and 0.08%, respectively. One trader believes that pullback is an opportunity on the long side. On Dec. 15th, they sold $569,000 worth of the February $72.50 puts, which were slightly out-of-the-money as BMY stock was trading at $76. A day later, someone bought almost $170,000 worth of the $75 calls expiring on Jan. 6th, so they are looking for a bounce as well. Walmart (WMT) Like Bristol-Myers Squibb, traders are looking for a bullish opportunity in Walmart (US:WMT) after the recent pullback. That’s as one trader collected $510,000 in premium for selling the September $125 puts. These puts were far out-of-the-money and currently expire in more than 120 days. Coca-Cola (KO) Last but not least, we have Coca-Cola (US:KO), which also had bullish put selling taking place this week. Someone sold over $518,000 worth of the March $65 puts. Expiring in about 90 days, these puts were slightly in-the-money. Stories by Bret Kenwell 6 Stocks With Heavy Call Flow: ENPH, META, MRNA, MSFT, NVDA, QCOM Many investors don’t pay attention to unusual options activity because options are too confusing and there can be multiple implications from a single data point. Unusual Options Flow in KRE, QQQ, GDX and 3 Other ETFs Many investors brush off unusual options activity, but others like to “follow the flow. Tech Stocks AI, NVDA, BABA Dominate Unusual Options Activity Unusual options activity is often ignored by many investors, but for some, it plays a key role in their trading strategies and approach. We're Seeing KRE, ARKK, SLV and 4 Other ETFs With Unusual Options Activity Like stocks, exchange-traded funds can have unusual options activity too. Tesla, Disney and Nvidia Join 7 Others Showing Unusual Options Activity While many investors brush off options, many others like to “follow the flow. Amid Industry Turmoil, Regional Banking ETF Leads Unusual Options Activity Many investors don’t pay attention to options because they find them too confusing and there can be multiple implications from a single data point. Unusual Options Activity in Tesla, Nvidia and 5 Other Stocks Many investors brush off unusual options activity, but others like to “follow the flow. 10 Stocks With Unusual Options Activity: INTC, TSLA, AMD and More Many investors brush off or ignore options trading because options are complex and misunderstood. 10 ETFs With Heavy Call Options Flow: EEM, HYG, UNG, FXI and More While many investors brush off options, many others like to “follow the flow. Unusual Options Activity: BABA, INTC, F and 7 Others While many investors brush off options, many others like to “follow the flow.

AAPL

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Why Apple Stock Flopped on Monday

In a generally gloomy environment for tech stocks, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) on Monday suffered its latest price drop. The company's shares lost 1.6% of their value, eclipsing the 0.9% slide of the S&P 500 on the day, due to that anti-tech sentiment, plus the latest legal hit over the way it manages its mobile software marketplace. In advance of major legislative changes in the European Union (EU), a French court slapped Apple with a fine of just over 1 million euros ($1.06 million) over the company's App Store.

Yahoo

Why Apple Stock Flopped on Monday In a generally gloomy environment for tech stocks, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) on Monday suffered its latest price drop. The company's shares lost 1.6% of their value, eclipsing the 0.9% slide of the S&P 500 on the day, due to that anti-tech sentiment, plus the latest legal hit over the way it manages its mobile software marketplace. In advance of major legislative changes in the European Union (EU), a French court slapped Apple with a fine of just over 1 million euros ($1.06 million) over the company's App Store.

AAPL

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Sports streaming: ‘The math is difficult’ in negotiations and viewership count, analyst says

Macquarie Group Senior Media Tech Analyst Tim Nollen joins Yahoo Finance Live to explain the difficulties behind gauging viewership and other data when it comes to sports streaming content.

Yahoo

Sports streaming: ‘The math is difficult’ in negotiations and viewership count, analyst says Macquarie Group Senior Media Tech Analyst Tim Nollen joins Yahoo Finance Live to explain the difficulties behind gauging viewership and other data when it comes to sports streaming content. Video Transcript [AUDIO LOGO] SEAN SMITH: Another focus in 2023 in the streaming landscape is going to be sports because it has emerged as a key battleground for streamers. Platforms willing to spend big bucks on rights. But there may be a limit just in terms of how much they're willing to pay. There's a new report from Puck, and that says that Apple is now dropping out of the NFL's Sunday Ticket negotiations because they don't, quote, "see the logic." Lots of questions about the price and exactly what they would be getting if they did pay up for that price. So to bring in more on this, we want to bring in Tim Nollen, Macquarie Group senior media tech analyst. And Tim, let's just start with the streaming landscape, the role of sports here, the implications that this means if Apple, in fact, is now out of these negotiations. How does that set up the industry heading into the new year? TIM NOLLEN: Well, I won't speak to Apple specifically. It's not a stock that I cover, but I did see the news this morning as well that they're backing out of the Sunday Ticket, which, of course, is, I mean, it's extremely expensive package of content. You know, Apple does have a few other bits and pieces of rights, I mean, actually fairly substantial Major League Soccer deal as well as a little bit of exclusive Major League Baseball. But the sports world is moving towards streaming now. You know, you had Disney launch ESPN Plus already a few years ago, really as kind of a complementary adjacent service to the ESPN linear package. And at the time, it was positioned as well. We have so much sports content with being ESPN, so much so that we can't put it all onto our linear channel. So we're going to launch the streaming service. And have a lot of the extra stuff out of market games and some maybe less popular sports. And ESPN Plus has done, I would say, quite well. I've always viewed this as a precursor to one day having a fully over-the-top ESPN. I still don't think we're there yet. We've got some major sports deals that have been done in the past. NFL actually has the new contract starting next year. Major League Baseball is in the midst. Now, the one big contract that is coming up is the NBA. And ESPN and the Turner networks split most of that. And so that will be interesting to watch over the next, let's say, a year to two, whatever the contract negotiation time frame is, to what extent the streaming services will actually incorporate more rights to that and how indeed they would try to make more money out of it. You know, at ESPN, of course, this could be another major sports right that could push them a little bit closer to thinking about either a package of sports being exclusively over the top or maybe all of ESPN eventually. And then Warner Brothers Discovery, of course, runs HBO Max. And they also own the Turner networks. And as HBO Max is trying to better firmly established itself as a must-have streaming service, to include some really high-quality, high-end demand sports content within that could be very, very interesting for that platform. So that's something to watch over the course of the next year or whatever the negotiation terms are for the NBA. DAVID BRIGG: I want to circle back on the NFL deal, but first to follow up on the NBA, do you expect ESPN to lock that deal? And if they do not, what does it mean for them going forward? TIM NOLLEN: It's an important-- it's an important package of rights, both for ESPN and for the Turner networks. And of course, both companies are still milking their linear channels. You know, it's-- I mean, sports is a very important part of basically having a linear presence at all. So my guess is they do their best to try to keep that contract. They point to the legacy, the history of doing well with it for the league for themselves. And they try to incorporate more streaming rights into the contract. The math though is difficult. I mean, it's high-priced rights. The NBA's probably going to be looking to at least double the price of the total package. You know, linear subscribers are falling by the wayside. Streaming subscribers are still growing. It's competitive, but they're still growing. And over time, more sports could help to attract more users to those platforms. How they'll make enough money, you know, to justify double or whatever the price increases? You know, you'd think they'd have to double their cost of streaming, so the price for the streaming services. So another trick to actually try to make this work is better advertising technology. You know, ad tech is actually a very vibrant field. And there's a lot of money to be made by targeting advertising effectively. A lot of work still to be done in getting that through, but that is one way that the streaming services could try to make more money to try to at least get close to where they were once on the linear side. - Hey, Tim, speaking of ads I want to mention Netflix here, that new ad to your product. Do people actually want that, or are willing to pay less in order to suffer through ads? Like, I don't think I can do that. TIM NOLLEN: Well, you know, it's $3 less than the base-- than the base was up until this came on. I don't know about you, but what I found very interesting was, and I'm a Netflix subscriber, I never once got a promotion for the new ad supported tier. I was very surprised about that. Maybe it's just me. Maybe I missed it. But you would have thought they would have been promoting this more to try to get people to sign up for it. But I think Netflix is in a bit of a quandary here in getting the service off the ground, in that, you know, they are diluting themselves by trying to convert their US subscriber base to an ad-supported plan. It's $3 less per month. That's $3 less per subscriber right there. They have to make up for that with ad sales. To have good ad sales, you have to have a large audience. I mean, everyone says, oh, Netflix is a huge. It's 74 million subscribers in the US and Canada. The current number of paying advertising-supported subscribers, whatever that number is right now, is a tiny, tiny, tiny fraction of that. So advertisers are only getting however many hundreds thousand-- I don't know how many subscribers there are-- in the first six weeks. So the first trick is to sort of get to a balance where they have enough subscribers to that advertising tier that they can go out to advertisers with that audience figure and then be able to sell ads on the back of that. So you know, it-- my best guess is it just takes some time. 2023 for Netflix may be, I don't know, neutral-ish, let's say, in terms of incremental revenue. It's not really till '24 or '25 that they might actually start to make some incremental revenue from the ad tier. SEAN SMITH: And Tim, what happens if Netflix, in fact, isn't able to capitalize off the ad tier and loses some more momentum going forward? How much trouble then is Netflix going to be in? And then to push that point even further, the odds of Netflix potentially merging with another player in the space. Do you think that is likely over the next year or two? TIM NOLLEN: In terms of failing, I don't think they will. Although, you know, how do you define what success really means? They've never put any sort of targets, you know, or guidance out there in terms of what they expect the service to deliver. You know, we have estimated at a base case, they can add an incremental you know, single-digit percentage to their revenue. So it's not a completely transformational game-changer for Netflix, but it should be revenue-enhancing. And because advertising is very high-margin business, it should be even more earnings-enhancing for Netflix. Again, over time, we really don't expect much in 2023, but '24 and '25. If it fails, meaning if they dilute themselves and they're not able to attract the ADVERTISING they're going to have to get more aggressive with how they do that advertising. So my point on advertising technology is rather than using traditional TV type of insertion orders, they have to go to fully programmatic ad placements, using the data at hand, using the technology, using the ad tech partners that they could get to know better to really deliver those larger audiences and those higher value of ads. If this doesn't work, you know, I think the stock will suffer because part of the recovery story for Netflix stock is getting this advertising tier to work. DAVID BRIGG: Interesting road ahead. No doubt. Tim Nollen, good to see you. Great information. Appreciate that.

AAPL

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Why Apple Is A High Risk Stock Today

I have been long Apple since 2011, when I first wrote it up on Seeking Alpha. That is, until 2022. Find out why I sold my last Apple shares early this year.

SeekingAlpha

Why Apple Is A High Risk Stock Today Summary - Either personally or professionally I have been long Apple (AAPL) since 2011, when we first wrote it up on Seeking Alpha. - That is, until 2022. We sold our last Apple shares early this year, as the risk reward now appears quite asymmetric to the downside. - The best performing factors in the past decade have been size and growth, which Apple has displayed in spades. - However, the forward winners are likely to be small/mid caps and value names. Apple certainly does not fit into that category. - Below we highlight why Apple is a sell, with earnings growth likely slowing rapidly and the stock still trading at 23x earnings. - Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Cash Flow Compounders get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More » Summary At Cash Flow Compounders we have detailed why we view the next cycle of outperformers to be primarily small cap value equities. Big cap growth continues to trade at exceedingly rich multiples, while midcap and small cap names are at 20 year record cheap levels (see our recent blog post here). Smaller names already are likely pricing in a mild to moderate recession in our view. Among tech/growth, near term the bubble has largely deflated, but valuations remain still above long term averages in many cases. In the overvalued/over-owned bucket is Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). We view AAPL as a lower risk short/underweight for those hoping to capture big cap de-rating/slowing growth. Unlike other bad business models we have written up, Apple is a high quality Compounder with a track record we like. In fact, we have been long Apple in either funds I manage or personally for well over a decade. I first wrote up Apple in on Seeking Alpha in 2011 here. I loved the stock, frankly, writing at the time “who wouldn’t pay a 9.4x multiple (or 11% FCF yield) for a stock that is growing by 30-40% and generating ROE’s of 74%.” I wrote it up multiple times in the ensuing years. Today, AAPL trades at a 23x multiple with growth anticipated to be 5%. And I am still a big Tim Cook fan; he is perhaps the best operator/CEO on the planet. In FY 2011, the company earned $1.58 in EPS. In FY 2023 (year ending September), EPS is expected to be $6.24. That is an 11 year CAGR of 13.2% in EPS, quite an impressive feat for such a large company. Importantly, the stock is up almost 11x in that time, even though earnings are only up 3.9x. The ubiquity of their products, massive free cash flow generation and dominance in iPhones and iGadgets certainly makes for a compelling case to own this stock in any account. Buy and hold has worked well with AAPL. Not to mention that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) owns 5.75% of the stock, a huge endorsement of Tim Cook and Apple. But the company faces many headwinds going forward, including cycle risk (upgrade and economic), valuation risk, regulatory risk, China risk, and slowing growth. We will outline each below. We sold our last shares of Apple early this year and caution investors that forward returns look quite unattractive from current levels. In our bull case, if we assume 2026 EPS estimates of $8.00 (above Street estimates of $7.63), and a healthy P/E multiple of 20x, we only see upside to $160, or 5% annual returns for Apple shareholders. On the downside, it seems unlikely that Apple can keep its premium valuation forever. P/E multiples are collapsing all around Apple and among tech stocks in particular. Given slowing forward growth rates (under 5% over the next three years per Street estimates), and higher interest rates today, we deem fair value at a 10% premium to the S&P, or about 17.8x. That implies almost 20% downside in a year, or a $110 on the stock. Below we highlight risks worth considering. But first the cap structure for a quick background. Cycle risk Apple revenue and earnings tend to go through boom and bust periods, just like any other company. Above we highlight in yellow the years post a phone upgrade cycle. Typically, the transition from 3G to 4G, 4G to 5G et cetera have been big tailwinds to iPhone purchases. Upgrade cycles spur revenue growth of course, only to be followed by disappointing revenue/EPS growth and weak stock market performance the following year. Analysts forecast only 3% revenue growth next year and 2% EPS growth. But, it could be far lower in 2023, especially should we have a recession. Note revenue declined in 2016 and 2019 after upgrade cycles ended. 5G rollouts have been ongoing since 2020. Indeed, the promises of 5G are incredible, with data throughput speeds of at least 1 gigabit per second (5x faster than current 4G speeds). Ultimately 5G could reach 20G/second speeds. Latency (delays) is also virtually eliminated from 100 milliseconds to only 1 millisecond with 5G. The problem is that this could be the end all of upgrade cycles. Movies that took 7 minutes to download will only take 8 seconds with 5G speeds. And that is for ultra high definition 4k movies. How much faster will iPhone users need their internet to operate? Users visually will not be able to distinguish movies at much better than 4k levels, especially on a smaller device. The use case for better than 5G speeds is largely limited to big data (self-driving cars perhaps being one application). But speeds beyond these are not likely to be ones you will ever need on your phone or laptop. Below are iPhone unit sales which have been strong as 5G networks have been rolling out over the past 2-3 years. But Apple iPhone sales are likely at cyclical peaks, with an estimated 259 million units shipped last year (FY ending September 2022). Indeed, for the December 2022 quarter, Morgan Stanley (MS) estimates that iPhone shipments will fall 11% year over year (to 75.5 million units). While again this fall is partly due to supply chain issues, the cycle does appear to be weakening. In 2023-2025, average analyst EPS growth estimates looks quite unimpressive at only 4.8% per year. The large of large numbers applies to Apple too. Growth gets tougher the bigger you become. Comps are very tough next year. Interestingly, many investors view Apple as a consumer staple, deserving of a 20-23x multiple as a recession would not impact them as much as other technology players. We view this as not terribly likely. The secular growth story is fading especially as 5G buying demand is decelerating. Just because we have not seen a tech downcycle in a 3-4 year doesn't mean that it isn't out there. A weak upgrade cycle might indeed shock some investors. Supply Chain Risk A full 90% of Apple’s products are manufactured in China (and 98% of iPhones). With mounting tensions between the US and China plus ongoing lockdowns there (which do not appear to be abating as zero-COVID policies remain intact), there have recently been numerous delays in manufacturing Apple phones. Indeed, on November 6th, Apple reported that production of the iPhone 14s were at “significantly reduced capacity.” While we view these as temporary headwinds, the reality is that Apple is desperate to reduce its manufacturing footprint in China. Their 2025 goal is to migrate 25% of their production to India. But even then, 2/3s of production will come from China. Any global hiccup from the Chinese Communist Party, tariffs, crackdowns on Apple manufacturers, or especially risks related to Taiwan would be devastating to Apple. Nobody thought Russia would invade Ukraine, but the risk of China going after Taiwan is real and only a matter of time in our view. Also, 19% of Apple's revenue is within China. While military escalation surrounding Taiwan is probably a low probability risk, it is one that the market is entirely ignoring. The pain that stocks like Alibaba (BABA) and Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) have struggled with is one to pay attention to. Pandemic Demand Pull Forward Certainly, a lot of demand was pulled forward during the pandemic. Services experienced particularly high growth as online shopping spurred food purchases online and a surge in app downloading. As of today, consumers likely have purchased the Mac’s and iPads that they probably need for a while. iPhone sales did not really gather steam until 2021, but as we noted, iPhone unit growth will likely struggle with the 5G upgrade cycle now a couple years in. So far revenue has been quite resilient. Even Apple's CFO said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that September quarter sales were "better than we anticipated at the beginning of the quarter." But Apple faces very tough comps heading into 2023 and consumers could also reduce spending on expensive Apple products in a recession. Risk to Apple App Store and Services One element to the Apple bull story are its services, which are high margin and have been growing faster than any other part of the portfolio. Services totals 20% of revenue at Apple, and probably are 25-30% of earnings. Korea, the UK, the US, and the EU are taking a hard look at the 30% commissions that app developers pay to Apple. If you open a coffee shop and sell through your app on Apple, Apple will get 30% of your revenue (with some exceptions its 15%). We wonder why regulators continue to probe the card companies (Visa and Mastercard), who only charge 2-3% per transaction compared to the 30% platform fees that Apple takes. We don’t know if there will be any kind of enforcement action, but the likelihood of fees falling and Apple paying fines is out there. Apple may reduce fees proactively in order to avoid government's meddling here. Regulatory scrutiny against Meta Platforms (META) no doubt pushed that stock down (well before the iOS changes impacted its growth). We also note the deceleration in services revenue last quarter as advertising revenue (Apple TV+) and online shopping slowed. Valuation The biggest risk to Apple stock is its persistently high valuation in the face of slowing growth. Cycle risk comes in two forms too as we see it: 1) economic cycle risk, as consumers are increasingly strapped and likely to reduce spending as inflation takes a toll, and 2) 5G upgrade risk as we have discussed. Today Apple is trading at 22.4x earnings (compared to 9.4x in 2011). High absolute and relative multiples on peak earnings, with slowing growth, seems a bad combination. Below is Apple on a forward P/E basis since 2011. At 22.4x earnings with growth now looking slower than it has in years, the stock appears poised to re-rate lower. On an EV/EBITDA basis, AAPL now fetches a 17.0x forward 2023 multiple compared to its pre-pandemic average of 7.3x. Today the S&P 500 trades at 12.0x 2023, putting Apple at a 40% premium to the S&P today. Below is a graph of Apple’s EV/EBITDA valuation since 2011. Notice how Apple’s valuation ran up in mid-2020. Many may or may not recall, but Apple split its stock 4-1 on August 31, 2020. In the frenzied run up leading up to the split, Apple re-valued from 18.5x EBITDA to almost 25x EBITDA. That 40% gain occurred in only 2 months, largely based on massive call buying from retail investors. The stock has stayed at elevated levels ever since. As we look at forward growth estimates, revenue is expected to grow by 3% in 2023, and 6% in each of 2024 and 2025. We are not going to pretend we can forecast earnings for a company as complex as Apple. But these are unimpressive figures for a company that trades at a growth multiple. Assuming they hit these estimates and beat in 2026 ($8.00 in EPS vs $7.63 current estimates), then we come up with a number of valuation scenarios. We see a range of $100 to $168 on Apple shares. The bubble scenario might be 25x $8 in earnings, or $200 per share. That is roughly the highest analyst price targets, with an average of $173. Other large cap tech names are probably the best comps. Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) trades at 10.2x 2023 EBITDA (40% cheaper than Apple). Microsoft (MSFT) trades at 15x 2023 EBITDA (15% cheaper) and Oracle (ORCL) trades at 11.6x 2023 EBITDA (35% cheaper). Google is expected to grow EPS over 2.5x as fast as Apple from 2023 to 2025. And, Oracle is expected to grow EPS over twice as fast as Apple in that time frame. Note how Apple has outperformed the pack. Conclusion The likelihood of continued valuation de-rating of Apple appears high as 1) higher interest rates and capital migration away from growth and into value names continues, 2) revenue and earnings growth appear to be slowing rapidly and 3) the market appears largely saturated with Apple products, with both the computer/iPad and iPhone upgrade cycles very long in the tooth. On the downside, any hiccups with China would be a tail risk that could potentially devastate AAPL. While these are not likely scenarios, they are still non-zero probabilities, and not even remotely priced into the stock. Regulators may have something to say about Apple's 30% take on their app store too. FWIW, Google, our favorite tech name, has zero exposure to China. Valuation wise AAPL appears to be not quite at bubble levels anymore, but arguably Apple will not grow faster than the S&P 500, and yet trades at a 40% premium to the market. Given the risks to the stock, we have no position in Apple and merely wanted to highlight the downside. If you are long, we recommend lightening here and selling above $150. Aggressive investors may consider a small short position between $150-160 per share, but admittedly there are better shorts among profitless tech companies with bad business models and excessive valuations. Thanks for reading! We offer stock market insights in our Marketplace service entitled Cash Flow Compounders: The Best Stocks in the World. These are high return on equity, high free cash flow stocks with a proven track record in compounding earnings at higher than market rates. There we provide our BEST 2-4 ideas per month. Our picks going back to 2011 have produced just under 30% annual returns, and this year to date our two portfolios are outperforming the market by 10% and 20%. Sign up for a free 2 week trial to get our latest ideas! This article was written by I am a former hedge fund portfolio manager who trades for my personal account. I espouse Graham and Dodd/Buffett style investing, always on the lookout for high-quality equities at attractive valuations. A graduate of Vanderbilt University with an MBA from Northwestern's Kellogg School of Management, I lived in NYC for a decade before relocating to the Charlotte, NC area with my family. I am collaborating with NJ Value Investor on my Marketplace service Cash Flow Compounders. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of MSFT either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body. Comments (253) Also there are efforts at cost savings through employment reduction and layoffs. This is not the only way there is cost reduction as component suppliers well know. Also there will be pre-announcements of shortfalls in net earnings prior to reporting. AAPL stock has recently made several excursions to the $129 level where it appears to have found support. That is -30% a previous 52 Wk High. If one missed out on selling above 150, should one sell now at around $130 or consider buying near 129? or do you think it will drop a further 23% down to around $100 in 1Q23? Go to 14 minutes into this interview with Peter Zeihan to hear specifics on why there is a supply issue (not a demand issue!) www.youtube.com/... en.wikipedia.org/... The stock price will move much higher, while the increased profits and share buybacks will keep P/E where it is. And Apple does not need a new product for that. Just incremental changes and constant improvements to the ecosystem will do the trick. Of course, new products are always welcome. I'm waiting to Buy an Apple 20 Pro. My Apple 6 is going Strong.

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The big warning from the charts: If Apple goes to $100, what does it mean for markets?

Looking at troubling signs in Apple's chart. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Chris Verrone, Karen Finerman, Steve Grasso and Julie Biel.

CNBC

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Upgrading Your Phone for the Holidays Could Save You $1,000 Right Now With This Provider

Black Friday has come and gone, and the post-holiday sales will start in a few weeks. But if you're in the market for a new phone and debating whether you should wait, one provider has a sweet holiday...

Yahoo

Upgrading Your Phone for the Holidays Could Save You $1,000 Right Now With This Provider Black Friday has come and gone, and the post-holiday sales will start in a few weeks. But if you’re in the market for a new phone and debating whether you should wait, one provider has a sweet holiday promotion running. See: 8 Amazing Holiday Gifts To Buy at Costco Find: 3 Easy Tips To Turn Your Credit Woes Into Wows AT&T has increased its promotion for new and upgrading users for both new Apple or Samsung phones to $1000, from $800, CNET reported. In order to be eligible for the discount, customers will need to have an unlimited plan to be eligible for the discount, which will be applied as bill credits over the course of a 36-month installment plan, CNET added. In addition, in order to get the $1000 discount, AT&T needs to value your current device at a minimum of $230 for the purchase of Apple iPhone 14, 14 Pro, 14 Pro max, according to AT&T. Customers can get up to $800 bill credit with the purchase of an Apple iPhone 14, 14 Pro, or 14 Pro max, and the trade-in smartphone has to be valued at a minimum of $130. In order to get a $350 bill credit for the purchase of an Apple iPhone 14, 14 Pro, 14 Pro max, the trade-in phone has to be valued between $35 and $129.99. Take Our Poll: Do You Think Student Loan Debt Should Be Forgiven? And customers can get up to $1,000 bill credit with the purchase of Samsung Galaxy S22, S22+, S22 Ultra 5G, Z Flip4, Z Fold4, Google Pixel 7 or 7 Pro and the trade-in phone needs to be valued at a minimum of $35. More From GOBankingRates Social Security Payment Schedule 2023: What Dates To Watch Out For This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: Upgrading Your Phone for the Holidays Could Save You $1,000 Right Now With This Provider

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Why Apple's Moonshot Is Unlikely In 2023

Today I provide my commentary on Evercore's recently released forecasts for Apple stock's possible moonshot in 2023. See why AAPL stock is a Hold for me.

SeekingAlpha

Why Apple's Moonshot Is Unlikely In 2023 Summary - Today I provide my commentary on Evercore's recently released forecasts for Apple Inc. stock's possible moonshot in 2023. - I politely disagree with the analysts and believe they are greatly overestimating the company's prospects next year. - I suspect other Wall Street analysts are still grossly overestimating Apple's forward earnings as well - more revisions to come next year. - Despite my long-term bullish view on Apple Inc. stock, I remain tactically on the sidelines and do not recommend buying the local dip. - We're currently running a sale at my private investing ideas service, Beyond the Wall Investing, where members get access to portfolios, market alerts, real-time chat, and more. Learn More » Introduction & Thesis You may have already read Evercore ISI's note, in which the investment house suggests that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) could be moving forward with a series of "moonshot projects." These, along with Apple Pay's increasing scale, "temporary" supply issues in China, and more buybacks, will help the company grow EPS by $7 or more next year. In my humble opinion, Evercore's analysts are too optimistic - the company as a whole is pricing in the consequences of a potential recession too softly. It is not enough to focus only on the supply side - Apple, despite its brand power, is likely to feel a weakening of demand for its products, which are not the first necessity under current macro conditions. Apple stock is a Hold currently, and I recommend fishing better entries for averaging down somewhere in the middle of the next year, not now. Why do I think so? This is my 5th article on Apple stock, and it's again Hold-rated. I try to assess what is happening in the market and what various analysts are saying as realistically as possible to see the degree of reasonableness of the consensus forecasts. That note from Evercore plunged me into bewilderment. Analyst Amit Daryanani wrote that Apple could add $7 earnings per share next year: - 1) boosting its "moonshot projects" (by which it may primarily mean the mixed reality headset); - 2) normalization of supply chains from China and in general thanks to the grand reopening steps; - 3) additional share buybacks, new products, and iPhone contributions; - 4) the company's advertising business, which [he believes] is likely to grow in importance; - 5) Apple Pay continues to gain scale. In the headline of my article, you can see the word "moonshot" - this is an allusion to how the analyst describes the project MR [mixed reality], about which rumors are circulating but nothing is really known yet: As the months have rolled on, Apple’s headset has never seemed to move closer over the horizon. That’s probably to be expected with a product as ambitious as a mixed-reality headset, but it means we shouldn’t expect it any time soon. Source: DigitalTrends.com [December 06, 2022], emphasis added by the author. Even if we assume that Apple will launch its MR project next year, how relevant will it be and how much additional OPEX/CAPEX will it need to move forward? In times of rising capital costs, additional spending with no obvious benefit becomes an unforgivable waste that shareholders will be the first to pay for. The second point Evercore brings to our attention is the discovery of China as a major catalyst. However, as the recent performance of China-listed stocks in Hong Kong shows, investors have likely used the recent news about China reopening as an opportunity to sell the rip. Morgan Stanley strategists - Min Dai and Gek Teng Khoo - recommended investors hold back on reopening trades on Tuesday, given the sharp rise in infections. Lu Ting, Nomura's chief China economist, wrote in a note that the road to a full reopening could still be painful and bumpy and that the rise in covid infections will offset some of the positive impacts of easing in the near term. Even if Apple's Foxconn returns to near full capacity, I expect there could be more worker strikes or another factory closure due to various "fever outbreaks" - at least this risk is not off the table yet as we see from the above data. Moreover, Foxconn itself warned a month ago that Its consumer electronics sales in Q4 will be lower than a year ago, while the analyst consensus puts Q3 net income at T$31.73 billion - down 14.2% from Q2. Surprisingly, analysts who estimate Apple's performance several quarters in advance still expect a positive picture for the company - in their opinion, earnings per share should decline by only 4.96% in Q1 2023 and by another 1.96% in Q2 2023, and already in calendar mid-2023, earnings per share will start to grow again and reach a double-digit growth rate in Q1 2024 (December 2023): Apple's EPS estimate still looks "too colorful" in my opinion, especially considering that the company generated 18% of its total revenue in Greater China in FY2022, while this region grew 9% year-over-year - above the average of the rest of the segments. And according to the latest Bloomberg data [link above], we see a cooling of general retail demand in China - retail sales contracted for the second time this year (-5.9% YoY) amid weakening industrial output: Another point Evercore makes is about Apple's advertising business, the growth of which should turn the tide partly in the company's favor. I can agree on the importance of this segment. However, its development will also require quite high CAPEX - the analysts from Citi agree with me on this point: In general, all the positivism that now surrounds Apple and many other tech mega-cap stocks is a consequence of the argument around improving the supply side, because so far, the demand side has been in a pretty strong position. I think the price elasticity of demand for Apple's products - despite all the brand power - is seriously threatened now and especially next year. In Europe, on which 24.1% of Apple's total revenue depends [as of FY2022], gas and electricity bills have risen by double, so amid China (18% of AAPL's revenue) where the situation looks no better in its own way, I expect a demand disruption, which to date is difficult to track using just lead times. Precisely because of the growing risk of demand disruption, I am more inclined to Morgan Stanley's bear case scenario set out in the bank's recent report [December 7, 2022]: Note that a price of $5.23 per share (-14.4% YoY) is not "unattainably low" for Apple given current macro conditions. In any case, we have already seen EPS decline by 10.06% and 9.91% (YoY) in 2013 and 2017, respectively, and back then the situation was not nearly as bleak as it is today. Bottom Line In this article, I have tried to take a critical look at the thesis of Evercore analysts and many other bulls who believe that if Apple performed below last year's expectations this year, everything will definitely be different next year. My impression is that this is not the case. I also do not expect the company's buybacks to help generate significant outperformance because this factor - when considered in isolation - does not usually lead to a significant result in terms of generating alpha over the long term: At the same time, I really like Apple over the long term - the stock grew its free cash flow ("FCF") per share at an annual CAGR of about 26%, and revenue grew 24% over the same period. Operating margin improved twofold, as did ROIC. Book value per share increased from 0.6x to 3.12x. Basically, Apple is a quality multi-bagger that nevertheless experiences difficult years from time to time - and that's perfectly normal. 2023 will be such a difficult year in my opinion. As the consensus Apple Inc. estimates and separate research papers by various banks and investment boutiques show, the "difficult 2023" with all its attributes (revenue decline or multiple declines - sometimes both) is not yet priced in. Yes, Apple's EPS numbers have been revised down 36 out of 38 times in the last 3 months, but the Street still expects positive growth for the full 2023 calendar year. Once the challenges I described above start to impact the company's operations, we will see a continuation of negative earnings revisions - this cannot but affect AAPL stock. As in my previous articles where I assumed good levels to buy AAPL 15-20% lower, I think investors should be patient and wait until the stock reaches the $105-110 level. Until that happens, Apple is a Hold for me. Thanks for reading! Struggle to navigate the stock market environment? Beyond the Wall Investing is about active portfolio positioning and finding investment ideas that are hidden from a broad market of investors. We don't bury our heads in the sand when the market is down - we try to anticipate this in advance and protect ourselves from unnecessary risks accordingly. Keep your finger on the pulse and have access to the latest and highest-quality analysis of what Wall Street is buying/selling with just one subscription to Beyond the Wall Investing! Now there is a free trial and a special discount of 10% - hurry up! This article was written by The chief investment analyst in a small family office registered in Singapore, responsible for developing investment ideas in equities, setting parameters for investment portfolio allocation, and analyzing potential venture capital investments. A generalist in nature, common sense investing approach. BS in Finance. The thesis description can be found in this article. During the heyday of the IPO market, I developed an AI model [in the R statistical language] that returned an alpha of around 24% over the IPO market's return in 2021. Currently, I focus on medium-term investment ideas based on cycle analysis and fundamental analysis of individual companies and industries. Get a free 7-day trial +25% off for up to 12 months on TrendSpider with the coupon code: DS25 **Disclaimer: Associated with Oakoff Investments, another Seeking Alpha Contributor Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body. Comments (14)

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Apple fined 1 million euros by Paris court over App Store practices

The Paris Commercial Court on Monday fined iPhone maker Apple just over 1 million euros ($1.06 million) for imposing abusive commercial clauses on French app developers for access to the company's App Store, the court ruling showed.

Reuters

Apple fined 1 million euros by Paris court over App Store practices PARIS, Dec 19 (Reuters) - The Paris Commercial Court on Monday fined iPhone maker Apple (AAPL.O) just over 1 million euros ($1.06 million) for imposing abusive commercial clauses on French app developers for access to the company's App Store, the court ruling showed. The ruling, seen by Reuters, said there was no need to order Apple, which has a market value of about $2.1 trillion, to tweak the App Store's clauses because the European Union's incoming Digital Markets Act would require changes in any case. While tiny in size compared to the huge profits generated by Apple, the Paris court's fine is another sign of the legal pressures Apple faces to loosen its grip over the App Store, so far the only gateway for alternative app developers to access customers. An Apple spokesman said the U.S. company would review the ruling and believed "in vibrant and competitive markets where innovation can flourish." "Through the App Store, we’ve helped French developers of all sizes share their passion and creativity with users around the world while creating a secure and trusted place for customers," the spokesman added. Apple faces heightened antitrust scrutiny over its contractual practices following the adoption of new EU legislation that targets so-called digital "gatekeepers" online -- tech firms whose platforms and softwares have become unavoidable for smaller digital companies. The Digital Markets Act (DMA) in particular will force Apple and fellow tech giant Google to provide space for third-party app stores on their respective iOS and Android devices. The DMA came into force on Nov. 1 and there is now a six-month implementation stage before it starts to apply for the most part from May 2, 2023. ($1 = 0.9413 euros) Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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UPDATE 1-Apple fined 1 mln euros by Paris court over App Store practices

The Paris Commercial Court on Monday fined iPhone maker Apple just over 1 million euros ($1.06 million) for imposing abusive commercial clauses on French app developers for access to the company's App Store, the court ruling showed. The ruling, seen by Reuters, said there was no need to order Apple, which has a market value of about $2.1 trillion, to tweak the App Store's clauses because the European Union's incoming Digital Markets Act would require changes in any case. While tiny in size compared to the huge profits generated by Apple, the Paris court's fine is another sign of the legal pressures Apple faces to loosen its grip over the App Store, so far the only gateway for alternative app developers to access customers.

Yahoo

UPDATE 1-Apple fined 1 mln euros by Paris court over App Store practices (Adds details from ruling, context) By Layli Foroudi PARIS, Dec 19 (Reuters) - The Paris Commercial Court on Monday fined iPhone maker Apple just over 1 million euros ($1.06 million) for imposing abusive commercial clauses on French app developers for access to the company's App Store, the court ruling showed. The ruling, seen by Reuters, said there was no need to order Apple, which has a market value of about $2.1 trillion, to tweak the App Store's clauses because the European Union's incoming Digital Markets Act would require changes in any case. While tiny in size compared to the huge profits generated by Apple, the Paris court's fine is another sign of the legal pressures Apple faces to loosen its grip over the App Store, so far the only gateway for alternative app developers to access customers. An Apple spokesman said the U.S. company would review the ruling and believed "in vibrant and competitive markets where innovation can flourish." "Through the App Store, we’ve helped French developers of all sizes share their passion and creativity with users around the world while creating a secure and trusted place for customers," the spokesman added. Apple faces heightened antitrust scrutiny over its contractual practices following the adoption of new EU legislation that targets so-called digital "gatekeepers" online -- tech firms whose platforms and softwares have become unavoidable for smaller digital companies. The Digital Markets Act (DMA) in particular will force Apple and fellow tech giant Google to provide space for third-party app stores on their respective iOS and Android devices. The DMA came into force on Nov. 1 and there is now a six-month implementation stage before it starts to apply for the most part from May 2, 2023. ($1 = 0.9413 euros) (Reporting by Layli Foroudi and Mathieu Rosemain; Editing by Jane Merriman, Richard Lough and Susan Fenton)

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Never Lose Your Things Again — The Startup Pouring Gasoline on the Apple AirTag

The world is becoming an increasingly dangerous place resulting in a number of billion-dollar companies springing up in the personal security industry. Ring LLC was sold to Amazon.com Inc. for over $1 billion, and Tile has raised over $140 million in funding. Life360 Inc. is worth about $1 billion dollars as a public company and recently purchased Jiobit from Tile for tens of millions of dollars. Even major players like Apple Inc. have gotten into the space with its Apple AirTags. But many of th

Yahoo

Never Lose Your Things Again — The Startup Pouring Gasoline on the Apple AirTag The world is becoming an increasingly dangerous place resulting in a number of billion-dollar companies springing up in the personal security industry. Ring LLC was sold to Amazon.com Inc. for over $1 billion, and Tile has raised over $140 million in funding. Life360 Inc. is worth about $1 billion dollars as a public company and recently purchased Jiobit from Tile for tens of millions of dollars. Even major players like Apple Inc. have gotten into the space with its Apple AirTags. But many of these security solutions have a number of issues. Tile and AirTags, for example, only work for about 30 feet and within the range of a phone. This severely limits their applicability and doesn’t allow them to work when you need them most. MaxTracker is a new and innovative startup looking to solve this. MaxTracker has created the next generation of personal trackers, allowing you to keep track of your vehicles or children anywhere on the planet — not just around phones. This is done using GPS and 5G technology rather than Bluetooth as AirTags and Tiles use. Don’t Miss: Gaming Skins Just Became A $50 Billion Industry The startup also recently launched an equity crowdfunding campaign. For a limited time, anyone can invest in this startup. Ring is great because it allows you to speak to someone at your front door, track deliveries, and monitor areas of your house and yard. But you’re not protected past your front door. Tile and AirTags are great for things like wallets, keys and other lost items that are typically in range of your phone. However, these technologies have some critical pitfalls. For example, a stolen car or bike will be much harder to find because these can only be tracked when in Bluetooth range. MaxTracker solves this by providing a universal GPS solution. MaxTracker uses GPS so you can track your car, bike or child's backpack when they’re on their way to school from anywhere, anytime. Because it doesn’t rely on a phone's Bluetooth and has a battery life of up to a year, you don’t have to worry nearly as much about not being able to track your MaxTracker device. Read More: This Startup Investing Platform is Turning the Entire Venture Capital World On It’s Head If you are buying something because you need it in an emergency and it ends up not working, what's the point? MaxTracker aims to be the most reliable solution in the industry for out-of-home systems by creating a security platform designed to keep families safe. Now, as this industry and startup grow, you can invest when it’s still a startup so that if it does well, you could see significantly more upside than the stock market. See more on startup investing from Benzinga Illegal For 79 Years, This Loophole Lets Regular Americans Invest Alongside Silicon Valley Insiders This Startup Turned 1 Million Pounds of Ocean Plastic Into a Highly Profitable Business Don't miss real-time alerts on your stocks - join Benzinga Pro for free! Try the tool that will help you invest smarter, faster, and better. © 2022 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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Apple fined 1 mln euros by Paris Commercial Court over app store practices

The Paris Commercial Court on Monday fined iPhone maker Apple just over 1 million euros ($1.06 million) for imposing abusive commercial clauses on French app developers for access to the U.S. company's App Store, a court ruling seen by Reuters said. ($1 = 0.9413 euros) (...

Reuters

Apple fined 1 million euros by Paris court over App Store practices PARIS, Dec 19 (Reuters) - The Paris Commercial Court on Monday fined iPhone maker Apple (AAPL.O) just over 1 million euros ($1.06 million) for imposing abusive commercial clauses on French app developers for access to the company's App Store, the court ruling showed. The ruling, seen by Reuters, said there was no need to order Apple, which has a market value of about $2.1 trillion, to tweak the App Store's clauses because the European Union's incoming Digital Markets Act would require changes in any case. While tiny in size compared to the huge profits generated by Apple, the Paris court's fine is another sign of the legal pressures Apple faces to loosen its grip over the App Store, so far the only gateway for alternative app developers to access customers. An Apple spokesman said the U.S. company would review the ruling and believed "in vibrant and competitive markets where innovation can flourish." "Through the App Store, we’ve helped French developers of all sizes share their passion and creativity with users around the world while creating a secure and trusted place for customers," the spokesman added. Apple faces heightened antitrust scrutiny over its contractual practices following the adoption of new EU legislation that targets so-called digital "gatekeepers" online -- tech firms whose platforms and softwares have become unavoidable for smaller digital companies. The Digital Markets Act (DMA) in particular will force Apple and fellow tech giant Google to provide space for third-party app stores on their respective iOS and Android devices. The DMA came into force on Nov. 1 and there is now a six-month implementation stage before it starts to apply for the most part from May 2, 2023. ($1 = 0.9413 euros) Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

AAPL

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Apple Inc. stock falls Monday, underperforms market

Shares of Apple Inc. slipped 1.59% to $132.37 Monday, on what proved to be an all-around dismal trading session for the stock market, with the NASDAQ...

MarketWatch

Shares of Apple Inc. AAPL, -0.28% slipped 1.59% to $132.37 Monday, on what proved to be an all-around dismal trading session for the stock market, with the NASDAQ Composite Index COMP, +0.55% falling 1.49% to 10,546.03 and Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.93% falling 0.49% to 32,757.54. This was the stock's fourth consecutive day of losses. Apple Inc. closed $50.57 below its 52-week high ($182.94), which the company achieved on January 4th. Despite its losses, the stock outperformed some of its competitors Monday, as Microsoft Corp. MSFT, +0.19% fell 1.73% to $240.45, Alphabet Inc. Cl C GOOG, +0.72% fell 1.88% to $89.15, and Alphabet Inc. Cl A GOOGL, +0.59% fell 2.02% to $88.44.true Trading volume (79.0 M) remained 5.5 million below its 50-day average volume of 84.5 M. Editor's Note: This story was auto-generated by Automated Insights, an automation technology provider, using data from Dow Jones and FactSet. See our market data terms of use.

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Alphabet (GOOGL) Boosts Wear OS Platform With KoruLab Takeover

Alphabet's (GOOGL) Google acquires KoruLab for its low-power user interface to enhance the battery life of the wearable.

Yahoo

Alphabet (GOOGL) Boosts Wear OS Platform With KoruLab Takeover Alphabet’s GOOGL division Google is leaving no stone unturned to strengthen its Wear OS platform on the back of strategic acquisitions. This is evident from the company’s recent acquisition of KoruLab. Google strives to leverage KoruLab’s low-power user interface expertise to enhance the battery life of its wearables. On the back of KoruLab’s interface expertise, Google has added strength to its Wear OS platform. With the help of the recent feature, Alphabet aims to provide an enhanced experience to smartwatch users. This is likely to expand its reach among target consumers which will contribute well to its top-line growth. Alphabet Inc. Price Alphabet Inc. price | Alphabet Inc. Quote Growing Smartwatch Efforts Apart from the recent move, Alphabet added Google Maps to Wear OS watches. Also, its deepening focus on improving battery life and health features of smartwatches holds promise. Further, Alphabet introduced the Google Pixel Watch at its I/O developer conference. Notably, the watch runs on Wear OS software and is powered by Fitbit’s technology. The above-mentioned endeavors are expected to continue helping GOOGL bolster its presence in the booming smartwatch market. The underlined market’s growth is attributed to the rising adoption of smartwatches as it offers numerous customer requirements like time schedules, fitness tracking, music and other features in a single device. Per a Facts and Factors report, the global smartwatch market is expected to hit $97.5 billion by 2028, witnessing a CAGR of 21.5% from 2022 to 2028. Competitive Scenario However, Alphabet faces intense competitive pressure from Apple AAPL and Garmin GRMN who are consistently working toward expanding their footprint in the growing smartwatch market. Apple offers Apple Watch Ultra which provides battery life up to 36 hours. It uses low power mode to offer multi-day adventure battery life of 60 hours. Moreover, Apple Watch offers all-day battery life of 18 hours which provide users with 90 time checks, 90 notifications, 45 minutes of app use and a 60-minute workout with music playback from Apple Watch via Bluetooth. Shares of AAPL have etched down 24.2% in the year-to-date period. Garmin fitness and outdoor smartwatches boast a long week battery life. Garmin Approach watch series battery life ranges from 14 days to 10 weeks. Garmin Enduro smartwatch offers 50 days of life without battery charge while 65 days with Solar. Garmin Forerunner series provides 1-2 weeks of battery life. Shares of GRMN have moved 33.1% south in the year-to-date period. Zacks Rank & Stock to Consider Currently, Alphabet carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). Investors interested in the broader technology sector can consider Asure Software ASUR, carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. Asure Software has gained 12.5% in the year-to-date period. The long-term earnings growth rate for ASUR is currently projected at 23%. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Apple Inc. (AAPL) : Free Stock Analysis Report Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) : Free Stock Analysis Report Asure Software Inc (ASUR) : Free Stock Analysis Report Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) : Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here.

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Google, Amazon, Microsoft's Growing Finance Business Is Getting Them Bank-Like Treatment. Are Beaten Down Tech Stocks A Buy Now?

Tech stocks are trading below their 50-day moving average. Watch these support and resistance levels on your tech watchlist.

Yahoo

Apple Hubs In India, Vietnam Next Year; China Exodus By 2025. Are Beaten Down Tech Stocks A Buy Now? Tech stocks are trading below their 50-day moving average. Watch these support and resistance levels on your tech watchlist. Tech stocks are trading below their 50-day moving average. Watch these support and resistance levels on your tech watchlist.

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Berkshire Performs So-So During Recessions Historically

Berkshire Hathaway tends to fall in a similar fashion to the S&P 500 in economic recessions. Click here to read my analysis of Berkshire Hathaway stock.

SeekingAlpha

Berkshire Performs So-So During Recessions Historically Summary - Berkshire Hathaway tends to fall in a similar fashion to the S&P 500 in economic recessions. - Smart diversification and large cash holdings in late 2022 should provide some support in a prolonged bear market and recessionary environment. - I would wait patiently for lower prices, if you are planning to buy shares. Another down year for U.S. stocks may be in cards. I rate the stock a Hold. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A) (NYSE:BRK.B) has performed with distinction during the 2022 bear market. Diversification of business units and equity investments outside of the imploding Big Tech sector are the primary reasons. A massive $108 billion in cash and short-term investments ($57 billion in net working capital) at the end of September didn’t hurt either, assets uncorrelated to price swings on Wall Street. Making up 80%+ of the conglomerate’s rough $300 billion equity investment portfolio, Apple (AAPL), Bank of America (BAC), Coca-Cola (KO), Chevron (CVX), American Express (AXP), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Moody’s (MCO) have performed far better as a group than the S&P 500. These eight long-term stock investments represent about 40% of the current equity capitalization of Berkshire and a little less than 30% of total reportable assets. Insurance policy writing from the wholly-owned GEICO auto coverage division and industry-leading reinsurance operation, plus the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railway (among other businesses) do provide financial stability and some beneficial diversification in operations during bear markets. In aggregate, Berkshire’s quality assets alongside something of a rebirth in investor interest in the firm have delivered a flat return for owners over the last 12 months. The good news is this performance has handily bested the S&P 500 total return loss of -16% since the middle of December 2021. However, recessions can be a different animal to handle, especially if we get a deep economic contraction in 2023. December’s record 40-year inversion spread in the Treasury debt market yield curve (3-month vs. 30-year rates) is a screaming red flag our economy is poised to head lower next year. So, let’s review past recession performance by the Berkshire conglomerate to understand what may lie ahead for shareholders. Recession Performance Since 1981 Below is a graph of Berkshire’s Class A price change since 1981, on a log scale. Compounded total returns (the company does not pay a dividend) have been +18.5% a year, with an astounding price rise from $400 to $454,620 per share! However, most of the gains were frontloaded on the chart with peak growth rates achieved before 1999. The standout idea is recessions have not been kind to the company (shaded in grey), and statistically represent the worst times to own Berkshire. If you could avoid owning shares during recessions, your returns would be even better for compounding money. Interestingly, an inverted yield curve in Treasury bonds (like today) was present before every past recession over this research span. I discussed a month ago here the rotten performance for the Dow Jones Industrial Average after major Treasury yield-curve inversions. 2020 COVID Pandemic One example of a dud “relative” period to own Berkshire vs. a plain-vanilla S&P 500 position occurred between September 2019 and September 2020, the economic shutdown pandemic year. While returns largely mirrored the main U.S. equity index into April 2020 (with a -30% price drop in early 2020), excessive levels of cash (going into a sharp market rebound) and a number of cyclical businesses dragged down results as the economy tried to recover. 2008 to 2009 Great Recession Berkshire Hathaway fell hard by nearly -50% during the official 2008 to early 2009 recession span, and struggled to rebound afterward. 2007 was not the worst year for the company’s share quote, so it did perform better than the S&P 500 over the entire “bear” equity market span between the middle of 2007 into March 2009. If you narrow down your focus to negative real GDP quarters, however, this company was far from an outperformance selection. 2001 to 2002 Tech Bust One period that did show both bear market and recession outperformance was the original Technology Bust of 2000 -02. On the graph below, you can review Berkshire’s steady returns (minor losses) outlined at the tail end of the stock market bust and recession vs. the S&P 500. 1990-91 Persian Gulf War Berkshire was not a particularly great place to park your money in 1990. An inverted yield curve in late 1989 and early 1990 warned of trouble ahead for the market, then Saddam Hussein (Iraq) invaded Kuwait, sending economic fear (spiking crude oil prices) and war tensions to Wall Street. Between January and October 1990, Berkshire declined -35%, dramatically underperforming the S&P 500 index. 1982 Volcker Interest Rate Spike The 1982 recession came at the end of the wicked 1970s inflation super-cycle. Fed Chairman Paul Volcker finally raised interest rates well ABOVE cost-of-living adjustments for the economy (Fed Funds would have to double from 4% today to 8%). This effort helped to instill confidence that interest rates could only head in one direction – lower, which propped up big bond holders like insurance companies. At the time, GEICO was Berkshire’s largest investment (then publicly traded) and oversized gainer in 1982. Investments in the Washington Post (now owned by Jeff Bezos) and others had a strong year also, pushing Berkshire’s price gain well above the S&P 500. Final Thoughts I know many of Berkshire Hathaway‘s cultish followers and Mr. Buffett himself are flustered with this reality, but the company’s total return for investors has only been able to achieve a mild “beat” vs. the S&P 500 since the 2002 recession ended. Believe it or not, gold bullion buried in your backyard has delivered the same advance in dollar value as owning Berkshire over the last 20 years (widely besting the S&P 500)! Since the Dotcom technology boom turned to bust in the year 2000, honest economic growth has almost completely disappeared for two decades in America. Stock market (and bond market) pricing have been largely a function of Federal Reserve money printing trends in my view, especially when paired with record deficit-required Treasury borrowing by Uncle Sam, directly financed with QE bond buying since late 2008. In other words, little inflation-adjusted economic growth has been part of our world for some time. Stocks have risen with money printing devaluations (inflation) in the economy, highlighted by the strong gold rise in debased U.S. dollars. Anyway, given a recession is next, I don’t have an issue with small retail investors owning Berkshire Hathaway. It is a defensive pick for sure, with manageable debts, enormous liquid investments, and greater diversification than the typical Wall Street pick. I suspect Berkshire may fall less in percentage terms during 2023 than the S&P 500, just like 2022’s experience, assuming the selloff continues. If you are contemplating purchasing shares around $300, I would wait for lower prices. I am modeling a Berkshire -10% to -15% price decline into March as a probable outcome (this calendar month has produced major stock market bottoms numerous times in the past). All told, a U.S. recession will likely bring increasingly negative effects to a list of cyclical business operations and Berkshire’s extensive stock holdings. There are scenarios where a sizable share price drawdown could mimic previous recession spans throughout history. In my view, Wall Street in general has not seriously discounted a drop in corporate earnings witnessed during recessions. If a severe contraction in GDP appears soon, sharply declining business earnings and worker incomes in the economy could snowball into another -20% or -30% shrinkage in stock quotes during 2023, including Berkshire. More bad news, total U.S. market capitalization to nominal GDP stats still argue a major haircut on Wall Street remains a possibility. One of Warren’s favorite valuation tools over the decades remains near record highs (excluding the crazy Fed money printing 2020-22 experience) drawn below. The U.S. stock market remains overvalued by 30% vs. the 50-year median average of this data point and would have to trade -70% lower to reach the 1982 low. And, while investor pessimism is high (typically indicative of an approaching equity bottom), the level of “fear” is not. My baseline forecast is a final blowout in investor sentiment fits together nicely with the advent of a significant rise in unemployment during the first half of 2023 (usually the last lagging indicator of recession to appear). I would not be surprised by a negative return from Berkshire for all of 2023. If this is our reality, holders of cash-like investments will actually generate stronger gains (on rising short-term yields) over both 2022 and 2023 than shareholders of most every U.S. equity, including Buffett’s operation. Consequently, the highest rating I can give Berkshire Hathaway is a Hold/Neutral setting. Buying on weakness for long-term portfolios is my suggestion. For sure, I would keep investment return expectations lower than a decade or two ago. The company is so massive in size and diversified in businesses owned, macroeconomic returns similar to the S&P 500 are likely. Mr. Buffett has expressed as much for years. Thanks for reading. Please consider this article a first step in your due diligence process. Consulting with a registered and experienced investment advisor is recommended before making any trade. This article was written by Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. This writing is for educational and informational purposes only. All opinions expressed herein are not investment recommendations, and are not meant to be relied upon in investment decisions. The author is not acting in an investment advisor capacity and is not a registered investment advisor. The author recommends investors consult a qualified investment advisor before making any trade. Any projections, market outlooks or estimates herein are forward looking statements and are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed to be indicative of actual events that will occur. This article is not an investment research report, but an opinion written at a point in time. The author's opinions expressed herein address only a small cross-section of data related to an investment in securities mentioned. Any analysis presented is based on incomplete information, and is limited in scope and accuracy. The information and data in this article are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. The author expressly disclaims all liability for errors and omissions in the service and for the use or interpretation by others of information contained herein. Any and all opinions, estimates, and conclusions are based on the author's best judgment at the time of publication, and are subject to change without notice. The author undertakes no obligation to correct, update or revise the information in this document or to otherwise provide any additional materials. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body. Comments (87) Coke Green Energy "Dirty" Energy Utilities Railroad Pipelines InsuranceI'm missing a bunch. But you have it is BRK. If you're super risk averse, throw in a $100B in cash.

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See it from the air: Williamson County raking in some of America's biggest projects

During ABJ's 25th annual Williamson County Growth Summit, attendees piggy-backed on a drone for an extensive aerial tour of some massive projects where people will live, work and play in the future. Drone video of the rising Samsung factory, the just-finished Apple campus, a factory that will compete with Tesla — plus insight into where Elon Musk sends many of those cars when they exit the gigafactory. Those and many other skyline changers for the north side of Austin are on display in this spec

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See it from the air: Williamson County raking in some of America's biggest projects During ABJ's 25th annual Williamson County Growth Summit, attendees piggy-backed on a drone for an extensive aerial tour of some massive projects where people will live, work and play in the future. Drone video of the rising Samsung factory, the just-finished Apple campus, a factory that will compete with Tesla — plus insight into where Elon Musk sends many of those cars when they exit the gigafactory. Those and many other skyline changers for the north side of Austin are on display in this spec

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Investors Heavily Search Apple Inc. (AAPL): Here is What You Need to Know

Recently, Zacks.com users have been paying close attention to Apple (AAPL). This makes it worthwhile to examine what the stock has in store.

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Investors Heavily Search Apple Inc. (AAPL): Here is What You Need to Know Apple (AAPL) has recently been on Zacks.com's list of the most searched stocks. Therefore, you might want to consider some of the key factors that could influence the stock's performance in the near future. Over the past month, shares of this maker of iPhones, iPads and other products have returned -11.1%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -2.7% change. During this period, the Zacks Computer - Mini computers industry, which Apple falls in, has lost 9.6%. The key question now is: What could be the stock's future direction? While media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making. Revisions to Earnings Estimates Here at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock. We essentially look at how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to reflect the impact of the latest business trends. And if earnings estimates go up for a company, the fair value for its stock goes up. A higher fair value than the current market price drives investors' interest in buying the stock, leading to its price moving higher. This is why empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements. Apple is expected to post earnings of $1.94 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -7.6%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -3.4%. The consensus earnings estimate of $6.19 for the current fiscal year indicates a year-over-year change of +1.3%. This estimate has changed -1.1% over the last 30 days. For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $6.70 indicates a change of +8.3% from what Apple is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed -0.9%. Having a strong externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, offers a more conclusive picture of a stock's price direction in the near term, since it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. Due to the size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, Apple is rated Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). The chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate: 12 Month EPS Projected Revenue Growth Even though a company's earnings growth is arguably the best indicator of its financial health, nothing much happens if it cannot raise its revenues. It's almost impossible for a company to grow its earnings without growing its revenue for long periods. Therefore, knowing a company's potential revenue growth is crucial. For Apple, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $121.22 billion indicates a year-over-year change of -2.2%. For the current and next fiscal years, $404.04 billion and $427.22 billion estimates indicate +2.5% and +5.7% changes, respectively. Last Reported Results and Surprise History Apple reported revenues of $90.15 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +8.1%. EPS of $1.29 for the same period compares with $1.24 a year ago. Compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $88.47 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of +1.9%. The EPS surprise was +2.38%. The company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates each time over this period. Valuation No investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance. Comparing the current value of a company's valuation multiples, such as its price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), to its own historical values helps ascertain whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, whereas comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of how reasonable its stock price is. As part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued. Apple is graded C on this front, indicating that it is trading at par with its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade. Bottom Line The facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Apple. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Apple Inc. (AAPL) : Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here.

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Should You Buy Spotify Stock Before the End of 2022?

The audio streamer is not yet profitable, but it has put up impressive growth numbers over the past few years.

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Should You Buy Spotify Stock Before the End of 2022? The audio streamer is not yet profitable, but it has put up impressive growth numbers over the past few years. The audio streamer is not yet profitable, but it has put up impressive growth numbers over the past few years.

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Bad News Will Be Bad News

I think the market will focus on economic data in 2023 rather than the Federal Reserve monetary policy. Click here to read my detailed macroeconomic analysis.

SeekingAlpha

Bad News Will Be Bad News Summary - The market will likely focus on economic data in 2023 rather than the Federal Reserve monetary policy. - Unemployment numbers and the housing market are likely to be the new hot topics. - The firefighters of the Federal Reserve probably won’t extinguish the fire before the markets sound the alarm. - The process of 'Sounding the alarm' is bearish for equities but bullish for bonds. The dominant force of 2022 was the Federal Reserve Markets have been driven by Inflation and the corresponding monetary policy changes by the Federal Reserve for the whole year of 2022. Changes to the potential Federal Reserve reaction function were discussed in great detail by the media, the live views of the FOMC meetings with Chairman Jerome Powell reached substantially more people than usual, and Twitter accounts of Macro Experts and/or Doomers had a surge in followership. That’s for good reasons: Jerome Powell, formerly known as ‘Jay‘ (and in 2020/21 simply: ‘J’) managed to raise the effective Fed Funds from zero in January and started reducing the Federal Reserve balance sheet with Quantitative Tightening. Other Central Banks were less tight, and the Dollar (DXY) shot up in relative value, especially against the Euro and the Yen. Just recently, the Federal Reserve raised the target rate of the Fed Funds by another 50 Basis Points to 4.375%. Future Rate Hikes depend heavily on economic data, most importantly the unemployment numbers. In my belief, it’s highly likely that the Federal Reserve will become less relevant in 2023 because markets heavily factor in rate-of-change instead of nominal levels. There may be another rate hike in February, but in general the Federal Reserve decisions will get less volatile because rates are already in highly restrictive territory. However, less volatility of the Federal Reserve decision-making isn’t necessarily bullish for stocks because real rates are in positive territory across the curve. This article aims at opening up a discussion about the probable driving forces of financial markets in 2023. After all, the market is forward-looking. My thinking of recent economic trends Before that, an important disclaimer and overview of my macroeconomic views of the last few years, as they materially influence how I think about the markets going into 2023. To start off, I believe inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, while the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve works with long and variable lags. I think that much of the inflation of late 2021 and 2022 had its origins in the massive monetary and fiscal stimulus following the Covid Crisis in March 2020. The fundamental difference of the monetary stimulus was a) the amount and b) the strong connection with fiscal stimulus, which acted as a transmitter for pushing money into the real economy and not only in assets. All the while, supply-chain issues, and fundamental supply/demand imbalances, especially in the energy sector, contributed to inflationary pressures. The extraordinary easing of monetary and fiscal policy, coupled with global covid restrictions led to the surge in consumer price inflation. Because of the mechanisms of credit provision, it took a little longer than a year for the monetary and fiscal stimulus to be reflected in the CPI numbers. But the lag exists on both ends. With a good year of tightening monetary policy, much less fiscal stimulus, and substantial easing of supply-chain issues, I believe inflation will rapidly return below 3-4% in the next year. In 2022 the market experienced its sugar detox. In the first half of 2023, this will likely continue. Bad news will be bad news again. However, the focus will probably shift from changes in the indirect liquidity provision from the central banks toward non-financial economic data. Throughout 2022, bad news was good news. The market discounted worse-than-expected economic data as tailwinds for stocks because of the Federal Reserve reaction function. The faster the economy would decline toward a recession, the quicker the market expected the Federal Reserve to stop its tightening process, and global liquidity would be expected to improve. For example, the recent bear market rally from October 2022 to now started off with lower expectations of future inflation due to economic headwinds. Bad news was good news. That short-term bear market rally is over, in my opinion. I believe the bear market will likely enter its last phase, the point at which corporate profits decline. Because of all the excess liquidity in the system, companies still earned record profits, even during times of monetary tightness and high inflation, because consumer demand was unaffected by the tightening. Margins rose and helped to offset the monetary tightening. That’s until now. The Personal Savings Rate just reached the previous lows of 2005 because of elevated average costs of living: The Many are pushed into credit card debt, with elevated lending costs: A good proxy for analyzing global liquidity conditions are Cryptocurrencies (BTC-USD, ETH-USD), as they represent assets that appreciate if money devalues (quite the opposite of an inflation hedge, contrary to popular belief). Bitcoin is down ~75% of its peak in late 2021. The peak corresponded perfectly with the change in Federal Reserve monetary policy: I expect profit margins to decline materially in the first half of 2023 because I think consumer demand won’t hold up as it did before. As bad news hits the market, I believe it’s highly probable that the market of the future also discounts it negatively. That’s because the Federal Reserve is unlikely to change its restrictive monetary policy throughout the first half of 2023 unless something material breaks the markets. Examples of breaking markets would be a sudden surge of unemployment or a credit event of a larger scale (doesn’t include bankrupt Crypto Exchanges and/or Lenders). I don’t believe the market will focus solely on the Federal Reserve's reaction function but rather on the economic data. The firefighters of the Federal Reserve won’t extinguish the fire before the markets sound the alarm in my view. In my opinion, it’s best to stay out of the way until then. I believe front-running a pivot is not possible, as the decision of the Federal Reserve depends on ex-post data. A rise in Unemployment could shock the (housing) market Everyone and their mother expects the housing market to come under pressure. It’s no secret that the sector is severely exposed to changes in the risk-free rate: Currently, however, the majority of owners locked in fixed mortgage rates before the risk-free rates started to increase materially. In reality, the bulk of all lending costs will not increase as long as nobody sells their home. The incentives to start selling at lower prices are not there yet, as unemployment is still at a multi-decade low: Just because most market participants expect housing to continue to deteriorate, that doesn’t mean it’s not happening. It’s a similar ex-post situation, as it is with the Federal Reserve reaction function: First, unemployment has to rise significantly for house owners to feel the heat. If owners are pressured to sell their homes, the housing market won’t stay illiquid, and prices eventually have to decline. Although I don’t want to make direct comparisons because I believe the underlying circumstances are materially different now, similarities to the 2008 financial crisis start to appear because of financial stress: The housing sector dictates the US economy, as many jobs are on the line. In the end, no matter which way around it, unemployment numbers and the housing sector go hand in hand: Retail still hasn’t capitulated The rise of risk-free rates already destabilized some of the more speculative retail buying power. Retail traders net sold individual stocks in 2022, but they bought even more ETFs than in 2021 (!), betting on the long-term returns of the past 20 years. Generally, ETF buyers have a more passive approach to investing and only liquidate their investment if they have to. The misery index is a good estimate of pain for the average household. It combines CPI and unemployment numbers: As of now, the misery index is quite elevated because of inflation. ETF inflows are likely to come under pressure if the (already stressed) financial conditions of the average household worsen because of rising unemployment. The savings rate has already come down significantly. I don’t believe much retail ETF buying power will be left if stocks continue to slide and unemployment rises. Apple (AAPL) seems very vulnerable in this kind of environment. The company sells luxury products with little innovation, for middle-class retail consumers that don’t have money to spend and for corporations that are likely to experience an earnings recession and a decline in margins. The company produces mainly in China, where political issues could pressure the supply chain. If they decide to produce domestically, margins will deteriorate further. However, the stock is still trading at $134, while the pre-covid high in 2020 was at $80. I believe much of the resilience of these ‘pristine’ tech names has been due to the resilient ETF inflows and the switch by retail from tech names with low profitability to tech names with high profitability. Watch out for what happens when the margins of crowded ‘tech safe havens’ like Apple start to roll over, though. Bonds as a potential 'safe haven' for 2023 The 2022 bear market was profoundly different from other bear markets in the last 40 years because the negative correlation between stocks and bonds broke down. Usually, when stocks sell off, the market expects the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy and therefore, bonds rise. In 2022, stocks and bonds sold off simultaneously because inflation changed the Federal Reserve reaction function. Now, there wouldn’t be a pivot because of worsening financial conditions. On the contrary, worse financial conditions were the target of the Federal Reserve. During 2022, the long end of the curve (TLT) sold off by ~ 25%, while the S&P500 (SPX) only depreciated 20%. My base case for 2023 is rapid disinflation or even deflation in the second half. If that happens, the negative correlation between stocks and bonds should reemerge – at least for the next year. Especially in times of spiking equity volatility, bonds should be a decent hedge if the current disinflationary trend continues. I don’t view a non-orderly decline of the market as my base case, but the possibility of a left tail risk event is still there if retail comes under pressure because of the above-listed reasons. Even in the case of a melt-up (left tail risk), bonds should outperform because that event would likely originate from a preemptive Federal Reserve pivot, which I view as unlikely as a market crash. Nonetheless, the valuation of bonds vs. stocks seems favorable now. The forward earnings yield for the S&P 500 stands at ~ 5.8%, as analyst consensus for 2023 earnings remains fairly high at ~ $225. If earnings come down to ~ $200 in 2023, that’s an earnings yield of ~ 5.1%. Meanwhile, 10Y US Treasuries yield 3.5%, and the front-end of the curve remains above 4%. Comparing the relative risks of these investment options makes bonds seem like the superior choice, especially during times of great uncertainty and deflation. The bigger picture While I am bullish on bonds for 2023, my big-picture view remains bearish. I believe the long-term bull market in bonds found its peak in late 2021. But obviously, the market is probably not going to crash down to a 10% yield. A transition phase of relatively low-interest rates seems likely until the debt-to-GDP issue is resolved. I believe austerity would be a non-sustainable choice. The easiest solution to the current macroeconomic environment is probably several years of financial repression, with average interest rates low enough (not zero!) to ensure that the average creditor receives a negative real return due to monetary devaluation, which at best doesn’t show up in traditional inflation data. This way, debt-to-GDP can decline over several years without the extreme pain which would be caused by austerity. But you want to do that in a subtle and not in a kind of money-bazooka-shooting kind of way. I believe that was the mistake of the Federal Reserve during 2020/2021. However, inflation is likely to consolidate at a higher-trending baseline due to underlying and fundamental inflationary pressures because of destabilization. Additionally, markets now face 5 long-lasting and important negative-turning macroeconomic factors, which I’ve discussed in a previous article: |1982-2021:||Going Forward:| |Average Inflation Rates||Falling|| | Rising |Globalization||Spreading||Stagnating| |Demographics||Young||Old| |Relative Energy Costs||Low||High| |Debt Levels||Low|| | High Key Takeaways I believe that the market will focus on the (presumably bad) economic data in 2023 instead of focusing on the Federal Reserve monetary policy. The Central Banks are probably going to hold their tight monetary policy stance for a while until something breaks. ‘Something breaking’ will likely be bearish for equities but not for bonds because of the disinflationary/deflationary force the economic downturn provides. In the very long term, bonds are still not a good place to be, however. After the price shock of 2022, there is likely to be an earnings shock in 2023. The average consumer already got squeezed in 2022 by high transitory inflation, and he might get squeezed again in 2023 by rising unemployment. In 2022, the speculative tech assets got hit hard by interest rate hikes, but in 2023 the profitable tech names are likely to get hit by ETF outflows and broad-based margin compression. This article was written by Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of TLT, BTC-USD either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Short: AAPL, Long: TLT, BTC-USD Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body. Comments (53) Sell and get a CD that pays 4% While You Can. the inflation target from 2% to 3%. It is ONLY a target number. They are not likely to reduce to less than 3% anyway.Just do it. I cannot imagine that Powell and all those Fed governors can not figure this out.I posed this question to an SA author today. He said this would be good for stocks.

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Apple tries to be both desirable and predictable

Companies from General Electric to Goldman Sachs know one key to a higher stock-market valuation is producing recurring, stable, fee-like revenue. The same goes for Apple. The $2.4 trillion iPhone maker’s shift from devices to less tangible services, which made up 18% of...

Reuters

Apple tries to be both desirable and predictable NEW YORK, Feb 2 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Companies from General Electric (GE.N) to Goldman Sachs (GS.N) know one key to a higher stock-market valuation is producing recurring, stable, fee-like revenue. The same goes for Apple (AAPL.O). The $2.4 trillion iPhone maker’s shift from devices to less tangible services, which made up 18% of its revenue in the latest quarter, has pushed up its valuation. But not all of its offerings are equally valuable. As Apple has shifted toward more services, its desirability has risen. In 2018, the company’s enterprise value was equivalent to 3 times estimated revenue for the year ahead, according to Refinitiv. Today, at $2.5 trillion including net debt, Chief Executive Tim Cook presides over a firm valued at 6 times sales. One way to make sense of that is to break Apple’s valuation into parts. Analysts assume Apple will sell about $300 billion in iPhones and other objects this year. While the devices have changed, the business hasn’t much, so assume that chunk of business is worth around 5 times sales – still handsomely above Apple’s historical average – or around $1.5 trillion. Deduct that from Apple’s enterprise value, and investors are pricing the services business at $1 trillion, around 10 times forecast revenue. That’s more than Microsoft (MSFT.O), which trades at 8 times and whose revenue growth is similar and remarkably consistent. Whether it’s justified, though, depends on what services Apple is peddling, and how steady and subscription-like they are. Gaming and advertising, for example, may become blockbuster businesses, but are more impacted by economic weakness than music subscriptions or cloud backup. Apple doesn’t break out how much revenue comes from what source, but it matters. Cyclical services are typically valued less richly, even if they are growing quickly. Alphabet (GOOGL.O), the ad-dependent parent of Google, and gaming company Electronic Arts (EA.O) are both valued at 4 times estimated sales. If 20% of Apple’s services are cyclical, for example, and investors put the same multiple of sales as those peers, the company's fair share price drops 5%. That may sound like splitting hairs. But it isn’t, because services are an ever-greater part of Apple’s business: nearly a fifth of revenue today compared with less than 10% in 2015. Apple might be reluctant to disclose more, since regulators like European antitrust cop Margrethe Vestager are out to inject competition into digital markets. But if there’s one thing investors prize along with predictability, it’s transparency. Follow @rob_cyran on Twitter CONTEXT NEWS Apple said on Feb.2 that revenue for the quarter ending Dec. 31 was $117 billion, a decrease of 5% from the same period the year before. The technology company earned $30 billion, compared to $34.6 billion a year ago. The iPhone maker said it faced significant supply constraints in the quarter. Covid-19 lockdowns in China hampered production of iPhones. Services revenue rose 6% to $20.8 billion. (The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.) Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Apple, Inc. (AAPL) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:NASDAQ:AAPL) Q1 2023 Earnings Conference Call February 2, 2023 5:00 PM ETCompany ParticipantsTejas Gala - IR ContactTimothy Cook - CEO & DirectorLuca Maestri - CFO...

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Apple, Inc. (AAPL) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) Q1 2023 Earnings Conference Call February 2, 2023 5:00 PM ET Company Participants Tejas Gala - IR Contact Timothy Cook - CEO & Director Luca Maestri - CFO & SVP Conference Call Participants David Vogt - UBS Shannon Cross - Crédit Suisse Erik Woodring - Morgan Stanley Aaron Rakers - Wells Fargo Securities Krish Sankar - Cowen and Company Wamsi Mohan - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Amit Daryanani - Evercore ISI Harsh Kumar - Piper Sandler & Co. James Suva - Citigroup Operator Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Apple Q1 Fiscal Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. And now at this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Tejas Gala, Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Finance. Please go ahead. Tejas Gala Thank you. Speaking first today is Apple's CEO, Tim Cook; and he'll be followed by CFO, Luca Maestri. After that, we'll open the call to questions from analysts. Before turning the call over to Tim, I would like to remind everyone that the December quarter spanned 14 weeks, while the March quarter, as usual, has 13 weeks. Please note that some of the information you'll hear during our discussion today will consist of forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, those regarding revenue, gross margin, operating expenses, other income and expense, taxes, capital allocation and future business outlook, including the potential impact of COVID-19 on the company's business and results of operations. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results or trends to differ materially from our forecast. For more information, please refer to the risk factors discussed in Apple's most recently filed annual report on Form 10-K and the Form 8-K filed with the SEC today, along with the associated press release. Apple assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements or information which speak as of their respective dates. I'd now like to turn the call over to Tim for introductory remarks. Timothy Cook Thank you, Tejas. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Today, we're reporting revenue of $117.2 billion for the December quarter. We set all-time revenue records in a number of markets, including Canada, Indonesia, Mexico, Spain, Turkey and Vietnam, along with quarterly records in Brazil and India. As a result of a challenging environment, our revenue was down 5% year-over-year. But I'm proud of the way we have navigated circumstances, seen and unforeseen, over the past several years, and I remain incredibly confident in our team and our mission and in the work we do every day. Let me discuss the 3 factors that impacted our revenue performance during the quarter. The first was foreign exchange headwinds, which had a nearly 800 basis point impact. On a constant currency basis, we grew year-over-year and would have grown in the vast majority of the markets we track. The second factor, which we described in a November 6 update was COVID-19-related challenges, which significantly impacted the supply of iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max and lasted through most of December. Because of these constraints, we had significantly less iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max supply than we planned, causing ship times to extend far beyond what we had anticipated. As we always have every step of the way throughout the pandemic, we continued to prioritize people and worked with our suppliers to ensure the health and safety of every worker. Production is now back where we want it to be. The third factor was a challenging macroeconomic environment as the world continues to face unprecedented circumstances, from inflation to war in Eastern Europe, to the enduring impacts of the pandemic. And we know that Apple is not immune to it. But whatever conditions we face, our approach is always the same. We are thoughtful and deliberate. We manage for the long term. We adapt quickly to circumstances outside our control while delivering with excellence in the things we can. We invest in innovation, in people and in the positive difference we can make in the world. And we do it all to provide our customers with technology that will enrich their lives and help unlock their full creative potential. It's a wonderful thing to be a part of, and it's so rewarding for all of us at Apple when we hear how much our customers are loving what we create. Let me talk now about what we saw across our product categories. Starting with iPhone. Revenue came in at $65.8 billion for the quarter, down 8% year-over-year. However, on a constant currency basis, iPhone revenue was roughly flat. Our customers continue to rave about the astounding camera capabilities and unprecedented battery life and the groundbreaking suite of health and safety features. The iPhone 14 lineup pushes the limits of what users can do with a smartphone. During the quarter, Mac revenue came in at $7.7 billion, which was in line with what we had expected. We had a difficult compare because this time last year, we had the extremely successful launch of the redesigned M1 MacBook Pros. We also faced a challenging macroeconomic environment and foreign exchange headwinds. We remain confident in and focused on the long-term opportunity for Mac. Just last month, we introduced new MacBook Pro models powered by our latest developments in Apple silicon, M2 Pro and M2 Max. These chips enable unprecedented performance and do so with less energy, which is not only good for the environment but gives the newest MacBook Pro the longest battery life ever in a Mac. We also introduced the M2-powered Mac mini, which will supercharge productivity for users of all kinds and leave them stunned by just how powerful a Mac mini can be. During the quarter, iPad revenue grew 30% to a total of $9.4 billion. The very strong growth was due in part to a favorable compare to the December quarter a year ago when we experienced significant supply constraints. Customers continue to praise our new lineup for its versatility, whether it's the new iPad Pro now powered by the M2 or the newly designed iPad 10th Generation with its stunning liquid retina display and beautiful colors. Revenue for Wearables, Home and Accessories was $13.5 billion, which was down 8% year-over-year driven by foreign exchange headwinds and a challenging macroeconomic environment. We remain excited about the long-term opportunity in the category. As an example, a few weeks ago, we announced the next-generation HomePod, which is an indispensable addition to the smart home. This powerful smart speaker relies on advanced computational audio to produce an incredible listening experience. We're also helping users make their homes safer with sound recognition. This feature, arriving later this spring, allows HomePod to send a notification directly to a user's iPhone if a smoke or carbon monoxide alarm sound is identified. We continue to hear wide praise for Apple Watch Series 8 and Apple Watch Ultra, which has set a new standard for what's possible with a wearable. From a whole host of health and safety features to incredible new capabilities for extreme athletes, there is something for everyone in these amazing products. Customers are excited about some phenomenal new features we've made available across many of our products as well. One of the highlights is emergency SOS via satellite, which launched for iPhone 14 customers in the U.S. and Canada in November and for customers in France, Germany, Ireland and the U.K. in December. This is a feature we hope our users will never need, but it is incredibly heartening to get e-mails from people describing the life-saving impact our new safety features have had on them. We're always looking for new ways to empower people to create and collaborate. In December, we released Freeform, a brand-new app that lets users take their ideas wherever they want, anywhere they are, all while collaborating in real time. Freeform has already received praise from reviewers for its flexibility and simplicity as it works seamlessly across iPhone, iPad and Mac. Today, we are very excited to announce that we've achieved a truly incredible milestone. Thanks to our deep commitment to innovation, incredible customer loyalty and satisfaction and a large number of switchers, we now have more than 2 billion active devices as part of our growing installed base, double what it was just 7 years ago. This is an incredible testament to our products and services and the strength of our ecosystem. We set an all-time revenue record of $20.8 billion in services, which was better than what we had expected. We achieved double-digit revenue growth from App Store subscriptions and set all-time revenue records across a number of categories, including cloud and payment services. All told, Apple now has more than 935 million paid subscriptions. Apple has also just begun a historic 10-year partnership with Major League Soccer. Just yesterday, we launched MLS Season Pass, which will give fans in more than 100 countries access to every live MLS regular season game as well as the playoffs and MLS Cup, all with no blackouts. And while we're providing more content to sports fans than ever before, Apple TV+ continues to showcase powerful characters and moving storytelling. We were thrilled to celebrate the holidays alongside our Apple TV+ subscribers with the hit movie Spirited. And we're delighted to see how much people are enjoying new and returning series like Shrinking, Slow Horses and Truth Be Told. And we have some great upcoming movies in Sharper and Tetris, along with Emmy Award winner Ted Lasso returning this spring. During the quarter, we made some great updates to Fitness+ as well, expanding our catalog of more than 3,500 workouts and meditations to include a new kickboxing category and a new sleep theme for meditations. Our latest artist spotlight series features the music of the incomparable Beyonce, and we're excited to take a stroll with guests appearing on our fifth season of Time to Walk. And we continue to build on our decades-long commitment to helping small businesses thrive when we announced Apple Business Connect. This new tool gives business owners even more control over how billions of people see and engage with their products and services every day. Businesses of all sizes can now customize key information for users across Apple Maps, Messages, Wallet, Siri and other apps. Meanwhile, in retail, we celebrated 25 years of the Apple online store and also opened Apple Pacific Centre in Vancouver and Apple American Dream in New Jersey. And I'm grateful to all the teams who helped our customers throughout the busy holiday season. At Apple, we spend a lot of time focused on creating an unparalleled experience for our customers and every product and service that we offer. We're also just as dedicated to leading with our values in everything we do. As part of that work, we strengthened our deep commitment to privacy and security, giving users 3 new tools to protect their most sensitive data: iMessage contact key verification, security keys for Apple ID and advanced data protection for iCloud. At Apple, we feel a deep sense of responsibility to leave the world better than we found it. We're also a year closer to 2030, and we were ever focused on the environmental commitments we set out for the end of the decade. As an example, the latest Mac mini and MacBook Pro models all use 100% recycled aluminum in the enclosure and recycled rare earth elements in all magnets. And in a first for HomePod, we're using 100% recycled gold in the plating of multiple printed circuit boards. In honor of Black History Month, we released the Black Unity collection, including the Special Edition Apple Watch Black Unity Sport Loop, a new matching watch face and iPhone wallpaper. Through our racial, equity and justice initiative, we're expanding our support of 5 organizations focused on lifting up communities of color through technology. And we are committed as ever to building on our progress around inclusion and diversity. During the quarter, we also announced that since the inception of our Giving program 11 years ago, we've donated more than $880 million to humanitarian efforts, disaster relief, childhood education and more. And over the last 16 years through our partnership with (RED), Apple-supported grants have helped more than 11 million people get the care and support services they need. As we look ahead in 2023, we are excited about the year to come. At Apple, we are always looking forward, always focused on the next challenge, always determined to do great things with unmatched creativity and unrivaled innovation. And that makes me more confident about the future of Apple than I have ever been. With that, I'll turn it over to Luca. Luca Maestri Thank you, Tim, and good afternoon, everyone. As Tim mentioned, revenue for the December quarter was $117.2 billion, down 5% from last year. A number of factors had a significant impact on our results. First, we faced a very difficult foreign exchange environment, which affected our performance by nearly 800 basis points. In other words, we grew revenue on a constant currency basis. And in fact, we did so in the vast majority of markets. Second, the macroeconomic environment this past quarter was markedly more challenging than 12 months ago. Third, we experienced significant supply shortages for iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max in November and through December. On the other hand, we had the positive impact of the 14th week in the quarter that Tejas just mentioned at the beginning of the call. Products revenue was $96.4 billion, down 8% from last year due to the factors I just called out. At the same time, however, our installed base of active devices grew double digits and achieved all-time records in each geographic segment and in each major product category. We're proud to now have over 2 billion active devices in our installed base. This continued growth in the installed base is due to extremely strong levels of customer satisfaction and loyalty and a high number of customers who are new to our products. The installed base growth also helped our services set an all-time revenue record of $20.8 billion, up 6% over a year ago. We achieved this new milestone despite more than 700 basis points of negative impact from foreign exchange. We reached all-time services revenue records in the Americas, Europe and rest of Asia Pacific and a December quarter record in Greater China. We also set records in many Services categories, including all-time revenue records for cloud services, payment services and music and December quarter records for the App Store and AppleCare. Company gross margin was 43%, up 70 basis points from last quarter due to leverage and favorable mix, partially offset by foreign exchange. Products gross margin was 37%, up 240 basis points sequentially. And Services gross margin was 70.8%, up 30 basis points sequentially, both due to the same factors that impacted total company gross margin. Operating expenses of $14.3 billion were significantly below the guidance range we provided at the beginning of the quarter and grew at a slower pace than in the past as we took actions to respond to the current macro environment. Net income was $30 billion. Diluted earnings per share were $1.88, and we generated very strong operating cash flow of $34 billion. Let me now get into more detail for each of our revenue categories. iPhone revenue was $65.8 billion despite significant foreign exchange headwinds, supply constraints on iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max and a challenging macroeconomic environment. In spite of these circumstances, we set all-time iPhone revenue records in Canada, Italy and Spain, and saw strong growth in several emerging markets, including all-time iPhone revenue records for India and Vietnam. Importantly, the installed base of active iPhones continues to grow nicely and is at an all-time high across all geographic segments. In emerging markets, in particular, the installed base grew double digits, and we had record levels of switchers in India and in Mexico. Our customers continue to love their experience with our products with the latest survey of U.S. consumers from 451 Research indicating customer satisfaction of 98% for the iPhone 14 family. Mac revenue was $7.7 billion, down 29% year-over-year and in line with our expectations. There were 3 key drivers for our Mac results. First, we had a challenging compare against last year's launch of the completely reimagined MacBook Pros, our first notebooks with M1 Pro and M1 Max. Second, we believe that the macro environment impacted our Mac performance. And third, we faced significant foreign exchange headwinds. At the same time, however, the installed base of active Macs reached an all-time high across all geographic segments, and we continue to see very strong upgraded activity to Apple silicon. Customer satisfaction with Mac remains very strong at 96% based on the latest survey of U.S. consumers from 451 Research. iPad revenue was $9.4 billion, up 30% year-over-year despite significant FX headwinds. This performance was driven by 2 key items. First, during the December quarter a year ago, we experienced significant supply constraints, while this year, we had enough supply to meet demand. Second, we launched our new iPad and the iPad Pro powered by the M2 chip during the quarter. The iPad installed base reached a new all-time high, thanks to incredible customer loyalty and a high number of new customers. In fact, over half of the customers who purchased iPads during the quarter were new to the product. Wearables, Home and Accessories revenue was $13.5 billion, down 8% year-over-year. The year-over-year decline was driven by significant FX headwinds and a challenging macroeconomic environment. However, our installed base of devices in the category set a new all-time record thanks to the largest number of customers new to our smartwatch that we've ever had in a given quarter. In fact, nearly 2/3 of customers purchasing an Apple Watch during the quarter were new to the product. Moving to Services. We generated $20.8 billion in revenue, a new all-time record in total and for many Services offerings in spite of a difficult foreign exchange environment, and macroeconomic headwinds impacting certain categories such as digital advertising and mobile gaming. In constant currency, we grew Services revenue double digits on top of growing 24% during the December quarter a year ago. We remain focused on the large long-term opportunity in this category, and we continue to observe several trends that reflect the strength of our ecosystem. For example, we saw increased customer engagement with our Services during the quarter. Both our transacting accounts and paid accounts grew double digits year-over-year, each setting a new all-time record. Paid subscriptions also continued to grow nicely. We now have more than 935 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up more than 150 million during the last 12 months alone and nearly 4x what we had just 5 years ago. And we continue to increase the reach and improve the quality of our offerings. For instance, Apple Pay is now available to millions of merchants in nearly 70 countries and regions. And we saw a record-breaking number of purchases made using Apple Pay globally during the holiday shopping season. Finally, our installed base of over 2 billion active devices represents a great foundation for future expansion of our ecosystem, and it continues to grow even during difficult macroeconomic conditions, which speaks to the exceptionally high levels of customer loyalty and satisfaction and our ability to attract new customers to our platform. The growth is coming from every major product category and geographic segment, with strong double-digit increases in emerging markets such as Brazil, Mexico, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam. Turning to the enterprise market. we are seeing continued adoption of our Services for business like Apple Business Essentials, AppleCare, Tap to Pay and Apple Financial Services. For example, Mars Incorporated has expanded its use of AppleCare for Enterprise to provide timely device support and assurance for iPads deployed across their manufacturing sites. Meanwhile, HCA Healthcare has leveraged Apple Financial Services to manage the annual refresh of its entire fleet of iPhones. This not only ensures that their staff stay current on the latest Apple technology, but also provides them with significant annual savings in the process. Let me now turn to our capital return program and our cash position. We returned over $25 billion to shareholders during the December quarter as our business continues to generate very strong cash flow. This included $3.8 billion in dividends and equivalents and $19 billion through open market repurchases of 133 million Apple shares. We ended the quarter with $165 billion in cash and marketable securities. We repaid $1.4 billion in maturing debt and decreased commercial paper by $8.2 billion, leaving us with total debt of $111 billion. As a result, net cash was $54 billion at the end of the quarter, and we maintain our goal of becoming net cash-neutral over time. As we move into the March quarter, I'd like to review our outlook, which includes the types of forward-looking information that Tejas referred to at the beginning of the call. Given the continued uncertainty around the world in the near term, we are not providing revenue guidance, but we are sharing some directional insights based on the assumption that the macroeconomic outlook and COVID-related impacts to our business do not worsen from what we are projecting today for the current quarter. In total, we expect our March quarter year-over-year revenue performance to be similar to the December quarter. This represents an acceleration in our underlying year-over-year business performance as the December quarter benefited from an extra week. Foreign exchange will continue to be a headwind, and we expect a negative year-over-year impact of 5 percentage points. For Services, we expect revenue to grow year-over-year while continuing to face macroeconomic headwinds in areas such as digital advertising and mobile gaming. For iPhone, we expect our March quarter year-over-year revenue performance to accelerate relative to the December quarter year-over-year revenue performance. For Mac and iPad, we expect revenue for both product categories to decline double digits year-over-year because of challenging compares and macroeconomic headwinds. We expect gross margin to be between 43.5% and 44.5%. We expect OpEx to be between $13.7 billion and $13.9 billion. We expect OI&E to be around negative $100 million, excluding any potential impact from the mark-to-market of minority investments, and our tax rate to be around 16%. Finally, today, our Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.23 per share of common stock payable on February 16, 2023, to shareholders of record as of February 13, 2023. With that, let's open the call to questions. Tejas Gala Thank you, Luca. [Operator Instructions]. Operator, may we have the first question, please. Question-and-Answer Session Operator [Operator Instructions]. Certainly. We will go ahead and take our first question from David Vogt with UBS. David Vogt So Tim, and maybe this is for Luca as well. You talked about the supply chain returning back to normal after a very difficult October, November, but we're still seeing some disruptions across tech products, whether it's enterprise or consumer-facing. How do you think about your supply chain and maybe the levels of inventory or builds that you might need as we go forward to sort of insulate your business from these sort of episodic disruptions? Have you changed your view? And if so, how does that affect ultimately margins and sort of your balance sheet and cash flow items going forward? Timothy Cook This is Tim, David. From a supply point of view, we did see disruption from early November through most of December. And from a supply chain point of view, we're now at a point where production is what we need it to be. And so the problem is behind us. In terms of going forward in the supply chain, we build our products everywhere. There are component parts coming from many different countries in the world, and the final assembly coming from 3 countries in the world on just iPhone. And so we continue to optimize it. We'll continue to optimize it over time and change it to continue to improve. I think when you sort of zoom out and back up from it, the last 3 years have been a pretty difficult time between COVID and silicon shortages and the like. And I think it's -- I think we have had a very resilient supply chain in the aggregate. In terms of supply for this quarter, which I think was one of your points, I think we're in decent supply on most products for the quarter currently. Operator Our next question is from Shannon Cross of Credit Suisse. Shannon Cross Luca, I wanted to dig a bit more into the commentary on gross margins. The guidance, especially at 43.5% to 44.5%, is obviously quite strong. So I'm wondering what's helping you out there, assume mix and some other things. And then how should we think about what currency and hedge is going to do as we look forward? And then I have a follow-up. Luca Maestri Shannon, yes, I mean, we've had good margin for the December quarter to start with. We reported 43%. Obviously, in December, we have the benefit of leverage because of the seasonality of the business, but we also had favorable mix across the board. Of course, foreign exchange is an issue right now. In the December quarter on a sequential basis, foreign exchange was a negative 110 basis points for us. And on a year-over-year basis, it's 300 basis points. So obviously, the FX environment has changed a lot during the last 12 months. For March, yes, we've seen a margin expansion, 43.5% to 44.5%. We're doing a lot of work around cost, of course. Mix will continue to help, both within categories and services mix as we move away from the holiday season. But we're doing a lot of work on the cost structure, and that is paying off. Foreign exchange is still a negative, about 50 basis points sequentially, but it's mitigating. The last couple of weeks, the dollar has weakened a bit. And so hopefully, as we go through the year, hopefully, things will improve. But for now, as you correctly state, we are in a good position on margins. Shannon Cross And then, Tim, can you talk a bit about China? What you're seeing -- obviously, you've had the issues with production, but I mean more on the demand side. As we've gotten through Chinese New Year and the opening, I'm just wondering, are you seeing the Chinese consumer come back? What are they buying? And how are you thinking about your position there? Timothy Cook Shannon, last quarter, we declined by 7% on a reported basis, but we actually grew on a constant currency basis. And that was despite some significant -- the supply constraints that we talked about earlier. And obviously, the sort of the COVID restrictions throughout China that happened in various different places throughout the country also impacted the demand during the quarter. When you look at the opening that started happening in December, we saw a marked change in traffic in our stores as compared to November. And that followed through to demand as well. And I don't want to get into January. We've obviously -- January is included in the guidance, or the color rather, that Luca provided earlier. But we did see a marked change from December compared to November. Operator Our next question is from Erik Woodring of Morgan Stanley. Erik Woodring Maybe, Tim, first one for you. That 2 billion installed base -- device installed base figure, that's up, I believe, 200 million units year-over-year. That implies the strongest annual gain in new devices in your installed base basically as far back as you've provided those data points. And so I guess my 2 questions are: one, do you -- can you provide the installed base for the iPhone at year-end? And then two, is there anything that you see in this new cohort of users that might look different or similar to past cohorts, either by demographic or regions or monetization ramp? And then I have a follow-up. Timothy Cook Yes. The installed base is now over 2 billion active devices, as you mentioned. And we set records across each geographic segment and major product category. And so it was a broad-based change. Two -- I'll correct one thing you said, it's up over 150 million year-over-year. The last report we reported to be over 1.85. And so it's 150 million, which we're very proud of. We also saw strong double-digit in several of the emerging markets, which is very important to us. For example, India and Brazil as just 2 examples. So very, very strong. And obviously, it bodes well for the future. Erik Woodring And then, Luca, obviously, the December quarter was negatively impacted by the production challenges. Can you just maybe unpackage where channel inventory levels are today kind of across the iPhone broadly? And then what the data that you're seeing so far this quarter is telling you about iPhone demand deferral versus kind of iPhone demand destruction and perhaps pushing some upgrades later into the year rather than into the March quarter? And that's it for me. Timothy Cook Yes. Erik, I'll take that one as well. The channel inventory levels on iPhone, we obviously ended the December quarter below our target range given the supply challenges on iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max. But as you think about this, keep in mind that a year ago, we also exited the December quarter below our target inventory range because of supply challenges in the year ago quarter. Not related -- not the same issue, but just as a point. And so that hopefully gives you some flavor of that. In terms of what we're seeing in January, we've included in our color that Luca provided kind of our thinking. It's very hard to estimate the recapture because you have to know exactly what would have happened and how many people bought down. And it takes a while to get that -- to get those reports in during the quarter. And so we've made our best guess at it. In terms of the sizing of the constraint in Q1, what we estimate, although not with precision, is that we would -- I thought we believe iPhone would have grown during the quarter had it not been for the supply shortages. So hopefully, that provides you a little bit of color. Operator Our next question comes from Aaron Rakers of Wells Fargo. Aaron Rakers I have two as well, if I can. I guess the first kind of question, just going back on the gross margin line. Pretty good guidance into this March quarter. I'm curious if you unpack that a little bit specific around what you're seeing as far as maybe benefits from component pricing in the guidance, if you're embedding any of that at this point. Luca Maestri Yes. Of course, with our guidance, we try to capture every aspect of our cost structure. And obviously, components are a big portion of that. So definitely, that's included. And keep in mind, again, that foreign exchange -- I mentioned earlier, I think to Shannon, that the sequential negative on FX is 50 basis points, versus a year ago, it's 270 basis points. Obviously, the U.S. dollar has moved a lot over the last 12 months. So obviously, we need to find offsets and more to the negative FX in order to be able to provide this kind of guidance. And so obviously, components are a big part of that. Aaron Rakers Yes. And then kind of from a strategic perspective, given kind of the things that we're seeing out in some of your peer group, I'm curious, Tim, how you think about the role of AI in your strategy as far as particularly in the Services segment, whether you're not -- you see opportunities to excel monetization abilities within the paid subscriber base and whether or not AI, is it something that you're implementing a bit more strategically there. Timothy Cook Yes. It is a major focus of ours. It's incredible in terms of how it can enrich customers' lives. And you can look no further than some of the things that we announced in the fall with crash detection and fall detection or back a ways with ECG. I mean these things have literally saved people's lives. And so we see an enormous potential in this space to affect virtually everything we do. It's obviously a horizontal technology, not a vertical. And so it will affect every product and every service that we have. Operator Our next question comes from Amit Daryanani of Evercore. Amit Daryanani I guess the first one I have is, Tim, I think based on your earlier comments that iPhones would have grown ex the production issue that implied that maybe it's a $7 billion or so impact that you had in December quarter from the production challenges on the high-end models. I'm sure it's tough to see what happens this time around. But I think historically, when you've had production issues or things like this happen, what has the consumer behavior being typically? Do they tend to go down towards the lower end models and get the phone they want quickly? Or do they just defer the production? Just from a historical perspective, I think do you typically recover what's deferred out or no? Timothy Cook It's very hard to estimate is the real answer because you have to know a lot of data, and it's usually only in hindsight that you have a more reasonable view of it. And so we put our best views in the color that Luca provided. That's kind of what I would say. Amit Daryanani All right. And then I guess maybe if I think about Services as you go forward. I know you had really good growth in Services, I think, over the last several years. But as you go forward in Services, what do you think drives the growth more so? Is it the expansion of your installed base? Or is it more going to be driven by ARPU going higher for you? I'm just curious, how do you think about those 2 buckets as you go forward? Luca Maestri Amit, there's a number of things, and I've mentioned a few of them during the call. The first step is always the installed base. Installed base is the engine for Services growth. And the fact that the installed base is growing very nicely, and it's growing in a lot of emerging markets, it's growing even faster, that gives us a larger addressable pool of customers. So that's incredibly important. The second one is that we are seeing that the level of engagement of our customers already in our ecosystem continues to grow. We -- I mentioned that both transacting accounts and paid accounts grew double digits. And so that bodes very well for the future. And we have a lot of transacting accounts that kind of moved to paid accounts over time. The other aspect that is very important for us is to continue constantly to improve the reach and the quality of our services. And I give the example of Apple Pay, which it's a great example because we started off primarily in the United States. Now we've taken it to 70 markets, millions of merchants. And so obviously, payment services are -- continue to set new highs all the time for us. And then as you've seen over the last few years, we also launched new services over time, and that obviously contributes to the growth. We're very excited. And when we look at the behavior of our installed base, we think it's very promising for the continued growth of our Services business. Operator Our next question comes from Harsh Kumar of Piper Sandler. Harsh Kumar Tim, I had a quick question on emerging markets. Seems like you're making a lot of strides in India. Potentially wanted to understand the kind of share you have in China and India. And relative to that, what would be your aspirational but sort of achievable share in iPhones in those territories, whether it's units or revenues? And I was hoping to draw on your experience and maybe what you've seen in other countries where you've had some longer presence. Timothy Cook And looking at the business in India, we set a quarterly revenue record and grew very strong double digits year-over-year. And so we feel very good about how we performed, and that was -- that's despite the headwinds that we've talked about. Taking a step back, India is a hugely exciting market for us and is a major focus. We brought the online store there in 2020. We will soon bring Apple retail there. So we're putting a lot of emphasis on the market. There's been a lot done from a financing options and trade-ins to make products more affordable and give people more options to buy. And so there's a lot going on there. We are, in essence, taking what we learned in China years ago and how we scale to China and bringing that to bear. And I don't have the exact market shares in front of me, but I think you would see that from a market share point of view that we grew around the world last quarter despite -- on iPhone despite the challenges that we've had on the supply side. And I wouldn't expect to have a difference in those 2 markets. Harsh Kumar Understood. And for my follow-up, I had a sort of interesting theoretical question on pricing. Assuming we get the CHIPS Act passed, and there's a whole bunch of manufacturing that happens in U.S. and other territories that are potentially somewhat more expensive than the ones you might be now, have you -- has the company done any studies to gauge the elasticity of demand relative to small price increases in your products? Timothy Cook We have experience in that, but I wouldn't necessarily draw the same conclusion that you have in terms of the cost of the product. I -- we don't know at this point exactly what that will be, but we're all in, in terms of being the largest customer for TSMC in Arizona. I'm very proud to take part in that. That's what I would say about that. Operator Our next question comes from Wamsi Mohan of Bank of America. Wamsi Mohan Tim, you've done a phenomenal job of driving consumer choice towards higher-end products within your portfolio. How would you compare this cycle for iPhones if you were to segment the Pro versus non-Pro models versus the cycles from the past few years? And do you think this move to higher ASPs is sustainable? Or do you think it reverses in a tighter consumer spending environment? And I have a follow-up. Timothy Cook The Pro has been a -- the 14 Pro and the 14 Pro Max have done extremely well up until the point where we had a supply shortage and couldn't provide them -- couldn't provide the total of the demand. And so it's definitely a strong Pro cycle. I think there's a number of reasons for that, but the most important one is always the product. And I think the innovations and the product speak for themselves. And we feel very good about the product that we announced back in September and are happy to now be at a point where we're shipping to the demand. Wamsi Mohan And Tim, do you think that this move to sort of higher ASPs that has happened over the last few years is sustainable? Or could it sustain in this very tough macro environment that you've cited? Timothy Cook I wouldn't want to predict, but I would say that the smartphone for us, the iPhone has become so integral into people's lives. It contains their contacts and their health information and their banking information and their smart home and so many different parts of their lives, their payment vehicle and -- for many people. And so I think people are willing to really stretch to get the best they can afford in that category. Wamsi Mohan Okay. Great. And Tim, you clearly emphasize the focus and importance of the installed base. If we think about the absolute grit of the installed base from 1 billion to 2 billion over 7 years from a device standpoint, how should we think about the penetration of services or the growth in paying customers on services or that time frame? Is that penetration rate increasing or decreasing? How fast is that growing relative to the growth of the overall installed base? Luca Maestri Wamsi, it's Luca. Yes, of course, we keep track of that. It's really important for us. Over the last 7 years, as we doubled the installed base, we've seen a growing engagement of our customers on the platform. That happens, first of all, by customers transacting on the platform and then moving to paid accounts. So starting to pay for some of the services. That percentage of paid accounts tends to grow over time. We've seen it in developed markets. We see it in emerging markets. And that is due to some of the reasons that I was explaining earlier, including the fact that we made it easier for our customers to get engaged on the platform. For example, we offer multiple payment methods in many countries. And we've made it easier to explore for more services because we've added a lot of services on the platform over the last 7 years. So to your question, of course, higher engagement means a higher percentage of paid accounts over time. Operator Our next question comes from Richard Kramer of Arete Research LLP. Tejas Gala Operator, can we move on to the next? Operator Next, we'll hear from Jim Suva of Citigroup. James Suva Tim and Luca, you both mentioned earlier on the Q&A a little bit about India. I was wondering if we're now entering a situation of even more opportunity because we've exited COVID, we've exited countries with different COVID criteria. We've also seen India build out its higher speed transmissions. And your market is -- shares tremendously underrepresented there. And it appears with the supply chain, you're looking at diversifying kind of operational risk not specific to any country, but just overall. Now you look at potentially opening up stores and stuff. Am I right that, that's the way you look at it is it's even more prime for opportunity now than ever? And once you start opening up stores there, you could just see a complete green shoot of adoptions or any additional commentary on your view on India as now we've navigated COVID and supply chain and so many challenges over the past 2 years? Timothy Cook Yes. Jim, we actually did fairly well through COVID in India. And I'm even more bullish now on the other side of it, or hopefully, on the other side of it. And that's the reason why we're investing there. We're bringing retail there and bringing the online store there and putting a significant amount of energy there. I'm very bullish on India. James Suva And then as my quick follow-up, you had mentioned that Services, not necessarily specific to India, but Services overall were better than expected. And of course, supply chain was more challenged than expected. So what was the bridge factor of Services being better than expected on upside? Was it like advertising or apps or paid monthly subscriptions? Or what were kind of the things that really surprised you to the upside on Services? Luca Maestri It was -- Jim, it's Luca. It's primarily the -- this level of engagement we saw, which then reflects into the, as you said, the paid subscriptions. We saw very good results in our cloud services business in payment services. Music was very strong. So we had a number of categories that set new records, all-time records. And they did a bit better than we were expecting at the beginning of the quarter. And so Tim mentioned that during, I think, his prepared remarks that when you look at it in constant currency, we grew services double digits. And that was on top of a 24% increase a year ago. So it's very sustained growth that we're seeing. Operator Our next question will come from Krish Sankar of Cowen and Company. Krish Sankar I have 2. The first one, Tim and Luca, you mentioned how the macro did soften, and it has an impact. And as consumers tighten their belt, when you look across your hardware products and service businesses, where are you seeing the biggest impact and where are you seeing the least impact from the softening macro? And then I had a quick follow-up. Timothy Cook We think there were some impact across the products and in Services. Probably, the ones that we saw the most impact on were Mac and Wearables. You can see that in those numbers. And probably, the least would have been iPhone. Krish Sankar Got it. Got it. Very helpful, Tim. And then just a quick follow-up on the Mac. The PC industry is expecting a decline in PC shipments this year also. How do you think about the Mac relative to kind of like where the PC industry as a whole is expecting the shipments to end up? Is there any color you can give on that? Timothy Cook The industry is very challenged, as you say. It's -- the industry is contracting. I think from us, though, is -- and I don't know how this year will play out, so I don't want to predict the year. But over the long run, we have a market that is a reasonable-sized market, a big market. And we have low share, and we have a competitive advantage with Apple silicon. And so strategically, I think we're well positioned in the market, albeit I think it will be a little rough in the short term. Tejas Gala A replay of today's call will be available for 2 weeks on Apple Podcasts, as a webcast on apple.com/investor and via telephone. The number for the telephone replay is 866-583-1035. Please enter confirmation code 6541285, followed by the pound sign. These replays will be available by approximately 5 p.m. Pacific Time today. Members of the press with additional questions can contact Josh Rosenstock at 408-862-1142. Financial analysts can contact me with additional questions at 669-227-2402. Thank you again for joining us. Operator And once again, this does conclude today's conference. We do appreciate your participation. - Read more current AAPL analysis and news - View all earnings call transcripts Comments (8)

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Google: My Top Anti-Bubble Pick

After Q4 earnings, Alphabet Inc. remains the cheapest name in my beaten-down 4. See why I think it may be a while before we get deals like this for GOOG stock again.

SeekingAlpha

Google: My Top Anti-Bubble Pick Summary - With tech and IT obliterated and energy gravitated, we are in a tech anti-bubble. - Google stock remains the cheapest name in my beaten-down 4. - With the S&P 500 forming its first Golden Cross since the downturn in stocks, it may be a while before we get deals like this again. The anti-bubble quartet In previous articles addressing the "anti-bubble" framework used by Nick Sleep and Qais Zakaria in the Nomad Letters, this is something I have used as a foundation for happy value hunting. Whilst energy was down in 2020-21, tech was soaring. Now the tables have turned and we should turn to tech to hunt. While energy is certainly not a bubble based on current fundamentals, the underlying cyclical commodity from which they profit may have hit a peak. On the other hand, digital advertising and e-commerce are seeing a downturn leading to a sell-off in my favorite tech names. The quartet includes Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL) ("Google"), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), and Microsoft Corporation (MSFT). I would throw Apple Inc. (AAPL) in there as well, but that chart is still defying gravity. All of these companies are the cream of the crop when we look back at what management has demonstrated in the allocation of capital. This is easily seen through the lens of ROIC and high-profit margins; when a segment of the market gets hit, I don't have to look far. Give me the best-managed companies at a fair discount to the historical averages. Although META stock has fallen out of my top-end price range of $146, Google is still squarely in it. Alphabet Inc. stock is a buy. Although I'm no chartist, the Golden Cross for the S&P 500 (SP500) is forming, and all boats may be lifted for some time. I hope my chance to accumulate lasts a little longer. Alphabet's story 'til now Alphabet Inc., like Meta, derives a lion's share of its earnings from digital ad revenue. It is my opinion, that until some amazing VC comes up with an acceptable way to put a chip in our heads and beam ads directly to us, digital advertising will continue to grow. Yes, we should expect a pullback in all company marketing expenses when the economy slows, but when it snaps back, look out. Google and Meta will be on a hiring spree again once that fulcrum hits. Top line numbers for Alphabet Inc. are still growing on a TTM basis while the bottom line is slowing. Non-GAAP earnings are still growing as well on the other hand. Google's digital advertising businesses have become so dominant and effective that they are now being sued by the U.S. Government to break up their monopoly. While this is a risk, it is also a reaffirmation that Alphabet has the crème de la crème digital ad portfolio. When the government calls you out, you know you've made it! Hot off the presses, you can also find the Q4 2022 Alphabet top-line numbers above. Total revenues came in slightly ahead of 2021, with ad revenue down a couple of billion dollars and cloud services up a couple of billion to offset that decline. All in all, Google revenue is flat, with the most positive item being the growth in cloud services revenue up 32% yoy. Even with the news of layoffs at Alphabet, they still ended 2022 with 33,734 more employees than in 2021. Management effectiveness Warren Buffett has said on more than one occasion that effective management, creates value with their retained earnings: "For every dollar retained, make sure the company has created at least one dollar of market value." In the case of Alphabet Inc., it has one similarity to Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B, BRK.A) in that returns to the investor are through retained earnings and the growth of their holdings and businesses. Neither pays a dividend, so we have to trust them with their capital allocation decisions. Very few stocks without a dividend are even worth buying. This, like Berkshire, is one of them. Market cap to retained earnings ratio Charting out the ratio between market value and retained earnings is rather easy. Since retained earnings is a cumulative number on the balance sheet, the most recent TTM number will be your total retained earnings number. Even with the drop, if we look at Alphabet's cumulative retained earnings of $191.48 Billion and a market cap of $1.387 trillion, we get a market cap to retained earnings ratio of 7.26. In other words, over time Alphabet's management has created $7.26 of market value for every dollar of retained earnings. The retained earnings value creation number is astounding. However, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft also have a secret weapon, an expense called R&D. This is listed as an operating expense, but in essence, is also a part of retained earnings. They get to expense this item, and then you as the investor reap the fruits of the businesses that it spawns from the research and development. Mohnish Pabrai likes to use a framework addressing these companies as "spawners" - and I certainly concur with the analogy. While much of the market value of Alphabet Inc., especially at its peak capitalization, was based on a bubble mentality, you still had the option of realizing a huge return if you chose to do so. Sometimes, promotion and product perception can add as much value as effective capital allocation. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is a good example of this. ROIC Including both the debt and equity of the business, ROIC (return on invested capital) is Joel Greenblatt's favorite metric for effective management. According to my brokerage, Alphabet has a return on assets of 22.4%, a return on equity of 32%, and a return on invested capital ROIC of 28.94%. Throw in a gross profit margin of 56.9% and a net of 30% and you can see how Alphabet management has created so much value for its investors with their retained earnings, R&D investments, and acquisitions. This is blue-chip management team through and through. Valuation In my previous article on Alphabet Inc., I used a standard trailing PEG ratio incorporating GAAP earnings to create a price target. At the time, the existing data indicated a GAAP earnings growth rate of 22.74%. Therefore, I used 22.74 as the multiplier and the GAAP EPS as a multiplicand to get my low-end price target of around $96. We can see in the GAAP instance that growth for the TTM is trending lower than the previous year, but if we look at Non-GAAP EBITDA, Google is still growing. The TTM EBITDA numbers for Google/Alphabet are at $93.733 Billion. With 13.242 Billion shares outstanding, that equates to $7.078 in EBITDA per share. The EBITDA CAGR, incorporating the TTM as our terminal value to end 2022, would equal a trailing 5-year growth rate of 17.8%. Using 17.8 as a multiple and $7.078 as our multiplicand, we get a price target of $120.89. This is getting toward our upper-end, but still within value parameters. In spawners with lots of R&D and tax benefits, the non-GAAP under-the-hood methods are my preferred method. Although growth has slowed a bit from my last article, where I pegged the upper-end based on EBIT growth at $143, the price still fits value within the reduced price target. Balance sheet trends The Alphabet balance sheet hasn't changed much since my last article. Still loads of cash at $116 Billion, a debt-to-equity ratio of 11.57%, and a current ratio of 2.52 X. With this enormous cash balance, it certainly helps me sleep well at night knowing the Alphabet will never be in a cash crunch regardless of interest rates. How many stocks do you hold where you could say the same? Truth is, there are only a handful of stocks whose balance sheets I feel supremely confident in, and Google/Alphabet is one of the few. Cash flow trends With a TTM free cash flow ("FCF") of just over $62.5 Billion, the rich get richer. With TTM EBITDA for Alphabet at $93.733 Billion, that's an EBITDA to FCF conversion ratio of 66%. The CAGR in free cash flow from 2018 to TTM is over 22% per annum, more evidence that management is doing an amazing job to help us relax and hold with confidence. Catalysts TikTok ban. While ad revenue and earnings beating estimates are great, a banning of rival TikTok would be all too juicy for the market to digest. The issue is now getting bipartisan support on the Hill. TikTok, owned by China's ByteDance, should be removed from app stores run by Apple Inc and Alphabet's Google because the short video social media app poses a risk to national security, Senator Michael Bennet, a Democrat on the intelligence committee, said in a letter dated Thursday. An all-out ban of the TikTok app would leave Alphabet and Meta as the chief candidates to absorb the business that would be left in TikTok's wake. Both have been optimizing their short video products to match. There should be enough business out there for both to have a nice lunch. Risks There is an anti-trust lawsuit to break up Google's "monopoly" on digital advertising. Below is a summary of the lawsuit. Filed in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia, the complaint alleges that Google monopolizes key digital advertising technologies, collectively referred to as the “ad tech stack,” that website publishers depend on to sell ads and that advertisers rely on to buy ads and reach potential customers. Website publishers use ad tech tools to generate advertising revenue that supports the creation and maintenance of a vibrant open web, providing the public with unprecedented access to ideas, artistic expression, information, goods, and services. Through this monopolization lawsuit, the Justice Department and state Attorneys General seek to restore competition in these important markets and obtain equitable and monetary relief on behalf of the American public. What would a breakup of Alphabet look like? Nobody knows. A slew of spinoffs as from the old AT&T (T) (Baby Bells), maybe. Either way, the digital advertising businesses of Google/Alphabet are invaluable and would receive a much higher multiple to EBITDA than what we pay for Google stock currently in my opinion. Investors will be compensated one way or another. Plus adept lobbyists are certainly working while we speak with defense attorneys hand in hand. I'm not extremely worried, but the price could suffer from perception if action is taken and Google flat-out loses the suit. Conclusion Alphabet Inc. remains one of the best-managed businesses in the world. CEO Sundar Pichai has done wonders, maintaining high-profit margins and ROIC with a lot of sharks in the water. I have moved my focus from energy to tech as my anti-bubble of choice. I do fear that the window may be closing without being able to accumulate enough, but there are certainly worse things in the world than that. I remain unconstrained in where I hunt, and adore value wherever it may be. Google is my favorite anti-bubble stock because it has the strongest balance sheet of the bunch plus one of the more modest GAAP and Non-GAAP valuations. Not as cheap as it used to be, but I reiterate buy for GOOG with a PT of $120. This article was written by Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of GOOGL, GOOG, AMZN, MSFT, META, AAPL either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body. Comments (47) The first problem is they went from only hiring people with PHDs to a bloated big company. The second problem is they took sides in politics and social issues and alienated a large number of customers. The third problem is their business model relies on spying on their customers which people are becoming less and less accepting.

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Democratic senator urges Apple, Google to kick TikTok out of app stores

TikTok, owned by China's ByteDance, should be removed from app stores run by Apple Inc and Alphabet's Google because the short video social media app poses a risk to national security, Senator Michael Bennet, a Democrat on the intelligence committee, said in a letter dated...

Reuters

Democratic senator urges Apple, Google to kick TikTok out of app stores WASHINGTON, Feb 2 (Reuters) - TikTok, owned by China's ByteDance, should be removed from app stores run by Apple Inc (AAPL.O) and Alphabet's (GOOGL.O) Google because the short video social media app poses a risk to national security, Senator Michael Bennet, a Democrat on the intelligence committee, said in a letter dated Thursday. The app, which Congress has already banned from federal government devices, has come under increasing criticism because of concern that China's government could use it to harvest data on Americans or advance Chinese interests. "No company subject to CCP (Chinese Communist Party) dictates should have the power to accumulate such extensive data on the American people or curate content to nearly a third of our population," Bennet wrote in the letter to Alphabet Chief Executive Sundar Pichai and Apple CEO Tim Cook. "Given these risks, I urge you to remove TikTok from your respective app stores immediately," he wrote. Prior to Bennet's letter, Republicans have largely led the charge on TikTok and national security concerns, although Democratic Senator Dick Durbin previously urged Americans to stop using the app. In the House, which is now in Republican hands, the Foreign Affairs Committee plans to hold a vote this month on a bill aimed at blocking TikTok's use in the United States, the committee confirmed. read more In 2020, then-President Donald Trump attempted to block new users from downloading TikTok and ban other transactions that would have effectively prevented TikTok's use in the United States, but the move was rebuffed by the courts. For its part, the company says China's government cannot access the personal data of U.S. citizens or manipulate the app's content. TikTok Chief Executive Shou Zi Chew is due to appear before the U.S. House Energy and Commerce Committee in March. read more Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Investing in Penny Stocks? Do These 3 Things Before You Buy

Before investing in penny stocks, take a look at these 3 things

PennyStocks

3 Things All Penny Stock Investors Need to Know Investing in penny stocks is hard. And, making money with penny stocks is even more challenging. But, for those who are determined and willing to do the work, it can be very worth it. Now, there are a few things that all those who want to invest in penny stocks need to know. And we’ll get into that in great detail. However, now, investors need to understand the current trends. First, we have the effect of social media on the entire stock market. With Robinhood and Reddit working in tandem to support retail investors, finding and buying penny stocks has never been easier. However, finding penny stocks on Reddit and Robinhood can have ups and downs. On the one hand, these cheap stocks tend to be highly volatile. This is due to the nature of stocks under $5 and the intense speculation. But, using social media to find penny stocks for your watchlist can be a great tool if you follow the next step.[Read More] Trading Penny Stocks? 7 Things to Know For Beginners The next step is research. We cannot stress this enough. Research will always be the core difference between a profitable and unprofitable portfolio. This is something that all pro traders will tell you is arguably one of the most critical steps. So, with these two things in mind before we go any further, learning how to invest in penny stocks can be an enjoyable experience. If you’re debating it, here are three things you need to consider. 3 Things to Know When Investing in Penny Stocks - Getting a Trading Education - Understanding Volatility as an Advantage - Creating a Penny Stock Watchlist 1. Getting a Trading Education One of the most valuable things any trader can do is educate themselves on how to trade penny stocks. This ties into the research stage; however, there are some nuances. For one, a trading education takes time. Yes, it includes understanding the basics, but there are more advanced factors to consider. This could be anything from trading patterns and knowing how to enter and exit a position, as well as others. In line with this, traders need to know what type of traders they are. For example, looking at daily technical indicators may not be necessary if you only intend to buy and hold long-term positions in penny stocks. However, if you wish to swing trade or buy and sell penny stock quickly, using these indicators will be crucial to trading. Understanding what makes the market and specific penny stocks go up and down is extremely important. And plenty of online resources allow you to get a trading education. Beware that this is not a five-minute process. Learning the ins and outs of buying penny stocks takes time and dedication. You wouldn’t trust a surgeon who learned how to perform surgery in a few days? So why would you trade without knowledge of what to look for? New To Trading Penny Stocks? If you’re interested in learning more about penny stocks, the stock market, and how to trade, check out True Trading Group, the fastest-growing & highest-rated online premium educational platform available today. True Trading Group offers a 7-day Trial of its platform for $3 (non-autorenewing, nonrecurring): To Learn More Click Here. 2. Understanding Volatility as an Advantage Volatility is one of the main benefits that penny stocks can offer. Because stocks under $5 move up and down frequently, many traders use these securities to capitalize on short-term gains. However, on the other hand, volatility can be a significant downside for those who don’t know how to use it. When first trading penny stocks, it can be easy to watch your portfolio go from green to red quickly.[Read More] 3 ‘Must Haves’ For Penny Stocks to Be Worth Investing In Most new traders lean toward the largest movers of the day or popular penny stocks on Reddit or other social media sites. However, this puts you at a major disadvantage to traders that know how to use volatility and what to look for. So, what do you need to look for when using volatility as an advantage? Well, the number one aspect to consider is speculation. Speculation is a somewhat all-encompassing term that describes any external factor affecting a penny stock. This could be news, press releases, balance sheets, industry-wide announcements, or anything similar. While we like to think that penny stocks trade on fundamentals alone, in reality, speculation accounts for most of the moves that a penny stock will make. Because of this, having access to real-time news software will always be your best friend. In addition, investors can look at the industry a penny stock is in and see what that specific market is doing in the present and the future. This is the best way to avoid unexpected moves in your portfolio. Additionally, investors should understand a wide range of technical indicators. This plays into the section above on having a trading education. So, if you combine technical indicators with an understanding of speculation, finding penny stocks to buy can be easier than previously imagined. 3. Creating a Penny Stock Watchlist We’ve covered this topic numerous times in the past few months. But, if you’re unfamiliar, let’s take another look. Creating a penny stock watchlist is the best way to prepare yourself for trading. While it may sound complicated, there are a few techniques to make the process as easy as pie. The first is setting up a scanner. This can be done on popular trading platforms like ThinkOrSwim and via online resources as well. Investors can input information on different trading platforms, such as volume, long-term trends, industry, technical indicators, and more. This will then spit out a list of stocks based on your parameters.[Read More] Fed Meeting Live: 10 Takeaways From 1st 2023 FOMC Meeting & Statement Are Penny Stocks Worth It? All of this information is only helpful if you put it to use. Learning how to trade penny stocks will be the best way to avoid losing money in your portfolio. However, because penny stocks are so volatile, there is always a chance to do so. And while penny stocks have gotten a bad rap over the past few decades, the reality is that there are plenty of valuable companies under $5 out there. However, knowing how to find them and which ones are worth it is up to you.

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Apple Fiscal Q1: That's Gotta Hurt

Apple Inc. reported a big double miss on its fiscal Q1 2023 earnings report. While it is a quality company, read why I rate AAPL stock a Hold.

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Apple Fiscal Q1: That's Gotta Hurt Summary - Apple Inc. reported a big double miss on its fiscal Q1 2023 earnings report. - Apple is facing serious macro challenges. - Apple is a quality company, but it's not perfect, and it trades at a high valuation right now. - Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Cash Flow Club get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More » Article Thesis Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) reported fiscal Q1 2023 results that significantly underperformed estimates. Growth has turned negative, for one of the weakest performances among big tech companies so far this earnings season. Since shares are still pricey, they don't look attractive going into a potential recession, I believe. What Happened? Apple reported its fiscal first-quarter earnings results on Thursday afternoon. The company missed estimates on both lines, and it wasn't especially close: The company saw its revenue decline 6% year-over-year, missing estimates by 4%. EPS estimates trailed the consensus estimate by 4% as well. Not surprisingly, the market reaction has been negative, as shares trade down about 4% at the time of writing. Apple's Fiscal Q1: One Of The Worst Big Tech Quarters The current environment isn't the most beneficial one for major tech companies -- they previously benefitted from the pandemic quite a lot, as home-schooling, work-from-home, and screentime-based hobbies were major growth drivers for Apple, Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), and so on. However, the current environment isn't as helpful. In fact, there are some macro trends that are hurting the business performance of these large-cap tech players: consumers prefer to go out more and are spending less time at their homes and in front of their computers, tablets, or TVs. At the same time, high inflation and a potential recession are bad for the willingness of consumers to buy high-priced discretionary consumer goods, and businesses are less willing to spend heavily on advertisements. It's thus not really surprising to see that these big tech names have not reported overly attractive results so far this earnings season. Alphabet reported a 1% revenue increase, while Meta Platforms reported a 4.5% revenue decline. Microsoft grew its revenue by 2%, while Netflix (NFLX) reported a similar growth rate. None of that was too compelling, and yet, they all outperformed Apple, which saw its sales fall the most, by 6% year-over-year. I believe that there's a good explanation for that: Apple's products are the most discretionary ones among these companies, thus consumers can save money easily by avoiding a new phone purchase. When consumers want to save money, keeping their old phone for an additional year is an easy choice. Cancelling Netflix saves less money and means that Netflix can't be used anymore, while almost all phone functions are available from a 1,2, or 3-year-old iPhone. When consumers stop their Windows or Office subscription, that has a large impact on what they can do with their PCs -- but prolonging one's phone purchasing cycle has relatively few impacts on one's life. I thus am not surprised to see that Apple has fared the worst so far this earnings season among these big tech companies when it comes to revenue generation. The fact that spending that is "easy to avoid" is being avoided the most is also seen in Apple's revenues when we look at its different product categories: Service spending is the hardest to avoid, as this means that subscriptions can't be used any longer. As a result, services revenue was up -- app purchases are small, thus consumers don't think about these purchases a lot, and getting rid of subscriptions hurts, which is why few consumers do it. But keeping existing hardware for a little longer before buying the next upgrade is a rather easy choice, as it means that consumers don't really have to forego anything they've had so far (which is true when subscriptions are canceled). At the same time, Apple's hardware has sizeable price tags, thus these aren't buy-them-without-thinking-too-hard-about-it purchases for most consumers. Hardware revenue, thus, performed a lot worse than service revenue. Mac revenue performed the worst on a relative basis -- I do believe this is not surprising. Macs are Apple's most expensive products, thus consumers that suffer from inflation and that are worried about a potential recession are especially likely to forego the purchase of such a big-ticket item. The macro environment isn't Apple's fault, of course -- it can't control the fact that inflation makes consumers spend more money on food, energy, housing, and so on, which means they have less cash available for discretionary purchases. Apple also can't control the Fed's tightening path, which will possibly cause a recession, which hurts consumer spending further. It's thus not Apple that is at fault for a difficult macro environment where Apple's hardware-based sales are hurting, relative to more subscription-based companies such as Microsoft that are outperforming Apple. But the fact that Apple is not at fault for the macro environment does not mean that Apple's shares should trade at a very elevated valuation forever. Apple has seen down years and no-growth years in the past as well. Overall, the revenue trend has been upward, but the last two years aren't very representative of Apple's historic business growth. As shown earlier, the pandemic was a boon for Apple, whereas its sales growth has been rather moderate in prior years, with some ups and downs in between: That's not really surprising -- after all, Apple mostly is a hardware consumer goods company, and those tend to experience ups and downs, while growth generally isn't outrageously high. And that can work out well for shareholders if shares are purchased at reasonable valuations. That's where one of Apple's current issues comes from: AAPL stock is too expensive, and one might argue it's almost priced for perfection. When an at least somewhat cyclical hardware consumer goods company that is mostly active in more or less mature markets (the smartphone market isn't growing much these days) is priced for perfection, that can cause considerable downside potential. Apple clearly is experiencing major headwinds from the macro environment right now, as inflation and an economic downturn hurt its sales potential due to consumers becoming more reluctant to buy high-priced tech products. If Apple was valued at 10x earnings or 15x earnings, that wouldn't be a major issue -- but Apple is going into this downturn at a historically high valuation: Apple currently trades at a 44% premium to its long-term average earnings multiple, while the premium to its long-term average EV/EBITDA ratio is even larger, at 67%. I believe that the EV/EBITDA multiple is more telling, as it accounts for changes in debt usage and for the changing size of Apple's cash position. But even a 44% premium to its historic net profit multiple is pretty sizeable. Keep in mind that these calculations use the current EPS estimates for this year, which will surely get revised downwards over the next couple of days as analysts factor in the weaker-than-expected results for fiscal Q1 2023 into their models. EPS downward revisions thus seem likely, which will result in an even higher valuation, all else equal. In short, we have a situation where Apple's consumer-focused business model is facing major headwinds. And yet, at the same time, shares are historically pricy. I do believe this does not make for an attractive combination -- pressure on Apple's share price in the foreseeable future would not be too surprising. Of course, if the market rallies, e.g., due to Fed pivot hopes, Apple would most likely climb as well. But if that does not happen, Apple is at risk of performing badly, I believe. Final Thoughts Apple Inc. is not a bad company at all -- I am a user of some of its products and have been a shareholder in the past. But it is a company with vulnerabilities, as the consumer-facing business of selling discretionary goods is vulnerable to an economic downturn, showcased by the rather bad business growth performance Apple has shown for the most recent quarter. This holds true in absolute terms, and also on a relative basis versus other big tech names. Since Apple Inc. is trading at a pricey valuation while the macro environment is moving against the company, I believe Apple is not an attractive investment at current prices. AAPL is a quality stock, but a too-expensive one that will face headwinds in the current adverse macro environment. The double miss on Apple Inc.'s fiscal Q1 earnings hurts -- the market reaction has, unsurprisingly, not been positive. Is This an Income Stream Which Induces Fear? The primary goal of the Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio is to produce an overall yield in the 7% - 10% range. We accomplish this by combining several different income streams to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout. The portfolio's price can fluctuate, but the income stream remains consistent. Start your free two-week trial today! This article was written by If you want to reach out, you can send a direct message here on Seeking Alpha, or an email to jonathandavidweber@gmail.com. Disclosure: I work together with Darren McCammon on his Marketplace Service Cash Flow Club. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of GOOG, META, MSFT either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body. Comments (116) My average is so low with AAPL a downturn only adds to my position. Keep up the good work. A major “wide moat” competitive advantage for Apple is that the product features and functions listed by @Tig operate within a highly integrated, synchronized, and secure environment. Mac Pro Mac Studio AirTag AirPods HomePod…in addition to Apple's world-leading M-series processors. The AirPods lines alone comprise a major product category. Analysts have been pretty positive as they held their price targets or even increased them.So yes, they had a bad quarter but held up pretty well. And they are not slashing jobs like virtually all tech which means management has been disciplined while others not so much. Alphabet -34% Amazon -98.1% Microsoft -12.5%Apple -13.4%Were you just hoping we wouldn't notice, Mr Weber? These are good signs 🙂

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Apple Misses Earnings, I'm Staying In

Apple just released its first quarter earnings and missed expectations on revenue as well as on earnings per share (EPS). Click here to read my analysis.

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Apple Misses Earnings, I'm Staying In Summary - Apple just released its earnings and missed expectations. - The release missed expectations on revenue as well as on earnings per share ("EPS"). - Prior to the release, Tim Cook took a voluntary pay cut, leading many to speculate that the release would be bad. - The release confirmed rumors to be true. - I personally plan to keep holding Apple stock, as I think a turnaround is likely, but I'm reducing my rating to 'hold' as short-term investors could get burned here. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) just released its fiscal first quarter earnings and missed on both the top and bottom lines. The release came in $4 billion short on revenue and $0.07 short on earnings per share. On the operational front, Apple revealed that major supply constraints (likely Chinese factory closures) held back its sales. Overall it was a mixed quarter. There was a lot of speculation about what Apple would reveal prior to its earnings release. Tim Cook took a 40% pay cut before the release came out, leading to speculation that the company would miss estimates. With the release out, we now know that Apple did indeed miss. However, there were some bright spots in the report, including continued positive earnings growth in services. The revenue picture was undeniably bad, mainly due to currency impacts. I have been bullish on Apple stock for most of the last 12 months. The stock got expensive during the 2021 tech bubble, but it came down quite a bit this year. At today’s prices, it is not exactly cheap but, as I will show in later sections, has an economic moat that justifies a premium price. Apple’s Q1 release has not changed my opinion on the stock. As usual, the company is highly profitable, seeing modest revenue growth, and continues growing its services business. For these reasons I remain personally bullish on AAPL. However, I’m reducing my rating to ‘hold,’ mainly due to the likelihood that short-term oriented investors could lose money on it in the aftermath of the Q1 earnings. Earnings Recap In its most recent earnings release, Apple delivered lukewarm results. Some highlight metrics included: $117 billion in revenue, down 5% (about flat on a constant currency basis). $36 billion in operating income (“EBIT”), down 13%. $29.9 in net income, down 12.7%. $1.88 in diluted EPS, down 10.5%. Additionally, Apple posted the following segment results: iPhone: $65.7 billion, down 8.2%. Wearables: $13.4 billion, down 8.2%. Services: $20.7 billion, up 6.2%. It was a pretty lukewarm quarter. Services were a bright spot, but apart from that, it was misses all around. If you’re a short-term trader, I definitely would not go buying Apple calls hoping for a jump tomorrow. I’d have to imagine the short-term reaction to this release will be negative. However, I remain optimistic about Apple in the long term, for reasons I’ll outline below. Competitive Landscape One of the reasons why I was bullish on Apple heading into its first quarter earnings release is because the company has a strong competitive position. I’ve covered this topic extensively in past articles, but to summarize, Apple has: The strongest brand in the world as measured by leading several marketing research firms. #1 market share in tablets and smart watches. #2 market share in mobile operating systems by installations. #1 market share in mobile operating systems by revenue. How does Apple manage to enjoy such a dominant market position in so many different verticals? It comes down to the first bullet point: brand strength. Apple’s brand is associated with premium quality and creativity. As a result, many people think that Apple products are “cool.” The company enjoys a good reputation with Gen Z consumers, 83% of whom own iPhones. That latter point bodes well for the future, because consumption habits formed young tend to last. Another competitive advantage Apple has is an interconnected ecosystem. There are various software tie-ins that connect MacBooks, iPhones, iPads and Apple Watches together. For example, if you use Apple Watch to track your heart rate, the data is immediately available in Apple fitness on your iPhone. This interconnectedness incentivizes buying multiple Apple products instead of just one. The only other company that does this is Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), which technically has an ecosystem; however, not many people use the Pixelbook, so one component of the “Google ecosystem” is missing in practice. This leaves Apple mostly unchallenged as a tech ecosystem company. Valuation Having looked at Apple’s most recent earnings release and its long-term competitive position, we can now turn to its valuation. At today’s prices, prior to the Q4 earnings release, Apple traded at: 23.8 times earnings. 5.98 times sales. 45 times book value. 18.8 times operating cash flow. The book value multiple might look frighteningly high, but remember that Apple is far from a future bankruptcy case where you’re thinking about its value in liquidation. It’s very much a going concern. Apart from that, Apple’s multiples were low prior to the Q4 release. Speaking of which: since the Q4 release showed declines, the multiples above are now higher using today’s closing price of $150 as the “P.” So, we might expect the stock to fall tomorrow, unless investors’ approach to valuation fundamentally changes. As for free cash flow: In the three quarters prior to today’s release, Apple had $1.30, $1.29 and $1.58 in free cash flow per share. Those amounts sum to $4.17. Q4’s cash flow came in at $34 billion, which is $2.09 per share. So we’ve got $6.26 in 12 month cash flows per share. Assuming no future growth, the terminal value estimates here are: $179 at the current 10 year treasury yield of 3.5%. $78.25 at an 8% discount rate (treasury yield plus a large risk premium). So, we get a pretty wide range of estimates here. Averaging them out, we get the sense that Apple is fairly valued. It therefore makes sense to pay attention to interest rates when investing in a stock like AAPL. Just slightly higher interest rates would make an investment in this stock a lot less sensible. Risks and Challenges As we’ve seen, Apple is a high quality company with a strong competitive position that’s putting out so-so earnings. It looks like a good stock. Indeed, for me it is, as I continue holding my AAPL shares. Nevertheless, there are many risks and challenges for investors to look out for, including: Slowing growth. Apple is simply so big at this point that it’s hard to imagine really high growth will continue indefinitely. There’s a concept in economics called “diminishing marginal returns” which says that at some point extra investment ceases to increase marginal profit. Additionally, simple math says that it takes more dollar growth to achieve a given amount of percentage growth, after a certain amount of dollar growth has already occurred. As we saw in the first quarter release, AAPL’s growth even on a constant currency basis was near 0%. That’s to be expected given its size plus the slowing economic climate. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, and one of the biggest by revenue. So, truly rapid price appreciation from this point onward is unlikely. The supply chain. Apple’s single biggest supplier, Foxconn, is located in China, and U.S./China relations are icy right now. The two countries strongly disagree on the status of Taiwan. China wants Taiwan to become part of itself, America wants Taiwan to remain quasi-independent like it is now. Sometimes this dispute leads to real military concerns. For example, just Yesterday, Taiwan scrambled its fighter jets after China allegedly crossed into its territorial waters. Were the Taiwan issues to spill over into all-out war, it would be hard to imagine the U.S. simply allowing Apple’s open trade with China to continue unimpeded. So, geopolitical tensions with China are a risk for Apple. Anti-trust. Anti-trust lawsuits have been a concern for Apple for much of its history. As mentioned in the section on competitive dynamics, the company has high market shares in several verticals. This is in principle a good thing, but it does increase anti-trust risk. Current FTC Chair Lina Khan is known to be an anti-trust hawk. She has launched numerous actions against Meta Platforms, and has strongly criticized Amazon (AMZN). Apple is not in the crosshairs just yet, but there’s nothing to say it can’t find itself in them. The Bottom Line The bottom line about Apple’s Q1 release is that it just confirmed what investors have always known about the company: That it’s a highly profitable organization with great brand loyalty and a moderate level of growth. At this point, it would be unwise to expect Apple to keep up its past rates of growth and returns going forward. As Warren Buffett likes to say, “size is the anchor of performance.” However, the company is at least profitable, which stands out by the standards of tech companies in 2023. Overall, I’m quite happy holding Apple stock. This article was written by Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AAPL, GOOG either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body. Comments (78) -- "@Immer if you're cutting apple losses, that means you overpaid." -- **Actually, it means he wasn't a long-term investor. My average AAPL cost basis is under $12/share and yours is probably less. same

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Apple Misses Its Throwaway Quarter

Apple Inc. missed on top and bottom lines for fiscal Q1 2023. Production issues and currency headwinds were known. Click here for my full analysis of AAPL earnings.

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Apple Misses Its Throwaway Quarter Summary - Apple Inc. misses on top and bottom lines. - Production issues and currency headwinds were known. - Numbers could have been much worse. After the bell on Thursday, we received fiscal first quarter results from technology giant Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL). For months now, we've been talking about weak results coming in as the company's iPhone production was severely impacted in China due to the Coronavirus. In the end, the fiscal Q1 results looked quite bad when you see the headlines, but I don't see this as a reason for investors to panic. Back in December, I detailed how street analysts were calling for Apple revenues to decline in the holiday quarter. This was despite the company having 14 weeks in the fiscal period due to how the calendar fell, providing extra sales time compared to the year ago period. In the chart below, you can see how Street estimates kept coming down over time. Worries kept increasing recently because of two items. First, the U.S. dollar had strengthened quite a bit over its year ago levels, adding a headwind to Apple's overall results. The greenback has since weakened, but much of that came after the quarter ended. This should shift to a tailwind as we move throughout 2023 if the dollar stays where it currently is. The major problem for Apple, though, in the December period was the shutdown at Foxconn's iPhone plant in Zhengzhou, China. Production was only at about 20% of normal at the end of November, according to one analyst report I previously discussed, and got back to around 30% by mid-December. When you are selling smartphones that cost $800 and up, even losing a few million units in the quarter can mean billion in revenues. Overall, here's how Apple's results looked against the prior two fiscal Q1 periods. The year-ago change for percentage categories is the actual percentage change, not the rate of change as for revenue, EPS categories, etc. Apple missed the average street estimate for Q1 by about $4.5 billion. Well, the iPhone itself was down $5.85 billion over the year-ago period. The company also missed when it came to the Mac, but that miss was about the same size of the beat that the iPad had, so those two basically cancelled each other out. Wearables and other revenues were also a little light, but some of that might be attributable to Apple not getting as many add-ons with iPhone sales being down. The Services segment saw slowing growth, but actually beat Street estimates. Overall, gross margins declined, but were basically in-line with street estimates. Margins had soared in recent years, and there certainly were a number of inflationary pressures out there. Losing a few million very profitable iPhone sales easily hurts your margin profile. The bottom line missed by 7 cents, but I don't think that was too bad when you consider how bad the overall revenue miss was, especially given the iPhone number. We have to remember here that Apple is not going out of business anytime soon. The company saw over $30 billion of free cash flow in the quarter. While that's down a bit from last year's $44 billion, some of it was the timing of working capital items, along with the decline in net income. Nearly $20 billion was spent on share repurchases, as management continues the greatest capital return plan in corporate history. Going into the report, the average price target on the street was $168. Even if that comes down $5 to $10, you're still talking about decent upside from the $145 level seen in the after-hours session. With production facilities back online, and China reopening in a big way, Apple's sales should do better as we work through this year. On the conference call, management stated that Q2 should see a better growth profile. I also think the 2023 iPhone cycle will be a lot more impressive because last year's two entry level models didn't get chip upgrades as Apple further differentiated the product line. In the end, Apple Inc. missed street estimates, but I don't see this as a big surprise. We knew the dollar was strong, and we knew that the major iPhone production plant was significantly impacted during the quarter. Apple still managed to do over $117 billion in revenues and post a $30 billion profit, and yet investors seem to be disappointed. The business environment should improve a little as we move through 2023, especially in China, and Apple Inc. management is already talking about brighter days, so AAPL stock remains a good long-term hold in my opinion. This article was written by Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Investors are always reminded that before making any investment, you should do your own proper due diligence on any name directly or indirectly mentioned in this article. Investors should also consider seeking advice from a broker or financial adviser before making any investment decisions. Any material in this article should be considered general information, and not relied on as a formal investment recommendation. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body. Comments (20)

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Apple FQ1 2023: More Gloom And Doom Awaits

Apple Inc. F1Q23 revenue staged a miss by a whopping $4.5 billion, underscoring the worsening burdens on the tech giant. Click for more analysis of AAPL earnings.

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Apple FQ1 2023: More Gloom And Doom Awaits Summary - Apple Inc. F1Q23 revenue staged a rare miss by a whopping $4.5 billion, underscoring the worsening burden of not only supply constraints but also deteriorating consumer spending. - Earnings also came in under consensus expectations, adding to investors' subdued confidence in the stock amid this year's rally given the lack of margin preservation initiatives taken by Apple. - While Apple may benefit from some partially offsetting tailwinds still up its sleeves this quarter, things are likely to deteriorate in tandem with continued consumer weakness as macro challenges evolve. - Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Livy Investment Research. Learn More » Apple Inc.’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) fiscal first quarter results suggest a slump. They were in line with the supply-constrained holiday shopping season for its best-selling premium iPhones, and a deteriorating consumer backdrop. The tech giant reported revenue of more than $117 billion, underperforming consensus estimates of $122 billion; earnings rolled in at $1.88 per share, also missing consensus estimates slightly by $0.07. What mattered more for investors, though, was management’s commentary on the near-term outlook, given mixed data on where mounting macroeconomic uncertainties from last year might be headed. In the previous quarter, Apple CFO Luca Maestri had already warned of headwinds in the macroeconomic environment that would continue to impact the company’s consumer-centric business heading into the new year, in addition to persistent FX challenges as well as a tough PY comp that had benefitted from the launch of new MacBook Pros fitted with the M1 chips. And things have likely remained largely consistent with management’s previous conservatism. Looking ahead, Apple’s near-term demand environment remains blighted by the weakening consumer, though few moderate tailwinds have surfaced, including a weakening dollar as the pace of monetary policy tightening slows, and a product upgrade cycle that could boost sales and complement a softer PY comp later in the year. But on a net basis, growth is likely expected to decelerate further and remain subdued in much more moderate levels from the pandemic era boom. While a consistent revenue mix shift to the higher-margin services segment should continue to reinforce the tech giant’s bottom line, the company likely faces near-term cost inefficiencies stemming from ongoing investments into new technology (e.g., in-house silicon; mixed reality headsets) as well as the gradual diversification of its supply chain. The lack of significant cost-optimizing efforts observed from the tech giant so far – other than axing the size of CEO Tim Cook’s compensation package and staying cautious on hiring new talent – paired with the stock’s valuation premium still makes it less appealing to investors that have largely turned risk-on towards those that have actively sought to bolster the bottom-line through reduction in forces (“RIFs”) and project cancellations without materially compromising performance. Admittedly, it has been a phenomenal couple of quarters for Apple, being the most exposed to the weakening consumer, yet also the most resilient among peers, underscoring the strength of its ecosystem and commanding installed base. However, the anticipated continuation of consumer weakness over the coming months will remain an overhang on both of Apple’s products and services segments, despite growing evidence that inflation pressures are back on track down to the Fed’s target 2% range and supportive of easing financial conditions. Essentially, the after-effect of the Fed’s aggressive inflation-reining campaign over the past year that is likely to play out with further deterioration in the consumer over coming months will likely cap Apple’s near-term sales. This effectively elevates demand risks facing the company, creating a tough operating backdrop for the tech giant that could further expose the stock’s vulnerability to looming macroeconomic uncertainties that remain on the horizon. Fading Resilience Among the Slowing Consumer While recent economic data continues to support that peak inflation is now behind us and onto a consistent path back towards the Fed’s target 2% range, which has markets speculating that the Fed’s recent acknowledgement that inflation has showed “a welcome reduction” and decision to slow the pace of rate hikes further could be supportive of a pivot before the end of the year, consumer spending is likely to deteriorate further as aggressive monetary policy tightening prescribed over the past year continues to work through the economy. Over the past year, we have taken forceful actions to tighten the stance of monetary policy. We have covered a lot of ground, and the full effects of our rapid tightening so far are yet to be felt. Source: Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference Opening Statement February 1, 2023. And Fed Chair Powell could be right on this. Household savings have rapidly declined towards a record-low rate in the low 2% range, while consumer debt continues to climb towards new heights. The combination has economists expecting an economic contraction in the second and third quarters of the current year at an annualized rate of -0.6% and -0.3%, respectively, as the simultaneous burden of lingering inflation and surging interest rates cool consumption further. And the Fed’s call-out on the labor market as being still “extremely tight” could very well mean that borrowing costs will stay elevated for some time, and weigh further on consumer spending within the foreseeable future. iPhone For the iPhone, while the supply constrained environment experienced over the holiday shopping season due to COVID disruptions at its key manufacturing hub in Zhengzhou, China have recovered, continued consumer weakness paired with the seasonal March-quarter slowdown likely may mean elevated demand risks ahead. This is corroborated by the already weaker take-rates on the standard iPhone 14 models so far, which had far less upgrades from its predecessor compared with the premium Pro line-up. During the December quarter, iPhone sales neared $66 billion (-8% y/y), inclusive of prevalent FX headwinds during the period, missing already guided down consensus estimates of $67.9 billion (-5% y/y). The muted results are also consistent with the global slump in smartphone sales to levels never seen before – global December quarter smartphone shipments fell by more than 18% y/y to “a little over 300 million units,” with all of the industry leaders suffering “double-digit setbacks” during the period. Yet, there are a couple of partially offsetting tailwinds in Apple’s favor still, which it could potentially take advantage of to maintain resilience among the deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop. As mentioned in the earlier section, demand for the premium iPhone 14 Pro line-up has largely held up better than the standard models, causing the previous supply-constrained environment observed in the December quarter to have pushed some of the sales into the current period, which could potentially offset seasonal March-quarter weakness. The recovering Chinese economy coming out of a years-long COVID Zero approach is also likely to drive a rebound in demand from the region after it recorded smartphone shipments in CY/2022 that dipped below 300 million units for the first time in 10 years. And Apple appears to have stayed in the forefront of this potential tailwind, surfacing as the biggest smartphone seller in the country for the first time during the December quarter, commanding close to a 24% share of the market. Despite still having incurred shipment declines, they were “smaller than those of domestic rivals like Vivo, Oppo and Xiaomi,” with the iPhone “becoming the [second best-selling smartphone] in the country on an annualized basis for the first time.” With Beijing prioritizing economic growth this year, a gradual reopening and recovery could unleash $1.8 trillion in household savings accumulated over the past two years, and drive strong tailwinds in one of the iPhone segment’s core sales regions. Mac Meanwhile, the global PC slump continues to worsen, with constituents across the supply chain warning of further deterioration as consumer spending weakens. Specifically, global PC shipments accelerated a decline to -28.5% in the fourth quarter from -19.5% in the third quarter, -12.6% in the second quarter, and -6.8% in the first quarter; full-year 2022 PC shipments dropped 16.2% y/y, the steepest level from data dating back to the mid-1990s, underscoring the weight of worsening consumer weakness. Yet, strangely, Apple has climbed on top over the same timespan while rival PC makers continue to reel from an upended industry. Although Mac sales declined substantially in the December quarter to $7.7 billion (-29% y/y), which was in line with management’s previous guidance given the benefit of the M1-powered MacBook Pro launched during the same period in 2021, the line-up of personal workstations had steadily climbed to a position of leading market share over the past year. Although Apple remains in fourth place in terms of global workstation sales, rival PC makers have ceded a meaningful share of their respective markets to Macs over the past year. Specifically, Apple commanded more than 17% of PC sales in the U.S. during the December quarter, while its global market share sits steadily at more than 13%, up from 8% in 2021. The segment likely benefits from the continued refresh of the Mac line-up with in-house designed silicon, which boasts impressive improvements in performance. And the early-month kick-off of an upgraded MacBook Pro and Mac mini, fitted with the latest M2-series silicon, is likely to bolster demand stemming from potential upgrades and switches, and offset some of the near-term macro challenges. Specifically, the latest Mac mini update marks the first in two years, transitioning from the previous Intel chips to the most recent Apple-developed M2-series silicon that boasts significantly better performance and power efficiency: Mac mini with M2 and M2 Pro delivers faster performance, even more unified memory, and advanced connectivity, including support for up to two displays on the M2 model, and up to three displays on the M2 Pro model…Compared to the previous-generation Mac mini, M2 and M2 Pro bring a faster next-generation CPU and GPU, much higher memory bandwidth, and a more powerful media engine to Mac mini, delivering extraordinary performance and industry-leading power efficiency. Source: apple.com. The update is likely to incentivize a greater volume of upgrades – and potentially switches – given the device’s outperformance against rival workstations currently available in the market, and extend Apple’s reputation as a share gainer despite the weak industry backdrop. The price drop, from $699 for the previous version to now $599 for the upgraded version, will likely be another plus in bolstering demand. Meanwhile, the 14” and 16” MacBook Pros will also graduate to the M2 Pro and M2 Max chips, boasting up to double the performance for graphics, and significant speed, storage, and battery life improvements. The new line-up of the premium laptops will also feature “Wi-Fi 6E” to facilitate faster wireless connectivity, as well as “Bluetooth 5.3” to enable further improvements to latency. As mentioned in several of our previous coverages on the stock, Apple’s transition of its workstation line-up to in-house silicon has been favorable in attracting demand from the enterprise sector as well, given significant improvements to performance that is now aiding the brand’s growing presence in an environment that has long been dominated by PCs running on Windows and other operating systems. Despite growing uncertainty on enterprise IT budgets due to the looming risks of an economic downturn, added commercial demand continues to be welcomed, nonetheless, as Apple’s Mac segment expands beyond consumer end-markets to penetrate a greater TAM. Services As discussed in our previous coverage on the stock, Apple’s services segment continues to play a critical role in expanding monetization of the company’s sprawling installed base. The segment’s higher-margin sales has also been key to supporting bottom-line resilience for Apple, despite rising input costs over the past year. Despite the challenging consumer backdrop, services sales totaled $20.8 billion in the December quarter, up more than 6% y/y and setting an “all-time revenue record” for the segment. This represents the sole bright spot that actually outperformed consensus estimates of $20.67 billion (+5.9% y/y) as well. In addition to App Store sales, which likely represents the “lion’s share” of the segment’s revenues, Apple’s video streaming and advertising businesses are also becoming increasingly bullish. For instance, the recent price hike implemented for Apple TV+ subscriptions from $4.99 to $6.99 remains a competitive offering against rivals that offer similar ad-free on-demand content viewing but at a much steeper price (especially after a slew of similar price hikes). This is further corroborated by positive feedback from recent sentiment checks for streaming services. Specifically, video streaming now commands the bulk of TV view time, exceeding 38%. And Apple is gradually gaining prominence within the increasingly saturated landscape, with its market share likely rising beyond 6% in recent years, thanks to a slew of “award-winning and broadly acclaimed” content. Based on a recent sentiment check conducted by RBC Capital Markets on 500 consumers across the U.S., about a quarter are already signed up on Apple TV+, with demand most prominent in the 18-29 age group. Apple’s streaming platform also received the highest ranking (26%) among respondents regarding the subscription they are most likely to add in 2023, outpacing rival services including Disney’s Hulu and Disney+ (DIS), as well as Amazon’s Prime Video (AMZN) and Netflix (NFLX). And, likely thanks to Apple TV+’s competitive pricing, most current users of the service surveyed indicated a preference for an ad-free subscription (42%) versus an ad-supported subscription (16%), while the majority of users on other streaming platforms indicated their preference would depend on pricing. While the unit is likely unprofitable still – as most streaming services are, with the exception of Netflix – Apple’s continued investment into growing its content library, and inadvertently, subscriber reach, remains critical to supporting other verticals of its services segment, such as its other profit-generating branded apps as well as advertising. For instance, the Apple One bundle introduced in fiscal 2021, which includes Apple TV+, has been a key driver of Apple’s service subscription volumes in recent years. The offering, which extends a bundle discount for up to six service subscriptions, is currently priced between $14.95 to $32.95 a month, depending on the number of subscribers and services selected. It has been a key feature in bolstering services revenue growth and helping the company preserve its margins by mitigating risks of churn and optimizing monetization across its devices installed base. Meanwhile, on advertising, Apple TV+’s growing reach also sets up future opportunities to penetrate the AVOD industry while also boosting pricing on its currently ad-free SVOD offering to bolster the business’ margins. Specifically, AVOD is not only a highly demand offering among users of video streaming platforms, but it is also poised to become the fastest growing digital ad distribution channel over the coming years. Boosting Apple TV+’s reach over the longer-term will likely be a key driver of Apple’s expansion of its footprint in the higher-margin digital advertising medium, in which it is currently estimated to generate an annual sales run rate of about $4 billion. Despite the advertising industry’s inherent sensitivity to macroeconomic challenges, connected TV (“CTV”) ads will continue to benefit from accelerated demand within both the near and longer term as a result of the format’s growing reach…Specifically, CTV market share erosion against linear TV is expected to accelerate within the foreseeable future, expanding from 1.7% share of combined TV ad spend in 2015, to 21.1% by 2027. This would be categorized by a CTV ads sales CAGR of 13.5% between 2021 to 2027, outpacing the global ad spend CAGR of 5.7% over the same period. Source: “Netflix: Ending Q4 With A ‘Tudum’ In Sales And Subscriptions. But Is It Enough? While Apple’s partial resilience across its core products and services categories will likely stay within the foreseeable future, helped by a mix of shifting consumer preference, timing of supply availability, and new product launches that exhibit an innovative advantage over rival offerings, sales will remain subdued on a net basis due to rapid deterioration in its core consumer end-markets. Although said resilience, alongside its robust cash flows, have helped the stock weather the aggressive market rout over the past year, it will likely be insufficient to maintain investors’ confidence over the coming months as fears of consumer weakness take precedence, which is corroborated by the stock’s post-earnings slump this evening (-4.2% at the time of writing). Specifically, Apple’s elevated exposure to the slowing consumer adds to growing demand risks at Apple, and further the stock’s vulnerability to market volatility as the economy continues to work out uncertainties spanning persistent inflation, surging rates, an uncertain China recovery, and a looming global recession, and geopolitical tensions. While Apple Inc.'s underlying business remains relatively resilient and continues to generate robust cash flows, the macro set-up is deviating further from its advantage, making AAPL stock increasingly vulnerable to still-fragile market sentiment and encouraging a “wait and see” stance for the shares. Thank you for reading my analysis. If you are interested in interacting with me directly in chat, more research content and tools designed for growth investing, and joining a community of like-minded investors, please take a moment to review my Marketplace service Livy Investment Research. Our service's key offerings include: - A subscription to our weekly tech and market news recap - Full access to our portfolio of research coverage and complementary editing-enabled financial models - A compilation of growth-focused industry primers and peer comps Feel free to check it out risk-free through the two-week free trial. I hope to see you there! This article was written by Boutique investment research shop providing professional coverage on disruptive thematic equities. Our analysis provides a deep dive on growth drivers present in the secular market to identify outperforming investments. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body. Comments (25)

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Apple earnings show steepest sales decline in more than 6 years

Apple Inc.'s business came under pressure in the holiday quarter, as the company posted its largest revenue decline in more than six years.

MarketWatch

Apple Inc.’s business came under pressure in the holiday quarter, as the company posted its largest revenue decline in more than six years amid underwhelming sales of iPhones, Macs and wearables. Apple’s AAPL, Chief Executive Tim Cook said on Apple’s earnings call that he believes the company would have shown iPhone sales growth in the quarter had it not been for the supply constraints. At the same time, he noted that it’s “very hard” to estimate the company’s ability to recapture lost sales, “because you have to know exactly what would’ve happened.” Apple shares were down 3.4% in premarket trading Friday, after having been down as much as 5.6% in after-hours trading Thursday. After reporting a quarterly revenue record for Macs in the September quarter, Apple fell way short of those heights in the December quarter with its Thursday afternoon report, and the company missed expectations by a wide margin. Mac sales declined to $7.7 billion from $10.9 billion a year earlier, while analysts had been looking for $9.4 billion. Those big misses helped drive total revenue lower on the year and fueled a miss on the top line, despite a sizable beat in the iPad category. Overall revenue declined to $117.2 billion from $123.9 billion a year ago, while analysts were looking for $121.4 billion. Dating back to its report for the December 2017 quarter, Apple has only missed revenue expectations twice, according to FactSet, including one time when the company issued a formal warning ahead of its official results. The smartphone giant’s sales decline of 5.48% was its steepest year-over-year fall since the September quarter of 2016, when sales slipped 8.12%, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Apple executives once again declined to provide a traditional financial forecast, though Chief Financial Officer Luca Maestri shared on the call that he expects Apple’s year-over-year revenue performance in the March quarter to be similar to what was seen in the December quarter. That would actually mark an acceleration of sorts, he said, since the December quarter benefited from an extra week. Within iPhones specifically, Maestri also anticipates that year-over-year revenue performance will accelerate. Apple’s profits fell as well in the latest period, as the company generated net income of $30.0 billion, or $1.88 a share, compared with $34.6 billion, or $2.10 a share, a year earlier. Analysts were modeling $1.94 in earnings per share. Maestri called out “significant foreign-exchange headwinds, supply constraints on iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max and a challenging macroeconomic environment” in discussing the company’s smartphone performance. Mac growth was negatively impacted by economic conditions, currency pressures and tough comparisons to a year before. Within its iPad segment, Apple showed sharp growth. Revenue increased to $9.4 billion from $7.3 billion a year earlier. The FactSet consensus was for $7.8 billion. Maestri noted that the iPad business benefited from the launch of new iPads during the quarter as well as comparisons to a year-earlier period in which Apple faced supply constraints. Revenue for wearables, home and accessories came in at $13.5 billion, down from $14.7 billion a year before and far below the $15.3 billion that analysts were modeling. Services revenue rose to $20.8 billion from $19.5 billion and beat the FactSet consensus, which was for $20.4 billion. Shares of Apple have fallen 14.2% over the past 12 months, though they’re up 16.1% to start 2023. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,

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Sen. Michael Bennet asks Apple, Google, to remove TikTok from app stores

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This page has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved or endorsed by the companies represented herein. Each of the company logos represented herein are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation; Dow Jones & Company; Nasdaq, Inc.; Forbes Media, LLC; Investor's Business Daily, Inc.; and Morningstar, Inc. Copyright 2023 Zacks Investment Research | 10 S Riverside Plaza Suite #1600 | Chicago, IL 60606 At the center of everything we do is a strong commitment to independent research and sharing its profitable discoveries with investors. This dedication to giving investors a trading advantage led to the creation of our proven Zacks Rank stock-rating system. Since 1988 it has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.17% per year. These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 15, 2023. Zacks Rank stock-rating system returns are computed monthly based on the beginning of the month and end of the month Zacks Rank stock prices plus any dividends received during that particular month. A simple, equally-weighted average return of all Zacks Rank stocks is calculated to determine the monthly return. The monthly returns are then compounded to arrive at the annual return. Only Zacks Rank stocks included in Zacks hypothetical portfolios at the beginning of each month are included in the return calculations. Zacks Ranks stocks can, and often do, change throughout the month. Certain Zacks Rank stocks for which no month-end price was available, pricing information was not collected, or for certain other reasons have been excluded from these return calculations. Visit Performance Disclosure for information about the performance numbers displayed above. Visit www.zacksdata.com to get our data and content for your mobile app or website. Real time prices by BATS. Delayed quotes by FIS. NYSE and AMEX data is at least 20 minutes delayed. NASDAQ data is at least 15 minutes delayed. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

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Apple (AAPL) Shares Cross Above 200 DMA

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This page has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved or endorsed by the companies represented herein. Each of the company logos represented herein are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation; Dow Jones & Company; Nasdaq, Inc.; Forbes Media, LLC; Investor's Business Daily, Inc.; and Morningstar, Inc. Copyright 2023 Zacks Investment Research | 10 S Riverside Plaza Suite #1600 | Chicago, IL 60606 At the center of everything we do is a strong commitment to independent research and sharing its profitable discoveries with investors. This dedication to giving investors a trading advantage led to the creation of our proven Zacks Rank stock-rating system. Since 1988 it has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.17% per year. These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 15, 2023. Zacks Rank stock-rating system returns are computed monthly based on the beginning of the month and end of the month Zacks Rank stock prices plus any dividends received during that particular month. A simple, equally-weighted average return of all Zacks Rank stocks is calculated to determine the monthly return. The monthly returns are then compounded to arrive at the annual return. Only Zacks Rank stocks included in Zacks hypothetical portfolios at the beginning of each month are included in the return calculations. Zacks Ranks stocks can, and often do, change throughout the month. Certain Zacks Rank stocks for which no month-end price was available, pricing information was not collected, or for certain other reasons have been excluded from these return calculations. Visit Performance Disclosure for information about the performance numbers displayed above. Visit www.zacksdata.com to get our data and content for your mobile app or website. Real time prices by BATS. Delayed quotes by FIS. NYSE and AMEX data is at least 20 minutes delayed. NASDAQ data is at least 15 minutes delayed. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

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Notable companies reporting after market close

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This page has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved or endorsed by the companies represented herein. Each of the company logos represented herein are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation; Dow Jones & Company; Nasdaq, Inc.; Forbes Media, LLC; Investor's Business Daily, Inc.; and Morningstar, Inc. Copyright 2023 Zacks Investment Research | 10 S Riverside Plaza Suite #1600 | Chicago, IL 60606 At the center of everything we do is a strong commitment to independent research and sharing its profitable discoveries with investors. This dedication to giving investors a trading advantage led to the creation of our proven Zacks Rank stock-rating system. Since 1988 it has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.17% per year. These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 15, 2023. Zacks Rank stock-rating system returns are computed monthly based on the beginning of the month and end of the month Zacks Rank stock prices plus any dividends received during that particular month. A simple, equally-weighted average return of all Zacks Rank stocks is calculated to determine the monthly return. The monthly returns are then compounded to arrive at the annual return. Only Zacks Rank stocks included in Zacks hypothetical portfolios at the beginning of each month are included in the return calculations. Zacks Ranks stocks can, and often do, change throughout the month. Certain Zacks Rank stocks for which no month-end price was available, pricing information was not collected, or for certain other reasons have been excluded from these return calculations. Visit Performance Disclosure for information about the performance numbers displayed above. Visit www.zacksdata.com to get our data and content for your mobile app or website. Real time prices by BATS. Delayed quotes by FIS. NYSE and AMEX data is at least 20 minutes delayed. NASDAQ data is at least 15 minutes delayed. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

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What Wall Street is saying about Apple ahead of earnings

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This page has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved or endorsed by the companies represented herein. Each of the company logos represented herein are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation; Dow Jones & Company; Nasdaq, Inc.; Forbes Media, LLC; Investor's Business Daily, Inc.; and Morningstar, Inc. Copyright 2023 Zacks Investment Research | 10 S Riverside Plaza Suite #1600 | Chicago, IL 60606 At the center of everything we do is a strong commitment to independent research and sharing its profitable discoveries with investors. This dedication to giving investors a trading advantage led to the creation of our proven Zacks Rank stock-rating system. Since 1988 it has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.17% per year. These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 15, 2023. Zacks Rank stock-rating system returns are computed monthly based on the beginning of the month and end of the month Zacks Rank stock prices plus any dividends received during that particular month. A simple, equally-weighted average return of all Zacks Rank stocks is calculated to determine the monthly return. The monthly returns are then compounded to arrive at the annual return. Only Zacks Rank stocks included in Zacks hypothetical portfolios at the beginning of each month are included in the return calculations. Zacks Ranks stocks can, and often do, change throughout the month. Certain Zacks Rank stocks for which no month-end price was available, pricing information was not collected, or for certain other reasons have been excluded from these return calculations. Visit Performance Disclosure for information about the performance numbers displayed above. Visit www.zacksdata.com to get our data and content for your mobile app or website. Real time prices by BATS. Delayed quotes by FIS. NYSE and AMEX data is at least 20 minutes delayed. NASDAQ data is at least 15 minutes delayed. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

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Apple price target cut to `Street low` $110 at Lynx

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This page has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved or endorsed by the companies represented herein. Each of the company logos represented herein are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation; Dow Jones & Company; Nasdaq, Inc.; Forbes Media, LLC; Investor's Business Daily, Inc.; and Morningstar, Inc. Copyright 2023 Zacks Investment Research | 10 S Riverside Plaza Suite #1600 | Chicago, IL 60606 At the center of everything we do is a strong commitment to independent research and sharing its profitable discoveries with investors. This dedication to giving investors a trading advantage led to the creation of our proven Zacks Rank stock-rating system. Since 1988 it has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.17% per year. These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 15, 2023. Zacks Rank stock-rating system returns are computed monthly based on the beginning of the month and end of the month Zacks Rank stock prices plus any dividends received during that particular month. A simple, equally-weighted average return of all Zacks Rank stocks is calculated to determine the monthly return. The monthly returns are then compounded to arrive at the annual return. Only Zacks Rank stocks included in Zacks hypothetical portfolios at the beginning of each month are included in the return calculations. Zacks Ranks stocks can, and often do, change throughout the month. Certain Zacks Rank stocks for which no month-end price was available, pricing information was not collected, or for certain other reasons have been excluded from these return calculations. Visit Performance Disclosure for information about the performance numbers displayed above. Visit www.zacksdata.com to get our data and content for your mobile app or website. Real time prices by BATS. Delayed quotes by FIS. NYSE and AMEX data is at least 20 minutes delayed. NASDAQ data is at least 15 minutes delayed. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

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What Wall Street is saying about Alphabet ahead of earnings

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This page has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved or endorsed by the companies represented herein. Each of the company logos represented herein are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation; Dow Jones & Company; Nasdaq, Inc.; Forbes Media, LLC; Investor's Business Daily, Inc.; and Morningstar, Inc. Copyright 2023 Zacks Investment Research | 10 S Riverside Plaza Suite #1600 | Chicago, IL 60606 At the center of everything we do is a strong commitment to independent research and sharing its profitable discoveries with investors. This dedication to giving investors a trading advantage led to the creation of our proven Zacks Rank stock-rating system. Since 1988 it has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.17% per year. These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 15, 2023. Zacks Rank stock-rating system returns are computed monthly based on the beginning of the month and end of the month Zacks Rank stock prices plus any dividends received during that particular month. A simple, equally-weighted average return of all Zacks Rank stocks is calculated to determine the monthly return. The monthly returns are then compounded to arrive at the annual return. Only Zacks Rank stocks included in Zacks hypothetical portfolios at the beginning of each month are included in the return calculations. Zacks Ranks stocks can, and often do, change throughout the month. Certain Zacks Rank stocks for which no month-end price was available, pricing information was not collected, or for certain other reasons have been excluded from these return calculations. Visit Performance Disclosure for information about the performance numbers displayed above. Visit www.zacksdata.com to get our data and content for your mobile app or website. Real time prices by BATS. Delayed quotes by FIS. NYSE and AMEX data is at least 20 minutes delayed. NASDAQ data is at least 15 minutes delayed. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

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Alphabet: Don't Underestimate The Power Of Ads. Moving To Hold

Alphabet stock is down nearly 28% over the past year, underperforming the SPY Index. Click here to read why we're moving GOOG stock to a hold.

SeekingAlpha

Alphabet: Don't Underestimate The Power Of Ads. Moving To Hold Summary - We're moving Alphabet to a hold. - We believe the weaker ad spending and soft cloud demand amid current macro headwinds will pressure the company’s main revenue streams in the near term. - Alphabet stock is down nearly 28% over the past year, underperforming the SPY Index. We expect the company to continue underperforming expectations in 1H23. - We recommend investors wait for a better entry point as we expect the stock will drop further before it provides the once-in-a-decade buy opportunity. We're going against the current and moving Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) to hold. Our bearish sentiment on the stock is driven by our belief that Alphabet is not immune to the current economic downturn. We believe Alphabet's main revenue, advertising, and long-term growth driver, Google Cloud, will be under pressure in 1H23 due to macroeconomic headwinds. Alphabet underperformed the S&P 500 Index over the past year, dropping nearly 28%. We expect the stock to continue to dip in the near term as the macro headwinds of 2022 spill into this year. We're bullish on Alphabet in the long run but don't see any clear growth catalyst for the stock's recovery in the near term. We don't believe the once-in-a-decade entry point on Alphabet stock has appeared yet, and hence recommend investors wait on the sidelines for the downside to be factored into the stock. Between a rock and a hard place in advertising Alphabet derives most of its revenues from advertising, accounting for almost 79% of total revenues in 3Q22. Our bearish sentiment on the stock is based on our belief that Alphabet's ad revenue is taking a hit as global companies cut ad budgets due to inflationary pressures and rising interest rates. Alphabet has planted its ad revenue streams in multiple segments: YouTube ads roughly account for 10.2% of revenue, Google Network ads for 11.4%, and ads from Google Search & other properties for 57.2%. Alphabet's 3Q22 earnings report illustrated weaker ad revenue Y/Y in YouTube ads and Google Network ads, with Google Search and other ads growing only slightly by 4% Y/Y. We don't believe the slow growth of ad revenue is due to any shortcomings from Alphabet; instead, we expect the company's ad revenue to be frozen between global ad spending cuts and intensifying competition in the ad space. 1. Harsh macro environment causing weaker ad spending We expect ad spending is declining as companies worldwide cut ad budgets amid the global economic slowdown - we believe this will take a toll on Alphabet's ad revenue in the near term. Alphabet has built a virtual monopoly over the search engine market, with a 90% market share. We believe Alphabet's ad-dependent nature has driven growth in the past, but we're concerned about its growth in the near term. Insider Intelligence slashed global forecasts for ad spending during 2022 from 15.6% Y/Y growth to 8.5%. We believe the slowdown in ad spending is spilling into 2023, with Insider Intelligence forecasting digital ad spending to decelerate to 10.5% Y/Y growth this year. Multinational media and entertainment company, Paramount (PARA) fell short of revenue expectations for their third quarter of 2022 because of weaker ad spending, with the company's ad revenue declining 2% in the quarter. We expect Alphabet to suffer similar impacts from slower ad spending. Advertising agencies lowered 2023 digital media market forecasts in December; Interpublic Group of Companies' (IPG) Magna reported revising growth estimates for the global ad industry to 5% growth in 2023, down from 7.5% in its June report. According to a World Federation of Advertisers' (WFA) survey of 43 multinational companies, 30% of "major advertisers say they're cutting their ad budgets" in 2023. We believe the weaker ad spending will impact Alphabet's ad revenue in the near term. The following graph outlines the worldwide slowdown in digital ad spending projected between 2021-2026. 2. Race for the biggest slice of the $321B digital ad market The global digital advertising and marketing market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 13.1% between 2023-2028; we believe everyone is trying to get a slice of the profits. Since 2014, the digital ad space has been dominated by Meta Platforms (META), formerly known as Facebook, and Alphabet, which combined made up more than 50% of the market share. Recently, we have seen competition from Amazon (AMZN), TikTok, Microsoft (MSFT), and Apple (AAPL), among others, penetrate the market, visibly shrinking Alphabet and Meta's market share. Alphabet and Meta's U.S. ad revenues are projected to drop to a 43.9% market share in 2024, down from a 54.7% share in 2017. We believe Amazon is among the best positioned to grow its digital ad market share meaningfully, with ad revenues soaring from $1B in 2015 to nearly $38B last year. The following graph outlines Meta and Alphabet's shrinking market share in the U.S. digital ad market. Alphabet's ad business also faces pressure from a legal standpoint, with the U.S. Justice Department filing its second anti-trust lawsuit in two years against the company. The lawsuit accuses Alphabet's advertising business of playing on all sides of the market- "buying, selling and an ad exchange." The Justice Department argues that Alphabet is becoming "the be-all and end-all location for all ad serving," insinuating that the company is forming a monopoly over the ad space through its broad ownership. This isn't the only antitrust lawsuit facing Alphabet; the company also faces three other lawsuits. We believe this only thickens the company's near-term grunt. Google Cloud for the long-run According to Gartner, Alphabet's Google Cloud is catching up to the top players in the cloud-computing space. Google Cloud is ranked the third-largest player in the global public cloud market after Amazon's AWS and Microsoft's Azure. We believe Google Cloud will serve as a long-term growth driver, despite only accounting for roughly 10% of total revenues in the third quarter of 2022. Google Cloud revenue grew significantly compared to Alphabet's ad revenue, increasing 38% Y/Y, which is more than Microsoft Azure's 24% growth. We believe Google Cloud still has to expand its base to become a more meaningful global player but believe it's headed in the right direction for long-term growth. Still, we expect Google Cloud to be pressured by the weaker spending environment. Canalys, a tech market analyst firm, reported that inflation and rising interest rates are causing companies to reduce spending on cloud infrastructure. We believe this will harm cloud providers as companies are more hesitant about their IT spending amid market uncertainty; the annual growth rate for cloud infrastructure services fell below 30% for the first time, according to Canalys. We believe Alphabet is facing the grunt of the harsh macro environment on multiple fronts, and Google Cloud is no exception. Valuation Alphabet stock is relatively cheap, trading at 16.1x C2024 EPS $6.09 on a P/E basis compared to the peer group average of 19.5x. The stock is trading at 3.4x EV/C2024 sales versus the peer group average of 4.4x. We believe the stock will face more downside in 1H23 on account of the weaker spending environment; hence, we recommend investors wait for a better entry point on the stock. The following table outlines Alphabet's valuation compared to the peer group. Word on Wall Street Wall Street is overwhelmingly bullish on the stock. Of the 48 analysts covering the stock, 44 are buy-rated, and four are hold-rated. We attribute Wall Street's bullish sentiment on the stock to the widespread belief that Alphabet is the last FANG standing after the peer group took a beating last year. At the time this report was constructed, GOOG stock was trading at $97. The median and mean sell-side price targets are $124, for a potential upside of 28%. The following tables outline Alphabet's sell-side ratings and price targets. What to do with the stock We're bearish on Alphabet as we believe its ad business will be pressured in the near term due to ad budget cuts and intensifying competition. We also believe Google Cloud will feel softer demand in the near term due to macroeconomic headwinds. Alphabet's 3Q22 report missed expectations for top and bottom-line growth, with revenues growing a modest 6% short of the expectation of 8.5%. To top it off, Alphabet announced it'll cut 6% of its workforce, amounting to 12,000 employees. We expect Alphabet to continue missing expectations in 1H23 amid the weak spending market. We recommend investors wait on the sidelines of Alphabet stock as we see more downside ahead. This article was written by Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body. Comments (10) Lisa Su- CEO. AMD - “Over the next several years, one of our largest growth opportunities is in AI, which is in the early stages of transforming virtually every industry service and product. We expect AI adoption will accelerate significantly over the coming years”Mark Zuckerberg - CEO. Meta "Our priorities haven’t changed since last year. The two major technological waves driving our roadmap are AI today and over the longer term, the metaverse. So first, let’s talk about our AI discovery engine. Facebook and Instagram are shifting from being organized solely around people and accounts you follow to increasingly showing more relevant content recommended by our AI systems. And this covers every content format"So Mark has now put AI ahead of his metaverse developments.Microsoft is investing another 10 billion in OpenAI and we can assume they will seek to enhance their search offering.The NASDAQ is up 3% at the moment.C3.AI is currently up 50% in 5 daysEvery company is now asking the question: "Where is this AI stuff gonna go and what do we need to do about it and how can we use it?"So then.. do you think Google won't respond? Do you think they have nothing to offer here? Do you think they will just sit back and let others in digital advertising apply the new tech to their advertising offerings without a challenge? Who has more data than to AI on than Google? Who has the data histories that defined human behavior better than Google? Who is better positioned to collect data intelligence for AI in real time as the world moves forward than Google?Do you think that advertisers will sit on their budgets while Google (and others) bring out new exciting granular AI based media buying and AD strategies?I don't think so... but that's me.So.. if you should think like I do.. do you really want to wait until after Google makes their AI announcement to buy the stock, or do you want to get in before the pop?

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Dovish Powell And Meta Results Spark Market Rally

Looking for stock market analysis and research with proves results? Zacks.com offers in-depth financial research with over 30years of proven results.

TalkMarkets

This page has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved or endorsed by the companies represented herein. Each of the company logos represented herein are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation; Dow Jones & Company; Nasdaq, Inc.; Forbes Media, LLC; Investor's Business Daily, Inc.; and Morningstar, Inc. Copyright 2023 Zacks Investment Research | 10 S Riverside Plaza Suite #1600 | Chicago, IL 60606 At the center of everything we do is a strong commitment to independent research and sharing its profitable discoveries with investors. This dedication to giving investors a trading advantage led to the creation of our proven Zacks Rank stock-rating system. Since 1988 it has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.17% per year. These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 15, 2023. Zacks Rank stock-rating system returns are computed monthly based on the beginning of the month and end of the month Zacks Rank stock prices plus any dividends received during that particular month. A simple, equally-weighted average return of all Zacks Rank stocks is calculated to determine the monthly return. The monthly returns are then compounded to arrive at the annual return. Only Zacks Rank stocks included in Zacks hypothetical portfolios at the beginning of each month are included in the return calculations. Zacks Ranks stocks can, and often do, change throughout the month. Certain Zacks Rank stocks for which no month-end price was available, pricing information was not collected, or for certain other reasons have been excluded from these return calculations. Visit Performance Disclosure for information about the performance numbers displayed above. Visit www.zacksdata.com to get our data and content for your mobile app or website. Real time prices by BATS. Delayed quotes by FIS. NYSE and AMEX data is at least 20 minutes delayed. NASDAQ data is at least 15 minutes delayed. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

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Apple options imply 3.5% move in share price post-earnings

Looking for stock market analysis and research with proves results? Zacks.com offers in-depth financial research with over 30years of proven results.

Thefly.com

This page has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved or endorsed by the companies represented herein. Each of the company logos represented herein are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation; Dow Jones & Company; Nasdaq, Inc.; Forbes Media, LLC; Investor's Business Daily, Inc.; and Morningstar, Inc. Copyright 2023 Zacks Investment Research | 10 S Riverside Plaza Suite #1600 | Chicago, IL 60606 At the center of everything we do is a strong commitment to independent research and sharing its profitable discoveries with investors. This dedication to giving investors a trading advantage led to the creation of our proven Zacks Rank stock-rating system. Since 1988 it has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.17% per year. These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 15, 2023. Zacks Rank stock-rating system returns are computed monthly based on the beginning of the month and end of the month Zacks Rank stock prices plus any dividends received during that particular month. A simple, equally-weighted average return of all Zacks Rank stocks is calculated to determine the monthly return. The monthly returns are then compounded to arrive at the annual return. Only Zacks Rank stocks included in Zacks hypothetical portfolios at the beginning of each month are included in the return calculations. Zacks Ranks stocks can, and often do, change throughout the month. Certain Zacks Rank stocks for which no month-end price was available, pricing information was not collected, or for certain other reasons have been excluded from these return calculations. Visit Performance Disclosure for information about the performance numbers displayed above. Visit www.zacksdata.com to get our data and content for your mobile app or website. Real time prices by BATS. Delayed quotes by FIS. NYSE and AMEX data is at least 20 minutes delayed. NASDAQ data is at least 15 minutes delayed. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

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Alphabet: Don`t Underestimate The Power Of Ads. Moving To Hold

Looking for stock market analysis and research with proves results? Zacks.com offers in-depth financial research with over 30years of proven results.

Seeking Alpha

This page has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved or endorsed by the companies represented herein. Each of the company logos represented herein are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation; Dow Jones & Company; Nasdaq, Inc.; Forbes Media, LLC; Investor's Business Daily, Inc.; and Morningstar, Inc. Copyright 2023 Zacks Investment Research | 10 S Riverside Plaza Suite #1600 | Chicago, IL 60606 At the center of everything we do is a strong commitment to independent research and sharing its profitable discoveries with investors. This dedication to giving investors a trading advantage led to the creation of our proven Zacks Rank stock-rating system. Since 1988 it has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.17% per year. These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 15, 2023. Zacks Rank stock-rating system returns are computed monthly based on the beginning of the month and end of the month Zacks Rank stock prices plus any dividends received during that particular month. A simple, equally-weighted average return of all Zacks Rank stocks is calculated to determine the monthly return. The monthly returns are then compounded to arrive at the annual return. Only Zacks Rank stocks included in Zacks hypothetical portfolios at the beginning of each month are included in the return calculations. Zacks Ranks stocks can, and often do, change throughout the month. Certain Zacks Rank stocks for which no month-end price was available, pricing information was not collected, or for certain other reasons have been excluded from these return calculations. Visit Performance Disclosure for information about the performance numbers displayed above. Visit www.zacksdata.com to get our data and content for your mobile app or website. Real time prices by BATS. Delayed quotes by FIS. NYSE and AMEX data is at least 20 minutes delayed. NASDAQ data is at least 15 minutes delayed. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

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Weekly Roundup

After a week that included jobs data, Fed chatter and a massive bank failure, let's take stock of what happened, and how it affected the portfolio.

Yahoo

Weekly Roundup After a week that included jobs data, Fed chatter and a massive bank failure, let's take stock of what happened, and how it affected the portfolio. After a week that included jobs data, Fed chatter and a massive bank failure, let's take stock of what happened, and how it affected the portfolio.

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Shareholders Side With Apple on Contentious Votes, Analyst Eyes $230 Per Share

Apple's annual shareholders' meeting was held on Friday and despite some controversy and disagreements, the company won support for each of its voting proposals.

Yahoo

Shareholders Side With Apple on Contentious Votes, Analyst Eyes $230 Per Share Apple's annual shareholders' meeting was held on Friday and despite some controversy and disagreements, the company won support for each of its voting proposals. Apple's annual shareholders' meeting was held on Friday and despite some controversy and disagreements, the company won support for each of its voting proposals.

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Apple shareholders reject proposals from conservative groups

Apple Inc shareholders on Friday rejected two proposals put forth by conservative U.S. groups focused on scrutinizing the iPhone maker's inclusion and diversity policies and its ties to China.

Reuters

Apple shareholders reject proposals from conservative groups March 10 (Reuters) - Apple Inc (AAPL.O) shareholders on Friday rejected two proposals put forth by conservative U.S. groups focused on scrutinizing the iPhone maker's inclusion and diversity policies and its ties to China. Shareholders meanwhile approved the company's executive pay packages, with 89% of votes cast in favor. In January, Apple reduced Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook's pay and made it more dependent on stock performance. The unsuccessful diversity proposal, brought by the National Center for Public Policy Research, would have required Apple to consult right-leaning public interest groups in examining its diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) policies. "DEI is overtly bigoted against men, white people and straight people by falsely assuming that they are inherently — and irredeemably — racist and sexist oppressors," Ethan Peck, who presented the proposal, said in a statement. Apple argued that the proposal mischaracterized its policies and said such an examination would be redundant because it is already conducting a civil rights audit. The proposal lost with 98.5% of shareholders who cast votes opposing it. The National Legal and Policy Center, another conservative group, asked Apple to scrutinize its dependence on, and vulnerability to China. Apple recommended against the measure, saying that the iPhone maker already discloses a list of suppliers in China and information about human rights in an annual report. More than 95% of shareholders who cast votes opposed the measure. While both those measures failed, shareholders re-elected Apple's board of directors and approved its use of Ernst & Young as its independent audit firm. During a question-and-answer session with shareholders, Cook said that Apple continued to plan for dividend increases. On how Apple plans to respond to changing economic conditions, Cook noted that the company's operating expenses came in below its forecast during its most recently-reported quarter. "But most important, and I can't stress this enough, we're continuing to invest in innovation, whatever the near-term economic picture looks like," Cook said during the meeting. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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UPDATE 2-Apple shareholders reject proposals from conservative groups

Apple Inc shareholders on Friday rejected two proposals put forth by conservative U.S. groups focused on scrutinizing the iPhone maker's inclusion and diversity policies and its ties to China.

Reuters

Apple shareholders reject proposals from conservative groups March 10 (Reuters) - Apple Inc (AAPL.O) shareholders on Friday rejected two proposals put forth by conservative U.S. groups focused on scrutinizing the iPhone maker's inclusion and diversity policies and its ties to China. Shareholders meanwhile approved the company's executive pay packages, with 89% of votes cast in favor. In January, Apple reduced Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook's pay and made it more dependent on stock performance. The unsuccessful diversity proposal, brought by the National Center for Public Policy Research, would have required Apple to consult right-leaning public interest groups in examining its diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) policies. "DEI is overtly bigoted against men, white people and straight people by falsely assuming that they are inherently — and irredeemably — racist and sexist oppressors," Ethan Peck, who presented the proposal, said in a statement. Apple argued that the proposal mischaracterized its policies and said such an examination would be redundant because it is already conducting a civil rights audit. The proposal lost with 98.5% of shareholders who cast votes opposing it. The National Legal and Policy Center, another conservative group, asked Apple to scrutinize its dependence on, and vulnerability to China. Apple recommended against the measure, saying that the iPhone maker already discloses a list of suppliers in China and information about human rights in an annual report. More than 95% of shareholders who cast votes opposed the measure. While both those measures failed, shareholders re-elected Apple's board of directors and approved its use of Ernst & Young as its independent audit firm. During a question-and-answer session with shareholders, Cook said that Apple continued to plan for dividend increases. On how Apple plans to respond to changing economic conditions, Cook noted that the company's operating expenses came in below its forecast during its most recently-reported quarter. "But most important, and I can't stress this enough, we're continuing to invest in innovation, whatever the near-term economic picture looks like," Cook said during the meeting. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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These 3 Tech Companies Generate Substantial Cash

A high free cash flow allows for more growth opportunities, consistent dividend payouts, and the ability to pay off debt easily. Who doesn't find that exciting?

Yahoo

These 3 Tech Companies Generate Substantial Cash Let’s face it - searching for stocks can be difficult with so many options. However, one way to cut out the bad apples is by focusing on stocks with strong free cash flow. But what is free cash flow, and why does it matter? In its simplest form, free cash flow is the amount of cash a company keeps after paying for operating costs and capital expenditures. A high free cash flow allows for more growth opportunities, consistent dividend payouts, and the ability to pay off debt easily. As we can see, the benefits of strong cash-generating abilities are undoubtedly massive. And interestingly enough, three tech titans – Apple AAPL, Alphabet GOOGL, and Broadcom AVGO – all boast strong cash-generating abilities. Let’s take a closer look at each one. Apple We’ve all become highly familiar with Apple, the technology heavyweight that has revolutionized the mobile phone landscape with its flagship iPhone. Apple is commonly seen as the king of free cash flow; in its latest quarter, the heavyweight generated roughly $30.2 billion in free cash flow, growing 45% sequentially. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Investors will have to fork up a premium for shares. AAPL’s current forward earnings multiple of 24.9X is a few ticks above its 23.7X five-year median but remains below highs of 31.3X in 2022. The stock carries a Value Style Score of “D.” Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Alphabet Alphabet has evolved from primarily being a search engine into a company with operations in cloud computing, ad-based video and music streaming, autonomous vehicles, and more. Unlike Apple, GOOGL shares trade at a nice discount relative to their historic levels; Alphabet’s 18.1X forward earnings multiple is well beneath the 26.1X five-year median and Zacks Computer and Technology sector average. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research It’s hard to ignore the company’s free cash flow strength, with GOOGL reporting free cash flow of $16 billion in its latest quarter. Like Apple, Alphabet is one of the top cash-generating machines within the S&P 500. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Broadcom Broadcom is a premier designer, developer, and global supplier of a broad range of semiconductor devices. Broadcom’s dividend metrics would excite any income-focused investor; its annual dividend presently yields 2.9%, more than triple that of the Zacks Computer and Technology sector. And to top it off, the company’s 21% five-year annualized dividend growth rate reflects a solid commitment to increasingly rewarding shareholders. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research AVGO raked in nearly $4 billion in free cash flow in its latest quarter, growing more than 16% year-over-year. As we can see in the chart below, Broadcom’s free cash flow has been growing nicely. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research Bottom Line With so many options out there, it seems nearly impossible to find the right stocks. However, by focusing on free cash flow strength, investors can block much of the noise. For those interested in companies that generate serious cash, all three companies above – Apple AAPL, Alphabet GOOGL, and Broadcom AVGO – could be considerations. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Apple Inc. (AAPL) : Free Stock Analysis Report Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) : Free Stock Analysis Report Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) : Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here.

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Apple Faces Scant Shareholder Dissent at Annual Shareholder Meeting

(Bloomberg) -- Apple Inc. investors reelected its board, approved its compensation plan and rejected the shareholder proposals that the company opposed, giving the iPhone maker a clean sweep during its annual meeting.Most Read from BloombergSilicon Valley Bank Swiftly Collapses After Tech Startups FleeWhy Is Everyone Talking About SVB? Everything We Know About the Bank’s Collapse Right NowOne Bank Folds, Another Wobbles and Wall Street Asks If It’s a CrisisStartup Bank Had a Startup Bank RunSVB

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Apple Faces Scant Shareholder Dissent at Annual Shareholder Meeting (Bloomberg) -- Apple Inc. investors reelected its board, approved its compensation plan and rejected the shareholder proposals that the company opposed, giving the iPhone maker a clean sweep during its annual meeting. Most Read from Bloomberg Ryan Reynolds-Backed Mint Is Bought by T-Mobile for $1.35 Billion Credit Suisse Reels After Top Shareholder Rules Out Raising Stake A preliminary tally of the votes showed that the four measures Apple supported, including its board slate and compensation, were approved Friday. The five shareholder measures that it asked investors to reject failed to gain enough votes to pass. The company had sought to stave off investor concerns about compensation in the run-up to the shareholder meeting. Apple said in January that Cook’s pay package for 2023 would decline more than 40%, going from over $99 million in 2022 to a target of $49 million this year. The CEO’s pay will also be more closely tied to overall company performance. The reduction came after institutional shareholders and advisers criticized his compensation. Read More: Apple’s Tim Cook Takes Rare CEO Pay Cut After Pushback Cook’s pay for 2023 will include a $3 million base salary, a $6 million cash bonus and stock awards worth about $40 million. Apple’s other top executives, which include the chief operating officer, finance chief, general counsel and head of retail, will each receive compensation of about $27 million apiece this year. Shareholders also approved a proposal to vote on compensation annually. A “civil rights” measure sought to commission a company audit on Apple’s impact in that area, including its inclusion and diversity efforts. Last year, shareholders defied Apple’s recommendation and voted for another civil rights proposal. Apple advised shareholders to vote against the measure this year, arguing that the audit from last year was already in progress. A measure also sought to make Apple report annually on its reliance on China, which a shareholder group called a “serial human rights violator, a geopolitical threat and an adversary to the United States.” Apple pushed back on the proposal, saying it is committed to human rights and that it already provides information about its business with China in filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The measure failed. The other rejected proposals included one about board director engagement with shareholders, the reporting of racial and gender pay gaps at the company, and a bylaw amendment that would call for more shareholder representation on the board. Apple’s entire board, which includes Cook, Chairman Arthur Levinson, former US Vice President Al Gore and BlackRock Inc. co-founder Susan Wagner, was reelected. An Apple shareholder had called for the removal of both Gore and Cook, an effort that didn’t gain momentum. The Cupertino, California-based company has held the meeting virtually since 2021, when the Covid pandemic prompted the change. During Friday’s gathering, Cook made the introductory remarks and took questions. Kate Adams, the company’s general counsel, handled the formal portion of the meeting and the voting process. The executives took the form of memojis — the virtual characters Apple offers in iMessage — and shareholders who submitted proposals spoke via prerecorded messages. Before the meeting began, Apple showed videos of its latest devices, including the new AirPods Pro and Apple Watch Ultra, in addition to billboards globally highlighting the iPhone 14 Pro. The company also played a commercial for the new yellow iPhone 14 color. Apple shares have climbed about 15% this year, far outpacing the S&P 500 Index. The stock slipped 1.1% to $148.93 as of 1:15 p.m. in New York on Friday. Shareholders voted on nine proposals in all: four from Apple and five from outside investors. While shareholders typically abide by the company’s advice, they have broken with management on a few issues in recent years. That includes voting last year in favor of a public report on using concealment clauses in employee contracts. At Friday’s meeting, Cook said that Apple has adapted to the long-term effects of the pandemic, as well as the war in Europe and economic tumult. He also talked up the company’s latest Apple Watch, TV set-top box, iPad, iPhone, HomePod and AirPods features. And Cook touted the latest shows on its TV+ streaming service and services like Apple Music, Pay and Fitness+. Cook said he sees an “incredible amount of opportunity” in India and reiterated plans to soon open the company’s first store in the nation. Apple also is breaking India out into its own sales region, further signaling the country’s importance, Bloomberg News reported earlier this week. Cook talked up growth in Brazil, Indonesia and Mexico as well. The CEO said Apple continues to plan for annual dividend increases in the future. Asked about the economy, Cook said that it’s as “complex” as it’s ever been and that the company is being very deliberate on hiring and spending. Cook also said that Apple will continue working on streamlining its supply chain. (Updates with more on Cook’s comments starting in 13th paragraph.) Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek Naples, Florida, Is Getting So Expensive That City Workers Can't Afford It 72 Hours in Washington: How the Frenzied SVB Rescue Took Shape Glencore CEO Rides Coal Windfall on the Way to a Low-Carbon World ©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

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Wall Street Firm Turns Bearish On Apple Stock; Here's Why

A Wall Street firm turned bearish on Apple stock on Friday, downgrading shares to sell from neutral.

Yahoo

Wall Street Firm Turns Bearish On Apple Stock; Here's Why A Wall Street firm turned bearish on Apple stock on Friday, downgrading shares to sell from neutral. A Wall Street firm turned bearish on Apple stock on Friday, downgrading shares to sell from neutral.

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Apple Inc. stock falls Friday, still outperforms market

Shares of Apple Inc. shed 1.39% to $148.50 Friday, on what proved to be an all-around rough trading session for the stock market, with the NASDAQ Composite...

MarketWatch

Shares of Apple Inc. AAPL shed 1.39% to $148.50 Friday, on what proved to be an all-around rough trading session for the stock market, with the NASDAQ Composite Index COMP falling 1.76% to 11,138.89 and Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA falling 1.07% to 31,909.64. This was the stock's second consecutive day of losses. Apple Inc. closed $31.11 short of its 52-week high ($179.61), which the company reached on March 30th. Despite its losses, the stock outperformed some of its competitors Friday, as Microsoft Corp. MSFT fell...

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Apple argues UK competition watchdog had "no power" to launch probe

Technology giant Apple on Friday told a London tribunal that Britain's competition watchdog had "no power" to launch a probe into its mobile browsers because it did so too late.

Reuters

Apple argues UK competition watchdog had "no power" to launch probe LONDON, March 10 (Reuters) - Technology giant Apple (AAPL.O) on Friday told a London tribunal that Britain's competition watchdog had "no power" to launch a probe into its mobile browsers because it did so too late. The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) opened a full investigation in November into cloud gaming and mobile browsers over concerns about restrictions by iPhone-maker Apple, as well as by Google (GOOGL.O). Apple filed an appeal in January at the Competition Appeal Tribunal in London and argues the investigation is "invalid". Its lawyer Timothy Otty said on Friday that the market investigation should by law have been opened last June at the same time as the CMA published a report on mobile ecosystems, which found the two tech giants had an "effective duopoly". He added in court filings that Apple has "suffered serious prejudice" as a result of the CMA's decision, having "had to repeatedly divert management time and technical resources away from its business activities". However, the CMA's lawyer James Eadie said the watchdog had complied with the legal time limits, because it initially decided not to open an investigation in December 2021. He argued in court filings that a ruling that the investigation is invalid would cause "significant prejudice to the public interest … which outweighs any burden shouldered by Apple". "A finding of invalidity would terminate the market investigation and leave unaddressed the CMA's concerns about the lack of competition for mobile browsers and cloud gaming," Eadie added. Friday's hearing took place on the same day that the CMA said it was extending the deadline for its analysis and review into Apple's terms and conditions for app developers until May. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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2 Billion Reasons to Buy Apple Stock in 2023 and Hold It Forever

Tech giant Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is no different. In fact, there are 2 billion reasons why the company remains a solid buy this year. Apple's December quarter, the first quarter of its fiscal year 2023, was perhaps disappointing.

Yahoo

2 Billion Reasons to Buy Apple Stock in 2023 and Hold It Forever Tech giant Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is no different. In fact, there are 2 billion reasons why the company remains a solid buy this year. Apple's December quarter, the first quarter of its fiscal year 2023, was perhaps disappointing.

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UK says needs more time to review Apple's alleged App Store monopoly

The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) in March 2021 opened its investigation into Apple's distribution of apps on iOS and iPadOS devices in the UK. The ongoing probe would consider if Apple has a dominant position in the distribution of apps on its devices in the UK.

Yahoo

UK says needs more time to review Apple's alleged App Store monopoly (Reuters) - Britain's competition regulator has extended the deadline for its analysis and review into Apple Inc's terms and conditions for app developers to May. The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) in March 2021 opened its investigation into Apple's distribution of apps on iOS and iPadOS devices in the UK. The ongoing probe would consider if Apple has a dominant position in the distribution of apps on its devices in the UK. (Reporting by Radhika Anilkumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Saumyadeb Chakrabarty)

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Apple backers re-elect entire board at shareholder meeting, support Cook pay

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This page has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved or endorsed by the companies represented herein. Each of the company logos represented herein are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation; Dow Jones & Company; Nasdaq, Inc.; Forbes Media, LLC; Investor's Business Daily, Inc.; and Morningstar, Inc. Copyright 2023 Zacks Investment Research | 10 S Riverside Plaza Suite #1600 | Chicago, IL 60606 At the center of everything we do is a strong commitment to independent research and sharing its profitable discoveries with investors. This dedication to giving investors a trading advantage led to the creation of our proven Zacks Rank stock-rating system. Since 1988 it has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.17% per year. These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 15, 2023. Zacks Rank stock-rating system returns are computed monthly based on the beginning of the month and end of the month Zacks Rank stock prices plus any dividends received during that particular month. A simple, equally-weighted average return of all Zacks Rank stocks is calculated to determine the monthly return. The monthly returns are then compounded to arrive at the annual return. Only Zacks Rank stocks included in Zacks hypothetical portfolios at the beginning of each month are included in the return calculations. Zacks Ranks stocks can, and often do, change throughout the month. Certain Zacks Rank stocks for which no month-end price was available, pricing information was not collected, or for certain other reasons have been excluded from these return calculations. Visit Performance Disclosure for information about the performance numbers displayed above. Visit www.zacksdata.com to get our data and content for your mobile app or website. Real time prices by BATS. Delayed quotes by FIS. NYSE and AMEX data is at least 20 minutes delayed. NASDAQ data is at least 15 minutes delayed. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

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3 Index Funds to Buy for March

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This page has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved or endorsed by the companies represented herein. Each of the company logos represented herein are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation; Dow Jones & Company; Nasdaq, Inc.; Forbes Media, LLC; Investor's Business Daily, Inc.; and Morningstar, Inc. Copyright 2023 Zacks Investment Research | 10 S Riverside Plaza Suite #1600 | Chicago, IL 60606 At the center of everything we do is a strong commitment to independent research and sharing its profitable discoveries with investors. This dedication to giving investors a trading advantage led to the creation of our proven Zacks Rank stock-rating system. Since 1988 it has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.17% per year. These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 15, 2023. Zacks Rank stock-rating system returns are computed monthly based on the beginning of the month and end of the month Zacks Rank stock prices plus any dividends received during that particular month. A simple, equally-weighted average return of all Zacks Rank stocks is calculated to determine the monthly return. The monthly returns are then compounded to arrive at the annual return. Only Zacks Rank stocks included in Zacks hypothetical portfolios at the beginning of each month are included in the return calculations. Zacks Ranks stocks can, and often do, change throughout the month. Certain Zacks Rank stocks for which no month-end price was available, pricing information was not collected, or for certain other reasons have been excluded from these return calculations. Visit Performance Disclosure for information about the performance numbers displayed above. Visit www.zacksdata.com to get our data and content for your mobile app or website. Real time prices by BATS. Delayed quotes by FIS. NYSE and AMEX data is at least 20 minutes delayed. NASDAQ data is at least 15 minutes delayed. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

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Moderna boosted by expansion plans, while SVB fallout continues to pressure banks and financials

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This page has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved or endorsed by the companies represented herein. Each of the company logos represented herein are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation; Dow Jones & Company; Nasdaq, Inc.; Forbes Media, LLC; Investor's Business Daily, Inc.; and Morningstar, Inc. Copyright 2023 Zacks Investment Research | 10 S Riverside Plaza Suite #1600 | Chicago, IL 60606 At the center of everything we do is a strong commitment to independent research and sharing its profitable discoveries with investors. This dedication to giving investors a trading advantage led to the creation of our proven Zacks Rank stock-rating system. Since 1988 it has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.17% per year. These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 15, 2023. Zacks Rank stock-rating system returns are computed monthly based on the beginning of the month and end of the month Zacks Rank stock prices plus any dividends received during that particular month. A simple, equally-weighted average return of all Zacks Rank stocks is calculated to determine the monthly return. The monthly returns are then compounded to arrive at the annual return. Only Zacks Rank stocks included in Zacks hypothetical portfolios at the beginning of each month are included in the return calculations. Zacks Ranks stocks can, and often do, change throughout the month. Certain Zacks Rank stocks for which no month-end price was available, pricing information was not collected, or for certain other reasons have been excluded from these return calculations. Visit Performance Disclosure for information about the performance numbers displayed above. Visit www.zacksdata.com to get our data and content for your mobile app or website. Real time prices by BATS. Delayed quotes by FIS. NYSE and AMEX data is at least 20 minutes delayed. NASDAQ data is at least 15 minutes delayed. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

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Most Active Equity Options For Midday - Friday, March 10

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This page has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved or endorsed by the companies represented herein. Each of the company logos represented herein are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation; Dow Jones & Company; Nasdaq, Inc.; Forbes Media, LLC; Investor's Business Daily, Inc.; and Morningstar, Inc. Copyright 2023 Zacks Investment Research | 10 S Riverside Plaza Suite #1600 | Chicago, IL 60606 At the center of everything we do is a strong commitment to independent research and sharing its profitable discoveries with investors. This dedication to giving investors a trading advantage led to the creation of our proven Zacks Rank stock-rating system. Since 1988 it has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.17% per year. These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 15, 2023. Zacks Rank stock-rating system returns are computed monthly based on the beginning of the month and end of the month Zacks Rank stock prices plus any dividends received during that particular month. A simple, equally-weighted average return of all Zacks Rank stocks is calculated to determine the monthly return. The monthly returns are then compounded to arrive at the annual return. Only Zacks Rank stocks included in Zacks hypothetical portfolios at the beginning of each month are included in the return calculations. Zacks Ranks stocks can, and often do, change throughout the month. Certain Zacks Rank stocks for which no month-end price was available, pricing information was not collected, or for certain other reasons have been excluded from these return calculations. Visit Performance Disclosure for information about the performance numbers displayed above. Visit www.zacksdata.com to get our data and content for your mobile app or website. Real time prices by BATS. Delayed quotes by FIS. NYSE and AMEX data is at least 20 minutes delayed. NASDAQ data is at least 15 minutes delayed. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

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TQQQ: Still Waiting And Watching

TQQQ is a leveraged ETF that has been on my watchlist. Read why I don't think the valuations for most of the largest stocks in the index are attractive today.

SeekingAlpha

TQQQ: Still Waiting And Watching Summary - TQQQ is a leveraged ETF that has been on my watchlist, but I don't think the valuations for most of the largest stocks in the index are attractive today. - I talk a bit about inflation and how I think commodities, energy, and real assets will outperform the tech sector. - Of the top 10, I only find Amazon and Broadcom attractive today, and I actually bought a put option on Tesla after its massive share price run to start 2023. While I typically avoid ETFs due to the fees, an ETF that has been on my watchlist for more than a year is the ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:TQQQ). I have seen comments asking when I plan to buy, or if I bought any steep declines like the one last fall. I want to talk briefly about some of the characteristics of TQQQ (and other leveraged ETFs) before getting into the largest holdings. My plan for potentially buying a tiny position of TQQQ would probably have a one to six-month timeframe, basically a short- to medium-term strategy. I would probably be looking for another 20% decline (or more) in the major indices before buying TQQQ. If we see that, combined with a potential return of the Federal Reserve money gun, TQQQ could be an interesting short-term trade. TQQQ offers more speculative upside than QQQ on a smaller position size, and I would rather buy TQQQ than use leverage to buy QQQ. You pay the ETF management fees, but I think it's more attractive than borrowing to buy QQQ at current margin rates. Disclaimer The risks with TQQQ include beta slippage, but also short-term volatility that can be stomach-turning. For example, a big market decline can cut an investment in TQQQ by 20% or 30% in a week, so investors should go into an investment in TQQQ with eyes wide open to those risks. Investors that are unfamiliar with the potential risks might want to spend a couple of minutes to read what the SEC has to say about leveraged ETFs. ProShares UltraPro QQQ® (the "Fund") seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to three times (3x) the return of the Nasdaq-100® Index (the "Index") for a single day, not for any other period. A "single day" is measured from the time the Fund calculates its net asset value ("NAV") to the time of the Fund's next NAV calculation. The return of the Fund for periods longer than a single day will be the result of its return for each day compounded over the period. The Fund's returns for periods longer than a single day will very likely differ in amount, and possibly even direction, from the Fund's stated multiple (3x) times the return of the Index for the same period. For periods longer than a single day, the Fund will lose money if the Index's performance is flat, and it is possible that the Fund will lose money even if the level of the Index rises. Longer holding periods, higher Index volatility, and greater leveraged exposure each exacerbate the impact of compounding on an investor's returns. During periods of higher Index volatility, the volatility of the Index may affect the Fund's return as much as or more than the return of the Index. The Fund presents different risks than other types of funds. The Fund uses leverage and is riskier than similarly benchmarked funds that do not use leverage. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors and should be used only by knowledgeable investors who understand the consequences of seeking daily leveraged (3x) investment results of the Index, including the impact of compounding on Fund performance. Investors in the Fund should actively manage and monitor their investments, as frequently as daily. An investor in the Fund could potentially lose the full value of their investment within a single day. Inflation & The Next Decade The biggest problem I see with TQQQ is the concentration in the large tech companies, which is also a problem for Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ), which TQQQ follows. While that worked great for investors until late 2021, I think markets have begun to shift over the last couple of years. I'm of the opinion that commodities, energy, and companies with real assets will outperform over the next decade. I was watching for inflation starting in 2020 for several reasons, but I think the idea that inflation will come down to where it was over the last decade is wishful thinking. That doesn't mean I'm predicting hyperinflation or anything drastic like that, but I think we will see inflation stop and start for years, and I think inflation will probably be 5% or higher for years. That's just CPI, and if you want to go down the rabbit hole on inflation, you should check out shadowstats.com. Their website tracks inflation using old measurements, which shows how understated CPI is compared to actual inflation. I will do brief overviews of each company in the top 10, but on the whole, I don't think the largest parts of TQQQ represent attractive risk/reward prospects today. Apple & Microsoft Like any market cap weighted index or ETF, Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) will make up a large portion of the fund. While this is true for S&P 500 indices like (SPY) or (VOO), these two companies have an even larger weighting in TQQQ. Both have well over 10% weightings, but I'm not going to go into too much detail because I wrote articles on both in the last couple of months (here and here). Apple has a market cap of $2.4T, while Microsoft has a market cap of $1.9T, which will probably be a drag on forward returns. I don't find either attractive simply due to the valuations, which I talked about in those articles, and I have my doubts on how much either can grow from here. Another thing that I'm not a huge fan of is how both companies continue to buy back large amounts of stock regardless of the valuation. Amazon Amazon (AMZN) and its $972B market cap account for another 6% of the ETF. I have been bullish on Amazon because of AWS, but I have been wondering if it might be worth selling my small position in Amazon to buy something else. I still think the company is in a good position with their core businesses, especially AWS, but if the right opportunity comes along, I might part ways with my Amazon shares. Of the largest components of TQQQ, I think Amazon is still the most attractive today. The Ad Giants - Google & Meta These two are companies I'm not really interested in owning for several reasons, but I don't think the coming years are going to be a great environment for advertising businesses like Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Meta (META). Google has a P/E of 20.5x and a market cap of $1.2T, and accounts for about 7.5% of TQQQ. I'm curious to see how ChatGPT and other developments, including smaller video platform competitors for YouTube, impact Google's search engine monopoly, but I don't think the next decade will be as good for their business as the last one was. Meta has had a massive run since the beginning of November, and shares now trade at an earnings multiple of 21x. This puts the market cap at $480B and is 2.5% of TQQQ. I have my doubts about the Metaverse strategy, and I have been critical of the company's buybacks a couple of years ago as the CEO was dumping a huge number of shares. Like Google, I think the next decade will not be like the last one for Meta. Pie In The Sky Valuations - Nvidia & Tesla Both these companies have had massive runs to start 2023, and I think the valuation is so rich that I would honestly rather be short these two than own them. I actually bought a put option on Tesla (TSLA) when shares were around $205, so we will see if that pays off. The contract expires near the end of April with a strike of $150. I don't gamble much, but I watched the absurd move Tesla made to start the year, and it looked like short-covering and speculative buying instead of an actual fundamental improvement in the business. If shares keep dropping, I will probably look to exit the trade in the next couple of weeks. Nvidia (NVDA) also had its own massive move, including a large jump after earnings. They can talk all they want about AI in their earnings calls, but I don't see how investors owning Nvidia today generate attractive forward returns. I could be wrong, but unless Nvidia can grow rapidly through the next couple of cycles for the semiconductor industry, buying at the current valuation is not attractive in my opinion. Between the two companies, they account for about 6% of TQQQ, which means there is another sizable chunk of the ETF that find unattractive. Rounding Out The Top 10 - Pepsi & Broadcom Pepsi (PEP) is the only non-tech company in the top 10, with a 2.3% weight. While I don't think the downside is as big as some of the other stocks in the top 10, it's not a business I would pay over 25x earnings for, despite a 2.7% dividend. It's a slow-growth business, and I don't find their business mix to be all that attractive. It's basically just a mix of different junk foods and drinks, and I think people will start to pay more attention to their diet and health in the coming years. Broadcom (AVGO) would probably be my first choice to buy in the top 10 today, but it only accounts for just over 2% of the ETF. The company has a P/E of just over 16x and a dividend yield of 2.9%, and a history of being a very successful operator in the semiconductor industry. They operate in a different part of the industry than Nvidia, but the valuation is much more attractive. The market cap is $264B, so they might not grow as fast as the last decade, but Broadcom is a solid dividend growth stock. Conclusion I'm sure some commenters will talk about their trades in TQQQ (which I love to hear about, by the way), but I'm just not at a point where I'm comfortable buying the ETF today. TQQQ has a different risk profile than QQQ, including potential systemic issues and massive volatility with leveraged ETFs, but if your timing is good, you get a lot more bang for your buck buying the leveraged TQQQ ETF. I have said in the past that I'm looking for capitulation and panic, but I will still look elsewhere as long as the valuations for the largest stocks in the index stay rich. There are only a couple of stocks in the top 10 I find attractive today, but TQQQ could still have a huge run if the market takes off. While TQQQ is still on my watchlist, it is staying on the backburner while I focus on other sectors that I find more attractive today. This article was written by Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMZN either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Also short TSLA via put options. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body. Comments (18) TQQQ is great macro play setup right now. Interest rate hikes will be done shortly. Pause on deck and with slowing growth and weak GDP on deck that means they will then start to lower rates maybe as early as the end of this year, or 2024 for sure. Will be fun to revisit articles and comments when the end of 2023 rolls around. The announcement of just a pause from Powell could send TQQQ up substantially in a very short time. 21.02 +0.14 (+0.67%) After hours: 05:09PM ESTManaged to buy right into this bear action yesterday @ 22.85. Made .41 cents selling calls. Been waiting months for the 'coming recession'. Not sure if it's happening now.I'll be selling more calls next week.

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What You Missed On Wall Street This Morning

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Thefly.com

This page has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved or endorsed by the companies represented herein. Each of the company logos represented herein are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation; Dow Jones & Company; Nasdaq, Inc.; Forbes Media, LLC; Investor's Business Daily, Inc.; and Morningstar, Inc. Copyright 2023 Zacks Investment Research | 10 S Riverside Plaza Suite #1600 | Chicago, IL 60606 At the center of everything we do is a strong commitment to independent research and sharing its profitable discoveries with investors. This dedication to giving investors a trading advantage led to the creation of our proven Zacks Rank stock-rating system. Since 1988 it has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.17% per year. These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 15, 2023. Zacks Rank stock-rating system returns are computed monthly based on the beginning of the month and end of the month Zacks Rank stock prices plus any dividends received during that particular month. A simple, equally-weighted average return of all Zacks Rank stocks is calculated to determine the monthly return. The monthly returns are then compounded to arrive at the annual return. Only Zacks Rank stocks included in Zacks hypothetical portfolios at the beginning of each month are included in the return calculations. Zacks Ranks stocks can, and often do, change throughout the month. Certain Zacks Rank stocks for which no month-end price was available, pricing information was not collected, or for certain other reasons have been excluded from these return calculations. Visit Performance Disclosure for information about the performance numbers displayed above. Visit www.zacksdata.com to get our data and content for your mobile app or website. Real time prices by BATS. Delayed quotes by FIS. NYSE and AMEX data is at least 20 minutes delayed. NASDAQ data is at least 15 minutes delayed. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

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SXSW 2023: Austin becomes the global center for AI & deep tech

There’s something in the air in Austin, Texas, and it’s not the sound of fans cheering on the Longhorns, the twang of a country guitar, or the smell of Texas BBQ. It’s South by Southwest, an annual celebration that’s billed as both a conference and a festival, or somewhere in the middle, but as organizers and veterans will tell you, ‘you just have to be there.’ It’s a mashup of film, music, tech, and culture. A place where you can watch Ironman lecture a crowd on cyber-security, receive healthcare advice from the Jonas Brothers, and watch a movie premiere in virtual reality, all in one afternoon. But why is this happening? And who’s going? Well, everyone- fans, entrepreneurs, thrill seekers, investors, and they’re all going for the same reason- they’re looking for the next big thing. For the first time in a long time, the tech sector is experiencing a transformation. You’ve read about it in the news, heard about it in the break room, and you’ve seen it with your own eyes on social media. I’m talking about AI and what some are calling “deep tech” – those scientific advancements which include innovations in areas like virtual reality and robotics. Between star studded conversations and out-of-this-world exhibits, SXSW will give us a sneak peak into the future and how these new technologies will change our economy and our world, from the way we work, to the way we play. We’ll be speaking to the top thinkers and up and coming entrepreneurs about what all of this means for both businesses and consumers, because we’re on the edge of a brand new era in modern technology, and SXSW is the main stage. Over the past few years, there’s been a shift in how we think about the tech industry and the emergence of a new capital city for American business. Tesla (TSLA), Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOGL), Oracle (ORCL)— why are the world’s most valuable companies all moving to Austin, Texas? Could it be the weather? The taxes? The food? Or maybe it’s the vibe? The answer lies at South by Southwest: Austin’s coming out party, at the conference and the festival, or somewhere in the middle.

Yahoo

SXSW 2023: Austin becomes the global center for AI & deep tech There’s something in the air in Austin, Texas, and it’s not the sound of fans cheering on the Longhorns, the twang of a country guitar, or the smell of Texas BBQ. It’s South by Southwest, an annual celebration that’s billed as both a conference and a festival, or somewhere in the middle, but as organizers and veterans will tell you, ‘you just have to be there.’ It’s a mashup of film, music, tech, and culture. A place where you can watch Ironman lecture a crowd on cyber-security, receive healthcare advice from the Jonas Brothers, and watch a movie premiere in virtual reality, all in one afternoon. But why is this happening? And who’s going? Well, everyone- fans, entrepreneurs, thrill seekers, investors, and they’re all going for the same reason- they’re looking for the next big thing. For the first time in a long time, the tech sector is experiencing a transformation. You’ve read about it in the news, heard about it in the break room, and you’ve seen it with your own eyes on social media. I’m talking about AI and what some are calling “deep tech” – those scientific advancements which include innovations in areas like virtual reality and robotics. Between star studded conversations and out-of-this-world exhibits, SXSW will give us a sneak peak into the future and how these new technologies will change our economy and our world, from the way we work, to the way we play. We’ll be speaking to the top thinkers and up and coming entrepreneurs about what all of this means for both businesses and consumers, because we’re on the edge of a brand new era in modern technology, and SXSW is the main stage. Over the past few years, there’s been a shift in how we think about the tech industry and the emergence of a new capital city for American business. Tesla (TSLA), Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOGL), Oracle (ORCL)— why are the world’s most valuable companies all moving to Austin, Texas? Could it be the weather? The taxes? The food? Or maybe it’s the vibe? The answer lies at South by Southwest: Austin’s coming out party, at the conference and the festival, or somewhere in the middle.

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ChatGPT Says These 5 Tech Stocks Can Make You Rich in 5 Years

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This page has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved or endorsed by the companies represented herein. Each of the company logos represented herein are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation; Dow Jones & Company; Nasdaq, Inc.; Forbes Media, LLC; Investor's Business Daily, Inc.; and Morningstar, Inc. Copyright 2023 Zacks Investment Research | 10 S Riverside Plaza Suite #1600 | Chicago, IL 60606 At the center of everything we do is a strong commitment to independent research and sharing its profitable discoveries with investors. This dedication to giving investors a trading advantage led to the creation of our proven Zacks Rank stock-rating system. Since 1988 it has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.17% per year. These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 15, 2023. Zacks Rank stock-rating system returns are computed monthly based on the beginning of the month and end of the month Zacks Rank stock prices plus any dividends received during that particular month. A simple, equally-weighted average return of all Zacks Rank stocks is calculated to determine the monthly return. The monthly returns are then compounded to arrive at the annual return. Only Zacks Rank stocks included in Zacks hypothetical portfolios at the beginning of each month are included in the return calculations. Zacks Ranks stocks can, and often do, change throughout the month. Certain Zacks Rank stocks for which no month-end price was available, pricing information was not collected, or for certain other reasons have been excluded from these return calculations. Visit Performance Disclosure for information about the performance numbers displayed above. Visit www.zacksdata.com to get our data and content for your mobile app or website. Real time prices by BATS. Delayed quotes by FIS. NYSE and AMEX data is at least 20 minutes delayed. NASDAQ data is at least 15 minutes delayed. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

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68% of Warren Buffett's $334 Billion Portfolio Is Invested in Only 4 Stocks

Portfolio concentration has played a sizable role in Buffett's vast outperformance of the S&P 500.

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68% of Warren Buffett's $334 Billion Portfolio Is Invested in Only 4 Stocks Portfolio concentration has played a sizable role in Buffett's vast outperformance of the S&P 500. Portfolio concentration has played a sizable role in Buffett's vast outperformance of the S&P 500.

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A new Steve Jobs book of speeches, interviews and photos will be free to download — here’s where to get it 

‘Make Something Wonderful’ — an intimate look at the Apple founder’s life in his own words — will be available online April 11

MarketWatch

Apple founder Steve Jobs has continued to inspire even after his death in 2011. Just this week, in fact, Tim Cook — Apple’s AAPL, And now anyone who wants to get an intimate glimpse into Jobs’s wisdom and reflections on his life, which was cut short at just 56, can download a curated collection of personal correspondence, speeches and interviews — for free. “‘He has been written about, but this is actually his writing and his work.’” “Make Something Wonderful: Steve Jobs In His Own Words” is available free of charge to the public beginning Tuesday. Laurene Powell Jobs, the Apple co-founder’s widow, told the Washington Post that this cross between a posthumous memoir and a scrapbook is a way for people to hear directly from her husband more than 11 years after his death. “He has been written about, but this is actually his writing and his work,” she told the paper. “So there’s no intermediary.” From the archives (October 2011): Apple co-founder Steve Jobs dies The title of the collection comes from a line spoken by Jobs during an internal meeting at Apple shortly after the launch of the first iPhone product line in 2007: “One of the ways that I believe people express their appreciation to the rest of humanity is to make something wonderful and put it out there,” he said. The Steve Jobs Archive, which is publishing the book, describes it as “an unparalleled window into how one of the world’s most creative entrepreneurs approached his life and work.” It is available as a free ebook on the Apple Books store, or as a free download on the Steve Jobs Archive website. The site says the book will share Jobs’s perspective on “his childhood, on launching and being pushed out of Apple, on his time with Pixar and NeXT, and on his ultimate return to the company that started it all.” The content is drawn from notes and drafts that Jobs emailed to himself (some end with “sent from my iPad”), as well as excerpts from letters and speeches, interviews and photos — such as the Polaroid picture used as the front cover, which shows a young Steve Jobs in a tux, bow tie askew. The free, public version will be available as a digital download. While some physical copies are being produced for Apple and Disney DIS, Jobs was a Silicon Valley revolutionary who helped shape the way the world uses technology today, bringing Apple back from the brink of bankruptcy to become the first U.S. company to achieve $1 trillion market cap, and later passing $2 trillion. Under Jobs, Apple ushered in handheld devices like the iPod and iPhone that changed the way the world listens to music, browses the internet and communicates, and he pioneered touch-screen technology seen in the iPhone and iPad. MarketWatch named Jobs the CEO of the Decade in 2010.

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Is Lumentum Stock a Buy Now?

Lumentum's (NASDAQ: LITE) stock plunged nearly 10% on April 6 after the producer of optical chips and lasers posted its latest earnings report. For the second quarter of fiscal 2023, which ended on Dec.

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Is Lumentum Stock a Buy Now? Lumentum's (NASDAQ: LITE) stock plunged nearly 10% on April 6 after the producer of optical chips and lasers posted its latest earnings report. For the second quarter of fiscal 2023, which ended on Dec. Lumentum's (NASDAQ: LITE) stock plunged nearly 10% on April 6 after the producer of optical chips and lasers posted its latest earnings report. For the second quarter of fiscal 2023, which ended on Dec.

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The Super Rich Are Worried. Should You Be?

Sharply higher interest rates and the recent banking sector meltdown are making life difficult not only for common folk, but for masters of the universe, as...

MarketWatch

It was one of those Manhattan society soirees that suggests that all’s right with this cozy, wealthy world. The Boys’ Club of New York annual luncheon was honoring a lion of Wall Street, Julian Robertson, the late founder of hedge fund Tiger Management and his wife, Josie, for their 60-plus years of support. Held this past Tuesday at 583 Park Ave. (a 1923 landmark building and now an event space boasting “the highest staff-to-guest ratio in New York City”), the lunch raised some $2.5 million—much of it from sponsor Morgan Stanley (ticker: MS), with which Robertson had close ties. The entertainment (such as it is at this type of affair) was provided by a streak of so-called tiger cubs, acolytes of Robertson, who happen to be some of the most prominent hedge fund managers on the planet: moderator John Griffin, founder of Blue Ridge Capital, “in conversation” with Lee Ainslie, founder of Maverick Capital; Chase Coleman, founder of Tiger Global; and Robert Pitts, founder of Steadfast Capital. Griffin’s questioning was gentle, yet even so, there was more than a little left unsaid. Like the fact that a number of the cubs on stage and in the audience are licking their wounds from haywire economic conditions and a brutal stock market beatdown last year, especially the once-highflying Coleman, whose flagship funds lost some 50% last year, which contributed to a loss in assets in the neighborhood of $40 billion, mostly from long tech investments, as well as redemptions and asset valuation markdowns. Ironically, that decline dwarfs the roughly $15 billion that his mentor Robertson lost in assets in the late 1990s in part from shorting tech stocks, causing Robertson to shutter his funds. When asked by a 16-year-old Boys’ Club member which stocks to buy, Coleman told him that technology is interesting again and recommended that the young man buy the FAANGs—Facebook parent Meta Platforms (META), Amazon.com (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX), and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL). Ehhhh. Don’t let the abundance of high-end designer wear adorning the Wall Street spouses in attendance fool you. Despite a rebound in stocks in the first quarter, it isn’t like the environment is now any easier to navigate. Sharply higher interest rates and the recent banking sector meltdown are making life difficult not only for common folk but for masters of the universe, as well. Speaking with a group of the latter at an impromptu roundtable in a Midtown skyscraper, it’s clear that their world is actually not quite right. “Commercial real estate in Midtown Manhattan, the office market, is in the toilet,” says the scion of a major New York City real estate family. “That building and that building and that one,” he says pointing out the window, “you can see the vacancies, and it isn’t getting better.” Work from home, layoffs, rising rates, and mortgage refinancings coming due are all taking their toll. A Wells Fargo report this past week notes that the capitalization rate (a rate-of-return and risk indicator) for office properties spiked from 6.1% to 6.9% in the fourth quarter. “In our view, property valuations appear to have further to fall,” writes Wells senior economist Charlie Dougherty. “It’s like we’re all swimming in a fishbowl and God or whoever shakes it,” says a veteran Wall Street trader. “If you’re in the middle of the bowl, you’re OK. If you’re on the edge, in other words with lots of leverage or risk, you smash into the glass. That hurts. The water is still shaking, and I have no idea what the cost of risk-free capital is.” “It’s a goat rodeo,” adds a wealthy high-profile British investor who thinks we are “not at the midpoint yet” in the rate upcycle and ensuing problems. Amusing as it was to hear a Brit speak of rodeos—goat or otherwise—I was intrigued to hear that this investor, who owns a bank in the United Kingdom, is now looking to buy banks in the U.S., the prices of which are “beginning to look interesting.” Ah yes, the U.S. banking sector. No question that there is still sorting out to be done there. An academic paper, “Monetary Tightening and U.S. Bank Fragility in 2023: Mark-to-Market Losses and Uninsured Depositor Runs?” published last month warned that 186 banks “are at a potential risk of impairment to insured depositors” because of “asset exposure to a recent rise in the interest rates.” Guess what? Those problems haven’t gone away. Even if we are through the very worst of the bank jitters, we’re just now discovering how dicey it was in mid-March. Consider this from a little-noticed report put out this past Tuesday by the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York: “March 10, 2023, started...as a typically quiet Friday morning...with the usual low transaction volumes...[but] quickly became a full-throttled national liquidity crisis by early afternoon.” The following week was characterized by “market volatility not experienced since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis.” The national Home Loan Bank System issued a record $304 billion in liquidity for the week of March 13. Gulp. Meanwhile, in his voluminous (some 17,500 words) and more-interesting-than-usual annual letter to shareholders, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned lawmakers against a rush to regulate. He wrote that Silicon Valley Bank’s problems (“interest rate exposure, the fair value of held-to-maturity portfolios, and the amount of SVB’s uninsured deposits”) were “hiding in plain sight.” But, Dimon added, “the unknown risk was that SVB’s over 35,000 corporate clients—and activity within them—were controlled by a small number of venture-capital companies [that] moved their deposits in lockstep. It is unlikely that any recent change in regulatory requirements would have made a difference in what followed.” (My emphasis added.) To my mind, Dimon is essentially making the point that no amount of regulation can ever anticipate or mitigate humankind’s ability to make mistakes and get into trouble—intentionally or not. And that got me thinking about John Maynard Keynes and his notion of “animal spirits: “Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as a result of animal spirits—of a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities.” In other words, we human beings act irrationally, which makes for bursts of creativity in the arts and, yes, even on Wall Street, but inevitably precipitates overexuberance in capital markets and bank runs. It also means that there is probably some limit on the marginal utility of incremental units of regulation, I suppose. But does that mean we can never tame these spirits? I recently put that to Sallie Krawcheck, co-founder and CEO of Ellevest, an investing platform for women, as it pertains to our recent bank troubles. This isn’t Krawcheck’s first rodeo, of any sort. She was previously a bank analyst and head of research at Sanford Bernstein, then became CEO of Citigroup’s (C) Smith Barney unit, then chief financial officer of Citigroup, then head of that bank’s wealth management division, and later ran Merrill Lynch Wealth Management and U.S. Trust when they became part of Bank of America (BAC). Krawcheck noted that one possible, partial solution is to look at compensation. “Banks are bundles of risk that are leveraged, and we pay the executive in equity,” she says. “If you’re getting paid in equity, you typically want to take more risk to get the equity to go up. And generally, that’s the right thing to do because the economy grows, credit grows, and companies get started. Until it isn’t and until you hit some big downturn, like what we’ve seen. What if, instead, we said these are forms of utility and we paid some portion of compensation in bonds? And then your stance is, let me not take as much risk because all I’m getting is 100 cents on the dollar. I want to protect that as opposed to [getting] the downside. So, you could fundamentally shift how to compensate and fundamentally shift the risk-taking of the entity.” It’s far-fetched to believe Krawcheck’s plan would ever be legislated. (I can just hear the “Oh, it will reduce risk-taking” moaning.) And even if it were, some wily banker would figure out that issuing junk bonds could fill the risk/reward breach quite nicely. Stepping back a bit and speaking in my capacity as a charter member of the “first rough draft of history” club, I suspect that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is OK with how his credit-tightening cycle is going. After all, you don’t jack up the effective federal-funds rate from 0.08% to 4.83% in 12 months without knowing that you will break some eggs, particularly of the vulnerable financial institution variety. Getting bankers to pull in their lending horns, which will inhibit companies from expanding, which will slow them from hiring, which will put less money in the hands of consumers, which will make them spend less, which will put downward pressure on prices, is what he has in mind, no? If a few go-go hedge funds and outlier banks fail along the way, well, that kind of collateral damage is acceptable—as long as it isn’t systemic. I do wonder though, what Powell thinks of Chase Coleman telling a teenager to buy tech stocks right now. This is an ongoing state of affairs not likely to go away anytime soon. However—and with apologies to readers from New Jersey, as I’ve never been one of those fanatical Bruce Springsteen fans—I do think the Boss was on to something when he sang (in “Rosalita”) that “someday we’ll look back on this and it will all seem funny.” None of us are laughing yet, though. Not even the rich folks. Write to Andy Serwer at andy.serwer@barrons.com

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25 Gayest Cities in the World

In this piece, we will take a look at the 25 Gayest Cities in the World. For more cities, head on over to 10 Gayest Cities in the World. The rising trend of diversity and inclusion and acceptance for different sexual orientations is impacting the global economy positively. Several research papers have attempted to explain […]

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25 Gayest Cities in the World In this piece, we will take a look at the 25 Gayest Cities in the World. For more cities, head on over to 10 Gayest Cities in the World. The rising trend of diversity and inclusion and acceptance for different sexual orientations is impacting the global economy positively. Several research papers have attempted to explain this phenomenon. For instance, one paper from Rutgers University and the University of Massachusetts aims to establish a link between LGB (Lesbian, Gay, and Bisexual) inclusion and the gross domestic product (GDP). It uses regression and economic data from 132 countries for almost five decades to determine if more rights to gays lead to higher GDP output. The rights are determined through the Global Index on Legal Recognition of Homosexual Orientation (GILRHO), and the researchers found out that a 12.5% increase (one point increase on an eight point index) on the index led to $2,000 gains in GDP per capita. GDP per capita is the total economic output of a country divided by its population, and using the United States as an example, a $2,000 per capita gain leads to a whopping $663 billion addition to the GDP (assuming that the net addition is for the entire population and not just the gay people). This explanation is quite intuitive as well, since if gay people are accepted within society, they are more likely to land stable jobs and perform well in them - boosting their output and the broader economy as a result. Another paper investigating the economic impacts of LGBT inclusion comes from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). This study, done in partnership with the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), expands the focus to include people that are minorities in terms of both gender and sexual orientation. It also takes a look at how freedom to live for these people end up impacting the broader economy. The study shows that economically speaking, LGBT people are harmed through state suppression, police detention and extortion, workplace discrimination, mental health issues, and discrimination in learning institutions - all of which add up to impact their productivity and output. The research also uses GILRHO and adds to it the Transgender Rights Index (TRI) to measure the legal rights of LGBT folks, and initially concludes that a single point increase in rights leads to a $1,400 growth in GDP per capita. The conclusions reached by these studies become rather self evident if we take a look at patterns and trends of homelessness in America. Despite being the wealthiest and most technologically advanced nation in the world, America's laser focus on capitalism and failure to solve some of the fundamental issues of the society has led to devastating problems that see large chunks of its population unable to afford a roof over their head or find adequate employment. Data from the National Alliance to End Homelessness shows that as of 2020, there were 580,466 documented cases of homeless people in the U.S. Within this group, more than 40% of youth identify as LGBT or queer, a fourfold increase when compared to trends in the general population according to the World Economic Forum (WEF). Building on this, the WEF also highlights that gay and lesbian young people are also four times as likely to either contemplate or attempt suicide, showing the true human impacts that potential discrimination can have on people who otherwise deserve an equal shot at life. Moving away from the U.S. to one of the largest economies in the world, India, a report from the University of Massachusetts sheds more light on the costs of exclusion. Despite the fact that India is legally a secular state, the study starts by outlining that 41% of Indians would not want a gay neighbor, and 64% are unaccepting of homosexuality. Narrowing its focus on MSM (men who have sex with men) people, it points out high levels of poverty, with two thirds of MSM men in Chennai living on less than $1.50 per day in 2008. One of the best examples of the true potential of homosexuals when allowed to stretch their wings is Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)'s chief executive officer (CEO) Mr. Tim Cook. Mr. Cook is one of the most highly paid executives in the world, having raked in a cool $99 million in 2022. His tenure at Apple has seen the firm rise to become the largest technology company in the world. The CEO came out as gay in an opinion piece in Bloomberg in 2014, where he shared: Being gay has given me a deeper understanding of what it means to be in the minority and provided a window into the challenges that people in other minority groups deal with every day. It’s made me more empathetic, which has led to a richer life. It’s been tough and uncomfortable at times, but it has given me the confidence to be myself, to follow my own path, and to rise above adversity and bigotry. It’s also given me the skin of a rhinoceros, which comes in handy when you’re the CEO of Apple. T he world has changed so much since I was a kid. America is moving toward marriage equality, and the public figures who have bravely come out have helped change perceptions and made our culture more tolerant. Still, there are laws on the books in a majority of states that allow employers to fire people based solely on their sexual orientation. There are many places where landlords can evict tenants for being gay, or where we can be barred from visiting sick partners and sharing in their legacies. Countless people, particularly kids, face fear and abuse every day because of their sexual I don’t consider myself an activist, but I realize how much I’ve benefited from the sacrifice of others. So if hearing that the CEO of Apple is gay can help someone struggling to come to terms with who he or she is, or bring comfort to anyone who feels alone, or inspire people to insist on their equality, then it’s worth the trade-off with my own privacy. With these details in mind, it's time to take a look at some of the gayest cities in the world. Timothy Hodgkinson/Shutterstock.com Our Methodology To compile our list, we consulted a variety of different sources (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) to see which cities are gay friendly and have large gay populations. Each time a city appeared on a list, it was awarded a single point, and in case there were multiple cities with a single point, those with the highest population were picked out. If you're interested in more facts about gay cities and countries, check out Top 13 Countries with Biggest Gay Populations and 20 Most Gay Friendly Cities in the U.S. 25 Gayest Cities in the World 25. Vancouver, Canada Insider Monkey's Score: 1 Vancouver is one of Canada's most prosperous cities and has several gay friendly communities and attractions. 24. Brighton, England Insider Monkey's Score: 1 Brighton and Hove is a city in West Sussex, England. It has a high number of gay bars and clubs and also has a long history of being home to gay couples. 23. Oslo, Norway Insider Monkey's Score: 1 Oslo is the capital city of Norway. It is one of the oldest cities in the world and was founded during the Viking Age. 22. Brussels, Belgium Insider Monkey's Score: 1 Brussels is the capital city of Belgium, and one of the most prosperous and densely populated regions in the country. 21. Guadalajara, Mexico Insider Monkey's Score: 1 Guadalajara is one of the largest cities in North America and hosts one of the biggest pride parades in the world. 20. Montreal, Canada Insider Monkey's Score: 1 Montreal is Canada's second largest city in terms of population and an economic hub. 19. Auckland, New Zealand Insider Monkey's Score: 1 Auckland is one of New Zealand's large cities and the first in Oceania to legalize same-sex marriage. 18. Paris, France Insider Monkey's Score: 1 Paris is the capital of France and is one of the first in the world to elect a gay mayor. 17. Johannesburg, South Africa Insider Monkey's Score: 1 Johannesburg is South Africa's most populous city known for its pride events and gay film festivals. 16. Los Angeles, United States Insider Monkey's Score: 1 Los Angeles is an economic hub in America and is known for its gay bars, clubs, and other attractions. 15. Buenos Aires, Argentina Insider Monkey's Score: 1 Buenos Aires is Argentina's capital and holds a pride event each year. 14. Bangkok, Thailand Insider Monkey's Score: 1 Bangkok is Thailand's capital and is quite friendly to gay people especially due to Thai culture. 13. Dublin, Ireland Insider Monkey's Score: 2 Dublin is the capital of Ireland and it has several gay clubs and bars. 12. Melbourne, Australia Insider Monkey's Score: 2 Melbourne is one of Australia's largest cities and has gay film festivals, hotels, bars, and clubs. 11. Sao Paulo, Brazil Insider Monkey's Score: 2 Sao Paulo is Brazil's biggest city and one that holds the biggest pride celebration on the planet. Click to continue reading and see 10 Gayest Cities in the World. Suggested Articles: Disclosure: None. 25 Gayest Cities in the World is originally published on Insider Monkey.

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Apple All In On India With Mumbai Move

The maker of iPhones and iPads may have started out west in California's Los Alto back in 1976 but its sights are now set on the east with the 2023 opening of its first-ever Mumbai Apple store. Earlier this week, Apple revealed an image of a brightly-colored new retail location with the comment "Hello Mumbai." "We are getting ready to welcome you aboard our first store in India," the tech giant wrote.

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Apple All In On India With Mumbai Move The maker of iPhones and iPads may have started out west in California's Los Alto back in 1976 but its sights are now set on the east with the 2023 opening of its first-ever Mumbai Apple store. Earlier this week, Apple revealed an image of a brightly-colored new retail location with the comment "Hello Mumbai." "We are getting ready to welcome you aboard our first store in India," the tech giant wrote.

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5 Ways To Save Money on Digital Storage in Google Drive, Apple iCloud and More

Without fail, right before a picture-perfect vacation or family ceremony you want to remember forever, a message pops up on your iPhone informing you that you have run out of storage space and can't...

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5 Ways To Save Money on Digital Storage in Google Drive, Apple iCloud and More Without fail, right before a picture-perfect vacation or family ceremony you want to remember forever, a message pops up on your iPhone informing you that you have run out of storage space and can’t take any more photos or videos. Or, if you’re an email hoarder, you might get a memo from Google that you’re running out of space to save your communications just before you plan to launch a new newsletter. Of course, there’s the option to upgrade your storage, meaning you can pay to open up additional space, but it’s not the only thing you can do. Here are ways you can get more digital storage space within Apple iCloud or Google Drive while saving money. See: Check Your Pennies — They Could Be Worth $200,000 Find: 3 Signs You’re Serious About Raising Your Credit Score Clean Out Your Files If you’ve been holding onto emails and photos since 2005, it might be time to go through the archives and clean out what you no longer need. It’s important to know that video files take up more space than photos, voice-recorded messages are bulkier than regular texts and attachments add a ton of weight to emails, so you might want to start with those items. Phone apps also take up a bunch of memory, so if there are some you’re not using, it’s wise to delete them from your Android device or “offload” them from your iOS device. With offloading, the icons remain, and the apps reinstall automatically when you need them. Download to an External Drive As you clean out your files, if you notice that there’s still a large quantity you want to keep for posterity’s sake — but maybe don’t need on a daily basis — invest in an external hard drive and download your desired archives to the device. This will clear up space on your smartphone or in your email, allowing you to hold on to the memories. Empty the Trash If you delete something in your smartphone or email, it’s not really gone forever. Apple and Google tend to hang on to it — just in case. And this of course takes up space. Before you invest in more digital storage space, save your money by making sure that you’ve actually emptied the trash. That goes for spam in your email, too. This could add up to a good number of bytes you can add back. Get a Dropbox Account Dropbox is a free way to store your files if you want to clear some space on iCloud or Google Drive. You get up to 2 GB of space before you have to lock into a paid account. Take Our Poll: Would You Move for a Job That Paid You a $10,000 Signing Bonus? Print Your Photos This one goes old school, but one way to clear up a ton of space on your smartphone and cloud storage is to actually print your photos in order to hold on to them forever and then delete from your device. If you don’t have a printer, you can order prints online or from local retailers for just a few cents each. You might even find a fun new hobby with scrapbooking! More From GOBankingRates Financial Insight in Your Inbox: Sign Up for GBR's Daily Newsletter This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: 5 Ways To Save Money on Digital Storage in Google Drive, Apple iCloud and More

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Apple: Insiders Sell Their Shares, Future Prospects Not Promising

Insiders have sold over $40 million in shares of Apple since 3/22/2023. Apple is lagging in the AI race compared to Google and Microsoft. Read more on AAPL here.

SeekingAlpha

Apple: Insiders Sell Their Shares, Future Prospects Not Promising Summary - Insiders have sold over $40 million in shares of Apple since 3/22/2023. - Apple's largest supplier, Foxconn, reported a 21% decrease in sales and stated that sales would continue to decrease through Q1. - Low demand for VR headsets across market leaders gives a poor outlook for Apple's anticipated VR headset. - Apple is lagging in the AI race compared to Google and Microsoft. - Rising interest rates makes tech stocks less appealing for several reasons. Investment Thesis Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has seen over $40 million in insider sales as of 3/22/2023. I think the increase in insider selling is due to the company's poor economic outlook. Foxconn, Apple's largest supplier, reported earnings yesterday and displayed a 21% decrease in sales in March. Additionally, the VR market is seeing much lower than expected demand for VR headsets and could prove to be a hard sell when Apple rolls out their VR headset. Lastly, Apple is lagging in the AI race while interest rates continue to rise and hurt tech stocks. Insider Selling As of 3/22/2023, Apple insiders have sold over $40 million in shares of stock as seen below. Additionally, the members who are selling are key members of the management team such as Tim Cook (CEO) and Luca Maestri (CFO). Furthermore, this is Tim Cook's first sale of Apple stock in over two years. Usually when you see insiders selling at this high of an amount and this quickly, especially being the CEO and CFO, management's outlook for the stock has significantly deteriorated and you can assume the top may be in for Apple's stock for the time being. Foxconn Performance Foxconn is Apple's largest supplier, dubbed "iPhone City" by those familiar with the company. Since Foxconn has earnings ahead of Apple's earnings, Foxconn's earnings can provide us with valuable insight into the demand for Apple's products and overall demand for the industry. Foxconn reported earnings on 4/5/2023 and saw a 21% decrease in sales in March. Additionally, Foxconn's forward guidance is continued decreases in sales through Q1 2023. As Foxconn is the largest supplier of iPhones, a 21% decrease in sales gives some insight into potential decreased demand from Apple's customers. Additionally, Apple stopped giving forward guidance regarding its stock, so the information from Foxconn saying continued decreases can be expected can give us insight to demand from Apple customers since about 50% of Foxconn's revenues come from Apple alone. What I can gather from Foxconn's earnings is that Apple iPhones should see a continued decrease in demand into the next quarter as sales slow further. Rumored Virtual Reality Headset Tim Cook has teased customers with a VR headset in September of 2022, although not all of the details are confirmed yet. Multiple source say the Apple VR headset is going to be more expensive than other VR headset brands, coming in as high as $3,000. One of Apple's VR competitors is Meta's Quest Pro, whose original listing price was $1,500. Additionally, Meta had to drop the price to $1,000 to try to spur demand due to lower than anticipated sales since release. Additionally, Sony cut its PS VR2 production by 20% and Pico (China's Premier VR Brand) shipments were 40% less than expected. Apple rolling out their own VR headset right now cold prove to have a negative impact on the firm's bottom line. Lagging in AI race The hot topic as of lately in the tech space has been Artificial Intelligence. The most popular of the AI programs to come out lately has been ChatGPT, who is partnered with Microsoft. Other large tech companies have come out with AI applications, such as Google's Bard. Apple has been mostly quiet regarding the AI boom, having no comments on the subject to date. According to Precedence Research, the AI industry has the potential to be $1.59 trillion by 2030. Lagging in the AI race among competitors like Google and Microsoft can have Apple missing out on a very large emerging industry in tech. Tech and Interest Rates Tech stocks and interest rates are negatively correlated, as interest rates rise tech stock prices tend to decline. This can be seen in the chart below when prices fell from $360 to $274 after the first two rate hikes. As the Fed continues to raise interest rates, money becomes more expensive and loans that would have been taken out to expand operations may be delayed due to increased costs. Additionally, since interest rates have increased, fixed income starts to look more attractive when compared to risky equity investments. Risks Apple's stock is building lots of momentum as of recently, with their stock being up ~32% YTD. With tech stocks starting to show signs of recovery from rising interest rates, Apple's stock could continue this upward trend and increase in value. Additionally, Apple maintains one of the most impressive balance sheets amongst all public companies in terms of cash totaling $51.3 billion. A large safety net such as this can provide the company with the funds they need during a period of declining sales and profit. The market has been predicting the Fed to pivot for quite some time now. If the Fed were to pivot and keep interest rates flat or start to decrease them, I would expect this Tech crash to turn into a tech rally and tech stocks like Apple to increase in value. Conclusion Overall, I believe Apple is a "hold" as of now given the current circumstances surrounding the stock. With the CEO, CFO, as well as other notable employees selling over $40 million worth of stock in a matter of 2 and a half weeks is startling for any investor to see. I believe this change in managements perspective of Apple's future performance can be attributed to a couple of things; such as Foxconn's 21% decline in revenue, unanticipated decreases in VR demand, Apple lagging in the AI race, as well as rising interest rates. This article was written by Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body. Comments (133) 10:50:44 $ 160.65 100 10:50:44 $ 160.65 199 10:50:44 $ 160.65 101 10:50:44 $ 160.66 100 10:50:44 $ 160.67 100 10:50:44 $ 160.67 100 10:50:44 $ 160.67 100 10:50:44 $ 160.67 100 10:50:44 $ 160.67 100 10:50:44 $ 160.67 100 10:50:44 $ 160.66 100 10:50:44 $ 160.66 100 10:50:44 $ 160.66 100 10:50:44 $ 160.66 100 10:50:44 $ 160.66 100 10:50:44 $ 160.66 100 10:50:44 $ 160.66 100 10:50:42 $ 160.67 100 10:50:42 $ 160.6625 127 10:50:41 $ 160.66 100 -- "Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has seen over $40 million in insider sales as of 3/22/2023. I think the increase in insider selling is due to the company's poor economic outlook." -- **Really...you think the increase in insider selling is due to the company's poor economic outlook because of $40 million in insider sales within 2 1/2 weeks? Last year, on 09/30/22, 4 Apple executives, Katherine L. Adams, Jeffrey E. Williams, Maestri Luca and Deirdre O’Brien *each* sold 365,600 AAPL shares for a total of 1,462,400 shares...and they sold them at $138.20 which amounted to $202,103,680.00 total. That's *five* times the dollar value of the $40 million in insider sales by "the CEO, CFO, as well as other notable employees in a matter of 2 and a half weeks"...and it happened in one day!So, tell me, when Apple insiders sold 5 times the dollar amount of AAPL shares in one day, six months ago, that they sold over a 2 week period in 2023, did you worry that the dramatic increase in insider selling was "due to the company's poor economic outlook"?

AAPL

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These 2 Stocks Make Up 53% of Warren Buffett's $342 Billion Portfolio

Despite being fallible like every other investor, the Oracle of Omaha has outpaced the total return, including dividends, of the benchmark S&P 500 by a factor of 153 since becoming CEO in the mid-1960s -- a 3,787,464% return for Berkshire's Class A shares (BRK.A), versus 24,708% for the S&P 500, as of Dec. 31, 2022. Buffett has long believed that diversification is only necessary if you don't know what you're doing. As of the closing bell on April 4, 2023, Warren Buffett and his team oversaw a $342 billion investment portfolio containing 49 securities (47 stocks and two exchange-traded funds).

Yahoo

These 2 Stocks Make Up 53% of Warren Buffett's $342 Billion Portfolio Despite being fallible like every other investor, the Oracle of Omaha has outpaced the total return, including dividends, of the benchmark S&P 500 by a factor of 153 since becoming CEO in the mid-1960s -- a 3,787,464% return for Berkshire's Class A shares (BRK.A), versus 24,708% for the S&P 500, as of Dec. 31, 2022. Buffett has long believed that diversification is only necessary if you don't know what you're doing. As of the closing bell on April 4, 2023, Warren Buffett and his team oversaw a $342 billion investment portfolio containing 49 securities (47 stocks and two exchange-traded funds).

AAPL

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Dividend Growth Investing Like Peter Lynch

Although Peter Lynch wasn't explicitly a dividend growth investor, his principles and advice are highly applicable to a dividend growth strategy. Read more here.

SeekingAlpha

Dividend Growth Investing Like Peter Lynch Summary - Although Peter Lynch wasn't explicitly a dividend growth investor, his principles and advice are highly applicable to a dividend growth strategy. - Certain categories and sectors of stocks work better for dividend growth investors than others. - Lynch's advice from 30 years ago on investing through a bear market or recession is both simple and timeless. - Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at High Yield Landlord. Learn More » "The dividend is such an important factor in the success of many stocks that you could hardly go wrong by making an entire portfolio of companies that have raised their dividends for 10 or 20 years in a row." --Peter Lynch, "Beating The Street" Peter Lynch: famed manager of the highly successful Fidelity Magellan Fund from 1977 to 1990, author of bestselling investing books, and... dividend growth investor? Well, not really. Lynch never exclusively or even primarily focused on dividend stocks per se, but his investment strategy and philosophy are highly conducive to dividend growth investing. Back in December, I wrote an article titled "Dividend Investing Like Peter Lynch" that discussed how four of Lynch's key investing principles can be applied by DGIers: - Invest in what you know - Know what you invest in - Focus on growth at a reasonable price - Know what categories of stocks your portfolio is concentrated in Using that first article as an informational foundation, in this article I want to delve more into Peter Lynch's investing process and principles and explore how they can be useful to dividend growth investors in particular. The Best Categories of Stocks For Dividend Growth Investors Here's how I labeled many of my own dividend stock holdings in Lynch's six stock categories back in that December article: |Slow Growers||W. P. Carey (WPC), National Retail Properties (NNN), Spirit Realty (SRC), Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Enbridge (ENB), Conagra Brands (CAG), Unilever (UL), Verizon (VZ)| |Stalwarts||Agree Realty (ADC), Clearway Energy (CWEN.A), Crown Castle (CCI), Essential Properties Realty (EPRT), Medtronic (MDT), Brookfield Renewable (BEP), Mid-America Apartment (MAA)| |Fast Growers||NextEra Energy Partners (NEP), Medifast (MED), Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR), National Storage Affiliates (NSA), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), Snap-on (SNA), EastGroup Properties (EGP)| |Cyclicals||Avient Corporation (AVNT), Packaging Corporation of America (PKG), TotalEnergies (TTE), Whirlpool (WHR), Leggett & Platt (LEG)| |Turnarounds||Intel (INTC), Algonquin Power & Utilities (AQN)| |Asset Opportunities||VICI Properties (VICI), Armada Hoffler Properties (AHH), Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB)| In that last article, I didn't offer much commentary on this other than to point out that most of my holdings fall into the categories of "fast growers," "slow growers," and "stalwarts." I like it this way. In fact, add in the "cyclicals" category, and these four types of stocks are the primary, perhaps only, ones that DGIers should consider. Why not turnarounds? The two I listed in December were Intel (INTC) and Algonquin (AQN). Both stocks had already been beaten down by whirlwinds of bad news. Both businesses had gotten themselves in trouble for various reasons. But if management could navigate the storm, the turnarounds could generate massive returns! Turnaround stories always sound compelling and exciting. Intel is building semiconductor fabrication plants to help end the world's reliance on Taiwan for specialized chips! Algonquin is rapidly expanding its portfolio of tax credit-backed renewable energy assets that will save the world from becoming a giant fireball! But turnarounds are not easy. And dividends rarely survive them. After that article was written, both INTC and AQN cut their dividends, the former by 66% and the latter by 40%. When a company needs to turn things around in a major way, the dividend is often one of the most obvious ways to reset costs lower and preserve cash for investment. How about "asset opportunities"? The three I listed above as asset opportunities (VICI, AHH, and BHB) are not, upon further thought, really asset opportunities. The assets may be stronger than the market gives them credit for, but that doesn't mean the market has completely overlooked them. VICI and BHB are probably better categorized as stalwarts, while AHH is most likely a slow grower. A true asset opportunity is usually found in niche industries that few understand. Lynch cites the examples of miners, certain corners of oil & gas, newspapers, TV stations, and patented drugs. An obvious asset opportunity today might be EPR Properties (EPR). The REIT derives about 40% of revenue and 50% of NOI from movie theaters, which worries investors because of the continuing problems theater operators face today. But half of NOI and over half of revenue derives from other entertainment and experiential properties with fewer tenant issues. These include ski resorts, water parks, and Top Golf locations. One could certainly make the argument that, based on valuation, an investor who buys EPR today is basically just buying the non-theater assets and getting whatever upside remains from the theaters for free. That, in my estimation, is a true asset opportunity. But for the most part, long-term DGIers focused on safely and steadily compounding their total dividend income would do well to fish in other ponds besides asset opportunities. You might think that DGIers should avoid cyclicals as well, based on the elevated risk of dividend cuts during the down legs of whatever cycle in which they participate. But as illustrated by the example of Leggett & Platt (LEG), a Dividend King with a 51-year dividend growth record, companies operating in cyclical industries can certainly make consistent long-term dividend growers through conservative cash management and prudent capital allocation. I discussed this in my recent "Strong Buy"-rated article on LEG. Avoidance of Tech Stocks In 2000 (the peak year for the dot com bubble), Lynch wrote in the introduction of the Millennium Edition of "One Up On Wall Street": [S]o far the Internet has passed me by. All along I've been technophobic. My experience shows you don't have to be trendy to succeed as an investor. In fact, most great investors I know (Warren Buffett, for starters) are technophobes. They don't own what they don't understand, and neither do I. ("One Up On Wall Street" pg. 11) But while Lynch avoided the tech stocks that are driven higher by investor euphoria and FOMO, he wasn't at all ignorant about the benefits that come from technological innovations. The key point Lynch recognized is that "users of technology are the biggest beneficiaries of high-tech." As Lynch puts it elsewhere in the book: Instead of investing in computer companies that struggle to survive in an endless price war, why not invest in a company that benefits from the price war? ("One Up On Wall Street" pg. 142) I gave two examples of this (users rather than proprietors of technology) in a December article titled "Forget Robotics Stocks - Buy These 2 High Yield Stocks Instead." Given the seemingly permanent labor shortage now before us, robots and automation may very well become the next hot sector to invest in. But rather than buy the robot maker who has to compete on price with dozens of other players in this space, I'd prefer to own a REIT like W.P. Carey (WPC), which owns high-tech, Class A manufacturing facilities that make use of these robots. DGIers have another reason to be skeptical about owning the hottest tech stocks. There's the obvious reason that many of them, like Alphabet/Google (GOOG) and Meta/Facebook (META), don't pay dividends at all. Moreover, there are no indications that these companies are going to start paying dividends anytime soon. If you are disciplined about sticking to any particular investment strategy, you have to live with the fact that there will be some solid companies you don't own simply because they don't fit your strategy. But there are some venerated tech companies that do pay dividends but do not make good dividend growth investments. This may be controversial, so let me explain it. Take the example of Microsoft (MSFT). Few would dispute that this is one of the highest quality companies in the world by practically any metric you'd like to use. And it pays a regularly growing dividend! But MSFT still isn't a good dividend growth stock. Just think through the math. MSFT currently offers a very low dividend yield of 0.93%. Yes, you say, but the growth makes up for it! In the last ten years, MSFT's dividend has grown at a CAGR of 12%. If MSFT raises its dividend at the same pace over the next decade, buyers at today's price will end up with a 10-year yield-on-cost of... 2.9%. What if MSFT's dividend growth rate increases all the way to 20% per year? You'd still end up with a 10-year YoC of only 5.8%. Investors primarily concerned with generating strong total returns may do very well with MSFT. But those primarily concerned with optimizing their portfolio for dividend income will have to look elsewhere. The same goes for Apple (AAPL). This world-changing company sports a dividend yield of 0.56%. In the past decade, it has grown its dividend at a CAGR of 12.5%. If that same pace continued for the next decade, buyers today would end up with a 10-year YoC of 1.8%. That's about the same as what the S&P 500 (SPY) yields today! What if AAPL doubles its dividend CAGR to 25%? Buying today, you'd still only end up with a 10-year YoC of 5.2%. Again, I am not disputing AAPL's quality, nor do I necessarily think it's overvalued. But if one's goal is to retire in 10 or 15 years on their portfolio income without having to sell the principal, AAPL probably isn't the place to look. Lynch's Advice For Investing In Bear Markets If you define "bear market" as the period when the stock market falls at least 20% and has not yet regained a new high, then we've been in a bear market for about a year now. If you're anything like me, you spend most of the time during bull markets looking forward to bear markets, and most of the time during bear markets worrying about how bad things could get with your holdings. But if you have done your homework and chosen good businesses with strong balance sheets and enduring fundamentals, the real danger in losing money during bear markets comes from yourself. The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them. This point cannot be overemphasized. ("Beating The Street" pg. 36) Even some of the best companies see stock price declines during bear markets. A necessary skill of investors is the ability to sit on paper losses, even big ones, without selling, so long as the long-term investment thesis remains intact. And every long-term investment thesis must include the assumption of economic cycles: ups and downs in GDP growth, inflation, and interest rates. If you believe your holdings are resilient in the face of these swings, then you will have more of a mind to go on offense in scary times rather than remain on defense. A stock-market decline is as routine as a January blizzard in Colorado. If you're prepared, it can't hurt you. A decline is a great opportunity to pick up bargains left behind by investors who are fleeing the storm in panic. ("Beating The Street" pg. 306) This is why contrarianism is so celebrated in stock investing. If the market is euphoric and can't see any problems whatsoever, it's probably time to be cautious. If an investor feels a panicky urge to buy a stock right away because the price used to be $100 and now is up to $150, the market gods are trying to teach them a lesson about patience. If, on the other hand, an investor feels a panicky urge to sell because the price keeps dropping and, despite all research, can't see why, it may simply be a melodramatic mood swing in the market. This contrarian ability to be happy when the market is sad and sad when the market is happy played a big part in Lynch's success. Recessions, I figure, will always end sooner or later, and in a beaten-down market there are bargains everywhere you look, but in an overpriced market it's hard to find anything worth buying. ("Beating The Street" pg. 142) In conclusion, I believe Lynch's advice to DGIers would be: - Fish in the ponds that work best for your strategy. - Avoid the most popular, the most sexy, and the most cutting edge techy names about which people say that "valuation doesn't matter" or "just 1% of the total addressable market would represent massive growth." - Invest at the intersection of attractive yield and attractive growth. - When the bear smiles at you, don't run. Smile back. With Better Information, You Get Better Results… At High Yield Landlord, We spend thousands of hours and well over $50,000 per year researching real assets like REITs, infrastructure, pipelines, and renewable energy for the most profitable investment opportunities and share the results with you at a tiny fraction of the cost. We are the #1 rated service on Seeking Alpha with a perfect 5/5 rating. We are the #1 ranked service for Real Estate Investors with 2000+ members. Take advantage of the 2-week free trial and join our community of 2000+ "landlords" before we hike the price! This article was written by I write about high-quality dividend growth stocks with the goal of generating the safest, largest, and fastest growing passive income stream possible. My style might be called "Quality at a Reasonable Price" (QARP) in service to the larger strategy of low-risk, low-maintenance, low-turnover dividend growth investing. Since my ideal holding period is "lifelong," my focus is on portfolio income growth rather than total returns. My background and previous work experience is in commercial real estate, which is why I tend to heavily focus on real estate investment trusts ("REITs"). Currently, I write for the investing group, High Yield Landlord. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of WPC, NNN, EPD, KMI, ENB, CAG, UL, VZ, ADC, CWEN.A, CCI, EPRT, MDT, BEP, MAA, NEP, MED, IIPR, NSA, EGP, PKG, WHR, LEG, VICI, AHH, BHB either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body. Comments (39) Best Luck John Great investors & management should just be owned & not traded And depending on which stage of the investment lifecycle that an investor resides in, a simple handful ETFs portfolio can satisfy the criteria needed for each stage. Starting with five principles of investing that greatly increase the odds of investment and compounding success ( with academic research cited ):1) Holding period ( Seigel, Ellis ) hold equity assets for 20+ year periods https://imgur.com/a/0Th38G32) "Value" stocks ( Fama ) hold equity asset classes that have shown highest return premia in excess of risk free rate ( small & large cap value https://imgur.com/a/L3mXAl5 )3) Diversification ( Malkiel, Bessembinder ) hold a widely diversified portfolio of small and large value stocks by investing in passively managed, low expense, exchange traded value funds4) Fees. avoid annual wealth management AUM fees ( Sharpe, Malkiel ). If you absolutely have to use a wealth manager, pay hourly fees or not more than .25% fee annually5) Watch "behavior" . Trading / gambling effects, overconfidence, fear of missing out, loss aversion, etc. ( Shiller, Kahneman)For an investor in their "accumulation stage", a decent diversified low expense ETF portfolio falling under the guise of these principles, adds the Nasdaq 100 index (QQQ) to principles # 2 and 3: https://tinyurl.com/2wn5cvm6 .When the investor approaches / enters the "deccumulation" or "income" stage, they can transition out of the QQQ allocation, and into Berkshire Hathaway, as the addition of BRK to the "value" allocation ( as opposed to a duration asset allocation ) adds the unique conglomerate operations specific to BRK - those of which "thrown off" cash and which translates into a higher share price. Research shows that this portfolio has sustained between a "3.5% - 7%" inflation adj annual withdrawal rate ( "sale of shares", dividends internally reinvested ), accompanied by terminal portfolio growth, over eighteen rolling 20 year periods since 1986 https://tinyurl.com/3z5vnfyr . I believe it’s been shown that lower yielding, faster growing dividend stocks can payoff more than higher yielding, slower growth stocks.You can then convert to higher yielding securities when you get older. VIG, who I don’t own would be a good example for faster growing dividend stocks. I am 70, so I am past those days, but for a younger investor, faster growing dividend stocks could be good to own. You can own as long as you want

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Tim Cook shares a trick Steve Jobs used as Apple's CEO: It's 'one of the things I loved about him' 

At Apple, Steve Jobs held every employee to a rare standard, regardless of department — and it helped push the company forward, says CEO Tim Cook.

CNBC

Apple CEO Tim Cook shares one of Steve Jobs' best 'innovation' tricks: It's 'one of the things I loved about him' Since Tim Cook became CEO of Apple, he's worked to cement his own legacy — but he still admires his predecessor Steve Jobs' leadership style. "I knew I couldn't be Steve [when I became CEO]," Cook, 62, told GQ on Monday. "I don't think anybody could be Steve. I think he was a once-in-a-hundred-years kind of individual, an original by any stretch of the imagination. And so what I had to do was to be the best version of myself." But that doesn't mean Cook couldn't take a leadership trick or two from Jobs' book. In particular, Cook said he admired how Jobs held everyone at Apple to the same standard of creativity and boundary pushing — no matter whether they worked in engineering, marketing or any other department. "One of the things I loved about him was he didn't expect innovation out of just one group in the company or creativity out of one group," Cook said. "He expected it everywhere in the company." Cook experienced it firsthand. Before taking Apple's reins as CEO in 2011, he was the company's chief operating officer, overseeing the company's worldwide sales and operations. And in that role, he was expected to be inventive. "When we were running operations, we tried to be innovative in operations and creative in operations, just like we were creative elsewhere," Cook said. "We fundamentally had to be in order to build the products that we were designing." The concept helped Cook win over naysayers after he became CEO, some of whom said he wasn't enough of a "product guy" to fill Jobs' shoes. Under his leadership, Apple has grown into a multitrillion-dollar company. Cook oversaw the launch of Airpods, Apple Watch and the M1 processor, a next-generation chip now found in most of the company's newer products. Apple has also expanded its service-based offerings — most prominently including Apple TV+, its subscription media streaming platform. Cook couldn't have spearheaded any of those initiatives without learning from Jobs first, he said at Vox Media's 2022 Code Conference in Los Angeles: "He was the best teacher I ever had, by far. Those teachings live on, not just in me, in a whole bunch of people who are [at Apple]." Today, the Apple CEO still uses some of Jobs' old traditions, like 9 a.m. meetings every Monday, he told GQ. But it's not out of nostalgia, he added. "We don't really look back very much at all in history," Cook said. "We're always focused on the future and trying to feel like that we're very much sort of at that starting line where you can really dream and have big ideas that are not constrained by the past in some kind of way." DON'T MISS: Want to be smarter and more successful with your money, work & life? Sign up for our new newsletter! Take this survey and tell us how you want to take your money and career to the next level.

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SPDR ETF Report - Friday, April 7

Looking for stock market analysis and research with proves results? Zacks.com offers in-depth financial research with over 30years of proven results.

TalkMarkets

This page has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved or endorsed by the companies represented herein. Each of the company logos represented herein are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation; Dow Jones & Company; Nasdaq, Inc.; Forbes Media, LLC; Investor's Business Daily, Inc.; and Morningstar, Inc. Copyright 2023 Zacks Investment Research | 10 S Riverside Plaza Suite #1600 | Chicago, IL 60606 At the center of everything we do is a strong commitment to independent research and sharing its profitable discoveries with investors. This dedication to giving investors a trading advantage led to the creation of our proven Zacks Rank stock-rating system. Since 1988 it has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.17% per year. These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 15, 2023. Zacks Rank stock-rating system returns are computed monthly based on the beginning of the month and end of the month Zacks Rank stock prices plus any dividends received during that particular month. A simple, equally-weighted average return of all Zacks Rank stocks is calculated to determine the monthly return. The monthly returns are then compounded to arrive at the annual return. Only Zacks Rank stocks included in Zacks hypothetical portfolios at the beginning of each month are included in the return calculations. Zacks Ranks stocks can, and often do, change throughout the month. Certain Zacks Rank stocks for which no month-end price was available, pricing information was not collected, or for certain other reasons have been excluded from these return calculations. Visit Performance Disclosure for information about the performance numbers displayed above. Visit www.zacksdata.com to get our data and content for your mobile app or website. Real time prices by BATS. Delayed quotes by FIS. NYSE and AMEX data is at least 20 minutes delayed. NASDAQ data is at least 15 minutes delayed. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

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Intel Dividend Cut

Looking for stock market analysis and research with proves results? Zacks.com offers in-depth financial research with over 30years of proven results.

TalkMarkets

This page has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved or endorsed by the companies represented herein. Each of the company logos represented herein are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation; Dow Jones & Company; Nasdaq, Inc.; Forbes Media, LLC; Investor's Business Daily, Inc.; and Morningstar, Inc. Copyright 2023 Zacks Investment Research | 10 S Riverside Plaza Suite #1600 | Chicago, IL 60606 At the center of everything we do is a strong commitment to independent research and sharing its profitable discoveries with investors. This dedication to giving investors a trading advantage led to the creation of our proven Zacks Rank stock-rating system. Since 1988 it has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.17% per year. These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 15, 2023. Zacks Rank stock-rating system returns are computed monthly based on the beginning of the month and end of the month Zacks Rank stock prices plus any dividends received during that particular month. A simple, equally-weighted average return of all Zacks Rank stocks is calculated to determine the monthly return. The monthly returns are then compounded to arrive at the annual return. Only Zacks Rank stocks included in Zacks hypothetical portfolios at the beginning of each month are included in the return calculations. Zacks Ranks stocks can, and often do, change throughout the month. Certain Zacks Rank stocks for which no month-end price was available, pricing information was not collected, or for certain other reasons have been excluded from these return calculations. Visit Performance Disclosure for information about the performance numbers displayed above. Visit www.zacksdata.com to get our data and content for your mobile app or website. Real time prices by BATS. Delayed quotes by FIS. NYSE and AMEX data is at least 20 minutes delayed. NASDAQ data is at least 15 minutes delayed. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

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5 Predictable Stocks Warren Buffett and Baillie Gifford Agree On

Looking for stock market analysis and research with proves results? Zacks.com offers in-depth financial research with over 30years of proven results.

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This page has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved or endorsed by the companies represented herein. Each of the company logos represented herein are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation; Dow Jones & Company; Nasdaq, Inc.; Forbes Media, LLC; Investor's Business Daily, Inc.; and Morningstar, Inc. Copyright 2023 Zacks Investment Research | 10 S Riverside Plaza Suite #1600 | Chicago, IL 60606 At the center of everything we do is a strong commitment to independent research and sharing its profitable discoveries with investors. This dedication to giving investors a trading advantage led to the creation of our proven Zacks Rank stock-rating system. Since 1988 it has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.17% per year. These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 15, 2023. Zacks Rank stock-rating system returns are computed monthly based on the beginning of the month and end of the month Zacks Rank stock prices plus any dividends received during that particular month. A simple, equally-weighted average return of all Zacks Rank stocks is calculated to determine the monthly return. The monthly returns are then compounded to arrive at the annual return. Only Zacks Rank stocks included in Zacks hypothetical portfolios at the beginning of each month are included in the return calculations. Zacks Ranks stocks can, and often do, change throughout the month. Certain Zacks Rank stocks for which no month-end price was available, pricing information was not collected, or for certain other reasons have been excluded from these return calculations. Visit Performance Disclosure for information about the performance numbers displayed above. Visit www.zacksdata.com to get our data and content for your mobile app or website. Real time prices by BATS. Delayed quotes by FIS. NYSE and AMEX data is at least 20 minutes delayed. NASDAQ data is at least 15 minutes delayed. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. 5 Predictable Stocks Warren Buffett and Baillie Gifford Agree On Read full article here »

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Apple: Great Company But Likely Poor Investment For The Future

Apple has low growth going forward, and a successful encore is nearly impossible. Click here to see why AAPL stock is a Sell.

SeekingAlpha

Apple: Great Company But Likely Poor Investment For The Future Summary - Great company but has low growth going forward. - Strong market share in the US, but likely at its peak globally in a more cost-conscious market. - The iPhone is the most successful consumer product ever created in the entire universe. A successful encore is nearly impossible. - Valued like a double-digit grower, 4-6% growth is much more plausible. Investment Thesis Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is a tech giant, and the highest market capitalization stock traded on the stock market. The iPhone is the most successful consumer product ever created in the entire universe. A successful encore is nearly impossible. As the innovator of the smartphone, Apple has had unrivaled success and is a global powerhouse and dominant position the United States, especially with teenagers and young adults. Globally, around 1 billion people have an iPhone. Since the launch of the iPhone sales is estimated to have totaled $2 trillion. Apple is the most valuable company of all time, with a market cap of $2.6 Trillion. However, revenue and earnings growth has slowed to the 4-6% range. This slow growth is primarily a victim of "The Law of Large Numbers" and Apple's on success. Additionally, Apple has not been immune to COVID-19 supply chain chokepoints and a saturated smartphone market. Most of the developed world has a smartphone so business there is replacement only and few new features warrant an upgrade. In the developing world, fewer customers can afford the luxury of purchasing the status symbol of buying an iPhone. Nonetheless, Apple is still priced as a growth stock with a 27.8 PE (Price to Earnings ratio). Given that AAPL had a 12 PE in 2013 when its 8.6% 10-year CAGR revenue was still in front of them, we would not be surprised to see the PE fall to this level which would be more appropriate given its low forward expected growth. Apple has been one of the greatest investments of all time. I hope you own it and are in a position to sell or trim. I believe the stock will underperform over the next 5-10 years and do not own any shares. Outlook Consumer spending is expected to weaken in FY23. Apple's financial performance is heavily reliant on the success of their consumer products like the iPhone. Around 52% of revenue in FY22 came from iPhone sales, trailed by services which made up 20%. Additionally, iPhone sales have been flat in recent years, stagnating or declining since FY15. No other device Apple has produced has had the growth rate or sales of the iPhone. It is not even close as the iPhone is the most successful consumer product ever created in the entire universe. Apple's market share in the smartphone market ballooned to record highs in FY20, reaching 61% in the US. While investors had been hopeful of a similar trend in China with its emerging middle class, Apple has not been able to breach the 25% mark in market share since the iPhone launched in China in 2009. Additionally, despite iPhone sales stagnating, iPhone users have steadily grown. While this will increase the company's service revenue, it is clear that people are not as eager to buy brand-new iPhones every year as they have been in the past. There is room to grow in the service area, with AppleTV launching its subscription service. But the market is already saturated with everyone rolling out streaming services. Apple has only been able to breach just over 10% market share in this area. Apple has made no friends in the advertising space, with its strict rules around advertising and user tracking making it an unattractive platform to advertise on. While this has been applauded as pro-privacy and pro-consumer, it dulled their own ability to carve out a revenue stream. Apple is under scrutiny in the United States and Europe for competitive iPhone and MacOS ecosystem practices. Since 2019 Apple has been under investigation in the US on whether or not it suppresses third party apps in favor of its own. In Europe meanwhile, the entire MacOS ecosystem has been declared as a "threat to competition [utilizes] practices [that] effectively prevent them". Not only this, but the most downloaded app on iPhones today is TikTok, which has come under equally harsh scrutiny. It is not as though AAPL is not a financially healthy company, it has fantastic margins on every level and eyewatering levels of free cash flow yearly - nearly $100 billion. In 1Q23 AAPL repurchased $20 billion in stock but has been stingy on the dividend with only a 0.56% forward yield. We struggle to see why management would prioritize further repurchases instead of dividend expansion at these stock valuations. Our guess is the board is concerned a reasonable dividend would be like an announcement that Apple's growth days are behind it. Consistently spending $80 billion per year on repurchases and reducing outstanding share count by roughly 4% is not a sign of a company that believes that it has lots of opportunities to invest capital in areas that will match their existing business. That gets back to the core of the problem; no business is going to have the size and margins of Apple's hugely successful iPhone. While the financial robustness of Apple is hard to deny, we have growing concerns about the stagnation in earnings per share and revenue - especially in segments that used to be powerhouses. The company's market share has also not budged, and efforts to expand into streaming with AppleTV and Apple Music have faced steep competition. We no longer believe there is a likely long-term case for Apple from a growth investor's perspective and have removed it from our portfolio. This article was written by Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body. Comments (85) "have removed it from our portfolio". -- "In 1Q23 AAPL repurchased $20 billion in stock but has been stingy on the dividend with only a 0.56% forward yield. We struggle to see why management would prioritize further repurchases instead of dividend expansion at these stock valuations." -- **Sure...let's bitch about the "0.56% forward yield" dividend and ignore the fact that most tech companies pay no dividend at all. Let's also ignore the 2-1 stock split in 2005, the 7-1 split in 2014 and the 4-1 split in 2020 plus Apple's spectacular performance over the last two decades...in spite of articles stating that Apple's growth was over. The 236 AAPL shares my wife and I purchased in December of 2000 for $15.32/share have become 13,216 shares with a split-adjusted cost basis of $0.27/share. Should I also complain about Apple dividend's "0.56% forward yield"? 😎 Apr 07, 2023 09:53 AM | Apple Inc.(AAPL) Sold all my AAPL last week. Great profit! Now wait for correction.

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Tech Stocks Have Been on Fire. Earnings Could Spell Trouble.

The first quarter was a profitable one for tech stocks, but now Big Tech has to report earnings—and investors might not love what they see.

MarketWatch

Ah, April. The crack of the bat. The smell of fresh-cut grass. The frantic search for year-old receipts. And the sound of conference calls ringing in the air. It’s baseball season. It’s tax season. And even better, it’s first-quarter earnings season. The first quarter of 2023 was a remarkably profitable one for tech investors, helping to turn the corner on a nightmarish 2022. Stocks that were pummeled last year have rebounded with strong gains. The seven tech companies with market values above $500 billion— Apple (ticker: AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), and Meta Platforms (META)—have each rallied at least 20% in 2023, outstripping a 7% gain for the S&P 500 index. Investors think the Federal Reserve is nearly finished tightening monetary policy—and they anticipate steady and then declining rates. As a result, miserable first-quarter results—and they almost certainly are going to be pretty bad—might not matter. You could see that dynamic in the recent earnings report from memory-chip producer Micron Technology (MU). With PC and smartphone demand flagging—and many customers oversupplied with inventory—Micron’s financial results cratered. For its quarter ended March 2, Micron’s revenue plunged 53% from a year earlier. But Micron said customers are cleaning up their inventory issues and predicted that results will show sequential growth from here. By 2025, Micron said, its total addressable market would be at a record level, aided by growth in automotive and industrial applications. “It was a tough quarter, but we are seeing good, positive signs for the future,” Sumit Sadana, Micron’s chief business officer, tells me. Read More I suspect that’s going to be the theme running through first-quarter earnings season: Conditions aren’t great, but they should get better soon. The question is how much improvement has already been discounted in stocks—after buying the rumor, it might be time to sell the news. Here are some key questions and themes to look for in the weeks ahead. The New Netflix. The streaming-video service kicks off tech earnings season on April 18 with a quarter that will mark a fundamental shift in its reporting practices. Starting with the 2022 fourth quarter, Netflix (NFLX) stopped providing specific guidance on subscriber growth—although it will still report its total subscribers at the end of the quarter. That could lead to surprises around subscriber numbers and more volatility for the stock. Meanwhile, investors will be looking for signs of progress on the company’s two big initiatives—advertising and a crackdown on password sharing. Netflix has projected “modest” positive net subscriber growth in the quarter, with revenue of $8.2 billion—growing just 4%—and profits of $2.82 a share. Another change: This will be the first call without Reed Hastings, who last quarter gave up the CEO role to become executive chairman. The Year of Efficiency, Part III. Shares of Meta Platforms have surged nearly 80% this year, thanks to CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s decision to placate investors and rein in spending. Meta, which operates Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, cut 11,000 jobs shortly after a poorly received third-quarter earnings report, and recently chopped 10,000 more. On the last Meta earnings call, Zuckerberg declared 2023 to be “the year of efficiency,” talked up artificial intelligence, and largely ignored the metaverse, the initiative that he once considered so important that he changed the company’s name. Meta investors will be looking for updates on efficiency moves—and any evidence that they will spur the company’s sagging growth. Wall Street sees a 1% year-over-year first-quarter revenue dip, reflecting a still weak advertising market. Shareholders await updates on monetizing Reels, the company’s TikTok competitor, particularly given recent pressure in Washington to ban TikTok. Zuckerberg will surely continue to talk about AI, and probably not so much about the metaverse. Thin Cloud Cover. Amazon shares have rallied 24% this year, and Microsoft is up 20%—no thanks to their cloud businesses. Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure continue to dominate cloud computing, but both have suffered a multiquarter deceleration, as customers tighten budgets. This past week, research firm IDC trimmed its 2023 enterprise spending forecast for the fifth month in a row. According to FactSet, analysts see March-quarter AWS growth of 17%, down from 20% in December and 27% in September; for Azure, consensus estimates call for 28% growth, down from 31%, 35%, 40%, and 46% growth, respectively, over the four prior quarters. But as with Micron, the thinking on the Street is that things get better from here—that recession or no, the transition to cloud computing will continue. There are some near-term worries: for Microsoft, soft PC demand; for Amazon, sluggish online-shopping growth. Cashing Out. Apple is almost certainly going to raise its dividend and expand its stock-buyback program when the company reports next month. But there are tough questions for Apple about reviving growth. Wall Street sees revenue declining 4% in the March quarter and 1% for the full year. This past week, Apple contract manufacturer Foxconn said it expected business to decline in the second quarter. For Apple investors, the focus is on this fall’s release of the iPhone 15 and, before that, an expected launch of virtual- and mixed-reality products. The outstanding question is how Apple is planning to take advantage of AI. I’ll have to ask ChatGPT. Write to Eric J. Savitz at eric.savitz@barrons.com

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A new Steve Jobs book of speeches, interviews and photos will be free to download ��� here`s where to get it��

Looking for stock market analysis and research with proves results? Zacks.com offers in-depth financial research with over 30years of proven results.

MarketWatch

This page has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved or endorsed by the companies represented herein. Each of the company logos represented herein are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation; Dow Jones & Company; Nasdaq, Inc.; Forbes Media, LLC; Investor's Business Daily, Inc.; and Morningstar, Inc. Copyright 2023 Zacks Investment Research | 10 S Riverside Plaza Suite #1600 | Chicago, IL 60606 At the center of everything we do is a strong commitment to independent research and sharing its profitable discoveries with investors. This dedication to giving investors a trading advantage led to the creation of our proven Zacks Rank stock-rating system. Since 1988 it has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.17% per year. These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 15, 2023. Zacks Rank stock-rating system returns are computed monthly based on the beginning of the month and end of the month Zacks Rank stock prices plus any dividends received during that particular month. A simple, equally-weighted average return of all Zacks Rank stocks is calculated to determine the monthly return. The monthly returns are then compounded to arrive at the annual return. Only Zacks Rank stocks included in Zacks hypothetical portfolios at the beginning of each month are included in the return calculations. Zacks Ranks stocks can, and often do, change throughout the month. Certain Zacks Rank stocks for which no month-end price was available, pricing information was not collected, or for certain other reasons have been excluded from these return calculations. Visit Performance Disclosure for information about the performance numbers displayed above. Visit www.zacksdata.com to get our data and content for your mobile app or website. Real time prices by BATS. Delayed quotes by FIS. NYSE and AMEX data is at least 20 minutes delayed. NASDAQ data is at least 15 minutes delayed. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. A new Steve Jobs book of speeches, interviews and photos will be free to download ��� here`s where to get it�� Read full article here »

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Nicholas Ward's Dividend Growth Portfolio: Special Fixed Income Edition

My passive income stream grew by 22.63% in February and by 46.87% in March. Read more as I review my February and March results in this piece.

SeekingAlpha

Nicholas Ward's Dividend Growth Portfolio: Special Fixed Income Edition Summary - I'm reviewing my February and March results in this piece. - My passive income stream grew by 22.63% in February and by 46.87% in March. - Due to rising rates, during 2023 I've added exposure to fixed income in my portfolio for the first time. - Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of The Dividend Kings get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios. Learn More » Hello everyone… we’ll start this special edition portfolio review off with the normal introduction: Another [two] month[s] another step[s] towards financial freedom. Why was the February recap skipped, you may be wondering? Primarily because I was on vacation last month and that cut into my time to work on Seeking Alpha articles. My family had a wonderful vacation in Florida. My wife and I took the kids to Disney World for the week, spent the weekend at Grandma’s in Tampa, and then I had business meetings down in the Delray/West Palm areas for a few days. All in all, it was a wonderful time. It was nice to have a short break from work. Despite all of the clamoring about the “magic being lost” from Disney, the entire family still loved it. Being in the “Disney bubble” really allows you to forget about the troubles of the outside world and focus on silly things like which princesses you’re going to meet with your toddler. There were a few days where I didn’t even check up on my watch lists. It was all very refreshing. And with regard to south Florida, all I have to say is this: I’m jealous of the people who live here. I am grateful that hurricanes aren’t a threat where I live, but it was beautiful and 30 degrees warmer than Virginia, which was a nice change of pace. And I guess I’m always going to be a sucker for the silhouette of palm trees in front of a setting sun. But, the delay wasn’t just about vacation. I could have crammed it in sometime last month, but I was also happy to wait on the portfolio updates because I made significant changes to my asset allocation during February and March and I wanted to allocate the proper time/energy to discussing them. For the first time ever in my portfolio management career, I invested into fixed income assets. The rapidly rising rates finally pushed the risk/reward into my favor and now that it's possible to generate 4%+ using relatively risk-free assets, I transitioned the vast majority of my cash savings into those income generating vehicles. With that in mind, you’ll see a very significant bump to my passive income during the past two months and moving forward, I expect these decisions to result in 2023 being one of, if not my very best year ever, in terms of year-over-year passive income growth. I couldn’t be happier to use these fixed income/money market funds as an accelerant to the compounding process that serves as the bedrock of my investment strategy. I don’t know how long rates are going to stay high. But, in the meantime, I’m pleased to take advantage of the opportunities that the hawkish Fed is presenting. As I’ve said many times before, my success in the markets revolves around my ability to be fearful when others are greedy, to be thankful for opportunities, and to take what the market gives me. This is what I’ve done throughout 2023 thus far and I couldn’t be happier with the results. February/March Passive Income After a relatively tepid y/y dividend growth in January of 9.56% (9.5% isn’t terrible, but I’d much rather see dividend compound at a double digit clip), my February and March results were much stronger. In February my y/y dividend growth rate was 22.63%. This pushed my year-to-date growth rate up to 16.34% on a y/y basis. In March my dividend growth rate accelerated to 46.87%, which is the best results in years (narrowly beating out my December 2022 result of 46.50%). After March’s big gains my year-to-date y/y growth rate grew to 28.55%. And, like I said in the introduction, due to the additions of several fixed income/money market funds which are likely to carry significant weightings in my portfolio for the foreseeable future, I think 2023’s year end dividend growth results could end up being in the 25-30% range. With regard to the compounding process, I had fun over the weekend comparing my Q1 2023 dividend results to years in the past. During the first three months of 2023 my portfolio generated more passive income than I did in the entire year of 2016. March of 2023 was my biggest month ever in terms of passive income. I began tracking my dividend growth results closely in 2014. March of 2023’s total was 72% of my entire 2014 dividend haul. At my expected rate of compounding, it’s possible that one of my biggest months next year (likely my December haul) will be larger than the dividends that I generated during my first year as a DGI investor. I understand that these statistics are all meaningless to you, the reader, but the point is this: compounding works. It snowballs over time. And, anyone who is diligent about living below their means, regularly allocating savings towards the market, selecting blue chip dividend growth stocks, and consistently re-investing their dividends can create a situation where their passive income stream evolves from a trickle to a roaring river as well. Generating Higher Yields on my Cash Position As regular readers know, I tend to maintain a cash position in the 5-7% range. I want to know that I can take advantage of irrational weakness in the market if it occurs and even though inflation is eating away at those funds, that’s a level that allows me to sleep well at night. On top of that cash, I have my bear market buckets as well. Throughout the sell-off that we’ve seen over the last 18 months or so, I used my -10%, -15%, -20%, and -25% buckets (when the S&P 500 hit those levels from its all-time intraday high). That means that I still have my -30%, -35%, -40%, and -45% buckets ready to go. Once again, I understand that there is an opportunity cost of holding that cash; however, during past sell-offs I’ve noticed that far too many investors blow through all of their dry powder in the early days of sell-offs and therefore, I put that plan in place to ensure that I would have the capability to capitalize on deep market sell-offs (because I know that crashes like that are when investors can make moves that truly change the long-term trajectory of their financial journeys). Finally, on top of those cash positions I have my family emergency funds. Depending on what financial experts you listen to, it’s deemed prudent to maintain 3-6 months of living expenses in cash as an emergency savings fund to help to weather an unpredictable financial storm (being laid off, an unexpected medical emergency, a leaky roof that has to be fixed, what have you) and due to my relatively conservative mindset, I’ve maintained a 6 month cushion for years. That’s been a pretty significant pile of cash sitting on the sidelines in a relatively unproductive manner for a while now. I’ve banked with Bank of America since college and in general, I’ve been happy with their services. However, even with their reward programs and incentives, I was only generating 0.04% APY on my cash in their savings accounts. For the longest time we were living in a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) environment and therefore, that measly yield didn’t bother me. The unproductive cash was just a cost of doing business when it came to the conservative management of my household’s balance sheet. At the end of the day, sleeping well at night with my finances was worth it…even if savers were being hosed. Thankfully all that has changed in recent months. We’ve seen rates on short-term treasury notes rise at an unprecedented pace and this has created opportunities for savers. So, a couple of months ago I decided to begin transitioning the vast majority of my cash holdings into higher yielding investment vehicles which, in my opinion, could be deemed “cash equivalents” due to their relatively low risks. On February 21, 2023 I initiated stakes in the WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury Fund ETF (USFR) at $50.40. USFR currently sports a SEC 30-day yield of 4.78%. The fund’s expense ratio is just 0.15%. So to me, going with a short-term treasury ETF like this was a lot easier than building bond ladders myself and as always, it’s nice to have the liquidity of a low cost ETF in place. Also on 2/21/2023 I initiated a stake in the SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Months T-Bill ETF (BIL) at $91.63. BIL currently offers a SEC 30-day yield of 4.50% and a gross expense ratio of just 0.1354%. Once again, I was pleased to go the ETF route here instead of buying short-term bonds directly from the government or my brokerage. These expense ratios are more than a fair price to pay for the ease of exposure to short-term treasuries, in my opinion. These two purchases replaced my bear market cash buckets; now, in the event of a market sell-off which triggers through -30%, -35%, -40%, or -45% purchases, I will liquidate these funds to raise cash to make them. I think the risk of capital losses here is minimal and in the meantime, I’m generating 4.5%+ yields on cash that was previously generating 0.04%. More recently, on 3/9/2023, I transitioned my emergency cash holdings from my savings account into a Fidelity account with a “core holding” of FZFXX, which is the Fidelity Treasury Money Market Fund. As of 3/31/2023, FZFXX had a 7-day yield of 4.46%. I feel comfortable using this fund as a cash equivalent and once again, I’m extremely happy to be generating nearly 4.5% on cash that was previously yielding nearly 0.04%. As you’ll see in a moment, these are now relatively significant positions within my portfolio; especially FZFXX, which is now my second largest holding. In short, I turned roughly 7% of my portfolio from an essentially zero-yielding asset into various high yielding assets while taking on minimal risk. This is the benefit of rising rates and moving forward, these moves are going to result in significant y/y dividend growth figures over the next year or so. February/March Stock Purchases Since I just spilled so much ink discussing my fixed income/money market moves, rather than highlighting my prior trade reports for each equity trade that I made during the last couple of months, I’m going to quickly list them. Please don’t hesitate to ask about any specific trades that you see in the comment section below; I’m happy to discuss them and/or copy & paste my original trade reports that Dividend Kings subscribers received in real-time when I made these moves. I just didn’t want to copy/paste all of those words here because it would have turned this article into a novella of sorts. So, with that being said, here’s the list in chronological order… February: 2/01/2023: bought Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR) at $151.04 2/01/2023: bought Essex Property Trust (ESS) at $226.23 2/01/2023: bought Diageo (DEO) at $177.96 2/01/2023: bought Palantir (PLTR) at $7.96 2/01/2023: bought Republic Services (RSG) at $123.29 2/01/2023: bought EcoLab (ECL) at $153.93 2/06/2023: sold Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) at $81.40 2/13/2023: bought UnitedHealth Group (UNH) at $492.74 2/14/2023: sold Roper (ROP) at $431.89 2/14/2023: bought Brookfield Infrastructure Corp. (BIPC) at $43.41 2/16/2023: trimmed Cisco (CSCO) at $51.18 2/16/2023: bought Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) at $68.99 2/16/2023: bought Royal Bank of Canada (RY) at $103.27 2/23/2023: trimmed British American Tobacco (BTI) at 38.27 2/23/2023: bought Owl Rock Capital Corp. (ORCC) at $13.72 2/23/2023: bought Linde (LIN) at $331.09 2/23/2023: bought CME Group (CME) at $187.37 2/28/2023: trimmed Altria (MO) at $46.60 2/28/2023: bought Owl Rock Capital Corp. at $13.72 2/28/2023: bought Broadridge Financial Solutions at $141.03 March: 3/01/2023: bought Broadridge Financial Solutions at $140.57 3/01/2023: bought Republic Services at $128.43 3/01/2023: bought UnitedHealth Group at $477.27 3/01/2023: bought CME Group at $184.84 3/01/2023: bought S&P Global (SPGI) at $341.92 3/01/2023: bought Palantir at $7.85 3/02/2023: trimmed Salesforce (CRM) at $189.05 3/02/2023: bought Danaher (DHR) at $244.71 3/07/2023: trimmed Meta Platforms (META) at $186.44 3/07/2023: sold Meta Platforms at $186.61 3/08/2023: bought UnitedHealth Group at $469.86 3/10/2023: bought CME Group at $174.85 3/10/2023: bought Broadridge Financial Solutions at $136.88 3/13/2023: bought Toronto-Dominion Bank at $59.32 3/13/2023: bought Royal Bank of Canada at $95.08 3/27/2023: bought Toronto -Dominion Bank at $57.81 3/27/2023: bought Royal Bank of Canada at $93.55 3/31/2023: bought Thermo Fisher (TMO) at $569.17 3/31/2023: bought UnitedHealth Group at $472.32 3/31/2023: bought Camden Property Trust (CPT) at $103.88 Nicholas Ward’s Dividend Growth Portfolio | | Core Dividend Growth |56.55%| |Company name||Ticker||Cost basis||Portfolio Weighting| |Apple||AAPL||$24.26||13.07%| |Microsoft||MSFT||$72.84||4.06%| |Broadcom||AVGO||$234.30||3.11%| |Starbucks||SBUX||$48.10||1.92%| |Qualcomm||QCOM||$76.44||1.91%| |BlackRock||BLK||$413.84||1.73%| |Johnson and Johnson||JNJ||$114.02||1.59%| |Comcast||CMCSA||$38.54||1.43%| |Cummins||CMI||$217.77||1.38%| |Merck||MRK||$73.71||1.37%| |Lockheed Martin||LMT||$354.14||1.37%| |Raytheon Technologies||RTX||$80.22||1.36%| |PepsiCo||PEP||$97.58||1.27%| |Bristol Myers Squibb||BMY||$49.47||1.17%| |Brookfield Infrastructure||BIPC||$31.06||1.06%| |Deere & Co.||DE||$347.85||1.04%| |Texas Instruments||TXN||$106.72||1.03%| |Cisco||CSCO||$23.80||0.99%| |Coca-Cola||KO||$40.25||0.94%| |Honeywell||HON||$126.18||0.91%| |Brookfield Renewables||BEPC||$33.49||0.91%| |Parker-Hannifin||PH||$255.96||0.88%| |Amgen||AMGN||$136.07||0.88%| |Essex Property Trust||ESS||$223.54||0.76%| |Illinois Tool Works||ITW||$130.90||0.78%| |L3Harris Technologies||LHX||$192.50||0.75%| |Ecolab Inc.||ECL||$143.58||0.66%| |Brookfield Corporation||BN||$29.89||0.64%| |Diageo||DEO||$130.66||0.61%| |AvalonBay Communities||AVB||$163.23||0.57%| |Medtronic||MDT||$74.84||0.54%| |Broadridge Financial Services||BR||$145.57||0.52%| |Air Products and Chemicals||APD||$234.91||0.52%| |Camden Property Trust||CPT||$114.59||0.48%| |Northrop Grumman||NOC||$376.97||0.48%| |Prologis||PLD||$118.30||0.45%| |Hershey||HSY||$213.40||0.41%| |Sherwin Williams||SHW||$219.30||0.36%| |Rexford Industrial Realty||REXR||$51.90||0.35%| |Stanley Black & Decker||SWK||$139.75||0.35%| |Alexandria Real Estate||ARE||$130.96||0.33%| |Republic Services||RSG||$123.71||0.30%| |Hormel||HRL||$42.99||0.29%| |Digital Realty||DLR||$49.87||0.26%| |Linde||LIN||$331.10||0.24%| |McCormick||MKC||$35.71||0.23%| |Mid-America Apartments||MAA||$163.02||0.17%| |Carlisle Companies||CSL||$237.18||0.12%| |Automatic Data Processing||ADP||$227.52||<0.10%| |McDonalds||MCD||$232.10||<0.10%| |Waste Management||WM||$161.37||<0.10%| |High Yield||11.40%| |Realty Income||O||$62.34||2.05%| |British American Tobacco||BTI||$37.50||1.24%| |W. P. Carey||WPC||$65.23||1.24%| |AbbVie||ABBV||$79.08||1.22%| |Agree Realty||ADC||$65.85||1.09%| |Enbridge||ENB||$39.33||1.07%| |Toronto Dominion Bank||TD||$65.06||0.64%| |Crown Castle||CCI||$140.53||0.63%| |Altria||MO||$44.30||0.62%| |Federal Realty Investment Trust||FRT||$114.86||0.54%| |National Retail Properties||NNN||$36.57||0.50%| |Royal Bank of Canada||RY||$100.18||0.32%| |Verizon||VZ||$45.20||0.24%| | | High Dividend Growth |10.71%| |Visa||V||$86.42||2.34%| |Nike||NKE||$62.68||1.52%| |Lowe's||LOW||$148.99||1.48%| |MasterCard||MA||$90.44||0.95%| |Home Depot||HD||$250.58||0.87%| |Intercontinental Exchange||ICE||$97.23||0.60%| |S&P 500 Global||SPGI||$334.29||0.47%| |UnitedHealth Group||UNH||$481.67||0.45%| |Domino's Pizza||DPZ||$355.20||0.41%| |Booz Allen Hamilton||BAH||$75.49||0.36%| |Accenture||ACN||$271.18||0.36%| |ASML Holding||ASML||$643.47||0.25%| |Danaher||DHR||$245.62||0.23%| |Carrier||CARR||$32.67||0.22%| |Thermo Fisher||TMO||$568.76||0.20%| |Non-Dividend||6.82%| |Alphabet||GOOGL||$44.34||3.95%| |Amazon||AMZN||$88.17||1.68%| |Adobe||ADBE||$439.36||0.66%| |Chipotle||CMG||$1,298.41||0.20%| |Salesforce||CRM||$233.58||0.18%| |PayPal||PYPL||$201.72||0.15%| |Palantir||PLTR||$11.90||<0.10%| | | Special Circumstance |6.89%| |NVIDIA||NVDA||$37.19||2.00%| |Walt Disney||DIS||$91.92||1.59%| |Blackstone||BX||$95.86||0.93%| |Owl Rock Capital||ORCC||$13.64||0.82%| |Main Street Capital||MAIN||$39.25||0.41%| |CME Group||CME||$183.92||0.35%| |Constellation Brands||STZ||$172.19||0.27%| |Ares Capital Corp.||ARCC||$17.04||0.26%| |Brookfield Asset Management||BAM||$23.67||0.15%| |Otis||OTIS||$58.65||0.11%| | | Cash Equivalents |7.06%| |Fidelity Treasury Money Market Fund||FZFXX||$1.00||4.68%| |WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury Fund ETF||USFR||$50.40||1.59%| |SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Months T-Bill ETF||BIL||$91.63||0.79%| |Crypto||Diversified Basket||n/a||0.40%| |Cash||0.02%| |Most||Recent||Update:||4/5| Conclusion Despite recent negative volatility, I continue to look forward to what 2023 has in store. Due to my long-term time horizon I am always happy when I see blue chip dividend growth stocks go on sale because buying low accelerates the compounding process. In recent days there has been major weakness in the Industrials sector, in general, and there are many companies in that area of the market that I’d love to accumulate. There’s always a bargain to be found somewhere… and now that interest rates are so high, even if my stock watch list runs dry I can happily park cash in short-term bonds or money market funds and generate 4-5% while I wait for wonderful opportunities to arise. That’s a win-win for an income oriented investor like me. Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks. Dividend Kings helps you determine the best safe dividend stocks to buy via our Master List. Membership also includes - Access to our model portfolios - real-time chatroom support - Our "Learn How To Invest Better" Library Click here for a two-week free trial so we can help you achieve better long-term total returns and your financial dreams. This article was written by University of Virginia, class of 2011 B.A English Senior Investment Analyst at Wide Moat Research. Contributor for Safe High Yield, The Dividend Kings, iREIT, and The Forbes Real Estate Investor. I am also the former editor-in-chief and portfolio manager at The Intelligent Dividend Investor. Check out my youtube channel for other investing ideas: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP7AhF_TqJSE7fN7CFwxKlg?view_as=subscriber Ranked #18 overall blogger by TipRanks for 2014. Former contributor at TheStreet.com (where I cover stocks held in Jim Cramer's Action Alert PLUS Charitable Trust Portfolio), Investing Daily, and Sure Dividend. Former Editor-in-Chief of The Dividend Growth Club and The Income Minded Millennial. I am a young investor focused primarily on dividend growth stocks. Seeking Alpha, and more specifically, the dividend and income community that exists here, has played a significant role in my development as a portfolio manager. I am not a professional, though I do manage my family's finances. I enjoy the process; the research, the decision making, the strategic planning...and not paying a financial adviser to do the work for me. I've built what I believe to be a conservative, diverse, and balanced dividend growth portfolio currently consisting of ~60 positions. At the end of every month I break down the portfolio in my Nicholas Ward's Dividend Growth Portfolio Updates. Thus far, I've been able to meet by goals from income, income growth, and capital appreciation standpoints. I use a wide variety of metrics, both fundamental and technical, when establishing fair value when doing my due diligence on an individual company. All of my methods are discussed in my work here. I hope this work inspires debate, conversation, and education - this is why I write for Seeking Alpha, to give back to the community that has helped me so much and to hopefully contribute, in some way...even if its by posing a question, to the growth of others. *I should note that all articles that I write here are done so for my personal informational/educational purposes only. Any purchases that I make or opinions that I express are not meant as recommendations for anyone else. Please perform your own due diligence before following my lead into or out of a position. I am not a professional. I am not a financial adviser of any sort. I enjoy investing and the open discussion that articles on this site inspire - this is why I write, not to influence anyone else's decisions, but to enhance my own ability to make sound financial choices. That being said, I wish the best of luck to everyone. May we all meet our own financial goals. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AAPL, ABBV, ACN, ADBE,ADC, ADP, AMGN, AMZN, APD, ARCC, ARE, ASML, AVB, AVGO, BAH, BAM, BEPC, BIPC, BIL, BLK, BMY, BN, BR, BTI, BX, CARR, CCI, CMCSA, CME, CMG, CMI, CPT, CRM, CSCO, CSL, DE, DEO, DHR, DIS, DLR, DPZ, ECL, ENB, ESS, FB, FRT, FZFXX, GOOGL, HD, HON, HRL, HSY, ICE, ITW, JNJ, KO, LHX, LMT, LOW, MA, MAA, MCD, MDT, MKC, MO, MRK, MSFT, NKE, NNN, NOC, NVDA, O, ORCC, OTIS, PEP, PH, PLD, PLTR, PYPL, QCOM, REXR, RSG, RTX, RY, SBUX, SHW, SPGI, STZ, SWK, TMO, TD, TXN, USFR, UNH, V, VZ, WM, WPC either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body. Comments (123) Wishing successful investing to all. It’s nice yield will not last forever, when the rates stabilize I’ll turn to lock in some CD rates.When you wrote “I just didn’t want to copy/paste all of those words here because it would have turned this article into a novella of sorts.” It reminded me of what a professor told me many years ago about an essay I wrote. He told me. “ an essay should be like a woman’s skirt, short enough to be interesting, but long enough to cover the subject “Take care. BR - anything special about it? I've never heard about it. Trimmed Salesforce (CRM) - for a loss? reason?

AAPL

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U.S. lawmakers set to meet with CEOs over China concerns

Yahoo Finance's Rick Newman details how lawmakers are slated to meet with tech executives to discuss China and potential business relation concerns.

Yahoo

U.S. lawmakers set to meet with CEOs over China concerns Yahoo Finance's Rick Newman details how lawmakers are slated to meet with tech executives to discuss China and potential business relation concerns. Video Transcript SEANA SMITH: Another story coming out of DC or really from DC lawmakers, I should say. Apple CEO Tim Cook, Disney CEO Bob Iger, as well as other top executives from Google, Microsoft are meeting with the White House-- with the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party. Questions there just about US-China competition, clearly. Any idea, I guess, what could potentially, if anything, come out of these meetings? RICK NEWMAN: That committee is new. That select committee on China didn't exist before 2023, and that is a committee that Republicans set up to give new scrutiny to what we ought to be doing with regard to China. Is it a competitor or a partner, and what kind of policies should we be putting in place? The important development here is that there's not much party split on attitudes toward China. That's one of the reasons when Biden took office, he did not repeal the Trump tariffs on Chinese imports. He kept those in place. And both parties basically want to show that they are tough on China. You know, that has a lot to do with China stealing industrial-- Western technology and trade secrets. There's a huge military buildup going on in China. We know that President Xi-- President Xi Jinping keeps saying they're going to go after Taiwan at some point. We don't know if that's just rhetoric or if he really means it, but, you know, it's getting serious with Taiwan. And Biden is putting some pretty tough new policies in place, and I guess this meeting is probably just to feel out business leaders and get their sense of what we can do without harming US interests because there still are a lot of business ties and trade ties between US firms and consumers and Chinese firms and consumers. So we don't just want to tear up the entire relationship because that would be very bad for us as well as for China. So I guess in the House, they're just trying to get some ideas from these businesses that are operating in China and figure out what we can do without hurting ourselves. DAVE BRIGGS: China might be the only bipartisan issue before us today. Thank you, Rick. Appreciate that.

AAPL

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The bitcoin whitepaper is probably on your Mac

The bitcoin whitepaper has been discreetly included in every Mac operating system since 2017—and Apple won’t say why.

Yahoo

The bitcoin whitepaper is probably on your Mac The bitcoin whitepaper has been discreetly included in every Mac operating system since 2017—and Apple won’t say why. The whitepaper was written by the pseudnonymous creator of the bitcoin blockchain, Satoshi Nakamoto. It describes a peer-to-peer electronic payment system that is decentralized and enables financial transfers without a bank. Read more A fresh idea for gathering remote and hybrid employees together The whitepaper was written in 2008 in the wake of the financial crisis and is largely regarded as the start of the cryptocurrency movement. The whitepaper has been included as a sample document for an application called “Virtual Scanner II,” which is either hidden or not installed on MacOS, wrote blogger Andy Baio. To find the bitcoin whitepaper on your own Mac, simply head to Finder>Applications>Utilities and open The Terminal App. Then enter the following command into the app: open /System/Library/Image\ Capture/Devices/VirtualScanner.app/Contents/Resources/simpledoc.pdf The whitepaper could have been installed by a pro-bitcoin engineer. It also could have been placed there by a coder who was defying computer scientist Craig Wright who’s been trying unsuccessfully for years to copyright the bitcoin whitepaper claiming that he is Satoshi, noted crypto news outlet CoinDesk. “Of all the documents in the world, why was the Bitcoin whitepaper chosen? Is there a secret Bitcoin maxi working at Apple?” wrote Baio. “The filename is ‘simpledoc.pdf’ and it’s only 184 KB. Maybe it was just a convenient, lightweight multipage PDF for testing purposes, never meant to be seen by end users.” This isn’t the first time Apple has hidden a document in its Mac operating system. In the Pages app, there is a document titled “apple.txt,” which contains the text from two speeches delivered by former CEO Steve Jobs; one from the Crazy Ones Think Different ad campaign and another from his commencement speech at Stanford in 2005. More from Quartz The split of the African plate could gift six landlocked countries a coastline How Credit Suisse’s demise strengthens Switzerland’s place in global finance Sign up for Quartz's Newsletter. For the latest news, Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.

AAPL

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Dow Jones Gains As Fed's Bullard Says This; AMC Stock Rockets; Key Jobs Report Looms

The Dow Jones rose after Fed official James Bullard spoke ahead of a key jobs report. AMC stock rocketed. Apple stock rose.

Yahoo

Dow Jones Gains As Fed's Bullard Says This; AMC Stock Rockets; Key Jobs Report Looms The Dow Jones rose after Fed official James Bullard spoke ahead of a key jobs report. AMC stock rocketed. Apple stock rose. The Dow Jones rose after Fed official James Bullard spoke ahead of a key jobs report. AMC stock rocketed. Apple stock rose.

AAPL

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Elon Musk Shoots Down Amazon's Shiny Next Big Thing

The rivalry between Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos has just been fueled by a new episode. The two billionaires aspire through their respective companies, SpaceX for Musk and Blue Origin for Bezos, to soon make Mars and the Moon habitable for humans.

Yahoo

Elon Musk Shoots Down Amazon's Shiny Next Big Thing The rivalry between Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos has just been fueled by a new episode. The two billionaires aspire through their respective companies, SpaceX for Musk and Blue Origin for Bezos, to soon make Mars and the Moon habitable for humans.

AMZN

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Ernst & Young Leaders Expected to Approve Plan to Split Accounting Company

Decision to push ahead with proposal to spin off consulting arm could lead to firm splitting in late 2023.

MarketWatch

Ernst & Young’s leaders are expected this week to give the green light to splitting its auditing and consulting businesses, paving the way for the biggest shake-up in the accounting profession in more than 20 years, according to people familiar with the matter. The accounting giant’s global executive committee, which oversees the firm’s 312,000-person worldwide network, met on Labor Day to put the finishing touches to the plan for a worldwide breakup, the people familiar with the matter said. The committee is expected to approve the plan later this week, which will trigger votes on the deal by EY’s roughly 13,000 partners, who stand to make windfalls averaging more than a million dollars each. The split, penciled in for late next year, would separate EY’s accountants who check the books of companies such as Amazon Inc. from its faster-growing consulting business of advising on technology, deals and other issues. EY’s move could radically reshape the accounting landscape if it goes to plan, industry watchers said. An EY spokeswoman said that discussions were continuing and that “at this time, no decision has been made on moving to the next phase.” Read the rest of this article on The Wall Street Journal.

AMZN

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Tech stocks: MATANA is the new FAANG, analyst says

It's time to rethink who's at the top of the Big Tech food-chain, Constellation Research Principal Analyst & Founder Ray Wang told Yahoo Finance Live.

Yahoo

MATANA is the new FAANG, analyst says It's time to rethink who's at the top of the Big Tech food-chain, Constellation Research Principal Analyst & Founder Ray Wang told Yahoo Finance Live (video above). Wang argued that MATANA — Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Tesla (TSLA), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Nvidia (NVDA), and Amazon (AMZN) – is an upgrade to FAANG by dropping Meta (META) and Netflix (NFLX) while adding Microsoft, Tesla, and Nvidia. In 2013, when Jim Cramer of CNBC's "Mad Money" coined the term FAANG, many of those companies were thought of as upstarts who'd taken their respective markets by storm. This was especially true of Meta — then Facebook — and Netflix. But now, Wang said, both should be re-assessed. Meta, in particular, needs a new plan. "Facebook has got to do something besides ads," he told Yahoo Finance. "Once again, they're taking a beating for it. So, is it going to be the glasses? Is it going to be the metaverse? We're not there yet and that's really kind of what the challenge is." For Netflix, it's a question of growth, and what is and isn't on the table. And because the company's operating on a subscription model, Wang has questions about how much further they could go. "The reason they're out is because, how many more subscribers? How many more subscriptions are you going to handle?" he said. "Product placement should be where they are, plus the ability to do IP licensing. Look at how Disney makes its money." Wang stressed that Microsoft, which is often viewed as one of tech's leading legacy names, should be included in the group of tech's most elite leaders (and sometimes has been with the bulky FAAMNG acronym). "Microsoft has more than just business-to-business and consumer – they've been able to manage both," he said. "They're positioned well for the metaverse. They're positioned well for the cloud and, of course, they've got their gaming business." Rounding out the new grouping would be Tesla — a well-known success story at this point — and Nvidia. "Nvidia is a lot more than just the chips that we look at and more than the data center or gaming," Wang said. "They're sitting at the edge between AI, the metaverse, the future of computing, and the way they do their partnerships, they're set up in a way that's going to be dominant for quite some time." Allie Garfinkle is a Senior Tech Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter at @agarfinks. Download the Yahoo Finance app for Apple or Android. Follow Yahoo Finance on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube.

AMZN

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Want Better Returns? Don't Ignore These 2 Retail-Wholesale Stocks Set to Beat Earnings

The Zacks Earnings ESP is a great way to find potential earnings surprises. Why investors should take advantage now.

Yahoo

Want Better Returns? Don't Ignore These 2 Retail-Wholesale Stocks Set to Beat Earnings Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings. Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises. 2 Stocks to Add to Your Watchlist The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure. The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Costco (COST) earns a Zacks Rank #3 17 days from its next quarterly earnings release on September 22, 2022, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $4.12 a share. Costco's Earnings ESP sits at 0.11%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $4.12 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.11. COST is one of just a large database of Retail-Wholesale stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Amazon (AMZN). Slated to report earnings on October 27, 2022, Amazon holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $0.59 a share 52 days from its next quarterly update. Amazon's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at 103.45% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.29. COST and AMZN's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon. Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >> Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) : Free Stock Analysis Report Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) : Free Stock Analysis Report To read this article on Zacks.com click here. Zacks Investment Research

AMZN

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Amazon eyes entering Japan prescription drug market - Nikkei

Amazon.com Inc is considering entering the prescription drug sales market in Japan, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Monday.

Reuters

Amazon eyes entering Japan prescription drug market - Nikkei TOKYO, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) is considering entering the prescription drug sales market in Japan, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Monday. Amazon plans to partner with small- and mid-sized pharmacies for the service, starting next year when electronic prescriptions are allowed for the first time in Japan, Nikkei said, citing people involved in the project. Prescription drug prices in Japan are set by the government, while the distribution system is highly fragmented, with 70 wholesalers nationwide and almost 60,000 pharmacies. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

AMZN

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IN BRIEF: Retailer Zamaz makes direct listing on London Main Market

Looking for stock market analysis and research with proves results? Zacks.com offers in-depth financial research with over 30years of proven results.

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This page has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved or endorsed by the companies represented herein. Each of the company logos represented herein are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation; Dow Jones & Company; Nasdaq, Inc.; Forbes Media, LLC; Investor's Business Daily, Inc.; and Morningstar, Inc. Copyright 2023 Zacks Investment Research | 10 S Riverside Plaza Suite #1600 | Chicago, IL 60606 At the center of everything we do is a strong commitment to independent research and sharing its profitable discoveries with investors. This dedication to giving investors a trading advantage led to the creation of our proven Zacks Rank stock-rating system. Since 1988 it has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.17% per year. These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 15, 2023. Zacks Rank stock-rating system returns are computed monthly based on the beginning of the month and end of the month Zacks Rank stock prices plus any dividends received during that particular month. A simple, equally-weighted average return of all Zacks Rank stocks is calculated to determine the monthly return. The monthly returns are then compounded to arrive at the annual return. Only Zacks Rank stocks included in Zacks hypothetical portfolios at the beginning of each month are included in the return calculations. Zacks Ranks stocks can, and often do, change throughout the month. Certain Zacks Rank stocks for which no month-end price was available, pricing information was not collected, or for certain other reasons have been excluded from these return calculations. Visit Performance Disclosure for information about the performance numbers displayed above. Visit www.zacksdata.com to get our data and content for your mobile app or website. Real time prices by BATS. Delayed quotes by FIS. NYSE and AMEX data is at least 20 minutes delayed. NASDAQ data is at least 15 minutes delayed. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

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Insider Q&A: Max Levchin, founder and CEO of Affirm

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This page has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved or endorsed by the companies represented herein. Each of the company logos represented herein are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation; Dow Jones & Company; Nasdaq, Inc.; Forbes Media, LLC; Investor's Business Daily, Inc.; and Morningstar, Inc. Copyright 2023 Zacks Investment Research | 10 S Riverside Plaza Suite #1600 | Chicago, IL 60606 At the center of everything we do is a strong commitment to independent research and sharing its profitable discoveries with investors. This dedication to giving investors a trading advantage led to the creation of our proven Zacks Rank stock-rating system. Since 1988 it has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +24.17% per year. These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through May 15, 2023. Zacks Rank stock-rating system returns are computed monthly based on the beginning of the month and end of the month Zacks Rank stock prices plus any dividends received during that particular month. A simple, equally-weighted average return of all Zacks Rank stocks is calculated to determine the monthly return. The monthly returns are then compounded to arrive at the annual return. Only Zacks Rank stocks included in Zacks hypothetical portfolios at the beginning of each month are included in the return calculations. Zacks Ranks stocks can, and often do, change throughout the month. Certain Zacks Rank stocks for which no month-end price was available, pricing information was not collected, or for certain other reasons have been excluded from these return calculations. Visit Performance Disclosure for information about the performance numbers displayed above. Visit www.zacksdata.com to get our data and content for your mobile app or website. Real time prices by BATS. Delayed quotes by FIS. NYSE and AMEX data is at least 20 minutes delayed. NASDAQ data is at least 15 minutes delayed. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

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Stock Market Analysis: AMZN, AAPL, NVDA, META, NFLX, TSLA, GOOGL

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The Most Searched Consumer Brands In 2022

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India's Bengaluru hit by flooding, traffic snarls after heavy rain

Large parts of India's tech capital Bengaluru were under water on Monday after torrential rains lashed the city, causing crippling traffic disruptions and prompting offices to issue work-from-home... | September 5, 2022

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AMZN The city is home to companies such as Amazon, Flipkart and Wipro, all of whom run logistics and other operations from there. Several firms, including Wall Street investment bank Goldman Sachs and Indian food delivery company Swiggy asked emplyees to work from home, several people who work there told Reuters. Social media asked commuters to avoid certain routes because of heavy water-logging. Local television showed wading in waist-deep water and long traffic jams. (Reporting by Nivedita Bhattacharjee and Nandan Mandayam in Bengaluru, writing by Shilpa Jamkhandikar; Editing by Kim Coghill)

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Selling High-Growth Profitless Stocks Now Is Dumb, Here's Why

The notion that profitless stocks should be avoided no longer makes sense. The market has discounted them mightily, and 4% inflation - its effect on 50% to 60% revenue is minimal.

SeekingAlpha

Selling High-Growth Profitless Stocks Now Is Dumb, Here's Why Summary - The notion that profitless stocks should be avoided, no longer makes sense. The market has discounted them mightily, and 4% inflation - its effect on 50% to 60% revenue is minimal. - We are likely at the bottom of this ersatz recession with minimal layoffs. - We just have to tough it through this month, and October should get the bull started. - My concern turns to mid-2023, where I think Dan Niles prediction of an S&P that breaks 3600 (he says 3000) might come to pass. - This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Dual Mind Research. Learn More » You’ve heard dozens of times now, “sell all profitless hyper-growth names”. It’s time to re-assess. Why has it worn out its usefulness? Does this notion bother you? That is your first clue. There is a reason for taking a contrary approach and applying a skeptical analysis to “accepted wisdom”. A key point to making this switch is when every market participant repeats the same mantra. Odds are, it is rapidly becoming obsolete. In this case, whether you feel that inflation is still going higher, and disbelieve the new emerging facts or not, at some point the value of rapidly growing companies which by necessity must be highly successful will reassert itself as a wise investment. Of course, companies that are buying market share with equity raises are as doomed as ever. I am not talking about those or other types of zombie companies. Let’s also say that the notion of “profitless” is really over-broad. There are plenty of companies that are taking free cash flow and reinvesting it back in their business. In the tech world, gaining share now is more important than showing a profit. That aside only the most obstinate will insist that inflation is not subsiding, the fact is, supply chain kinks are coming out of the economy. There are few areas such as rents are still stubbornly high, yet overall it is pretty clear that the rapid rise in interest rates and the artful (or perhaps purposefully blunt) jawing of the Fed put fear into corporate America. Hiring has slowed, and the “Tech Titans” and their contenders are reversing their ravenous consumption of technology personnel. This has led to a great reshuffling of that talent as it spread to small and midsize enterprises, where it can play a more productive role in bringing them into the digital age. Alas, good news is now the bad news On Friday, we had a very good employment number at about 350,000 new jobs, and the unemployment rate rose by 3.7%. Last month was 3.5%, so wasn’t that bad news? No, because the unemployment number counts the number of people looking for work, so in this case, more people are coming into the workforce, with the 60 to +64-year-old cohort coming back into the workforce. Contrary to public opinion, the older aged workforce can be extremely productive. Also rising were the first-time jobseekers - this was very good news indeed. Average hourly wages came down a bit and as workforce participation accelerates, wages will continue to moderate. What does this mean for high-growth unprofitable stocks? The notion that wages, one of the largest motors of inflation coming under control, and the other data points indicate that we will level off on inflation. 4% happens to be the consensus of where inflation should move to, shortly. Let’s dwell on that for the moment. Let’s take MongoDB (MDB) for an example; Revenue soared 53% year over year in the second quarter, driven by the sizable 73% growth for Atlas, MongoDB's fully managed cloud-based database platform. Atlas now accounts for 64% of total revenue, with the rest coming from enterprise-focused products and services. Atlas subscription model as it grows will contribute mightily to profit visibility. So let’s play the “Long Duration and Inflation” game. Inflation will be at 4% by year-end, let’s say it takes another eighteen months to get back to two percent. In 18 months, MDB growing at 53% will easily cover the 6% to 8% ding to profits. Will we see profits in 18 months? I hope not, but I definitely am confident there will be free cash flow. You see, MDB is at the center of digitization. The move of legacy applications stuck on the Mainframe. This is easily a trillion-dollar (yes, with a "T") market opportunity. It would be the height of foolishness for the executive management of MDB to throttle back on that growth. Will MDB capture it all, obviously not, there are other platforms out there. Will MDB be the next Microsoft (MSFT), that’s not conceivable right now. That’s not to say that it is inconceivable, meaning there is another MSFT, or GOOGL out there. Why would a Snowflake (SNOW) or an MDB ease up on that mission to satisfy the purveyors of value stocks or some talking head that is looking backward instead of forward? The recession will end before we even really notice it if it ever really was a recession. What do I mean by that? Everyone knows it is 2 quarters of negative growth. Though, there has never been a recession that didn’t have massive layoffs. It is likely, as I have been saying, that the big enterprises were hoarding tech talent. That is where the biggest growth in salaries is to be found. So now the big boys have stopped hoarding talent, a lot of that talent doesn’t want to sit in the office anyway. Which is where a lot of the big companies want their people to be. Smaller mid-sized companies will be only too happy to get their hands on that remote talent. That will fire up the lagging productivity numbers we’ve been having, and voila! More productivity means even less inflation. Last November was the peak in the market, and we experienced a long slide down as the stock market got busy discounting inflation and what we now know was a recession of some sort. The graph below is a great illustration of what is likely to happen next. If you start the above with the market peak aligned with November there’s nearly a perfect alignment with the rest of the cycle, are we at the absolute bottom? Good question, Dan Niles, a hedge fund god whom I admire greatly, expects a crash down to 3000 on the S&P. I don’t see that now. It could happen next year, when all of these rising rates might really take the economy by the throat. However, right now and until the end of the year, I believe we are nearing very strong support from market participants. Where will they gravitate to in a slower-paced economy? Not the cyclical value names, though, this could very well be an “everything” rally. I believe they will start picking up the SNOW and MDBs of the world. I also think that all these foundries being built will need the machinery to turn out those chips that run everything. Select chip stocks which are the equivalent to the transports of the last century will also be in demand. Let’s not forget the energy stocks, which will still benefit from $90 to $100 WTI. I sense good times ahead once again. That does not mean that you eschew hedging, husbanding your cash, and making select shorts (either via puts, or simply shorting). I did a lot of that this week. My Trades Long EA Put 131 strike Sept 02 @ $1.4 closed $2.35 Long Put BBY 75 strike Oct 21 @ $6 Closed at $8.45 Long Put CHWY 30 strike Oct 21 @ $1.95 closed at $2.30 Long Put BBY 72.5 strike Oct 21 @ $4.90 closed $5.50 Long Put NCNO 35 Strike Oct 21@ 3.60 closed $5.10 Long Put SQQQ 42 Strike Sept 23 @ 4.2 per contract closed $2.73 (loss) I felt confident that we were in a bearish phase, so looking for short opportunities was relatively easy. In many of these names, the stock actually popped on bullish news. Serop ElMayan, our options guru at Dual Mind Research inspired this tactic, and I am making full use of his insight. I also had several hedges going on with SQQQ, SPSX, and SARK which I held intermittently this week, but closed out before the weekend with minimal gains. I am sure it won't surprise anyone that I have been picking up shares of MongoDB. I have not gotten to SNOW as yet, however, if the market opens down tomorrow, I will be sure to get back in and this time I think I will hold onto it. Expanding on my interest in biotech, I started a position in Veeva Systems (VEEV), also added to Seagen (SGEN), and blue bird (BLUE). I sold down a lot of my energy names in my trading account, not because I am less confident in the sector. I did so because I would rather hold the cash. There is nothing wrong with taking some profits as well. The Oil companies have held up very well compared to the actual product, though if some of these quality names do fall hard I will gladly add some back, I haven’t touched my long-term investment in Devon Energy (DVN), Apache (APA), Coterra (CTRA). I will continue to hold them. I have been adding back my Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), as they have been falling. Contrary to some negative comments about not timing stocks, I guess I have been lucky selling AMZN and GOOGL at higher prices and slowly adding back to them now. In fact, I believe that timing the market is something that has been quite successful for me and my friends in the DMR community. So yes, if you put in the research work to measure the market’s temperature it is possible to skate where the puck is going, not where it was. If you enjoy my weekly stock analysis articles, You will be happy to learn that I offer a subscription service Dual Mind Research. Serop Elmayan, a brilliant young man who brings a quantitative approach to surface high probability fast-money trades, and I are partners in this service so you get the benefit of two unique investing approaches. My narrative style and his engineering approach will give you a unique value indeed. The first 2 weeks are free so check it out today for our latest ideas. This article was written by Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of MDB either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Please note: You should not take the above text as investment advice. I am not a broker, Registered Investment Advisor, or certified money manager, I cannot give financial advice. What I am doing is chronicling my thought process. If I use the word you in a sentence, I am really talking to myself, or it was a simple typo, in no way did I mean to advise you. Always do your own research and understand what you are buying, and what your risk is, and be sure before you make a purchase. Also, only trade what you can afford to lose. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body. Comments (68) Jan. 10, 2022 12:33 AM ET Hmmmmmmm. This is your article correct?? (Continuing) Real average weekly earnings DECREASED 3.6% between July 2021 and July 2022. From: www.bls.gov/... Actually, LOW real wage growth occurs during periods of high inflation. 1) From the St. Louis Fed site: www.stlouisfed.org/... "... confirming the finding in the first figure that periods of high inflation are, in general, periods of low real wage growth."2) For July 2021 T: "3.6-percent DECREASE in real average weekly earnings over this period. "Real average hourly earnings decreased 3.0 percent, seasonally adjusted, from July 2021 to July 2022. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.6 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 3.6-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period." seekingalpha.com/... This is exactly how a healthy capitalist system is supposed to operate. So-called "activist investors" who throw baby fits because companies aren't dissipating their profits on stock holders instead of R&D and expanding their product and market base have a parasitical effect on companies and the overall market place. The damage isn't obvious at first because, like termites, it takes awhile to notice you have a problem. By the time the problem is noticeable it's severe and difficult to correct. The real problem is spineless, or indulgent, board members. They're supposed to be the grown ups in the room. If they don't have their company's long-term health in mind, they're useless. seekingalpha.com/... You would be most welcome in our community. We offer a 2-week free trial. seekingalpha.com/... I still like MRNA’s long term prospects. Too many great biotechs to list them. SAVA for a wild ride?! Adding slowly to HCP & CFLT. Thanks again! Don’t work on Labor Day

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Trading The Top 10 Stocks From 40 Large Hedge Funds: Trading Update 9/4/2022

A strategy selecting 10 of the 50 stocks, equally weighted, would have increased total return to 178.0%, an active return of 61.6% vs. SPY.

SeekingAlpha

Trading The Top 10 Stocks From 40 Large Hedge Funds: Trading Update 9/4/2022 Summary - This portfolio strategy uses the quarterly 13F filings to extract 50 consensus stocks from 40 large hedge funds that have more than $3.5 billion in Assets Under Management. - From 1/2/2016 to date investing in all 50 stocks, equally weighted, would have produced a total return of 78.5%, an active return of -37.8% when compared to SPY’s 116.3%. - A strategy selecting 10 of the 50 stocks, equally weighted, would have increased the total return to 178.0%, an active return of 61.6% when compared to SPY. - Here we report the most recent holdings and the trading signals for 9/6/2022. Research from Barclays and Novus published in October 2019 found that a copycat stock selection strategy that combines conviction and consensus of fund managers that have longer-term views outperformed the S&P 500 by 3.80% on average annually from Q1 2004 to Q2 2019. Based on that rational, we previously presented two trading models (in Article-1 and Article-2) that use the top 50 consensus stocks of 40 Large Hedge Funds (listed in Appendix A below), that historically outperformed the S&P 500. The iM-Top50(from 40 Hedge Funds) model holds all 50 stocks equally weighted and has a low turnover. The iM-Top10(from 40 Hedge Funds) model holds a subset of 10 stocks, also equally weighted, but with higher turnover which is rewarded by improved returns. The performance simulation, and generation of trading signals, for these strategies is done using the platform Portfolio123 and reported below. For more comprehensive description of the 50 stock universe please refer to here. Note: This update is published on Seeking Alpha, editor permitting, only if the model has generated trading signals. Model Performance: Note: The iM-Top10VariableWeight model (green line) is an experimental model. It holds the same stocks as the iM-Top10 model put position weights are adjusted to an inverse function of market capitalization, that is the higher the market cap of the stock the lower the position weight. As a consequence it is difficult to trade as market capitalization changes with the stock price. Trade Signals for 9/6/2022 |iM-Top10(of 40 Large Hedge Funds)| |Action||Ticker||Shares||Name| |SELL||ADBE||67||Adobe, Inc.| |BUY||QCOM||192||QUALCOMM, Inc.| |iM-Top50(of 40 Large Hedge Funds)| |No Trades| The models trade on the first trading day of the week. Trading signals are published on a weekly basis here on Seeking Alpha (subject to model trading and editor’s acceptance) and on iMarketSignals. Next update on Sunday 9/13/2022 Holdings for iM-Top10(of 40 Large Hedge Funds) as of 9/2/2022 |Current Portfolio 9/2/2022||Cash Flow| |Ticker||Number of Shares||Weight||Value now||Open Date||Open Costs||Rebal Costs | Return||Dividends Received||Gain to date| |(AAPL)||179||10.03%||$27,890||08/22/22||($30,109)||—||—||($2,219)| |(ADBE)||67||8.87%||$24,665||08/08/22||($29,199)||—||—||($4,533)| |(CHTR)||67||9.81%||$27,278||08/22/22||($29,707)||—||—||($2,429)| |(DHR)||103||9.98%||$27,750||06/13/22||($25,190)||—||$26||$2,586| |(INCY)||411||10.38%||$28,856||08/22/22||($30,326)||—||—||($1,470)| |(MA)||87||10.10%||$28,063||05/02/22||($27,266)||($3,816)||$37||($2,982)| |(SCHW)||416||10.53%||$29,261||08/08/22||($28,585)||—||$92||$768| |(TDG)||50||10.81%||$30,060||05/23/22||($28,158)||—||$925||$2,827| |(TSM)||321||9.34%||$25,969||08/08/22||($28,268)||—||—||($2,299)| |(V)||140||9.96%||$27,686||12/07/20||($30,865)||$1,269||$360||($1,549)| Holdings for iM-Top50(of 40 Large Hedge Funds) as of 8/19/2022 |Current Portfolio 9/2/2022||Cash Flow| |Ticker||Number of Shares||Weight||Value now||Open Date||Open Costs||Rebal Costs | Return||Dividends Received||Gain to date| |(AAPL)||24||2.09%||$3,739||01/04/16||($2,109)||$4,982||$269||$6,881| |(ADBE)||9||1.86%||$3,313||01/04/16||($2,118)||$3,218||—||$4,414| |(ALTR)||69||1.88%||$3,358||08/22/22||($3,714)||—||—||($357)| |(AMT)||14||1.97%||$3,512||01/04/16||($2,033)||$1,727||$480||$3,686| |(AMZN)||30||2.14%||$3,825||01/04/16||($1,913)||$3,912||—||$5,825| |(APP)||140||1.89%||$3,373||05/30/22||($3,147)||($2,402)||—||($2,176)| |(BRK.B)||13||2.02%||$3,610||05/23/22||($4,343)||$144||—||($589)| |(BSX)||96||2.18%||$3,887||02/24/20||($3,949)||$152||—||$90| |(CHTR)||8||1.82%||$3,257||08/22/22||($3,547)||—||—||($290)| |(CNI)||32||2.10%||$3,744||05/23/22||($4,410)||$819||$23||$175| |(COUP)||55||1.76%||$3,134||08/19/19||($3,549)||($3,491)||—||($3,906)| |(CRM)||20||1.72%||$3,074||05/22/17||($2,315)||$840||—||$1,599| |(CRWD)||20||1.93%||$3,449||05/26/20||($4,210)||$5,621||—||$4,860| |(DHR)||13||1.96%||$3,502||08/19/19||($3,547)||$3,433||$54||$3,442| |(DOCU)||57||1.74%||$3,104||08/24/20||($5,118)||($4,258)||—||($6,272)| |(ELV)||8||2.16%||$3,856||02/28/22||($4,503)||$854||$29||$237| |(FATE)||133||1.99%||$3,554||02/16/21||($6,499)||($3,851)||—||($6,796)| |(FIS)||38||1.92%||$3,419||08/22/22||($3,724)||—||—||($305)| |(FISV)||44||2.50%||$4,463||11/18/19||($3,209)||($1,830)||—||($576)| |(FOLD)||396||2.54%||$4,538||05/23/22||($4,407)||$1,277||—||$1,408| |(GFS)||62||2.01%||$3,589||08/22/22||($3,680)||—||—||($92)| |(GOOGL)||34||2.05%||$3,667||01/04/16||($2,281)||$2,932||—||$4,318| |(INCY)||45||1.77%||$3,159||02/28/22||($4,566)||$1,507||—||$100| |(INTU)||8||1.88%||$3,360||02/19/19||($3,523)||$3,219||$112||$3,168| |(KMX)||39||1.91%||$3,415||05/24/21||($5,377)||$721||—||($1,241)| |(MA)||11||1.99%||$3,548||01/04/16||($2,088)||$2,636||$144||$4,241| |(MCO)||12||1.91%||$3,413||01/04/16||($2,044)||$2,791||$259||$4,419| |(META)||22||1.98%||$3,527||01/04/16||($2,047)||($928)||—||$553| |(MSFT)||16||2.29%||$4,097||01/04/16||($2,085)||$3,882||$366||$6,260| |(MU)||62||1.96%||$3,492||08/22/22||($3,634)||—||—||($142)| |(NFLX)||17||2.15%||$3,844||01/04/16||($2,092)||$687||—||$2,439| |(NOW)||8||1.95%||$3,476||11/19/18||($2,825)||$3,001||—||$3,652| |(NVDA)||21||1.61%||$2,866||02/24/20||($3,830)||$6,951||$16||$6,003| |(QCOM)||24||1.73%||$3,084||08/24/20||($5,106)||$3,168||$238||$1,384| |(SCHW)||58||2.29%||$4,080||02/28/22||($4,555)||($526)||$24||($978)| |(SGEN)||24||2.05%||$3,656||01/04/16||($2,099)||$2,907||—||$4,465| |(SNOW)||26||2.50%||$4,459||02/16/21||($6,487)||($89)||—||($2,117)| |(SPGI)||10||1.95%||$3,476||05/23/22||($4,544)||$976||$20||($72)| |(TDG)||6||2.02%||$3,607||01/04/16||($2,071)||$2,572||$1,023||$5,131| |(TMO)||8||2.44%||$4,348||05/23/22||($4,446)||—||$2||($95)| |(TMUS)||28||2.23%||$3,975||05/23/22||($4,395)||$704||—||$285| |(TSLA)||18||2.72%||$4,864||05/26/20||($4,098)||$10,984||—||$11,749| |(TSM)||43||1.95%||$3,479||11/22/21||($6,768)||$1,599||$61||($1,629)| |(UBER)||137||2.23%||$3,980||05/23/22||($4,358)||$1,350||—||$972| |(UNH)||7||2.02%||$3,614||05/22/17||($2,274)||$3,836||$314||$5,492| |(UNP)||17||2.13%||$3,807||05/23/22||($4,331)||$670||$48||$194| |(V)||17||1.88%||$3,362||01/04/16||($2,046)||$1,693||$170||$3,179| |(W)||71||1.98%||$3,527||11/23/20||($5,390)||($5,138)||—||($7,001)| |(WDAY)||25||2.22%||$3,964||05/26/20||($4,213)||$159||—||($91)| Appendix A Hedge Fund Filers: - Akre Capital Management LLC - Alkeon Capital Management LLC - Altimeter Capital Management, LP - Aristotle Capital Management, LLC - Baker Bros. Advisors LP - Barings LLC - Calamos Advisors LLC - Capital International Ltd - Citadel Advisors LLC - Coatue Management LLC - D. E. Shaw & Company, Inc. - Disciplined Growth Investors Inc - DSM Capital Partners LLC - Echo Street Capital Management LLC - FMR LLC - Fort Washington Investment Advisors Inc - GW&K Investment Management, LLC - Hitchwood Capital Management LP - Jennison Associates LLC - King Luther Capital Management Corp - Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Company LP - Lone Pine Capital LLC - Loomis Sayles & Company LP - Matrix Capital Management Company, LP - Meritage Group LP - Panagora Asset Management Inc - Perceptive Advisors LLC - Pinebridge Investments, LP - Redmile Group, LLC - Renaissance Technologies LLC - Riverbridge Partners LLC - Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb LP - Steadfast Capital Management LP - TCI Fund Management Ltd - Tiger Global Management LLC - Verition Fund Management LLC - Viking Global Investors LP - Westfield Capital Management Company LP - Whale Rock Capital Management LLC - Winslow Capital Management, LLC This article was written by Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body. Comments (4)

AMZN

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Amazon: Don't Bet Against It Turning The Corner - Buy This Pullback

Amazon has fallen nearly 14% from its August highs, as we urged investors to wait for a pullback. See why we revise our rating on AMZN stock from Hold to Buy.

SeekingAlpha

Amazon: Don't Bet Against It Turning The Corner - Buy This Pullback Summary - AMZN has fallen nearly 14% from its August highs, as we urged investors to wait for a pullback first. The current levels could offer investors an opportunity to add exposure. - Amazon has been focusing on expanding its footprint in the healthcare space. It was reported to be a top priority for CEO Andy Jassy. - The company has also rationalized its warehouse expansion strategies. Moreover, it has also expanded a new warehousing program to target non-Amazon fulfillment after its Buy with Prime initiative. - We believe Amazon's fulfillment moat could return to support its operating leverage growth as Amazon laps less challenging comps moving ahead. - We discuss why we revise our rating from Hold to Buy. - I do much more than just articles at Ultimate Growth Investing: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more. Learn More » Thesis It has been a busy quarter for Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), with a series of acquisitions primed to further its engagement with consumers and tap other growth drivers. Following its deal to acquire One Medical (ONEM), it then snapped up iRobot (IRBT), as CEO Andy Jassy & Co. moved quickly to enhance its ability to collect more data about its consumers. However, the momentum has been hampered recently, as WSJ reported that CVS Health Corporation (CVS) is the leading contender to acquire Signify Health (SGFY) after losing the bid to buy One Medical to Amazon earlier. Furthermore, the FTC is also investigating Amazon's deal to acquire One Medical, which could delay the deal's completion. Investors are urged to pay close attention to Amazon's forays into the healthcare space as Jassy looks to spruce up new growth areas quickly to accelerate Amazon's growth momentum. The company has also been improving its operational efficiencies after its rapid growth in fulfillment capacity over the past two years. Therefore, we believe the company recognizes the criticality of recovering its profitability while driving growth in newer segments to placate investors, as its margins profile fell markedly. AMZN remains more than 30% below its all-time highs, although it has recovered markedly from its May lows. We noted in our previous article that AMZN had likely formed its medium-term bottom in June and is unlikely to breach that level. Therefore, we believe the recent pullback from its August highs represents a potential opportunity for investors to consider layering in, as Amazon is on track to improve its growth profile and recover its profitability. Accordingly, we revise our rating on AMZN from Hold to Cautious Buy, as we surmise there could still be downside volatility as the price action is not ideal. Amazon Is Leveraging New Growth Drivers The Information reported that the organizational changes in Amazon reflected the "hefty investment Amazon is putting into expanding its health services arm, which Jassy has made a top priority as he looks for gigantic new markets that could fuel the company’s growth." Therefore, investors shouldn't be surprised with the rapid forays that Amazon has executed recently in the healthcare space as it seeks to rejuvenate its growth profile. Furthermore, The Information highlighted that Buy with Prime is a critical project that emerged from its secretive Project Santos unit to target Shopify's (SHOP) competitive moat with the allure of its fulfillment capability. A survey by Morgan Stanley (MS) highlighted that 73% of respondents cited Prime's free two-day shipping as the primary reason for their decision to sign up. It's also the most critical reason in the survey for the respondents, just ahead of Prime Video (58%). Little wonder that a recent report highlighted that Shopify has been "discouraging" its merchants from using Buy with Prime, citing a violation of its terms of service. It highlighted: You have a code snippet on your storefront that violates Shopify’s Terms of Service. This script removes Shopify's ability to protect your store against fraudulent orders, could steal customer data, and may cause customers to be charged the wrong amount. - Marketplace Pulse Moreover, Amazon has also gone to great lengths to further the engagement with Prime members and drive new sign-ups. Its tentpole Lord of the Rings series will be carefully scrutinized within its S-team as Amazon dials up the appeal of its Prime membership. Therefore, we urge investors to pay attention to management's commentary on metrics for Prime in its next earnings call, given the spate of developments over the past couple of months. Amazon Is Also Cutting Costs To Improve Its Profitability Amazon has made it clear that it's focused on driving more efficiencies in its underlying business, given the rapid growth in its fulfillment and logistical capabilities over the past two years. Therefore, we are not surprised that Bloomberg reported Amazon had shelved extensive plans for warehouse expansion. Moreover, Insider shared more details on Amazon's new warehouse program, called "Amazon Warehousing & Distribution (AWD)." Amazon has been attracting merchants to expand the scope of fulfillment to non-Amazon orders with AWD. The program is designed to offer merchants the ability to let Amazon handle fulfillment for slower-moving inventory at lower charges, capturing a larger slice of the fulfillment value chain. Therefore, we believe the company has been executing ideas with its warehousing capacity to reach out to more merchants in its bid to continue gaining share with its unrivaled fulfillment capability. Therefore, we believe that its efforts in leveraging its capacity successfully could rejuvenate its operating leverage, which has suffered tremendously with the normalization of e-commerce growth. The consensus estimates (very bullish) indicate that Amazon's revenue growth profile should reach a bottom in FY22 before recovering through FY26. While the growth cadence is expected to be much slower than its pre-COVID years, we believe there's scope for upside surprises, as discussed earlier. In addition, Amazon's free cash flow (FCF) margins are projected to improve markedly from the lows of FY22 as it further improves its operational efficiencies. Coupled with a highly profitable AWS and advertising, its resurgent retail business could underpin its margins profile moving forward, helping to sustain AMZN's premium valuation. AMZN's Valuation Could Be Re-rated AMZN last traded at an NTM EBITDA multiple of 17.3x and an NTM normalized P/E of 77.5x. While it still traded at a premium, we noted that the market has consistently supported AMZN at valuations close to the zone it found robust support in June. As seen above, AMZN traded below the two standard deviation zone below its 10Y mean in June. Therefore, we are confident that the market remains confident of AMZN's execution. As a result, the recent pullback from its August highs should be regarded as a healthy retracement, offering investors a less aggressive entry zone. Is AMZN Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold? AMZN has fallen about 14% since its August highs. But, we are confident that the bear trap (indicating the market denied further selling downside decisively) in June should undergird the recovery of AMZN's medium-term bullish bias. While the price action is not ideal, we believe AMZN's entry level has been de-risked sufficiently for investors to consider adding more positions. As such, we revise our rating on AMZN from Hold to Buy. Do you want to buy only at the right entry points for your growth stocks? We help you to pick lower-risk entry points, ensuring you are able to capitalize on them with a higher probability of success and profit on their next wave up. Your membership also includes: 24/7 access to our model portfolios Daily Tactical Market Analysis to sharpen your market awareness and avoid the emotional rollercoaster Access to all our top stocks and earnings ideas Access to all our charts with specific entry points Real-time chatroom support Real-time buy/sell/hedge alerts Sign up now for a Risk-Free 14-Day free trial! This article was written by Ultimate Growth Investing, led by founder JR Research, helps investors better understand a range of investment sectors with a focus on technology. JR specializes in growth investments, utilizing a price action-based approach backed by actionable fundamental analysis. With a powerful toolkit, JR also provides insights into market sentiments, generating actionable market-leading indicators. In addition to tech and growth, JR also offers general stock analysis across a wide range of sectors and industries, with short- to medium-term stock analysis that includes a combination of long and short setups. Join the community today to improve your investment strategy and start experiencing the quality of our service. Seeking Alpha features JR Research as one of its Top Analysts to Follow for the Technology, Software, and the Internet category, as well as for the Growth and GARP categories. JR Research was featured as one of Seeking Alpha's leading contributors in 2022. About JR: He was previously an Executive Director with a global financial services corporation and led company-wide, award-winning wealth management teams consistently ranked among the best in the company. He graduated with an Economics Degree from Asia's top-ranked National University of Singapore (NUS). NUS is also ranked among the top ten universities globally. I currently hold the rank of Major as a Commissioned Officer (Reservist) with the Singapore Armed Forces. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMZN either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body. Comments (27) Imagine offering only $3T to buy all of Apple. In a normal environment, I would say stock valaution should be closer to $5T. That price would likely require a broad drop to overall markets. Unlikely, but possible entering the worst mos.(Sept & Oct) of a crazy year. 1. Around the end of the Turbulant macro winds2. Much lower , as Amazon just announced its business growth is much lower than anticipated and cutting down expansions. Hint taken.Me and my money can wait, no hurry. Indeed. Believe a price well below $110.00 in the cards before all said and done. And before 2022 comes to a end. It is just what is meant to be. No artistic value required.

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Streaming War: Amazon Has News That Disney, Netflix and HBO Won't Like

In the streaming wars, Amazon tends to be often overlooked. The rivalry often seems to be between Netflix and Disney , even if Amazon has already amassed nominations and awards for series, documentaries, and films like "Manchester by The Sea", "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel", "The Underground Railroad" or "Tom Clancy's Jack Ryan." The group's strategy, which seems to focus on sports with the acquisition of more sports rights in Europe and its affirmation as one of the broadcasting places of the National Football League, also often reinforces the perception that Amazon does not play in the same court as its two competitors and even HBO MAX.

Yahoo

Streaming War: Amazon Has News That Disney, Netflix and HBO Won't Like In the streaming wars, Amazon tends to be often overlooked. The rivalry often seems to be between Netflix and Disney , even if Amazon has already amassed nominations and awards for series, documentaries, and films like "Manchester by The Sea", "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel", "The Underground Railroad" or "Tom Clancy's Jack Ryan." The group's strategy, which seems to focus on sports with the acquisition of more sports rights in Europe and its affirmation as one of the broadcasting places of the National Football League, also often reinforces the perception that Amazon does not play in the same court as its two competitors and even HBO MAX.

AMZN

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Amazon says 25 million people watched 'The Rings of Power' on its first day

Amazon.com Inc. said more than 25 million people around the world sampled the premiere of its highly-anticipated series “The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of...

MarketWatch

Amazon.com Inc. said more than 25 million people around the world sampled the premiere of its highly-anticipated series “The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power” on Sept 2, the biggest debut in the streaming service’s history. Based on the work of J.R.R. Tolkien, the series is the most expensive television production ever. The Wall Street Journal reported that the budget to make the show, coupled with the fee to acquire the rights from the Tolkien estate, was about $715 million. This marks the first time Amazon has released viewership data for its content. The company declined to say how the show’s ratings compared with other content on the platform. Amazon AMZN, Amazon Studios Chief Jennifer Salke called the series and the initial response a “proud moment” for the company. “It is the tens of millions of fans watching—clearly as passionate about Middle-earth as we are—who are our true measure of success,” she said in a statement. An expanded version of this report appears on WSJ.com. Also popular on WSJ.com: The other doomsday scenario looming over markets. Consumers feel worse now than they did during COVID lockdowns.

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Why I Sold a Healthcare Stock for a Cheap Internet Play

SmileDirectClub has a massive opportunity, but there are some pitfalls too; Farfetch has a monopoly position in its area of the fashion industry.

Yahoo

Why I Sold a Healthcare Stock for a Cheap Internet Play SmileDirectClub has a massive opportunity, but there are some pitfalls too; Farfetch has a monopoly position in its area of the fashion industry. SmileDirectClub has a massive opportunity, but there are some pitfalls too; Farfetch has a monopoly position in its area of the fashion industry.

AMZN

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National Cinema Day’s $3 Movie Tickets Draw 8 Million

National Cinema Day, timed to boost attendance during what has traditionally been a slow weekend for movie theaters, could become an annual event.

MarketWatch

Saturday’s National Cinema Day promotion to boost attendance at movie theaters with $3 tickets drew more than eight million moviegoers nationwide, according to EntTelligence estimates. Friday’s attendance, in comparison, was just under one million. More than 3,000 participating movie theaters, including major chains such as AMC Entertainment (ticker: AMC) and Cineworld Group-owned (CINE. L) Regal Cinemas and independent theaters showed Paramount’s (PARA) Top Gun: Maverick, Warner Bros.’ DC League of Super-Pets, and Sony’s (SONY) Bullet Train along with other movies such as a rerelease of Jaws, on more than 30,000 screens. The preliminary box office tally showed sales of $24.3 million, according to Comscore, 9% more than the previous Saturday. Labor Day weekend is traditionally one of the slowest periods of the year for movie theaters. The idea was to drum up business ahead of this fall’s new releases, such as Warner Bros. ‘ Black Adam on Oct. 21, and Walt Disney ’s (DIS) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever on Nov. 11. Some theater chains also offered concession discounts. The nonprofit Cinema Foundation, part of the National Association of Theater Owners, said National Cinema Day could become an annual event. Domestic summer ticket sales from films including Top Gun, Minions: The Rise of Gru, and Jurassic World Dominion reached $3.3 billion, 21% lower than ticket sales before the pandemic. For the year, ticket sales are $5.3 billion, the most since 2019, according to BoxOfficeMojo. At the same time, media companies are boosting their streaming services. Amazon.com (AMZN) said more than 25 million people worldwide saw the premiere of “The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power” on Friday, the biggest debut in the streaming service’s history. Costing about $715 million for the production budget and the rights from the J.R.R. Tolkien estate, it is the most expensive television series ever made, The Wall Street Journal reported. Write to Janet H. Cho at janet.cho@dowjones.com

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The Hidden Reason Behind Bed Bath & Beyond's Demise

Shares fell after the company's business update last Wednesday failed to excite its investor base, and the latest update shows that there's a laundry list of challenges facing the home-goods retailer. Comparable sales fell 26% in the latest quarter, and the company reported a loss of $325 million in free cash flow, meaning cash burn reached nearly $1 billion in the first half of the year.

Yahoo

The Hidden Reason Behind Bed Bath & Beyond's Demise Shares fell after the company's business update last Wednesday failed to excite its investor base, and the latest update shows that there's a laundry list of challenges facing the home-goods retailer. Comparable sales fell 26% in the latest quarter, and the company reported a loss of $325 million in free cash flow, meaning cash burn reached nearly $1 billion in the first half of the year.

AMZN

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3 Stock-Split Stocks That Are Screaming Buys Right Now

Investors may remember 2022 as the year that stock splits came back. Such attributes can help boost the fortunes of Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG).

Yahoo

3 Stock-Split Stocks That Are Screaming Buys Right Now Investors may remember 2022 as the year that stock splits came back. Such attributes can help boost the fortunes of Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG).

AMZN

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If You Like Amazon, You'll Love These 3 Stocks

Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) is one of those stocks investors love to own, and for good reason. Thankfully, investing directly in Amazon isn't the only way to benefit from the company's incredible e-commerce growth and market share. Here are the stocks three Motley Fool contributors believe are great alternatives to Amazon: Digital Realty Trust (NYSE: DLR), Zillow Group (NASDAQ: ZG)(NASDAQ: Z), and Prologis (NYSE: PLD).

Yahoo

If You Like Amazon, You'll Love These 3 Stocks Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) is one of those stocks investors love to own, and for good reason. Thankfully, investing directly in Amazon isn't the only way to benefit from the company's incredible e-commerce growth and market share. Here are the stocks three Motley Fool contributors believe are great alternatives to Amazon: Digital Realty Trust (NYSE: DLR), Zillow Group (NASDAQ: ZG)(NASDAQ: Z), and Prologis (NYSE: PLD).

AMZN