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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yeah. Let me make a couple of comments. Bob, you can add to it. I mean -- I think overall the RPO business is outstanding for us. I mean, if you look over quarter-on-quarter over the last several years and it's no -- it's not short of impressive. I mean, it's outstanding. And, overall, if you look at the way the business operated here in the cycle and Bob -- Bob talked about it, what we saw was exactly the thesis that we've been talking about where search was the most cyclical. Consulting was less cyclical than Search and RPO was less cyclical than Consulting and Digital was less cyclical than RPO. So clearly the RPO business, it begins and ends with quality, with talented people. And the other thing is embedding our IP into our RPO engagements and whether that's success profiles or talent architecture. I think that's also proven to be a winning formula. So I look at the RPO business and say, yeah, there is clearly some puts and takes quarter-on-quarter, but the trend, the trajectory is breathtaking over time.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Sure, Sharon. This is Chris. Yes, that question there, we're not releasing any subscription numbers just yet. But what we're seeing in some trends there, as I mentioned in my opening remarks, is seeing about the same trend we saw from the free content consumption is that the PF+ subscription at $5.99, about 20% of those are non-Planet Fitness members, and about 25% of those have gone on to join bricks-and-mortar and keep their PF+ even after that, which is a great sign, as we talk about our gateway to bricks-and-mortar. Also, we're seeing about 75% of all the subscriptions to date are actually current Black Card members. And many of them have been members for two, three, four years and actually opting to pay more for something else, which is a great sign, I think, for us, especially when we talk about the passes there, a situation where you wrap in the PF+ and a bundle for the Black Card and maybe get a little bit more price or acquisition for the Black Card.
So just a lot of learnings around that piece of it. As far as the broader, more marketing push around the PF+, we've taken this time to really just figure out what content people are consuming the most, what trainers they like the most, what's really driving the consumption and who people are really taking to, so we know who to market to and what to market. So real-time learning going on with it, but I like the trends that we're seeing with it as we continue to evolve the content and release more stuff in the app real-time.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yes. I mean I think it's a combination to what Scott said and that the Dallas deal I think we could definitely leverage the communities that we have in that submarket. Same thing in Charlotte, it's within a seven-minute drive of our community that we already had in that market, but we really feel like these are typically direct relationships and we're getting a slight discount in the market to take up, what we feel, is minimal lease-up risk. So that's where we think most of it's going to be driven from.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
All right. The PDD. Right. Yeah, excellent question.
So the CTAD was really focused on the dementia portion of the study, the dementia portion of the PDD study. What is now -- will come up and we will present that in a proper fashion, either at a conference or in a peer-reviewed form or in a webinar or that fashion. We will provide the entire data of all the other measures of the CDR system which are many more than the ones presented at CTAD, which also was a very short time frame of presentation of only 10 minutes, so we have to factor that in and it will also include the actigraphy data and other data related to Parkinson's disease. So this will be something which we are also planning to present on a relatively short notice.
And so in order to have that full picture of PDD and the same applies here, this data, this aggregated data will be put in front of the FDA and to seek guidance in order to design a pivotal study in PDD.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yeah. Yeah. So, I would say, Mike -- first off, there's a different dynamic, as you pointed out, in emerging countries versus mature countries. And a big piece of our business is in emerging countries because that's where most of the babies are around the world. So, I think one of the beauties of H.B. Fuller is the level of diversity of our business. So while the Hygiene business is one of our biggest ones, it still makes up maybe about 10% to 12% of our business. And if birth rates are off versus standard rates 1% to 2%, it's really a small impact on the overall company.
So, is the Hygiene team managing it? Yes. And then, as you point out, baby diapers are one part of that business, but there's also adult care businesses, which are growing and then the feminine product business, which is growing nicely around the world as economies mature. So the short answer is, for the overall H.B. Fuller, it's a 1% or 2% of 10% to 12% of our business is the impact, so relatively small.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
So yeah, sure, Shannon. That's a great question. I mean the first thing I would say is as our focus right now is on what we call our extended capital, and that extend capital is you know how we continue to grow in our businesses. And a lot of the growth that we're experiencing right now really comes from the investments we've made the last couple of years from the extend capital in addition to the build capital and we'd expect that -- we've got a lot of extend capital that we're putting in place right now, and that's going to continue to support our growth going forward.
Given our More Corning trends and our innovation model and the opportunities that we see out there that really gives us a chance to perform much better than the underlying market, I'm sure at some point we will be back at looking at build capital and when we do that you know we'll do that with real customer commitments, including financing. So we think this is a great model to run our business with. It's really improved our capital efficiencies, it's improved our return on invested capital and I think from a shareholder standpoint, this is a great way to run our businesses.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
I think generally, Alan, as we said earlier on the call, there is a -- it's hard to understate how much interest there is in fiber-to-the-home right now. So if you think about the rural markets, you think about the number of change of control transactions or significant strategic investments that have been made in rural operators, as well as the large programs like the program that AT&T you've talked about or Frontier. And so at least my sense is that the industry is coalescing around the view that this stuff is important and it's valuable. So that doesn't mean customers won't go up and down or rethink strategies, but in that case that particular customer has been added now for seven or eight years my -- and in sheer speculation is that they are obviously more comfortable with it today as they have been operating the business for a period of time than they might have been three or four years ago.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Well, I mean, remember, what we're buying is high-quality, grocery drug-anchored assets. So from a vacancy perspective, you really aren't getting what you've seen in other segments of retail. So that's sort of where you start in terms of answering your question where there is some fractional vacancy due to the pandemic, but you're not seeing the higher vacancy that you would see in other segments of retail. So that -- so from a vacancy perspective, that's really when you're looking at buying today, again, there is additional vacancy, but it's just not that dramatic. Rich, do you want to comment on the growth side?[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Good morning and thanks for taking the questions. Robert, just wanted to follow back up on investment, and I'm just sort of thinking about your balance sheet here relative to peers. You're already more than a turn better than all your large cap peers, and frankly I can see a scenario by 2024 this is a net cash business and a $200 billion market cap Company. So you have unprecedented levels of financial leverage on the balance sheet.
In recent weeks, we've actually seen some of your competitors get more aggressive on growth-oriented M&A, and we haven't heard much of that conversation this morning. So what are your thoughts on growth-oriented M&A this year to supplement that pipeline? And should investors be thinking about tuck-in growth-oriented M&A because you certainly have the capacity to do something more transformative. And then I have a quick follow-up.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yeah. Good morning -- good afternoon, everybody. I'm interested to hear what maybe some of your B&I clients are saying to you about their plans to get people back into the office? And I'm thinking more particularly about how clients are planning their future office locations? How they configure their space? And you mentioned, I think you said Munch Mail, can you expand maybe about how clients plan to use that and whether they are thinking maybe about hybrid models where you've got some people on-site, some people off-site, but they provide some kind of foodservice between those two groups?[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
I won't provide guidance, but I think I would just say that's a bit high.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
It was EBITDAR coverage.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Okay. Thank you, operator. We don't have any more formal remarks. And I just want to thank everybody on the call for their time and their interest in BXP. Thank you.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Mark, we point to $6.68, right.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Hey, Kyle. Good morning, it's Dave. I won't answer the question really in terms of spreads, if you will, because as you know, what we -- the market we're at, looking to buy companies, right. So what I'd say is, not much change, to be honest, because we think of it more around enterprise value of companies that we're looking to buy. And I'm saying pre-COVID multiples for good companies, not great companies, good companies was pushing seven times trailing EBITDA. We're seeing, frankly, that same sort of environment, in fact, even some elevated multiples. And the trickier part, frankly, is that a number of companies that went through COVID, some did very, very well, relatively speaking. Others, obviously, did not do as well. So the thing you've got to really look through are what's called COVID adjustments, which are financed way into EBITDA, so that's really the tricky part. But having said all of that, I'd say, generally, from an enterprise value perspective and therefore, the challenge we have on looking to buy a business, the multiples are still fairly high and really requires some rigor in seeing how you ultimately get a return on it. That helps.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Thanks, Balaji. Thanks for those questions. On the Sterile Injectable front, we are -- in terms of the launches we have planned for 2021, we're not going to comment on anything specifically, but we will have a combination of products that would be more traditional pay rate [Phonetic] of vials, but also introducing some products that are more ready to use, starting to reflect that transition we're making from an overall portfolio perspective.
In terms of just general commentary you've asked for, I think on the Sterile Injectable and pricing trends. Again, depending on what product we're speaking to and what the pricing trend is for that product really has to do with the competitive landscape. And so we are -- when we think about the more traditional pay rate of vials, we are seeing on certain products increased competition which is somewhat normal. And then as we move forward, again our focus is going to be on what we consider to be more differentiated products, where we think there will be a bit more of durability and pricing power in the market going forward. And then I'll let Patrick comment for you on the Qwo question and how the use of that may or may not evolve over time.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
15% down.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Good morning.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yes. Good morning. Chris, you've guided to $7.9 billion for shipbuilding revenues in Q3. And obviously, a round up a lot higher than that. In a business that's pretty predictable, can you tell us what happened to give you that much stronger growth than what you expected?[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yeah. So this is Doug Chambers. So they did a transition quite a bit in 2020. There is still more to go. Sprint comprises currently about 20% of the roaming traffic. We don't expect all that to go away. Some transitioning over to T-Mobile's network, other will be subject to roaming agreements we have with them as a carrier. So, we are projecting roaming revenue in total to go down from 2020 to 2021, and that is one of the larger components of that.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Sure. Yes. Sure, Richard. The difference is in the $130 million to $150 million, those are acquisitions that have closed.
They're part of AdaptHealth today, and we included them in our guide as such. The $200 million is really -- we're working to give some visibility to expectations for acquisitions. None of that is included other than this $130 million to $150 million that is already part of AdaptHealth.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Sure. Ken, you want to take that?[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yes. So I think in the second quarter, the percentage of COVID admissions to overall admissions had dropped into the sort of mid-single digits. I think throughout the pandemic, our average has been more like the low double digit, 12%, 13%. And I think at its peak in, let's say, January of 2021 or the first half of January 2021, we were at that maybe 20% of our admissions were COVID.
Our COVID volumes today are similar to what they were a year ago in the sort of June, July time frame from a year ago, which, again, I would suggest we're in sort of the low double-digit percentage, 10%, 11%, 12% of our overall admissions. So not near the peak of where we were in January, but either close to or exceeding where we were in the second wave last summer.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
So it varies, of course. So that is regarding what we call the backlog of orders.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
That is correct.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Thank you. I wonder if I could just follow up a little bit on some of the kind of the changes or additions you're making to the sales and marketing organization? I'm just curious, what type of person do you target to add given how unique your model is? And maybe just a follow-up to that. What has really been the biggest gating item to the new sales efforts that you face thus far in the non-PACE markets? And what can you do to kind of address some of those obstacles?[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Good morning guys. Just two quick questions for me. The first would be, and I'm not sure if you can answer this, but you've done a lot of people moves in the last year and some high-quality hires. Just wondering, are you changing at all the strategy for how the various regions operate. Is there more decentralized going forward with more levels of management? Or maybe you could just provide a little bit of color there.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Thanks.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Well, we actually believe there's been some destocking in the first quarter, just because of some of the constraints that we've had. But when you look at, any pre-buy we normally limit to a month of production.
So there's always a pre-order, I would say that we're seeing. And that's part of our backlog. And our surge right now is that, you had April orders that were already put in by our customers in the first quarter.
Then of course, you have June that just came up and people are getting in line and place the orders for that increase. So, there is always an order pull forward that we have to work through. And again, we'll work through that most of the second quarter and into the third quarter and help to be -- have that part of it behind us, as we get through July and August.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
There's going to be a lot of moving parts this year with e-commerce facing the comps and it's not just you. So what do you think is the best way to measure your progress this year as we think about it, is it market share versus e-commerce spend? And what specific milestones if GMV matches your outlook, should we be looking for that really show you're making progress this year. Thank you.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Well, I've got -- our order books are very strong, Alex. To the extent that we can hire people, we're going to put them to work and meet the growing needs of our customers. I would look at it this way, kind of going back to what we talked about earlier. I mean, I think we've been very effective in hiring. When you look at domestically which you read in the headlines about the challenge with the labor market, I mean, we're up 14% in our headcount year-over-year. So we've been very good at recruiting and retaining people. And what we are doing for our customer base is making those investments and the commitments to do that. To go into the market, it's -- again, it's not as easy as just saying you need people, you got to really got to recruit them into the business. And so I think we're doing a good job. We will continue to do that, and we'll probably be talking about hiring and labor for the next 12 months, and that's a really good sign. It tells you that our order books are full, and we need to build more products.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Thank you, operator. Pat and team, good morning everybody. Pat, you guys have a lot of support obviously from the whole shipping and rail-related community for this merger. Has any of that support surprised you? And then, when you look at the potential revenue synergies down the road since you guys have announced this transaction, has there been anything that popped up that wasn't expected that could be a potential bonus for investors?[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
We will have to add primarily on the front end. I can't go into details, but I could say that from a packaging standpoint, we already have enough capacity. We are expanding as we speak, but we will have -- that's the easier to do because of small -- shorter lead times. But it's the back end of -- I'm sorry, the front end where we are significantly expanding capacity in preparation for substantial growth, not only next year, for the next several years.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yeah. I'll comment on the pipeline. We typically do not project bed additions, either on the rehab hospitals or on the critical illness recovery hospitals. We will probably institute a practice of announcing new hospitals when they open.
And we also often announce significant joint ventures when signed, and we will do that. I will say that our pipeline is, I think, as good as it's ever been. We have a strong pipeline of deals, and we expect to add some new partners. And when we do sign those and add them, we will announce them at that time.
But I feel very good about the pipeline and feel good about growing on the inpatient segment, both critical illness and rehab, as well as doing some fold-in acquisitions on the outpatient side and some de novo.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Hi, thank you. Good morning. I think my question is for Kevin and Kevin. And I'm going to use annual numbers to explain what I'm looking at here, which is expected profit growth in Canada and Asia. So when I look at 2018 in Canada, 5% expected profit growth. That accelerated to 10% in 2019, and now 14% in 2020. When I look at Asia, the opposite trend it was at 17% in 2018, fell to 6% in 2019 and now below 4% in 2020.
So the question is, are these trends expected to continue in terms of growth of EPIF? What caused it? But more to the point, what I'm looking for really is a general view on expected profit growth for each of these business lines in 2021 and beyond? Thanks.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yes. Yes, good observation. Yes, the -- with the disposition of Cariflex, overall margin slightly declined as we've always been indicating that. So that's why that $1,000-plus is more like in the ZIP code of $900 now.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yeah, thanks for taking my question. Lori, in the prepared remarks, you had indicated the 2023 goals where we're likely going to come in around -- or in 2022. Can you just clarify whether that is inclusive or exclusive of Santoprene and if it's really just a reflection of kind of the current markets and your comfort in the demand fundamentals or if it does include the M&A?[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yes. Matt, as discussed previously, we believe that the best metric to assess our performance is trailing four quarters' net dollar retention rate. We disclosed stand-alone back in Q2 only as a onetime disclosure to illustrate the COVID impact. And from now on, we'll be focusing only on trailing four quarter net dollar retention.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yeah, Jade, I think we've been working on pretty diligently trying to work through the short-term assets. A couple sold in the quarter, a couple sold post quarter. Actually some of the ones that we've spent a lot of time and a lot of management resources getting prepared for sale. So we're delighted to see those go. We got small parcels of land, some operating properties. You see in the deck, one of the long-term -- larger long-term assets. So we're making good progress across all fronts on that. It's been a time-consuming process. So each one that sells is a good day for us. We still got more to go but the team continues to work on those assets. Really at the end of our two-year plan, we think Asbury and Magnolia Green are the only two relevant assets. Asbury had another good quarter. Magnolia had another good quarter. So now they're tracking. They just happen to be on a longer lead time monetization schedule. So I think you'll see us continue to move through those short-term assets in the next 18 months. And then we'll have done a lot of good work at Asbury and Magnolia to put those on the same track longer term.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Thanks, Scott.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yes. Cadence is clearly going to change that, hopefully, before we get to the end of the year.
But our CECL model is our CECL model. And so we're going to do what it tells us to do.
The answer to your question about where we are from an opportunity standpoint and can we go back to where we were?
I think that's really dependent upon the forward-looking economic environment that's out there because that's really what's driving the model.
So on a forward-looking economic environment coming into last year when we changed to CECL, things were looking pretty good until about 30 days or 45 days into the year when things all of a sudden changed pretty dramatically.
And we could get back to that looking-pretty-good situation. So I think that you're -- I don't know that I have a direct answer for you, but there's opportunity there for us. We would like to grow into what we have. But clearly, we're going to follow what the model tells us to do[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
It's hard to decompose it at that level. I mean what we can see in device universe that consumers have in their home, they continue to buy more devices, a lot of it's related to home office trends, home health trends, home hygiene trend. So you're seeing devices increase in the home-related to those items. Certainly toys, gaming controllers, obviously, plays a role in it as well. But we haven't provided sort of our internal device surveys on how are those broken down. There is page in the Investor Day deck from two November's ago, where we provided that and we can send that to you if it's helpful.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
No, no. At this point in time, the portfolio we need to handle is the one we have on our site, on our application, our omnichannel platform. That doesn't mean that we could not cross-sell on each other's. But we haven't had those detailed discussions yet, OK?[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Thanks so much for taking the question. I'll just ask one, international that came in stronger than we had forecasted. You have this interesting array of countries that are in sort of various states of recovery or it's still in the midst of the pandemic. Any sense of consumer behavior across your array of international assets, what do you think that might tell you about how the business might operate as we go through 2021 and 2022? Appreciate the color. Thanks guys.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
If there are no further questions, on behalf of our entire management team, we appreciate you listening to and interest in the call today. Mary Anne and I are available today to answer any direct questions that we did not cover, that we're allowed to answer under Regulation FD, Reg G and applicable securities laws in Canada. Thank you, again. We look forward to speaking with you at upcoming virtual investor conferences or on our next earnings call. Thank you.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Sure. So we definitely saw an acceleration from COVID, not necessarily overall impact on the financial statements specifically for COVID. Our revenues tend to track the work that's ongoing in the industry. So if it was a priority for our clients, it was a priority for us.
We did see some surge of work in the second quarter at the early stages of COVID, but we don't expect a major impact and expect it going forward to kind of follow the trend of investment in R&D in the biopharmaceutical industry. William, anything to add?[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Thanks. Can you remind us of the company views on expanding in the new markets and if there's any off limits? And then assuming you are open extend in the new markets. How do you determine whether or not to utilize the JV partner?[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Hey, Andrew. Hey, Blake. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe a couple of quick ones from me.
First on Apex, you talked about obviously layering in mobile growth. I guess if we think about just the base game this year, do you expect growth in the base game, maybe just driven by the full year of the launch on Apex? Any color there. Secondly, as it relates to Battlefield, I don't know if you can maybe give us any context as to how you're thinking about that in the fiscal '22 guidance maybe relative to prior precedent for the game. Again, any color there.
And then just lastly, I'm not sure if you'd be willing to bite, but on any developments or progress you'd be willing to talk about as it relates to maybe the out-year pipeline in several of the titles that you've disclosed and discussed in the past.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yes. Perfect. Thank you, Ernesto.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
It's really normal seasonal patterns, so driven by the timing of when we release our supplier payments. So you can see some lumpiness in that outflow from quarter to quarter. On a normalized basis, nothing's really changed in our working capital cycle, really just the effect of timing of when we released the large supplier payments. So we see about a $34 million outflow there in Q1.
And the offset is a good collection cycle, right, on the receivables side. And note that Q4 is a seasonal kind of peak for us, right? And so you build up some receivables there and start to collect on that in future quarters. But nothing for me to call out, nothing of concern. They're very much normal cycle Q1 trends.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yes. Thank you, Sung Ji. So what we did is we collaborated with an academic institution to use 559 patients, 229 of which were hospitalized with COVID-19, and created an AI-based algorithm that highlighted multiple patient characteristics, vital signs and readily available laboratory test values. The machine learning algorithm was then accurately able to predict and highlight which patients would need to be admitted to the ICU.
So it truly is an AI-based algorithm assay, and we're continuing to work and collaborate with that not named academic institution on opportunities to expand this and commercialize it so it can be more readily available.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Trent, J.D., anything else to add? Great. Thanks, John.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yeah, this is Peter, Andrew. Yeah, the multifamily component was right at a $1 million of that total as we look to be at a successful quarter of gain on sale and sales activity. And what we're seeing in general in that business unit is a renewed demand for our products, both from a credit and pricing perspective, the demand has really resumed to full pre-pandemic roles. And so we continue to see very strong buyer demand for that product going forward. So the real -- the drivers of that line item quarter-to-quarter really the pace of new originations in the consummation of the sales which can be lumpy depending on the timing and execution dates of those sales. But overall, that line of business has resumed to its full pre-pandemic levels.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
So I think the positive view is with commodity prices going up, typically, that would indicate that things are going to be good on the Industrial side of our business. And obviously, we've got great incremental margins on the Industrial side. What we saw in 2020 was the Contractor growth really [Indecipherable] organization lower overall margins and really pressure on Process, Industrial on the top line, created some challenges for us on the operating margin. So I think as you see Industrial and Process pop back, you're going to see those 40% plus kind of incremental operating margins that are going to drive nice profitability for Graco.
I'd really like to see those in the high-single digits, which would not be unusual at all for recovery. We see recovery in the past, getting high-single-digit growth out of our Industrial businesses has been something that we've seen. I think it's more of a question about when and if I expect it to come back, but I just don't know exactly when, obviously. Short-term, we're looking positive and we like that, but I think there is still some uncertainty the next half year or so here.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Hey. Thanks, Chris. We watch that closely. Obviously we have our eye on the supply chain and material costs. We've done a really nice job in the past on offsetting that with price and other activities within operations. So, we always look at that as somewhat of an opportunity for price increases and we're pretty effective there. So we haven't seen it at this point, but certainly we're watching that closely and we'll react as that occurs.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
| UP |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Good morning, everybody. Did the NOLs that you're building right now have any impact on the math on taking 33 airplanes, if you're not going to need the tax shelter from accelerated depreciation that you would normally get if you're running the business sort of focused on sort of cash management?[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yes, it's more elevated. The answer is somewhere in between. If you remember, last year we started targeting $450 million to $500 million for capex. Well, again, one of the areas we were a little bit cautious on was projects last year. And with COVID and pressure on resources, we had to reprioritize some things last year. And the net effect of that was a little bit less capex in '20 and that capex pushing into '21. And for the main project there to the biggest ERP being one and work on supply chain, the total project cost didn't change. And so, it's shifted more into '21 and therefore, you can imagine some shifted into '22 as well.
And so, but this year is unusually high. I think we're going to see elevated capex sort of above our long-term algorithm, probably through '23 and '24 and we're going to talk a little bit more about that in CAGNY in a few weeks, we'll give some more color on capital and where it's headed. But I would expect an elevated level for the next couple of years before we get back down to what's inside of our algorithm.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Right. And previous years once like that.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yeah. I mean, it's probably -- for the level we're at right now, it's probably OK. I mean, as rule -- clearly there is a lot of other things in play in terms of productivity and turnarounds and all of those things, but its certainly indicative.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
| UP |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yes, Steve. It's Steve. We don't -- we believe that the reduction in channel inventory was mainly Q1. What we've seen in April, we haven't seen further work down in the inventories that are expected.
It's all done by that.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Thanks, Alex.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
| UP |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yeah. I mean, the market continues to be very strong. And we don't see -- as it relates to the credit assets, we're seeing an improvement in economy, certainly, as people get vaccinated and more things open up. So we would anticipate better performance across credit assets in the short term, for sure, especially with the amount of liquidity that's coming from the government into the system.
And so we will continue to see credit assets perform very well. The interest rate market is something that we have to get a sense for given the size of government requirements in the second quarter, it remains to be seen where that takes us in rates over the next three to six months.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Sure. And just to be clear, it's for all CEPI grantees, which includes Bio E. as well.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
| UP |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Sorry, John, the next product generation technology and sort of what area that's we...[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Hey, great.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yeah. I don't know what is most appropriate, because the macroeconomic environment will dictate that. But I can say that the best reference point for us and for CECL model, in a way was when we entered on day one allowance, right, and we entered the 2020 with right around 1% ACL to total loans. So that in my mind is kind of the reference point that where you start with. But certainly, where we go from here will be dictated by the macroeconomic outlook.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yeah.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Well, thank you Fernando for your questions. Well, starting with the second one, I expect the EBITDA margins for the second quarter will be more normalized even in the lower part of that of the normalized EBITDA margin and that is because of the cost of the raw materials. In the near future, we don't see any price reduction in the corn and soybean meal prices. So that has going to be put some pressure in the margins. And in terms of supply and demand here in Mexico for the rest of the year, well, we have been very disciplined in terms of cover just the requirements of our customers. We are very, very close to our customers to meet their needs.
And, with a very, very disciplined tracking of their consumption and our production hours and our supply we are just keep very, very close to the met -- to the -- to our customers, and to the market, in general, to see what is effects and -- for the demand side, trying to read that demand very closely. And because we have our projection for almost 13 weeks because of the period of barring the bird in farms, the incubation period, things like that, we know that in the second half is going to be tough because of the demand, because of that seasonality. But with our discipline in our production, I think we can just maintain that -- try to maintain that balance between supply and demand.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Brian, you want to -- do you have any color on that?[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yeah. So, it is -- it is two things, Kyle. It is very much that EBITDA that goes away, offset obviously by the gain that we saw, but we also are experiencing the inflation that you're hearing about gas [Phonetic] all throughout the country, and likely, globally. Higher parts expense for us is forecasted in the second half of the year. Lube oil expense, in addition to the higher commodity price, you're seeing some shortages frankly and availability of lube oil and lubricants in the US, which is driving it to really what was the equivalent of sort of a $100 oil price, previously. So we're dealing with that, and after labor and parts, that's our third highest cost. And then, again on labor, which is in fact our largest cost, we're starting to see some pressures in certain basins, particularly the Permian, which you would expect. We're, I think, seeing that inflation happen faster than we're going to be able to pass some of that through and so that's really what's leading to the lower forecasted gross margin for the second half.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
No, not that I'm aware of.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yes, Dave, good question. From the prior round of PPP, we saw demand bounce back actually very quickly. I think a lot of these small businesses are deep in the hole, and PPP certainly helps. But it's mostly for payroll and doesn't go much beyond that in terms of rent or building up inventory and those kinds of things. So I think the key for small businesses, as I mentioned in my comments, is the economy continue to open up, which there's a lot of encouraging signs as I also mentioned, states continue to open up more and more and allowing retail businesses or small businesses to open up further. And I think that's going to be the biggest driver, especially now that PPP is largely wound down. These businesses have not been operating at full capacity. They've not been fully stocked up. They've deferred maintenance. They've deferred rent. And as the economy improves and consumers begin shopping at the small businesses, again, they're going to need to ramp up quickly, and we think is going to kind of spur a pretty strong demand for credit.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yeah. It's Mark again, Pamela. Twelve percent was the number I think in the script -- the scripted comments in terms of how much of our business is on e-commerce. It definitely skews toward pet, and then coffee would be a second, not a close second but second.
And again, you know, thinking of e-commerce as both pure-play, as well as the click-and-collect model, we continue to focus on the profitability of that business through price pack architecture and things like that. But do not expect that consumers will return to brick-and-mortar purchases for those who have already made the migration to e-commerce. We believe that that migration is here to stay.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
So there is not a change of control trigger. That means they would definitely come back to us. With respect to what might happen, I think there are a lot of possibilities for what might happen. But I'm confident that these programs are going to move forward because we do see C3 and CFB as very interesting targets to move forward. So it is conceivable that there won't be any change in the relationship. It's also conceivable that there will be some sort of rejiggering, and we'll just have to work with our friends at Alexion, and I expect after Q3, it will be friends as well to figure out what the path forward is. And there may be a change. But I think both programs are very likely to proceed along their time lines and enter the[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Bose, on Page 10, that is the mortgage banking table. I just want to make sure I'm looking at the right one you're referring to. Because mark-to-markets are on the investment portfolio. On the mortgage banking, we're just backing out the -- this is the amortization of our purchase intangibles for the business purpose mortgage banking operations there.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
| UP |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
I want the process to unfold with the next meeting and I want to respect that process. So, my hope would be to make significant progress by the end of the year, but I do want to respect the process and that just simply mandates something.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
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[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yes, Alex, thank you for that question. What we desire with the potential of a Moody's rating is continued optionality and by having both an investment grade rating from Moody's and S&P, it provides us greater opportunity to the debts of public capital markets and as you know today bond pricing is quite attractive and many of our activities during the course over the past six months, since the establishment of AIR have been leading us toward the path of providing that optionality, most notably an increase in our pool of properties that are unencumbered by debt, and it has increased by 50% just in the past six months.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
| UP |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yeah, specifically in the high-income space, and we call it high income for a very specific reason so that it has the flexibility to use other instruments and to be flexible to take advantage of stress in the marketplace. And I think both the flexibility of security type and the asset -- the allocation process in the portfolio has given Brya and team the degrees of freedom to produce the results versus the peers. He is also taking that skill set of looking across Credit Opportunities as well as being able to enhance security selection with Credit Opportunities and that has got us into more of the private vehicle and credit alternative space.
And we want to be able to save room for enhancing those skill sets and we expect to continue into the private funds and we would expect to see more performance-based or carry interest in strategies of the future. And as we look at our Credit franchise, we see more breadth and the number of strategies in the space the Credit team would go versus just a pure high-yield strategy that tend to be very narrow and can take more dollars, but it also happens at a lower fee rate. We prefer the ability to manage capacity to deliver alpha, manage our fee rate, and be able to expand in the new strategies and aggregate. We believe the present value of that opportunity is much greater than playing into a bulge strategy in a very narrow space that have fee pressure and it ends up being a competition for scale and the lowest fee rate.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
| DOWN |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yeah, Kyle. Certainly, expecting they'll move up in the second quarter and for the full year, we usually don't go out that far, but they could be up close to 50% over last year's average, something in that ballpark is what it seems like right now.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
| UP |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
We always monitor the market, right. But based on where the model is, we're looking more toward '22. And we'll have the B, will become current at the end of '22, mature in '23. So, that would be a catalyst for us looking at the markets very intently in '22. But that doesn't rule out that we'll continue to monitor the marketplace. As we all know, it's much stronger now than any of us anticipated.
When we did the refinancing, obviously, we were right on the issues relative to the pandemic and the election disruptions. And while we missed it, it was on just the amount of capital that would be available in the marketplace and the markets functioned as well as they did.
So, we did that specifically. We did the refinancing in 2020 specifically to give us the time to mature the model, to show growth in the model, to get some movement out of the rating agencies to make refinancing more attractive. So, certainly, that should happen by the end of '21 and early '22, but we'll monitor it all the way through. And the catalysts, as I said before, is the Term Bs, which are very attractive from a rate perspective, going current in the back half of '22 and then maturing in '23.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
| DOWN |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yes, I think OEMs are doing a better job of trying to provide you information about what their intentions are, or what they want to build further out to help with this issue of planning. The problem is that so far that information hasn't been very useful because it's too optimistic. And unfortunately, the supply base can't support those levels. So as much as every day -- like I mentioned, the communication is improving. Unfortunately, it hasn't really turned into reality yet. But I think in the next 12 months or so, that will start to turn the corner and the information is being provided will be quite useful.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
| UP |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
On the mortgage side, usually, there's a slowdown in the fourth quarter, but we've actually seen a record month in number of applications. So it's very robust in Texas. And about 65% of what we're seeing is purchased versus refi. So I think we're going to continue to see some pretty strong demand in the short-term here. Interest rates are going to remain low in some areas. Probably any slowdown would be from lack of inventory.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
| DOWN |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yes. Sure, Reuben. First, I think it's nice to see that in the first quarter of this year, we do see the -- some of the fruits and the outcomes of the early buds of the execution of our strategy. And we do see it in a number of markets. We are launching a few growth engines this year, and we are on the journey to introduce more and more of those growth engines as the year progresses. As for the two countries you mentioned, we do see -- or we are experiencing some nice market recovery in Australia, where you see growth on constant currency basis and local currency, and we are performing quite well in Australia. As for Israel, we just ended the latest lockdown in January and to the fact that -- as the holiday was coming a bit earlier this year, we have experienced a bit softer Q1. We are -- we believe that some of it will be offset during the year.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
| UP |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yeah. Thanks, David.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
| DOWN |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Hi, guys. Thank you for taking my question. I have a bit of a maybe a nitty-gritty question, but I hear you talk about your supply constraints. And at the same time, you beat your guide and you guide above expectations.
So if you have supply constraints that get you to beat expectations every quarter, I'd really love to have you being constrained for as long as possible.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
| UP |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Hey. Daniel, one technical question and then one for Tim. Daniel, so how might the IOS 14.5 update with IDFA impact the company's ability to collect data from the phone. I know that's been part of the strategy in the past.
And how important is phone data versus the information that customers provide you in the onboarding flow? And then, Tim, thanks for the new metrics around retention. I think Shai said that 7 points of the recent 11-point increase was from bundling products. Is that mostly the story or is there something else that's driving up that retention rate? And I think the definition is a little different than what was in the S-1. Could you just bridge the difference between the recent disclosed retention and the S-1 retention? Thanks a lot.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
| DOWN |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
We think if there's one integrated delivery to our customers. So we really aren't breaking those out at the moment. I think that is probably the key thing because it's not sizable enough to be broken out of segment. So I think it's a due level of the complex as a whole.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
| UP |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
That's for General Liability.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
| DOWN |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yeah. Less than a fifth of last year.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
| UP |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Sure. We're winning approximately three quarters of the mandates for our new payments and cash management platforms. That business banks, banks were serious about the business banking franchise. Generally banks sub-scale in size, although there can small banks that are focused on business banking and we are the clear leaders. You can see IAT's list reports, but the market really supports that. So, our win rate there is fabulous.
As we move if you wanted that answer for payments and cash lifecycle platform, we're way to where we went out in market, actually we're announcing that this is where we're going. But I'd expect we'd have a real strong win rate with existing customers, because we're already there. We are already trusted innovation partner. So, that's really what gives us kind of loaded odds, if you will, entry into a broader market. We're expanding from a core. We're not entering receivables or entering treasury independent of the existing capabilities and known vendor status we have and enjoy today.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
| DOWN |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Thank you, Eric, for the question. Janet?[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
| UP |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Thanks, good morning.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
| DOWN |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Yes. I think, Vijay, at the highest level, we probably see each franchise being roughly in that range. Some may be a little bit faster. And we don't see dramatic changes year-over-year. It's not front-end loaded, it's not back-end loaded. So we're not ready to give formal-formal year-by-year guidance. Let's wait until our November call when we give our 2022 guidance. But I think our underlying belief is, as you well know, those are growth rates better than we were coming in. And we always said when COVID struck, we're going to emerge as a stronger, faster-growing company. And we feel like this is exactly what we see for each of the businesses going forward.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
| UP |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
All right. Pull that up, Chris.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
| DOWN |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Brannon, you want to take it?[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
| UP |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Good.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
| DOWN |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Thank you, Shaun.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
| UP |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Well, look, I think we've come to time, so I want to thank everyone for joining our call today. Before we end, I just want to leave you with some closing thoughts. We're very pleased with our fourth quarter and total year results and believe they further illustrate the strength of the Baker Hughes' portfolio as we execute on our margin and returns objectives and evolve our company within the energy landscape.
We continue to execute on our strategy of becoming an energy technology company with the three strategic pillars of transform the core, investing for growth and positioning for new frontiers in areas like CCUS, hydrogen and energy storage. We're committed to executing the strategy, while prioritizing free cash flow generation and returns. And again, I just want to thank you for taking time and look forward to speaking to you all again soon. Operator, you can close the call.[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
| DOWN |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
Thank you, Andy, for your three questions. So I suggest that Alban is answering the first and the third one. And Scott, that you will take the second one. So the first one was on the company -- holding company liquidity, knowing that we'll only publish that once a year at the full year. Second one was on the exposure development in reinsurance, for Scott. And third one, on the Hong Kong reinsurance transaction. And are there any further potential transactions, Alban. Alban, why don't you start with one and three, and Scott takes two afterwards?[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): UP
| UP |
[INST] <<SYS>>You are a financial analyst, predicting which direction the stock price will go following this answer from the Q/A section of an earnings call. Be as critical and skeptical as possible. Respond with UP or DOWN<</SYS>>
I don't think it's a -- I think -- I don't think it's a new structural level of profitability. I think that these evolutions in a year happened in our industry from time to time just related to the way that the corn cycle has moved in this particular case and the way our business model tends to operate, but we are right now related to inflationary increases that everyone is experiencing, moving up prices where we can now, even pre-contracting and certainly when you have inflationary increases in freight and manufacturing costs, that's an example right now of where our operating model allows us to pass through the majority of freight increases, and we're doing that right now passing those on in accordance with our contract terms. In addition, when it comes to other inflationary type inputs of chemicals and packaging, contracting will address that and we intend to pass those through in pricing this year. But right now, it's early obviously to talk about 2022 contracting term.
Jim, do you want to comment?[/INST]
Direction (UP or DOWN): DOWN
| DOWN |