afeng/fin_jan22 · Datasets at Hugging Face

ba

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2023-05-12T00:00:00

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The cost? Under $400.", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2023-05-10", "description": "Embraer (ERJ) Q1 Loss Wider Than Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/Y Embraer's (ERJ) first-quarter revenues improve 53% year over year. The reported figure beats the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.2%.", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2023-05-10", "description": "Aerojet Rocketdyne (AJRD) Q1 Earnings Lag, Sales Rise Y/Y Aerojet Rocketdyne (AJRD) Q1 sales of $566.3 million rise 10.8% from the year-ago quarter's $511.1 million. The top line misses the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.8%.", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2023-05-09", "description": "Virgin Galactic Earnings: A Return To Space, Orbit May Have A Buyer And More Shares of Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (NYSE: SPCE) are flat in after-hours trading Tuesday after the company reported first-quarter earnings. Here’s what investors need to know.\nBy The Numbers: Richard Branson’s space exploration company reported a loss of 57 cents per share, missing the consensus estimate of a 52-cent loss, on revenues of $392,000 against a $1.16-million estimate.\nOn Monday, the company issued a release saying it is planning to send a crew of four mission specialists to space later this month on the Unity's 25th flight, which will act as the final assessment of the full spaceflight system and astronaut experience before commercial services commence in June.\nCheck out ...Full story available on Benzinga.com", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2023-05-09", "description": "Novavax and Palantir rocket higher, while PayPal slumps and other stocks on the move Here are some of the biggest movers of the day.", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2023-05-09", "description": "Wall Street Awaits Economic and Earnings Data Wall Street Awaits Economic and Earnings Data", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2023-05-09", "description": "Boeing Sells 150 Planes, UAA Beats but Lowers A total of 150 new 737 MAX-10 planes have been ordered from Boeing (BA) by its long-time partner Ryanair (RYAAY) .", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2023-05-09", "description": "TransDigm (TDG) Beats on Q2 Earnings, Ups '23 EPS View TransDigm's (TDG) net sales amount to $1,592 million in the fiscal second quarter of 2023, indicating a 20% increase from the prior-year quarter's level. The figure also beats the Zacks Consensus Estimate.", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2023-05-09", "description": "Is This Dark Horse Space Company the Next SpaceX? 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{ "description": "Boeing is a major aerospace and defense firm. It operates in three segments: commercial airplanes; defense, space, and security; and global services. Boeing's commercial airplanes segment competes with Airbus in the production of aircraft that can carry more than 130 passengers. Boeing's defense, space, and security segment competes with defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman to create military aircraft, satellites, and weaponry. Global services provides aftermarket support to airlines.", "name": "Boeing Company", "ticker": "ba" }

If the 1-month yield exceeds the 10-year yield (yield curve inversion), will the stock's next-10-day cumulative return stay positive?

1. Trend and Patterns Analysis: - Past 90 days: Boeing's (BA) closing prices fluctuate between ~$195 and $218, with no strong uptrend or downtrend, though there are multiple oscillations. Recent prices (last 10 days) are slightly down from local highs, suggesting some near-term weakness or consolidation. - Volume: Decreasing overall trend with occasional spikes, indicating intermittent interest. Forecasted 10-day series: - Prices: Projected to move mostly sideways with slight volatility; closing prices start around $200.7, peak at $207.24, then drop back to $199-$201 range. - Volume: Generally lower than historical average, with a spike on day 4 (6641900), possibly due to event/news. 2. Integration of Fundamentals, News, Macro: - Fundamentals: Q1 2023 shows negative operating/net income, negative cash flow, and negative equity. Margins are thin, leverage is high, and Boeing is under financial stress. - Macro: US yield curve is inverted (1M yield 5.79% > 10Y yield 3.46%), signaling economic uncertainty or recession risk. This typically pressures cyclical stocks like Boeing. - News: Mixed. Positive (large Ryanair order), but sector peers (Embraer, Aerojet, Virgin Galactic) show earnings misses or losses. No imminent negative Boeing-specific news, but sector sentiment is neutral to slightly negative. - Forecast rationale: The price forecast reflects macro headwinds, poor fundamentals, and only moderate positive sector news—thus, slight volatility but no strong rally. 3. Technical Indicators: - EMA: 10-day EMA is below 50-day EMA, indicating short-term weakness. - MACD: Recent cross below signal line, showing bearish momentum. - RSI: ~40-45, trending towards oversold but not extreme—mild bearish bias. - Bollinger Bands: Price oscillating near lower band, volatility compressing. - KDJ: D line below J line, signaling weak momentum. - Volume analysis: Lower volumes suggest lack of strong buying interest; one spike could be event-driven. 4. Professional Trader Interpretation: - The forecasted series suggests traders expect little directional conviction—rangebound action, with a slight downward bias due to macro and fundamental concerns. - The yield curve inversion weighs on cyclical stocks; traders may reduce exposure in expectation of weaker economic conditions. - The Ryanair order gives some support, but not enough to overcome macro and financial negatives. 5. Estimation and Reasoning for Cumulative Return: - Next-10-day forecasted cumulative return = (Final price - Initial price)/Initial price. - Start: $201.84, End: forecast range $199.27-$200.87. - Reference to forecast: Prices do not show strong upward momentum and are likely to close lower than today's price. - Macro headwinds (yield curve inversion) and poor fundamentals suggest downside risk outweighs upside, and technicals are mildly bearish. - Estimate: Cumulative return is likely to be negative over the next 10 days; probability of a positive cumulative return is low under these conditions.

No, the stock's next-10-day cumulative return is unlikely to stay positive given the yield curve inversion and current conditions.

macro_fundamental

[ { "date": "2023-05-11", "description": "What Is the Fortune 100?", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2023-05-10", "description": "Air New Zealand will offer bunk beds for four-hour naps on its longest flights Air New Zealand will offer economy-class passengers a chance to lie down for four hours during one of the longest flights in the world. The cost? Under $400.", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2023-05-10", "description": "Embraer (ERJ) Q1 Loss Wider Than Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/Y Embraer's (ERJ) first-quarter revenues improve 53% year over year. The reported figure beats the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.2%.", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2023-05-10", "description": "Aerojet Rocketdyne (AJRD) Q1 Earnings Lag, Sales Rise Y/Y Aerojet Rocketdyne (AJRD) Q1 sales of $566.3 million rise 10.8% from the year-ago quarter's $511.1 million. The top line misses the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.8%.", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2023-05-09", "description": "Virgin Galactic Earnings: A Return To Space, Orbit May Have A Buyer And More Shares of Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (NYSE: SPCE) are flat in after-hours trading Tuesday after the company reported first-quarter earnings. Here’s what investors need to know.\nBy The Numbers: Richard Branson’s space exploration company reported a loss of 57 cents per share, missing the consensus estimate of a 52-cent loss, on revenues of $392,000 against a $1.16-million estimate.\nOn Monday, the company issued a release saying it is planning to send a crew of four mission specialists to space later this month on the Unity's 25th flight, which will act as the final assessment of the full spaceflight system and astronaut experience before commercial services commence in June.\nCheck out ...Full story available on Benzinga.com", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2023-05-09", "description": "Novavax and Palantir rocket higher, while PayPal slumps and other stocks on the move Here are some of the biggest movers of the day.", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2023-05-09", "description": "Wall Street Awaits Economic and Earnings Data Wall Street Awaits Economic and Earnings Data", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2023-05-09", "description": "Boeing Sells 150 Planes, UAA Beats but Lowers A total of 150 new 737 MAX-10 planes have been ordered from Boeing (BA) by its long-time partner Ryanair (RYAAY) .", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2023-05-09", "description": "TransDigm (TDG) Beats on Q2 Earnings, Ups '23 EPS View TransDigm's (TDG) net sales amount to $1,592 million in the fiscal second quarter of 2023, indicating a 20% increase from the prior-year quarter's level. The figure also beats the Zacks Consensus Estimate.", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2023-05-09", "description": "Is This Dark Horse Space Company the Next SpaceX? Relativity Space aims to fill a gap in heavy launch rocket capacity -- but how long will this opportunity last?", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null } ]

financeqa/stock

[ { "content": "<|im_start|>user\nYou are an expert equity analyst specializing in short-horizon (3–10 trading days) stock behavior. You will read the the time series soft tokens and the context.Your task is to answer the question.\n Today is 2023-05-12. The basic information of the stock 'ba' is: Boeing is a major aerospace and defense firm. It operates in three segments: commercial airplanes; defense, space, and security; and global services. Boeing's commercial airplanes segment competes with Airbus in the production of aircraft that can carry more than 130 passengers. Boeing's defense, space, and security segment competes with defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman to create military aircraft, satellites, and weaponry. Global services provides aftermarket support to airlines.. \n\n Today's global macro data are Macro Snapshot:\n- US 1M Treasury yield: 5.79%\n- US 3M Treasury yield: 5.25%\n- US 2Y Treasury yield: 3.98%\n- US 10Y Treasury yield: 3.46%\n- US 30Y Treasury yield: 3.78%\n- CPI (headline): 303.32\n- CPI (core): 307.62\n- PCE price index (core): 119.06\n- PCE personal consumption (nominal): 18.68K\n- Market 5Y breakeven (inflation): 2.16%\n- Market 10Y breakeven (inflation): 2.21%. \n\n The company fundamentals are Fundamentals (Q1 2023):\n- revenue: 17.92B\n- gross profit: 1.92B\n- operating income: -149.00M\n- net income: -425.00M\n- gross margin: 11.00%\n- operating margin: -1.00%\n- net margin: -2.00%\n- operating cash flow margin: -2.00%\n- total assets: 136.35B\n- total liabilities: 151.83B\n- shareholders' equity: -15.48B\n- current ratio: 1.16\n- liabilities-to-equity: -9.81\n- debt-to-assets: 1.11\n- working capital: 15.30B\n- asset turnover: 0.13\n- effective tax rate: 14.00%\n- cash from operations: -318.00M\n- cash from investing: -1.82B\n- cash from financing: -1.68B\n- net cash flow: -3.81B. \n\n The news and potential sentiments are - 2023-05-11: What Is the Fortune 100?\n- 2023-05-10: Air New Zealand will offer bunk beds for four-hour naps on its longest flights Air New Zealand will offer economy-class passengers a chance to lie down for four hours during one of the longest flights in the world. The cost? Under $400.\n- 2023-05-10: Embraer (ERJ) Q1 Loss Wider Than Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/Y Embraer's (ERJ) first-quarter revenues improve 53% year over year. The reported figure beats the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.2%.\n- 2023-05-10: Aerojet Rocketdyne (AJRD) Q1 Earnings Lag, Sales Rise Y/Y Aerojet Rocketdyne (AJRD) Q1 sales of $566.3 million rise 10.8% from the year-ago quarter's $511.1 million. The top line misses the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.8%.\n- 2023-05-09: Virgin Galactic Earnings: A Return To Space, Orbit May Have A Buyer And More Shares of Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (NYSE: SPCE) are flat in after-hours trading Tuesday after the company reported first-quarter earnings. Here’s what investors need to know.\nBy The Numbers: Richard Branson’s space exploration company reported a loss of 57 cents per share, missing the consensus estimate of a 52-cent loss, on revenues of $392,000 against a $1.16-million estimate.\nOn Monday, the company issued a release saying it is planning to send a crew of four mission specialists to space later this month on the Unity's 25th flight, which will act as the final assessment of the full spaceflight system and astronaut experience before commercial services commence in June.\nCheck out ...Full story available on Benzinga.com\n- 2023-05-09: Novavax and Palantir rocket higher, while PayPal slumps and other stocks on the move Here are some of the biggest movers of the day.\n- 2023-05-09: Wall Street Awaits Economic and Earnings Data Wall Street Awaits Economic and Earnings Data\n- 2023-05-09: Boeing Sells 150 Planes, UAA Beats but Lowers A total of 150 new 737 MAX-10 planes have been ordered from Boeing (BA) by its long-time partner Ryanair (RYAAY) .\n- 2023-05-09: TransDigm (TDG) Beats on Q2 Earnings, Ups '23 EPS View TransDigm's (TDG) net sales amount to $1,592 million in the fiscal second quarter of 2023, indicating a 20% increase from the prior-year quarter's level. The figure also beats the Zacks Consensus Estimate.\n- 2023-05-09: Is This Dark Horse Space Company the Next SpaceX? Relativity Space aims to fill a gap in heavy launch rocket capacity -- but how long will this opportunity last?. \n\n The past 90 days' closing prices are [195.39, 203.64, 204.99, 213.0, 208.57, 206.69, 208.03, 214.32, 214.13, 211.41, 209.41, 207.09, 206.76, 209.97, 211.98, 212.68, 212.73, 211.17, 209.67, 213.0, 214.75, 209.34, 206.01, 206.81, 214.76, 213.5, 211.99, 212.89, 215.65, 218.45, 217.44, 212.21, 211.66, 205.52, 205.76, 208.13, 198.15, 200.46, 201.55, 204.55, 210.06, 215.11, 211.92, 207.92, 207.2, 201.24, 203.07, 203.37, 207.28, 198.21, 203.19, 201.05, 204.77, 204.7, 196.16, 197.9, 197.53, 200.57, 204.96, 207.97, 211.04, 212.43, 215.39, 213.9, 210.0, 211.37, 210.78, 212.32, 212.34, 213.59, 201.71, 205.03, 208.37, 208.71, 207.23, 205.15, 205.77, 202.19, 203.03, 206.04, 206.78, 203.87, 203.25, 200.93, 197.05, 198.34, 197.26, 201.88, 200.84, 201.84].<analysis>\nThe forecasted time series for future 10 days' prices and volume for your reference during reasoning:\n Close price: [200.7, 202.77, 200.87, 206.87, 207.24, 205.49, 205.91, 202.6, 199.27, 200.87]\n Low price: [198.82, 198.65, 199.94, 202.71, 204.01, 204.63, 203.9, 202.45, 197.5, 196.6]\n High price: [203.11, 203.32, 202.36, 208.58, 208.17, 208.37, 206.98, 207.49, 201.32, 201.75]\n Open price: [201.84, 200.01, 201.82, 202.71, 206.45, 208.11, 205.51, 204.58, 201.32, 199.99]\n Volume: [3169800, 2842700, 3012100, 6641900, 4349700, 3896200, 3094300, 4011100, 4371600, 3909200]\nPlease reason step by step. Place your reasoning trace between <think> and </think>.\nThen, provide your answer between <answer> and </answer>\nQuestion: If the 1-month yield exceeds the 10-year yield (yield curve inversion), will the stock's next-10-day cumulative return stay positive?<|im_end|>\n<|im_start|>assistant\n", "role": "user" } ]

finance_forecast

{ "ground_truth": { "answer": "No, the stock's next-10-day cumulative return is unlikely to stay positive given the yield curve inversion and current conditions.", "output_dates": [ "2023-05-12", "2023-05-15", "2023-05-16", "2023-05-17", "2023-05-18", "2023-05-19", "2023-05-22", "2023-05-23", "2023-05-24", "2023-05-25" ], "output_prices": { "Close": [ 200.7, 202.77, 200.87, 206.87, 207.24, 205.49, 205.91, 202.6, 199.27, 200.87 ], "High": [ 203.11, 203.32, 202.36, 208.58, 208.17, 208.37, 206.98, 207.49, 201.32, 201.75 ], "Low": [ 198.82, 198.65, 199.94, 202.71, 204.01, 204.63, 203.9, 202.45, 197.5, 196.6 ], "Open": [ 201.84, 200.01, 201.82, 202.71, 206.45, 208.11, 205.51, 204.58, 201.32, 199.99 ], "Volume": [ 3169800, 2842700, 3012100, 6641900, 4349700, 3896200, 3094300, 4011100, 4371600, 3909200 ] } } }

{ "date": "2023-05-12", "index": 0, "question_type": "macro_fundamental", "split": "train", "ticker": "ba", "uncertainty": 0.2314453125 }

{ "Close": [ 202, 202, 202, 201, 201, 201, 203, 205, 207, 207 ], "High": [ 208, 205, 210, 207, 206, 207, 209, 211, 212, 215 ], "Low": [ 196, 196, 196, 194, 195, 196, 199, 199, 201, 201 ], "Open": [ 201, 202, 202, 202, 201, 201, 201, 205, 204, 207 ], "Volume": [ 3358720, 3358720, 3440640, 3440640, 3522560, 3473408, 3457024, 3489792, 3473408, 3506176 ] }

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dltr

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2017-05-22T00:00:00

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{ "end_date": "2017-01-28", "financials": { "accounts_payable": 1119600000, "asset_turnover": 1.32, "cff": -1060500000, "cfi": -483600000, "cfo": 1673300000, "cost_of_revenue": 14324500000, "current_assets": 3938000000, "current_liabilities": 2105900000, "current_ratio": 1.87, "debt_to_assets": 0.66, "effective_tax_rate": 0.33, "eps_basic": 3.8, "eps_diluted": 3.78, "equity": 5389500000, "financing_cf_to_sales": -0.05, "gross_margin": 0.31, "gross_profit": 6394700000, "income_tax_expense": 433200000, "interest_coverage": null, "interest_expense_oper": null, "inventory": null, "investing_cf_to_sales": -0.02, "liabilities_to_equity": 1.91, "long_term_debt": 6391800000, "lt_debt_to_equity": 1.19, "net_cash_flow": 130300000, "net_income": 896200000, "net_margin": 0.04, "ocf_margin": 0.08, "operating_expenses": 4689900000, "operating_income": 1704800000, "operating_margin": 0.08, "pretax_income": 1329400000, "quick_ratio": null, "r_and_d": null, "r_and_d_ratio": null, "revenues": 20719200000, "sga": 4689900000, "sga_ratio": 0.23, "shares_basic": 235700000, "shares_diluted": 236800000, "total_assets": 15701600000, "total_liabilities": 10312100000, "working_capital": 1832100000 }, "fiscal_period": "FY", "fiscal_year": "2017", "start_date": "2016-01-31" }

{ "description": "Dollar Tree operates discount stores across the United States and Canada, with over 8,800 shops under its namesake banner. About 50% of Dollar Tree's sales in fiscal 2024 were consumables (including food, health and beauty, and cleaning products), around 45% variety items (including toys and homewares), and 5% seasonal items. Dollar Tree sells most of its merchandise at the $1.25 price point and positions its stores in well-populated suburban markets. The retailer has agreed to sell Family Dollar (with about 7,000 stores) to private equity investors for $1 billion.", "name": "Dollar Tree Inc.", "ticker": "dltr" }

Given negative operating cash flow (CFO), will the stock's probability of dropping more than 5% in the next 10 days increase?

1. **Analysis of past 90 days & forecasted time series** The past 90 days' closing prices for DLTR show a generally sideways-to-slightly-upward trend with mild volatility. Recent prices have ranged mostly between $75 and $83. The last close is $79.68, and the next 10 days' forecasted closes oscillate in a narrow range ($78.08–$80.92), never dropping sharply. Daily volumes fluctuate, with some spikes (up to ~10M) but typically 2–4M. 2. **Incorporation of full information** - **Fundamentals**: Dollar Tree remains profitable with positive net income and operating income. Gross margin (31%) and operating margin (8%) are healthy for a discount retailer. The current ratio of 1.87 suggests good liquidity, and the company is not distressed. Cash flow from operations is +$1.67B, not negative. - **Macro data**: U.S. yields are moderate, inflation expectations are contained (5Y breakeven 1.75%), and there are no macro shocks indicated. - **News sentiment**: No negative news, no major warnings. The only headline is neutral. - **Forecasted series**: The forecasted prices do not show any sharp drop (>5%); in fact, the lowest forecasted close is $78.08, which is only a 2% drop from the current $79.68. 3. **Technical indicator calculations** - **EMA**: The 20-day EMA is approximately $79.5; prices are hovering around this level—sideways momentum. - **MACD**: The past 90 days’ MACD likely shows minimal divergence, consistent with range trading. - **RSI**: RSI over 14 days would be near neutral (~45–55), indicating no overbought/oversold. - **Bollinger Bands**: Prices are within the bands, not testing upper/lower extremes. - **KDJ/Stochastics**: %K and %D are likely in the middle range, again indicating no strong momentum. 4. **Trader interpretation** The forecasted time series and technicals suggest consolidation, with no evident catalyst for a >5% drop. Volatility is modest, and fundamental/operational strength is supportive. There is no sign of a sudden negative event—either from news, macro, or company fundamentals. 5. **Reasoning to answer the question** The question presumes negative operating cash flow (CFO), but actual fundamentals show positive CFO ($1.67B). If CFO were negative, it could signal operational stress, potentially increasing downside risk. However, with positive CFO, the probability of a >5% drop is not elevated. The forecasted prices do not reflect any sharp downward move. The technicals, trading pattern, and lack of negative news all suggest the probability of such a drop is low. Even if CFO turned negative, in absence of other negative factors (macro, news, technical breakdown), the probability would increase only marginally—not strongly.

No, given the current positive operating cash flow and overall stable conditions, the probability of DLTR dropping more than 5% in the next 10 days is not increased; if CFO were negative, the probability would rise slightly, but not significantly unless accompanied by other negative factors.

macro_fundamental

[ { "date": "2016-11-21", "description": "3 Things to Watch in the Stock Market This Week Keep an eye on Palo Alto Networks, Dollar Tree, and GameStop stocks over the shortened trading week.", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null } ]

financeqa/stock

[ { "content": "<|im_start|>user\nYou are an expert equity analyst specializing in short-horizon (3–10 trading days) stock behavior. You will read the the time series soft tokens and the context.Your task is to answer the question.\n Today is 2017-05-22. The basic information of the stock 'dltr' is: Dollar Tree operates discount stores across the United States and Canada, with over 8,800 shops under its namesake banner. About 50% of Dollar Tree's sales in fiscal 2024 were consumables (including food, health and beauty, and cleaning products), around 45% variety items (including toys and homewares), and 5% seasonal items. Dollar Tree sells most of its merchandise at the $1.25 price point and positions its stores in well-populated suburban markets. The retailer has agreed to sell Family Dollar (with about 7,000 stores) to private equity investors for $1 billion.. \n\n Today's global macro data are Macro Snapshot:\n- US 1M Treasury yield: 70.00%\n- US 3M Treasury yield: 93.00%\n- US 2Y Treasury yield: 1.29%\n- US 10Y Treasury yield: 2.25%\n- US 30Y Treasury yield: 2.91%\n- CPI (headline): 244.00\n- CPI (core): 251.43\n- PCE price index (core): 99.80\n- PCE personal consumption (nominal): 13.17K\n- Market 5Y breakeven (inflation): 1.75%\n- Market 10Y breakeven (inflation): 1.83%. \n\n The company fundamentals are Fundamentals (FY 2017):\n- revenue: 20.72B\n- gross profit: 6.39B\n- operating income: 1.70B\n- net income: 896.20M\n- gross margin: 31.00%\n- operating margin: 8.00%\n- net margin: 4.00%\n- operating cash flow margin: 8.00%\n- total assets: 15.70B\n- total liabilities: 10.31B\n- shareholders' equity: 5.39B\n- current ratio: 1.87\n- liabilities-to-equity: 1.91\n- debt-to-assets: 0.66\n- working capital: 1.83B\n- asset turnover: 1.32\n- effective tax rate: 33.00%\n- cash from operations: 1.67B\n- cash from investing: -483.60M\n- cash from financing: -1.06B\n- net cash flow: 130.30M. \n\n The news and potential sentiments are - 2016-11-21: 3 Things to Watch in the Stock Market This Week Keep an eye on Palo Alto Networks, Dollar Tree, and GameStop stocks over the shortened trading week.. \n\n The past 90 days' closing prices are [77.81, 77.53, 77.13, 79.51, 77.31, 76.26, 76.56, 75.55, 76.88, 76.89, 76.17, 74.05, 75.25, 77.19, 76.39, 77.2, 76.69, 75.12, 75.21, 76.66, 79.39, 78.02, 77.7, 79.8, 78.74, 78.0, 80.0, 79.76, 78.54, 77.57, 79.41, 79.56, 76.68, 76.84, 77.74, 77.13, 75.93, 75.22, 75.6, 75.53, 75.06, 74.58, 74.19, 74.56, 75.53, 75.7, 74.3, 73.44, 73.98, 74.38, 74.92, 76.13, 76.55, 78.51, 79.44, 78.46, 77.72, 77.67, 77.05, 78.05, 77.61, 77.74, 77.08, 77.14, 76.46, 76.83, 77.43, 78.02, 79.57, 78.81, 79.79, 80.69, 81.73, 83.13, 82.77, 80.75, 81.7, 81.92, 81.96, 82.0, 82.29, 82.78, 83.02, 81.49, 81.29, 80.94, 79.1, 78.08, 79.0, 79.68].<analysis>\nThe forecasted time series for future 10 days' prices and volume for your reference during reasoning:\n Close price: [80.92, 78.85, 78.08, 78.8, 78.28, 78.17, 77.7, 80.56, 80.43, 79.28]\n Low price: [79.35, 78.59, 76.72, 76.0, 77.71, 77.82, 76.43, 78.01, 79.85, 78.49]\n High price: [81.1, 80.91, 79.14, 81.0, 80.46, 78.99, 78.38, 80.58, 80.93, 80.34]\n Open price: [79.62, 80.85, 78.86, 76.02, 79.15, 78.08, 78.27, 78.03, 80.49, 80.15]\n Volume: [2126700, 3588300, 4996500, 6420400, 2181500, 1980200, 3429300, 3957000, 1892800, 2324600]\nPlease reason step by step. Place your reasoning trace between <think> and </think>.\nThen, provide your answer between <answer> and </answer>\nQuestion: Given negative operating cash flow (CFO), will the stock's probability of dropping more than 5% in the next 10 days increase?<|im_end|>\n<|im_start|>assistant\n", "role": "user" } ]

finance_forecast

{ "ground_truth": { "answer": "No, given the current positive operating cash flow and overall stable conditions, the probability of DLTR dropping more than 5% in the next 10 days is not increased; if CFO were negative, the probability would rise slightly, but not significantly unless accompanied by other negative factors.", "output_dates": [ "2017-05-22", "2017-05-23", "2017-05-24", "2017-05-25", "2017-05-26", "2017-05-30", "2017-05-31", "2017-06-01", "2017-06-02", "2017-06-05" ], "output_prices": { "Close": [ 80.92, 78.85, 78.08, 78.8, 78.28, 78.17, 77.7, 80.56, 80.43, 79.28 ], "High": [ 81.1, 80.91, 79.14, 81, 80.46, 78.99, 78.38, 80.58, 80.93, 80.34 ], "Low": [ 79.35, 78.59, 76.72, 76, 77.71, 77.82, 76.43, 78.01, 79.85, 78.49 ], "Open": [ 79.62, 80.85, 78.86, 76.02, 79.15, 78.08, 78.27, 78.03, 80.49, 80.15 ], "Volume": [ 2126700, 3588300, 4996500, 6420400, 2181500, 1980200, 3429300, 3957000, 1892800, 2324600 ] } } }

{ "date": "2017-05-22", "index": 1, "question_type": "macro_fundamental", "split": "train", "ticker": "dltr", "uncertainty": 0.224609375 }

{ "Close": [ 79.5, 79.5, 79.5, 79.5, 79.5, 79.5, 79.5, 79.5, 79.5, 80 ], "High": [ 81.5, 82, 82, 82, 81.5, 82, 81.5, 81.5, 81.5, 82.5 ], "Low": [ 78, 77.5, 78, 77.5, 77.5, 77.5, 77.5, 77.5, 77.5, 78 ], "Open": [ 79.5, 79.5, 79.5, 79.5, 79, 79.5, 80, 79.5, 79.5, 80 ], "Volume": [ 2195456, 2211840, 2228224, 2277376, 2293760, 2310144, 2342912, 2342912, 2310144, 2293760 ] }

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2024-03-12T00:00:00

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This is part of the bank's inorganic growth efforts to strengthen its capabilities and fortify presence in key markets.", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2024-03-11", "description": "Should You Invest in the iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF (IAI)? Sector ETF report for IAI", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2024-03-08", "description": "Morgan Stanley (MS) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It Morgan Stanley (MS) has received quite a bit of attention from Zacks.com users lately. Therefore, it is wise to be aware of the facts that can impact the stock's prospects.", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2024-03-07", "description": "Morgan Stanley (MS) Axes China Unit Staff Amid Market Failure Morgan Stanley (MS) lays off 9% of its staff at its asset management business unit in China as the nation witnesses a long-running stock market collapse.", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2024-03-07", "description": "Sell Alert: 3 Overvalued Dividend Stocks And 2 Replacement Buys Semiconductor industry experiences boom-bust cycles due to overproduction and pricing pressure. Read here for 3 overvalued dividend stocks and 2 replacements.", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2024-03-06", "description": "Should Invesco S&P 100 Equal Weight ETF (EQWL) Be on Your Investing Radar? Style Box ETF report for EQWL", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2024-03-06", "description": "Cathie Wood's Ark Invest Is Selling Nvidia Stock and Buying These 2 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks Instead Popular fund manager Cathie Wood has been purchasing shares of Palantir and Pinterest, two companies with growth strategies built around artificial intelligence.", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2024-03-05", "description": "Why Novo Nordisk Stock Tumbled by Nearly 3% on Tuesday The hotly popular European pharmaceutical company continues to investigate how its most popular molecule can be used for different afflictions.", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null } ], "Prices": { "Close": [ 66.87, 67, 69.37, 72.01, 71.69, 71.3, 71.74, 70.06, 71.13, 70.86, 73.95, 75.24, 75.22, 75.81, 75.26, 74.1, 74.12, 74.27, 73.61, 72.6, 74.17, 74.92, 76.38, 76.69, 75.7, 74.99, 75.87, 77.7, 78.21, 78.94, 80.86, 85.97, 86.48, 85.7, 86.8, 86.06, 87.47, 87.26, 87.67, 88.44, 88.42, 88.05, 88.67, 86.79, 87.02, 88.05, 88.3, 86.93, 86.38, 85.47, 84.7, 81.18, 79.71, 79.23, 80.59, 80.95, 81.91, 82.69, 83.12, 82.84, 82.74, 83.55, 83.19, 82.79, 83.22, 81.9, 82.1, 82, 81.67, 81.9, 82.83, 80.07, 80.1, 81.69, 82.48, 81.38, 81.49, 81.86, 82.53, 81.69, 81.52, 82.05, 82.04, 82.46, 85.86, 84.99, 81.68, 82.14, 83, 82.9 ], "High": [ 67.06, 67.9, 69.43, 72.41, 72.48, 71.93, 71.95, 71.83, 71.19, 71.31, 74.56, 75.58, 75.81, 75.96, 75.73, 74.92, 74.48, 74.51, 73.98, 73.14, 75.1, 75.05, 76.47, 76.94, 76.34, 77.21, 76.08, 78.05, 78.22, 79, 81.31, 86.87, 86.72, 86.56, 87.21, 87.17, 87.5, 88.44, 87.84, 88.47, 88.72, 88.55, 88.9, 88.01, 87.95, 88.7, 88.6, 87.67, 86.85, 85.88, 86.78, 83.25, 80.4, 80.25, 80.82, 81.94, 82.01, 83.38, 83.49, 83.57, 83.05, 83.98, 84.63, 84.07, 83.6, 82.56, 82.53, 82.38, 82.22, 82.03, 83.57, 81.87, 81.01, 82.22, 82.76, 82.47, 81.51, 82.71, 83.2, 83.28, 82.43, 82.09, 82.61, 82.76, 87, 86.91, 83.86, 83.07, 84.22, 83.2 ], "Low": [ 66.36, 66.76, 67.66, 70.39, 71.16, 70.76, 70.88, 69.84, 69.92, 70.4, 72.4, 74.13, 74.64, 75.49, 74.92, 73.86, 73.85, 73.7, 73.27, 72.08, 73.03, 73.85, 74.35, 75.6, 75.16, 74.91, 75.18, 75.68, 77.39, 77.97, 78.66, 82.35, 85.23, 85.56, 85.65, 85.86, 86.53, 87.09, 87.22, 87.25, 88.05, 87.88, 87.13, 86.19, 86.55, 86.93, 87.14, 86.55, 86.2, 84.55, 84.45, 80.08, 79.23, 78.64, 78.56, 80.68, 80.44, 82.34, 82.46, 82.77, 80.94, 82.74, 83.18, 81.66, 82, 81.14, 81.64, 81.31, 81.2, 81.36, 81.66, 79.23, 79.8, 80.49, 81.12, 81.15, 80.6, 81.62, 81.97, 81.58, 81.17, 81.32, 81.38, 81.16, 83.48, 84.5, 80.51, 81.66, 82.4, 81.85 ], "Open": [ 66.83, 67.2, 67.69, 70.43, 72.41, 71.63, 71.25, 71.46, 70.5, 70.59, 72.41, 74.19, 75.52, 75.85, 75.57, 74.66, 74.4, 73.9, 73.91, 73.05, 73.16, 74.38, 74.67, 75.68, 76.19, 76.28, 75.32, 75.81, 77.78, 78.32, 78.82, 82.37, 85.93, 86.55, 85.85, 86.36, 87.01, 87.72, 87.45, 87.53, 88.11, 88.28, 87.5, 88.01, 87.02, 87.07, 88.02, 87.58, 86.43, 85.88, 86.19, 81.91, 80.12, 80.1, 79.24, 80.7, 80.9, 82.46, 83.23, 82.98, 82.53, 82.94, 83.63, 83.14, 82.45, 82.56, 81.64, 82.25, 81.7, 81.71, 81.87, 81.87, 80.61, 80.53, 81.55, 81.95, 81.06, 81.96, 82.07, 82.48, 81.98, 81.46, 82.47, 82.21, 83.8, 85.05, 82.74, 82.08, 82.6, 82.79 ], "Volume": [ 8949000, 9429000, 11638000, 14951100, 8140300, 7657700, 8075200, 9497200, 8924000, 4868400, 12287700, 9841600, 6757600, 6080700, 7644600, 7394800, 4265400, 2398000, 5237800, 9197900, 7420700, 8480500, 9617100, 6713800, 6103200, 7321800, 5430400, 10343400, 6378100, 7395300, 10144600, 19849500, 16905700, 9145500, 8114900, 10467000, 7748000, 5800800, 2726200, 4073200, 4089500, 4772100, 6132200, 7487900, 8735600, 6027800, 6738400, 7594100, 6929200, 9400700, 8303100, 20369000, 17198500, 15016400, 14787400, 11626500, 8555700, 12480900, 8792400, 6384400, 7440300, 6569300, 8414700, 8365000, 7728600, 7788700, 7335500, 4952200, 6218200, 5664500, 7888000, 11339400, 5973700, 7993500, 9673900, 6626400, 6444000, 6782100, 5810100, 5608100, 8066700, 5624100, 7657100, 5523700, 19876000, 13883600, 25614600, 9145700, 9689300, 4737200 ] } }, "output": { "Date": [ "2024-03-12", "2024-03-13", "2024-03-14", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-18", "2024-03-19", "2024-03-20", "2024-03-21", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-25" ], "Prices": { "Close": [ 83.01, 85.2, 84.96, 84.27, 83.87, 84.31, 87.11, 89.06, 87.68, 86.91 ], "High": [ 83.68, 86.05, 85.25, 85.2, 84.58, 84.95, 87.23, 89.98, 89.5, 88.25 ], "Low": [ 82.58, 83.2, 84.16, 84.07, 83.63, 83.78, 83.83, 87.69, 87.48, 86.76 ], "Open": [ 83.19, 83.39, 84.86, 84.37, 84.25, 83.91, 83.96, 87.69, 89.17, 87.51 ], "Volume": [ 5110900, 10345800, 9235300, 20363000, 5960000, 8546400, 10811700, 13659900, 5909300, 3670400 ] } } }

{ "cpi": 312.107, "cpi_core": 316.762, "market_10_year": 2.31, "market_5_year": 2.38, "pce_core": 121.829, "pce_spending": 19553.2, "yield_10_year": 4.16, "yield_1_month": 5.52, "yield_2_year": 4.58, "yield_30_year": 4.31, "yield_3_month": 5.48 }

{ "end_date": "2023-12-31", "financials": { "accounts_payable": null, "asset_turnover": 0.05, "cff": -2726000000, "cfi": -3084000000, "cfo": -33536000000, "cost_of_revenue": null, "current_assets": 1193693000000, "current_liabilities": 1093711000000, "current_ratio": 1.09, "debt_to_assets": 0.92, "effective_tax_rate": 0.22, "eps_basic": 5.24, "eps_diluted": 5.18, "equity": 99982000000, "financing_cf_to_sales": -0.05, "gross_margin": null, "gross_profit": null, "income_tax_expense": 2583000000, "interest_coverage": 0.28, "interest_expense_oper": 42051000000, "inventory": null, "investing_cf_to_sales": -0.06, "liabilities_to_equity": 10.94, "long_term_debt": 260544000000, "lt_debt_to_equity": 2.61, "net_cash_flow": -38895000000, "net_income": 9230000000, "net_margin": 0.17, "ocf_margin": -0.62, "operating_expenses": 42330000000, "operating_income": 11813000000, "operating_margin": 0.22, "pretax_income": 11813000000, "quick_ratio": null, "r_and_d": null, "r_and_d_ratio": null, "revenues": 54143000000, "sga": null, "sga_ratio": null, "shares_basic": 1628000000, "shares_diluted": 1646000000, "total_assets": 1193693000000, "total_liabilities": 1093711000000, "working_capital": 99982000000 }, "fiscal_period": "FY", "fiscal_year": "2023", "start_date": "2023-01-01" }

{ "description": "Morgan Stanley is a massive global financial services firm, with offices in 42 countries and more than 80,000 employees as of year-end 2024. The firm cut its teeth in investment banking and institutional trading, where it maintains a strong presence today, but generates the lion share of its income from wealth and asset management franchises, where it boasted $7.9 trillion in client assets at the end of its most recent fiscal year. After reincorporation as a bank holding company in the wake of the great financial crisis, Morgan Stanley also boasts a top 10 banking franchise by deposits, with nearly $400 billion in customer deposits, predominately attributable to cash sweeps from its wealth management and brokerage businesses.", "name": "Morgan Stanley", "ticker": "ms" }

On which day does the first price breakout above today's resistance level occur?

1. **Trend and Patterns Analysis (Past 90 Days & Forecast):** - Past 90 days: MS stock has shown a steady uptrend from ~$67 to a peak around $88, followed by a pullback to ~$82.9 today. - Recent volatility: Notable spikes in both price and volume, especially around days with volumes of 19M+, suggesting periods of heavy trading and possible news-driven moves. - Forecasted next 10 days: Prices are expected to generally move higher, with a notable jump in the 6th and 7th forecasted days (close of 87.11 and 89.06, respectively), and volume spikes particularly on days 4 and 8. 2. **Incorporating Macro Data, News, Fundamentals:** - Macro: US yields remain high, but yield curve is slightly inverted; inflation expectations stable (5Y/10Y breakeven ~2.3-2.4%), suggesting markets are not pricing in major economic shocks. - Fundamentals: MS is strong in wealth/asset management, but concerning negative cash flow and low interest coverage ratio (0.28) could make it sensitive to rate changes and market stress. - News: Mostly neutral to mildly negative (small layoffs in China, trending but not breakout), with no major bullish catalysts. Sector interest is high, but no dramatic sentiment shift. - These suggest MS is resilient but faces some headwinds. 3. **Technical Indicators Calculation:** - **EMA** (e.g., 20-day, 50-day): Both would be sloping upwards given the past 90-day uptrend, but recent prices hovering near the EMA could indicate consolidation. - **MACD**: Likely positive, but histogram shrinking; momentum slowing after the surge. - **RSI**: Likely in the mid-50s to low-60s, not overbought, but with previous peaks possibly near 70 during the run-up to $88. - **KDJ**: %K and %D lines probably crossed down in recent consolidation, but forecasted jump in price would bring a bullish cross. - **Bollinger Bands**: Price recently pulled back to middle or lower band; forecasted prices suggest a move to upper band and possible breakout. - **Volume analysis**: Notable volume spikes (forecasted day 4 and 8) often precede/confirm price breakouts. - **Resistance estimation**: Recent resistance likely at $86-$88 (previous highs). Today's close is $82.9. 4. **Trader Interpretation of Forecasted Time Series:** - The forecast shows prices recovering from consolidation, with a significant upward move starting on day 6 (close $87.11, high $87.23), and a breakout on day 7 (close $89.06, high $89.98). - The resistance level is implied to be ~$86.8 (recent high), so a close and high above this marks a breakout. - Volume surges on breakout days are supportive of the technical move. 5. **Reasoning for the Answer (Estimation):** - Using the forecast as a reference, the first clear breakout above today's resistance ($86.8) would occur when the price closes and/or trades significantly above $86.8 and previous highs. - Forecasted day 6: Close $87.11, high $87.23 — this is the first day above resistance, but barely. - Forecasted day 7: Close $89.06, high $89.98 — this is a definitive breakout, with price moving well above resistance and with confirmation. - Trader logic: A breakout is typically confirmed when the price closes above resistance and is accompanied by higher volume. Day 6 meets the criteria for a breakout, though day 7 is the full confirmation.

Day 6

event_detection

[ { "date": "2024-03-11", "description": "Morgan Stanley (MS) Stock Moves -0.11%: What You Should Know Morgan Stanley (MS) reachead $86.94 at the closing of the latest trading day, reflecting a -0.11% change compared to its last close.", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2024-03-11", "description": "JPMorgan (JPM) Remains Positive About Growth Potential in China JPMorgan (JPM) will continue hiring in the asset management business in China as it seeks growth in the nation.", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2024-03-11", "description": "Huntington (HBAN) Intends to Expand Its Footprint in Texas Huntington (HBAN) plans to expand further into the Texas market. This is part of the bank's inorganic growth efforts to strengthen its capabilities and fortify presence in key markets.", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2024-03-11", "description": "Should You Invest in the iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF (IAI)? Sector ETF report for IAI", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2024-03-08", "description": "Morgan Stanley (MS) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It Morgan Stanley (MS) has received quite a bit of attention from Zacks.com users lately. Therefore, it is wise to be aware of the facts that can impact the stock's prospects.", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2024-03-07", "description": "Morgan Stanley (MS) Axes China Unit Staff Amid Market Failure Morgan Stanley (MS) lays off 9% of its staff at its asset management business unit in China as the nation witnesses a long-running stock market collapse.", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2024-03-07", "description": "Sell Alert: 3 Overvalued Dividend Stocks And 2 Replacement Buys Semiconductor industry experiences boom-bust cycles due to overproduction and pricing pressure. Read here for 3 overvalued dividend stocks and 2 replacements.", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2024-03-06", "description": "Should Invesco S&P 100 Equal Weight ETF (EQWL) Be on Your Investing Radar? Style Box ETF report for EQWL", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2024-03-06", "description": "Cathie Wood's Ark Invest Is Selling Nvidia Stock and Buying These 2 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks Instead Popular fund manager Cathie Wood has been purchasing shares of Palantir and Pinterest, two companies with growth strategies built around artificial intelligence.", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2024-03-05", "description": "Why Novo Nordisk Stock Tumbled by Nearly 3% on Tuesday The hotly popular European pharmaceutical company continues to investigate how its most popular molecule can be used for different afflictions.", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null } ]

financeqa/stock

[ { "content": "<|im_start|>user\nYou are an expert equity analyst specializing in short-horizon (3–10 trading days) stock behavior. You will read the the time series soft tokens and the context.Your task is to answer the question.\n Today is 2024-03-12. The basic information of the stock 'ms' is: Morgan Stanley is a massive global financial services firm, with offices in 42 countries and more than 80,000 employees as of year-end 2024. The firm cut its teeth in investment banking and institutional trading, where it maintains a strong presence today, but generates the lion share of its income from wealth and asset management franchises, where it boasted $7.9 trillion in client assets at the end of its most recent fiscal year. After reincorporation as a bank holding company in the wake of the great financial crisis, Morgan Stanley also boasts a top 10 banking franchise by deposits, with nearly $400 billion in customer deposits, predominately attributable to cash sweeps from its wealth management and brokerage businesses.. \n\n Today's global macro data are Macro Snapshot:\n- US 1M Treasury yield: 5.52%\n- US 3M Treasury yield: 5.48%\n- US 2Y Treasury yield: 4.58%\n- US 10Y Treasury yield: 4.16%\n- US 30Y Treasury yield: 4.31%\n- CPI (headline): 312.11\n- CPI (core): 316.76\n- PCE price index (core): 121.83\n- PCE personal consumption (nominal): 19.55K\n- Market 5Y breakeven (inflation): 2.38%\n- Market 10Y breakeven (inflation): 2.31%. \n\n The company fundamentals are Fundamentals (FY 2023):\n- revenue: 54.14B\n- operating income: 11.81B\n- net income: 9.23B\n- operating margin: 22.00%\n- net margin: 17.00%\n- operating cash flow margin: -62.00%\n- total assets: 1.19T\n- total liabilities: 1.09T\n- shareholders' equity: 99.98B\n- current ratio: 1.09\n- liabilities-to-equity: 10.94\n- debt-to-assets: 0.92\n- working capital: 99.98B\n- asset turnover: 0.05\n- interest coverage: 0.28\n- effective tax rate: 22.00%\n- cash from operations: -33.54B\n- cash from investing: -3.08B\n- cash from financing: -2.73B\n- net cash flow: -38.90B. \n\n The news and potential sentiments are - 2024-03-11: Morgan Stanley (MS) Stock Moves -0.11%: What You Should Know Morgan Stanley (MS) reachead $86.94 at the closing of the latest trading day, reflecting a -0.11% change compared to its last close.\n- 2024-03-11: JPMorgan (JPM) Remains Positive About Growth Potential in China JPMorgan (JPM) will continue hiring in the asset management business in China as it seeks growth in the nation.\n- 2024-03-11: Huntington (HBAN) Intends to Expand Its Footprint in Texas Huntington (HBAN) plans to expand further into the Texas market. This is part of the bank's inorganic growth efforts to strengthen its capabilities and fortify presence in key markets.\n- 2024-03-11: Should You Invest in the iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF (IAI)? Sector ETF report for IAI\n- 2024-03-08: Morgan Stanley (MS) Is a Trending Stock: Facts to Know Before Betting on It Morgan Stanley (MS) has received quite a bit of attention from Zacks.com users lately. Therefore, it is wise to be aware of the facts that can impact the stock's prospects.\n- 2024-03-07: Morgan Stanley (MS) Axes China Unit Staff Amid Market Failure Morgan Stanley (MS) lays off 9% of its staff at its asset management business unit in China as the nation witnesses a long-running stock market collapse.\n- 2024-03-07: Sell Alert: 3 Overvalued Dividend Stocks And 2 Replacement Buys Semiconductor industry experiences boom-bust cycles due to overproduction and pricing pressure. Read here for 3 overvalued dividend stocks and 2 replacements.\n- 2024-03-06: Should Invesco S&P 100 Equal Weight ETF (EQWL) Be on Your Investing Radar? Style Box ETF report for EQWL\n- 2024-03-06: Cathie Wood's Ark Invest Is Selling Nvidia Stock and Buying These 2 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks Instead Popular fund manager Cathie Wood has been purchasing shares of Palantir and Pinterest, two companies with growth strategies built around artificial intelligence.\n- 2024-03-05: Why Novo Nordisk Stock Tumbled by Nearly 3% on Tuesday The hotly popular European pharmaceutical company continues to investigate how its most popular molecule can be used for different afflictions.. \n\n The past 90 days' closing prices are [66.87, 67.0, 69.37, 72.01, 71.69, 71.3, 71.74, 70.06, 71.13, 70.86, 73.95, 75.24, 75.22, 75.81, 75.26, 74.1, 74.12, 74.27, 73.61, 72.6, 74.17, 74.92, 76.38, 76.69, 75.7, 74.99, 75.87, 77.7, 78.21, 78.94, 80.86, 85.97, 86.48, 85.7, 86.8, 86.06, 87.47, 87.26, 87.67, 88.44, 88.42, 88.05, 88.67, 86.79, 87.02, 88.05, 88.3, 86.93, 86.38, 85.47, 84.7, 81.18, 79.71, 79.23, 80.59, 80.95, 81.91, 82.69, 83.12, 82.84, 82.74, 83.55, 83.19, 82.79, 83.22, 81.9, 82.1, 82.0, 81.67, 81.9, 82.83, 80.07, 80.1, 81.69, 82.48, 81.38, 81.49, 81.86, 82.53, 81.69, 81.52, 82.05, 82.04, 82.46, 85.86, 84.99, 81.68, 82.14, 83.0, 82.9].<analysis>\nThe forecasted time series for future 10 days' prices and volume for your reference during reasoning:\n Close price: [83.01, 85.2, 84.96, 84.27, 83.87, 84.31, 87.11, 89.06, 87.68, 86.91]\n Low price: [82.58, 83.2, 84.16, 84.07, 83.63, 83.78, 83.83, 87.69, 87.48, 86.76]\n High price: [83.68, 86.05, 85.25, 85.2, 84.58, 84.95, 87.23, 89.98, 89.5, 88.25]\n Open price: [83.19, 83.39, 84.86, 84.37, 84.25, 83.91, 83.96, 87.69, 89.17, 87.51]\n Volume: [5110900, 10345800, 9235300, 20363000, 5960000, 8546400, 10811700, 13659900, 5909300, 3670400]\nPlease reason step by step. Place your reasoning trace between <think> and </think>.\nThen, provide your answer between <answer> and </answer>\nQuestion: On which day does the first price breakout above today's resistance level occur?<|im_end|>\n<|im_start|>assistant\n", "role": "user" } ]

finance_forecast

{ "ground_truth": { "answer": "Day 6", "output_dates": [ "2024-03-12", "2024-03-13", "2024-03-14", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-18", "2024-03-19", "2024-03-20", "2024-03-21", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-25" ], "output_prices": { "Close": [ 83.01, 85.2, 84.96, 84.27, 83.87, 84.31, 87.11, 89.06, 87.68, 86.91 ], "High": [ 83.68, 86.05, 85.25, 85.2, 84.58, 84.95, 87.23, 89.98, 89.5, 88.25 ], "Low": [ 82.58, 83.2, 84.16, 84.07, 83.63, 83.78, 83.83, 87.69, 87.48, 86.76 ], "Open": [ 83.19, 83.39, 84.86, 84.37, 84.25, 83.91, 83.96, 87.69, 89.17, 87.51 ], "Volume": [ 5110900, 10345800, 9235300, 20363000, 5960000, 8546400, 10811700, 13659900, 5909300, 3670400 ] } } }

{ "date": "2024-03-12", "index": 2, "question_type": "event_detection", "split": "train", "ticker": "ms", "uncertainty": 0.2255859375 }

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{ "mu": [ 80.17822265625, 81.0247802734375, 79.55144500732422, 80.37010955810547, 8658574 ], "sigma": [ 5.552313804626465, 5.582301139831543, 5.50393009185791, 5.508474826812744, 3967480.75 ] }

cmg

[ "2020-02-27", "2020-02-28", "2020-03-02", "2020-03-03", "2020-03-04", "2020-03-05", "2020-03-06", "2020-03-09", "2020-03-10", "2020-03-11", "2020-03-12", "2020-03-13", "2020-03-16", "2020-03-17", "2020-03-18", "2020-03-19", "2020-03-20", "2020-03-23", "2020-03-24", "2020-03-25", "2020-03-26", "2020-03-27", "2020-03-30", "2020-03-31", "2020-04-01", "2020-04-02", "2020-04-03", "2020-04-06", "2020-04-07", "2020-04-08", "2020-04-09", "2020-04-13", "2020-04-14", "2020-04-15", "2020-04-16", "2020-04-17", "2020-04-20", "2020-04-21", "2020-04-22", "2020-04-23", "2020-04-24", "2020-04-27", "2020-04-28", "2020-04-29", "2020-04-30", "2020-05-01", "2020-05-04", "2020-05-05", "2020-05-06", "2020-05-07", "2020-05-08", "2020-05-11", "2020-05-12", "2020-05-13", "2020-05-14", "2020-05-15", "2020-05-18", "2020-05-19", "2020-05-20", "2020-05-21", "2020-05-22", "2020-05-26", "2020-05-27", "2020-05-28", "2020-05-29", "2020-06-01", "2020-06-02", "2020-06-03", "2020-06-04", "2020-06-05", "2020-06-08", "2020-06-09", "2020-06-10", "2020-06-11", "2020-06-12", "2020-06-15", "2020-06-16", "2020-06-17", "2020-06-18", "2020-06-19", "2020-06-22", "2020-06-23", "2020-06-24", "2020-06-25", "2020-06-26", "2020-06-29", "2020-06-30", "2020-07-01", "2020-07-02", "2020-07-06", "2020-07-07", "2020-07-08", "2020-07-09", "2020-07-10", "2020-07-13", "2020-07-14", "2020-07-15", "2020-07-16", "2020-07-17", "2020-07-20" ]

2020-07-07T00:00:00

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{ "end_date": "2020-03-31", "financials": { "accounts_payable": 130423000, "asset_turnover": 0.27, "cff": -102100000, "cfi": -59362000, "cfo": 182071000, "cost_of_revenue": null, "current_assets": 1075501000, "current_liabilities": 665795000, "current_ratio": 1.62, "debt_to_assets": 0.68, "effective_tax_rate": -0.03, "eps_basic": 2.75, "eps_diluted": 2.7, "equity": 1672020000, "financing_cf_to_sales": -0.07, "gross_margin": null, "gross_profit": null, "income_tax_expense": -2524000, "interest_coverage": null, "interest_expense_oper": null, "inventory": 23335000, "investing_cf_to_sales": -0.04, "liabilities_to_equity": 2.11, "long_term_debt": null, "lt_debt_to_equity": null, "net_cash_flow": 19790000, "net_income": 76388000, "net_margin": 0.05, "ocf_margin": 0.13, "operating_expenses": 1339651000, "operating_income": 71121000, "operating_margin": 0.05, "pretax_income": 73864000, "quick_ratio": 1.58, "r_and_d": null, "r_and_d_ratio": null, "revenues": 1410772000, "sga": null, "sga_ratio": null, "shares_basic": 27792000, "shares_diluted": 28323000, "total_assets": 5206488000, "total_liabilities": 3534468000, "working_capital": 409706000 }, "fiscal_period": "Q1", "fiscal_year": "2020", "start_date": "2020-01-01" }

{ "description": "Chipotle Mexican Grill is the largest fast-casual chain restaurant in the United States, with systemwide sales of $11.3 billion in 2024. The Mexican concept is almost exclusively company-owned, with just three license stores operated through a master franchise relationship with Alshaya Group in the Middle East. It had a footprint of 3,726 stores at the end of 2024, heavily indexed to the United States, although it maintains a small presence in Canada, the UK, France, and Germany. Chipotle sells burritos, burrito bowls, tacos, quesadillas, and beverages, with a selling proposition built around competitive prices, high-quality food sourcing, speed of service, and convenience. The company generates its revenue entirely from restaurant sales and delivery fees.", "name": "Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.", "ticker": "cmg" }

Given a stock buyback announcement, will the peak price within the next 10 days exceed today's price by 5%?

Step 1: Analyze Past 90 Days' Data and Forecasted Time Series - Past 90 days show a consistent uptrend from a low near 9.3 to a recent high of 22.52, with increasing prices and occasional pullbacks. - Volume has generally declined as price increased, a typical sign of maturing bullish momentum. - The forecasted 10-day close prices range from 21.78 to 23.27. The highest forecasted price is 23.27. - Today's close is 22.52, so a 5% increase would be approximately 23.65. Step 2: Contextual Factors - Macro: Treasury yields are unusually high in the short-term, but long-term rates are low, suggesting some yield curve distortion and possibly economic uncertainty. Inflation expectations are subdued. - Fundamentals: CMG is fundamentally strong with improving revenue, positive net income, healthy margins, and good liquidity ratios (current 1.62, quick 1.58). The company is cash flow positive, with manageable leverage. - News: Market sentiment in recent months has been generally positive with equities rebounding after March/April volatility. - Buyback Announcement: A stock buyback typically supports the share price through reduced supply and signals management confidence. Step 3: Technical Indicators - EMA(20) and EMA(50): Both would be trending upward given the steady climb in prices. The short EMA is above the long EMA, signaling bullish momentum. - MACD: Likely positive, with the MACD line above the signal line. No clear bearish divergence. - RSI: Estimated near 65-70, suggesting a moderately overbought condition. - Bollinger Bands: Price is near the upper band, indicating strong momentum but also possible resistance. - KDJ: %K and %D both likely high, confirming bullish conditions but with potential for mean reversion. - Volume trend: Lower volume on higher prices may indicate the rally is losing momentum, making large upside moves less likely without a catalyst. Step 4: Trader Interpretation - The uptrend is intact, but price is approaching psychological and technical resistance around the recent highs. - The buyback announcement is a positive catalyst and could spur a test of new highs. - However, the forecasted high (23.27) is slightly below the 5% threshold above today's close (23.65). Technicals suggest momentum, but the overbought RSI and declining volume caution against assuming a strong breakout. - If the buyback is substantial or market sentiment improves further, a spike above 23.65 is possible but not the base case in the forecast. Step 5: Reasoning to Answer - The forecasted high price (23.27) does not exceed 23.65. - Given all factors (trend, technicals, buyback, sentiment), there is a chance of testing the 5% threshold, but the more likely scenario is that the peak price remains slightly below it. - The buyback provides upside risk, but technical resistance and loss of momentum (as evidenced by volume and RSI) temper expectations.

No

news_sentiment

[ { "date": "2020-04-23", "description": "Stocks Recover About 2% After Oil Stabilizes Stocks Recover About 2% After Oil Stabilizes", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null }, { "date": "2020-04-13", "description": "Back-to-Back Gains Help Dow, S&P Soar 12%+ This Week Back-to-Back Gains Help Dow, S&P Soar 12%+ This Week", "sentiment": null, "sentiment_reason": null } ]

financeqa/stock

[ { "content": "<|im_start|>user\nYou are an expert equity analyst specializing in short-horizon (3–10 trading days) stock behavior. You will read the the time series soft tokens and the context.Your task is to answer the question.\n Today is 2020-07-07. The basic information of the stock 'cmg' is: Chipotle Mexican Grill is the largest fast-casual chain restaurant in the United States, with systemwide sales of $11.3 billion in 2024. The Mexican concept is almost exclusively company-owned, with just three license stores operated through a master franchise relationship with Alshaya Group in the Middle East. It had a footprint of 3,726 stores at the end of 2024, heavily indexed to the United States, although it maintains a small presence in Canada, the UK, France, and Germany. Chipotle sells burritos, burrito bowls, tacos, quesadillas, and beverages, with a selling proposition built around competitive prices, high-quality food sourcing, speed of service, and convenience. The company generates its revenue entirely from restaurant sales and delivery fees.. \n\n Today's global macro data are Macro Snapshot:\n- US 1M Treasury yield: 12.00%\n- US 3M Treasury yield: 15.00%\n- US 2Y Treasury yield: 16.00%\n- US 10Y Treasury yield: 65.00%\n- US 30Y Treasury yield: 1.38%\n- CPI (headline): 258.35\n- CPI (core): 267.39\n- PCE price index (core): 104.90\n- PCE personal consumption (nominal): 14.30K\n- Market 5Y breakeven (inflation): 1.31%\n- Market 10Y breakeven (inflation): 1.46%. \n\n The company fundamentals are Fundamentals (Q1 2020):\n- revenue: 1.41B\n- operating income: 71.12M\n- net income: 76.39M\n- operating margin: 5.00%\n- net margin: 5.00%\n- operating cash flow margin: 13.00%\n- total assets: 5.21B\n- total liabilities: 3.53B\n- shareholders' equity: 1.67B\n- current ratio: 1.62\n- quick ratio: 1.58\n- liabilities-to-equity: 2.11\n- debt-to-assets: 0.68\n- working capital: 409.71M\n- asset turnover: 0.27\n- effective tax rate: -3.00%\n- cash from operations: 182.07M\n- cash from investing: -59.36M\n- cash from financing: -102.10M\n- net cash flow: 19.79M. \n\n The news and potential sentiments are - 2020-04-23: Stocks Recover About 2% After Oil Stabilizes Stocks Recover About 2% After Oil Stabilizes\n- 2020-04-13: Back-to-Back Gains Help Dow, S&P Soar 12%+ This Week Back-to-Back Gains Help Dow, S&P Soar 12%+ This Week. \n\n The past 90 days' closing prices are [15.11, 15.47, 15.38, 14.72, 15.4, 14.55, 14.46, 13.16, 14.02, 12.93, 12.06, 12.61, 11.43, 10.49, 9.3, 10.72, 11.32, 11.77, 13.28, 12.99, 13.22, 12.7, 12.8, 13.09, 12.39, 12.6, 12.22, 13.8, 14.09, 14.5, 15.42, 14.88, 15.71, 15.4, 15.73, 16.41, 16.17, 15.73, 17.65, 17.34, 17.65, 17.66, 17.37, 17.65, 17.57, 17.5, 17.5, 17.4, 17.34, 17.95, 18.52, 18.68, 18.6, 18.05, 18.64, 19.43, 19.97, 20.18, 20.6, 20.53, 21.11, 20.34, 19.8, 19.9, 20.08, 20.96, 21.18, 20.99, 20.83, 21.07, 20.98, 20.79, 20.58, 20.01, 19.84, 20.47, 20.64, 20.46, 20.6, 20.22, 21.41, 20.78, 20.96, 20.98, 20.66, 20.92, 21.05, 21.37, 21.13, 22.52].<analysis>\nThe forecasted time series for future 10 days' prices and volume for your reference during reasoning:\n Close price: [22.18, 22.29, 22.31, 22.36, 21.78, 22.06, 22.67, 22.59, 22.72, 23.27]\n Low price: [22.1, 22.14, 22.11, 22.02, 21.74, 21.35, 22.09, 22.25, 22.45, 22.95]\n High price: [22.91, 22.66, 22.66, 22.37, 22.81, 22.1, 22.71, 22.66, 22.78, 23.39]\n Open price: [22.39, 22.38, 22.6, 22.21, 22.64, 21.78, 22.52, 22.48, 22.73, 23.0]\n Volume: [21460000, 15925000, 14390000, 10945000, 18210000, 13365000, 16605000, 12085000, 13760000, 21015000]\nPlease reason step by step. Place your reasoning trace between <think> and </think>.\nThen, provide your answer between <answer> and </answer>\nQuestion: Given a stock buyback announcement, will the peak price within the next 10 days exceed today's price by 5%?<|im_end|>\n<|im_start|>assistant\n", "role": "user" } ]

finance_forecast

{ "ground_truth": { "answer": "No", "output_dates": [ "2020-07-07", "2020-07-08", "2020-07-09", "2020-07-10", "2020-07-13", "2020-07-14", "2020-07-15", "2020-07-16", "2020-07-17", "2020-07-20" ], "output_prices": { "Close": [ 22.18, 22.29, 22.31, 22.36, 21.78, 22.06, 22.67, 22.59, 22.72, 23.27 ], "High": [ 22.91, 22.66, 22.66, 22.37, 22.81, 22.1, 22.71, 22.66, 22.78, 23.39 ], "Low": [ 22.1, 22.14, 22.11, 22.02, 21.74, 21.35, 22.09, 22.25, 22.45, 22.95 ], "Open": [ 22.39, 22.38, 22.6, 22.21, 22.64, 21.78, 22.52, 22.48, 22.73, 23 ], "Volume": [ 21460000, 15925000, 14390000, 10945000, 18210000, 13365000, 16605000, 12085000, 13760000, 21015000 ] } } }

{ "date": "2020-07-07", "index": 3, "question_type": "news_sentiment", "split": "train", "ticker": "cmg", "uncertainty": 0.181640625 }

{ "Close": [ 22, 22, 21.75, 21.75, 21.75, 22.375, 22.5, 22.25, 22.625, 23 ], "High": [ 23.25, 25.25, 22.125, 23.75, 25.375, 23.75, 24.625, 24, 23.625, 25.875 ], "Low": [ 21.375, 20.25, 19.875, 20.625, 20.5, 21.125, 20.125, 20.5, 21.125, 20.125 ], "Open": [ 22.625, 22.375, 22.125, 21.625, 22.25, 21.75, 22.75, 22.375, 22.625, 23.125 ], "Volume": [ 25296896, 24641536, 23592960, 22413312, 27787264, 25034752, 23724032, 21626880, 19660800, 17825792 ] }

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ccl

["2024-06-12","2024-06-13","2024-06-14","2024-06-17","2024-06-18","2024-06-20","2024-06-21","2024-06(...TRUNCATED)

2024-10-21T00:00:00

{"input":{"Date":["2024-06-12","2024-06-13","2024-06-14","2024-06-17","2024-06-18","2024-06-20","202(...TRUNCATED)

{"cpi":315.564,"cpi_core":321.688,"market_10_year":2.29,"market_5_year":2.23,"pce_core":123.595,"pce(...TRUNCATED)

{"end_date":"2024-08-31","financials":{"accounts_payable":1062000000.0,"asset_turnover":0.16,"cff":-(...TRUNCATED)

{"description":"Carnival is the largest global cruise company, with more than 90 ships in service. I(...TRUNCATED)

If a merger rumor spreads, will you predict volume doubling within 10 days?

"1. **Trend and Pattern Analysis of Past 90 Days and Forecasted Time Series:**\n- The closing price (...TRUNCATED)

Yes, if a merger rumor spreads, volume will likely double within 10 days.

news_sentiment

[{"date":"2024-10-15","description":"If I Could Only Buy 2 Stocks in the Last Half of 2024, I'd Pick(...TRUNCATED)

financeqa/stock

[{"content":"<|im_start|>user\nYou are an expert equity analyst specializing in short-horizon (3–1(...TRUNCATED)

finance_forecast

{"ground_truth":{"answer":"Yes, if a merger rumor spreads, volume will likely double within 10 days.(...TRUNCATED)

{"date":"2024-10-21","index":4,"question_type":"news_sentiment","split":"train","ticker":"ccl","unce(...TRUNCATED)

{"Close":[21.25,21.25,21.25,21.25,21.25,21.25,21.25,21.25,21.25,21.25],"High":[21.75,22.125,21.75,22(...TRUNCATED)

[[0.01077293511480093,-0.017341868951916695,0.5155147910118103,0.009966107085347176,-0.0036317645572(...TRUNCATED)

[[-0.0032887039706110954,-0.0018779347883537412,-0.022517310455441475,0.0046882410533726215,-0.01181(...TRUNCATED)

[[16.75,17.030000686645508,16.700000762939453,16.739999771118164,25555900.0],[16.68000030517578,16.7(...TRUNCATED)

[[21.25,21.3799991607666,21.030000686645508,21.280000686645508,17595600.0],[21.170000076293945,21.55(...TRUNCATED)

{"mu":[17.33300018310547,17.645557403564453,17.027999877929688,17.343223571777344,29865972.0],"sigma(...TRUNCATED)

gs

["2024-02-14","2024-02-15","2024-02-16","2024-02-20","2024-02-21","2024-02-22","2024-02-23","2024-02(...TRUNCATED)

2024-06-25T00:00:00

{"input":{"Date":["2024-02-14","2024-02-15","2024-02-16","2024-02-20","2024-02-21","2024-02-22","202(...TRUNCATED)

{"cpi":null,"cpi_core":null,"market_10_year":null,"market_5_year":null,"pce_core":null,"pce_spending(...TRUNCATED)

{"end_date":"2024-03-31","financials":{"accounts_payable":null,"asset_turnover":0.01,"cff":717100000(...TRUNCATED)

{"description":"Goldman Sachs is a storied financial institution, founded in 1869 and best known for(...TRUNCATED)

"Will a higher operating margin (above 0.5) correspond to lower predicted volatility over the next 1(...TRUNCATED)

"1. Trend and Pattern Analysis: \n- The past 90 days show a strong uptrend in GS's stock, rising fr(...TRUNCATED)

Yes

macro_fundamental

[{"date":"2024-06-24","description":"US Bank Stress Tests This Week, Analyst Expects Improvement: 8 (...TRUNCATED)

financeqa/stock

[{"content":"<|im_start|>user\nYou are an expert equity analyst specializing in short-horizon (3–1(...TRUNCATED)

finance_forecast

{"ground_truth":{"answer":"Yes","output_dates":["2024-06-25","2024-06-26","2024-06-27","2024-06-28",(...TRUNCATED)

{"date":"2024-06-25","index":5,"question_type":"macro_fundamental","split":"train","ticker":"gs","un(...TRUNCATED)

{"Close":[452.0,452.0,452.0,456.0,456.0,456.0,456.0,460.0,460.0,460.0],"High":[462.0,466.0,466.0,466(...TRUNCATED)

[[0.59196937084198,-0.15969005227088928,0.26734787225723267,-0.04027373716235161,-0.0005603496683761(...TRUNCATED)

[[-0.005716707091778517,-0.010260144248604774,-0.19038714468479156,0.01455933041870594,-0.0013625958(...TRUNCATED)

[[368.20001220703125,368.7799987792969,363.2699890136719,365.4599914550781,2041300.0],[366.790008544(...TRUNCATED)

[[450.0199890136719,454.54998779296875,447.3699951171875,447.9800109863281,1555900.0],[446.049987792(...TRUNCATED)

{"mu":[410.91156005859375,415.03143310546875,407.7759094238281,411.4222106933594,2249272.25],"sigma"(...TRUNCATED)

mrna

["2022-07-05","2022-07-06","2022-07-07","2022-07-08","2022-07-11","2022-07-12","2022-07-13","2022-07(...TRUNCATED)

2022-11-09T00:00:00

{"input":{"Date":["2022-07-05","2022-07-06","2022-07-07","2022-07-08","2022-07-11","2022-07-12","202(...TRUNCATED)

{"cpi":298.708,"cpi_core":300.316,"market_10_year":2.37,"market_5_year":2.44,"pce_core":116.554,"pce(...TRUNCATED)

{"end_date":"2022-09-30","financials":{"accounts_payable":330000000.0,"asset_turnover":0.13,"cff":-1(...TRUNCATED)

{"description":"Moderna is a commercial-stage biotech that was founded in 2010 and had its initial p(...TRUNCATED)

Within the next 10 days, will the highest close occur before the lowest low?

"1. **Trend and Patterns Analysis:**\n- Past 90 days: MRNA had significant volatility, with price sw(...TRUNCATED)

Yes, the highest close will occur after the lowest low within the next 10 days.

event_detection

[{"date":"2022-11-07","description":"8 Analysts Have This to Say About Moderna Analysts have provide(...TRUNCATED)

financeqa/stock

[{"content":"<|im_start|>user\nYou are an expert equity analyst specializing in short-horizon (3–1(...TRUNCATED)

finance_forecast

{"ground_truth":{"answer":"Yes, the highest close will occur after the lowest low within the next 10(...TRUNCATED)

{"date":"2022-11-09","index":6,"question_type":"event_detection","split":"train","ticker":"mrna","un(...TRUNCATED)

{"Close":[166.0,167.0,167.0,167.0,166.0,166.0,167.0,167.0,168.0,168.0],"High":[170.0,174.0,172.0,171(...TRUNCATED)

[[-1.546755075454712,-0.22729536890983582,-0.702588677406311,-0.021207675337791443,-0.00699400948360(...TRUNCATED)

[[-0.01290103793144226,-0.00854132417589426,0.11803216487169266,0.03976022079586983,-0.0052832164801(...TRUNCATED)

[[148.66000366210938,158.7899932861328,146.83999633789062,155.5399932861328,6013700.0],[154.50999450(...TRUNCATED)

[[162.5,169.8300018310547,162.35000610351562,163.2100067138672,3813800.0],[164.52000427246094,169.27(...TRUNCATED)

{"mu":[146.98277282714844,151.3308868408203,143.48123168945312,147.33233642578125,4938501.0],"sigma"(...TRUNCATED)

kmi

["2022-08-25","2022-08-26","2022-08-29","2022-08-30","2022-08-31","2022-09-01","2022-09-02","2022-09(...TRUNCATED)

2023-01-04T00:00:00

{"input":{"Date":["2022-08-25","2022-08-26","2022-08-29","2022-08-30","2022-08-31","2022-09-01","202(...TRUNCATED)

{"cpi":null,"cpi_core":null,"market_10_year":null,"market_5_year":null,"pce_core":null,"pce_spending(...TRUNCATED)

{"end_date":"2022-09-30","financials":{"accounts_payable":1579000000.0,"asset_turnover":0.07,"cff":2(...TRUNCATED)

{"description":"Kinder Morgan is one of the largest midstream energy firms in the US, with an intere(...TRUNCATED)

"Will a higher operating margin (above 0.5) correspond to lower predicted volatility over the next 1(...TRUNCATED)

"1. **Trend and Pattern Analysis (Past 90 Days & Forecasted Series):**\n - The past 90 days show K(...TRUNCATED)

"Yes, a higher operating margin (above 0.5) would correspond to lower predicted volatility over the (...TRUNCATED)

macro_fundamental

[{"date":"2023-01-03","description":"Kinder Morgan (KMI) Stock Moves -0.39%: What You Should Know Ki(...TRUNCATED)

financeqa/stock

[{"content":"<|im_start|>user\nYou are an expert equity analyst specializing in short-horizon (3–1(...TRUNCATED)

finance_forecast

{"ground_truth":{"answer":"Yes, a higher operating margin (above 0.5) would correspond to lower pred(...TRUNCATED)

{"date":"2023-01-04","index":7,"question_type":"macro_fundamental","split":"train","ticker":"kmi","u(...TRUNCATED)

{"Close":[15.4375,15.4375,15.4375,15.4375,15.5625,15.5625,15.5625,15.5,15.625,15.5625],"High":[16.0,(...TRUNCATED)

[[0.057406067848205566,-0.5654217004776001,0.15306483209133148,-0.005354595370590687,-0.000432701519(...TRUNCATED)

[[-0.008455335162580013,0.012230600230395794,0.14371350407600403,0.008282939903438091,-0.02068593539(...TRUNCATED)

[[16.280000686645508,16.299999237060547,16.1200008392334,16.260000228881836,11863600.0],[16.31999969(...TRUNCATED)

[[15.3100004196167,15.760000228881836,15.3100004196167,15.630000114440918,12069700.0],[15.5399999618(...TRUNCATED)

{"mu":[15.28144359588623,15.44911003112793,15.091666221618652,15.269222259521484,17320628.0],"sigma"(...TRUNCATED)

rl

["2022-05-25","2022-05-26","2022-05-27","2022-05-31","2022-06-01","2022-06-02","2022-06-03","2022-06(...TRUNCATED)

2022-10-04T00:00:00

{"input":{"Date":["2022-05-25","2022-05-26","2022-05-27","2022-05-31","2022-06-01","2022-06-02","202(...TRUNCATED)

{"cpi":null,"cpi_core":null,"market_10_year":null,"market_5_year":null,"pce_core":null,"pce_spending(...TRUNCATED)

{"end_date":"2022-07-02","financials":{"accounts_payable":562100000.0,"asset_turnover":0.21,"cff":-7(...TRUNCATED)

{"description":"Founded by designer Ralph Lauren (current executive chairman and chief creative offi(...TRUNCATED)

Will the lowest intraday price in the next 10 days drop below current support levels?

"1. Analysis of past 90 days' trend and forecast:\n- The past 90 days' closing prices for RL show a (...TRUNCATED)

No

event_detection

[{"date":"2022-09-21","description":"AmEx (AXP) Makes Amex HK Mobile App Enticing With Benefits Amer(...TRUNCATED)

financeqa/stock

[{"content":"<|im_start|>user\nYou are an expert equity analyst specializing in short-horizon (3–1(...TRUNCATED)

finance_forecast

{"ground_truth":{"answer":"No","output_dates":["2022-10-04","2022-10-05","2022-10-06","2022-10-07","(...TRUNCATED)

{"date":"2022-10-04","index":8,"question_type":"event_detection","split":"train","ticker":"rl","unce(...TRUNCATED)

{"Close":[83.5,83.5,83.0,82.5,82.0,81.5,81.5,82.0,81.5,83.0],"High":[87.0,87.0,86.0,87.0,85.0,84.5,8(...TRUNCATED)

[[-2.974458932876587,1.0713744163513184,-1.4849622249603271,0.0026748257223516703,-0.000460938405012(...TRUNCATED)

[[0.02748117968440056,0.05480337142944336,0.04727691039443016,0.0,-0.03171154484152794],[-0.01415172(...TRUNCATED)

[[83.61000061035156,90.30000305175781,83.3499984741211,87.19000244140625,1777400.0],[89.290000915527(...TRUNCATED)

[[84.4800033569336,86.81999969482422,84.11000061035156,86.81999969482422,1007000.0],[85.599998474121(...TRUNCATED)

{"mu":[88.7695541381836,90.32843780517578,87.31099700927734,88.89767456054688,1017561.0625],"sigma":(...TRUNCATED)

bk

["2024-05-23","2024-05-24","2024-05-28","2024-05-29","2024-05-30","2024-05-31","2024-06-03","2024-06(...TRUNCATED)

2024-10-02T00:00:00

{"input":{"Date":["2024-05-23","2024-05-24","2024-05-28","2024-05-29","2024-05-30","2024-05-31","202(...TRUNCATED)

{"cpi":315.564,"cpi_core":321.688,"market_10_year":2.29,"market_5_year":2.23,"pce_core":123.595,"pce(...TRUNCATED)

{"end_date":"2024-06-30","financials":{"accounts_payable":null,"asset_turnover":0.01,"cff":-74130000(...TRUNCATED)

{"description":"Bank of New York Mellon is a global investment company involved in managing and serv(...TRUNCATED)

Within the next 10 days, will the highest close occur before the lowest low?

"1. Trend and Patterns Analysis:\n- Past 90 days: BK stock has shown a strong uptrend from a low nea(...TRUNCATED)

No

event_detection

[{"date":"2024-09-27","description":"United States Alternative Lending Business Report 2024: Market (...TRUNCATED)

financeqa/stock

[{"content":"<|im_start|>user\nYou are an expert equity analyst specializing in short-horizon (3–1(...TRUNCATED)

finance_forecast

{"ground_truth":{"answer":"No","output_dates":["2024-10-02","2024-10-03","2024-10-04","2024-10-07","(...TRUNCATED)

{"date":"2024-10-02","index":9,"question_type":"event_detection","split":"train","ticker":"bk","unce(...TRUNCATED)

{"Close":[69.5,69.5,70.0,70.5,70.5,70.0,70.0,70.0,70.0,70.0],"High":[72.0,72.0,72.0,72.5,73.5,72.0,7(...TRUNCATED)

[[0.8691731095314026,0.03610147163271904,0.3877944052219391,-0.025704437866806984,0.0006894978578202(...TRUNCATED)

[[-0.0008639309671707451,-0.0021612283308058977,0.01959395408630371,0.007186003960669041,-0.00607640(...TRUNCATED)

[[57.209999084472656,57.209999084472656,56.36000061035156,56.56999969482422,2554900.0],[56.799999237(...TRUNCATED)

[[69.41999816894531,69.83000183105469,68.91000366210938,69.33000183105469,5251700.0],[69.26000213623(...TRUNCATED)

{"mu":[62.23033142089844,62.7685546875,61.72077941894531,62.29022216796875,3943880.25],"sigma":[4.42(...TRUNCATED)